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_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
going to stop after I hit 1000 and possibly do a different theme..less plays which I admittedly struggle with
tampa
R3 #6 port salerno (8-1) 10WP
R5 #1 fire fist (15-1) 10W
R5 #7 lodi (10-1) 10W*
* 2 horses
R2 #5 reign showers (8-1) maiden special
first time starter homebred with a big pedigree..with empire maker being the sire like that they're going 7f..tim hamm who we've been talking about a lot lately with these types
gulfstream
R4 #4 feather's secret (8-1) 10WP
santa anita
R1 #1 moana (21-1..26 mtp) 10WP
R9 #8 capital call (8-1) maiden special
R10 #11 desert swarm (4-1) 15WP
churchill..(fast now)
R10 #2 portrait (4-1) 15W
..
R3.. 3rd @ 6-1 R5.. out @ 22-1 R5.. out @ 5-1
R4.. out @ 7-1
R1.. out @ 31-1 R10.. out @ 4-1
R1.. out @ 3-2
145/30
risk $810 /return $413
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
this graded specialty sample will end today mercifully.. my feeling about these types of races hasn't changed and just a bad run.. going to take a breather from specialty threads for a week and try something different the following week
churchill
R1 #9 tap n sway (12-1) 10WP
she's this ml because of the trainer and not her pp's
R2 #5 heart river (4-1) 25W
churchill (must be on turf)
R4 no grade msw race
#9 leftatthealter (10-1)
kind of sprint line I like as a setup to stretch out.. attracts jose ortiz
#1 sista of war (12-1)
4 race career as a 2yo
debut ellis park fine.. tough trip at kentucky downs and can always forgive races there anyway.. even trip all the way around at keeneland with nice figure improvement.. off the turf on the front end of a lightning fast pace and gave it badly by the half.. also first time blinkers were on and they'll be back off today
R8 #1 prince of arabia (4-1) not rated.. love turf marathons so weighing in
if you transplant the race he ran vs grade 3 in the mcknight, as bad as it looks, it's a much better figure than you'd need here (137-1) he ran that race 2nd off a layoff stretching out from a middle distance race (like today)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
this graded specialty sample will end today mercifully.. my feeling about these types of races hasn't changed and just a bad run.. going to take a breather from specialty threads for a week and try something different the following week
churchill
R1 #9 tap n sway (12-1) 10WP
she's this ml because of the trainer and not her pp's
R2 #5 heart river (4-1) 25W
churchill (must be on turf)
R4 no grade msw race
#9 leftatthealter (10-1)
kind of sprint line I like as a setup to stretch out.. attracts jose ortiz
#1 sista of war (12-1)
4 race career as a 2yo
debut ellis park fine.. tough trip at kentucky downs and can always forgive races there anyway.. even trip all the way around at keeneland with nice figure improvement.. off the turf on the front end of a lightning fast pace and gave it badly by the half.. also first time blinkers were on and they'll be back off today
R8 #1 prince of arabia (4-1) not rated.. love turf marathons so weighing in
if you transplant the race he ran vs grade 3 in the mcknight, as bad as it looks, it's a much better figure than you'd need here (137-1) he ran that race 2nd off a layoff stretching out from a middle distance race (like today)
R1 off turf no play
R2 out @ 25-1
R3.. out @ 7-1
R8 off turf no play
130/0
risk $940/ return $416
total ass kicking.. staying away for at least a week
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
going to post the minor tracks today and tomorrow but going to stay away from the big ones wednesday to sunday.. the above tracking sample is done.. i said I would go to at least 1000 risked and that's close enough.. obviously bad results but it's not a big sample.. spells like that are part of it and unavoidable
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
drops and back in 12 days.. two back dropped and back in 12 days and solid 2nd with bad trip.. both times came out of races that were significantly faster than needed today
R3 #3 valentine guy (8-1)
R4 #12 zipporah (20-1)
I understand this is a bad post but a morning line like this tells me whoever does this has little respect for the public's ability to dig a little .. hope she does go off at that price
R5 #6 lazarella (8-1)
R6 #6 bow and arrow (8-1) SCRATCH
this ml high.. broberg 3rd off the layoff, even spacing between races and feel can sit a nice trip off an honest pace.. oaklawn to here a significant drop-off in talent but admittedly others in here's last race is also from there
R6 #4 drifting west (7-2..20 mtp)
R7 #4 haley's heist (4-1)
another dropper from oaklawn.. last race bad but we need a little camouflage and looks like some excuses.. possible this is a hurting horse but if not and they're OK with taking a little loss from the claim this is a good spot.. trainer excellent with new acquisitions
R8 #5 my legacy (5-1)
i think may have reacted to the big effort at oaklawn two back.. good to see him back quick.. lightly raced and very capable vs this bunch
R9 #7 inagoodway (9-2)
last time in a statebred stakes 5 starts back won at remington.. obviously this a statebred stakes today and competition much softer here.. broberg /cabrera
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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