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_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
this is the type of 2yo msw race you get on the undercard of a big day.. the 2 who've run ran well in their debut and you won't find a better bunch of first time starters.. probably at least 3 eventual stakes winners in here.. have to side with chad here as best represents my expensive relative to the specs angle along with a trainer who has them wound up first out.. have to think the owners, his main clients, would love to be in the winners circle today.. they usually name their horses with financial themes
R2 #1 fog of war (2-1)
has the 2 (3-1) also but like this 1 better.. other would be my 2nd choice
R3 #1 allied invasion (5-1) 69
first time starter by new sire "normandy invasion " so gotta love the name.. I know it's so easy to go clement/joel right now but what appeals to me besides is the placement.. they're choosing statebred 40k maidens which is where a horse with a modest pedigree like this belongs ..clement is profitable in this category over a very large sample at avg win % which means he hits a lot of decent prices.. probably not the case here though
R4 #6 uncle moonlight (10-1)
another way above avg field of maidens but this time it's 3 year olds.. two favorites (3,5) have run multiple big races (to be fair lightly race and good figures on both) but yet to win.. I like looking for a big pedigree who hasn't revealed their hand yet.. mine huge pedigree and caught a muddy track at belmont in his debut.. bumped at the start and winner of race came back to repeat.. did some running along the way..these are the types I look for in these races and realize I will miss most of the time but get value when I hit.. trainer solid and below the radar.. breeder/owner have been involved in this game at a high level for decades
R5 #4 vexatious (5-1)
take a shot to upset midnight bisou (2-5)..biggest like of mine is ran a figure last out that is faster than the favorite has ever run.. raced here only one other time in a restricticted stakes and missed by a neck.. obviously a lot lower in class is an understatement but the figures for that race, (pace, final) were grade 1 level and she was up close.. same true of the pace last race and also up close.. I respect this trainer and don't think he'd just throw her in here if she didn't come out of her last race ok
R6 #7 everfast (2-1)
R7 #1 flight to paradise (12-1)
first time starter from my friend trombetta who I've hit 2/2 with including $71 bomb.. nice pedigree but not up to the biggies in here (same circumstances as big price).. also going from the 1 post like the other two.. easy decision irregardless of result
R7 #6 shawdyshawdyshawdy (8-1)
homebred first time starter with a nice pedigree but again not up to the other mega ones in here.. trainer has excellent numbers in these types of races.. think he was a chad brown assistant who gets some of the lesser ones from his big client(s)
2 horses R7
R8 #6 montauk summer (10-1) 3WP
ran type of line in a middle distance race I like for stretching out to a marathon.. was also behind a slow pace and very wide both turns.. not concerned joel hops off as he's riding for the trainer of the favorite in the whitney.. this horse also cost a decent amount for the pedigree.. red hot clement the trainer
R9 #3 code of honor (5-2) whitney
this is a horse for me who throughout his career has had excuses for bad races..posts,pace compromised multiple times and last race closed on the outside on met mile day which was not the thing to do that say..can run big numbers,3rd off the layoff and won the travers here last year..the time is now for a big effort
R10 #8 three technique (6-1)
i'm thinking a pace duel may develop here and mine would definitely be a beneficiary.. off what he's done I think today's 7f is perfect
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
will have 6-8 (4:02) up by 3pm..possibly a few beyond that but finishing the card will probably be a post beyond that
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
np guys.. put up through 9 now.. next post will be the remainder
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
glad you had it fraoli.. have mod priveledges in here and mistakenly tried to edit the other post
finished the card
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
added R11 as best bet..this will be my last of those..want to de-emphasize best bets
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
I said in R1 yesterday (chad's monster) there may not be a maiden race as strong as this one.. this may rival it and considering the depth may be better (fillies today, colts yesterday) chad's got another ultra expensive one in here with above avg win early pedigree in #4 mo dean (4-1)..after yesterday doubt she'll be that.. even though mine cost a little more than 1/4 of his, relative she's very expensive..believe sire is a freshman.. trainer above average with firsters
side note.. think if chad's is going off 5-2 or higher not a good sign
R7 #6 discretionary marq (8-1)
R8 #7 moonachie (8-1)
many excuses last two including post position, track condition and running vs open allowance at oaklawn (statebreds today).. comes back to where he broke his maiden first out by 10 lengths geared down.. jock who won with him that time gets back aboard (jose ortiz)
R9 #4 rocketry (7-2)
on a fast track with a fair pace I think he's the best at this distance (1 3/4 miles dirt)
R10 #2 tactician (4-1)
placed right, potentially good pace scenario and a trainer who excels in many categories..like that he gets back to 2 turns after the 1 turn mile at churchill last out
_______________________________________________ ( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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