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MLB Tuesday 5/31 - Signature Total
Season to date profit sits at (+$4,778). It's been a long time coming waiting for the first one of these special "Signature Total" plays. Had a few that just missed qualifying and split on those. Success of these plays continued last season, going 5-1 on them, and in the 5 years since I started betting this handicapping theory they have hit at just over 80%.
$600 N.Y. Yankees/Toronto over 8.5 (-120) I know this game is still more than a day away, but I figured if I get it up early nobody will miss it, and you can line shop and jump on whatever number suits you. I will say though, in the past 2 years I have noticed "sharp" line moves on these, so your best line may be the earliest. I absolutely love the set-up of this play! C.C. Sabathia held the powerful Blue Jay's line-up to just 2 hits in 7 innings in his last start, both runs he allowed were unearned. He struck out 7 and walked 1 in what can only be called a "turn-back-the-clock" performance. His current ERA is 2.83, and if ever there was a guy over-performing his abilities, here he is. He certainly was very capable of those numbers a few years back, but his lowest full season ERA the last 3 years was 4.73 last year. J.A. Happ was equally dominant last week when he faced the Yankees, allowing just 3 hits in 7 innings, with the only run being allowed on a solo HR. You could certainly argue Happ has out-performed his expected numbers so far as his ERA sits at 3.20 for the season. I expect both teams to have much more success facing these very average pitchers the 2nd time around, if both guys don't allow 4 or more runs I would be shocked. Since I expect the posted total for this game to be around 8.5, I would expect this game goes over the total somewhere around the 5th inning. I will bump this post when I actually put the bet in and know what number I got. LOSER (-720)
$600 N.Y. Yankees/Toronto over 8.5 (-120) I know this game is still more than a day away, but I figured if I get it up early nobody will miss it, and you can line shop and jump on whatever number suits you. I will say though, in the past 2 years I have noticed "sharp" line moves on these, so your best line may be the earliest. I absolutely love the set-up of this play! C.C. Sabathia held the powerful Blue Jay's line-up to just 2 hits in 7 innings in his last start, both runs he allowed were unearned. He struck out 7 and walked 1 in what can only be called a "turn-back-the-clock" performance. His current ERA is 2.83, and if ever there was a guy over-performing his abilities, here he is. He certainly was very capable of those numbers a few years back, but his lowest full season ERA the last 3 years was 4.73 last year. J.A. Happ was equally dominant last week when he faced the Yankees, allowing just 3 hits in 7 innings, with the only run being allowed on a solo HR. You could certainly argue Happ has out-performed his expected numbers so far as his ERA sits at 3.20 for the season. I expect both teams to have much more success facing these very average pitchers the 2nd time around, if both guys don't allow 4 or more runs I would be shocked. Since I expect the posted total for this game to be around 8.5, I would expect this game goes over the total somewhere around the 5th inning. I will bump this post when I actually put the bet in and know what number I got. LOSER (-720)
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