In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

[TheGame]

Teams

Pitchers vs Teams

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Teams Last 10 W/Ump


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Trend Report

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

MLB


National League
Marlins-Phillies
Eovaldi is 0-1, 5.47 in his last four starts.
Hernandez is 1-3, 6.86 in his last four starts.


Marlins lost four of their last five games.
Phillies won five of last seven games, but lost last two.


Four of last five Hernandez starts went over total.


Reds-Cubs
Simon is 4-0, 3.37 in his last four starts.
Samardzija is 1-2, 6.95 in his last four starts.


Cincinnati won eight of its last eleven games.
Cubs lost three of their last four home games.


Four of last five Samardzija starts went over total.


Nationals-Brewers
Gonzalez is 0-3, 7.78 in his last four starts.
Garza is 2-0, 3.67 in his last four starts.


Washington lost its last four road games.
Brewers won six of their last seven games.


Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Garza starts.


Cardinals-Rockies
Lynn is 1-2, 1.89 in his last three starts.
Chacin is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three starts.


Cardinals won ten of their last fourteen games.
Colorado lost its last six games.


Over is 9-1-2 in last twelve Colorado games; under is 5-0-1 in Cards' last six.


Padres-Giants
Cuban rookie Despaigne is making MLB debut; he was 1-3, 7.61 in five AAA starts; PCL batters hit .356 against him.
Cain is 1-2, 7.41 in his last three starts.


San Diego lost eight of its last nine games.
Giants lost nine of their last twelve games.


Five of last seven Cain starts went over the total; eight of last nine San Diego games stayed under.


American League
Bronx-Blue Jays
Whitley is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
Stroman is 0-2, 4.66 in his last couple starts.


Bronx won eight of last twelve games, but lost last two.
Blue Jays lost five of their last six games.


Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Toronto home games.


White Sox-Orioles
Sale is 3-1, 2.37 in his last six starts.
Chen is 2-0, 2.13 in his last four starts.


White Sox lost their last seven road games.
Baltimore is 8-5 in its last thirteen home games.


Five of last seven Sale starts stayed under total.


Red Sox-Mariners
Lackey is 1-0, 2.28 in his last three starts.
Hernandez is 5-1, 1.78 in his last eight starts.


Red Sox lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
Seattle won six of its last eight games.


Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Boston games.


Interleague games
Pirates-Rays
Volquez is 1-2, 7.04 in his last three starts.
Cobb is 1-1, 1.32 in his last two starts.


Pirates won eight of their last twelve road games.
Tampa Bay won three of its last four games.


Under is 6-2-1 in Cobb's starts this season.


Dodgers-Royals
Greinke is 1-1, 2.25 in his last two starts.
Guthrie is 2-0, 2.19 in his last two starts.


Dodgers won seven of their last nine games.
Kansas City lost its last four games.


Six of last seven Guthrie starts stayed under total.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Eovaldi 6-15; RHernandez 6-13 (4 of last 7)
-- Simon 5-14; Samardzija 7-18
-- Gonzalez 5-10 (3 of last 4); Garza 7-15
-- Lynn 4-15; Chacin 3-9
-- Despaigne 0-0; Cain 5-11


-- Whitley 1-7; Stroman 2-4
-- Sale 0-10 (batters 1-31); Chen 5-14
-- Lackey 4-15; FHernandez 1-16


-- Volquez 5-14; Cobb 2-9
-- Greinke 3-15; Guthrie 4-15

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

MLB

This team keeps cashing in for under bettors
Stephen Campbell


The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the top under teams in baseball recently, evidenced by 10 of their last 12 games going under the total as of Sunday. The O's take on the Chicago White Sox Monday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.


Sportsbooks currently has the ChiSox as -125 faves with a total of eight.






Reds, Simon fantastic on the road


Alfredo Simon gets the nod for the Cincinnati Reds Monday against the lowly Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Reds have been road warriors as of late with Simon starting, posting a 7-1 record in his last eight road starts.


Sportsbooks currently has the Cubbies as -108 faves for the NL Central matchup.






Rockies all offense, Over bettors not complaining


The Colorado Rockies have proven they're an offensive powerhouse this season, and it's showing in their lines. Through Sunday, the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 10 games.


The Rox host the St. Louis Cardinals Monday at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Sportsbooks currently has the Cards as -112 faves with a total of 10.5.






Royals red-hot in interleague play


The Kansas City Royals have dominated interleague play recently, winning seven out of their last eight games against the National League through Sunday. They'll have another opportunity to keep that trend going when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium Monday.


Sportsbooks currently has the Royals as -150 faves with a total of 7.5.

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

MLB


Monday, June 23


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Trend Report
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7:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. BALTIMORE
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox


7:05 PM
MIAMI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Miami


7:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TORONTO
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games at home
Toronto is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees


7:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games


8:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CHI CUBS
Cincinnati is 17-2 SU in their last 19 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 13 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games at home
Chi Cubs are 6-16 SU in their last 22 games when playing Cincinnati


8:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 11 games at home


8:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. KANSAS CITY
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games


8:40 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. COLORADO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of St. Louis's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games at home
Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games


10:10 PM
BOSTON vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston


10:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 11 games on the road
San Diego is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, JUNE 23rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Monday, 6/23/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
__________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #13
•Royals Red-Hot In Interleague Play: The Kansas City Royals have dominated interleague play recently, winning seven out of their last eight games against the National League through Sunday. They'll have another opportunity to keep that trend going when they host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium Monday.BetOnline.com currently has the Royals as -150 faves with a total of 7.5.

•Rockies All Offense, Over Bettors Not Complaining: The Colorado Rockies have proven they're an offensive powerhouse this season, and it's showing in their lines. Through Sunday, the Over is 8-1-2 in their last 10 games. The Rockies host the St. Louis Cardinals (8:40 PM EST) Monday evening at hitter-friendly Coors Field.BetOnline.com currently has the Cards as -112 faves with a total of 10.5.

•Reds, Simon Fantastic On The Road: Alfredo Simon gets the nod for the Cincinnati Reds (8:05 PM EST) on Monday night against the lowly Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Reds have been road warriors as of late with Simon starting, posting a 7-1 record in his last eight road starts. BetOnline.com currently has the Cubbies as -108 faves for the National League Central matchup.

•This Team Keeps Cashing In For Under Bettors: The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the top under teams in baseball recently, evidenced by 10 of their last 12 games going under the total as of Sunday. The Orioles take on the Chicago White Sox (7:05 PM EST) Monday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. BetOnline.com currently has the White Sox as -125 faves with a total of eight.
_____________________________________

Betting Notes - Monday

National League
•Marlins-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Eovaldi is 0-1, 5.47 in his last four starts.
--Hernandez is 1-3, 6.86 in his last four starts.

--Marlins lost four of their last five games.
--Phillies won five of last seven games, but lost last two.

--Four of last five Hernandez starts went over total.

•Reds-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Simon is 4-0, 3.37 in his last four starts.
--Samardzija is 1-2, 6.95 in his last four starts.

--Cincinnati won eight of its last eleven games.
--Cubs lost three of their last four home games.

--Four of last five Samardzija starts went over total.

•Nationals-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Gonzalez is 0-3, 7.78 in his last four starts.
--Garza is 2-0, 3.67 in his last four starts.

--Washington lost its last four road games.
--Brewers won six of their last seven games.

--Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Garza starts.

•Cardinals-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Lynn is 1-2, 1.89 in his last three starts.
--Chacin is 1-1, 2.84 in his last three starts.

--Cardinals won ten of their last fourteen games.
--Colorado lost its last six games.

--Over is 9-1-2 in last twelve Colorado games; under is 5-0-1 in Cards' last six.

•Padres-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Cuban rookie Despaigne is making MLB debut; he was 1-3, 7.61 in five AAA starts; PCL batters hit .356 against him.
--Cain is 1-2, 7.41 in his last three starts.

--San Diego lost eight of its last nine games.
--Giants lost nine of their last twelve games.

--Five of last seven Cain starts went over the total; eight of last nine San Diego games stayed under.

American League
•Yankees-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Whitley is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
--Stroman is 0-2, 4.66 in his last couple starts.

--Yankees won eight of last twelve games, but lost last two.
--Blue Jays lost five of their last six games.

--Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Toronto home games.

•White Sox-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Sale is 3-1, 2.37 in his last six starts.
--Chen is 2-0, 2.13 in his last four starts.

--White Sox lost their last seven road games.
--Baltimore is 8-5 in its last thirteen home games.

--Five of last seven Sale starts stayed under total.

•Red Sox-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Lackey is 1-0, 2.28 in his last three starts.
--Hernandez is 5-1, 1.78 in his last eight starts.

--Red Sox lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
--Seattle won six of its last eight games.

--Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Boston games.

Interleague
•Pirates-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Volquez is 1-2, 7.04 in his last three starts.
--Cobb is 1-1, 1.32 in his last two starts.

--Pirates won eight of their last twelve road games.
--Tampa Bay won three of its last four games.

--Under is 6-2-1 in Cobb's starts this season.

•Dodgers-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Greinke is 1-1, 2.25 in his last two starts.
--Guthrie is 2-0, 2.19 in his last two starts.

--Dodgers won seven of their last nine games.
--Kansas City lost its last four games.

--Six of last seven Guthrie starts stayed under total.

Diamond Trends - Monday
•TAMPA BAY is 5-15 (-14.8 Units) against the money line versus an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.2, OPPONENT 5.0.

•PHILADELPHIA is 26-8 OVER (+17.9 Units) versus a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.0, OPPONENT 5.4.

•LA DODGERS are 4-16 (-19.3 Units) against the run line in road games versus American League teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was LA DODGERS 2.2, OPPONENT 4.5.

•ALFREDO SIMON is 12-1 (+12.4 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was SIMON 4.2, OPPONENT 2.3.

•JOHN LACKEY is 20-6 UNDER (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LACKEY 4.0, OPPONENT 3.4.

•MATT CAIN is 7-30 (-22.4 Units) against the run line in home games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997.
The average score was CAIN 3.0, OPPONENT 3.9.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams with a money line of +100 to +150 (BOSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(43-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.8%, +28.5 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.4
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +1.7)

The situation's record this season is: (2-2, +0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +8.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (53-22, +26.7 units).

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

Andrew Cashner was scratched from his start Monday against the Giants due to shoulder soreness.
Rumors suggested Sunday that a trade might be in the works given the Padres' recent front office change, but there was never any substance to them. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman says Cashner's right shoulder is "a little sore" and the Padres want to play it safe.

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

Straight Up Trends (Won Loss)

Category	Record	Percent
Away Teams	550-580	48.67%
Home Teams	580-550	51.33%
Favorites	612-505	54.79%
Dogs	505-612	45.21%
Away Favorites	186-147	55.86%
Away Dogs	358-426	45.66%
Home Favorites	426-358	54.34%
Home Dogs	147-186	44.14%

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Category	Record	Percent
Away Teams	647-483	57.26%
Home Teams	483-647	42.74%
Favorites	439-691	38.85%
Dogs	691-439	61.15%
Away Favorites	145-189	43.41%
Away Dogs	502-294	63.07%
Home Favorites	294-502	36.93%
Home Dogs	189-145	56.59%

Over vs. Under Trends

Category	Overs	Percent	Unders	Percent
Extra Inning Games	60	57.14%	45	42.86%
Non-Extra Inning Games	474	49.22%	489	50.78%
All Games	534	50.00%	534	50.00%

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

Top 5 Starter Money

#	Name	Team	W/L	%	$
1	Phil Hughes	MIN	11-4	73.3	1050
2	Scott Kazmir	OAK	13-2	86.7	982
3	Alfredo Simon	CIN	11-3	78.6	921
4	Kyle Lohse	MIL	12-4	75.0	831
5	Adam Wainwright	STL	12-3	80.0	727

Top 5 Umpire Homer

#	Name	W/L	%	$
1	John Hirschbeck	2-0	100.0	216
2	Chad Fairchild	1-0	100.0	100
3	Jon Byrne	1-0	100.0	100
4	Gerry Davis	14-2	87.5	1220
5	David Rackley	10-2	83.3	817

Top 5 Umpire O/U

#	Name	O/U	%	Avg.
1	Angel Campos	5-0	100.0	9.7
2	Chad Fairchild	1-0	100.0	10.0
3	Jon Byrne	1-0	100.0	9.0
4	Jeff Gosney	1-0	100.0	16.0
5	Chris Conroy	10-1	90.9	14.0

Top 5 Ballpark OPS

#	Team	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Colorado	.360	.500	.860
2	Toronto	.335	.454	.789
3	Detroit	.334	.430	.764
4	NY Yankees	.317	.428	.745
5	Arizona	.310	.430	.740

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

MLB Weekend Series: Five Key Takeaways
By David Malinsky
Covers.com

It is time to take an inside look at the pitches and swings from the MLB weekend series, isolating those key edges that can put you far ahead of the marketplace, and build your bankroll in the days ahead.

A’s – Sean Doolittle, does a lot

Did you see Sean Doolittle coming? No reason to feel bad if you didn’t; even the A’s themselves did not anticipate it. Which makes it a prime time to talk about just how shockingly good he has been.

One of the earliest columns of this season dealt with Oakland’s hopes that Jim Johnson would be the answer at closer, but there were doubts from this end because of how he had been overworked by Baltimore. It was a move the A’s made because they were not sure how good Doolittle was, or how ready, and it was among the rare personnel mistakes from this franchise in recent years. Johnson’s season has gone from bad to worse, with a 5.58 ERA, including nearly as many BB (17) as K’s (19), and he is becoming insignificant, having been given one save opportunity in over two months.

Enter Doolittle. First, one can excuse the talent evaluators for missing the boat, because it was not until after two knee surgeries in 2010 that relief pitching became his aim, first in the Arizona Fall League in 2011. He blazed his way through the Minors in 2012, literally, with ridiculous K/command rates (48 over 25 IP, vs. only seven BB). Then over 2012-13 he worked 116 1/3 IP in The Show, mostly low leverage, but when called on to close he was not successful, converting only three of nine save chances. So despite 120 K’s vs. 24 BB through that span, his failure in pressure settings made the acquisition of a proven closer an off-season priority. Johnson simply was not the right one, but indirectly that may have turned out quite well for the Oakland future. It led to Doolittle getting another opportunity for the role, and he has been absurdly good.

The overall numbers tell the tale – a 2.00 ERA, converting 10 of 11 save opportunities, and the historic 50 K’s vs. only 1 BB over 36 IP (no previous pitcher in the 20th or 21st Centuries had made it to 50 K’s with a lone BB). But if we isolate to his current stretch, it reaches a rare Baseball realm. Doolittle had a dismal outing at Houston on April 26, giving up hits to all four batters that he faced, and each of them came around to score in an Oakland loss. Instead of it shattering his confidence, it ignited a flame.

Flame is the proper word, because it is the high hard stuff that hitters have not been able to catch up to. Since that bad outing vs. the Astros he has dealt a 0.00 over 22 appearances (24 1/3 IP), with astounding rates of 37 K’s vs. only six hits and 1 BB (Tampa’s Ryan Hanigan, back on May 20). And since May 10 he has retired 57 of 61 batters, 29 via K’s. But while K’s often bring inflated pitch counts that can wear someone down, in the two series vs. Texas and Boston last week he needed just 40 pitches through four frames, despite striking out half of the batters he faced. And while fans might have been disappointed that he did not get a strikeout on Saturday, be dispatched three Red Sox batters on only seven pitches.

Projecting him going forward is not easy – no one has ever maintained these dominance levels over an extended period. But he is the rarity of a left-handed closer throwing high heat, and that will mean continued matchup advantages; it will take quite some time before individual hitters get enough looks at him to be able to settle in. He is also a work in progress, with only 178 1/3 professional innings under his belt, so there is the frightening aspect that this may not even be his best stuff yet. His development could be that final piece to an awfully strong Oakland puzzle.

Angels – The Closer search, in late June

While the A’s have found their answer for the closer role, Mike Scioscia is still in need of Rolaids. Perhaps literally, given the way the late innings have been faring for his bullpen. While Oakland will be difficult to chase down, the Angels lead the AL Wild Card race, which is fitting for a team that is #3 in RPG, based on #5 in both SLG and OPS. They are going to hit. And a starting rotation that sits at 3.53, #8 in the majors, can buy that offense enough innings to click most nights. It has been from the mound-work in the latter stages where things have gone wrong.

The Angel bullpen sports a 4.49 ERA that rates #26. Despite having 41 wins there have only been 16 saves, with only five teams worse (and those five are a collective 50 games under .500). Only the Pirates have more blown saves, and there have been nine losses after leading in the 7th inning or later, more than any other team.

The problem is that it is not just one or two performers having bad campaigns that could turn around, but the fact that the direction for the season was never really in place. They actually came in with as much “hope” as expectation that the pieces were there. Ernestso Frieri can challenge hitters with his heat (a career 12.1 K-per-9), but his league-low ground-ball rate is a danger zone for a closer. He has been roughed up to an 0-3/5.83 with three blown saves, allowing eight HR over just 29 1/3 IP, and that latter count extends to 19 over just 98 IP the L2 seasons. When he gets his next opportunity will be a question – he did not work in the Texas series, after a dismal road trip in which he was rocked for six runs over 1.1 IP, allowing hits to eight of the 13 batters he faced, culminating with the Nick Swisher grand slam in Cleveland on Thursday.

But where can Scioscia turn? Joe Smith can be an effective set-up man with the ground-balls he generates, but has already failed on four of 12 save chances, and is far too vulnerable vs. left-handed hitters. Kevin Jepsen lacks the control (4.3 BB-per-9), and has already blown a pair of saves in six tries. Cam Bedrosian got the chance twice on that recent road trip, and failed both times after being rushed to the Majors, not having thrown a single pitch at the AAA level (Baseball generously credits him with a “hold” for that dismal outing in Cleveland, when three of the four batters he faced came around to score).

There is not a good answer on this roster for a team with the talent to contend in the other departments. Which means that the Angel closer for the stretch run of the pennant chase is likely wearing another uniform right now (Huston Street?). Until such a deal happens you will need to navigate carefully when it looks like they brings a Play-On setting – the focus can be on the First Five Innings to negate those closer issues, or if it is a favorable matchup for the offense vs. an opposing starter, making Over a part of your portfolio.

Phillies – Cole Hamels, and the elusiveness of Wins

Hamels will get one more start before June turns into July, but a case can already be made that he has been the best starter in the Majors this month, a tidy 0.73 over 37 IP, with 40 K’s vs. only 27 hits allowed. But that falls under the radar a bit because he only has one win over those five starts. Baseball does that, through short samples. What has happened to Hamels since the start of the 2013 season is an entirely different matter.

This past Saturday afternoon at St. Louis was one of those typical heart-breakers for a pitcher. Hamels matched St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright pitch-for-pitch, with the game tied 1-1 into the bottom of the 8th. He ended up on the wrong end of a 4-1 defeat, wearing down as he reached 120 pitches, but also again a victim of a lack of support. Of the meager seven total bases the Philadelphia offense managed in the game, he provided three himself (a single and a double). But this is not anything new.

Hamels has worked to a sharp 2.76 over 13 starts this season, but has only two wins, with the Phillies going 4-9. Over the past two seasons he has dealt at a solid 3.37, yet has only been credited with a 10-18 personal W/L, with a dismal 17-29 for the team. To get 10 wins out of 46 starts at that allowance rate is not easy; there were 19 games in that span in which he allowed two ER or less, and was not rewarded.

Let’s establish some perspective. If we track all qualifying pitchers since the start of 2013, the three directly above him on the ERA charts are Jered Weaver, John Lackey and James Shields. They have gone 57-43. The three below him are C. J. Wilson, Patrick Corbin and Derek Holland. They have gone 48-30 (a lower count due to Corbin and Holland being on the DL this season). Hamels is in the middle of a group that has generated a 105-73 W/L mark, which shows how much of an outlier his 10-18 is. And contrast the 146-101 record of the teams involved, vs. the 17-29 for the Phillies.

When rating Hamels, all that should matter is the way that he has pitched, and not the final scores, especially those $$$ +/- charts. Had you wagered on every one of his starts this season you would be -$459, and over the L2 seasons it is -$2025. Those are dramatic numbers, but of no correlation to his performance level, and hence of precious little predictive value. If the markets attach weight to them and create a counterfeit currency, it could mean some “play on” value for his upcoming starts, especially with the slow NL East pace through the first couple of 2014 furlongs keeping the Phillies in the hunt, which should ultimately lead to better play behind him.

Cardinals – When power takes a (Matt) Holliday

This is going to be a challenging road trip for Mike Matheny and the Cardinals, getting on the plane without Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia from the starting rotation, both being placede on the DL. The task is made more difficult by the St. Louis offensive struggles, with one of the keys to being above .500 the fact that there have been four 1-0 wins already. Perhaps no one is more important to watch the next few days than Holliday, in his return to Coors Field.

Issues of the Cardinal offense were dealt with in an important earlier take, noting that their run production level in 2013 was far beyond the usual distribution for their base production, and a downgrade was in order. As the season progresses it has been quite a drop – only the Rays, Braves and Padres have scored fewer RPG. But it is not just Baseball being Baseball, and some of those 2013 bounces evening out; instead there are genuine concerns about the dip in power from Holliday.

To call Holliday a model of consistency through the years is an understatement – since joining the Cardinals his full-season BA has been between .295 and .312 each campaign, the OBA range from .379 to .394, and SLG from .490 to .532. His HR counts were 28, 22, 27 and 22, and his BB% ranged from a low of 10.2 to a high of 11.6. So while he turned 35 this past January, that consistency gave no indication of any imminent decline.

But decline has been the story. Through 74 games and 323 PA’s his swings have only generated a .261/.372/.382 line. It is the latter count that is the most alarming – it is more than 100 points below any previous season, and he has only five HR. It got to the point where Matheny penciled him in at #2 in the batting order on Sunday, the first time in that slot since 2010.

The Cardinals badly need power from Holliday, because it will come from few other slots in the lineup – they are tied with Kansas City for the fewest HR in the Majors with 42, and no other team has less than 53. It is even more important with the pitching staff facing those issues on this road trip. Hence, why the spotlight shines on him, starting Monday night in Denver. Holliday has belted out a .359/.426/.655 over his career in Coors Field, with 91 HR in 373 games. He will be up against a struggling pitching staff, with the Rockies not even knowing their Wednesday starter yet. A power surge in this park vs. those pitchers may not necessarily mean much, but the lack of a power surge could turn out to mean plenty.

Giants – Matt Cain, no longer “Lord of the Flies”

In reviewing the MLB weekday series a few days ago there was a take on Buster Posey’s declining power counts, and how that would be a particular issue for the Giants over the course of the summer, because of the struggles of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in the starting rotation. Lincecum’s declining stuff was dealt with earlier in the season (you can click the link to the same column that focused on Jim Johnson above), but while Cain did not work this past weekend, his patterns are becoming established pretty clearly, so it is an appropriate time to re-define him as well. Especially since he is about to get MLB’s easiest matchup, a home game vs. the Padres, which can keep the markets a step behind.

Cain has put together a solid MLB career despite only having good, and not great, stuff, basically surviving by being a fly-ball pitcher on the West Coast, where a guy can make a good living out of that. There have been earlier takes here on Jered Weaver and Chris Young, and how modern metrics such as xFIP get blurred vision through their out distributions. Cain has been the same – in each of his first eight seasons his ERA was lower than his xFIP, three times by more than a full run. He appeared to be getting lucky consistently, with a career BABIP of .263, but fly-balls are turned into outs at a higher rate than ground-balls; the key is to keep them in the park, where the fielders can get a glove at them. After over 1,800 MLB innings, that key for Cain is no longer opening the locks the way it once did.

Cain fell off to 8-10/4.00 in 2013, only his second losing campaign, and his highest ERA since his first full season back in 2006. His K-per-9 was above his career average and his BB-per-9 was below it, both positives, and his BABIP checked in at a favorable .260 again. No sign of decline there, but his HR/FB rate was 10.8 percent, the highest of his career. Now 2014 brings a 1-5/4.52 so far, and some of the peripherals are disturbing. First note that his 6.9 K-per-9 would be a career low (not counting 2005, when he only made seven starts), while his 3.4 BB-per-9 would be the highest since 2008. His Swinging Strike rate is also at a career bottom. But the big alarm is again the HR/FB rate, now up to 15.1. While that might seem like an outlier that could pull back, for a veteran with a good track record, it marks the third straight season in which it has risen appreciably. There is something to be said for that. And to have the highest ERA of his career, despite a favorable .249 BABIP, is a genuine warning – his FIP of 5.02 is more than a run higher than any other full season, and his xFIP is the highest since 2008.

Cain will not completely implode because he is a crafty competitor, and can still get away with fly-balls from his home mound, plus those division road parks in Los Angeles and San Diego. But there is no appreciable reason for him to return to his past form – this simply might be who he is right now.

[TheGame]

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/23

Chris Davis is not in the Orioles' starting lineup on Monday night against the White Sox