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**TheGame** · 06-30-2014, 05:45 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/30

MLB

National League
Rockies-Nationals
Flande allowed four runs in five IP in his first MLB start.
Zimmerman is 2-2, 1.18 in his last five starts.

Colorado lost 11 of its last 13 games.
Nationals won nine of their last 12 home games.

Last five Zimmerman starts stayed under the total.

Mets-Braves
Wheeler is 1-3, 6.41 in his last four starts.
Wood has a 2.84 RA in his last six starts.

Mets lost four of their last five games.
Atlanta won six of last seven games, but lost eight of last ten at home.

Seven of last eight Atlanta games stayed under total.

Reds-Padres
Former Padre Latos is 1-0, 2.89 in three starts this season.
Hahn is 3-0, 1.42 in his last three starts.

Cincinnati won 13 of its last 17 road games.
Padres lost four of their last five home games.

11 of last 13 games at Petco Park stayed under.

American League
Rangers-Orioles
Saunders is 0-3, 8.10 in his last four starts.
Jimenez is 0-2, 5.75 in his last four starts.

Rangers lost nine of their last eleven games.
Baltimore lost three of its last four games.

Seven of last ten Texas road games stayed under.

A's-Tigers
Kazmir is 4-1, 3.05 in his last six starts.
Sanchez is 3-0, 2.84 in his last five starts.

Oakland won 11 of its last 14 games.
Tigers won five of their last seven games.

Five of last six Oakland games went over the total.

Rays-Bronx
Archer is 1-2, 5.94 in his last three starts.
Phelps is 2-5, 5.40 in his last seven starts.

Tampa Bay won four of its last five games.
Bronx lost six of its last eight games.

Six of last eight Archer starts stayed under total.

Royals-Twins
Duffy is 2-2, 1.71 in his last five starts.
Pino is 0-1, 6.30 in his first two MLB starts.

Royals lost seven of last ten games, but won eight of last nine on road.
Minnesota lost five of last six games, but won four in row at home.

Under is 3-1-1 in Duffy's road starts this season.

Mariners-Astros
Walker was 1-0, 3.60 in three MLB starts LY; he was 2-1, 4.11 in six starts in AAA this season.
McHugh is 0-3, 4.84 in his last four starts.

Seattle won seven of its last nine games.
Houston lost nine of its last thirteen games.

Five of last seven McHugh starts stayed under.

Angels-White Sox
Richards is 4-0, 1.05 in his last five starts.
Noesi is 1-1, 5.89 in his last four starts.

Angels won seven of last nine games, but lost 11 of last 15 on road.
White Sox won their last three games.

Seven of last eight White Sox home games went over.

Interleague game
Cubs-Red Sox
Arrieta is 3-0, 1.00 in his last four starts.
Peavy is 0-4, 6.16 in his last five starts.

Cubs lost six of their last nine games.
Red Sox won three of their last four games.

11 of last 12 games at Fenway Park stayed under.

Indians-Dodgers
Kluber is 1-1, 1.86 in his last three starts.
Haren is 2-0, 4.98 in his last four starts; Dodgers scored 22 runs.

Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
Dodgers won 12 of their last 16 games.

Seven of last ten Kluber starts went over the total.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Flande 0-1; Zimmerman 1-16
-- Wheeler 6-16; Wood 4-8
-- Latos 0-3; Hahn 0-4

-- Saunders 2-7; Jimenez 5-16
-- Kazmir 3-16; Sanchez 4-13
-- Archer 4-16; Phelps 0-10
-- Duffy 2-10; Pino 0-2
-- Walker 0-0; McHugh 1-12
-- Richards 3-16; Noesi 3-11

-- Arrieta 3-10; Peavy 4-16 (3 of last 5)
-- Kluber 4-17; Haren 8-16 (4 of last 6)

**TheGame** · 06-30-2014, 07:13 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/30

Pitchers Report.

ZACK WHEELER vs. ATLANTA since 1997
WHEELER is 3-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.94 and a WHIP of 1.382.
His team's record is 4-1 (+4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)
ALEX WOOD vs. NY METS since 1997
WOOD is 0-1 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.725.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

YOHAN FLANDE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
No recent starts.

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN vs. COLORADO since 1997
ZIMMERMANN is 4-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 1.158.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.3 units)

MAT LATOS vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
LATOS is 0-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 1.077.
His team's record is 0-2 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)
JESSE HAHN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

JOE SAUNDERS vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SAUNDERS is 7-0 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.98 and a WHIP of 1.525.
His team's record is 9-1 (+8.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-1. (+8.0 units)
UBALDO JIMENEZ vs. TEXAS since 1997
JIMENEZ is 3-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.379.
His team's record is 4-3 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.2 units)

SCOTT KAZMIR vs. DETROIT since 1997
KAZMIR is 5-5 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.64 and a WHIP of 1.304.
His team's record is 6-8 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-4.0 units)
ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
SANCHEZ is 1-3 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.42 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 1-5 (-5.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-4. (-2.0 units)

CHRIS ARCHER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
ARCHER is 4-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.26 and a WHIP of 0.628.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)
DAVID PHELPS vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
PHELPS is 2-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.82 and a WHIP of 1.209.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.0 units)

DANNY DUFFY vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
DUFFY is 1-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.499.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)
YOHAN PINO vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
No recent starts.

TAIJUAN WALKER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
WALKER is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
COLLIN MCHUGH vs. SEATTLE since 1997
MCHUGH is 1-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.125.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

GARRETT RICHARDS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.
HECTOR NOESI vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
NOESI is 0-1 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

JAKE ARRIETA vs. BOSTON since 1997
ARRIETA is 0-3 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 5.67 and a WHIP of 1.593.
His team's record is 1-4 (-2.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-4. (-3.7 units)
JAKE PEAVY vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
PEAVY is 7-4 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 1.193.
His team's record is 9-5 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.5 units)

COREY KLUBER vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.
DAN HAREN vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
HAREN is 4-3 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.313.
His team's record is 6-6 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-5. (-0.6 units)

**TheGame** · 06-30-2014, 07:52 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/30

MLB

Monday, June 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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7:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY YANKEES
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
NY Yankees are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

7:05 PM
TEXAS vs. BALTIMORE
Texas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Baltimore's last 14 games at home
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

7:05 PM
COLORADO vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games
Colorado is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games when playing at home against Colorado

7:08 PM
OAKLAND vs. DETROIT
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games at home

7:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. BOSTON
Chi Cubs are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games
Chi Cubs are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Boston's last 20 games
Boston is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs

7:10 PM
NY METS vs. ATLANTA
NY Mets are 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home

8:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Angels's last 12 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
LA Angels are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
Chi White Sox are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against LA Angels

8:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. MINNESOTA
Kansas City is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

8:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. HOUSTON
Seattle is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Houston
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Houston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

10:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. LA DODGERS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Cleveland

10:10 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN DIEGO
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home

**TheGame** · 06-30-2014, 09:21 AM

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/30

Baseball Betting Report
Sportspic.com

Another week of baseball is in the books, which means it's time for our weekly betting update.

Hot

The Braves were struggling, but have now bounced back reeling off a smart 6-1 (+$483) week, pushing them out front in the NL East by a half game. Getting great work from the pitching staff the past seven games (2.29 RPG) a three game set at home against lowly Mets who have lost 3 of it's last 4 on the road platting just 2.7 runs/game, there is a shot at a series sweep.

Cincinnati Reds sweeping a four game set at AT&T park have won 6-of-7 on this current road swing stuffing +$609 into betting accounts. Reds complete their road swing with three in San Diego

In the junior circuit, Oakland continued it's winning ways with a 4-1 (+$270) week to earn top spot in the Majors at 51-30 (.630) percentage points ahead of Milwaukee at 51-33 (.607). A's start the week in Detroit which has reeled off an 8-2 stretch crossing 5.4 per/game behind the bats of Kinsler (3 HR, 11 RBI), Martinez (3 HR, 7 RBI) and Cabrera (7 RBI).

Cold

Minnesota outscored 32-19 in losing 5-of-6 (-$391) at LAA and Texas return to Target Field for three against division foe Kansas City Royals who managed a six game split this past week (-$91)

Giants continue to flounder going 1-6 (-$632) this past week outscored 33-12. Overall the Giant funk has reached 4-15 (-$1468) with the club crossing 3.05 per/game, the hurlers giving up 5.00 per/contest. A trip to St. Louis could be the answer at reversing the skid as Cardinals are off a 1-3 (-$415) weekend at L.A. outscored 17-4.

Colorado which went 2-5 (-$254) the past seven days are in the running with Giants for the worst team in baseball as Rockies are now on a 2-11 (-$858) skid thanks in large part to a pitching staff that has given up a whopping 6.85 runs/game (8-3-2 O/U) over the thirteen game span.

O/U

Braves giving up just 2.29 runs/game this past week posted a 1-6 O/U mark with Houston the next best 'Under' play at 1-5 O/U. Colorado pitching staff crushed for 5.3 RPG this past week were 5-1 to the 'Over'.

Noteworthy seasonal situation trends:

Best 'Over' Situation
LAA 5-0 at home off 1 run loss
Colorado 25-14-4 on the road
Milwaukee 12-1 opening a road series
Dodgers 25-14-3 at home

Best 'Under' Situation
Atlanta 9-1 off a 1 run loss (6-0 home)
Dodgers 7-0 away off 1 run loss
Pittsburgh 5-0-1 away off 1 run loss
San Diego 12-1-2 vs lefties
Dodgers 25-16-1 away

Best/Worst Opening a Series
Pittsburgh 10-3 at home
Colorado 4-10 on the road
Arizona 5-10 home
Boston 2-12 away

Best/Worst after One Run Loss
Milwaukee 8-1
White Sox 1-11

Worst after One Run Win
Colorado (1-10), Atros (2-8)

Best/Worst after being blanked
A' (3-0), Cinci (6-1)
Texas (1-3), Arizona (1-6)

Best/Worst vs Left-Handed starter
LAA (11-5) at home
Cleveland 3-13 on the road

Best/Worst Interleague
A's (7-1), San Fran (6-0 home)
Philadelphia (0-4 home), Twins (1-4 home)

**TheGame** · 06-30-2014, 12:05 PM

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/30

MLB Weekend Series: Five Key Takeaways
By David Malinsky
Covers.com

It is once again time to take a run around the Weekend MLB bases, isolating the key edges that can build your bankroll, and put you far ahead of the betting markets in the days ahead.

Reds – The Aroldis Chapman “4 x 4” ride

Chapman is a special talent, and has a realistic opportunity to be the best closer in the history of the sport. At the age of 26 he already has 93 saves, and since being given the full-time closer role in 2012, it has been a 2.09 ERA over 159 IP, with the Cooperstown prelude-ish ratio of 280 K vs. only 84 hits allowed. His xFIP this season is a minuscule 0.88 (David Robertson at 1.24 is the only one with a half run), with a 20.3 percent swinging strike rate (Koji Uehara at 19.1 is the only one close). This is special stuff, and you do not mess with it. But Bryan Price did just that on Saturday night, and the aftermath will deserve scrutiny.

Price is in his first season as a manager, promoted from pitching coach after Dusty Baker was dismissed. And perhaps feeling the pressure after the Reds got off to a slow start, he gambled a couple of times with Chapman at San Francisco this past weekend. First came on Friday night, when he was brought in despite Cincy leading 6-2 in the bottom of the 9th. It was his third appearance in as many days, only the sixth time in his career he was used that way, and only the second this season. It worked, giving the Reds a three-game win streak, and it should have meant Saturday night off, especially with a Sunday afternoon game on deck.

But when the Reds rallied to take the lead off of Sergio Romo in the 9th on Saturday, the first time all season they had gone ahead after trailing in the 8th or later, Price may have gotten caught up in the moment. He called on Chapman for the fourth straight day, and the only reason it did not immediately backfire is because Pablo Sandoval can barely out-run growing grass. Whether it backfires in the long run is what we all need to follow.

Chapman allowed a single to Hunter Pence, walked Sandoval, and then got tagged for a double by Buster Posey, which would have ended the game with a swifter runner than Sandoval on base. With runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs, it became the kind of setting in which a high strikeout guy might reach back for something, but Chapman could not get the ball past the next two hitters. He did induce ground-balls vs. a drawn-in infield to hold Sandoval on third, however, before finally getting that K, vs. over-matched Adam Duvall, to end the inning.

Not only was it a “4 x 4”, but the passion play the outing turned into stretched Chapman to 31 pitches, his second high of the season. That was a horrific usage of such a prime talent, and while Chapman may indeed be fine if he gets a couple of days off, for a guy that began the season on the DL, this sequence never should have been allowed to happen.

Reds – Billy Hamilton, re-evaluated

Chapman is not the only intriguing physical talent on the Cincinnati roster – Hamilton also generates a lot of electricity. And his recent development is something that also requires some serious scrutiny, and interpretation.

There was an early take here on Hamilton, focusing on the fact that regardless of how fast he is, “You can’t steal first base”. Despite those sensational SB counts in the Minors, Hamilton did not hit at AAA (.256/.308/.343), which was legitimate cause for concern, and when April ended his count was just .256/.292/.344. It is not easy to win in the Majors with a .292 on-base from your lead-off man, no matter how many times a single or a BB effectively turns into a double, after he swipes second. May was not much better, a .260/.301/.351, and not surprisingly the Reds entered June with a losing record at 25-29.

But this month has been much different. Hamilton turned in a splendid .330/.351/.509, with 14 stolen bases. And when you get that from your leadoff man it sets quite a tone – the Reds have gone on a 20-9 surge, moving into a tie for second in the NL Central. Hamilton even hit three HR in June, and his 18 rbi are extremely high from his spot in the lineup. He now spots a .287 career average, which is higher than he hit in either AA or AAA. Ordinarily that might call for a regression, but Hamilton may genuinely be a different case.

Here is the gist – he is only 23, and because of that dynamic speed, had an accelerated ride to The Show. He is still in the learning process as a hitter, rather than being someone that the Minor League stats could be used to project his rates. But here is the unique catch – while most young hitters have to deal with pitchers working the edges of the strike zone against them, Hamilton is going to get plenty of good pitches to hit. It is a rare case of speed in the batters box having a genuine impact on pitch location.

MLB hurlers are showing that they are respecting that speed, well aware of a BB potentially putting him quickly on second. So they throw him strikes, and Hamilton’s hand/eye coordination has been there to handle those offerings. While his speed is obviously a part of legging out some infield hits, or reaching via a bunt, his line drive rate is 22.2 percent, with the league at 20.3. He is legitimately making good contact. But here is the other consideration – his BB rate of 4.3 percent is barely above half of the MLB 7.9, which for another would indicate a lack of patience or a bad eye. Be careful there, because it may not be the case – Hamilton will not draw many BB because pitchers are going to keep working the strike zone against him.

Here is one last irony – while his 34 steals is #3 in the Majors, his 75.5 success rate is not all that far above the league average of 72.9. It shows the impact his reputation has had before realities could be established. But that reputation is carrying an impact, not only on the pitches that he sees, but when he does reach base it will continue to mean more fast-balls for Todd Frazier, who is settling into the #2 spot and having an All Star caliber season. As long as Chapman can rebound from being over-worked this past weekend, the Reds are going to be in the hunt.

Astros – Jose Altuve makes contact (and more…)

It is easy to blend the Hamilton performance into what Altuve is doing with Houston, given their similarities. Is there a more under-valued player in the marketplace than the Astro second baseman right now? In terms of contract, absolutely not – he is a steal for ownership in being signed through 2017. And in June, they got a hell of a lot for their money.

Altuve turned in what looked like a career-month in May - .357/.393/.484. But that was only a prelude. June has been a spectacular .424/.455/.511, with 16 stolen bases without being caught once. He has had multiple hits nine times over the last 12 games, and is tied for the MLB lead in that category for the season, while his four consecutive games of multiple steals makes him the first player to accomplish that since Ray Chapman in 1917. There have been few better players in the sport over the past month, and a Houston team that entered the season with no expectations went 12-14, despite being the underdog in 24 of the 26 games.

So where is it all coming from? First the fact that Altuve was already a good player, despite getting little recognition. But by making better contact, he has elevated his game to a higher level. In 2012 it was a decent .290/.340/.399, with 33 steals, but an 11.7 percent K rate. In 2013 it was .283/.316/.363, with 35 steals, and a 12.6 K rate. This season those K’s are all the way down to 6.4, and by putting the ball in play more he has risen to the current .347/.386/.452.

Let’s put Altuve’s contact rates into perspective. There are 165 batters that qualify on the league charts so far, and no one has struck out less frequently, with Victor Martinez at 6.9 the only other player even close. In terms of swings and misses, his 4.3 percent rates #10. Like Hamilton, his ability to steal bases has pitchers working the strike zone to make him earn his way on. But what he has done much better than Hamilton is take advantage when he reaches base – 36 steals in 39 attempts is a remarkable efficiency.

Altuve, like Hamilton, is learning on the job – he never saw a pitch at AAA before donning an Astro uniform. While his current form is too good to be maintained, a player with his speed and savvy, making the kind of contact he is making (23.1 percent line drive rate), is going to be productive. And when a team lacking in overall talent has this kind of catalyst at the top of the order, it does have a positive impact all the way through the lineup. The Astros will not threaten .500, but will continue to be a solid value in a marketplace that shows little respect for them (a blind Houston ticket in every game this season would have you showing a profit of a little over seven full positions).

Marlins – When a little “D” could have made a big difference

With Atlanta and Washington not setting much of a pace, Miami will enter the second half of the season still in the thick of the NL East race. It could have easily been different, given the opportunities that were at hand – in a historic stretch, the Marlins just had five games go 13 innings or more in the same month. But they lost them all, something that no team had ever done. One of the culprits is something that does not jump out from the daily box scores, but certainly does when the overall numbers are crunched – a struggling defense did not enable them to maximize those opportunities. Not only did it lead to those L’s in the standings, but also a carry-over effect on the psyche of the team.

Here is how manager Mike Redmond explained it to the AP – “You play 13 or 14 innings, and you don’t win, it takes on toll on you for sure. We have to figure out how to get that big hit and make that big play to get the win.” How easily would it have been for Redmond to say make that big “pitch” instead of “play”? But the fact that he has witnessed what he has, and subsequently said what he did, speaks volumes. The defense has been awful.

At one game past the halfway point, the Marlins are #29 in PADE, #29 in BABIP allowed (.314), #5 for most errors, #24 in FLD%, #27 in stolen bases allowed, and #23 in SB%. There have been 36 unearned runs, which rates #28.

That is a lot to overcome. They are a respectable #10 in runs scored, with 30 more than the Nationals and 56 more than the Braves, and are #13 in OPS. Their FIP is #8 and xFIP is #14. A team that has been above average offensively, and above average in terms of pitching, is now sitting at 39-43, the result of how bad that defense has been. This is something that you will not easily see in the daily box scores, but make sure it is a part of your thought processes.

Angels – Is it “Buy Time” for Hector Santiago?

The next time Santiago takes the mound the pitching forms will show an 0-7/4.08 in the first column, and you will quickly lose interest, especially after his 4-9/3.56 with the White Sox LY. You might even want to make him play-against fodder. Don’t do that. The fact that the sport has not been kind to him might be creating a lot of value potential going forward.

First, you will note that disparity between his W/L and ERA for 2013, when the White Sox did not generate much support behind him. Of the 97 pitchers that posted an ERA of less than 5.00, only Erik Bedard had a lower Win%, but his 4-12 came with a 4.59 allowance. The league pitched to a 3.87, and Santiago bettered that by nearly a third of a run, despite being a fly-ball pitcher in an unfriendly home park for his style, on the south side of Chicago.

The Angels showed interest, and there was savvy behind that. But after an 0-7 team opening in his starts through May 7, Santiago was demoted to the bullpen for two appearances, and then sent down to AAA. It was not all his fault – the Angels scored 15 runs across those seven games. Now in his return to the rotation it has been a 2.35 over three starts, with more K (16) than Hits + BB combined (12 and three), yet he still has not been credited with a win. Part of it was continued bad support (he shut the sizzling A’s out over six IP, with twice as many K as Hits + BB, but left the game tied 0-0), and on Saturday it was an act of nature, a rain delay in the top of the 5th when he was shutting out the Royals 2-0. Baseball nonsensically gives Saturday’s win to Mike Morin, who worked to a 9.00 over two uninspiring IP, but those are the archaic rules.

So here is Santiago’s bottom line the past two seasons – a 4-16/3.70. The team behind him has gone 9-26, despite the fact that his allowance has been well below league average through the span. After Saturday’s outing, he has been supported with only 65 runs over his last 24 starts, and 16 times over the last 33 it has been two or less.

Here is what you should like. First, obviously the fact that he is under-valued off of those recent distributions. But also that a fly-ball pitcher in the AL West, with the Angel defense behind him (#4 in PADE, and allowing a .282 BABIP), has a legitimate chance for success. The Angels are also going to hit (#4 in both Runs and OPS), which means the 2.6 RPG they have supplied Santiago will almost assuredly get better, and it is also likely that they will add bullpen help before the trading deadline. Hence, some genuine value available from a guy that will not be on many radar screens, and in the wrong place on some of those that do register him.

**TheGame** · 06-30-2014, 12:31 PM

Re: In The Dugout for Monday. 6/30

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

Kershaw's Magnificent Month

Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw capped an unbelievable June in style, tossing seven shutout innings in Sunday's 6-0 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. Kershaw finished June 6-0 with a 0.82 ERA, a stretch that featured 61 strikeouts against just four walks and a 28-inning shutout streak.

That's One Big Dog

Monday's action features only one major underdog play - the Colorado Rockies (+204, 7.5), who face Jordan Zimmermann and the host Washington Nationals. It's the Rockies' first game of the year as a 'dog of more than +200; they went 2-2 in such games last season.

The Price is Wrong

David Price will look to reverse a bizarre trend Tuesday as he leads the Tampa Bay Rays into New York for a date with the Yankees. Price has been a sinkhole for betters so far, earning $-466 - the lowest total for any pitcher whose team actually has a winning record in his starts (9-8).

Pitching Notes

Boston Red Sox right-hander Jake Peavy may be one of the worst value plays in baseball ($-845), but at least he has consistently paid off Under bettors. Peavy enters Monday's game against the visiting Cubs (+125, 8.5) 1-6 O/U in his last seven starts, and 4-11 O/U for the year.

Kansas City Royals ace James Shields has trended the other way as he prepares to face the host Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. Shields is a sensational 7-1 O/U in his last eight starts and 12-4 O/U on the year, tied with Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg for the most Overs in the majors.

Hitting Notes

Houston Astros sparkplug Jose Altuve is heating up, posting four straight multi-hit, multi-steal games to raise his average for the season to .347. The Astros are 3-1 SU and 1-3 O/U over that stretch; they open a series against visiting Seattle (-102, 7.5) Monday evening.

Miami catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia may have some trouble at the plate Tuesday night as his Marlins square off against A.J. Burnett and the Philadelphia Phillies. Saltamacchia has been dreadful versus Burnett in his career ,going just 2-for-17 with 10 strikeouts.
Totals Streak

Oakland Athletics (6-1 O/U): The Athletics came within a hair's breadth of making it seven straight overs Sunday, missing by a single run en route to a 4-3 victory over host Miami. Oakland ends its first half of the season with a league-best 51 wins and a 41-37-3 O/U mark.

Prop of the Day

Bettors should consider going big in Washington, where the Nationals are +400 at -4.5. Zimmermann has allowed just five earned runs over his previous five starts, while Rockies rookie starter Yohan Flande was torched for four runs over five innings in his major-league debut five days ago.

Injury Notes

New York Mets starter Dillon Gee threw 2 2/3 solid innings during a rehab start in Lower-A over the weekend as he works his way back from a strained lat muscle. The Mets are 4-4 SU and 4-4 O/U in Gee's eight starts this season; he's 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA through 52 2/3 innings.

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista grounded out as a pinch-hitter Sunday in his first game action in a week. The Blue Jays went 3-3 S/U, 3-3 O/U and lost 66 units in Bautista's absence; he's expected to return to the lineup Tuesday against visiting Milwaukee.

Weather Watch

Wind at U.S. Cellular Field will be blowing in from right field at 16 mph for Monday's game between the Chicago White Sox (+137, 8.5) and the visiting Los Angeles Angels. Teams averaged just 6.5 runs and 1.67 homers in six games under similar conditions in 2013, well below stadium averages.

Nationals Park will see wind blowing out to left field at 9 mph for Tuesday's matchup between the Nationals and Colorado. The home team went 6-2 SU but just 2-6 O/U in eight games under similar wind conditions last season.

Announcement

In The Dugout for Monday. 6/30

In The Dugout for Monday. 6/30

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