NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/3

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Spurs won 19 games in a row, covered 12 of last 13. Thunderr won six of their last seven.
-- Dallas is 5-0 in games following their last five losses. Clippers won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- None

Series records
-- Spurs lost nine of last eleven games with Oklahoma City.
-- Clippers won six of last seven games with Dallas.

Totals
-- Seven of last eight Spur games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Dallas games went over the total.

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Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/3

NBA Betting Guide and Picks
By: Michael Robinson
Sportingnews.com

The Oklahoma City Thunder are quickly running out of time to catch the San Antonio Spurs in the race for the Western Conference's top seed. The teams play for the final time in the regular season on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, TNT), preceding Mavericks at Clippers (10:30 p.m. ET, TNT). These are the only two games on the Turner network’s exclusive night of NBA action.

Line: Oklahoma City -1.5, Total: 208

The Thunder (54-19 SU, 39-32-2 ATS) are playing well down the stretch at 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games, and they’re 5-4-1 ATS over that stretch. They still trail San Antonio by four games for best record in the conference and are a game-and-a-half ahead of the Clippers for third place.

Coach Scotty Brooks has seen his team survive despite a plethora of injuries. Center Kendrick Perkins (groin) and shooting guard Thabo Sefolosha (calf) have been out since February, while key reserve Reggie Jackson (back) has missed the last two games. Perkins and Jackson, though, practiced on Wednesday. While Jackson may return tonight, Perkins could be back by the end of the week, The Oklahoman reports.

Guard Russell Westbrook is expected to suit up despite still dealing with knee issues. While there is a chance he won’t play even though he’s not on the injury report, the likely scenario is he sits out tomorrow night's game against Houston. His minutes are down to 27.3 per game over the last three.

Oklahoma City is at least well rested, last hosting Utah on Sunday, a 116-96 win as 15-point favorites. Kevin Durant, who scored 31 points, is on another one of his torrid streaks at 35.9 PPG over the last seven.

The Thunder are 8-1 SU and 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine home games, and 31-7 SU and 21-15-2 ATS there this season.

The Spurs (59-16 SU, 42-33 ATS) have created their own breaks, winning a franchise-record 19 straight games (15-4 ATS), including coasting to a 111-90 win at home over Golden State Wednesday as 9.5-point favorites.

Coach Gregg Popovich has one of the deepest benches in the league and has done a great job keeping the minutes down for all his players. The team is an impressive 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back this season.

The Thunder have won and covered all three games against the Spurs this year. San Antonio is 0-6 SU and ATS at OKC in its last six visits there, including a 94-88 loss in November.

The Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings (updated April 1) have top-ranked San Antonio a point better than Oklahoma City on a neutral court.

The Linemakers’ lean: The Thunder have found their way after stumbling through late February/early March, and while the list of teams they’ve beaten recently isn’t an impressive one, they’ll relish the opportunity to end the Spurs’ remarkable win streak. That streak doesn’t mean all that much to Popovich, so it wouldn’t shock us to see him resting guys should San Antonio find itself trailing by a significant margin in the second half. OKC has owned this series, and we expect that to continue tonight. We're laying the points with the home side.

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 211)

The Clippers (54-22 SU, 43-32-1 ATS) ended their five-game road trip with a 112-108 win as 3-point dogs at Phoenix last night. L.A. tonight will be without third-leading scorer Jamal Crawford (Achilles) and reserve Danny Granger (hamstring), both of whom missed last night’s game as well.

The Clippers now return to Staples Center, where they are 31-5 SU and 18-18 ATS on the season. The UNDER is 8-0 in their last eight games there.

The Mavericks (44-31 SU, 39-35-1 ATS) just completed a long, eight-game homestand, going 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS. One of those losses was by a 109-103 score to the Clippers a week ago, when Dallas was a 1-point favorite. Four of those eight home games went into overtime, with Dallas coming up short in three.

Coach Rick Carlisle’s guys now begin a huge, four-game western trip, fighting along with Memphis and Phoenix for the last two playoffs spots in the conference. Dallas is one of the league’s best ATS road teams at 23-13 (19-17 SU).

The Clippers have won all three matchups this year (2-1 ATS), and all three have gone OVER the total as well.

The Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings have the Clippers four points better than the Mavs on a neutral court.

[TheGame]

Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/3

Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The regular season in the NBA is coming to a close, as favorites have dominated of late. On Wednesday night, the favorites went 11-2 straight-up and 9-4 against the spread, including nine games decided by double-digits. Since Monday, favorites have compiled an incredible 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS record, but things won’t be as decisive tonight with four of the top teams in the Western Conference taking the court.

Spurs at Thunder

San Antonio: 59-16 SU, 42-33 ATS
Oklahoma City: 54-19 SU, 39-32-2 ATS

The Spurs were rolling in February with a 40-16 record, but a current 19-game winning streak has basically solidified home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. There’s one thing that San Antonio hasn’t accomplished in this incredible season, which is beating Oklahoma City, as the Spurs have lost three times to the Thunder.

In the first meeting at Chesapeake Energy Center back in November, the Thunder held on for a 94-88 win as 2½-point favorites, in spite of Russell Westbrook shooting 2-of-16 from the field for six points. In the next two matchups at the AT&T Center, OKC pulled off road underdog victories, including a 111-105 triumph as 6½-point ‘dogs on January 22. Since falling behind 2-0 in the 2012 Western Conference Finals, the Thunder has won nine of the last 11 meetings, including six straight wins at home.

In Wednesday’s rout of Golden State, San Antonio improved to 12-1 ATS in the last 13 games with a 111-90 destruction of an unrested Warriors team that needed overtime to beat the Mavs on Tuesday. The Spurs’ defense has stepped up considerably by limiting six of their last eight opponents to 91 points or less, while the ‘under’ has hit in seven times in this stretch.

The Thunder seem to be a forgotten team among the hierarchy of the Western Conference elite, but Oklahoma City has stepped up of late with wins in eight of its past 10 contests. Scott Brooks’ club is coming off consecutive blowouts over the Kings and Jazz, while posting a 6-1-1 ATS record in the last eight home games. OKC has performed well against the cream of the crop in the West this season, posting a 7-2 record against the Spurs, Rockets, and Clippers.

Mavericks at Clippers

Dallas: 44-31 SU, 40-35-1 ATS
Los Angeles: 54-22 SU, 43-32-1 ATS

The Clippers return home following a whale of a road trip that was punctuated by a 112-108 triumph at Phoenix last night, rally from a 17-point deficit as three-point underdogs. Los Angeles concluded the highway swing with four straight wins following a loss at New Orleans to open the trip, as the Clips wrapped up the Pacific Division title for the second straight season. The Clips will try to avoid a letdown tonight against a Mavericks’ team that is fighting with the Grizzlies and Suns for one of the final two playoff berths in the Western Conference.

Dallas suffered a brutal setback in Tuesday’s 122-120 home overtime defeat to Golden State, as the Mavs fell to 0-3 ATS the last three games. Rick Carlisle’s club hasn’t figured out how to solve the Clippers yet this season, losing three times to Los Angeles. In the previous meeting at American Airlines Center last Thursday, the Clippers held off the Mavericks, 109-103, while rallying from a 12-point deficit. In fact, L.A. has erased a double-digit hole in all three wins over Dallas, including a 17-point comeback at Staples Center in mid-January, but the Mavs covered as 4½-point underdogs in a 129-127 defeat.

The Mavs have won six of their last seven games off a home setback, while putting together a 7-2 ATS record in their past nine in the underdog role. Dallas has drilled the ‘over’ in six of the previous seven games overall, while both the Mavs and their opponent has eclipsed the 100-point mark during this span.

The Clippers have covered just two of their last six games at Staples Center, but five times Los Angeles was listed as a double-digit favorite. The ‘under’ is 7-0-1 in the past eight home contests for the Clippers, with all eight of those games finishing with a posted total of 207½ or higher.

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Re: NBA Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 4/3

Game of the Day: Spurs at Thunder
By Covers.com

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

The San Antonio Spurs have won a franchise-record 19 straight games to open up a four-game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Thunder will look to end that winning streak and scratch a game off their deficit in the West when they host the Spurs on Thursday. San Antonio will be playing the second night of a back-to-back but was barely challenged in a 111-90 win over the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday.

The Spurs only had one player (Boris Diaw with 33) go for more than 29 minutes and have been able to get the starters plenty of rest with an average margin of victory of 23.5 points over the last four games. San Antonio could have a little more trouble on the defensive end while dealing with Kevin Durant, who is staring down Michael Jordan with his run of 38 straight games of at least 25 points. The superstar forward needs two more to tie Jordan, whose 40-game streak during the 1986-87 season is the longest in the last 50 years. Durant is averaging 25.7 points in three previous meetings with the Spurs this season.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers in Vegas have suggested a line of OKC -1.5 and a total of 208.

INJURY REPORT: Spurs - F Aron Baynes (Questionable, ribs), F Matt Bonner (Out, calf). Thunder - G Reggie Jackson (Questionable, back), C Kendrick Perkins (Questionable, groin), G Russell Westbrook (Questionable, knee)

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "There are rumblings with player quotes that San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich is going to rest his starters soon because he does not like long winning streaks heading into the playoffs. The Spurs are in a tough spot for their game against the Thunder on Thursday night as it will be on a back-to-back set, while Oklahoma City will have three days off going into that game." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Two of the hottest teams in the NBA coming into this matchup and a possible preview of the Western Conference Final. The Thunder are looking to make a late season push to steal home court advantage throughout the playoffs away from the Conference leading Spurs." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag

WHY BET SAN ANTONIO (58-16 SU, 41-33 ATS, 41-32-1 O/U): San Antonio had a lot of trouble beating other top teams early in the season and dropped each of the first three meetings with the Thunder, most recently a 111-105 setback on Jan. 22. The Spurs have had fewer issues in that area of late and checked off wins over Miami, Indiana, Portland, Dallas, Chicago and Golden State (twice) during the current run. San Antonio locked up the Southwest Division with Houston’s loss to Toronto on Wednesday and is working toward homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs if it can hold off Oklahoma City.

WHY BET OKLAHOMA CITY (54-19 SU, 39-32-2 ATS, 37-36 O/U): Oklahoma City comes in pretty hot as well with wins in eight of its last 10 games and had the last three days off to prepare following easy home victories over the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz. “It’s important to get the work in, but it’s also important to rest,” coach Scott Brooks told reporters. “Most coaches like me want to keep practicing and doing drills and scrimmaging and special situations. You also have to rest the body and mind, and our players understand that we have to utilize all of our days.” The Thunder embark on a four-game road trip after finishing with the Spurs and will play six of the final eight away from home.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
* Spurs are 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Under is 5-2 in Thunder last seven home games.