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**TheGame** · 03-31-2015, 09:27 AM

Re: Final Four Betting

Final Four Betting Outlook
By Jim Feist
Playbook.com

It is a great week for sports fans with the start of baseball, the NBA stretch run, the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana for the national championship. It's clear that it's not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters -- March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch.

For example, North Carolina started 17-4 but as February started the Tar Heels showed vulnerability, losing six of 10. A year ago Syracuse started hot before losing its first game in mid-February. From that point on they struggled to score and win, getting bounced by North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament.

It works the other way, too. A team can have a tough non-conference schedule or need time to work in new pieces, then get hot down the stretch. Last season Michigan State overcame injuries in mid-season before getting healthy - - and hot, ripping through the Big 10 tournament with a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread.

It’s important to examine how a team played with overall stats, but also in three different sections:

1) Early non-conference play

2) Conference play

3) Tournament time

Two years ago, Miami started 22-3 before the national spotlight and a key injury took a toll, losing in the tourney to Marquette, 71-61. The previous year Missouri started 17-0 before stumbling in midseason, while Villanova won 16 of 17 to start the season, then broke down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS.

Kansas always seems to have the spotlight on it. This season they started great, then had some erratic play down the stretch, including losses at Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The previous season the Jayhawks had a late season injury to 7-footer Joel Imbiid (11PPG, 8 RPG), the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, a huge blow.

The Jayhawks may have won the title seven years ago, but nine years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite in the first round.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players toppled Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

Duke has seen its title hopes dashed in recent years, a stunning loss to Lehigh as 11-point chalk and last season getting bounced by Mercer, 78-71. This is nothing new. Gonzaga was taken down by Wichita two years ago, and four years ago No. 1 seed Pittsburgh saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70. A few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future.

Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last 10 Finals Fours?

2014
Florida 53 -6.5
UConn 63 - -126

Wisconsin 73 - 139
Kentucky 74 -2

2013
Wichita State 68 -131
Louisville 72 - -11

Syracuse 56 - 131
Michigan 61 -2

2012
Ohio State 62 - 3
Kansas 64 - 136

Louisville 61 - 136.5
Kentucky 69 -8

2011
Butler 70 - 3.5
VCU 62 - 133

Kentucky 55 - 131
UConn 56 - +2.5

2010
Butler 52 - 1.5
Michigan State 50 - 125

West Virginia 57 - 130
Duke 78 - -2.5

2009
Michigan State 82 - 135
UConn 73 - 4

North Carolina 83 - 7.5
Villanova 69 - 160

2008
Kansas 84 - 158
North Carolina 66 - 3

UCLA 63 - 135
Memphis 78 - 3

2007
Georgetown 60 - 1
Ohio St. 67 - 130

UCLA 66 - 131
Florida 76 - 3

2006
George Mason 58 - 132
Florida 73 - -6

LSU 45 - -2
UCLA 59 - 123

2005
Louisville 57 - 144
Illiniois 72 - -3

Michigan St. 71 - 153
North Carolina 87 - -2

2004
Georgia Tech 67 - 139
Oklahoma St. 65 - -4

UConn 79 - -2
Duke 78 - 144

2003
Marquette 61 - -4½
Kansas 94 - 153½

Syracuse 95 - 153
Texas 84 - -3

2002
Indiana 73 - 134
Oklahoma 64 -6½

Maryland 97 - 168
Kansas 88 - -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 15-9-1 against the number, with 12 dogs winning straight up, including UConn last year. In addition, the games have gone 12-6 to the ‘under’ the last nine years.

You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the season to take a shot with the ‘dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before the above content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last 13 years the ‘over/under’ has been almost equal, 14-12 ‘under’ in the Final Four. The three years before that the ‘under’ prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 20 years, the ‘under’ is 24-16 in the Final Four, with 21 ‘dogs covering while 18 favorites have gotten the money with one push. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side.

Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 16 of the 21 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

**TheGame** · 03-31-2015, 09:27 AM

Re: Final Four Betting

Bettors Gear Up For Final Four
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

The dust has settled from the madness that is March, with only four teams still standing in the NCAA Tournament. And frankly, since the insanity of that opening Thursday morning when top seeds were falling like flies (Baylor, Iowa State, SMU), this tournament has not seen a bevy of upsets.

In fact, the Vegas favorite advanced in 48 of the last 54 Big Dance games (48-6 SU, not ATS) since midday on the opening day of the tourney. For only the second time this century, three #1 seeds reached the Final Four. In this week’s Wiseguy Report I’m going to try to answer the question that everybody is asking: can anybody beat Kentucky; winners of 38 consecutive ballgames since the start of the season.

Since Kentucky is the most hyped team in recent memory, I’ll start with the Wildcats first. Yes, this team won the title in 2012, going 4-2 ATS in the process during the Big Dance. Yes, they reached the championship game last year; an undervalued commodity in March as they covered all four pointspreads on the way to the Final Four.

But this year’s Kentucky team has simply gotten too much publicity and too much hype coming into the tourney. That’s a big part of the reason why they have covered only one pointspread in four tourney games thus far. The bigger betting groups have certainly noticed, with fairly heavy wiseguy money showing against the Wildcats in both games over Sweet 16 weekend.

Perhaps the single most impressive aspect of John Calipari’s squad has been their ability to respond to adversity through stellar execution on both ends of the floor. Look at their thrilling two point win over Notre Dame for a prime example. Kentucky hit their last nine shots of that game as they rallied back against the Fighting Irish. Six of those nine shots were layups or dunks, two more were wide open three pointers. Throw in an impressive display of offensive rebounding, nabbing their own misses at a 40% clip, and the stage was set for a remarkably poised comeback victory.

Kentucky ranks among the Top 2 in the country in defensive efficiency from both two point range and from three point range; a truly elite defense. But the Wildcats defense proved vulnerable against the Fighting Irish. The quickness of the Notre Dame guards was problematic for the bigger Wildcat on-ball defenders – both Harrison twins struggled with dribble penetration; hence the extra playing time for Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker (51 minutes between them). Notre Dame’s guards were repeatedly able to get into the paint, creating good looks by the basket and open looks from the three point line, but Coach Calipari had enough depth and roster versatility to counter.

For all of the incredible offense that Bo Ryan’s Badgers demonstrated in their win over Arizona, the Wisconsin guards didn’t play all that well. Josh Gasser and Bronson Koening combined for only five assists and four baskets for the entire game. Senior point guard Traveon Jackson returned from a two month-long absence and was held scoreless and assist-less in seven minutes of non-descript playing time.

Neither Koenig nor Jackson appear to have the capacity to drive past the Harrison twins the same way that Notre Dame’s guards were able to. The Badgers had the #1 offense in the country in ‘points per possession’ by a fairly wide margin this year, as clearly evidenced by their remarkable offensive showing in the second half against Arizona, but they’ll be hard pressed to match that level of shooting when they face off against the Wildcats.

Seventh seed Michigan State is the only surprise team to reach the Final Four. Frankly, with Tom Izzo making his seventh Final Four since 1999 (more than any other coach or program), the Spartans cannot be considered a major surprise. Izzo is now 7-2 in Elite Eight games (SU), and he has guided Michigan State to 13 NCAA Tournament victories as a lower seed; more than any other coach in history (Rollie Massamino and Lute Olson are tied for second with 11 wins as a lower seed).

Michigan State spent the first three months of the season struggling to find their rhythm. They lost at home to the likes of Illinois and Minnesota on the heels of their earlier loss in East Lansing to Texas Southern. Maryland beat them twice. Nebraska knocked them off. It was not pretty for Tom Izzo and company – until the calendar hit March.

The Spartans closed out the regular season with a pair of wins, including a tough, gut-it-out win at Indiana on senior day for the Hoosiers. They went into the Big 10 tourney and played waaaay above their power rating, beating Ohio State and Maryland, then controlling Wisconsin for about the first 35 minutes of gameplan before falling short in OT.

Here in the Big Dance, the Spartans have been as tough as nails, surviving a very slow start against Oklahoma, while knocking off quality squads from Louisville, Virginia and Georgia; winning all four games by seven points or less. They survived their ‘missed free throw’ debacle game against Oklahoma, hitting all six key free throws to clinch the victory after starting the game 3-10 from the charity stripe. It’s a waaaay overused cliché, but the Spartans really are playing their best basketball of the year right now; a team that is coming together at the right time.

That being said, Duke-Kentucky is the Finals matchup the betting markets expect, the Finals matchup the networks want and the Finals matchup between the two best teams in the country, according to my power ratings. And Duke’s ball pressure defense is primed to give the Spartans offensive flow issues – point guard play is not an area of strength for Michigan State, despite their tremendous perimeter shooting in the win over Louisville

Duke is here because backcourt mates Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook and Matt Jones, along with penetrating forward Justin Winslow have been consistently able to drive into the paint and get good shots for themselves and their teammates. Jones and Cook each played 40 full minutes without a turnover in the win over Gonzaga, and Duke turned it over only three times all game, one of which was a shot clock violation as they were running out the clock on their final possession.

After playing a pair of games in the dismal conditions for shooters at NRG Stadium in Houston. Duke should benefit from the better sight lines in Indianapolis. The Blue Devils beat the Spartans by ten on this floor in the Midwest Regional back in 2013, and they beat them by ten at Bankers Life Fieldhouse here in Indy back in November of this season. To pull off another win and cover against Michigan State next Saturday, they’ll probably need more from potential #1 overall NBA draft choice Jahlil Okafor, who scored only 15 points in 61 minutes of floor time this past weekend while spending extended portions of crunch time on the bench due to his poor free throw shooting.

**TheGame** · 03-31-2015, 09:28 AM

Re: Final Four Betting

NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com

After two weekends of wall-to-wall basketball, full of heart-pounding wins and losses – for teams, bettors and sportsbooks alike – the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four. And it should be just as much of a screamer as the rest of the Big Dance.

You’ve got top overall seed Kentucky (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS) aiming to complete a perfect season, something that hasn’t been done since Indiana accomplished the feat in 1976. The Wildcats got arguably their sternest test all season when they held off No. 3 seed Notre Dame 68-66 as an 11-point favorite in the Midwest Region final Saturday. That gave Kentucky a date with fellow top seed Wisconsin (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS), which bested No. 2 seed Arizona 85-78 as a 1.5-point underdog in the West final.

On Sunday, No. 1 seed Duke (33-4 SU, 22-14-1 ATS) stifled No. 2 seed Gonzaga 66-52 laying 1.5 points in the South final, and No. 7 seed Michigan State (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS) – a 2-point chalk – topped No. 4 seed Louisville 76-70 in overtime in the East final.

So how do things shape up for the Final Four? John Avello, executive director of race and sports for The Wynn, and John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, provide Covers with their insights.

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky (-6.5)

It’s a rematch from last year’s Final Four, which Kentucky won 74-73 to push as a 1-point fave.

“This is one of the lower numbers Kentucky’s had through the whole year,” Avello told Covers, and in fact, the ‘Cats have been double-digit chalk in all their postseason games – in the SEC and NCAA tourneys. “Wisconsin is a quality team, with good shooters outside and great players inside. Now, they need to beat the big dog to have a chance to win the title.

“In my ratings, I had Kentucky at 5.5 or 6, but that just felt a little light to me.”

Lester said his crew batted around a range of numbers before going with Avello’s initial feeling, making Kentucky a 5.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.

“Many believed these were the best two teams in the country coming into the tournament, and you could easily make that argument now,” Lester told Covers. “Kentucky has been a public darling all year of course, but the Badgers have had a lot of square and sharp support throughout the Big Dance.

“Our guys were between 4 to 7 points for this matchup. We shaded toward the favorite because we will need to attract some money on Wisconsin.”

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5)

Duke is no surprise in the matchup. Michigan State is, to a degree.

“You’ve got a team nobody expected to get there this year,” Avello said. “Michigan State has a history of getting through the tournament, but this year didn’t seem like their year. Hats off to Coach Tom Izzo again for the way he gets his team ready to win it all – not to win the Big Ten, but to win it all.”

So what about the number?

“At the beginning of the tournament, Duke would have been favored by 8 to 9 points over Michigan State,” Avello said. “My adjustment has been made. Michigan State is better now than at the beginning of the tournament, but is Duke worse? I don’t think so.”

As with the Wisconsin-Kentucky line, Lester came in a little tighter, with Michigan State opening at +4.5. But he entertained 5.5 and fully expects the number to jump.

“The Spartans just feel like that team of destiny, like UConn last year. But they are overmatched from a personnel perspective here,” Lester said. “Michigan State claws to come back and win games, while the Blue Devils grind to preserve wins.

“I felt like we could’ve made this a point higher, and I’m expecting the number to jump throughout the week.”

**TheGame** · 03-31-2015, 09:28 AM

Re: Final Four Betting

Final Four Preview
By Scott Spreitzer
Sportspic.com

Sixty-four games have been played leaving us with #1 seeds Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and then a mis-seeded #7 Michigan State left to battle for the 2015 National Championship this weekend in Indianapolis.

When handicapping the Final Four, it’s very important to focus on the classic fundamentals. That’s a key factor in why all four of these programs (and all four of these veteran head coaches) are still alive in the brackets. Fundamentals will likely determine who cuts down the nets Monday night. That’s what matters most when championships are on the line!

Let’s take a quick look at each matchup.

Kentucky vs Wisconsin

Better offense: Too close to call, slight edge to Wisconsin
Better defense: Kentucky by a lot

More meaningful depth: Kentucky

Some may be surprised that I’m giving such a large edge to Kentucky on the defensive side of the floor. The media has spent a lot of time this postseason raving about the Wisconsin defense. They were even doing that while all Wisconsin could do was grab and foul Arizona down the stretch last Saturday because the Badgers couldn’t guard the Wildcats!

Wisconsin creates the illusion of great defense by holding onto the ball so long on offense. That creates lower scoring games. But, holding onto the ball isn’t the same as stealing the ball, blocking shots, or forcing opponents into bad looks. When you adjust for pace and strength of schedule, Wisconsin doesn’t even have one of the best 50 defenses in the nation on a per-possession basis (according to Ken Pomeroy’s trusted statistical website). Kentucky is best in the nation after making those adjustments. Bottom line: Kentucky’s defensive fundamentals and skill sets are significantly better.

Who’s going to make more plays on offense because of their mastery of fundamentals? Wisconsin has a shot to do that. Though they are likely to cool off from that crazy second half shooting performance on treys they enjoyed in the Elite 8. Both of these teams have multiple threats and are able to score from all over the floor (and the free throw line). Both work the ball to high percentage spots on the floor.

Kentucky was posted as a 6-point favorite out of the gate because of that superior defense, and because their roster is so deep that they can handle fatigue, foul trouble, and most anything except red hot three-point shooting from an opponent.

Duke vs Michigan State

Better offense: Duke
Better defense: Very close

More meaningful depth: Michigan State

Duke joins Wisconsin and Kentucky on the list of most efficient offenses in the nation because they can beat you inside and outside while protecting the ball. This year’s team has more athleticism than past Duke entries, while maintaining a high basketball IQ and a sense of movement. Michigan State is better than its reputation offensively. The Spartans “plod” their way to effectiveness in a way that doesn’t always please the eye. But, they are a top 20 team in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Michigan State has a better defensive reputation than Duke. That’s once again an illusion created by pace. Duke likes to push tempo when they can. Michigan State is much more methodical, only taking fast break opportunities in the most obvious situations. Once you adjust for pace, these defenses are fairly similar in their effectiveness.

Whether or not depth will be a factor in this one will depend on officiating. You saw Michigan State handle a pair of players fouling out vs. Louisville. Duke doesn’t have that luxury. A tightly called game favors Michigan State, because Duke will have to back off inside. If the refs let them play, Duke’s most dynamic talent will be able to stay on the floor the whole way.

(Quick note on our theme of fundamentals: Duke only suffered three offensive turnovers the whole game against Gonzaga!)

Duke is a market favorite (about 4-5 points on the early line) because of their superior seed, and their superior form in this event. But note that Michigan State beat Virginia in the Round of 32…the team that won Duke’s conference during the regular season.

Of course Saturday’s winners play Monday night. If Kentucky advances as a favorite, they will have a clear defensive edge over either Duke or Michigan State. But, the game they had to sweat with Notre Dame shows that any talented opponent has a chance to hang with or beat Kentucky in a 40-minute war on a neutral court. Odds favor the coronation of an undefeated champ. Fans and bettors just might be in for a very interesting weekend.

**TheGame** · 03-31-2015, 09:30 AM

Re: Final Four Betting

Final Four Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

NCAA Final Four Out

It’s onward to Indy for the Final Four games.

To put the wraps on the 2015 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to Nap Town this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent, dating back as far as 1991 unless noted otherwise.

FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds not favored more than 5 points are 17-8 ATS (Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin)

#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 4-1 ATS as a dog (Wisconsin)

#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss (Kentucky)

ACC teams are 6-1 ATS (Duke)

SEC teams are 0-3-1 ATS (Kentucky)

Big 10 dogs are 3-5-1 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)

Teams off a SU dog win are 5-0-1 ATS (Wisconsin)

Dogs who are 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 8-17-1 ATS (Michigan State)

Teams with revenge are 3-10 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)

CHAMPIONSHIP NOTES

#1 Seed favs. are 8-2 ATS

#5 or worse Seeds are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS

Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-2 ATS

Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final 4 round are 5-1 ATS

Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 2-6 ATS

Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS

SEC teams are 3-1 ATS

ACC teams are 7-3 ATS

Big 10 teams are 0-5 ATS

COACH ME UP

Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is:
65-19 SU and 41-41-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
48-12 SU and 35-25 ATS vs. Big 10
14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS vs. SEC
2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
47-14 SU and 35-27-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
17-10 SU and 13-14 ATS vs. ACC
11-6 SU and 9-7-1 ATS vs. Big 10
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
1-0 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Michigan State’s John Tom Izzo is:
46-16 SU and 36-24-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
13-24 SU and 18-19 ATS vs. ACC
250-122 SU and 206-171-4-1 ATS vs. Big 10
15-4 SU an 12-6-1 ATS vs. SEC
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
1-2 1-8 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
12-16 SU and 16-12 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
24-13 SU and 21-14-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS vs. ACC
189-83 SU and 135-133-4 ATS vs. Big 10
8-5 SU and 7-4-2 ATS vs. SEC
0-1 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
16-12 SU and 12-16 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and Championship games played over the last 26 years.

**TheGame** · 04-04-2015, 06:38 AM

Re: Final Four Betting

Game of the Day: Final Four Doubleheader
By Covers.com

Michigan State Spartans vs Duke Blue Devils (-5, 138)

This year's NCAA Tournament Final Four is a star-studded affair - on the court and along the sideline - and the action kicks off Saturday when Duke takes on Michigan State in the first national semifinal from Indianapolis. The Blue Devils are 8-3 all-time in the national semifinals under legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski, while Tom Izzo has led the Spartans to the Final Four for the seventh time since 1999.

The winner squares off with Kentucky or Wisconsin in Monday's national championship game. Duke, the No. 1 seed from the South Regional, reached this point by holding its first four NCAA Tournament opponents to 53.5 points on 36.8 percent shooting, highlighted by a suffocating performance against Gonzaga in the regional final. Michigan State, the No. 7 seed from the East Regional, has limited the opposition to 33.9 percent shooting and 23.7 percent from 3-point range during its four tournament wins, capped by an overtime triumph against Louisville in the Elite Eight. This game is a rematch from Nov. 18, when the Blue Devils posted an 81-71 victory on this same court as part of the Champions Classic.

LINE HISTORY: Duke opened as -4.5 favorites, but quickly moved to -5. Totals across Vegas and online opened at either 139 or 139.5 before being bet down to 138.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "I've been booking for almost 20 years and I cant remember a Final Four Saturday that we have had smaller decisions than we will this season. We've had 53 percent of bets and 52 percent of cash on Duke in this one." - Mike Jerome of TopBet.eu

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS, 20-15-2 O/U): The Spartans shot 50 percent in the first matchup but allowed the Blue Devils to shoot 54 percent, including 7-of-14 from 3-point range, while struggling to contain Jahlil Okafor down low. "We got our feet wet there," Izzo told reporters this week in reflection of that night, when his team was led by senior forward Branden Dawson (18 points, nine rebounds). "We realized what we weren't good enough at. It gave us a barometer to try to figure out who we are." Who they are offensively is a team that relies heavily on two players - senior guard Travis Trice (19.8 points in the NCAAs) and junior guard Denzel Valentine, who has filled up the box score in the tournament to the tune of 13.3 points, six rebounds and 4.5 assists.

ABOUT DUKE (33-4 SU, 22-14-1 ATS, 18-17 O/U): Okafor, the likely No. 1 pick in this summer's draft, shot 8-of-10 for 17 points in the first game against Michigan State, although the freshman center is struggling of late, totaling 15 points on 7-of-16 shooting in the last two games. “We got better (since November) and they did too,” Okafor told the media this week. “They are a better team. That’s just a game that was part of our journey. It’s going to be a different game this Saturday and we’re looking forward to it.” Okafor is complemented by two more stud freshmen - swingman Justise Winslow, who posted double-doubles in the round of 32 and the round of 16, and point guard Tyus Jones, who registered 15 points in each of the last two contests.

TRENDS:

*Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
*Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
*Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Under is 6-0 in Blue Devils last 6 overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-one percent of Covers Consensus users are on Tom Izzo's Spartans.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+5, 131)

Kentucky is two wins away from an undefeated season, although a familiar road block stands in its path to perfection. The Wildcats are back in the NCAA Tournament's Final Four for the fourth time in five seasons and for the second straight year, their national semifinal opponent is Wisconsin - a fellow No. 1 seed that will attempt to pull the upset Saturday in Indianapolis.

The teams played a thriller in Arlington, Texas, last April with the Wildcats escaping with a 74-73 triumph on Aaron Harrison's NBA-range 3-pointer with 5.7 seconds left. This time around, Kentucky is deeper and more experienced, although it needed two late free throws by Andrew Harrison to prevail against Notre Dame in the Midwest Region final. Wisconsin is likely a better squad as well, led by All-American big man Frank Kaminsky and blossoming forward Sam Dekker. Kentucky leans on the Harrison twins in the backcourt and a collection of athletic big men, highlighted by freshman Karl-Anthony Towns.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Wisconsin as a 6-point dog before taking a full point drop to +5 quickly. Books opened the total anywhere from 133 to 131, but have settled at 131 Friday.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Also can't remember a Final Four Saturday where neither semifinal game has had a line move. Both Kentucky and Duke opened as 5 point favorites and both games are still at -5. 54 percent of cash and 53 percent of bets are taking Wisconsin plus points." - Mike Jerome of TopBet.eu

ABOUT KENTUCKY (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS, 15-23 O/U): The Wildcats are two wins away from becoming the first undefeated team since Indiana in 1975-76 and if the game is close, fans can expect one of the Harrisons to take the final shot. "The biggest thing is you cannot be afraid to miss the game-winning shot. It's not that you want to make it; it's that you're not afraid to miss it," Wildcats coach John Calipari told reporters. "You're not afraid to make a play and it go wrong. You have to have amnesia. You have to be willing to risk. Those two have it. They both have it." Towns certainly was not afraid of the big stage in the Elite Eight, when he shot 10-of-13 for a career-high 25 points after going 0-of-3 for one point against West Virginia in the Sweet 16.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS, 18-20 O/U): The Badgers have won each of their last three games by seven points, including a hard-fought win over Arizona in the West final as Kaminsky recorded 29 points and Dekker set a career high for the second straight game, finishing with 27 points. Kaminsky may win the Wooden Award, but he has plenty of frontcourt help in the form of Dekker and Nigel Hayes while Josh Gasser and Bronson Koenig are also 3-point threats for Wisconsin. "We know what we're up against," Badgers coach Bo Ryan, whose team has won 20 of its last 21, said to reporters. "Our guys are pretty smart guys. They know what it's going to take - a pretty perfect game or close to it, to get these guys."

TRENDS:

*Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
*Badgers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.
*Under is 15-3 in Wildcats last 18 non-conference games.
*Over is 4-0 in Badgers last 4 games following a ATS win.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Sixty-three percent of Covers Consensus users are backing the Badgers.

**TheGame** · 04-04-2015, 06:38 AM

Re: Final Four Betting

Final Four Betting Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke

In the first national semifinal Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Duke and Michigan State will collide in a rematch of a Nov. 18 meeting that was played at this same venue. The winner will advance to Monday's finals to face the survivor of Kentucky-Wisconsin.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books had Duke (33-4 straight up, 22-14-1 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 138.5 points. Gamblers can back the Spartans on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).

Mike Krzyzewski's team is back in the Final Four for the 12th time during his dynastic tenure. Coach K is seeking his fifth national title and his ninth appearance in the finals. His record in the NCAA Tournament has improved to 86-26 (78.6%) with four straight wins in the last two weeks.

Tom Izzo has Michigan St. (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS) in its seventh Final Four on his watch. He has more wins as a lower-seeded team (13) against a higher-seeded opponent than any other coach in NCAA Tournament history. However, we should note that Izzo has lost four of six games in the national semifinals. His career Tournament record is 46-16 (74.2%).

Duke got to the Final Four with wins over Utah and Gonzaga last weekend. Bettors on the Blue Devils as five-point favorites against Utah cashed tickets in a deserved, albeit quite unusual, fashion. Coach K's squad won a 63-57 decision over the Utes as a five-point favorite.

Trailing by seven with 15 ticks remaining, Utah got a bucket from Delon Wright to pull even with the number at 62-57. Moments later, the Utes forced Quinn Cook into a turnover to take control of the ball with nine seconds. With six seconds left, Jordan Loveridge missed a trey that was rebounded by Cook.

Cook appeared to possibly get fouled or tied up for a whistle that would've have resulted in going to the possession arrow. But there was no whistle and Cook broke away and dribbled through traffic. He clearly got fouled with at least one or two seconds left but time expired. Players started to leave the court, as Duke supporters were bemoaning the lack of a call.

As it appeared the game was over and bets on the side would push, the officials decided to look at the replay and determined that there was 0.6 seconds remaining when a foul was called. Players were called back to the court and Cook was sent to the line for two shots.

Then he missed the first. The second was good, though, and Duke backers got the winner.

On Sunday afternoon in Houston, Duke broke open a tight game in the last six minutes and pulled away for a 66-52 win over Gonzaga as a two-point 'chalk.' Justise Winslow made plays galore at crunch time and finished with 16 points to share team-high scoring honors with Matt Jones, who drained 4-of-7 launches from long distance.

Michigan St. has won four tight games in the Tournament over Georgia (70-63), Virginia (60-54), Oklahoma (62-58) and Louisville (76-70 in overtime). Travis Trice has been sensational, averaging 19.8 points, 4.0 assists and 3.3 rebounds per game. He had 17 points, five assists and five boards in the win over U of L in the Elite Eight.

Denzel Valentine had a monster effort against Louisville also, producing 15 points, seven rebounds, six assists, two steals and one blocked shot. Bryn Forbes came off the bench to knock down 4-of-6 from 3-point range in a 14-point effort.

Duke has been a single-digit favorite 12 times this season, compiling an 8-4 spread record. Meanwhile, Michigan St. has been an underdog eight times, going 4-4 ATS with two outright victories.

When these teams met in November, Duke prevailed by an 81-71 count as an eight-point 'chalk.' The 152 combined points soared 'over' the 144.5-point tally.

The game was basically decided at the free-throw line. The Blue Devils went 20-of-26 at the charity stripe, while MSU was just 6-of-10. The Spartans won the battle of the boards by a 33-22 margin, but Duke shot 54.0 percent from the field.

Cook scored 19 points and dished out six assists without committing a turnover. Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor scored 17 points apiece, while Winslow finished with 15 points, six rebounds and three assists.

In the losing effort, Branden Dawson had 18 points and nine rebounds while making 8-of-10 shots from the floor. Travis Trice finished with 15 points, eight assists and six rebounds.

Duke has won nine of 10 games against MSU on Coach K's watch. They last met in the NCAA Tournament two seasons ago at (you guessed it) Lucas Oil Stadium where the Blue Devils captured a 71-61 win in the Sweet 16. They took the cash as two-point 'chalk' behind six 3-pointers from Seth Curry, who finished with a game-high 29 points.

Only Cook from Duke remains as a player who got playing time in that game. He missed all five of his shots from the field and failed to score. Trice made all three of his attempts and finished with eight points for MSU, while Dawson had four points, two boards and two assists in 23 minutes of playing time.

Duke has won four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these programs. The last victory by the Spartans came in the 2005 Tournament when they beat the Blue Devils 78-68 as four-point underdogs. The 'over' is 5-1 in the last six encounters between these schools.

A huge factor in this game could be which teams' best post player does or doesn't get into foul trouble. I'm talking about MSU's Dawson, who averages 11.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.6 blocks per game. He has nine blocked shots in the Spartans' last three games.

If Michigan St. could get Duke's Okafor in foul trouble, it would be huge. Okafor averages team-highs in scoring (17.5 PPG), rebounds (8.7 RPG), field-goal percentage (66.7%) and blocked shots (1.4 BPG).

The 'over' is 18-17 overall for Duke, but the 'under' has cashed in six straight games and eight of its last nine.

The 'over' is 20-15-2 overall for Sparty, 8-3 in its last 11 outings. This is the fifth-highest total MSU has seen this year. In the four games that had higher totals (all in the 140s), the 'over' went 3-1.

Many books are offering proposition bets galore for both semifinal contests. For instance, Sportsbook.ag has 'over/unders' for the stats of key players. One example is Trice's total for points scored is 16.5 (-120 both ways). The total for Dawson's points is 12.5 ('under' -130, 'over' -110).

The offshore website has multiple totals for Okafor, including points (18.5 'over' -130), rebounds (eight 'over' -140) and made free throws (2.5 'over' -185).

Tip-off is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky

Wisconsin and Kentucky will square off in the second national semifinal game Saturday night in Indy. This is a rematch of a spectacular semifinal matchup won by UK last season.

As of early Friday afternoon, most spots had Kentucky (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS) listed as a five-point favorite with a total of 131 points. Bettors can take the Badgers to win outright for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200). For first-half wagers, the Wildcats are favored by 2.5 points with a total of 60.5.

John Calipari's team got quite the scare in last Saturday night's Midwest Region finals in Cleveland. Kentucky trailed for most of the second half and by six with less than six minutes remaining. However, Aaron Harrison buried a huge 3-pointer at crunch time and with the game tied and the shot clock off, Andrew Harrison penetrated into the lane and drew a blocking call.

Andrew Harrison hit both free throws with six seconds left and the Irish's shot at the buzzer was well contested and off the mark. The 'Cats prevailed 68-66 but never threatened to cover the 11-point spread. Gamblers backing Notre Dame on the money line for a 6/1 payout were left heartbroken.

The win sent UK to the Final Four for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Karl Anthony-Towns scored a career-best 25 points to go with five rebounds, four assists, two steals and one blocked shot. Devin Booker scored 10 points from off the bench, splashing the nets with 2-of-3 attempts from beyond the arc.

Wisconsin (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS) has only been an underdog once this season and that was in its last outing vs. Arizona in the Elite Eight. The Badgers improved to 10-0 in games on a neutral floor as they captured an 85-78 win as 1.5-point underdogs.

Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker led the way for Bo Ryan's team, which shot at a sizzling 12-for-18 clip from 3-point range against the Wildcats. Dekker drained 5-of-6 from long distance en route to a career-high 27-point effort. Kaminsky scored a game-high 29 points and pulled down six rebounds.

Josh Gasser added 10 points, two steals, two boards and two assists without committing a turnover.

Wisconsin covered the number in its Sweet 16 matchup vs. North Carolina, but Badger backers were extremely fortunate to cash that ticket. The Tar Heels were ahead of the number as 6.5-point underdogs for the entire game until Wisconsin's last bucket gave it a 79-72 triumph. The 151 combined points jumped 'over' the 144.5-point tally.

Dekker was the catalyst against UNC, producing 23 points and 10 rebounds on 10-of-15 shooting from the field. Kaminsky had 19 points and eight boards, while Nigel Hayes finished with 12 points and six boards. Traevon Jackson got his first playing time since early January, returning from a broken foot to play nine minutes and score four points. Jackson was held scoreless vs. Arizona, but his presence allows Ryan to use an eight-man rotation.

Zak Showalter played just eight minutes off the bench against UNC, but he scored six huge points midway through the second half when Wisconsin surged into the lead.

Kentucky had zero issues in the Sweet 16 round, blasting West Va. 78-39 as a 13.5-point 'chalk.' Calipari improved to 3-8 in 11 career meeting against Bob Huggins, who is one of just two active coaches with a winning record vs. Cal.

UK has been a single-digit favorite six times this year, posting a 3-3 spread record. If this line holds at five, it will equal the shortest number the 'Cats have had this year. As five-point favorites at Louisville back on Dec. 27, they won a 58-50 decision at the KFC Yum! Center.

When these schools met at the Final Four last season, Aaron Harrison drained the game-winning 3-pointer with 5.7 seconds left to lift UK to a 74-73 win as a one-point favorite. Dekker had 15 points in the losing effort, while Kaminsky finished with eight points and five rebounds in 32 minutes of playing time. Kaminsky made 4-of-7 shots from the field.

Sportsbook.ag has prop bets galore. Kaminsky's total for points scored is 19.5 (-140 for the 'under', even money for the 'over'), while Dekker's total for points is 15.5 ('over' -130).

Karl Anthony-Town's total for points is 12.5 ('under' -140), while his number for rebounds is six ('over' -125).

The 'under' is 20-18 overall for the Badgers, but they have seen the 'over' cash at a 7-3 clip in their last 10 games.

The 'under' is 23-15 overall for UK, cashing in three consecutive games.

TBS will have the broadcast at 8:49 p.m. Eastern.

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