Dogs ?

[Winningpix]

I remember saying and believing in "if you don't like the dog in an ncaa tourney game then pass", but I don't have anything to back it up. Does anyone have stats on the percentage of dogs covering and which rounds dogs come in more ? Thanks !

[barrett]

Re: Dogs ?

Be careful here!

Since 2009, teams seeded 1-4 have gone 88-61 against the spread in the first two rounds of the tournament. They are 124-26 in the first two rounds straight-up.

Playing against the #5 seed is a different story. They are 10-20 against the spread the last five years.

[barrett]

Re: Dogs ?

One more thing......if you are into coaches, try these records on for size.

Arizona is 14-2-1 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament since Sean Miller took over its program. In a similar span, Michigan is 15-3 versus the postseason number under Jon Beilein.

[jumperjack]

Re: Dogs ?

Till about 5 years ago if you played every dog in the first round blind in the first round you would have lost money only like 2 years out of 20. I'm not sure what year it was, but one year recently chalk just had an outrageously successful 1st round. I remember because I read a story about a guy who flew to vegas for years and did just what I said, he bet every first round dog. He got killed that one year and stopped doing it. I think as far as filling out brackets there will be almost zero upsets in the first 3 lines. All those top seeds from the lower ranked conferences got snuffed out so the level of team at the 14-16 seeds is probably lower this season. I think there will be lots of value in the 11-13 seeds though. I personally don't think the Big 10 is as good as a lot of experts do. Indiana, Purdue and Maryland could all easily lose their first round games in my opinion. Indiana in particular is being touted by the media as being "hot", but almost all their success this season came at home. Except for beating Iowa twice in the last 10 games (who happened to limp terribly recently), who exactly WORTH A DAMN did Indiana beat in their last 10 games? Maryland has been up and down all year, Melo Trimble is probably the most over rated guy on any tournament team. He rarely plays well.

[jumperjack]

Re: Dogs ?

Seed by seed breakdown for the last 4 years ATS...

#1 vs. #16...6-10 ATS
#2 vs. #15...8-8 ATS
#3 vs. #14...6-9-1 ATS
#4 vs. #13...8-7-1 ATS
#5 vs. #12...5-9-2 ATS
#6 vs. #11...8-8 ATS
#7 vs. #10...10-6 ATS
#8 vs. #9...9-6-1 ATS

[ex50Warrior]

Re: Dogs ?

Interesting stats--thanks!

[Winningpix]

Re: Dogs ?

Thanks for input guys ! That's why I love this site

[jumperjack]

Re: Dogs ?

Last year 1st round underdogs went 21-11 ATS.