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**TheGame** · 03-15-2016, 08:00 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/15

Tuesday's First-Four Tips
By David Schwab

The First Four Round of the 2016 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament gets underway this Tuesday night with a play-in game between the No. 11 seeds in the South Region when the SEC’s Vanderbilt Commodores take-on the MVC’s Wichita State Shockers in a 9:10 p.m. (ET) tip at University of Dayton Arena.

On the undercard this Tuesday night at this same venue is a play-in matchup between the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles and the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights as a pair of No. 16 seeds in the East Region of the bracket starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Wichita State Shockers (truTV, 9:10 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Wichita State -3, Total 136

Betting Matchup

Vanderbilt was a bubble team that did not do itself any favors in a stunning 67-65 loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament as a heavy 12-point favorite. The Commodores still come into this matchup with a 4-2 record both straight-up and against the spread in their last six games and even though the total stayed UNDER the 146-point closing line against the Volunteers, it has gone OVER in eight of their previous nine games.

The duo of sophomore guard Wade Baldwin IV and junior center Damian Jones have led the way all season long for Vanderbilt. Baldwin is the team’s leading scorer with 14.3 points per game and he also leads in assist with 5.2 a game. Jones is a close second with 14.2 PPG and he is also pulling down 6.9 rebounds a game. The Commodores are averaging 77 points and shooting 46.1 percent from the field.

The Shockers also tested the NCAA Tournament’s Selection Committee’s patience with their 57-52 Missouri Valley tournament loss in overtime to Northern Iowa as nine-point favorites. Their body of work in the regular season including a SU 16-2 record in conference play still proved to be good enough. That loss snapped a SU six-game winning streak and Wichita State in now 4-2-1 ATS in its last seven games. The total stayed UNDER 123 points its last time out and it has stayed UNDER in eight of its last 11 contests.

The backcourt pairing of senior guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet should have quite a bit to say about the Shockers’ chances to advance to Thursday’s opening round against Arizona. Baker has a team-high 14.2 points and 4.8 rebounds a game while VanVleet is averaging 12 points and 5.7 assists. Wichita State is well down the list in the NCAA in scoring with 73.2 PPG, but it is the No. 1 team in the country at the other end of the court with a points-allowed average of 59.3 points.

Betting Trends

-- The Commodores are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 nonconference games, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games in the NCAA Tournament. The total has stayed UNDER in 16 of their last 23 games played at a neutral site.

--The Shockers have covered in seven of their last 10 NCAA Tournament games, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the SEC. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five neutral-site games.

--These two last met in the 2005 postseason with Vanderbilt coming away with a tight 65-63 victory as a six-point favorite. The total stayed UNDER the 128-point closing line.

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (truTV, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Florida Gulf Coast -6, Total 149.5

Betting Matchup

The Knights made their way into this play-in game with a run all the way to the Northeast Tournament title including a huge 87-79 upset against Wagner in the championship as nine-point underdogs. They covered ATS in two of their three tournament games and the total went OVER in their last two contests.

Fairleigh Dickinson was the second seed in the NEC behind Wagner with a SU 11-7 record in conference play. Sophomore guard Darian Anderson exploded for 28 points in the title game and he has now eclipsed his team-high 15.4 PPG scoring average in three of his last four starts. The Knights are averaging 77.9 PPG and shooting 46.3 percent from the field. Another sophomore at the guard position that has been a key contributor is Earl Potts Jr. with 14.7 PPG. He added 27 points in the winning effort against Wagner.

Florida Gulf Coast hails out of the Atlantic Sun Conference and despite posting a SU 8-6 record in conference play, it was able to turn a three-game run in its conference tournament into a spot in this Tuesday night’s play-in game. The big win during that run was an 89-56 romp over North Florida as 6 ½-point underdogs. The Eagles went 2-1 ATS in their three tournament games with the total staying UNDER in the first two contests.

In a tight 80-78 overtime win against Stetson in the A-Sun Championship, sophomore Antravious Simmons had a big day off the bench with 21 points and the 10-point favored Eagles shot 52.6 percent from the field. Junior forward Marc Eddy Norelia added 16 points to the winning cause as the team’s leading scorer this season with 17.2 PPG. He had scored 20 points or more in four of his previous five starts including 23 in the win against North Florida.

Betting Trends

-- The Knights are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at a neutral site, but they have covered in five of their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of those seven neutral-site games.

-- The Eagles have covered in 12 of their last 13 neutral-site games and they have gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played on Tuesday. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last 12 games following a SU win.

-- This will be the first meeting between these two teams in recent memory.

**TheGame** · 03-15-2016, 08:01 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/15

NCAA tournament

Play-in games

Tuesday

North Florida beat Robert Morris 81-77 in play-in LY, also a matchup of Atlantic Sun-NEC teams. Florida Gulf Coast is more of a defensive team now than in '13, when they ran to Sweet 16 under Enfield, who is now at USC. Eagles are 20-13 (4 non-D-I wins); they finished in 3-way tie for 2nd in A-Sun. FGCU is 12-7 vs teams outside top 200. FDU also finished in 3-way tie for 2nd; they're 18-14, with win over #139 Towson their only half-way decent non-NEC win. Knights are 5th-youngest club in America, playing almost solely freshmen/sophs.

In five years of "varsity" (#11-seed) play-in games, underdogs are 7-3 vs spread. Wichita State is 24-8; half the losses came when VanVleet was injured in November; Shockers lost 64-60 to SEC's Alabama- they won five of last six games overall, are forcing turnovers 23.3% of time, #5 in country. Wichita is 7-3 in NCAA tourney games last three years. Since '08; Vanderbilt is 1-4 in NCAA games; Commodores have one senior in their rotation- they've got #3 eFG% defense in country. SEC teams are 4-0 vs MVC teams this season, with three wins by 13+ points.

**TheGame** · 03-15-2016, 08:01 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/15

NCAA Basketball Betting Preview

Vanderbilt vs Wichita State March 15, 9:00 EST

While the majority of the teams in the NCAA Tournament already know who they will be facing in the round of 64, there are a few who are still waiting to see who they are going to be matched up against. The Arizona Wildcats will be waiting for the outcome of the First Four game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Wichita State Shockers on Tuesday night before they start their final preparations for the opening round. Either one would represent a tough opponent for Arizona, but you can bet that they will have a preferred opponent in mind. As for this game, these are two decent teams that would probably like their chances against the Wildcats in the round of 64, but before they can play that one they have to battle it out in Dayton, Ohio. This is going to be a fun one to watch.

Why bet on the Vanderbilt Commodores

If truth be told, this is a Vanderbilt (19-13, 11-7) team that has not lived up to expectations. They started the season as a top 25 team, but quickly saw that ranking wiped away. They closed out the season on particularly poor form, losing their last game of regular season before crashing out in the opening round of the SEC tournament last week. It’s tough to see how they are going to be able to bounce back from that, although they will have had some time to practice and try to work out the kinks. This is a team that still has a lot of potential, though, and they are not about to go down without a fight. Vandy are averaging 76.8 PPG, and are giving up 67.3 PPG.

Why bet on the Wichita State Shockers

This will be the fifth straight appearance in the Tournament for the Wichita State Shockers (24-8, 16-2), but it will be the first time that they have had to get in via the First Four route. That makes things a little more complicated, but this is a team that can certainly take advantage of the opportunity that they have been presented. The Shockers won the Missouri Valley Conference regular season title, but ended up going down in the semi-final in the conference tournament. That may be a little bit of a blessing in disguise, as it means they will have had some time to rest before playing this game on Tuesday night. The Shockers are averaging 73.2 PPG, and are giving up just 59.3 PPG.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I find it hard to believe that Vanderbilt can overcome what was a pretty brutal end to their season, and I also don’t believe that their offense can break down a very talented Wichita State defense. I like the Shockers to win this one quite comfortably.

Vanderbilt Commodores 61 Wichita State Shockers 71

**Satch** · 03-15-2016, 10:20 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/15

StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CBB | ALABAMA at CREIGHTON
Play Under – All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 in a post-season tournament game
192-114 over the last 5 seasons. ( 62.7% | 66.6 units )

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CBB Betting Info. 3/15

CBB Betting Info. 3/15

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