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**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:52 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

Final Four Predictions

The college basketball season is underway with plenty of preseason tournaments over the next two months prior to conference action in January. Duke held off Wisconsin to claim its fifth championship in April, while Kentucky failed to finish off an undefeated season by losing to the Badgers in the Final Four. The Blue Devils and Wildcats each lost plenty of talent from last season’s squads but reloaded as usual, but there are a bunch of other schools that are vying for a Final Four bid and several have great cases.

Our stable of handicappers provided their predictions on who they believe will head to Houston for the Final Four in April. Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Maryland were the top teams selected, while Wichita State received recognition from several handicappers to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2013.

NCAA basketball expert Jimmy Boyd believes this will be the year that Maryland rises to the top of the Big 10, “Last year, the Terrapins went 14-4 in their first season in the Big 10, but didn't make a big splash in the NCAA Tournament, losing in their second game against West Virginia. While Maryland loses one of their leaders in Dez Wells, they are well equipped to make a serious run at a national championship. It all starts with sophomore point guard Melo Trimble, who was sensational as a freshman. Senior forward Jake Layman is back after averaging 12.5 ppg and 5.8 rpg. The Terps biggest splashes came in their recruiting, most notably transfers Robert Carter from Georgia Tech and Rasheed Sulaimon from Duke. Should be a special season for Maryland.”

Another Big 10 squad has the ability to ascend to the Final Four as James Manos predicts big things out of Bloomington, “Indiana seems to have all the pieces together for a serious title run. The Hoosiers return every significant contributor from last year, lose ZERO double-digit scorers, and no team in college basketball will benefit more from the NCAA's rule changes than this squad. When G James Blackmon Jr. returns to full health, he'll team with PG "Yogi" Ferrell to form one of the nation's best backcourts. Third G Robert Johnson is poised for a substantial jump in production and every talent grader, scout, and position evaluator calls his off-season improvement one of the best in the country. Head Coach Tom Crean can still coach and with Michigan St., Wisconsin, and Ohio St. all down from recent editions this is his chance to help the program rise…….a Final Four appearance will do that.”

Will there be a shocking development coming out of Wichita this season? Handicapper Joe Nelson believes the Shockers of Wichita State are primed for a title run, “Gregg Marshall is highly respected as one of the top coaches in the nation and his program maintains stability that few mid-major squads can after a run of success. The Shockers won’t be a surprise to have a great season opening up in the AP top 10 and with senior guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet the backcourt will rate among the nation’s best with Evan Wessel also returning and Kansas transfer Conner Frankamp joining the team. The schedule will take some scrutiny come March but it is a schedule that is conducive to 30-plus wins and given Wichita State’s success the past two seasons and the high ranking to start the season they should be able secure a strong seed in the Big Dance. With the national field looking much more wide open than last season there will be more room for a program outside of the typical national power group to make a deep run to the Final Four.”

Final Four Predictions

Team #1 Team #2 Team #3 Team #4

Andy Iskoe Arizona Kansas Virginia Wichita State

Antony Dinero Maryland North Carolina Kentucky Gonzaga

Bruce Marshall Wichita State Maryland Kentucky Iowa State

Doc's Sports Maryland Kansas North Carolina Gonzaga

Greg Smith Virginia Maryland Arizona North Carolina

James Manos Indiana Wichita State Duke UConn

Jim Feist Duke Michigan State Gonzaga Oklahoma

Jimmy Boyd Maryland Duke Iowa State Michigan State

Joe Nelson Kansas Virginia Kentucky Wichita State

Joe Williams Kentucky Duke Gonzaga Iowa State

John Fisher Maryland Kansas North Carolina Vanderbilt

Kevin Rogers Duke Kansas Virginia Kentucky

Kyle Hunter Kentucky Maryland Wichita State North Carolina

Marc Lawrence North Carolina Kansas Virginia Indiana

Stephen Nover Duke North Carolina Virginia Kentucky

The SportsBoss North Carolina Kentucky Kansas Villanova

Zack Cimini Kansas Syracuse N.C. State California

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:53 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

Sportsbooks don't want these five teams to win March Madness
By JASON LOGAN

With conference tournaments coming to a close, the field for the NCAA tournament is taking shape. There are a number of teams going dancing this March that sportsbook do not want to see make a deep run in the bracket.

We talked with sportsbook operators in Nevada and offshore, getting the inside track on which programs hold the most liability to the futures book and which ones would do the most damage should they claim their “One Shining Moment” and win the national title.

Arizona Wildcats (Opened 20/1, Now 12/1)

The Wildcats are coming out of a very competitive Pac-12, so they’re tournament tough. Sean Miller always has a surplus of talent in Arizona, so getting the needed production in big games shouldn’t be a problem.

According to Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook director at the Atlantis Casino Resort in Reno, Nevada, the Wildcats are their only real threat to the futures book with the bulk of the bets coming in at their opening price of 20/1.

Indiana Hoosiers (Opened 50/1, Now 25/1)

The Hoosiers stunned the Big Ten by winning the conference regular season title but then fell on their faces against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. Indiana puffed up its record in the second half of conference play, thanks to some weaker opponents, but failed to step up against the Big Ten’s top teams.

That said, Tom Crean knows how to make March magic going back to his days coaching Marquette, and that hasn’t escaped books, who hold some big liability on the Hoosiers, who took the most money at 35/1 this season.

Xavier Musketeers (Opened 100/1, Now 20/1)

Xavier was supposed to be a respectable program coming out of the Big East, not a four-loss powerhouse that currently has books shaking in their seats. The Musketeers opened as big as +10,000 to win the NCAA and a 12-0 run to start the season caught the attention of savvy NCAA bettors.

According to John Lester, line manager, some players bought up Xavier at 100/1 and steamed that priced all the way down to 60/1, eventually settling the Musketeers at 20/1 – among the favorites to win the national title.

“Xavier has us on edge right now. The Musketeers have looked the part of national champion most of this season and we have a good bit of liability on their futures,” says Lester. “If Xavier wins the national championship, we'll be lucky to break even for all of March Madness.”

Duke Blue Devils (Open 15/1, Now 5/1)

There’s never a shortage of Duke money come March Madness and more will be pouring in on the Blue Devils if they make a deep run in the tournament. Duke bowed out early in the ACC tournament, losing to North Carolina State, but the selection committee has always been kind to Coach K’s kids.

“Duke hurts us a little,” says Chris Andrews, sportsbook direct at the Southpoint Las Vegas. “They have a decent shot to win and they always seem to get over-seeded. A few guys nabbed us there at 15/1.”

Michigan State Spartans (Opened 40/1, Now 5/1)

Tom Izzo is always a threat to take his team to the Final Four – no matter the talent on the roster. The Spartans have been among the nation’s elite all season, and their futures odds have reflected that, but early-bird bettors could have grabbed MSU as big as 40/1 way back in March 2015, when 2015-16 odds hit the board.

There are a number of sportsbooks cheering against the Green and White this month, namely CG Technology and William Hill operations across Nevada. According to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, the Spartans would be their worst scenario and the action on Michigan State has accrued over the course of the season.

William Hill sportsbooks has the highest percentage of money and tickets riding on Sparty, reporting 11 percent of the total futures handle on MSU and 7 percent of tickets written on Izzo’s crew, which wrapped conference play on a six-game SU and ATS winning streak.

Other notables: San Diego State, Wichita State, Texas

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:53 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

CBB Betting: March Madness: The Seeds of Profit

The 2016 'Big Dance' (Round of 64) gets underway Thursday March 17, 2016. History is clear, no number-one seed has ever lost to a number-sixteen seed (124-0). It will happen eventually, maybe even this year, but it's unlikely.

Since 2003, top-seeds sport a perfect 52-0 SU record but with pointspreads close to twenty or higher the norm in the round of 64, things were not as rosy against the betting line as #1's posted a 26-25-1 ATS mark over the 13 year span including 18-22-1 ATS laying 20 or more points.

Taking a look at the five most recent NCAA Tornaments we break down which seeds do best and which struggle against the betting line.

#1 Seed vs #16 Seed
Last year, Villanova (-22), Duke (-22.5) covered the hefty number but Kentucky (-34), Wisconsin (-20) failed at the betting window. The #1 seed has covered 9 of 20 in the round of 64 (9-10-1 ATS) including 5-7-1 ATS laying 20 or more points.

#2 Seed vs #15 Seed
In 2015 the #2 Seed went 4-0 SU in the round of 64 but was a money-draining 1-3 against the spread. Double-digit pointspreads common in these matchups, the #2 Seed is a vig-losing 10-10 ATS the past five Tourney's. One bright spot is when the line is between 10 and 15 points for the #2 Seed. Those teams have covered seven of eleven games. However, laying 15.5 or more points the #2 Seeds are a money-burning 2-6 ATS. 2015 the #2 Seed went 1-3 ATS in the round of 64.

#3 Seed vs #14 Seed
The #3 Seeds were 2-2 SU last year with a cash draining 0-4 mark against the betting line with all four games playing 'Under' posted totals. As with the #2 Seed in this round the #3's are a vig-losing 10-10 ATS. Regardless of betting line, the #3 Seed struggles in the opening round. They're 5-4 ATS as single digit favorites, 5-6 ATS as double digit chalk. 'Under' gamblers have enjoyed success in this matchup cashing 13 of 20 tickets (6-13-1 O/U).

#4 Seed vs #13 Seed
#4 Seed has dominated this round the past three tourney's going 11-1 SU but are just 5-6-1 against the betting line including a cash-draining 0-2 ATS laying 4 to 6.5 points. The 'Under' has been a consistent winner with these two seeds staying 'Under in 8 of 12 matchups, 13-of-20 since 2011.

#5 Seed vs #12 Seed
Althoug the #5 Seed went 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) last year this can be a hazardous pairing. The #12 Seed has won outright in seven of the past 16 matchups. Hand the #12 Seed +3.5 or less they're money in the bank posting a profitable 4-1-1 record against the betting line the past four Tournaments.

#6 Seed vs #11 Seed
Another tough pairing. The #6 Seed and #11 Seed have split the past twenty matchups with the #11 holding a slight edge at the betting window. (11-9 ATS). The #11 Seed has been a solid choice taking +4 to +6.5 coming in at 4-2 against the number.

#7 Seed vs #10 Seed
Since 2011 the #7 Seeds have cashed 11 of 20 (11-9 ATS) and been real money-makers the past three Tournaments at 8-4 against the betting line.

#8 Seed vs #9 Seed
The #8 Seed has had its way in this matchup winning 15 of the past 20 straight-up with a 12-7-1 record against the betting line. However, before blindly jumping all over the #8 beware they're 5-2 ATS as 4 to 6 point chalk but a money-draining 1-4-1 against the spread when handing #9's 2.5 or less points.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:53 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book I - Momentum, Skeds, and Travel
By JASON LOGAN

March Madness is spreading like a damn zombie apocalypse and seems to infect more and more people every year.

The NCAA tournament is one of three rare (and hypocritical) times of the year when the mainstream media embraces sports betting and all its sexy angles - with the others being Super Bowl and the Kentucky Derby. That means millions of people who never filled out a bracket (yes, that’s a form of gambling) or placed a wager on a game before will be breaking the betting seal this March.

Whether you’re one of those new faces on the sports betting scene (in that case, welcome. Nice to see you) or you’re a veteran of many a Madness, our NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible will come in handy over the next three weeks.

BOOK I: Momentum, Skeds, and Travel

Momentum

If you’re filling out your office pool bracket or capping the Round of 64 matchups, the first thing you need to consider before looking at anything is current form. Ask any oddsmaker and they’ll tell you that how a team is playing right now makes up the majority of a spread.

Teams that finished the season strong could have finally figured out their rotation or fixed issues that plagued their games all year. And some coaches, like Michigan State’s Tom Izzo or Kansas’ Bill Self, are all about getting his team to peak at the right time – just before the postseason – so any losses taken earlier in the year should be weighed a little lighter.

Conference tournaments also offer bettors a chance to cash in on red-hot runs. A perfect example was the 2011 UConn Huskies program that played its way into the NCAA tournament with an improbable run to the Big East title, building steam for a Cinderella run to the Final Four and national title. Sometimes the light switch just gets clicked at the right time.

On the other hand, teams that stumbled into the postseason – be it the conference tournament or into the NCAA after taking a bad loss in the league postseason – should be viewed with caution. Bettors need to dissect those defeats and see what was behind those losses.

Often times, an off-night for a superstar or key injury could have played into those games, putting the team in a spot it’s not normally in. Or maybe those losses came by close margins on the road in tough venues.

Sometimes, however, a team simply runs out of gas at the end of a long schedule and doesn’t have enough in the tank to push through the postseason. Looking into things like shooting percentage and turnovers per game in those home stretches can be telltale signs of a tired team.

Non-conference schedule/Weak conference

One of the favorite measuring sticks for the NCAA selection committee is strength of schedule.

For mid-major programs serious about making the tournament cut, who won’t get much attention once league play starts, lining up a solid tune-up slate is key. Finding out which teams have that giant killer potential is a great way to avoid being burned by a Cinderella run and finding hidden value in the tournament spreads.

In the 2014 NCAA tournament, No. 12 North Dakota State out of the Summit League stunned No. 5 Oklahoma in the Round of 64. That would seem like a sizable upset, except for the fact NDSU was just a 3.5-point underdog because Bookmakers knew the Bison’s wouldn’t back down from OU. North Dakota State boasted the 15th toughest non-conference schedule in the country, taking on teams like St. Mary’s, Notre Dame and Ohio State before the New Year.

But battling a slew of challenges to start the season isn’t reserved to teams from small leagues. Major conference programs trying to separate from the pack have been going through a gauntlet of tough non-conference foes in order to prepare for the rigors of league play.

It’s no surprise to see elite programs like Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and Gonzaga take on all challengers early in the calendar. And especially in major conferences suffering through down years, like the SEC and AAC, getting a read on how a team performs against programs outside of its usual schedule is key for capping later round matchups.

In that same vein, bettors and bracketeers should know which conferences were the most competitive and which ones lacked true depth. This can go for mid-majors and the big boy leagues as well. A one-loss conference record for a team from a shallow talent pool may not hold up against a team that went 10-6 in league action but played tough opponents night in and night out.

Heading into this year’s tournament, basketball fans have to question top-heavy leagues like the SEC and Big East while conferences such as the Atlantic 10 provided more consistent competition for its elite teams.

Travel

Depending on where they seed in the NCAA pecking order, and the selection committee’s dedication to competitive balance among their bracket principles, teams can either find itself just miles from campus or on the other side of the country for the first two games of the tournament.

Factoring in any home-court edge is a great way to milk the most out of pointspreads and can be a solid decider if you’re on the fence about who to advance in your bracket pool.

Last year, teams like Kentucky (played in Louisville) and Duke (played in Charlotte) enjoyed short trips and friendly crowds in their opening games while schools like VCU (played in Portland) and San Diego State (played in Charlotte) were forced to hop long plane rides on short notice to play in a faraway venues – both failing to make it out of the weekend.

Getting a grip on which teams can play on the road is also an important task when making your next move. Some programs thrive on a serious home-court edge but flounder away from home. The Indiana Hoosiers have always been a tough team to beat in Assembly Hall but look like a different team when they hit the highway.

Going over home/away splits, accounting for wins/losses, ATS road records, shooting percentage and points allowed should give you an idea of which teams are road tested and which ones will be home sick during the NCAA tournament.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:54 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book II - Droughts, Experience, and Coaching
By JASON LOGAN

March Madness is spreading like a damn zombie apocalypse and seems to infect more and more people every year.

The NCAA tournament is one of three rare (and hypocritical) times of the year when the mainstream media embraces sports betting and all its sexy angles - with the others being Super Bowl and the Kentucky Derby. That means millions of people who never filled out a bracket (yes, that’s a form of gambling) or placed a wager on a game will be breaking the betting seal this March.

Whether you’re one of those new faces on the sports betting scene (in that case, welcome. Nice to see you) or you’re a veteran of many a Madness, our NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible will come in handy over the next three weeks.

BOOK II: Droughts, Experience, and Coaching

Tournament droughts/Bubble teams

For most programs, making the NCAA field of 68 is a big deal, especially when you find smaller programs who have never been to the Big Dance before or major conference members snapping an extended tournament drought. These team offer letdown value in their opening game of the NCAA.

For mid-major teams, that perhaps stunned their conference favorite in their respective league tournament, a trip to the NCAA wasn’t in the cards until that conference championship upset. And many times, these mid-major Cinderellas fall flat in their first game with a sense of accomplishment for just making to the Final 68.

The same fate can easily be in store for major conference programs who have to blow the dust of their dancing shoes following a long hiatus from NCAA play. Despite being a recognizable name, the players can sometimes get caught up in “just being there” and lay an egg when it comes time to perform, not realizing the level of intensity needed to advance in the tournament.

Another group to watch out for are those teams usually shown on CBS Selection Sunday, gathered in the locker room or athletics center to see if they made the NCAA cut or not. Bubble teams that squeaked into the national tournament, either by a late-season run or a few impressive wins in the conference tourney, can also get caught in a letdown after escaping the ax.

Experience vs. Talent

This is one the biggest debates basketball fans – bettors or not – can get into during tournament time. What is worth more: experience or talent? Factor in their worth to the spread and you can quickly get sucked down this worm hole, created by the NBA’s draft rules.

Since players can’t jump to the pros straight from high school any more – needing to be 19 years old and out of high school for a year before declaring for the draft – the freshman class is often the most talented class in college. First-year players good enough for the pros leave school for the NBA – the “one and done” crew – with the leftover, less-talented group forming the sophomore class.

And if those second-year student athletes aren’t good enough to get drafted or play pro ball overseas or in the NBADL, they stick around the college ranks joining a watered-down junior and senior group of players.

Heavyweight programs like Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas get the most exposure, which is an easy sell to a high school kid looking to juice his draft stock in one year of NCAA ball. That’s why you usually see the five-star studs keep landing in the same spots. These are hands down the most talented teams.

Kentucky proved that talent can trump experience with their dominant run to the national title in 2012, fueled by a stellar crop of freshman, headlined by Anthony Davis. But, on the flip side of that argument, the Butler Bulldogs – out of the Horizon League - made runs to the national title game in 2010 and 2011 with a roster loaded with experience (three seniors, five juniors/five seniors, three juniors).

Perhaps the best way to gauge a freshman-heavy team is the supporting cast. If you have a starting lineup with three of four freshman, find out who is the upperclassmen rounding out the lineup or who is the sixth man off the bench? Does this player bring enough experience to steady the young kids and step up when needed?

This year's Kentucky team is among the youngest in the country - ranked second youngest among major conference programs - but those seven freshmen are surrounded by two sophomores, five juniors and senior Alex Poythress, all of which either went to the national championship in 2014 and/or the Final Four last season.

And for a program with a surplus of seniors and juniors, bettors and bracketologist should check into just how weathered those players really are. A group that has lost steadily for two or three years, only to finally make the NCAA, may not know what it takes to get the job done and have only experience losing – not winning.

North Carolina is one of the more experienced teams in the country with six seniors and five juniors on the roster. The Tar Heels were knocked out in the Sweet 16 last season after failing to survive the first weekend in the previous two tournaments. Roy Williams is hoping that postseason experience intersects with his team’s surplus of top talent this March, making for a deep run in the “Big Dance”.

Some may think that an experienced team is used to the long and trying college basketball season, where a younger side may see its players hit the feared “freshman wall”. While this theory used to hold water, the key role of AAU competition (Amateur Athletic Union) in helping high school players get noticed by NCAA scouts has made high-level basketball a year-round season for college-bound players.

So, not only are the top freshmen in the country breaking through the “wall” with ease but at this point in the schedule – if they’re lucky enough to be among the field of 68 – they really can’t be considered wet behind the ears.

Coaching

College sports are often more dictated by who’s on the sidelines than the players on the floor or field. Unlike in the pros, college head coaches have full control over which players they bring in and design a program around the system they want to run. Handicapping a coach is just as important as breaking down a team’s starting five at this point in the season.

Banking on a veteran coach, with plenty of NCAA games under their belts, is a smart move later in the tournament, when the pressure is higher and adjustments are premium with the quick turnaround between games. A first-time tournament coach may not know how to react to the intensity of an opening round game or be clear-minded enough to make key calls need to win.

There’s a reason teams like Michigan State with Tom Izzo, Arizona with Sean Miller, Kansas with Bill Self and Duke with Mike Krzyzewski always seem to be among the names escaping the first weekend of the tournament each March.

For those capping some lesser-known NCAA contenders, take a look at the head coach’s resume and examine their coaching tree. While they may not have taken this current school to the Big Dance they could have been an assistant with a big-name program, getting on-the-job training when it comes to sealing the deal come tournament time.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:54 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book III - Telltale signs of a Cinderella
By JASON LOGAN

Everyone loves fairy tales, which is why more and more people love March Madness. The promise of the Cinderella team has captured the nation’s hearts ever since Jimmy Valvano and the upstart North Carolina State Wolfpack shocked their way to the national championship in 1983.

For basketball bettors, whether you’re wagering on NCAA games or filling out a tournament bracket for your annual March Madness pool, spotting the Cinderella before the clock strikes midnight is the road to riches. While the majority of March Madness aficionados pick their jaws up off the ground, those skilled enough to spot the tournament sleeper are counting their cash and touting a bracket free of red ink.

In the first two books of Covers’ NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible, we explored some overall handicapping tools that will help you get through the tournament. Now, in Book III, we look at key attributes bettors and bracketeers should look for when searching for Cinderella this March.

BOOK III: TELLTALE SIGNS OF A CINDERELLA

Non-conference schedule

Most tournament stunners hinted at their upset potential early into the college hoops season. The only problem is 99.9 percent of March Madness bettors don’t pay attention to the NCAA ranks until Selection Sunday. From the early tipoff tournaments to the conference championships, it’s a wiseguys game.

Before automatically penciling a recognizable program past a lower-seeded mid-major you should take a trip back in time, before the New Year, and see just who these small schools sharpened their teeth against this season, and even the year before.

Looking at previous Cinderella teams like Davidson in 2008 or Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, you’ll find a bevy of big-name programs on their non-conference schedules. The Wildcats, led by Stephen Curry, clashed with fellow Carolina rivals Duke and UNC on the regular and also took on UCLA and North Carolina that season. And the Eagles’ 2012-13 calendar was packed with notable names like Duke, St. John’s, Iowa State, and VCU.

Potential Cinderellas don’t necessarily have to knock off those Goliaths during non-conference competition, with the experience of playing at that high level preparing them for tournament time. Mid-majors with plenty of major conference foes on the docket are less likely to be overwhelmed by their opponents in the opening rounds of March Madness.

How those underdogs did against the spread versus serious non-conference competition is also, at the very least, a solid indicator of a sleeper bet early in the tournament. That 2007-08 Davidson team was 0-4 SU versus UNC, Duke, UCLA and NC State but covered the spread in each of those non-conference games. The Wildcats would go on to run through Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Wisconsin in the tournament before losing to eventual-champ Kansas by two points in the Elite Eight – going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance.

Playmakers/Game breakers

The top talents in the NCAA making the jump to the pros each year come from the same NBA-factory programs like Kentucky, Duke and North Carolina. However, there are always one or two mid-major guys, playing under the radar all year, that sneak into the first round of the draft. And often times, an impressive display on the national stage is what got those players from smaller schools recognized.

There are a handful of current and former NBA players that sparked a Cinderella upset during their college days, like Curry at Davidson, Courtney Lee at Western Kentucky, Eric Maynor at VCU, Gordon Hayward at Butler, and Adam Morrison at Gonzaga. Having the best player on the floor can sometimes be enough. A go-to guy keeps opponents honest on defense and makes the big shot, which is key for Cinderellas.

It's the reason "Ali Farokhmanesh" is a household name among March Madness fans.

3-point shooting/rebounding/defense

When breaking down Cinderellas from a statistical approach, some of the more common numbers that pop up are terrific 3-point shooting, the ability to rebound and keep opponents off the boards, and a defense that can hold up against talent-stuffed favorites.

The ability to knock down the 3-ball is very important for underdog teams, allowing them to keep pace with a bigger stronger opponent who may be able to bully their way to the basket for easy looks. A perfect example is Northern Iowa’s upset over Kansas (hinted at above) in the second round of the 2010 NCAA tournament. The Panthers sunk nine 3-pointers in that game and left a towering KU frontcourt powerless.

In Norfolk State’s Round of 64 upset of Missouri in 2012 – a No. 15 over No. 2 seed – the Spartans dominated the glass, pulling down 35 boards with 14 on the offensive end (including a game-winning tip-in) while holding the Tigers to just 23 totals rebounds and only six offensive boards. Norfolk State scored 16 second-chance points on those offensive putbacks, and free points can turn any mid-major team into a potential giant killer - or at least a spread coverer.

On the defensive side of the ball, a mid-major program that prides itself on defense can often turn those stops and turnovers into easy buckets. George Mason nearly rode its hard-nosed defense all the way to the national title game in 2006. The Patriots, who ranked 21st in defense (60.1 points against per game), shut down super powers Michigan State, and North Carolina in the first two games of the tournament and held Wichita State to 55 points before winning an overtime shootout with UConn in the Elite Eight.

Different styles/matchups

Half of the success of Cinderella schools is that they found favorable matchups in their opening round opponents, going against teams that have never faced an offense or defense like that presented or get stuck in a bad mismatch of pace, which can shake a team out of its game plan. This goes back to Paul Westhead’s up-tempo offense with Loyola Marymount in the late 1980’s.

The most recent example of this are the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, who used a run-and-gun style of play against the Georgetown Hoyas’ methodical Princeton offense in the Round of 64 in the 2013 NCAA tournament. The Eagles put the Hoyas on their heels, forced them out of their tempo and capitalized on 14 turnovers with fastbreak finishes.

The VCU Rams burst on to the national scene with a run in the 2011 NCAA tournament, backed behind head coach Shaka Smart’s havoc defense. The Rams went with all-out 55, full-court pressure defense, making it tough for opponents to inbound the ball, advance over half, and get into an offensive set with enough time left on the shot clock to get the look they wanted. Virginia Commonwealth forced a total of 69 turnovers in its first five NCAA games (including the play-in) for an average of 13.8 takeaways before losing to Butler in the Final Four.

When trying Cinderella’s slipper on this year’s tiny dancers, get to know the team philosophy and what sets them apart from the pack. Then measure that approach – either on offense or defense – against what their opening-round matchup brings to the table and the types of playbooks and defensive schemes they’ve dealt with during conference play (Do they milk each possession? How have they gone against a lot of zone or pressure-heavy teams?).

Teams playing on Thursday and Friday don’t have a lot of time for film study between Selection Sunday and the opening tip, especially coordinating a small army of players, coaches, assistants and training staff to travel on short notice. Perhaps Cinderella's greatest weapon is the element of surprise.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:55 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

The 68 things you need to know before betting on March Madness
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Let’s start with the basics: A No. 16-seed has never beaten a No. 1-seed, only seven No. 15-seeds have had success over a No. 2-seed, no team seeded 13th or lower has ever reached the Elite Eight, and only three teams seeded 11th or lower have ever reached the Final Four.

In addition, no team seeded ninth or lower has ever won the NCAA tournament, with No. 8-seed Villanova (1985) still standing as the biggest shocker in college basketball history to win the dance.

Now that we’ve gotten an introductory lesson out of the way, let’s move on to some advanced concepts, shall we?

1. Kansas Jayhawks (30-4 SU, 20-11 ATS, 11-19-1 O/U): 2016 marks the sixth time in the last 10 years that the Jayhawks have landed a No. 1 seed, with the other four years in question featuring three No. 2 seeds and one No. 3 seed. The Jayhawks enter the tournament as perhaps the hottest team in the nation following a 14-game winning streak that included an 11-3 record against the spread.

1. North Carolina Tar Heels (28-6 SU, 16-17-1 ATS, 17-17 O/U): This is the sixth time the Tar Heels have earned a No. 1 seed under head coach Roy Williams. Of those six instances, two have resulted in national championships, one resulted in a trip to the Final Four and two others resulted in Elite Eight appearances. North Carolina is one of the best first-half teams in the country, as evidenced by the team’s first-half scoring average (39.5 pts, 7th in NCAA) and first-half scoring margin of victory (+6.6 pts, 17th in NCAA).

1. Virginia Cavaliers (26-7 SU, 17-14 ATS, 12-19 O/U): This is a methodical offense that consistently produces low-scoring finals, as evidenced by Virginia’s 12-19 O/U record this season. Of 351 NCAA teams tracked, Virginia ranks dead last in the country in possessions per game (62.4).

1. Oregon Ducks (28-6 SU, 19-12 ATS, 14-17 O/U): Since falling in back-to-back Bay Area matchups against California and Stanford, respectively, the Ducks have shifted into high gear and now own an eight-game winning streak (5-3 ATS) in which they’ve outscored the opposition by 12.2 points per game. This is one of the deadliest offenses in the country (119.4 points per 100 possessions, fifth in NCAA), but the defense is cause for concern at times (97.4 points per 100 possessions, 50th in NCAA).

2. Michigan State Spartans (29-5 SU, 22-11 ATS, 16-17 O/U): This will be the trendiest non-No. 1 seed pick to win and for good reason. No team in the country finished the season with a larger scoring margin than Sparty (+16.8), in addition to the fact that Michigan State ranked first in assists per game (20.7) and first in three-point percentage (.435). However, be advised that no team that shoots more than 35 percent of its attempts from 3-point range has won the tournament in 13 years. Sparty shot 35.3 percent of its shots from 3-point range this season.

2. Oklahoma Sooners (25-7 SU, 12-18 ATS, 13-17 O/U): The Sooners live and die by the 3-point shot more than any other team near the top of the bracket, as 38.9 percent of Oklahoma’s points were scored from behind the line this season (12th-most in NCAA). Battle tested, but they’ve failed to cover the number in five straight and nine of their last 11.

2. Villanova Wildcats (29-5 SU, 15-17-1 ATS, 17-15-1 O/U): The Wildcats rank seventh in adjusted defense (93.0 points per 100 possessions) and 11th in adjusted offense (117.2 points per 100 possessions), but faced a weaker overall schedule when compared to the other high seeds and were upset by Seton Hall 69-67 in the Big East final. Have failed to cover the number in six of their last eight outings, but rank second in the NCAA in free-throw percentage (77.7 percent).

2. Xavier Musketeers (27-5 SU, 19-13 ATS, 21-11 O/U): Upset by upstart Seton Hall 87-83 in the Big East Tournament despite closing as a 5-point favorite, Xavier enters March Madness having failed to cover the number in three of its last four outings. But take note that the Musketeers excel at getting to the stripe, as Xavier was fouled an average of 23.1 times per game this season, good for most in the entire country.

3. West Virginia Mountaineers (26-8 SU, 20-11 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U): Not only has Bob Huggins’ crew covered the spread in six of its last seven outings, but West Virginia enters March Madness having forced their opponents into more turnovers (18.1 per game) than any other program in the country.

3. Utah Utes (26-8 SU, 16-15-1 ATS, 18-13-1 O/U): The Utes are 7-2 ATS over their last nine games overall and 4-0-2 ATS over their last six matchups against Mountain West opposition. Had a nine-game winning streak snapped in the Pac-12 championship game thanks to an 88-57 blowout against top-seed Oregon.

3. Miami Hurricanes (25-7 SU, 18-12-1 ATS, 15-16 O/U): As 5-foot-11 PG Angel Rodriguez goes (11.7 pts, 4.4 assists), so go the Hurricanes. Won eight of 10 games to close out the regular season before losing to Virginia in the second round of the ACC tournament. KenPom.com ranks Miami 12th in adjusted offense, but just 44th in adjusted defense. Take note that 2016 is the 10-year anniversary of when current Miami head coach Jim Larranaga guided George Mason to an improbable berth in the Final Four.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (26-8 SU, 15-12-2 ATS, 12-17 O/U): If they get hot from deep, look out. Won their final six regular season games to claim the conference, but fell to Kentucky in overtime of the SEC title game, 82-77. Keep an eye on freshman big man Tyler Davis (11.1 points, 6.1 rebounds), who is a big reason why this program currently ranks 12th in adjusted defense (93.7 points surrendered per 100 possessions).

4. Iowa State Cyclones (21-11 SU, 15-13-1 ATS, 13-15-1 O/U): A nine-game winning streak to commence the season eventually transitioned into a 12-game stretch to close the year in which the Cyclones dropped seven matchups (5-7 ATS). On the plus side, only two teams in the entire country (Texas Southern, Northern Iowa) committed fewer fouls per game than Iowa State this season (15.5 fouls/game).

4. California Golden Bears (23-10 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 16-17 O/U): Too bad California can’t play any tournament games at Hass Pavilion, as the Golden Bears went a perfect 18-0 at home this season. However, Cuonzo Martin’s program finished just 5-10 away from the Berkeley campus, which included a March 3 heartbreaking defeat at Arizona by the final score of 64-61.

4. Kentucky Wildcats (26-8 SU, 18-16 ATS, 19-14-1 O/U): Led by the best point guard in America in Tyler Ulis (17.2 points, 7.2 assists), the Wildcats enter March Madness having won and covered in five straight contests. The opposition can’t afford to lose track of freshman guard Jamal Murray (20.1 points, 5.1 rebounds), who can burn you from deep in a hurry (42.1 percent from three-point range). Predictably, head coach John Calipari was pissed off about his team’s draw in the tournament.

4. Duke Blue Devils (23-10 SU, 13-17-2 ATS, 14-18 O/U): Freshman guard Brandon Ingram (16.8 points, 6.8 rebounds) could be the No. 1 overall pick in this summer’s NBA draft. However, note that the Blue Devils went 3-4 SU over their final seven contests and failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games. This is a Top-25 three-point shooting team (38.7 percent) that ranks fourth in the NCAA in first-half scoring (40.6 points per game).

5. Maryland Terrapins (25-8 SU, 15-16-1 ATS, 12-19-1 O/U): One of the most lethal starting fives in the country, assuming they are on the same page. The Terrapins were a streaky group this season, winning 15 of 16 to open the year before dropping five of eight to close out their campaign. Could go all the way to the Final Four or see their hopes dashed before the end of opening weekend. A second-round date with California in Spokane would be must-see television.

5. Baylor Bears (22-11 SU, 12-14-1 ATS, 15-12 O/U): They pass the ball as well as any team in the nation (17.8 assists/gm, 7th in NCAA) and are battle-tested coming out of the Big 12, with marquee wins over Iowa State and Texas, but with multiple defeats suffered at the hands of West Virginia, Kansas and Oklahoma. Senior forward Taurean Prince (15.5 points, 6.1 rebounds) is the NBA prospect to keep an eye on here.

5. Indiana Hoosiers (25-7 SU, 17-15 ATS, 15-17 O/U): Credit head coach Tom Crean for turning a disappointing 5-3 start to the season into a 20-4 closeout that included a Big Ten regular season championship. The Hoosiers enter tournament play having covered the number in four of their last six outings thanks to a high-octane offense (82.3 pts/gm, 11th in NCAA) led by senior guard Yogi Ferrell (17.0 points, 5.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds). Be advised that a possible second-round date with Kentucky looms large.

5. Purdue Boilermakers (26-8 SU, 18-11-1 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Fifth in the NCAA in assists (17.8 per game), 10th in rebounding (41.2 per game) and 18th in adjusted defense (94.5 points surrendered per 100 possessions), Purdue should be respected if not feared in the Midwest Region. Seven-foot senior center A.J. Hammons, 7-foot-2 sophomore center Isaac Hayes and 6-foot-9 freshman forward Caleb Swanigan will make life miserable for those who try to penetrate. Big-time dark horse candidate right here.

6. Texas Longhorns (20-12 SU, 16-15 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): What you need to know about Texas is that Shaka Smart’s program is the most battle-tested team in the nation, with a strength of schedule Pythagorean rating of .7732, according to KenPom.com.

6. Arizona Wildcats (25-8 SU, 16-17 ATS, 22-11 O/U): A top-notch scoring unit that ranks 17th in adjusted offense (116.1 points per 100 possessions) and 31st in 3-point efficiency (38.3 percent), but struggles on the other end of the floor (69.0 points per game allowed, 102nd in NCAA). Take note that the Over has hit in 66.6 percent of all Arizona games this season. However, the Wildcats failed to cover the number in seven of their last nine outings and must travel all the way to Providence, Rhode Island for opening weekend.

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (21-11 SU, 14-15-1 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Tough to handicap due to their inconsistent nature, as the Irish were up and down all season while never winning more than four consecutive games during any stretch. Offense isn’t the problem (117.8 points per 100 possessions, 10th in NCAA), but the defense leaves a lot to be desired (103.7 points surrendered per 100 possessions, 172nd in NCAA). The player to watch is junior guard Demetrius Jackson (15.5 points, 4.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds).

6. Seton Hall Pirates (25-8 SU, 23-9 ATS, 14-18 O/U): One of the most profitable programs in all the land (23-9 ATS), Seton Hall caught fire down the stretch with nine wins over their last 11 regular season games before scorching Creighton, Xavier and Villanova in the Big East tournament en route to a conference championship. The Pirates have covered the number in six of their last seven outings, are in the big dance for the first time in a decade and have one of the most bankable big men in basketball in Angel Delgado (10.0 points, 9.4 rebounds). Watch out.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes (21-10 SU, 14-14 ATS, 14-14 O/U): Raced out to a 19-4 start before running out of gas at the end of the season, resulting in a 2-6 mark over the program’s final eight games which included a first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament. Even worse, Iowa covered the number just once over its final eight contests this season. Hard to get behind a team in such poor form at such a critical time.

7. Oregon State Beavers (19-12 SU, 16-13-1 ATS, 20-10 O/U): This is Oregon State’s first tournament appearance in 26 years, so you know the program is stoked to be here, no matter the first-round opponent (vs. VCU in Oklahoma City). The Beavers cash a lot of Over tickets (20-10 O/U, seven Overs in last eight games) and feature one hell of a senior guard in Gary Payton II (son of The Glove), who is averaging 15.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game this season.

7. Wisconsin Badgers (20-12 SU, 16-16 ATS, 14-18 O/U): Back in the dance despite the shocking retirement of head coach Bo Ryan in December. Got bounced from the Big Ten tournament by Nebraska in the first round, but take note that the Badgers have covered the number in 10 of their last 14 outings. Junior forward Nigel Hayes (16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists) is what makes Wisconsin tick.

7. Dayton Flyers (25-7 SU, 13-17-1 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U): Nothing about this offense will excite you, but that’s just fine because Dayton is all about getting stops, as evidenced by the fact that this program ranks 14th in the nation in adjusted defense (93.8 points per 100 possessions). The good news is that the Flyers are 12-1 this season when the roster is 100 percent healthy, which is expected for Thursday’s opening round game against Syracuse. The bad news is that Dayton has covered the spread just once over their last 10 outings.

8. Colorado Buffaloes (22-11 SU, 19-11 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Covered the spread in six of their final seven contests entering March Madness and the argument could be made that this is the most underrated team in the tournament. One of the best rebounding teams in the nation (42.4 rebounds/gm, 4th in NCAA) thanks, in large part, to the play of 6-foot-10 senior forward Josh Scott (16.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists).

8. St. Joseph’s Hawks (27-7 SU, 22-10-1 ATS, 19-13-1 O/U): The Atlantic 10 champions failed to cover in four of their final five games to close out the regular season, but went 3-0 both SU and ATS in conference tournament play despite closing as underdogs in two of three matchups. Note that St. Joe’s has been on a scoring spree as of late, recording 82 or more points eight times over their final 12 contests while averaging 82.6 points per game during that aforementioned 12-game stretch.

8. USC Trojans (21-12 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 18-14-1 O/U): The Trojans enter the tournament having dropped seven of their last 10 games while failing to cover the spread in 10 of their last 15 contests. Junior guards Julian Jacobs (11.8 points, 5.5 assists, 4.9 rebounds) and Katin Reinhardt (11.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists) are an underrated duo without question, but Providence is going to give this team all it can handle in the Round of 64.

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (19-12 SU, 15-13 ATS, 15-13 O/U): Big 12 Coach of the Year Tubby Smith has an explosive offense at his disposal that’s very bankable from the free-throw line (74.6 percent, 28th in NCAA). But the problems lie on the other end of the court where the Red Raiders rank 93rd in adjusted defense (100.1 points per 100 possessions). Have lost three of four entering March Madness, but do own a marquee victory over Buddy Hield and Oklahoma (February 17).

9. Connecticut Huskies (24-10 SU, 16-13-1 ATS, 13-16-1 O/U): At 78.0 percent, this is the best free-throw shooting team in the nation. Be advised that the Huskies rank just 303rd in the country in free-throw attempts (574), meaning UConn’s biggest strength has not been utilized nearly enough.

9. Cincinnati Bearcats (22-10 SU, 12-16 ATS, 10-17-1 O/U): Nothing fancy, just a solid, veteran-led squad that plays quality defense (62.9 points/gm, 10th in NCAA) and cleans up the glass (39.4 rebounds/gm, 39th in NCAA). The Bearcats won nine of their final 13 games preceding the tournament, but have covered the number just twice in their last seven outings.

9. Providence Friars (23-10 SU, 18-14 ATS, 19-13 O/U): The Friars boast an excellent one-two punch in two-way junior guard Kris Dunn (16.0 points, 6.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds) and sophomore forward Ben Bentil (21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds), but are too dependent upon the deep ball for scoring. Won four of five entering March Madness while covering five consecutive point spreads.

9. Butler Bulldogs (21-10 SU, 16-14-1 ATS, 16-13-1 O/U): The Bulldogs rank 19th in adjusted scoring (115.6 points per 100 possessions) and feature a big-time threat from 3-point range in senior guard Kellen Dunham (16.3 points, 42.8 percent from deep). They also enter the tournament having covered the spread in eight of their last 10 outings, with five of their last six contests going Over the total.

10. Temple Owls (21-11 SU, 17-13 ATS, 15-14-1 O/U): Won 10 of their final 13 games to qualify for March Madness, but the Owls are the lowest rated team (No. 86) to reach the tournament, according to Ken Pomeroy. The upside? Temple committed fewer turnovers (9.0 turnovers/gm) than any other team in the country this season.

10. VCU Rams (24-10 SU, 20-9 ATS, 14-15 O/U): Without question one of the most profitable teams in the country at 20-9 ATS on the season, the Rams still play quality defense under new head coach Will Wade, as evidenced by the fact that VCU ranked 22nd in adjusted defense this season (95.0 points per 100 possessions). The player to watch is senior guard Melvin Johnson (17.4 points, 2.6 rebounds).

10. Pittsburgh Panthers (21-11 SU, 12-17 ATS, 13-16 O/U): A solid rebounding team that works the ball around the court with the best of them (16.9 assists/gm, 14th in NCAA), Pitt has failed to cover the number in seven of its last nine outings and has lost three of its last four entering the tournament. The Panthers could get by Wisconsin in the first round, but that would likely set up a daunting date with No. 2 seed Xavier.

10. Syracuse Orange (19-13 SU, 16-15 ATS, 17-14 O/U): Very lucky to be here when you consider the Orange dropped five of their final six games to close out the season, not to mention the fact that they suffered a horrific loss to a lousy St. Johns team back on December 13. If Jim Boeheim’s crew has any hope of advancing, it will have to come on the defensive end of the floor where Syracuse ranked 38th this season in adjusted defense (96.4 points per 100 possessions).

11. Northern Iowa Panthers (22-12 SU, 19-13-1 ATS, 13-20 O/U): One of the hottest teams in the nation entering the tournament, Northern Iowa won 12 of their final 13 games of the season while going 11-1-1 ATS in the process. The Panthers love to play a slow, methodical style of basketball, as evidenced by the fact that Ben Jacobson’s program ranked 347th out of 351 schools in possessions per game this season (65.0).

11. Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS, 16-15 O/U): They can score (79.7 pts/gm, 28th in NCAA), rebound (39.6 rebounds/gm, 33rd in NCAA) and defend (66.2 pts allowed/gm, 48th in NCAA), but Mark Few’s squad still needed an automatic bid to qualify for the Big Dance this season. Despite the low seed, Gonzaga checks two key boxes for us: They can knock down the 3-pointer (.378, 40th in NCAA) and are solid from the free-throw line (.760, 12th in NCAA).

11. Vanderbilt Commodores (19-13 SU, 15-15 ATS, 15-14-1 O/U): The Commodores won six of their final nine games to close out the season, but does a team with 13 losses really deserve an at-large bid to the tournament? At the very least we’ll get one more game of Wade Baldwin IV (14.3 points, 5.2 assists, 4.0 rebounds) and Damian Jones (14.2 points, 6.9 rebounds) - two NBA talents who could grind Vandy past Wichita State.

11. Wichita State Shockers (24-8 SU, 18-12 ATS, 13-16-1 O/U): No team in the country surrendered fewer points per game this season than the Shockers (59.3 pts/gm, first in NCAA). But more importantly, this is the fourth and final trip to the tournament for senior guards Fred VanVleet (12.0 points, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds) and Ron Baker (14.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists). Battle tested and without question better than their current seeding indicates.

11. Michigan Wolverines (22-12 SU, 16-16 ATS, 19-12-1 O/U): Quality wins over Texas, Indiana, Purdue and Maryland have the Wolverines back in the dance despite an offense that ranks 148th in the nation in scoring (74.3 pts/gm). Take note that despite the fact that the Over is 19-12 in Michigan games this season, the Under has hit in four of the program’s last five outings.

11. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (20-11 SU, 14-13-3 ATS, 17-13 O/U): Got in over Monmouth, San Diego State, St. Mary’s and other more qualified programs because, well, you’re guess is as good as ours. Tulsa ranked outside the Top 120 in scoring offense and scoring defense, doesn’t rebound particularly well, and failed to cover the spread in four of their final five outings. Not much to get excited about here.

12. South Dakota State Jackrabbits (26-7 SU, 15-14 ATS, 14-15 O/U): In the tournament for the third time in the last five years, South Dakota State won six straight to conclude the season, but failed to cover the spread in three of its last four. This is one of the dance’s better free-throw teams at 73.9 percent (37th in NCAA).

12. Yale Bulldogs (22-6 SU, 11-6-2 ATS, 11-8 O/U): They rebound well (40.4 rebounds/gm, 20th in NCAA) and play defense even better (63.1 pts/allowed, 12th in NCAA), but a first-round matchup with the Big 12’s Baylor spells disastrous. One big plus for the Bulldogs: That first-round matchup takes place in their backyard of Providence, Rhode Island.

12. Chattanooga Mocs (29-5 SU, 16-13 ATS, 14-13-2 O/U): The Mocs have tasted defeat just twice over their last 18 games, but have covered the spread only once in their last six outings. Aggressive on defense, Chattanooga ranked 31st in the country this season in steals (7.79 steals/gm).

12. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (29-4 SU, 19-10 ATS, 10-19 O/U): The Trojans rank 343rd in the country out of 351 teams in terms of possessions per game (65.8), so it’s no surprise to see the Under has hit in 19 of 29 lined games. Winners of 14 of its last 16 contests, don’t be surprised to see Chris Beard’s team give Purdue all it can handle in the Round of 64.

13. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (27-5 SU, 14-12 ATS, 13-12-1 O/U): Their stellar 2015-2016 campaign deserves far better than a first-round matchup with NBA talent-rich California. Hawaii likes to bang inside and does a nice job distributing the rock (15.8 assists/gm, 38th in NCAA). Won 11 of 13 to close out the season, but covered in just two of their final seven matchups.

13. Stony Brook Seawolves (26-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Averaged 82 points per game during their three-game run through the America East Conference tournament, which featured a 15-point come-from-behind victory over Vermont in the title showdown. The Seawolves rank 61st in adjusted defense (98.4 points per 100 possessions) and will need every bit of that and more in the Round of 64 if they want any shot of knocking off Kentucky.

13. Iona Gaels (22-10 SU, 16-15 ATS, 15-16 O/U): Guard A.J. English (22.4 points, 6.2 assists) is an NBA talent who leads the NCAA’s 31st-ranked scoring offense (79.6 pts/gm). That, and the team’s ball distribution (16.8 assists/gm, 15th in NCAA), is the good. The bad is that Iona’s defense is giving up 73.7 points per game (227th in NCAA) thanks, in part, to a team that struggles on the glass (36.9 rebounds/gm, 129th in NCAA). Face No. 4 Iowa State in the first round, who was upset by UAB on Day 1 of the tournament last March.

13. UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (25-7 SU, 15-13 ATS, 16-12 O/U): A physical unit that won 16 of its final 18 matchups en route to a first-round tournament berth against the Blue Devils from Duke. This is a team that needs to take control of the paint and establish itself on the glass because of its struggles from deep (33.6 percent from 3-point range, 232nd in NCAA).

14. Fresno State Bulldogs (25-9 SU, 18-11 ATS, 17-12 O/U): Rattled off 13 victories over their final 15 games after falling 73-67 in overtime at San Diego State back on January 19. Senior Marvelle Harris is the player to watch (20.6 pts, 4.4 assists). Champions out of the not-so-daunting Mountain West Conference could be in for a rude awakening in the first round against Utah, as the game will be played in Denver at an elevation of 5,280 feet. Advantage: Utah.

14. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (27-5 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): One of the hottest teams in the nation entering March Madness, the Lumberjacks haven’t lost a game since December 29 at UAB (20 straight) thanks, in large part, to beastly forward Thomas Walkup (17.5 points, 4.5 assists, 59.8 field goal percentage). Head coach Brad Underwood has lost a grand total of just 13 games during his three seasons at SFA.

14. Green Bay Phoenix (23-12 SU, 20-10-2 ATS, 18-14 O/U): The Phoenix are making their first March Madness appearance since 1996 thanks to a 78-69 Horizon League Championship victory over Wright State. One of the country’s most efficient up-tempo teams, Green Bay ranked fifth in the nation in possessions per game this season (79.6) and sixth in scoring (84.2).

14. Buffalo Bulls (20-14 SU, 17-13-2 ATS, 18-13-1 O/U): New coach, same result. After losing former coach Bobby Hurley to Arizona State, the Bulls still found a way to win the MAC under new boss Nate Oats. Went 5-0 in neutral-site games this past season, but will have their hands full with Miami in the first round.

15. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (24-9 SU, 17-14 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): Started the season 8-5 before finding another gear to close with a 16-4 mark that included six straight wins and pointspread covers in five of their final six contests. Excellent from 3-point range (38.6 percent, 27th in NCAA), highly suspect from the free-throw line (61.7 percent, 347th in NCAA).

15. Weber State Wildcats (26-8 SU, 14-16 ATS, 13-17 O/U): Just one tournament win since 1999. The Wildcats won 10 of their final 11 games to reach March Madness, but failed to cover the spread in nine of their final 12 contests.

15. UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (22-11 SU, 6-0 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Boasts a far better defensive unit than their seeding indicates (98.2 points per 100 possessions, 60th in NCAA), excelling primarily at forcing turnovers (15.8 turnovers forced/gm, 8th in NCAA).

15. CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners (24-8 SU, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Won 10 of their final 11 contests en route to a Western Athletic Conference championship crown thanks to a defense that permitted just 63.2 points (14th in NCAA) and forced 14.9 turnovers per game (21st in NCAA) this season. First March Madness appearance despite the fact that the Roadrunners have been in Division-I for less than a decade.

16. Hampton Pirates (21-10 SU, 3-2 ATS, 5-0 O/U): Enter the tournament having won eight of their last nine matchups. While it may not matter much in a first round matchup against top-seeded Virginia, note that the Pirates are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation (41.6 rebounds/gm, 7th in NCAA).

16. Austin Peay Governors (18-17 SU, 13-15-1 ATS, 19-9-1 O/U): Set for a first-round matchup with top-seeded Kansas after concluding the season with six straight wins and four consecutive covers. Decent offense, suspect defense, not long for this tournament.

16. Southern Jaguars (22-12 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U): 183rd in the country in scoring (72.9 pts/gm), 185th in rebounding (36.0 rebounds/gm), 322nd in assists (10.9 assists/gm) and 105th in scoring defense (69.0 pts allowed/gm). In five career trips to the NCAA tournament, Southern has never made it out of the first round.

16. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (18-14 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Owned an overall record of 13-14 before a five-game winning streak to close out the season resulted in an automatic bid via the Northeast Conference championship. One of the worst defensive teams in the tournament (78.3 pts allowed/gm, 313th in NCAA), the Knights also struggle with turnovers (13.0 turnovers/gm, 208th in NCAA).

16. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (20-13 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U): “Dunk City” turned a four-game losing streak in late January into a nine-game stretch to close out the season that featured seven victories and an Atlantic Sun championship. This is a solid rebounding program (40.2 rebounds/gm, 22nd in NCAA) that is an even bigger long shot than the FGCU squad that stole America’s hearts three years ago.

16. Holy Cross Crusaders (14-19 SU, 5-0 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Bill Carmody’s program went winless in league play, won just two road games all season (at Marist, at Hartford) and enters March Madness as the only sub-.500 participant. Yet, somehow, the Crusaders won four straight on the road during the Patriot League tournament and earned an automatic bid and a March 16th play-in game against Southern.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:55 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

Oddsmakers weigh in on Round of 64's most intriguing games
By COLIN KELLY

Dick Vitale has now had time to vent his spleen over Monmouth not gaining entry into the NCAA Tournament. (For what it’s worth, I actually agree with him. I love watching Monmouth’s bench jockeys with all their scripted celebrations.) And all the usual suspects on TV and radio are now providing a crash course in bracketology.

But never mind all those folks. What do the sportsbook operators think about the bracket?

The tourney’s round of 64 is Thursday and Friday – two days that, if you can, you must find your way to Las Vegas in your lifetime – and we have a top-seeded trio weighing in on what they deem the most intriguing games.

So let’s get right to it, shall we?

JAY ROOD, vice president of race and sports, MGM-Mirage

Midwest Region

No. 6 Seton Hall vs. No. 11 Gonzaga (-2)

“It’s almost like they had the seeds backwards here,” Rood said. “The ceiling for Gonzaga is much higher. That’s one of the teams that’s a double-digit seed, though they shouldn’t be, that could go far in the tournament.”

No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Syracuse (Pick)

“I’ve got to think a lot of people will look to Syracuse as the class of this matchup,” Rood said. “But Dayton is gonna be a dangerous opponent for anybody, especially in this first-round game.”

East Region

No. 4 Kentucky (-14) vs. No. 13 Stony Brook

“Kentucky was underseeded, but John Calipari should be used to that,” Rood said. “The selection committee kind of does that to him every year. So that’s a team looking to prove a point. They might look to punish their opponent.”

No. 8 Southern California vs. Providence (-2)

“That’s a great game, a really good game to book,” Rood said. “We’ll have action going both ways, with possibly a little lean to Providence. But Southern Cal’s a team that can be dangerous, especially if the Trojans get their outside shooting going.”

South Region

No. 4 California (-6.5) vs. No. 13 Hawaii

“That’s gonna be one I’m watching from start to finish if I can,” Rood said. “Cal is rounding into shape, and I like the way Hawaii plays. It could be a really exciting game, with a lot of live look-ins – a pure basketball junky kind of game.”

No. 10 Temple vs. No. 7 Iowa (-7)

“We’re gonna be rooting for the Owls,” Rood said. “The public will line up behind Iowa, but Temple is a team that can definitely give Iowa a battle.”

West Region

No. 2 Oklahoma (-13.5) vs. No. 15 Cal State-Bakersfield

“Oklahoma will be looking to put a hurting on Cal State-Bakersfield,” Rood said. “That game is one we’re gonna make sure we have a higher number on. I think Oklahoma has all the talent to win this tournament. So there’s a little motivation for Oklahoma to make sure they come out and set the tone right away.”

JASON SIMBAL, vice president of risk management, CG Technology

South Region

No. 8 Colorado vs. No. 9 Connecticut (-3.5)

“The number was consistent between all of us who made numbers,” said Simbal, whose operation oversees sportsbooks at the M, the Palms, the Venetian and more in Las Vegas. “The public is likely to be all over UConn here, which could swing the odds toward the Huskies and leave some value on Colorado.”

No. 4 California (-6.5) vs. No. 13 Hawaii

“This is an interesting matchup because a lot of people have high opinions on Cal making a run,” Simbal said. “However, this is a tough first round matchup for them.”

West Region

No. 5 Baylor (-5) vs. No. 12 Yale

“This is another instance of a 12 seed that has a good chance of winning outright,” Simbal said. “Yale is one of our higher-ranked teams going in and is only a 5 point underdog to Baylor.”

No. 7 Oregon State vs. No. 10 Virginia Commonwealth (-3.5)

“Clearly, the committee mis-seeded according to Vegas odds, with the 10 seed VCU opening as a 3.5-point favorite over the 7 seed,” Simbal said.

East Region

No. 3 West Virginia (-5) vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin

“Similar to Cal, West Virginia is a team that a lot of folks have high expectations of to make a run, and the Mountaineers got a very challenging first-round matchup as only 5-point favorites,” Simbal said. “Based on our power rankings, 13 is much too low of a seed for Stephen F. Austin.”

No. 8 Southern California vs No. 9 Providence (-1.5)

“This is a classic 8 vs. 9 matchup of two very even teams,” Simbal said. “This game should generate good two-way action.”

Midwest Region

No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Syracuse (Pick)

“For a team that was a surprise to many to get in, Syracuse opened as a pick vs. a 25-win Dayton team,” Simbal said.

No. 6 Seton Hall (-1) vs. No. 11 Gonzaga

“This is a fun game,” Simbal said. “Seton Hall and Gonzaga have proved to be two very hot teams that are fun to watch. This game will attract good two-way action.”

SCOTT KAMINSKY

First off, a disclaimer: Kaminsky cares little for bracketology or seedings or anything that typically saturates the media following the release of the bracket. So he found four games that caught his attention, but for very different reasons.

East Region

No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (-6) vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson

Yep, it’s one of the First Four matchups – ostensibly a play-in game to the field of 64 – set for Tuesday. But that’s what Kaminsky contends is great about it.

“I like seeing teams that aren’t in the spotlight normally,” said Kaminsky, noting when he was a kid, his family had season tickets to St. Francis, Pa., basketball games, and at one, he sat behind the Fairleigh Dickinson bench and got to talk to one of the players.

“I like the Fairleigh Dickinsons and Florida Gulf Coasts of the world. These kids play all their lives, and practice as hard as the kids at North Carolina. Now, they bust their ass and have their one shining moment, their 15 minutes of fame. It’s nice to see teams like this shine, for whatever time they have in the tournament.”

No. 4 Kentucky (-14) vs. No. 13 Stony Brook

“This is Stony Brook’s first NCAA Tournament game ever, and it’s against the best team of the last three years,” Kaminsky said. “Nothing says Stony Brook can’t win the game, and everybody who’s not a Kentucky fan will be rooting for that to happen. A lot of people don’t like Kentucky’s one-and-done recruiting philosophy, and I don’t either.”

South Region

No. 2 Villanova (-16) vs. No. 15 North Carolina-Asheville

This one is strictly sentimental for Kaminsky, having nothing to do with basketball.

“A couple years ago, my wife and I decided to take a trip with my mom, who was 92 at the time, to Asheville,” said Kaminsky, whose mom is now 94. “We had a great time. It’ll be one of the last trips I had with my mom. So that game’s just gonna mean a lot to me.”

East Region

No. 3 West Virginia (-5) vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin

“I enjoy watching West Virginia because I like the full-court press,” Kaminsky said. “You don’t see that anymore – a team that does full-court press the whole game. That’s old school, something I used to do when I was a kid.”

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:55 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

NCAA Tournament: Capsule look at all 68 teams
By The Sports Xchange

EAST CAPSULES
1. North Carolina (28-6). Roy Williams led his "pretty dog-gone good basketball team" to its 15th No. 1 seed, most in ACC history. This balanced Tar Heels team is fresh off its 26th conference tournament crown and look to bring home the school's third NCAA title since 2005.
2. Xavier (27-5). With six players averaging more than nine points and their ability to play both man and the 1-3-1 zone defense, the Musketeers are in good position to build on last year's Sweet 16 appearance.
3. West Virginia (26-8). -- The Mountaineers continue to silence their critics after finishing second in the Big 12 after being picked to finish 12th in the preseason polls. This ferocious defensive team employs a full-court press that makes life hard by forcing plenty of turnovers.
4. Kentucky (26-8). -- The Wildcats may not have seven NBA-caliber players like they did last season, but the SEC Player of the Year and Naismith Trophy semifinalist Tyler Ulis (16.8 points, 7.2 assists) and Murray team up to make for a troublesome backcourt duo.
5. Indiana (25-7). The Hoosiers are not a one-trick pony any longer, but Tom Crean's team still features four players averaging 11 or more points and an offense that scores over 80 points per game.
6. Notre Dame (21-11). The Fighting Irish shot a solid 47.1 percent (869 of 1844) from the floor collectively this season, led by Zach Auguste's 54.9 percent clip, but they have been known to struggle on the defensive end.
7. Wisconsin (20-12). The Badgers are hot at the right time, winning 11 of 14 entering the tournament. That's good news for coach Greg Gard, who took the reins after Bo Ryan's sudden retirement in December. That five-year contract extension is looking pretty good right now.
8. Southern California (21-12). Under third-year coach Andy Enfield -- the architect of Florida Gulf Coast's Sweet 16 run in 2013 -- the Trojans have developed an impressive offense that scores over 80 points per game with a plethora of scoring options.
9. Providence (23-10). Dunn and Bentil are one of the best twosomes in the country when they're firing on all cylinders, but the Friars were consistently bogged down by poor shooting starts this season -- something that would send them packing early in March.
10. Pittsburgh (21-11). Michael Young's 16 points and seven rebounds per game lead a Panthers team that settled into ninth in the ACC and stalled out with four losses in its final six games.
11/11. Michigan (22-12)/Tulsa (20-11). The Wolverines struggled to the tune of a 4-12 record against teams with a top-100 RPI. As for Tulsa, it certainly doesn't hurt to have as experienced a roster as the Golden Hurricane does (nine seniors) has come tournament time.
12. Chattanooga (29-5). Coach Matt McCall and the Mocs don't like to think of themselves as the underdogs, but it's a role they'll need to embrace to get the upset against Indiana.
13. Stony Brook (26-6). -- Jameel Warney stuffed the stat sheet (19.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, 62.6 field goal percentage) and leads the way for the Seawolves, who are making their first ever NCAA tournament appearance.
14. Stephen F. Austin (27-5). Another year, another NCAA tournament appearance for Brad Underwood and the Lumberjacks. That marks three straight appearances in the big dance for Stephen F. Austin, which forces turnovers at a comparable rate to its opponent, West Virginia.
15. Weber State (26-8). The Wildcats are one of the country's best two-point shooting teams, finishing the regular season at a 55.5 percent clip, and are riding high as the Big Sky Conference champions.
16/16. Florida Gulf Coast (20-13)/Farleigh Dickenson (18-14). Dunk City makes its triumphant return to the NCAA Tournament after their magical run to the Sweet 16 in 2013, while Farleigh Dickenson (and its questionable defense) returns to the big dance for the first time since 2005.

SOUTH CAPSULES
1. Kansas (30-4). The No. 1 overall seed is fueled by upperclassmen and enters the NCAA Tournament on a 14-game winning streak.
2. Villanova (29-5). Would have been a No. 1 seed but lost to Seton Hall 69-67 in the championship game of the Big East tournament.
3. Miami (25-7). Plenty of quality wins: Utah, Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame (twice).
4. Cal (23-10). Freshman forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb are potential lottery picks, and point guard Tyrone Wallace could be a first-rounder, too.
5. Maryland (25-8). About as talented a team as you will find (four Terrapins are projected in the 2016 mock draft by DraftExpress.com), but Maryland lost four of its past eight games.
6. Arizona (25-8). The Wildcats haven't lost a game by double-digit points in the past 116 outings. Moreover, they have lost by more than four points only six times in the past three-plus seasons.
7. Iowa (21-10). Seemed to be in contention for a No. 1 seed back in February, but the Hawkeyes faded down the stretch, losing six of eight heading into NCAAs.
8. Colorado (22-11). Josh Scott and Wesley Gordon are a formidable and sizeable frontcourt, but wing George King has been a revelation, winning the Pac-12's Most Improved Player award.
9. Connecticut (24-10). Just two years removed from winning the national championship, the Huskies are led by wing Daniel Hamilton (12.4 points, 8.9 rebounds per game).
10. Temple (21-11). Guard Quenton DeCosey was a unanimous All-AAC selection for the league's regular-season champs. The Owls haven't been to the Sweet 16 since 2001.
11/11. Vanderbilt (19-13)/Wichita State (24-8). Seniors Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker are battle-tested Shockers; the Commodores beat Kentucky just two weeks ago.
12. South Dakota State (26-7). The Jackrabbits beat North Dakota State to win the Summit League tournament. Watch for freshman big man Mike Daum (15.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg).
13. Hawaii (27-5). First-year coach Eran Ganot is one of the young, up-and-comers in the business and can really make a name with a first-round upset.
14. Buffalo (20-14). Coach Nate Oats replaced Bobby Hurley after last season and led the Bulls to a repeat Mid-American Conference tournament championship.
15. UNC Asheville (22-11). The Bulldogs won the Big South tournament by beating Winthrop behind freshman Dwayne Sutton's 25 points and 18 rebounds.
16. Austin Peay (18-17). The Governors are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2008, when they lost to Texas 74-54 as a No. 15 seed.

MIDWEST CAPSULES
1. Virginia (26-7). Cavaliers are fourth in adjusted defense, per kenpom.com rankings, and a surprising ninth offensively. But they are still prone to long scoring droughts.
2. Michigan State (29-5). If Sparty runs into Virginia in the regional finals, it's not the matchup Cavs fans would want. Michigan State has sent Virginia packing in the last two NCAAs.
3. Utah (26-8). Utes appear to have a favorable draw for their first two games, plus a short trip to Denver, and that should give them a second straight Sweet 16 berth.
4. Iowa State (21-11). If Cyclones can defend adequately and keep scoring, they are capable of reaching the regional semifinals.
5. Purdue (26-8). Boilermakers must get competent guard play. If that happens, they can use their height advantage to its fullest.
6. Seton Hall (25-8). Coach Kevin Willard was on the hot seat prior to the season. After Big East tourney title, the seat has cooled considerably.
7. Dayton (25-7). Flyers limp into the tournament with a 4-4 mark in their last eight games, but their recent tourney success can't be discounted.
8. Texas Tech (19-12). Tubby Smith reaches the tourney with his fifth different school, and perhaps his most unlikely. Might be one of his best coaching jobs.
9. Butler (21-10). Bulldogs were exposed a bit in the tungsten-tough Big East, but have the toughness and skill to be a tough out for anyone.
10. Syracuse (19-13). Orange stunk down the stretch, going 1-5 in their last six games. A one-and-done would surprise absolutely no one.
11. Gonzaga (26-7). Make it 18 straight NCAA appearances for the Zags, who delivered under pressure in the West Coast Conference tournament and have the size to control Seton Hall in the lane.
12. Little Rock (29-4). Picked fourth in the Sun Belt back in October, Trojans backed up their regular-season title with the tournament championship. Great defensive team.
13. Iona (22-10). Gaels can run and gun with almost anyone, thanks to guard A.J. English. Iowa State would have picked plenty of other first-round foes before this one.
14. Fresno State (25-9). Last time the Bulldogs went dancing, the coach was Jerry Tarkanian and the star player was Chris Herren. That's 15 years ago, in case you're wondering.
15. Middle Tennessee (24-9). Forward Reggie Upshaw is the reason the Blue Raiders are here, nailing two free throws Saturday with 2.9 seconds left to topple Old Dominion for the Conference USA tournament crown.
16. Hampton (21-10). Pirates are 0-7 all-time against Virginia, including a 69-40 beat-down last season. It might be a similar story on Thursday.

WEST CAPSULES
1. Oregon (28-6). The Ducks have won eight in a row since dropping back-to-back games to Cal and Stanford. They posted a resounding 88-57 victory over Utah in the championship game of the Pac-12 tournament.
2. Oklahoma (25-7). Two-time Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield led the Sooners to a third-place finish in one of the nation's toughest conferences.
3. Texas A&M (26-8). The Aggies, led by senior guard Jalen Jones, won their first regular-season conference title since 1986.
4. Duke (23-10). The Blue Devils, who feature the dynamic duo of Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram, are making their 21st consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance under legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski.
5. Baylor (22-11). The Bears lost four of their past six games, but they put up a fight in a 70-66 loss to Kansas in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament.
6. Texas (20-12). The Longhorns lost five of their last nine during a brutal stretch run that included two games against No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 22 Baylor as well as matchups with No. 1 Kansas, No. 9 West Virginia and No. 21 Iowa State.
7. Oregon State (19-12). The Beavers, under second-year coach Wayne Tinkle, reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1990.
8. St. Joseph's (27-7). The Hawks won the Atlantic 10 Conference tourney to reach the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time in 21 seasons under coach Phil Martelli.
9. Cincinnati (22-10). The Bearcats posted their sixth consecutive 20-win season and reached the NCAA Tournament for the sixth year in a row.
10. VCU (24-10). The Rams, who reached the Final Four in 2011, are in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth year in a row.
11. Northern Iowa (22-12). The Panthers, who won 12 of their past 13 games, including dramatic victories over Wichita State and Evansville in the Missouri Valley tournament, feature four players with double-figure scoring averages.
12. Yale (22-6). The Ivy League champion Bulldogs are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1962.
13. UNC Wilmington (25-7). The Colonial Athletic Association champions are led by junior guard Chris Flemmings, who averages 16.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per contest.
14. Green Bay (23-12). The Phoenix won the Horizon League tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 20 years.
15. CSU Bakersfield (24-8). The Roadrunners, making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since moving to Division I in 2007, beat New Mexico State at the buzzer to win their first Western Athletic Conference tournament title.
16/16. Holy Cross (14-19)/Southern (22-12). Holy Cross is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 after winning the Patriot League Tournament as a No. 9 seed. Southern, which finished fourth in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, earned its bid by beating Jackson State 54-53 to win the SWAC tournament.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:57 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

Best & Worst Big Dance Draws
By Joe Nelson

Dissecting the bracket and the decisions of the selection committee is certainly a fun topic Monday morning. Here is a quick look at some of the favorable and unfavorable draws in the bracket. Neither is indicative of ultimate success in the tournament but some teams were dealt better hands than others.

Worst Draws

West Virginia (#3 East): The Mountaineers made it to the Big XII championship game, narrowly losing against #1 overall Kansas on Saturday. Most power ratings project West Virginia as a clear top 10 team but they have drawn a fairly difficult path as a #3 seed, while staring at the Oklahoma team they finished ahead of and just beat as a #2 seed. Stephen F. Austin hasn’t lost a game since the calendar turned to 2016 taking a 20 game winning streak into the tournament. The Lumberjacks beat VCU in the 2015 tournament and last season played a very close game with Utah in a 5/12 matchup. West Virginia’s success is built on creating turnovers yet they will have to face the only team in the nation with a higher defensive turnover rate in this matchup as these teams have similar strengths, except in 3-point shooting and free throw shooting where the Mountaineers are the much weaker team. Should West Virginia survive they could potentially face Notre Dame or Michigan, two powerhouse fan bases that have will have strong support in the Brooklyn venue.

Baylor (#5 West): The Bears lost as a #3 seed last season against Georgia State and Baylor will again be on upset alert this season in the opening round. In 2013 and 2014 Ivy League champion Harvard won NCAA tournament games and last season the Crimson just missed an upset over North Carolina in a two-point defeat as the league deserves some respect. This game will also take place in Providence giving the Bulldogs a huge location edge with the venue just an hour and a half drive from New Haven and with plenty of alumni in the region ready to snap up tickets for Yale’s first Big Dance appearance since 1962. As the spread suggests a Yale win won’t be much of an upset but if the Bears survive they will only have to go through the defending national champions with Duke sitting as the opposing #4 seed should the Blue Devils advance.

Indiana (#5 East): The Hoosiers don’t have a great argument to have been seeded much higher despite being the Big Ten champions in the regular season. The SEC regular season and tournament champion Kentucky certainly does have a valid gripe however and that potential matchup will be the highest profile game of the Round of 32. If Indiana keeps up its late season shooting they can beat anyone but the Kentucky backcourt seems likely to be a difficult matchup for the Hoosiers and the Des Moines crowd will likely have strong Kentucky support. The Hoosiers had better not get caught looking ahead to that game however as Chattanooga is a dangerous team that lost just five games all season and picked up wins over Georgia, Illinois, and Dayton. The Mocs have been very good at creating turnovers which could capitalize on the chief weakness of the Hoosiers and the 3-point defense for Chattanooga has also been pretty sound. Beat Chattanooga and Kentucky and Indiana’s reward is facing North Carolina in most scenarios as it won’t be easy for Tom Crean to get past the Sweet 16 for the first time since he took over in Bloomington.

Arizona (#6 South): The Wildcats have been unable to get over the hump in the Elite Eight the past two years and they will have a difficult path ahead if Sean Miller is to make his first Final Four in 2016. Arizona may have felt slighted to be a #2 seed last season but they at least played on the west coast. This season the Wildcats have been shipped across the country to Providence. To make matters worse they play on Thursday night but they won’t know the opponent until Tuesday night facing the winner of gem of a First Four matchup between Wichita State and Vanderbilt. Both of those squads wound up on the bubble but both teams have very high ceilings and will be considered viable sleepers to make it out of the first weekend. In the short history of the First Four, all five seasons one of the winning teams has advanced to at least the Round of 32, with three teams making the Sweet 16 and VCU making the Final Four in the initial year of the First Four in 2011.

Cal-State Bakersfield (#15 West): The hodgepodge WAC doesn’t get much respect as a whole as there are some pretty bad teams in the group but the top of the conference produced some respectable results around the country. Bakersfield is 24-8 to earn this spot after knocking off regular season champion New Mexico State last weekend. While the profile lacks any standout non-conference wins most power rankings would place the Roadrunners above several teams that received better placement in the bracket such as Chattanooga, Green Bay, Stony Brook, or Buffalo. In addition to the #15 seed and the difficult matchup with a Sooners team that was ranked #1 much of the year, the Roadrunners will feel like they are playing a road game drawing Oklahoma in Oklahoma City. It won’t be a shock in Bakersfield gives the Sooners a scare but the Roadrunners would have been a more viable upset threat with a seeding more consistent with their strong statistics.

Best Draws

Oregon (#1 West): The Ducks weren’t on the radar for most as a potential #1 seed but the Pac-12 was given great respect by the committee and the emphatic title game win pushed the Ducks to the top line after claiming both the regular season and conference tournament titles. Oregon gets to play the winner of the Holy Cross and Southern Matchup as they will have one of the most favorable opening round draws and getting to play the first weekend in Spokane is a big plus with no other west coast schools in that pod. Duke and Baylor don’t look overly formidable as the #4 and #5 teams in the group particularly on defense given Oregon’s fantastic offensive potential. Upsets are very possible in that Providence grouping as well with Duke and Baylor both set to face challenging opening games. If Oregon lives up to its seeding it would have an Anaheim regional final matchup with likely Oklahoma or Texas A&M two teams with high ceilings but plenty of inconsistency this season while avoiding some of the more proven candidates in those #2 and #3 slots.

Villanova (#2 South): The Wildcats have a big monkey on their back for tournament failures in recent years and not having the pressure of being a #1 seed might be a benefit. #1 overall Kansas is on the opposite side of the region but getting past the opening weekend has to be the priority for Villanova. UNC-Asheville rates as one of the weaker teams in the field losing six games in the Big South but a non-conference win over Georgetown should be enough to capture Villanova’s attention. The 7/10 draw of Iowa and Temple also looks promising as Temple rates as by far the weakest #10 seed and is a team that Villanova beat by 16 in February. While Iowa has a strong season profile this is a Hawkeyes team that has lost six of the last eight games to wipe away the great work the team did in January. Iowa lost to Penn State, Ohio State, and Illinois down the stretch while also losing two home games and snapping out of that funk looks challenging against a team like Villanova should the Hawkeyes even get that chance. Miami is a strong team as the #3 seed but perhaps less threatening than some of the other potential teams that could have been in that spot in the South like West Virginia, Kentucky, or Texas A&M.

Michigan State (#2 Midwest): Most instantly placed Michigan State as a team with a gripe about not being a #1 seed as the Spartans are the Vegas favorites to cut down the nets and it isn’t a hard case to make putting the Spartans on the #1 line. That said, a close look reveals some real benefits to this path if the Spartans can use that slight as motivation to get back to the Final Four. The #1 seed in the Midwest is Virginia, a team the Spartans have beat the past two seasons in the NCAA Tournament and that potential game would be in Chicago with a clear edge for Michigan State. Middle Tennessee State is a better team than any of the #1 seeds will face in the opening round but the Spartans should be comfortable with potential matchups with Syracuse or Dayton in the Round of 32. Utah also looks like the weakest of the #3 seeds and that potential Sweet 16 matchup would also be in Chicago for a huge location edge for the Spartans. Iowa State also looks like one of the weaker #4 seeds and they also line up in the Midwest should Virginia falter early.

Texas (#6 West): The Longhorns lost twice as many games as their NCAA Tournament seed this season but big wins pushed Texas into a favorable position. Northern Iowa had some big wins this season and as the spread suggests it won’t be an easy game but the Oklahoma City venue should be favorable and Texas is very comfortable playing at a slower pace. The Longhorns can’t help but looking ahead to a potential matchup with Texas A&M in the round of 32, a rival and team they had a chance to play early in the season and would have no shortage of motivation and support for. It should be a Big XII crowd at the Chesapeake Arena with Oklahoma also slated to play there which could help the cause. If the Longhorns advance to the Sweet 16 they would likely face a Sooners team they beat by 13 just a few weeks ago. Ultimately the Longhorns have to feel pretty good about how things worked out especially with two other #6 seeds having the challenge of facing a First Four winner while the other #6 Seton Hall has been sent across the country in a pod with three western teams.

Iona (#13 Midwest): Metro Atlantic fans can certainly cry foul for Monmouth’s exclusion but the conference was handed a great opportunity to actually pick up a win in the NCAA Tournament with the draw for Iona. Getting a #13 seed is probably generous for a squad that lost 10 games and whose only top 100 wins came against Monmouth. Of the #4 seeds Iona would want to face Iowa State would have to be high on the list as the Cyclones don’t have the devastating size up front that some of the other #3, #4, or #5 seeds have. Iona is led by an up-tempo offense and that is Iowa State’s preferred pace as well with the Cyclones shaky on defense at times as this game could be a bit of a track meet. Playing in the mountain air in Denver also could give the Gaels a boost as well as the conditioning for Iona should be excellent given the pace of play they employ.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:57 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

NCAA Location Advantages
By Joe Nelson

While most of the NCAA tournament games will generally be played in unfamiliar venues and spacious arenas with mixed fan bases, it is worth taking a look at the travel required and the groupings of teams in each pod. Here is a brief look at some of the advantages and disadvantages presented by the selection committee this season with regards to location in the opening games.

Providence, Rhode Island:

The team most thrilled to be in Providence has to be Yale, hailing from New Haven, Connecticut just about 100 miles southwest of Rhode Island’s capital city. With Yale ending a long NCAA Tournament drought this season, the afternoon session tickets on Thursday featuring the NC-Wilmington/Duke matchup and the Yale/Providence matchup are hot tickets. Duke should get solid support in this grouping with a fan base that is well populated in the major northeast cities nearby, but like ACC counterpart Miami, the team has to be a bit disappointed to not be in Raleigh where #1 seeds North Carolina and Virginia will be playing Thursday. Buffalo fans have a manageable drive to Providence to support the #14 seeded MAC Tournament champions, but the evening sessions won’t likely have one overwhelming fan base. Arizona seems the most out of place in this group as the #6 seed facing long travel for a Thursday game in which they won’t know the opponent until Tuesday night, facing off with the winner of the highly anticipated Vanderbilt/Wichita State matchup in the First Four.

Raleigh, North Carolina:

ACC squads North Carolina and Virginia get a favorable placement in Raleigh with a very short trip for the Tar Heels in what should feel like a home game and the venue is less than 250 miles from the Virginia campus as well. While both of those #1 seeds are heavy favorites in the opening games, it is worth remembering that both teams really struggled in the first round games last season, barely escaping with victories playing in favorable venues in Charlotte and Jacksonville. Assuming the top seeds move on, the location edge may be more important on Saturday as the 8/9 matchup teams are all making long trips with North Carolina set to face the winner between Providence and USC and Virginia slated to face the winner of the Butler/Texas Tech game.

Des Moines, Iowa:

Three schools from Iowa are in the NCAA Tournament, but none finished with a high enough seed to earn a favorable spot in Des Moines. #1 overall seed Kansas had three attractive nearby options for the opening weekend games and Des Moines is the closest, just a few dozen miles closer to campus compared to St. Louis or Oklahoma City. Blue should dominate the seats on Saturday with Kentucky also in this grouping and even though it is close to a 10-hour drive from Lexington the Wildcats are always well supported. Indiana fans, like Kentucky fans, were certainly hoping to get a St. Louis draw as both teams have to feel a little snubbed by the committee both in seeding and location as well as staring at each other in a potential headlining matchup Saturday just to reach the Sweet 16. Connecticut vs. Colorado figures to be a great opening round 8/9 matchup and while Des Moines is a reasonable trip from Boulder, none of the other schools in this grouping figure to have much impact in making a dent on the Kansas crowd.

Denver, Colorado:

With no double-digit spreads in the four Thursday games in Denver, this grouping might be one to watch for potential upsets. None of the eight schools in this group are set particularly close to Denver, but flights are rather easy from Salt Lake City to the Mile High City in March as Utah is probably the biggest beneficiary to the Pepsi Center draw. Up tempo squads Iona and Iowa State face off in the early game Thursday and it will be interesting to if the altitude has an impact. Also of note with regards to the altitude will be how teams that are fairly reliant on lumbering big men will handle the thin air with Purdue and Gonzaga most noteworthy to watch. Utah is also led by star center Jakob Poeltl, but the elevation jump from Salt Lake City to Denver isn’t that dramatic compared with say West Lafayette to Denver. Iona and Seton Hall are the only eastern schools that were shipped out to Denver with Seton Hall as a #6 seed facing #11 seed Gonzaga perhaps drawing one of the bigger location disadvantages in the tournament relative to the seeding as the slight favorite status of the Bulldogs displays.

Brooklyn, New York:

There is a lot of college basketball played in the greater New York City area, but it has been a while since a prominent team emerged and this Brooklyn venue won’t provide any sort of dramatic home court edge to the schools in play. #2 seed Villanova can‘t complain about this landing spot, but they did not wind up in the East region which would have meant games in Philadelphia next week if the Wildcats can advance. West Virginia fans also have a reasonable trip as do Temple fans for an intriguing set of Friday games. Ultimately the big city setting may favor the powerful fan bases from the Midwest with Notre Dame and Iowa support likely to be strong and should Michigan survive Wednesday’s First Four matchup the Wolverines would face the Irish in a rivalry better known on the gridiron in what would be a highly-anticipated game. West Virginia would draw the winner of that game if they get by a dangerous #14 seed in Stephen F. Austin.

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma:

While the Sooners had a bit of late season slide, they were still handed a favorable NCAA Tournament draw, still getting a #2 seed ahead of #3 seed West Virginia who finished ahead of the Sooners in the standings and beat Oklahoma in the Big XII semifinals. Oklahoma is opposite an Oregon squad most consider to be the least proven of the #1 seeds in the West region and the opening weekend games are in Oklahoma City, just a half hour drive from Norman as crimson and cream figure to dominate Chesapeake Energy Arena. That could be overwhelming for Cal State Bakersfield in the program’s first NCAA Tournament appearance as well as potential second round foes VCU and Oregon State who are playing far from home. In the other pod, Texas and Texas A&M figure to receive strong support with a reasonable drive north for both fan bases in what could be a great second round storyline in a rematch from earlier this season between former conference foes.

St. Louis, Missouri:

Michigan State wasn’t given a #1 seed and the St. Louis venue is still a nearly eight-hour drive from East Lansing. That was the best option the Spartans had with only Des Moines as a venue at a similar distance. If Michigan State survives the opening weekend, they will be rewarded with games in Chicago which could really pay off in potential matchups with Utah or Virginia. While Michigan State should be well supported in St. Louis, the Gateway City will likely also receive a great deal of travelers taking I-70 from Dayton and Cincinnati. It is also a reasonable trip south from Madison as #7 seeds Wisconsin and Dayton received favorable placement for coin-flip opening round 7/10 matchups against Pittsburgh and Syracuse teams with more distance to cover. Weber State and Syracuse have the most substantial travel as most of the schools in this group should get fans at the Scotttade Center with #2 seeds Michigan State and Xavier likely bringing the most enthusiasm.

Spokane, Washington:

Nothing is terribly close by out west, but Oregon was dealt a favorable venue in Spokane, a seven-hour drive from Eugene and even closer trip from Portland where plenty of alumni reside. Oregon isn’t expected to have a tough time in the opening round vs. a Wednesday First Four winner and the potential second round matchup would feature an eastern squad Cincinnati or St. Joseph’s to give the Ducks a big advantage. Hawaii and California are technically western squads and Spokane certainly is the closest opening round venue available, but that is far from a short trip for those schools and #4 seeded Bears would travel much further east to Louisville should they advance. South Dakota State and Maryland also will have long journeys to get fans to Veterans Arena as this looks like a venue that will be overtaken by Ducks fans.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:57 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

March Madness Expert Bracket Advice: Highest Seeds With Toughest Path To Final
by Alan Matthews

You can have the NFL playoffs, NBA Finals or World Series. In my opinion, the greatest couple of weeks in American sports, from a fan and betting perspective, have arrived: March Madness. The NCAA Tournament takes the most action of any event annually in the U.S., even more than the Super Bowl. And I highly recommend to get to Vegas if you can for a March Madness day. Crazy.

The one negative of the NCAA Tournament: no doubt by now you have been inundated on Facebook or your social media network of choice by all the bracket picks of your amateur bracketologist friends. And if some woman wins my main bracket competition again this year simply by picking her favorite colors or the meaner mascot, then I'm going to lose my mind.

Sportsbooks as usual have some great specials for the Big Dance. A No. 16 seed is 0-124 all-time against No. 1s. But this season has seen more parity than any in years. That a No. 16 finally wins a game is +1000 with "no" at -2000. Bit surprised there is even a no option. Your top seeds this year are No. 1 overall seed Kansas in the South, Oregon in the West, North Carolina in the East and Virginia in the Midwest. I disagree with the Ducks and Cavaliers -- Villanova and Michigan State are more deserving -- but they aren't blatantly wrong. What was ridiculous was mediocre teams like Syracuse and especially Tulsa making the Big Dance over more deserving mid-majors like Monmouth and Saint Mary's.

The "over/under" for the number of No. 1 seeds making the Final Four in Houston is 1.5, with the under a -150 favorite. Three top seeds -- eventual national champion Duke, unbeaten Kentucky and Wisconsin -- made it last year. I think all three of those teams are better than the best clubs in this year's Big Dance.

So which high seeds have the toughest road to the Final Four? I believe the West Region is clearly the weakest. Oklahoma is the No. 2 behind Oregon with Texas A&M at No. 3 and Duke a No. 4. The Ducks are a Final Four-caliber team at home but have bad losses to the likes of UNLV, Boise State and Stanford. OU has superstar Buddy Hield, but if you can stop him you stop the Sooners, who are actually the +230 region favorites (Oregon at +350). I also think the Big 12 was a bit overrated. The SEC is terrible, so forget about A&M. The Aggies also have some really bad losses. Duke has two stellar players in Grayson Allen and freshman Brandon Ingram but is only about six deep due to injuries. I could see a team like No. 6 Texas stealing that region.

Most experts say the East Region is the toughest one. Maybe. North Carolina is the +140 favorite in the East, and the Heels probably have the most talent in the country, but they tend to lose focus at times (losses vs. unranked Northern Iowa, Texas and Notre Dame, although all three are in the Big Dance). The Heels will face either No. 8 USC or No. 9 Providence in the Round of 32. The Friars have two great players in Big East Player of the Year Kris Dunn and sophomore Ben Bentil, the conference's leading scorer. But it's the Sweet 16 where everyone is looking ahead to: UNC vs. probably No. 5 Indiana or No. 4 Kentucky. It's a shame those two have to play in the Round of 32. I'm not sold on IU as it struggles away from home. UK has the nation's best backcourt in freshman Jamal Murray and sophomore Tyler Ulis. And obviously that roster is full of five-star recruits. I do believe the winner of that UNC-UK game cruises to the Final Four as I'm not overly impressed with the bottom half of the draw led by No. 2 Xavier.

I might argue the South Region is tougher. Kansas is +150 there. KU won't have trouble with Austin Peay in Round 1, but No. 9 UConn, the AAC Tournament champion, could be waiting in the Round of 32. The Huskies are getting hot at the right time, just like the 2014 national championship team did as a No. 7 seed. Either No. 4 Cal or No. 5 Maryland likely would await in the Sweet 16. Both the Bears and Terps have multiple future NBA lottery picks on their rosters. The bottom half of the draw has No. 2 Villanova, as deep as anyone, No. 3 Miami (wins over Utah, Butler, Duke, Notre Dame, Virginia and Louisville, among others) and No. 6 Arizona, which can beat anyone. Maybe No. 7 Iowa will start playing like a Top-5 ranked team that it was for some of this season.

In the Midwest, Virginia appears to have a clear path to the regional final. Both No. 4 Purdue and No. 5 Iowa State in the top half of the bracket are very inconsistent. No. 2 Michigan State has it much harder in the bottom half, with teams like Utah (led by NBA lottery pick center Jakob Poeltl) and red-hot Seton Hall, the Big East Tournament champion. And that's if the Pirates even get past Gonzaga in the first round.

My Final Four: Villanova, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State. Three No. 2s and a No. 1.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:58 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

March Madness' 30-second shot clock could give edge to big betting chalk
By JASON LOGAN

The 2016 NCAA tournament marks the first time the “Big Dance” will be set to a 30-second tempo. College hoops adapted the shorter shot clock heading into this season, trimming five ticks from the previous 35-second countdown.

The difference in offensive tempo, which is the main reason why the NCAA made the adjustment, is obvious. Scoring is up across the country, which means so are the betting totals, with an average Over/Under number of 142.4 for the Round of 64 games. That’s nearly nine points higher than the average betting total for the 2015 tournament Round of 64, which was 133.6 points, and the highest average total for the Round of 64 in the past 19 years (as far back as our NCAAB database goes).

Those statistics are grinding the gears of NCAAB totals bettors, but those who bet pointspreads should be just as intrigued with the impact the 30-second shot clock has on the opening games of the 2016 NCAA tournament.

The basic math behind the new shot clock rule is that teams are forced to shoot the ball faster, therefore creating more possessions per game. More possessions equal more shots, and more shots should equal more points. Now, here’s where our theory comes into play…

With more possessions for each side, that means that the better team – the betting favorite - will have more cracks at the basketball, and consequently more opportunities to be, well… better. On the flipside, the lesser team – or the underdog – has more chances to succumb to the stronger opponent, or be bad. In the end, theoretically, the 30-second shot clock should help the favorite cover the spread more than the old 35-second clock did.

In the past, weaker programs could limit the amount of possessions a stronger foe got simply by milking the shot clock and slowing down the tempo. But, now under the 30-second rule, those extra five seconds to hold a beast at bay are gone and adding up quickly over the course of a game.

As a co-worker of mine pointed out this morning, underdogs have a much better chance of upsetting a favorite in a best-of-three playoff series but the odds quickly side with the better of the two teams the more games are played – such as a best-of-seven series. Think of every possession as a single game in a series played over 40 minutes of basketball.

This theory doesn’t quiet lend itself to just pointspread favorites in general, it really needs a solid divide in talent between two teams to take hold over the course of a contest. And rarely do you see a bigger gap in competition than during the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament.

No. 1 versus No. 16 matchups breed massive spreads when the NCAA’s elite faceoff against weaker, small-conference schools. We also see sizable lines in No. 2 versus No. 15 and No. 3 versus No. 14 games.

This year, the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks are 26-point favorites against No. 16 Austin Peay, the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers are 23.5-point chalk taking on No. 16 Hampton, and the No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels are set at -22 versus No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast. The remaining No. 1 program, Oregon, will play the winner of the Holy Cross/Southern play-in game and will likely draw another generous spread.

Given our theory, the No. 1 teams – which have gone 20-15-1 ATS in the Round of 64 since 2006, and just 4-7-1 ATS the past three NCAA tournaments – possess an extra edge to cover those lofty spreads thanks to the shorter shot clock.

Now, we’re not just throwing this theory out there without providing at least some loose evidence to back it up. Under the 30-second shot clock in 2015-16, pointspread favorites of -12 or higher have gone 398-381-18 ATS – covering at a 51 percent clip. That’s an uptick from 49.5 percent (1,914-1,949-85 ATS) over the previous five college hoops campaigns, but nothing that’s going to send a cold shiver down the spines of Bookmakers.

As mentioned above, our theory on the impact of the 30-second shot clock on NCAAB pointspreads pertains to massive mismatches and big favorites, so we need to get chalky. And doing so, we see that college basketball favorites of 20 or more points are 91-73-3 ATS (55.5%) in 2015-16. Sorting those big faves even further we find teams giving between 25.5 and 29.5 points went 19-10 (65.5%) and favorites of 30 or more points are 12-8 ATS (60%).

Comparing those 30-second shot clock-influenced results to past five 35-second seasons, we see favorites of 20 or more points were 372-345-12 ATS (52%), faves between 25.5 and 29.5 points finished 70-72-2 ATS (49%), and teams giving 30-plus points were 41-33 ATS (55%) from 2010-11 to 2014-15 – thanks in large part to 30-plus faves finishing 10-1 ATS in 2013-14.

So, if you’re scared off by some of the larger Round of 64 spreads on the board, as it pertains to those No. 1 teams - don’t sweat it. As the Rolling Stones once sang, time, time, time is on your side. Yes it is.

**TheGame** · 03-17-2016, 07:58 AM

Re: CBB Betting Info. 3/17

March Madness Sleepers
By John Fisher

Listed below are teams listed at No. 5 or higher that I believe can make an impact in this year's NCAA Tournament.

South Regional

8) Uconn...This team reminds of the 2011 UConn team that went through its conference tournament in five days to clinch a berth to the tournament. They then took that momentum and the incredible play of point guard Kemba Walker to take down the nets. This year Uconn had to win or go deep in conference tournament and did so with a spectacular 4OT performance and a 3/4 court shot at the buzzer to force the 4th OT. Center Amidah Brimah is a 7 footer who is finally healthy and looking like a tough obstacle to score on with his shot blocking. Then you have sophomore sensation forward Daniel Hamilton that is a tough cover. Top-seed Kansas better not look pass these Uconn Huskies or it will be out in the second round.

5) Maryland...I had this squad as a Final Four 4 contender as did other head coaches in the beginning of the year. However, PG Melo Trimble injured his hamstring halfway through the season and has not been the same. Add to that his confidence has suffered as well. If he some how comes out of his shell (no pun intended), then this team can easily advance to the Elite 8 or Final 4. Forward Jake Layman is the key to this team. He creates matchup problems and helps free up forward Robert Carter and center Diamond Stone in the paint to get easy baskets.

11) Wichita State...Head coach Gregg Marshall is one of the best in the nation that can give opponents fits with his defensive schemes. Plus, the backcourt of Fred VanFleet and Ron Baker will make this team a tough out. Wichita State is ranked first in the nation in defensive efficiency and holds opponents below 59 pts a game. The Shockers held Vanderbilt to 50 points in the "First Four" game on Tuesday and both Arizona and Miami, Fl. better not overlook this team in the South.

West Regional

8) Saint Joseph's...The public finally got to see one of the best one two combos in G/Fs DeAndre' Bembry and Isaiah Miles for the Hawks. They are so difficult to guard because they can shoot, dribble, and drive to the basket. The tandem just made a very good VCU team look average in the Atlantic 10 Championship game. Bettors backing the No. 1 Ducks in this region should be weary of St. Joe's.

13) VCU....Speaking of teams that lost to the above Saint Joseph Hawks, these Rams won't be an easy out by any means. They play a deep bench and have a great inside outside combo in C Mo Alie-Cox and a guard tandem in Melvin Johnson and Jaquan Lewis. I expect the Rams to beat Oregon State in the first round and eventually meet No. 2 Oklahoma in the second round. This will be in a fight to the finish here and I won't be surprised if we see our first major upset with a #13 seed beating a #2 Seed.

East Regional

11) Michigan....There always seems to be a team each year that people feel that doesn't deserve to be in the dance. Then they come out and win a couple of games to say we belong. Maybe it will be Michigan this year. A lot say Michigan was a surprise. Tulsa to me was a big mistake. Michigan has a style that can be an issue for a lot of teams that might have a difficult time going small. West Virginia, a No. 3 seed in the East, uses a press defense to throttle opponents into turnovers. This won't happen against this Michigan Wolverines team that has four ball handlers and ranks in the Top 10 in turnover efficiency on offense. Beware #3 West Virginia.

7) Wisconsin...The Badgers won't repeat their great run last year to the Championship but they will be a tough out. Their defense and style are perfect for tournament play. Much like a poor mans Virginia, if the opponent doesn't pay attention to details the Badgers can sneak up on you. The Badgers would meet No. 2 seed Xavier in the next round and the Musketeers better play their 'A' game to,escape an upset bid from these Badgers.

Midwest Regional

5) Purdue...The imposing front court lineup of AJ Hammons, Isaac Haas, and Caleb Swanigan can carry them deep into the tournament . If their guards of Vince Edwards, Raphael Davis, and PJ Thompson can contribute there is no reason why this team can't get pass No. 4 Iowa State (over seeded) and No. 1 Virginia.

6) Seton Hall...Led by the electric sophomore guard tandem of Khadeen Carrington and Isaiah Whitehead this team just defeated in my opinion two top 5 caliber teams in Villanova and Xavier to win the Big East tournament. What was impressive to me is that both coaches of Villanova (Jay Wright) and Xavier (Chris Mack) said that Seton Hall's defense was the best they have seen all year. If I'm No. 3 Utah, I'd be shaking In my boots right now.

10) Syracuse...Similar to Michigan, this team has been told they shouldn't be in the dance. With a 1-5 record to end the season you can't say that coach Jim Boeheim didn't have influence on the NCAA tournament committee . This will give them some added incentive as they play against Dayton and possibly Michigan State. F Tyler Roberson and G Michael Gbinije can carry this team. If the Spartans can't find their outside shot it could be a major upset for the Orange over No. 2 Michigan State.

Quick Thoughts:

I believe the South is the toughest regional by far.

I believe the committee was off this year on seeding and certain teams being left out. I'm not sure if they even watched more than a couple of games. Sometimes looking at analytics amd numbers doesn't tell a story. They seem to have missed on a lot of fronts.

Duke should be a No. 6 Seed

Kentucky should be a No. 3 Seed

Texas A&M should be a No. 4 Seed

Wichita State should be a No. 7 Seed

Saint Joseph's should be a No. 6 Seed

Oregon State should be No. 10 Seed and VCU a No. 7 Seed

Indiana and Purdue should be No. 4 Seeds

Iowa State should be a No. 6 Seed

Seton Hall should be a No. 4/5 Seed

Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Tulsa, Oregon State should be home and replaced by Monmouth, Saint Mary's, Valparaiso and San Diego State

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CBB Betting Info. 3/17

CBB Betting Info. 3/17

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