NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

[TheGame]

Who’s In and Who’s Out
By Bill Milton 02/25/2014
Playbook.com

Here is a conference by conference look at my projected NCAA Tournament field:

Pac 12 - Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Arizona State are IN the tournament, with Utah and Oregon on my bubble. Many others have Oregon and Colorado flipped with the Buffs on the bubble, but I like that team a good deal whereas the Ducks are SO up and down it is hard to trust them. With that said, if UO goes on a tear in the conference tourney they could earn their way into the dance, likely knocking out one of their conference brethren, as do not see the Pac 12 getting seven bids.

Big 10 - Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State are on, with Minnesota and Nebraska on the bubble. Minnesota can move into my "Probably In" column with a victory against the Hawkeyes tonite.

Big 12 - Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas State are on in, with Oklahoma State on my Probably In list. West Virginia playing better of late but probably too little too late. Big question mark team for me is Baylor, as they have enough talent to make the Dance, but have not been playing up to that level.

ACC - Virginia, Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Pitt are in, with Clemson Probably In, with NCSU and Maryland on the bubble. Terps likely would have moved to Probably In class has they beaten Cuse last night.

AAC - Cincinnati, Louisville, SMU, Memphis, U Conn are in....and that is it, as no teams from the bottom of the AAC have anything close to the resume needed. SMU gets lots of deserved attention, but a note about Memphis: For years the knock was that first Calipari and then Pastner's team did not play quality competition. That has changed, and this team is still good.

A10 - The Atlantic 10 as a basketball hotbed? Yep. I have Saint Louis, VCU, St Joes, Richmond and U Mass as in the tournament, with George Washington in the Probably In category and Dayton on my bubble. Many talk of this league being underrated - but hard to make that argument when only once conference in the nation will have more bids.

Big East - How the mighty have fallen. It was only a few years back that the Big East got NINE teams to the Dance... this year I call for just a third of that as I have Creighton, Villanova and Xavier into the tournament with St Johns, Georgetown, Marquette, and Providence all on the outside looking in. Also, Butler stands at 12-15 on the year. That record shows just how good of a coach Brad Stephens is, and also what it is like to move up to a bigger conference most of the time. Folks trying to get Wichita State a #1 seed should consider two time national finalist Butler being 12-15 in their first year in the big leagues.

SEC - I have the SEC with two assured spots going to Florida and Kentucky, with two VERY tenuous bids at the moment going to Arkansas and Missouri. I have Georgia and Tennessee on the bubble. If Georgia wins tonite against Missouri I will be switching those two teams. [By the way, pretty strong chatter coming my way that former Wyoming Head Coach and current UNLV assistant Heath Schroyer will be the new coach at Tennessee if Cuonzo Martin is relieved of his duties - something that is looking more and more likely.]

Mountain West - San Diego State and New Mexico are sure things, and right now I have Boise State in the field as well - with the Broncos getting my final at large bid to the dance. UNLV is the tournament host, and as such if Dave Rice can get that talented team to actually play to its talent level they can still make the NCAA's.

West Coast Conference - Gonzaga is as always a lock for the tournament, and with BYU getting healthier they deserve to be in the Big Dance as well. I have St. Marys and USF on the bubble. Very unlikely the WCC gets four teams, but Dons do deserve at least bubble mention.

Missouri Valley Conference - Arch Madness not going to be as compelling this season as it has in the past, as Wichita State dominates what is a down year for the Valley. The only other MVC team under consideration for the Dance is Indiana State, and do not see them getting at At Large at all.

Conference USA - This is a one bid league, especially if Southern Miss wins the league. However, if the Eagles do not win the tournament, they have a pretty strong RPI and SOS case to make the Dance. I still have them out, but bubble teams around the nation will be rooting for USM to win the C-USA crown.

All of the rest of the field will come from the automatic qualifiers of the regular season (Ivy, Harvard your VERY likely winner) or conference tournament. One team to mention comes from the Big Sky, and that is Sacramento State. The Hornets are playing the best ball in the Big Sky, and while the event will almost assuredly be on the home floor of Weber State, do not be stunned if Sacto State sneaks away with that bid. The MAC, Sun Belt, Southern, and Colonial should also be solid conference tournaments.

Finally, since it seems mandatory for every one of these previews to list the last four teams and the first four out, I will do the same:

First Four Out: Providence, Oregon, Georgia, St Marys

Last Four In: BYU, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Boise State

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

StatFox Super Situations

MIAMI at VIRGINIA
Play On - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (MIAMI) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

STANFORD at ARIZONA ST
Play Against - Any team (STANFORD) after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival against opponent off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival 39-36 over the last 5 seasons. ( 52.0% | 33.8 units ) 7-11 this year. ( 38.9% | 0.5 units )

MIAMI at VIRGINIA
Play On - Road underdogs of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (MIAMI) off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | -2.3 units )

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

7:00 PM
RHODE ISLAND vs. MASSACHUSETTS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Rhode Island's last 7 games when playing on the road against Massachusetts
Rhode Island is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Massachusetts
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Massachusetts's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Massachusetts's last 9 games at home

7:00 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Central Michigan's last 5 games on the road
Central Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Eastern Michigan is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Central Michigan

7:00 PM
CONNECTICUT vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
Connecticut is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Connecticut is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against South Florida
South Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Connecticut
South Florida is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home

7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. VIRGINIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Virginia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

7:00 PM
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON vs. DREXEL
College of Charleston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
College of Charleston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Drexel's last 7 games at home
Drexel is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

7:00 PM
GEORGIA TECH vs. NOTRE DAME
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia Tech's last 7 games on the road
Georgia Tech is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Notre Dame is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
Notre Dame is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games

7:00 PM
RUTGERS vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers's last 5 games on the road
Rutgers is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Central Florida is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
Central Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
RICHMOND vs. GEORGE MASON
Richmond is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Richmond's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of George Mason's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of George Mason's last 7 games

7:00 PM
AKRON vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Akron's last 8 games on the road
Akron is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Akron
Miami (Ohio) is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Akron

7:00 PM
ST. BONAVENTURE vs. LA SALLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Bonaventure's last 8 games on the road
St. Bonaventure is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
La Salle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Bonaventure
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of La Salle's last 7 games

7:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. OHIO
Buffalo is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ohio's last 10 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Ohio is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Buffalo

7:00 PM
HOFSTRA vs. WILLIAM & MARY
Hofstra is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Hofstra is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
William & Mary is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing Hofstra
William & Mary is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Hofstra

7:00 PM
MICHIGAN vs. PURDUE
Michigan is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Purdue
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan's last 6 games when playing on the road against Purdue
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Purdue's last 6 games when playing Michigan
Purdue is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Michigan

7:00 PM
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. BALL STATE
Western Michigan is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Western Michigan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Ball State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
Ball State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
DELAWARE vs. UNC WILMINGTON
Delaware is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against UNC Wilmington
Delaware is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Delaware
UNC Wilmington is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Delaware

7:00 PM
KENT STATE vs. BOWLING GREEN
Kent State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kent State's last 7 games on the road
Bowling Green is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 9 games at home

7:00 PM
TOWSON vs. JAMES MADISON
Towson is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Towson is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against James Madison
James Madison is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of James Madison's last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
TOLEDO vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Northern Illinois
Toledo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Northern Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games when playing at home against Toledo
Northern Illinois is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toledo

8:00 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
North Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against North Carolina St
The total has gone OVER in 7 of North Carolina's last 9 games when playing on the road against North Carolina St
North Carolina State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing North Carolina
North Carolina State is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games when playing North Carolina

8:00 PM
ALABAMA vs. MISSISSIPPI
Alabama is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Alabama is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi's last 6 games when playing at home against Alabama
Mississippi is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Alabama

8:00 PM
WEST VIRGINIA vs. IOWA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of West Virginia's last 7 games on the road
West Virginia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Iowa State's last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Iowa State's last 10 games

8:00 PM
BELMONT vs. SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Belmont is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Belmont's last 5 games on the road
SIU Edwardsville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of SIU Edwardsville's last 5 games

8:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Mississippi State is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State's last 6 games when playing Tennessee

8:00 PM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS vs. NORTHERN IOWA
Southern Illinois is 4-20 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Illinois's last 6 games on the road
Northern Iowa is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Southern Illinois

8:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston College is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Boston College is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

8:00 PM
BUTLER vs. VILLANOVA
Butler is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Butler is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Villanova is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Villanova's last 17 games

8:00 PM
TEXAS A&M vs. LSU
Texas A&M is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas A&M is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LSU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LSU's last 5 games at home

8:05 PM
INDIANA STATE vs. ILLINOIS STATE
Indiana State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Illinois State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana State's last 9 games on the road
Illinois State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Indiana State
Illinois State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indiana State

9:00 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. AUBURN
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Auburn
South Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Auburn
Auburn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing South Carolina
Auburn is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against South Carolina

9:00 PM
BAYLOR vs. TEXAS
Baylor is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor's last 5 games on the road
Texas is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Baylor
Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baylor

9:00 PM
CALIFORNIA vs. ARIZONA
California is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of California's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
Arizona is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

9:00 PM
NEBRASKA vs. ILLINOIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nebraska's last 5 games on the road
Nebraska is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Nebraska
Illinois is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. TULANE
Florida Atlantic is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida Atlantic's last 5 games on the road
Tulane is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tulane is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

9:05 PM
BOISE STATE vs. FRESNO STATE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boise State's last 11 games when playing on the road against Fresno State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games on the road
Fresno State is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Boise State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Fresno State's last 10 games when playing Boise State

11:00 PM
STANFORD vs. ARIZONA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Stanford's last 7 games on the road
Stanford is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona State is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Arizona State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

11:05 PM
COLORADO STATE vs. UNLV
Colorado State is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against UNLV
Colorado State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against UNLV
UNLV is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Colorado State
UNLV is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado State

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

College Basketball Information

Michigan (-11) beat Purdue 75-66 Jan 30, making 7-13 from arc; they've won four of last five series games, winning by 2-5 in last two visits here. Wolverines split their last six games; underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in their road games. Michigan is 0-2 as a road favorite. Purdue lost seven of last nine games; they're 0-3 as a home underdog. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 6-9 against the spread.

Virginia won last 11 games (8-3 vs spread); they play Syracuse in next game Saturday, can't look past Miami squad that won three of last four games, covered five of last seven- they're 4-0 as road dogs. ACC double digit home favorites are 7-12 vs spread. Miami won five of last six games vs Virginia, with last three wins by 3 or less points or in OT, but they lost last two visits to Charlottesville, by 1-18 points.

Buffalo won five of last six games, but loss was 73-70 (-5.5) at home to Ohio 11 days ago, when Bulls blew 10-point lead with 7:35 left. MAC underdogs are 21-14 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points. Bobcats won last seven games with Buffalo, winning last two games here by 8-18 points. Bulls are 5-2 vs spread on road; all fouir of their MAC losses are by 6 or less points. Ohio is just 2-5 as a home favorite.

Charleston lost six of last nine games, but beat Drexel 47-46 (-3.5) Feb 13, in hideous brickfest where teams combined to go 2-22 from arc, 25-49 on foul line. Cougars lost six of last nine games, covered one of its last five- they lost last five road games, last two in OT. CAA home favorites of 5 or less points are 6-17 vs spread. Drexel won four of last six games but is 1-4-1 as a home favorite- they're 1-4 in games decided by 5 or less.

West Virginia (+2) made 13-22 from arc in 102-77 home rout of Iowa St. Feb 10, but is 0-2 since, allowing 88 points both games. WVU is 2-2-1 as road underdogs; they lost last two road games, by 14-17 points. Iowa State won six of last seven games, but is 2-5 as home favorite; they are 2-10 vs spread in last dozen games. Big X home favorites of 9+ points are 7-10 vs spread. 12 of last 14 West Virginia games went over total.

Indiana State (-8.5) made 11-21 from arc, beat Illinois State 76-62 Jan 25 at home, its 5th win in last seven series games, but Sycamores lost last two visits here, by 13-2 points. Indiana State split its last six road tilts, covered one of last six overall. Illinois State is 7-1 at home, with loss by 15 to Wichita State; they're 4-6 in last ten games overall. MVC home teams are 17-14 in games where spread was 5 or less points.

LSU won its last seven home games, but four of seven wins were by 7 or less points; Tigers (-3.5) lost 83-73 at Texas A&M Feb 12- Aggies made 10-23 from arc in game where LSU shot 59% inside arc. LSU lost four of last six games but had Kentucky beat in Rupp Saturday before tiring out late. SEC double digit favorites are 11-14 vs spread. A&M won four of last six games, covering last four- they're 2-4 as a road underdog.

North Carolina won/covered its last nine games; they beat NC State in first meeting 84-70 (-9.5), rebounding 22 of its 46 missed shots, totally dominating boards. Tar Heels is 21-2 in last 23 series games, but lost in Raleighby 8 LY. ACC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 7-12 vs spread. Eight of last 11 UNC games went over the total. Wolfpack won six of last nine games, covered four of their last five.

Home team won four of five Nebraska-Illinois games; Huskers (-3) beat Illini 67-58 Feb 12, after trailing by 6 early in second half. Nebraska won seven of last eight games, covering last five; they're 5-1 as underdogs on road, winning last two away games SU. Big Dozen home favorites of 4 or less points are 9-7 vs spread. Illini lost last five home games, nine of last 11 games overall- they're 1-5-1 vs spread at home.

Texas (+5.5) won 74-60 at Baylor Jan 25; regular season series has been swept nine of last 10 years; teams split last four games played here. Big X home favorites of 5 or less points are 10-6 vs spread. Four of last five Texas games went over total. Baylor won last four games, with two of last three going OT; they're 2-2-1 as road dogs. Texas won last six home games- they're 2-3 as home favorites- they lost last two games, on road.

Boise State (-14) led by 24 late in first half, beat Fresno State 86-79 Jan 4, in game where Bulldogs scored 40 points in last 10:00 to cover spread. Boise won seven of last eight series games, last three by 7-9-7. Fresno covered last eight games, won last three home games. Mountain West home teams are 8-13 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Nine of last ten Fresno games went over the total.

Arizona (-6.5) didn't score in last 2:42, lost 60-58 at Cal Feb 1, Wildcats' first loss of year- they lost at home to Cal LY, are 4-5 in last nine series games, with Cal covering last four visits here. Arizona won four of last five home games but covered one of last four. Bears covered twice in last nine games but won three of last four; their road losses are at UCLA by 12, USC by 8. Pac-12 double digit favorites are 14-12 vs spread.

Colorado State (-2) beat UNLV 75-57 at home Feb 5; they've lost four of last five visits here, losing by 19-2 in last two. Mountain West home favorites of 6 or less points are 16-24 vs spread. Last three State games went over total. Rams lost three of last four games, are 2-3 as road dogs in MW, with three losses by 7, two by 9 points. Rebels lost their last two games, are 2-4 as home favorites- they're 4-1 in last five at home.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

Wednesday's Action
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Michigan at Purdue

As of early this morning, most books had Michigan (19-7 straight up, 13-10-1 against the spread) installed as a five-point road favorite.

With four games remaining, Michigan is all alone atop the Big Ten standings after beating Michigan State for the second time this season Sunday afternoon in Ann Arbor. Nik Stauskas and Caris LaVert scored 25 and 23 points, respectively, to lead the Wolverines to a 79-70 win as 1.5-point home favorites. They committed just two turnovers and forced the Spartans into 13 giveaways. Glenn Robinson III also chipped in 15 points.

John Beilein's team is No. 14 in the RPI Rankings behind a 4-4 record vs. the Top 25, a 9-5 ledger against the Top 50 and a 10-6 mark versus the Top 100.

Purdue (15-12 SU, 8-15 ATS) is hoping to get an NIT bid at this point. The Boilermakers are just 5-9 in Big Ten play and they are winless against five RPI Top-25 opponents and 2-8 versus the Top 50.

Matt Painter's team has won 12 of its 15 home games, only to limp to an atrocious 3-8 spread record. Purdue is 0-3 as a home underdog with defeats by margins of nine, 14 and 15 points.

Purdue has lost back-to-back games since trouncing arch-rival Indiana at home two Saturdays ago. The Boilermakers got blasted 94-79 at home by Michigan State last Thursday. Then on Sunday at Nebraska, they were smashed 76-57 as 5.5-point underdogs. Bryson Scott was the only Boiler to show up in Lincoln, producing a double-double with 13 points and 10 rebounds.

The 'under' is 13-10 overall for the Boilers, 6-5 in its home games.

The 'over' has cashed in three of Michigan's last four games to improve to 13-10-1 overall.

Michigan has won three in a row over Purdue in this Big Ten rivalry and it hasn't tasted defeat in West Lafayette since 2010. However, the Boilers own a 3-0-1 spread record in the last four encounters. The 'over' is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings. When these schools squared off in Ann Arbor on Jan. 30, Michigan captured a 75-66 home win but Purdue took the cash as an 11-point underdog. Stauskas scored a team-best 16 points, while A.J. Hammons also had 16 points and eight boards in the losing effort.

The Big Ten Network will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

North Carolina at North Carolina State

As of early this morning, most books had North Carolina (20-7 straight up, 16-11 against the spread) as a 4.5-point road favorite.

North Carolina State (17-10 SU, 12-11-1 ATS) has won six of its last nine games both SU and ATS, including Saturday's 71-64 win at Va. Tech as a 2.5-point road 'chalk.' T.J. Warren exploded for a game-high 31 points to lead the Wolfpack into the win column.

Mark Gottfried's team is sitting at No. 55 in the RPI Rankings, leaving it starving for a win in this spot. The Wolfpack blew a golden opportunity to get a signature win at Syracuse two Saturdays ago, in part due to a shaky call but mostly due to a costly turnover. N.C. State is winless in seven games against the RPI Top 50 and has a 3-8 record versus the Top 100.

North Carolina has won nine in a row both SU and ATS to improve to 10-4 in ACC action. Roy Williams's team is coming off Saturday's 105-72 win over Wake Forest as a 14-point home favorite. Leslie McDonald led six double-figure scorers with 19 points thanks to 5-of-6 shooting from 3-point land.

UNC's surge has allowed it to climb to No. 22 in the RPI Rankings. The Tar Heels 3-3 against the RPI Top 25, 6-3 vs. the Top 50 and 10-4 against Top-100 foes.

UNC has dominated this Tobacco Road Rivalry recently, winning nine of the last 10 meetings while going 8-2 versus the number. When these teams met in Chapel Hill on Feb. 1, the Tar Heels collected an 84-70 win as 9.5-point home favorites. McDonald scored a team-high 20 points, while James Michael McAdoo had a double-double with 16 points and 13 rebounds. Marcus Paige finished with 15 points and five assists. In the losing effort, Warren had 21 points, eight boards, three steals and two blocked shots. Desmond Lee added 18 points.

The 'over' is on a 6-2 run in N.C. State's last eight games, cashing in three straight home contests. For the season, the Wolfpack has seen the 'under' go 12-11-1 overall, 6-6 in its home outings.

The 'over' is in the midst of an 8-3 spree in UNC's last 11 games to improve to 13-13 overall.

Gamblers can tune into this ACC showdown at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on DirecTV channel 724 as part of the ESPN Game Plan.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

After getting clubbed 71-56 last night in Athens, Missouri fell into ninth place in the SEC and one game below .500 in conference play. The Tigers got swept by Georgia this year and suffered another killer loss this past Saturday at Alabama. The Bulldogs are in third place in the SEC with a 10-5 record in league play, but they have no shot at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. But UGA has saved Mark Fox's job and will have a good squad next year, assuming Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines return healthy.

Nebraska is on an 11-1 ATS run in its last 12 games as it rolls into Champaign-Urbana tonight to face Illinois as an underdog.

Florida survived a game effort from Vanderbilt last night thanks to solid defense and the offense of Dorian Finney-Smith, who broke out of a prolonged slump to score 19 points and grab nine rebounds. UF back-up freshman PG Kasey Hill missed his third consecutive game with a groin injury. I would think Hill will be ready for Saturday's home game vs. LSU.

Xavier and Kansas State picked up monster road wins last night at State John's and at Texas Tech, respectively. However, the biggest bubble winner on Tuesday had to be Minnesota. The Gophers knocked off Iowa 95-89 as 3.5-point home underdogs. Austin Hollins dropped 27 points on the Hawkeyes.

DePaul ended its 10-game losing streak by beating Seton Hall 65-60 last night as a 5.5-point home underdog.

The 'under' improved to 21-4 in Bradley games when its 69-49 home loss to Wichita State saw the 118 combined points stay 'under' the 130.5-point total.

With the win over Bradley, the Shockers became the first 30-0 team since the 1990-1991 UNLV team led by Larry Johnson, Stacy 'The Plastic Man' Augmon, Greg Anthony and Anderson Hunt.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

NCAA Tournament Upset Threats
By Joe Nelson
Playbook.com

The 2013 NCAA Tournament featured some big surprises with teams seeded #9, #12, #13, and #15 all making it to the Sweet 16, with #9 seed Wichita State making the Final Four along with two #4 seeds. This year's tournament may not have a 'Dunk City' or a 'shocking' final four entrant but here are a few deep sleepers that could win a few games from double-digit seed positions. That is, of course, if they get in.

Wisconsin-Green Bay: The Horizon League lost a couple of programs before this season (notably Butler) but Green Bay has dominated the league at 12-2 while going 22-5 overall. The Phoenix will be the heavy favorite to win the automatic tournament bid in the post-season tournament but they have a chance to get an at-large bid if they get upset. Green Bay has played two elite teams this season and they played commendably in those contests, beating Virginia and losing by just three against Wisconsin. 7'1" senior center Alec Brown is a NBA prospect while the backcourt is led by diminutive junior Keifer Sykes who has scored over 20 points per game. The Phoenix has solid depth with eight players averaging at least 11 minutes per game and there is good balance with strong efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball. Green Bay has shown versatility winning with great defense in holding 12 foes to fewer than 60 points this season while also scoring 80 or more points nine separate times. This is a complete team with veteran talent and a team that no foe will want to draw in a possibly the dreaded #5/12 matchup.

St. John's: It has taken some time to develop but this young Red Storm squad had hit its stride late in the season. Half of the 10 losses for St. John's have come against top 10 RPI teams and all of those games were close games with three of the five defeats decided by five points or less. St. John's nearly won at Villanova last weekend and while this could be a team that ends up right on the bubble, wins in nine of the last 11 games could help to benefit the case for inclusion. St. John's does not have a great deal of quality wins outside of a win over Creighton but this squad has next level talent and a proven veteran coach that has the team peaking at the right time after some early ups-and-downs. Having already played many of the top teams in the country should help to prepare the team for a potential first round matchup against a less talented team in a likely #8/9 or #7/10 draw should St. John's finish up the season strong. St. John's would also be a candidate for one of the first four play-in games depending on how the season finishes out and where the bubble ends up. In recent NCAA Tournaments teams like Virginia Commonwealth and LaSalle have used those games as springboards to great runs in March Madness and this is a team to keep an eye should they make the dance field.

Richmond: The Atlantic 10 has no shortage of quality teams with St. Louis, Virginia Commonwealth, George Washington, and St. Joseph's getting the most attention. Richmond is a team that may be overlooked as the Spiders feature one of the best defenses in the conference and this squad is battle tested after playing several prominent non-conference games. The Spiders did not win many of those games which will have the program teetering on the NCAA Tournament bubble but playing close with teams with elite talent like Florida and North Carolina should give the team confidence in any matchup. The Spiders are led by their backcourt with Cedrick Lindsay and Kendall Anthony being the top performers on the team and there has been great improvement as the year has gone by from the talented young frontcourt. Richmond has been one of the better teams in the nation at defending the 3-point shot which means they could give trouble to a favorite that is reliant on outside shooting in a tournament setting. Richmond has work to do to even make the field but this team could be an overlooked upset threat in March.

Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders currently lead the Conference USA standings but no team in the league is a guaranteed a spot in the big dance. Five teams are currently 10-3 or better in the standings as the monster league with 16 teams is watered down with some of the new entrants struggling at the bottom. Middle Tennessee State has made a smooth transition to the conference but they will need to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament field. No team is playing better late in the season with the Blue Raiders winning nine in a row heading into this week's big game at Louisiana Tech. Five wins on current streak have come on the road and the Blue Raiders played some credible games in the non-conference season with losses to Florida, Cincinnati, and Mississippi. Being fairly centrally located can also be a plus for the Blue Raiders in the tournament as they won't face long travel unless they are sent out west to San Diego or Spokane. This is a very tough defensive team that forces a great deal of turnovers with a lot of pressure, something that has led teams like Louisville and VCU to tournament success in recent years. A veteran squad with four seniors that contribute significantly could be a threat if they can get into the picture as last season the Blue Raiders met disappointment with a loss in a first four game with St. Mary's.

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers started the Big Ten season 0-4 and that was after suffering four non-conference losses. Nebraska is 8-2 in the last 10 games however with marquee wins over Ohio State and at Michigan State. This is a team that is on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble right now but with a favorable schedule down the stretch they could make a compelling case for inclusion barring a bad loss or a one-and-done showing in the Big Ten tournament. Nebraska might need to beat Wisconsin in the regular season finale to get into the tournament but should the Huskers take three of the final four games and finish 11-7 in a very strong Big Ten, it will be tough to leave them out. This is a team that no one will want to see lined up against them in the bracket as a young team with only one senior has improved dramatically as the season has gone on and is starting to win games away from home. Six of the last seven foes have been held below 60 points as the defensive efficiency ratings continue to support Nebraska as a high quality team and while the offense is not explosive, the Huskers do a great job of taking care of the ball and getting to the line. This is a team that is much better than the overall season picture represents and would be a dangerous double-digit seed in the big dance.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 2/26

NCAA Basketball Picks

Miami (FL) at Virginia

The Hurricanes head to Charlottesville tonight to face a Virginia team that is coming off a 70-49 win over Notre Dame and is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games following a SU victory of more than 20 points. Virginia is the pick (-10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-10 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 26 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST

Game 721-722: Georgia Tech at Notre Dame (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 59.306; Notre Dame 62.941 Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 3 1/2; 141 Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 6; 136 Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+6); Over

Game 723-724: Rhode Island at Massachusetts (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 52.645; Massachusetts 66.710 Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 14 Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-10 1/2)

Game 725-726: St. Bonaventure at LaSalle (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 62.866; LaSalle 59.748 Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 3 Vegas Line: Pick Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure

Game 727-728: Rutgers at Central Florida (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 57.584; Central Florida 58.490 Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 1; 143 Vegas Line: Central Florida by 4 1/2; 148 Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+4 1/2); Under

Game 729-730: Michigan at Purdue (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 68.843; Purdue 68.085 Dunkel Line: Michigan by 1; 136 Vegas Line: Michigan by 5 1/2; 140 Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+5 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: Connecticut at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 74.213; South Florida 56.307 Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 18; 139 Vegas Line: Connecticut by 11; 133 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-11); Over

Game 733-734: Miami (FL) at Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 59.754; Virginia 75.465 Dunkel Line: Virginia by 15 1/2 Vegas Line: Virginia by 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-10 1/2)

Game 735-736: Richmond at George Mason (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 62.436; George Mason 58.375 Dunkel Line: Richmond by 4 Vegas Line: Pick Dunkel Pick: Richmond

Game 737-738: Delaware at NC-Wilmington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 57.992; NC-Wilmington 50.411 Dunkel Line: Delaware by 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Delaware by 3 Dunkel Pick: Delaware (-3)

Game 739-740: Towson at James Madison (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Towson 57.325; James Madison 51.006 Dunkel Line: Towson by 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Towson by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Towson (-1 1/2)

Game 741-742: Hofstra at William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hofstra 44.293; William & Mary 56.769 Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 12 1/2 Vegas Line: William & Mary by 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-10 1/2)

Game 743-744: Kent State at Bowling Green (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 49.615; Bowling Green 56.156 Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 2 Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-2)

Game 745-746: Akron at Miami (OH) (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Akron 56.402; Miami (OH) 51.909 Dunkel Line: Akron by 4 1/2 Vegas Line: Akron by 1 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Akron (-1 1/2)

Game 747-748: Buffalo at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 56.769; Ohio 62.317 Dunkel Line: Ohio by 5 1/2 Vegas Line: Ohio by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-2 1/2)

Game 749-750: Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 45.274; Eastern Michigan 61.009 Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 15 1/2 Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 11 Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-11)

Game 751-752: Western Michigan at Ball State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.299; Ball State 50.358 Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 5 Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+6 1/2)

Game 753-754: College of Charleston at Drexel (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 52.847; Drexel 55.742 Dunkel Line: Drexel by 3 Vegas Line: Drexel by 5 Dunkel Pick: College of Charleston (+5)

Game 755-756: West Virginia at Iowa State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 69.203; Iowa State 71.582 Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 2 1/2 Vegas Line: Iowa State by 9 Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+9)

Game 757-758: Alabama at Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 56.887; Mississippi 66.359 Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Mississippi by 6 Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (-6)

Game 759-760: Tennessee at Mississippi State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 68.155; Mississippi State 56.489 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 11 1/2 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-9 1/2)

Game 761-762: Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 58.289; Northern Iowa 59.976 Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 1 1/2 Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+7 1/2)

Game 763-764: Toledo at Northern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 59.082; Northern Illinois 51.407 Dunkel Line: Toledo by 8 Vegas Line: Toledo by 6 Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-6)

Game 765-766: Indiana State at Illinois State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 58.576; Illinois State 57.357 Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 1 Vegas Line: Illinois State by 2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+2)

Game 767-768: Butler at Villanova (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Butler 58.615; Villanova 76.955 Dunkel Line: Villanova by 18 1/2; 138 Vegas Line: Villanova by 15; 136 Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-15); Over

Game 769-770: Pittsburgh at Boston College (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 65.792; Boston College 64.609 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+7)

Game 771-772: Texas A&M at LSU (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 57.042; LSU 68.531 Dunkel Line: LSU by 11 1/2 Vegas Line: LSU by 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LSU (-9 1/2)

Game 773-774: North Carolina at NC State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 72.840; NC State 64.968 Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 8 Vegas Line: North Carolina by 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-4 1/2)

Game 775-776: Nebraska at Illinois (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 62.751; Illinois 68.668 Dunkel Line: Illinois by 6; 122 Vegas Line: Illinois by 3; 126 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-3); Under

Game 777-778: South Carolina at Auburn (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 58.028; Auburn 66.759 Dunkel Line: Auburn by 8 1/2; 151 Vegas Line: Auburn by 6 1/2; 145 Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-6 1/2); Over

Game 779-780: Baylor at Texas (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 66.946; Texas 75.769 Dunkel Line: Texas by 9; 142 Vegas Line: Texas by 4; 139 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-4); Over

Game 781-782: Florida Atlantic at Tulane (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 50.977; Tulane 55.119 Dunkel Line: Tulane by 4 Vegas Line: Tulane by 1 Dunkel Pick: Tulane (-1)

Game 783-784: Boise State at Fresno State (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 62.601; Fresno State 59.217 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 3 1/2; 159 Vegas Line: Boise State by 1 1/2; 147 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-1 1/2); Over

Game 785-786: California at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: California 64.418; Arizona 78.772 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 141/2; 125 Vegas Line: Arizona by 12 1/2; 133 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-12 1/2); Under

Game 787-788: Stanford at Arizona State (11:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 66.822; Arizona State 72.681 Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 6; 146 Vegas Line: Arizona State by 1; 141 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-1); Over

Game 789-790: Colorado State at UNLV (11:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 57.221; UNLV 66.324 Dunkel Line: UNLV by 9; 132 Vegas Line: UNLV by 6; 137 Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-6); Under

Game 791-792: Belmont at SIU-Edwardsville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 52.558; SIU-Edwardsville 52.109 Dunkel Line: Even Vegas Line: Belmont by 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: SIU-Edwardsville (+7 1/2)