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**TheGame** · 03-13-2014, 07:05 AM

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/13

SEC Tournament Betting Cheat Sheet: Round 2
By Covers.com

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Missouri Tigers

The Aggies limp into the tourney having lost three of their last four games, including a surprising 69-64 home loss to Auburn on Saturday, and with just eight scholarship players on the roster. Junior forward Jamal Jones, who leads the team in scoring (13.4) and averaged 16 points in SEC play, missed practice on both Monday and Tuesday with a 103-degree temperature and is questionable for the game.

The Tigers are 4-1 in tournament play under Frank Haith, including the 2012 Big 12 Tournament title, and went 1-1 last season in their first SEC Tourney. Junior guard Jabari Brown (19.7) leads the team in scoring and was a first team all-SEC pick while backcourt mate Jordan Clarkson ranks second in scoring (18.1) and was chosen to the second team.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
* Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.
* Aggies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games.
* Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers

Alabama has won two of its last three contests to close out the regular season, including an impressive 83-58 victory over Arkansas. The Crimson Tide hope to beat LSU for the second time this season following their 82-80 win on Jan. 25 and spring a few surprises in the conference tournament.

The seventh-seeded Tigers dropped a 69-61 decision at home to Georgia on Senior Day, which likely ensured that they will miss the NCAA tournament for the fifth consecutive year. Johnny O'Bryant III, who leads the team in scoring (15.6) and rebounding (7.9), was held to just five points on 2-of-8 shooting in the loss to Georgia.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Southeastern.
* Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

The Gamecocks were hot down the stretch, winning three of their last four games including a 72-67 upset of then-No. 17 Kentucky. Senior guard Brenton Williams (15.2) leads the team in scoring and had 29 points in a 71-64 loss to the Razorbacks on Feb. 19. Freshman guard Duane Notice had a career-high 23 points in Wednesday night's win over Auburn, including 4-of-4 3-pointers, and also grabbed eight rebounds.

Arkansas seemed to be building up a lot of momentum for the SEC tournament with six straight wins before ending the regular season with a 83-58 clunker at Alabama. Freshman forward Bobby Portis was an all-SEC second team pick and is averaging 12.4 points and 6.6 rebounds. Junior guard Rashad Madden leads the Hogs in scoring (12.7) and has made a team-high 48 3-pointers.

TRENDS:

* South Carolina is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU win.
* Arkansas is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 neutral site games.
* Under is 4-0 in South Carolina's last four games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Arkansas' last five neutral site games.

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Mississippi Rebels

Mississippi State, the 14th seed, opened the tournament with an impressive 82-68 victory over No. 11 Vanderbilt, which snapped a 13-game losing streak. The Bulldogs split the season series with the Rebels as each team emerged victorious on their home court. Mississippi State has won eight of the last 11 meetings in the series and 23 of the last 32 as it hopes to continue its dominance over its bitter rival and advance to the quarterfinals.

Marshall Henderson, who leads the Rebels in scoring (19) and steals (1.5), has knocked down at least one 3-point field goal in an SEC-record 64 straight games. Henderson scored a team-high 18 points, but went 2-of-13 from beyond the arc against Vanderbilt to close out the regular season. Ole Miss is ranked 20th nationally in blocks per game (5.7) and recorded eight in its victory over Mississippi State on Jan. 25.

TRENDS:

* Mississippi State is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Mississippi is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Mississippi's last six games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Mississippi State's last seven games following a SU win.

**TheGame** · 03-13-2014, 07:06 AM

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/13

ACC Tournament Betting Cheat Sheet: Round 2
By Covers.com

Florida State Seminoles vs. Maryland Terrapins (-1)

Ninth seed Florida State comes in with four victories in its last six games, but dropped a 74-58 decision to Syracuse on Sunday. Aaron Thomas leads a balanced offense at 14.1 points per game and Ian Miller has contributed 13.7 – including 15.6 the last five games as a starter.

The eighth-seeded Terrapins, who move to the Big Ten next season, knocked off ACC regular-season champion Virginia 75-69 in overtime Sunday and look poised to make a run in the conference tournament again. The Terrapins likely have to win four straight contests and earn the automatic bid to reach the NCAA Tournament, but a similar group won five of seven postseason games a year ago.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
* Seminoles are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Terrapins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-8)

Robert Morris-transfer Coron Williams has been the top offensive threat for the Demon Deacons of late while averaging 16.8 points over the last four games, including 25 in Wednesday’s victory. Leading scorer Codi Miller-McIntyre (12.7) is averaging fewer than 10 points the last nine games, but has dished out at least six assists in six of them.

The Panthers beat the No. 12 seed Demon Deacons 80-65 during the regular season. The Panthers come into the event after leading the league in assists per game, finishing second in rebounding margin and third in scoring with two important veteran leaders. Senior Lamar Patterson is fourth in the ACC in scoring and made the All-ACC second team while fellow senior Tailb Zanna gives the Panthers a 6-9 presence inside.

TRENDS:

* Demon Deacons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win.
* Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Over is 13-4 in Demon Deacons last 17 neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last six overall.

Miami Hurricanes vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (+2)

The Hurricanes likely need to repeat as tournament champion to reach the NCAA Tournament, but needed stingy defense to survive shooting 38.6 percent from the field against Virginia Tech. Rion Brown scored 15 points and leads the Hurricanes in scoring at 15.3 points, averaging 20 in his last three games prior to Wednesday.

T.J. Warren put together a fabulous season, leading the ACC in scoring at 24.8 points, field-goal percentage at 53.2 and offensive rebounding at 3.2 per contest. The sophomore closed the regular season with a career-high 42 points against Boston College on Sunday after scoring 41 at Pittsburgh on March 3.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Miami is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in North Carolina State's last six games.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers

Georgia Tech has won three in a row, including an upset of then seventh-ranked Syracuse, and got 20 points and 13 rebounds from Robert Carter Jr. in its tournament opener. Carter is averaging 17.4 points and 8.4 rebounds in his past five games, fully recovered from a December knee injury, and the Yellow Jackets are as healthy as they have been all season.

Clemson has defeated 11th seed Georgia Tech twice and, should the Tigers advance, they would face No. 3 seed Duke in Friday’s quarterfinals – a team the Tigers beat in their only matchup. The Tigers will turn to junior forward K.J. McDaniels, the ACC’s top shot blocker at 2.8 per game and the conference’s defensive player of the year, to lead the way. McDaniels has five games of at least six blocked shots this season, and leads Clemson in scoring, rebounding, blocks and steals.

TRENDS:

* Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Clemson is 5-2 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.
* Over is 7-1 in Clemson's last eight games overall.
* Under is 16-6 in Georgia Tech's last 22 neutral site games.

**TheGame** · 03-13-2014, 07:06 AM

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/13

Big Ten Tournament Betting Cheat Sheet: Round 1
By Covers.com

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Illinois lost in eight in a row and 10 of 11 during a slide that dropped it to the bottom of the conference. The ninth-seeded Illini rebounded with four victories in their final five games, including wins at Michigan State and Iowa.

The eighth-seeded Hoosiers ended their regular season with a four-point loss to the Wolverines on Saturday and have dropped two straight, but were playing some of their best basketball prior to that after enduring their own midseason swoon. Indiana should have Big Ten Freshman of the Year Noah Vonleh back near full strength after he was limited in the season finale following a two-game absence due to a foot injury.

TRENDS:

* Under is 12-5-1 in the last 18 meetings.
* Fighting Illini are 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Fighting Illini are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Hoosiers are 9-20-2 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

The Boilermakers didn’t catch much of a break over their final six games, playing five of the teams that finished among the top six of the conference while also losing key contributors in Sterling Carter to a torn ACL and Jay Simpson to a career-ending heart condition.

The fifth-seeded Buckeyes claimed their third tournament championship over the last four seasons last March and have won 18 of their last 22 games at the event. Overall, Ohio State has four tourney titles and made the final game seven times in 10 seasons under coach Thad Matta.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Boilermakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
* Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS loss.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers

The tenth-seeded Nittany Lions finished 6-12 in league action to match their conference win total from their first two seasons under coach Patrick Chambers and proved they have the ability to pull an upset or two by sweeping Ohio State. Penn State is 12-44 – including 0-2 in the conference tournament – against league foes since Chambers took over prior to the start of the 2011-12 season.

The sixth-seeded Golden Gophers sport the nation’s seventh-best strength of schedule, but figure to be squarely on the bubble thanks to their uneven play once conference play started. Minnesota helped its cause with Sunday’s 81-63 victory over the Nittany Lions for its second win in three games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 16-4 in the last 20 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Nittany Lions last six neutral site games.

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Since Wildcats' second-leading scorer JerShon Cobb was lost for the season four games ago with a foot injury, Alex Olah has emerged as the clear second option behind Drew Crawford. The sophomore center has averaged 16.3 points and shot 61.5 percent over that time, a dramatic increase from 8.1 points per game and 48 percent over his first 27 contests.

The sixth-seeded Hawkeyes appeared to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament in mid-February, but losses in five of their final six contests have made the Big Dance much less of a certainty. Iowa enjoyed a plus-18.5 rebounding margin over Northwestern in their two meetings this season.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Wildcats are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.
* Hawkeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.

**TheGame** · 03-13-2014, 07:06 AM

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/13

Thursday's Big Ten Notes
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

The Big Ten men’s college basketball tournament gets underway this Thursday from Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indiana. The bracket is set-up so the opening round of the tournament will feature four matchups between seeds five through 12 starting with No. 9 Illinois facing off against No. 8 Indiana followed by No. 12 Purdue taking on No. 5 Ohio State in the two afternoon games.

No. 9 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers

Illinois has been opened as a +5000 moderate longshot to win this year’s tournament and while it finished conference play with a straight-up record of 7-11, it did close things out with a 4-1 SU run that included a couple of stunning road victories.

On March 1, it pulled-off a 53-46 upset of Michigan State as a 13-point underdog followed by a 66-63 shocker against Iowa in its season finale as a 11½-point underdog. The Fighting Illini also went 4-1 against the spread down the stretch and the total stayed UNDER in seven of its last eight games.

Illinois will need all the help it can get after averaging just 65 points per game while shooting 40.8 percent from the field and 31.8 percent from 3-point range. Rayvonte Rice led the way with 15.7 points and Tracy Abrams is the only other player scoring in double figures with 10.5 PPG.

The Hoosiers also went 7-11 SU in conference play but they ended the season with back-to-back losses to Nebraska and Michigan. They failed to cover as six-point home favorites in a 10-point loss to the Cornhuskers, but they hung tough against the Spartans in a four-point loss as 9½-point underdogs on the road. Indiana did cover in four of its last six games and the total went OVER in three of its last four outings.

Indiana has slightly better odds to make a run at winning it all at +2000, but it has little margin for error to even think past Thursday’s game. It definitely has the edge on offense with an average of 72.8 PPG and it scored 93 points in a Feb. 27 win over Iowa as well as 80 points in last Saturday’s loss to Michigan.

Yogi Ferrell scored 16 points in that season finale which was just below a team-high season average of 17.4 points and Will Sheehey dumped in 17 points which was well above his season average of 11.4 PPG. Overall, the Hoosiers have averaged 77.3 points in their last four contests.

These two split the regular season series 1-1 to keep things an even 4-4 SU over the past eight meetings. Indiana holds a 5-2-1 edge ATS during this same stretch of games and the total has been evenly split 4-4 as well. The Hoosiers have been opened as slight two-point favorites to break the current series tie.

No. 12 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes

Purdue started off play in the Big Ten this season with a 78-69 loss to then-No. 3 Ohio State as a six-point home underdog. Considering the Boilermakers have been opened as 8½ point underdogs for Thursday’s matchup there is a good chance they will end their 2014 Big Ten campaign the same way they started it. In between, they only won five conference games SU against 13 losses and their conference record ATS was 7-10-1.

Purdue brings a SU six-game losing streak into Thursday’s contest but it did cover in three of its last four outings with the total going OVER all four times. It is no surprise that as the No. 12 seed in this tournament its odds to win this week are listed as +20000, but it does not have the longest odds on the board. That dubious distinction goes to Northwestern at +50000.

Just to have a chance to advance past the first round, the Boilermakers will need to drastically improve upon their 42.7 shooting percentage from the field. They are averaging 72.6 PPG, but they are also allowing an average of 71.9 points on the other end of the court. The brother duo of Ronnie and Terone Johnson have combined to score 22.8 PPG while adding 7.4 rebounds and 6.1 assists.

Ohio State’s sudden and swift fall from grace in the Big Ten started shortly after that December 31 win over Purdue with a 2-5 SU slide in the month of January. The Buckeyes were able to return to form with a mid-season 6-1 SU run, but they went on to lose two of three down the stretch. The net result of this roller-coaster ride was a 10-8 SU record in the Big Ten and a 9-9 record ATS.

Despite all this inconsistency on the court, Ohio State remains a +400 favorite to win the Big Ten Tournament which is an oddsmaker’s testament to the actual talent on this team. The Buckeyes are averaging 70 PPG and shooting 45.1 percent from the field, but if LaQuinton Ross and Lenzelle Smith Jr. can get hot shooting the ball this team could make a run.

Ross leads the team with 14.8 points. He is shooting 44.9 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3-point range. Smith is adding 11.7 points while hitting 43.9 percent of his attempts from the floor and 35 percent from beyond the arc.

The second time these two met this season it was more of the same thing with Ohio State cruising to a 67-49 victory as an 11-point home favorite. The Buckeyes have now won the last five meetings SU and they have covered in the last four. The total stayed UNDER the 132.5-point closing line in that second game after going OVER in the previous six meetings.

Late Games

No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 7 Minnesota Golden Gophers

These two met twice this season with Minnesota winning both contests SU and ATS. It has now gone 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings with slight 5-3-1 edge ATS. The total went OVER the 137-point closing line in the Golden Gophers 81-63 romp over the Lions this past Sunday as seven-point home favorites. This was after it stayed UNDER in a tight 68-65 victory against Penn State on January 8 as 1½-point road favorites. Minnesota has been opened as a 4½-point favorite this time around.

No. 11 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 6 Iowa Hawkeyes

Both games in this season’s series were played in January with the Hawkeyes rolling to lopsided victories by an identical margin of 26 points. They hung 93 points on the Wildcats the first time they met as 18-point home favorites and then shut them down in a 76-50 rout as 9½-point road favorites later that month. Iowa’s current winning streak both SU and ATS in this matchup is now five games. The total has gone 2-2-1 during this run. The current betting line for Thursday night’s game has Iowa favored by 12 points.

**TheGame** · 03-13-2014, 07:06 AM

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/13

College Basketball Information

ACC Tournament

Miami survived brickfest with Va Tech yesterday; only one sub played more than 7 minutes, four starters played 33+. 'canes won three of last four with NC State; teams split this year. Wolfpack won first meeting 56-55, then lost rematch 85-70, when Miami shot 61% inside arc. State is 3-4 in its last seven games, with two losses by a point- they're 4-2 in this tourney under Gottfried, winning two games each year.

Big Dozen Tourney

Minnesota swept Penn State this season, 68-65 on road, 81-63 at home four days ago, when they shot 72% (18-25) inside arc; Gophers are 4-7 in last 11 games, with one win by more than 6 points. Lions lost six of last nine games, but they won two of last three road games. Gophers are 4-2 in first tourney games last six years, but defend arc (37.3%) worse than anyone in league; PSU is 3-8 in its last 11 first tourney games.

AAC Tournament

UConn swept Memphis this year, 83-73 here, 86-81 in OT at home Feb 15, when they outscored Mermphis 29-6 on foul line. Huskies shot 65% inside arc in first meeting; they scored 1.3/1.13 ppp in two series games. Memphis won 15 of last 16 conference tourney games, albeit in different league; Huskies won seven of last eight, but didn't play in tourney LY because of APR problems. Tough for UConn to play road game here.

Big X Tournament

Iowa State won four of last six games with Kansas State, splitting a pair this year; ISU won 81-75 at home, then lost rematch 80-73 on road 12 days ago. Cyclones shot 58 (28/30) FTs in two games, but were 9-18 on arc in their win, 7-27 in loss. Wildcats lost seven of last eight road tilts, with only win at Texas Tech. Iowa State is 1-8 in this event last eight years; K-State lost its first tourney games four of last six years.

Oklahoma State is 5-1 since Smart came back from suspension, beating Kansas 72-65 (-1.5) 12 days ago, after losing 80-78 (+5) in Lawrence in January (were down 17 at half). Embiid played 29:00 in Stillwater, will not play here; Jayhawks are 19-2 in this event last seven years, winning it five times. Cowboys won their first tourney games the last 10 years. Kansas lost two of last three games, giving up 92 points in last game at West Virginia, when Mountaineers took 40 foul shots.

West Virginia got swept by Texas this year, 80-69 at home (were 4-25 on arc, +12 turnovers), 88-71 in Austin Feb 15 (Texas shot 66% inside arc). Mountaineers are 1-9 last 10 times they scored less than 80 points; they're 0-3 in conference tourney games since winning Big East tourney in 2010. Longhorns won its first tourney game last eight years- they are 2-4 in last six games overall, with three of losses by 9+ points.

Big East Tournament

Over last decade, St John's is 3-6 in Big East tourney, despite playing on its home court; Red Storm split pair with Providence this year, losing in double OT (84-83) at home, winning 86-76 in rematch 9 days ago. Friars use bench less than any team in country, despite going to double OT in four conference games (2-2). St John's won 10 of last 13 games. Friars are 0-4 in this event last four years, with last three losses by 17+ points.

SEC Tournament

Alabama is 0-14 this season away from home, losing to USF, Drexel-- they won seven of its last nine games with LSU, beating them 80-78 (-2) Jan 25. Last three series games were decided by 3 or less points. Tide blew 19-point second half lead before rallying to win. Tigers are 4-6 in last ten games, losing seven of last eight away from home. Alabama won its first tourney game last five years; since '03, LSU is 4-3 in this round.

Conference USA Tournament

Four teams tied for first in C-USA, got first round bye; Southern Miss drew short straw, has true road game here at #5 Miners, who lost 77-68 at Southern Miss Feb 2, after leading by 12 in first half. Miners had to play yesterday, had stress-free win; they've won 18 of last 22 games, but lost four of last five games with Southern Miss, who won first game in tourney last eight years. USM is 5-3 SU on road in Conference USA.

Pac-12 Tournament

Utah is 0-6 vs Arizona in Pac-12 games, losing 65-56 in Tucson, 67-63 in OT in home rematch Feb 19 in two games this season; Utes played three starters 35+ minutes in tough win over Washington yesterday, its 4th win in last five games. Wildcats haven't won Pac-12 tourney in last 11 years; they're 4-3 in first round last seven years. Arizona split their last six away games, with none of the wins by more than five points.

Cal-Colorado split six Pac-12 meetings; Golden Bears beat Buffs 66-65 in OT at Berkeley five days ago in this year's only meeting, after trailing by 9 with 8/:52 left. Buffs played four starters 30+ minutes in tough win over USC- they're 2-3 in last five games, with both wins 59-56. Cal lost first tourney game four of last six years; they lost eight of last 13 games overall, after starting season 14-4. Senior G Booker is carrying Colorado.

UCLA won by hoop in Eugene this year, then lost 87-83 in double OT at home to Oregon when its two best players were suspended. Ducks won eight in row, are off bubble. Alford won MW tourney last two years, was 4-2 in first tourney game with Lobos; UCLA won first tourney game five of last six years, hasn't won tourney since '08. Oregon beat rival Beavers by 14 yesterday; no starter played more than 27:00.

MAC Tournament

Buffalo beat Eastern Michigan 86-76 (-4) at home Jan 11 in only meeting this year; Bulls won first tourney game four of last five years, but never won tourney, which is why Witherspoon was fired and Hurley is coach now-- this is his first conference tourney game. Eagles only played one starter more than 26:00 in last night's tense 53-48 win, played four subs 17:00+, plus they play 2-3 zone which is less taxing than playing man.

**TheGame** · 03-13-2014, 08:19 AM

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/13

StatFox Super Situations

TEXAS A&M at MISSOURI
Play On - Neutral court teams as an underdog (TEXAS A&M) revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team 98-51 since 1997. ( 65.8% | 41.9 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

MEMPHIS at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Neutral court teams (MEMPHIS) revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points 43-31 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.1% | 30.1 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

OLD DOMINION at MIDDLE TENN ST
Play Against - Neutral Court favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MIDDLE TENN ST) after 2 or more consecutive unders, an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games 29-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )

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NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/13

NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/13

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