NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/18

[TheGame]

NCAA Round 1 Betting Preview: Xavier vs. North Carolina State
By Covers.com

Xavier Musketeers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (+2.5, 142)

North Carolina State’s NCAA tournament hopes hung by a thread about two weeks ago, but that was before T.J. Warren went on a historic scoring spree. Warren, who looks to guide his team past fellow No. 12 seed Xavier on Tuesday in a first-round matchup in Dayton, Ohio, averaged 31.2 points over the his last five contests – including consecutive 40-point games. As a result, the Wolfpack won four of their final five after enduring a 1-4 stretch following a home loss to Miami (Fla.) on March 1.

After facing the nation’s leading scorer in Creighton’s Doug McDermott three times since the middle of January, squaring off against the ACC Player of the Year will hardly be a new challenge for a Musketeer team that has faced its share of dominant scorers. Xavier finished in a tie with Providence for third place in its inaugural season in the Big East and returns to the NCAA tournament for the eighth time in nine years after missing the Big Dance last season. The winner of this contest will head to Orlando, Fla. and face No. 5 seed Saint Louis on Thursday.

LINE HISTORY: NC State opened as 2-point dogs, moved to +1.5, back to +2 and up to the current +2.5. The total opened 142.

INJURY WATCH: Xavier - Kamall Richards (Knee, out for season)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "North Carolina State and Xavier are just about equal across the board in the important statistical categories. Xavier played the slightly tougher schedule, but NC State has some better wins over teams like Pittsburgh and Syracuse." Covers Experts' Steve Merril.

WHY BET XAVIER (21-12 SU, 18-13 ATS, 15-16 O/U): Working against the Musketeers is their recent history against McDermott, who averaged 31.3 points against them in their three meetings. Matt Stainbrook suffered a left MCL injury on March 3 against Seton Hall, which caused him to miss the next game and contributed to the Musketeers’ 1-3 finish. Stainbrook was limited to 24 minutes over the Musketeers’ last two contests, making a deep run by Xavier unlikely unless it can get more court time from a player who leads his team in rebounding (7.3) and ranks second in the Big East in field-goal percentage (55.3).

WHY BET NORTH CAROLINA STATE (21-13 SU, 18-12-1 ATS, 17-13-1 O/U): Warren became the first ACC player to score 40 points in consecutive games since Georgia Tech's Kenny Anderson in December 1990 and the first Wolfpack player to accomplish the feat since program legend David Thompson in December 1974. The nation’s third-leading scorer was held to four points in North Carolina State’s second-round loss to Temple last season, but has posted at least 20 points in 17 straight games. Ralston Turner is the only other player to carry a double-figure scoring average (10.2) and the only regular to shoot better than 28 percent from beyond the arc.

TRENDS:

* Wolfpack are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games.
* Musketeers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 8-1 in Wolfpack last nine overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Musketeers last seven Tuesday games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 61 percent of wagers are on North Carolina State.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/18

NCAA Round 1 Betting Preview: Mount St. Mary's vs. Albany
By Covers.com

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Albany Great Danes (-2.5, 141.5)

Although Albany has only one regular-season title in its 15-year Division I history, the Great Danes have turned into a regular visitor to the NCAA tournament. They will attempt to secure their first ever NCAA tournament victory Tuesday against fellow No.16 seed Mount St. Mary’s in a first-round game in Dayton, Ohio. Albany earned its fourth automatic bid in the last nine seasons by winning six of their final seven, knocking off the two 20-win teams in the American East tourney in the process.

The Great Danes held their opponents to an average of 55.5 points in those six late-season victories, something that figures to be a difficult challenge against the Mountaineers. Mount St. Mary’s, which led the Northeast Conference in scoring offense (76.3) as well as 3-point makes (284) and attempts (797), became the 24th team with a non-winning record to make the Big Dance with a surprising win over Robert Morris in the NEC title game. The postseason stay for the winner of this contest figures to be a short one, however, as the winner will face No. 1 overall seed Florida on Thursday.

LINE HISTORY: Albany opened as 1.5-opint faves and now sit at -2.5. The total opened at 141.5.

INJURY WATCH: Albany: guard Anthony Odunsi, out indefinitely (concussion).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Mount St. Mary's was just 12-16 before winning 4 straight to close the season. They are just one of three teams in the tournament with a negative offense/defense ratio. Albany plays at a slower pace and they have the much better defense," Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHY BET MOUNT ST. MARY’S (16-16): The Mountaineers closed the season on a four-game winning streak, shooting at least 50 percent in three of their final four games – including 60.4 percent in the NEC championship game. Mount St. Mary’s is one of eight teams in the nation with three active 1,000-point scorers, including Julian Norfleet (1,598 points), Sam Prescott (1,196) and NEC tournament MVP Rashad Whack (1,059) – all of whom were named to the all-tournament team. The Mountaineers score 34.9 percent of their points beyond the arc (17th-most in the country), but rank sixth-to-last in field-goal percentage defense (49.3).

WHY BET ALBANY (18-14): The Great Danes enter their second straight Big Dance with an experienced lineup that starts three seniors, a junior and a sophomore – all of whom were a part of their second-round NCAA tournament loss to Duke last season. Peter Hooley, the second-leading scorer in the AEC (15.7) and lone underclassman in the starting lineup, needed only 20 minutes to erupt for 30 points in Albany’s conference quarterfinal win on March 8. Hooley, who was named tournament MVP after averaging 23.7 points at the event, finished ninth in the conference in 3-point percentage (40.1) and first in free-throw accuracy (86 percent).

TRENDS:

* Mount St. Mary's is 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
* Albany is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Mount St. Mary's last four neutral site games.
* Under is 5-1 in Albany's last six non-conference games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Sixty-eight percent of the wagers are on Albany at -2.5

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/18

Tuesday's Play-In Action
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Mount Saint Mary's vs. Albany

The 2014 NCAA Tournament will open in Dayton tonight when Mount Saint Mary's (16-16 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) battles Albany for the right to face the event's No. 1 overall seed Florida on Thursday in Orlando. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Great Danes listed as 2.5-point favorites. The total is 141.5.

Albany (18-14 SU, 3-0 ATS) knocked off Vermont and Stony Brook in the semifinals and finals, respectively, of the America East Tournament. The Great Danes won outright as 6.5-point underdogs in both contests. In the finals against the Seawolves, Sam Rowley scored a game-high 18 points and D.J. Evans added 16 points.

Albany only faced seven opponents in the RPI's Top 150, winning only two of those games. The Great Danes' best win came on a neutral court against Vermont, an NIT participant that had an RPI of 108. They played just one RPI Top-100 foe, losing 58-46 at Pittsburgh on New Year's Eve.

Albany was a No. 16 seed in the 2006 NCAA Tournament and threw a scare into top-seeded UConn. The Great Danes led the Huskies 50-38 at the 11-minute mark of the second half, but Jim Calhoun's team eventually rallied to win by a 72-59 count.

Mt. State Mary's has won four in a row, including an 88-71 win over Robert Morris in the finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament. Rashad Whack led four Mountaineers in double figures with a team-best 20 points.

Mt. State Mary's went winless in four games against the RPI Top 100. The Mountaineers lost eight of 10 games against the RPI Top 150. They faced three Tournament teams, losing at Villanova (90-59), at BYU (108-76) and at Michigan State (98-65).

The 'over' is a perfect 3-0 for Albany. The 'over' went 4-1 for Mt. State Mary's.

Tip-off in Dayton is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. Eastern on TruTV.

Xavier vs. North Carolina State

As of early this morning, most spots had Xavier (21-12 SU, 18-13ATS) installed as a 2.5-point favorite. The total is 142 and gamblers can take N.C. State on the money line for a +125 return (risk $100 to win $125). The Musketeers are favored by 1.5 points in the first half, while the total is 66 points.

Chris Mack's team lost three of its last four games and nearly paid for it by missing the NCAAs. The Musketeers beat Marquette 68-65 as one-point underdogs in their Big East Tournament debut at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Justin Martin and Semaj Christon scored 19 and 18 points, respectively, in the win over the Golden Eagles. A win over Creighton in the semifinals would've prevented Xavier from having to go to the play-in game, but the Bluejays captured an 86-78 victory and took the cash as 6.5-point 'chalk.' In the losing effort, Isaiah Philmore scored 23 points and pulled down seven rebounds.

North Carolina State (21-13 SU, 18-12-1 ATS) earned one of the final spots in the field thanks to a strong showing at the ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack avenged a March 1 home loss to Miami by clipping the Hurricanes 67-58 as a two-point underdog. Next, Mark Gottfried's squad really flexed its muscle by beating Syracuse by a 66-63 count as a nine-point 'dog. N.C. State gave Duke fits in the semifinals before dropping a 75-67 decision as a 10-point puppy.

N.C. State has been on fire for our purposes, compiling a 10-2 spread record in its last 12 games. The Pack has covered the number in five consecutive contests.

When listed as an underdog this season, N.C. State owns a 12-6 spread record with eight outright victories. The Wolfpack's most impressive wins as underdogs came at Tennessee and at Pittsburgh. N.C. State has hooked up its backers in seven of its last eight 'dog situations.

Xavier has won four of 11 games against teams in tournament field, including scalps of Tennessee, Providence and Creighton at home. The Musketeers beat Cincinnati on a neutral court.

N.C. State won only four games out of 12 against schools that made the Tournament. The Wolfpack is led by T.J. Warren, the ACC Player of the Year who has averaged 31.5 points per game in the last five outings. Warren has scored 20 points or more in 17 consecutive games and is third in the nation in scoring (24.8 PPG). He scored at least 13 points in 33 of N.C. State's 34 games.

Christon is Xavier's leading scorer with a 17.1 PPG average. He has scored 18 points or more in five consecutive games. Christon also dished out 4.2 assists per contest Matt Stainbrook injured the MCL in his knee on March 3. The Musketeers' leading rebounder (7.3 RPG) missed one game and played just 24 minutes in two Big East Tournament games. Stainbrook, who averages 10.2 PPG, had 15 points and only boards in the last two outings.

Xavier has been an underdog in seven straight games. The Musketeers have been single-digit favorites 11 times, posting a stellar 8-3 spread record.

The 'over' is on an 8-1 run for N.C. State to improve to 17-13 overall.

The 'under' is 16-15 overall for Xavier.

TruTV will have the telecast 30 minutes after the first game at around 9:10 p.m. Eastern.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/18

College Basketball information

NCAA Play-In Games
Mt St Mary's hasn't played in week after winning NEC title game out at Robert Morris; they've won four games in row, were down 19 with 9:10 left in first-round win over St Francis. MSM is 0-2 vs teams in America East, losing by 6 to UMBC, 4 to Binghamton. Albany won title game on Long Island Saturday afternoon, had 5-hour bus ride home, hasn't had a lot of time to practice since; they're 6-1 in last seven games. Great Danes want slower tempo, have more experienced team- they played Duke in NCAAs last March. MSM coach is an old VCU assistamt- they want to play faster, press.

Xavier will have crowd support playing in Dayton; Musketeers are 6-8 in last 14 games- their big guy Stainbrook played only 24:00 in couple of Big East tourney games (foot). Xavier is 6-10 in road/neutral games, but beat Wake Forest by 15 in only game vs ACC opponent. Wolfpack won four of last five games, is 8-7 in road/neutral games- they lost by 11 to Cincinnati, Xavier's crosstown rival. Both teams are used to being in the NCAAs, but not this scenario; Xavier's last game was Friday, State's on Saturday, so Musketeers, with less travel time, have more prep time. Wolfpack's Warren will be best player on court.

Notes on Other Games

-- Robert Morris won NEC by two games, lost title game at home, has to play St John's team that is 11-4 in last 15 games. Colonials played an NIT game at home LY, beating Kentucky.
-- Florida Gulf Coast lost America Sun title game at home, visits Florida State team that went 5-3 in last eight ACC games. Eagles were in Sweet 16 of NCAAs LY; are they excited to be here?
-- West Virginia/Georgetown are both offensively challenged; both sides lost five of their last seven games. Hoyas won last four home games.

-- Belmont/Green Bay are both regular season champs who got upset in conference tourney; Bruins won 14 of last 17 games, haven't played in 10 days. Green Bay PG Sykes had bum ankle during Green Bay's OT loss in Horizon tourney, also ten days ago. Phoenix won 19 of its last 22 games overall.
-- Minnesota is 7-10 in last 17 games; they haven't played since losing on Friday in Big Dozen tourney. High Point lost by 35 to Georgetown, 21 to Syracuse, 41 to Arkansas- they haven't played in 11 days.
-- Georgia State blew 10-point lead with 4:00 to go Sunday, lost in OT in Louisiana, now is playing in Clemson 52 hours later. Tigers got beat in last 0;05 by Duke Friday- their last six games were all decided by 5 or less points, or in overtime.

-- Missouri is 15-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Davidson is well-coached, hasn't played in nine days; they're 4-10 in non-SoCon games, 1-6 vs top 100 teams, with only win vs Georgia and several ugly losses.
-- Arkansas fell off bubble by getting upset in last two games- they won last five home games. Indiana State was 2nd-best team in MVC, but isn't very athletic- they're 1-6 vs top 100 teams.
-- Utah was 2-7 on road in Pac-12, winning at USC/Cal; they beat BYU of WCC by 17 in rivalry game. St Mary's hasn't played in 9 days since losing WCC semis- they're 3-4 in last seven games overall.

-- Stony Brook lost America East final at home to Albany, now has to take 5-hour bus ride north to Albany to play Siena, which might be into this, since it is Patsos' first year with Saints. Siena won five of its last seven home games, with both losses in OT. Saints had more prep time.
-- VMI plays 3rd-fastest games in country; they've won nine of last 12 games, haven't played in 10 days. Canisius lost tough game to Iona in MAAC semis nine days ago; they start four seniors.
-- Wright State was handed home game in Horizon final, then laid an egg and lost; now they're visiting East Carolina squad that lost 14 of last 21 games after 10-2 start. ECU played four non-D-I teams. Oy.

-- Eastern Michigan is Syracuse clone that plays 2-3 zone; they won six of last eight games, with both losses to Toledo. Norfolk State doesn't do a lot with 3-pointers, which could be a problem here.
-- Chattanooga is coached by former VCU assistant, so they're going to press/run; they went 4-6 last ten games after starting out 8-0 in SoCon. East Tennessee State is 14-5 vs teams ranked outside top 200.

-- Valparaiso lost four of last six games; they're in bottom 10 in country in turning ball over. Columbia hasn't played in nine days- they only lost by 9 at Michigan State, by 6 to St John's.
-- Sam Houston State lost Southland final to SF Austin Saturday; they won pair of SWAC games this year, beating Prairie View in double OT, beating Pine Bluff by 26. Alabama State lost SWAC semifinal Friday.
-- Portland State won six of last eight games; they lost by 16 at home to Portland of WCC- their last game was Friday. San Diego hasn't played since losing WCC tourney in Vegas 10 days ago- they're 3-6 in last nine.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/18

StatFox Super Situations

W VIRGINIA at GEORGETOWN
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GEORGETOWN) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team 67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units ) 3-8 this year. ( 27.3% | -5.8 units )

W VIRGINIA at GEORGETOWN
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (W VIRGINIA) in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after a loss by 15 points or more 129-186 over the last 5 seasons. ( 41.0% | 73.5 units ) 34-50 this year. ( 40.5% | 20.0 units )

NC STATE at XAVIER
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 in a post-season tournament game, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record 68-32 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 32.8 units )

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Basketball Handicapping. News, notes and trends. 3/18

NORFOLK STATE vs. EASTERN MICHIGAN
No trends available
Eastern Michigan is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Eastern Michigan's last 7 games at home

7:00 PM
ROBERT MORRIS vs. ST. JOHN'S
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. John's last 6 games
St. John's is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

7:00 PM
CHATTANOOGA vs. EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Chattanooga is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Chattanooga is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against East Tennessee St
No trends available

7:00 PM
STONY BROOK vs. SIENA
No trends available
Siena is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Siena is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

7:00 PM
WEST VIRGINIA vs. GEORGETOWN
West Virginia is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Georgetown
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of West Virginia's last 6 games on the road
Georgetown is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Georgetown is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing West Virginia

7:00 PM
VMI vs. CANISIUS
No trends available
Canisius is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games
Canisius is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

7:00 PM
WRIGHT STATE vs. EAST CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wright State's last 6 games on the road
Wright State is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of East Carolina's last 8 games at home
East Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. FLORIDA STATE
No trends available
Florida State is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home
Florida State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:05 PM
COLUMBIA vs. VALPARAISO
Columbia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Columbia is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Valparaiso is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Valparaiso's last 14 games

8:15 PM
HIGH POINT vs. MINNESOTA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games at home

8:15 PM
BELMONT vs. WISC-GREEN BAY
Belmont is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Belmont's last 7 games on the road
Wisc-Green Bay is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisc-Green Bay's last 7 games at home

9:00 PM
GEORGIA STATE vs. CLEMSON
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Georgia State's last 9 games on the road
Georgia State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Clemson is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Clemson's last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
INDIANA STATE vs. ARKANSAS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana State's last 6 games on the road
Indiana State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arkansas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas's last 7 games at home

9:00 PM
DAVIDSON vs. MISSOURI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Davidson's last 5 games on the road
Davidson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Missouri is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Missouri is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

10:00 PM
PORTLAND STATE vs. SAN DIEGO
Portland State is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Portland State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games at home

11:00 PM
UTAH vs. ST. MARY'S
Utah is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Mary's last 5 games at home
St. Mary's is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home