College Betting Recap - Week 12
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
The largest underdog to cash: Northwestern (+17, ML +700) at Notre Dame, 43-40 (in OT)
The largest favorite to cash: Western Michigan (-27) vs Eastern Michigan, 51-7
Top 25 Notes
It was a rough day for teams in the Top 10, particularly against the spread. Alabama-Mississippi State faced each other, and Top 10 teams finished 4-3 SU. Worse, only one Top 10 team covered in seven games, with the only cover coming in that head-to-head matchup between the Tide and Bulldogs.
Marshall kept its sheet clean with another impressive victory, topping Rice 44-21. The Thundering Herd is now 10-0 SU, and they have covered eight of their past nine.
Notre Dame slipped up at home against Northwestern by a 43-40 score in overtime, and the Irish have gone from national title contenders to has-beens in a matter of two weeks (and two losses).
In the game of the day, Florida State did their usual disappearing act in the first half, only to storm back in Miami for a second-half comeback and win. The 'Noles weren't covering until the final 3:05 of regulation. The Seminoles are still just 3-7 ATS this season.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
It was a disastrous day in the ACC, and one which could have been even worse had FSU fallen. ... Georgia Tech took advantage of an injury to Clemson QB DeShaun Watson in the first quarter, rambling to a 28-6 win over the wreck that is the Tigers and backup QB Cole Stoudt. The Jackets have erupted for four straight wins and covers since Oct. 18. ... Duke did something they have rarely done over the past two seasons - beat themselves. They blew a fourth-quarter lead and fell 17-16 at home, knocking them out of the driver's seat in the Coastal Division. ... North Carolina State became bowl eligible by throttling Wake Forest 42-13. The Wolfpack have now covered three of the past four, and they're 6-3 ATS over the past nine.
There were just three games in the Big 12, and the underdog covered in two. ... Texas Christian was behind at half at lowly Kansas, and needed second-half heroics to scratch out an uninspiring 34-30 win. Playoff committee is likely NOT impressed. ... Oklahoma was without injured QB Trevor Knight, but they still won 42-30 on the road at Texas Tech. The Sooners are just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS over the past six games. The best trend for Boomer Sooner is the 'over' has cashed in six of their past seven.
It a solid day for the Big Ten, with road teams going 3-2 SU in league games and home teams going 3-2 ATS. ... As mentioned, Northwestern scored their big road win in South Bend, and Penn State stepped out of conference and handled its business against Temple, 30-13. ... Wisconsin covered its game against Nebraska thanks in large part to RB Melvin Gordon, who rambled for an FBS-record 408 rushing yards.
It was a weekend of the dog in the Pac-12. Underdogs went 2-2 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS. Washington nearly pulled the road upset, losing 27-26 at Arizona. ... Meanwhile, Arizona State fumbled away its chances at a spot in the four-team playoff, losing outright at Oregon State, 35-27. The Beavers entered the game 0-4 SU/ATS over the past four. ... Utah scored another impressive win at Stanford, tripping up the Cardinal 20-17 in double-overtime. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their past six games, and 8-2 ATS in their 10 games overall.
It was an upside-down day in the SEC. It all started in the Swamp, as the heat is back on Florida coach Will Muschamp after a brief stay of execution. South Carolina had a feel-good moment, winning 23-20 in OT in the Swamp, cashing as 6.5-point 'dogs. ... Speaking of 'dogs, Mississippi State didn't have much bark early, going down 19-0 at Alabama. Of course, anyone who liked the Bulldogs getting 10 enjoyed the final minute. See bad beats below. ... Georgia roughed up Auburn, who started the season as cover kings, but now cannot even come close. The Tigers are an uncharacteristic 1-4 ATS over the past five, and 2-6 ATS over the past eight.
Mid-Major Report
Not many people figured Memphis would amount to much this season, but the Tigers continue to roll on. They romped 38-7 at Tulane to stay on track for a New Year's Day bowl game. The Tigers are 4-2 SU on the road, and 4-1-1 ATS. ... UCF started the season slow while trying to replace QB Blake Bortles. They'll finally hitting on all cylinders at just the right time. The Knights rubbed out Tulsa 31-7 on Friday, and they're now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over the past seven.
In Conference USA, Marshall keeps mowing 'em down. Rice came in 6-0 SU/ATS over the past six, so the Herd's 41-14 win is that much more impressive. ... Don't look now, but Texas-El Paso is bowl eligible, and they're starting to be a favorite of bettors. Over the past five games, UTEP is 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS. They travel to Rice Friday.
The Mountain West was the upset west Saturday. The only favorite to cover was Air Force, and they needed overtime to shed Nevada, 45-38. Quietly, and I mean VERY quietly, Air Force finds themselves at 8-2 SU. They have won four straight, and the Falcons have covered the past three. ... Hawaii has had trouble on the mainland this season, going 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS in four previous trips. However, they ended all of that misery with a surprising 13-0 win at San Jose State. ... Boise State turned back San Diego State 38-29, but despite a five-game win streak, they have failed to cover in three of the past four. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in the past five for the Broncs.
Appalachian State pulled off an upset as a 15-point underdog, taking down Arkansas State in Jonesboro by a 37-32 score. After starting the season 1-5 SU/ATS, the Mountaineers have rattled off four straight wins and they're 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their past five. ... Troy looked to be dead in the water Oct. 30 in an uninspired 42-10 loss at Georgia Southern. However, the Trojans have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four. Over the past seven, they're 5-2 ATS.
Bad Beats
In that marquee matchup in the SEC, Mississippi State struck with 15 seconds left to pull within five points, covering a 10-point number, and therefore turning Tide bettors' winning tickets into a loss.
Some bettors might have had long faces at the end of the Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe game. Some bettors might have had the spread at 6.5 points, and therefore were perfectly content. However, if you were laying a full seven, the WarHawks struck with 1:47 left in regulation to close a 34-20 lead to just seven, turning a cover into a push.
If you had the 'over' (52.5) in the New Mexico-Utah State, you were left shaking your head. USU lead 21-14 at halftime, and the there are 42 total points midway through the third quarter. Then, the defense kicked in and over the final 22:35 of the game, the teams combined for a total of just seven points and a shocking under.
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
The largest underdog to cash: Northwestern (+17, ML +700) at Notre Dame, 43-40 (in OT)
The largest favorite to cash: Western Michigan (-27) vs Eastern Michigan, 51-7
Top 25 Notes
It was a rough day for teams in the Top 10, particularly against the spread. Alabama-Mississippi State faced each other, and Top 10 teams finished 4-3 SU. Worse, only one Top 10 team covered in seven games, with the only cover coming in that head-to-head matchup between the Tide and Bulldogs.
Marshall kept its sheet clean with another impressive victory, topping Rice 44-21. The Thundering Herd is now 10-0 SU, and they have covered eight of their past nine.
Notre Dame slipped up at home against Northwestern by a 43-40 score in overtime, and the Irish have gone from national title contenders to has-beens in a matter of two weeks (and two losses).
In the game of the day, Florida State did their usual disappearing act in the first half, only to storm back in Miami for a second-half comeback and win. The 'Noles weren't covering until the final 3:05 of regulation. The Seminoles are still just 3-7 ATS this season.
Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)
It was a disastrous day in the ACC, and one which could have been even worse had FSU fallen. ... Georgia Tech took advantage of an injury to Clemson QB DeShaun Watson in the first quarter, rambling to a 28-6 win over the wreck that is the Tigers and backup QB Cole Stoudt. The Jackets have erupted for four straight wins and covers since Oct. 18. ... Duke did something they have rarely done over the past two seasons - beat themselves. They blew a fourth-quarter lead and fell 17-16 at home, knocking them out of the driver's seat in the Coastal Division. ... North Carolina State became bowl eligible by throttling Wake Forest 42-13. The Wolfpack have now covered three of the past four, and they're 6-3 ATS over the past nine.
There were just three games in the Big 12, and the underdog covered in two. ... Texas Christian was behind at half at lowly Kansas, and needed second-half heroics to scratch out an uninspiring 34-30 win. Playoff committee is likely NOT impressed. ... Oklahoma was without injured QB Trevor Knight, but they still won 42-30 on the road at Texas Tech. The Sooners are just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS over the past six games. The best trend for Boomer Sooner is the 'over' has cashed in six of their past seven.
It a solid day for the Big Ten, with road teams going 3-2 SU in league games and home teams going 3-2 ATS. ... As mentioned, Northwestern scored their big road win in South Bend, and Penn State stepped out of conference and handled its business against Temple, 30-13. ... Wisconsin covered its game against Nebraska thanks in large part to RB Melvin Gordon, who rambled for an FBS-record 408 rushing yards.
It was a weekend of the dog in the Pac-12. Underdogs went 2-2 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS. Washington nearly pulled the road upset, losing 27-26 at Arizona. ... Meanwhile, Arizona State fumbled away its chances at a spot in the four-team playoff, losing outright at Oregon State, 35-27. The Beavers entered the game 0-4 SU/ATS over the past four. ... Utah scored another impressive win at Stanford, tripping up the Cardinal 20-17 in double-overtime. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their past six games, and 8-2 ATS in their 10 games overall.
It was an upside-down day in the SEC. It all started in the Swamp, as the heat is back on Florida coach Will Muschamp after a brief stay of execution. South Carolina had a feel-good moment, winning 23-20 in OT in the Swamp, cashing as 6.5-point 'dogs. ... Speaking of 'dogs, Mississippi State didn't have much bark early, going down 19-0 at Alabama. Of course, anyone who liked the Bulldogs getting 10 enjoyed the final minute. See bad beats below. ... Georgia roughed up Auburn, who started the season as cover kings, but now cannot even come close. The Tigers are an uncharacteristic 1-4 ATS over the past five, and 2-6 ATS over the past eight.
Mid-Major Report
Not many people figured Memphis would amount to much this season, but the Tigers continue to roll on. They romped 38-7 at Tulane to stay on track for a New Year's Day bowl game. The Tigers are 4-2 SU on the road, and 4-1-1 ATS. ... UCF started the season slow while trying to replace QB Blake Bortles. They'll finally hitting on all cylinders at just the right time. The Knights rubbed out Tulsa 31-7 on Friday, and they're now 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over the past seven.
In Conference USA, Marshall keeps mowing 'em down. Rice came in 6-0 SU/ATS over the past six, so the Herd's 41-14 win is that much more impressive. ... Don't look now, but Texas-El Paso is bowl eligible, and they're starting to be a favorite of bettors. Over the past five games, UTEP is 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS. They travel to Rice Friday.
The Mountain West was the upset west Saturday. The only favorite to cover was Air Force, and they needed overtime to shed Nevada, 45-38. Quietly, and I mean VERY quietly, Air Force finds themselves at 8-2 SU. They have won four straight, and the Falcons have covered the past three. ... Hawaii has had trouble on the mainland this season, going 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS in four previous trips. However, they ended all of that misery with a surprising 13-0 win at San Jose State. ... Boise State turned back San Diego State 38-29, but despite a five-game win streak, they have failed to cover in three of the past four. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in the past five for the Broncs.
Appalachian State pulled off an upset as a 15-point underdog, taking down Arkansas State in Jonesboro by a 37-32 score. After starting the season 1-5 SU/ATS, the Mountaineers have rattled off four straight wins and they're 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their past five. ... Troy looked to be dead in the water Oct. 30 in an uninspired 42-10 loss at Georgia Southern. However, the Trojans have won back-to-back games for the first time this season, and they're 3-1 ATS over the past four. Over the past seven, they're 5-2 ATS.
Bad Beats
In that marquee matchup in the SEC, Mississippi State struck with 15 seconds left to pull within five points, covering a 10-point number, and therefore turning Tide bettors' winning tickets into a loss.
Some bettors might have had long faces at the end of the Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe game. Some bettors might have had the spread at 6.5 points, and therefore were perfectly content. However, if you were laying a full seven, the WarHawks struck with 1:47 left in regulation to close a 34-20 lead to just seven, turning a cover into a push.
If you had the 'over' (52.5) in the New Mexico-Utah State, you were left shaking your head. USU lead 21-14 at halftime, and the there are 42 total points midway through the third quarter. Then, the defense kicked in and over the final 22:35 of the game, the teams combined for a total of just seven points and a shocking under.
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