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**TheGame** · 10-01-2013, 05:46 AM

College football line watch: Jump on NIU now

Spread to bet now

Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes (+9)

Through the first five weeks of the season, no price in games involving NIU has moved against the Huskies. If anything, numbers have tended to trend slightly in NIU’s direction, including last week at Purdue when the Huskies were modestly bet up from 3 to 4 at most Las Vegas wagering outlets.

Although there was not much reaction to the earliest posted -9 for the Huskies this Saturday at Kent State, NIU’s support base has acted more like a growing groundswell each week. Perhaps because it mostly flies under the national radar in the MAC, price adjustments in Huskies games have tended to move slowly and inexorably, rather than in the quick bursts we see associated with many other well-supported “public” sides.

After QB Jordan Lynch and the explosive offense triggered last week’s 55-24 demolition of Big Ten rep Purdue, however, expect appetite for NIU to appear a bit more quickly in the marketplace, likely pushing this price up to the next key number at 10 against the Golden Flashes.

Whether 10 acts as a resistance point or not remains to be seen.

At least by jumping on the Huskies ASAP, those NIU backers are not going to have to worry about laying a double-digit price.

This number is very unlikely to drop, so Huskies supporters might as well get their positions now while the price remains in single digits.

Spread to wait on

Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers (+3.5)

After home losses to Navy and Missouri in September, Indiana backers are laying low at the moment. So low, in fact, that they offered very little resistance when the price for this Saturday’s game versus Penn State was bet up from an opening 2.5 and right through a key number resistance point at 3 in early wagering action.

As of Monday afternoon, most Las Vegas wagering outlets were posting the Hoosiers at +3.5 or 4 for Saturday’s Big Ten clash at Bloomington.

We suspect that there is more run left in this price move toward the Nittany Lions, who have mostly offered good spread value for second-year coach Bill O’Brien; Penn State is now 11-5 its last 16 on the board.

Moreover, the marketplace will also begin to digest some of the hard-to-believe series trends that are so lopsided in the direction of the Nittany Lions, who have not lost straight up to the Hoosiers since entering the Big Ten in 1993 and have a spotless 16-0 straight up record all-time versus IU.

Don’t be surprised for this number to eventually test the next key numbers up the scale, perhaps all of the way up to the “big” 7, as buy pressure for Penn State doesn’t figure to abate anytime soon.

Later in the week, IU likely attracts some investors, but we advise Hoosier backers to sit tight for a few days to see how high this number inflates. No surprise if the Nittany Lions will be forced to lay near a full TD at sometime before kickoff, at which time we expect some IU money to materialize at the Nevada sports books.

Total to watch

West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears

Like those who like to see how many hot dogs Joey Chestnut can devour at the annual Nathan’s Contest each 4th of July at Coney Island, there is a similar curiosity in the wagering marketplace regarding the most-extreme “totals” each week. And along with Oregon, no team generates that sort of interest like high-octane Baylor, which hosts West Virginia on Saturday.

“Totals” devotees certainly recall the Bears-Mountaineers shootout last season in Morgantown, when Geno Smith tossed a whopping 8 TD passes for WVU in its wild 70-63 win.

Geno has graduated to the NFL, and the Mounties aren’t quite spinning the scoreboards as they were the past couple of seasons, but Baylor has definitely picked up the slack as it scores better than point-per-minute in the early going this season for HC Art Briles.

Baylor’s early schedule has been mostly flown under the national radar against the likes of Wofford, Buffalo and UL-Monroe, so this is the first time we’ll get to see how the marketplace reacts to a “total” on a featured Bears game. And after scoring 69, 70, and 70 in the first three, we anticipate some “over” pressure no matter where oddsmakers post the “total” for Saturday’s game vs. WVU.

With thin markets in earlier games, “totals” on Bear games to date still moved upward 2-3 points in the first three contests. Oddsmakers are also not expected to fool around any longer with “totals” involving teams like Baylor or Oregon; the books had no hesitation posting the Ducks’ “total” vs. Cal in the low 80s last week, though the knowledge of upcoming monsoon-like conditions in Eugene prevented excessive buy pressure on the “over” for Ducks-Bears.

We’re very curious to see how the marketplace reacts to the next “total” involving Baylor...especially if weather forecasts are for a fast track in Waco.

**TheGame** · 10-02-2013, 06:28 AM

College Football Odds: Week 6 Opening Line Report

In one of the most entertaining games of the season thus far, the Georgia Bulldogs defeated the LSU Tigers 44-41 in a matchup of two SEC heavyweights.

The Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) have beaten some big names to start the season with their only blemish coming courtesy of the Clemson Tigers in the opening game of the campaign.

Coming off that massive win against LSU, the Bulldogs now must travel to Tennessee to face the Volunteers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).

Georgia has won straight up in three consecutive meetings with the Volunteers and both won and covered as 2.5-point faves in Knoxville back in 2011; the last meeting at Tennessee.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Bulldogs -14 after he and his team were all between 13 and 17.

"Offshores have lower and we could've gone that way with Georgia RB (Todd) Gurly questionable but with him in the lineup, I like where we're at."

Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-17)

The Maryland Terrapins (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) have satisfied faithful backers so far during an unblemished start to the season. Maryland is one of four programs in the country that is 4-0 ATS and one of just eight squads without an ATS loss. But Korner feels they'll have their hands full with quarterback Jameis Winston and the Seminoles (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).

"The range went from -14 to -21 and we decided in the middle with FSU -17," Korner told Covers. "Maryland has shown well of late and are competitive here. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line drop a little. But FSU's overall team strength in so many areas will show through here."

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4)

Played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas

The Irish (3-2, 0-4-1) are coming off a poor performance at home against the Oklahoma Sooners which saw them on the wrong end of a 35-21 scoreline. The Irish have been fairly abysmal both on the field and against the spread. They are one of just eight teams that have yet to cover a spread this season.

"This is in a neutral field and to tell you the truth, we don't like Notre Dame at all," said Korner. "We sent out ASU -4 but a gun to our heads we could easily go higher. Notre Dame can't stop anyone and they're facing a quality team here."

Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats (+6)

The Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are coming off a massive 31-24 win against Wisconsin to get their Big 10 season off to a great start. It won't get easier for them as they (along with College Gameday) go to Evanston, Illinois to face the Northwestern Wildcats (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS), who are off to a great start themselves.

"We were all around the -6 number. There wasn't much to discuss here. Big Ten clash with two good teams. I don't see this number running in either direction by kick-off."

**TheGame** · 10-02-2013, 06:29 AM

Exposing the Top 25

Where the polls went wrong
by Jesse Schule

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team: Oklahoma Sooners (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)

The Irish hadn't lost at South Bend since October of 2011, but it was bound to happen "Sooner" or later. The Sooners are still perfect after knocking off the Irish by a score of 35-21.

Blake Bell had a big game throwing for 232 yards and two scores and running for 59 more. Oklahoma's defense ranks sixth in the nation, allowing an average of just 12 points per game. When you look at its schedule, it would appear that the Sooners have a chance at running the table.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team: Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Bulldogs may be undefeated, but they haven't yet covered the spread, going 0-4 as favorites. Two of their wins have come by a margin of a single point and their defense has really struggled. Fresno State has allowed an average of over 38 points per game, ranking 114th in the nation.

The Bulldogs have a pretty soft schedule, so it's likely they could continue to pile up the wins. But as far as Top 25 teams go, I think they are the weakest of the bunch.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked: Wisconsin Badgers (3-2 SU, 4-0-1 ATS)

The Badgers got a raw deal in Arizona a few weeks ago, losing as time expired even though they should have had an attempt at a game-winning field goal. Then last week they lost 31-24 on the road in Ohio.

The good news for Wisconsin is that it only has one more ranked opponent on the schedule, when the Badgers host Northwestern in their next game. After that they play their final six games against unranked teams.

**TheGame** · 10-02-2013, 11:06 AM

Injuries to Watch – Week 6
By Brian Edwards

Texas quarterback David Ash has been ruled ‘out’ of Thursday’s game at IowaState due to lingering concussion symptoms. Ash sustained his first concussion in a 40-21 loss at BYU in Week 2. After sitting out a loss to Ole Miss, he returned to start in a 31-21 win over Kansas St. However, Ash suffered a second head injury against the Wildcats and didn’t return in the second half. This means Case McCoy will get the starting nod for the second time this season. Ash has seven touchdown passes compared to two interceptions this season, while McCoy has one TD pass and hasn’t been intercepted. Also, Texas’s best wide receiver, Mike Davis, is ‘questionable’ against the Cylcones. Davis sprained his ankle in the loss to Ole Miss and didn’t play against Kansas St. In the first three games, Davis had 20 receptions for 223 yards and four TDs.

Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen returned to the lineup in last week’s 45-33 loss to Texas A&M. Allen threw for 282 yards and three TDs against the Aggies, but he was picked off twice. The Razorbacks took the cash as 13.5-point home underdogs. Allen missed a 28-24 loss at Rutgers the previous week due to a bruised shoulder. He was considered ‘doubtful’ when I filed last week’s injury blog early Thursday, only to be upgraded to ‘probable’ Friday night. As always, make sure to check twitter (search the player in question) on Friday and/or Saturday for late-breaking injury information.

Despite missing the last three games after leaving the season opener vs. Oklahoma State with a concussion, Mississippi St. senior QB Tyler Russell is expected to start Saturday night vs. LSU. The only reason this is a bit of a surprise is because back-up Dak Prescott has been so effective. Prescott has completed 55.3 percent of his throws for 709 yards with a 3/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has done his best work with his legs, rushing for a team-high 215 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Russell is a three-year starter who led the Bulldogs to eight wins last season with a 24/8 TD-INT ratio. Dan Mullen hasn’t been afraid to use two QBs in the past and I suspect we’ll see both Russell and Prescott against the Tigers, who are favored by 9.5 points.

Georgia sophomore RB Todd Gurley didn’t practice Monday and Tuesday because of a sprained ankle. Gurley sustained the injury in the first half of a 44-41 win over LSU and did not return. As of Wednesday, he was listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s game at Tennessee. Gurley has rushed for 450 yards and five scores, averaging 6.3 YPC. If Gurley can’t go, I’m not sure bettors need to downgrade UGA much even though Gurley might be en route to earning first-team All-American honors. That’s because fellow sophomore Keith Marshall is a beast who averaged 6.5 YPC in 2012.

Northwestern star RB and special-teams dynamo Venric Mark is ‘probable’ vs. Ohio St. Mark has missed three consecutive games with a sprained ankle suffered in a 44-30 season-opening win at California. The speedster was a second-team All Big Ten selection as a RB in 2012 and earned first-team All-American honors on special teams after returning three punts for TDs.

Oregon RB De’Anthony Thomas is ‘doubtful’ at Colorado due to a sprained ankle. Even if Thomas gets better over the next few days, coach Mark Helfrich won’t play his speedster because he wants him ready for next week’s trip to Washington.

Vanderbilt might be without its best pass rusher Saturday vs. Missouri. Senior DE Walker May is ‘questionable’ after suffering a leg injury in a win over UAB.

Stanford All-American OG David Yankey returned to the team on Monday. Yankey missed last week’s win at Washington St. to be with his family following the death of his father.

South Carolina will be without three key offensive players Saturday vs. Kentucky. QB Connor Shaw is out 2-3 weeks with a shoulder sprain, while WR Shaq Roland will miss a second (and final) game due to a suspension. Also, back-up RB Brandon Wilds is out 3-4 weeks with a sprained elbow.

BYU’s Cody Hoffman was suspended for last week’s win over Middle Tennessee. Hoffman also missed a season-opening loss at Virginia with a hamstring injury. He has only played two games, hauling in 10 receptions for 171 yards, but the senior WR isn’t nearly on pace to catch 100 balls like he did last year.

Kent St. star RB Dri Archer was back in the lineup for last week’s 32-14 win at Western Michigan. Archer had missed three straight games with an ankle sprained suffered in the season opener. Without Archer, the Golden Flashes scored only 11.7 points per game. He had an instant impact with 73 rushing yards on just six carries. Archer also produced four receptions for 48 yards and one TD. Look for him to get a lot more touches this weekend vs. No. Illinois.

Miami might get WR Rashawn Scott (shoulder) back for Saturday’s home game vs. Ga. Tech. Scott hasn’t played since a Week 2 win over Florida. He is ‘questionable.’ UM quarterback Stephen Morris (ankle) and RB Duke Johnson (head) are both listed as ‘probable’ vs. the Yellow Jackets.

Ga. Tech had already lost starting safety Isaiah Johnson to a season-ending injury. The Jackets’ secondary took another hit in the loss to Va. Tech when their other starting safety Jamal Golden went down with a shoulder injury. Golden will have season-ending surgery later this week.

San Diego St. lost its best defensive player when MLB Jake Fely broke his foot in a 26-16 win at New Mexico St. Fely was scheduled to have season-ending surgery on Wednesday.

Gamblers should downgrade Louisiana-Monroe in their power rankings due to the loss of QB Kolton Browning, who was the Sun Belt’s Offensive Player of the Year last season. Browning will miss the rest of 2013 with a torn quad muscle. He finishes his career as ULM’s all-time leading passer with 9,051 yards.

Ohio LB Keith Moore sprained his ankle on the first defensive series of the season in a loss at Louisville. He will return to the field for the first time since then Saturday at Akron. Moore was the Bobcats’ leading tackler in 2012 when he made 98 stops and recorded two sacks and a pair of interceptions.

**TheGame** · 10-02-2013, 11:06 AM

College Football Betting Preview: Rutgers at SMU
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com

Rutgers at SMU
Saturday, 9 am PT
CRIS Opener: Rutgers -3
CRIS Current: Rutgers -6.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Rutgers -5.5
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: Rutgers

Each season I typically stumble upon two or three teams that I continually "bet on" or "bet against" regardless of matchup, situation, or number. This may last three of four weeks or the entire season depending on a number of factors – most notably whether or not I am winning. If you've followed these pages we've cashed tickets against the SMU Mustangs each of the last two weeks. There is simply not a lot of like about this squad and I once again see justification in betting against them this week.

This isn't the best of spots for Rutgers but it also isn't the worst. The Scarlet Knights come in off a bye week which should have left plenty of prep time for their AAC opener as well as next Thursday's showdown at Louisville. This is a veteran squad that has shown the ability to go out on the road and take care of business. Last season the Scarlet Knights were 5-1 in true road games including wins at Cincinnati and Arkansas. Back in Week 1 we saw them take a quality Fresno State team to overtime on the highway. Needless to say, they won't be intimidated traveling to a venue that will be lucky to feature 20,000 fans.

From a fundamental standpoint, like TCU, Rutgers has the ability to make SMU one dimensional. The Horned Frogs posted seven sacks, force five turnovers, and held the Mustangs to 16 yards rushing in last week's 48-17 win. The Scarlet Knights already have 11 sacks and rank 4th nationally in rush defense at 69.75 ypg.

Rutgers has some injury concerns and will most notably be without the services of running back Paul James (leg) who ranks fourth nationally in yards per game. However, note that James wasn't even on the two-deep entering the season so there is obviously comparable talent to fill his spot.

There are many things wrong with SMU but the most glaring is the lack of consistency at the quarterback position. Let's not forget that Garrett Gilbert played in C-USA last season – a league littered with soft defenses and he finished with a 15-15 TD-to-INT ratio and the league’s worst QB rating. And this season we've already seen multiple examples of what happens when he faces above average stop units – 108.7 QB Rating, 3 TDs, 5 INTs vs. Texas Tech, TCU, and Texas A&M. Not all the blame should be placed on Gilbert but in a competitively lined game if SMU is going to cover the number, he'll need to make key plays and avoid mistakes – two things he's unfortunately shown little no ability to do against quality competition.

Road favorite is not the ideal role for Rutgers but their profile (veteran club, ability to win on the road, stout defense, ball control offense) suggests they’ll have no trouble making like uncomfortable for SMU. The line looks headed to -7 so let's jump in at keep the SMU fade going at least one more week.

**TheGame** · 10-02-2013, 11:06 AM

Games to Watch - Week 6
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Arkansas at Florida

Most books opened Florida (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) as a 10.5-point favorite. The Gators have won their first two SEC games over Tennessee and Kentucky. They more than doubled UK’s yardage output (402-173) in a 24-7 win in Lexington as 11-point favorites. UF got a career-high 176 rushing yards from Matt Jones, who scored on a two-yard run and also had three catches for 20 yards. In his first career start, Tyler Murphy completed 15-of-18 passes for 156 yards and one TD. He also produced 36 rushing yards and one score on seven totes. UF leads the SEC and is eighth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 12.8 points per game. The Gators are second in the country in total defense, limiting foes to 202.5 yards per contest. Arkansas (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) hung tough against Texas A&M before dropping a 45-33 decision. The Razorbacks got the money as 13.5-point underdogs. QB Brandon Allen, who had missed a 28-24 loss at Rutgers the previous week due to a shoulder injury, wasn’t expected to face the Aggies until his status was upgraded to ‘probable’ late Friday. Allen threw for 282 yards and three touchdowns, but he was intercepted twice. Alex Collins rushed for 116 yards and one TD on 14 carries. For the season, Allen has an 8/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in four games. Collins, a freshman RB out of Miami, leads the SEC in rushing with 597 yards. He has run for three TDs and is averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Arky senior DE Chris Smith leads the SEC in sacks with six. Since joining the SEC in 1992, the Hogs have lost all eight head-to-head meetings against UF. ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Maryland at Florida State

As of early Monday afternoon, most spots had FSU (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) favored by 15. The Seminoles failed to cover the number for the first time in Saturday’s 48-34 win at Boston College as 23.5-point road favorites. BC raced out to a 17-3 lead before Jameis Winston threw three second-quarter TD passes, including a 55-yard bomb to Kenny Shaw on the final play of the first half. Winston threw for 330 yards and four TDs against the Eagles, while also rushing for a team-high 67 yards. A redshirt freshman, ‘Famous’ has a 12/2 TD-INT ratio and two rushing TDs for the year. Maryland (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) has had two weeks to prep for FSU following its 37-0 win over West Va. The Terrapins are also getting stellar QB play from C.J. Brown, who has connected on 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,043 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. Brown has rushed for 283 yards and five TDs, averaging 6.3 YPC. Brown has one of the country’s best WRs in Stefon Diggs, who has 18 catches for 400 yards and three TDs. Maryland is 5-5 ATS as a road underdog during Randy Edsall’s tenure, while the ‘Nolews are 13-8 ATS as a home favorite on Jimbo Fisher’s watch. FSU has won six in a row over Maryland, going 4-2 ATS. The ‘over’ is a perfect 4-0 for FSU, 2-2 for Maryland. Kickoff is slated for noon Eastern on ESPN.

Ole Miss at Auburn

As of early Monday afternoon, most books had Ole Miss (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) installed as a three-point road ‘chalk.’ The Rebels are coming off a 25-0 loss at Alabama as 14.5-point underdogs. They kept ‘Bama out of the end zone in the first half, trailing just 9-0 at intermission. But UM couldn’t get anything going offensively and were held to merely 205 yards of total offense. Since Hugh Freeze took over, Ole Miss still maintains a 7-2 spread record in nine games played away from Oxford (8 road, 1 neutral). Auburn (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) had an open date after suffering its first loss at LSU by a 35-21 count. Gus Malzahn’s team is led by RB Tre Mason, who has rushed for 338 yards and four TDs. AU has won all three of its home games this year, going 1-2 ATS. The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for AU, 3-0 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 2-1 in the Rebels’ three road assignments this season. The ‘over’ has hit in four straight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West adversaries. ESPNU will provide television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Washington at Stanford

As of early Monday afternoon, most spots had Stanford (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Cardinal dealt out another woodshed beating Saturday in Seattle, where it pounded Washington St. 55-17 as 9.5-point favorite. Kevin Hogan led the way by throwing for 286 yards and three TDs. Hogan has a 10/3 TD-INT ratio. Stanford All-American OG David Yankey didn’t make the trip to Seattle due to a personal matter. His status for the Huskies remains in question. The Cardinal owns a 7-8 spread record as a home favorite under David Shaw. Washington (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) cruised to a 31-13 win over Arizona as an 8.5-point home favorite. Bishop Sankey stole the show with 161 rushing yards and one TD on a career-high 40 carries. Keith Price threw a pair of TD passes for the Huskies. Price has a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. UW has a 7-11 ATS mark in 18 games as a road underdog during Steve Sarkisian’s five-year tenure. When these teams met last year, Washington captured a 17-13 win as a 6.5-point home underdog. Sankey was the catalyst with 144 rushing yards and one TD. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games for Stanford. The ‘under’ is 3-1 for UW, 1-0 in its lone road game. ESPN will have the telecast at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.

Michigan State at Iowa

As of early Monday afternoon, most betting shops had Iowa (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) tabbed as a 1.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes have won four consecutive games since dropping a 30-27 heartbreaker to No. Illinois in their season opener. They started Big Ten play this past Saturday with a 23-7 win at Minnesota as 2.5-point ‘chalk.’ Kirk Ferentz’s squad generated 464 yards of total offense and limited to Gophers to just 165 yards. Mark Weisman ran for a game-high 147 yards. Iowa is sixth in the nation in total defense in seventh in stopping the run. Michigan State (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare for Iowa following a 17-13 loss at Notre Dame. Like Va. Tech and Florida, the Spartans have an elite defense but a shaky offense. Mark Dantonio’s team is No. 1 in the country in total defense, allowing only 187.8 yards per game. If Sparty remains a road ‘dog in this spot, it is 8-6-1 ATS in such situations under Dantonio. Iowa is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings against Michigan St. The ‘over’ is 4-1 for the Hawks, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 for Michigan St. ESPN2 will have television coverage at noon Eastern.

**TheGame** · 10-02-2013, 11:58 AM

Match-up against Wolf Pack gives Aztecs clear edge
October 01, 2013 3:05 AM by Doc's Sports

NCAA Football Picks from Docs For the second week in a row Doc’s Sports came out a winner in our weekly picks for Gaming Today with a 2-1 record in this past Saturday’s games. That brought the season total to 10-4-1.

Doc’s has remained the recognized leader in the sports selection industry for over 42 years for our ability to provide a steady stream of winners to our loyal customers for all the major sports.

Here are this week’s selections:

Take SAN DIEGO ST. -4½ (over Nevada): We decided to go against San Diego State last week and it paid off, but in this Friday’s matchup against the Wolf Pack it has a clear edge at home while giving-up just 4½ points.

The Aztecs have a respectable passing game behind quarterback Quinn Kaehler, who has thrown for 696 yards and three touchdowns while completing 63.2 percent of his attempts. Donnel Pumphrey has established himself as a legitimate threat running the ball after racking-up 167 yards on the ground last week.

Nevada is 3-2 straight-up on the year but has failed to cover in its last two games as an underdog. The Wolf Pack is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games and 1-6 in their last seven on the road. They are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in the last three meetings against the Aztecs and we remain confident that this losing streak will reach four on Friday night.

Take IOWA -1½ (over Michigan State): The Hawkeyes come into this Big Ten Legends Division clash at 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS including a 23-7 romp over Minnesota as 2.5-point favorites on the road in their conference opener. Iowa is averaging 32.8 points a game while allowing just 15 points a game on defense. Mark Weisman leads a rushing attack that is averaging 244.4 yards a game.

Michigan State is coming off a tough 17-13 loss to Notre Dame on Sept. 21 as a four-point road underdog to fall to 3-1 SU and 1-2-1 ATS. The Spartans are 2-5 SU in their last seven games against Iowa and just 1-6 ATS. They have also lost six of their last seven road games against the Hawkeyes SU and they are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings on the road. All this points to another tough loss on the road in a game that Michigan State should be getting more than just 1½.

Take AKRON +6½ (over Ohio U): Akron jumped out to a 14-3 lead last week in the first quarter, but got away from its game plan in the 17-point loss to a much better team. While we went against the Zips in that game, we see head coach Terry Bowden making the necessary adjustments to keep his team in this week’s game for all four quarters as an underdog, just like it did against Michigan in Week 3.

Ohio is 3-1 both SU and ATS, but this will be its first real test as it opens up play in the MAC. The Bobcats are 2-5 SU in their last seven road games against Akron and 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games overall. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last nine meetings between the two. Look for another hard fought, low scoring battle this time around as well.

**TheGame** · 10-03-2013, 06:34 AM

Thursday's NCAAF Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones (+8, 56.5)

A win over Kansas State quieted the critics briefly, but Texas still has some work to do to get back national attention. The Longhorns look to put together back-to-back wins for the first time this season when they visit Iowa State on Thursday. Texas coach Mack Brown is under fire to put a championship-caliber team back on the field, and even school legend Earl Campbell recently called for his firing.

“Nobody likes to get fired or leave a job, but things happen,” Campbell told KRIV-TV in Houston. “I’d go on record and say yes, I think it’s time.” Brown is under contract until 2020 with one of the largest annual salaries in the NCAA but is just 24-18 since a loss to Alabama in the 2009 National Championship game. The Cyclones don’t have quite the storied history of the Longhorns but are always a pesky opponent for the Big 12’s top tier and are coming off an impressive win over Tulsa.

LINE: Texas opened at -9 and has moved to -7.5. Total moved from 56 to 56.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, with 73 percent chance of thunder showers, winds blowing S at 3 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 35-17 in Cyclones' last 52 games overall.

Western Kentucky Hilltopppers at UL Monroe Warhawks (+7, 48.5)

The Warhawks will be without starting QB Kolton Browning Thursday. He is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a quad injury. Browning, who has passed for 967 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions, will be replaced with backup sophomore Brayle Brown, who is making his first start. UL Monroe is 2-3 on the year, having lost two straight and allowing 101 total points in defeats to Baylor and Tulane.

Western Kentucky comes into Thursday riding back-to-back wins over FCS Morgan State and Navy, covering the spread in both games. Hilltoppers RB Antonio Andrews has been a dominant force on offense with 727 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. WKU will be out for revenge after losing to ULM in overtime during last year’s homecoming.

LINE: WKU opened as a 4.5-point favorite and was bet up to -7. Total steady at 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 80s, 20 percent chance of thunder showers with winds blowing SE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes (+5.5, 60.5)

After winning its first three games in convincing fashion, UCLA begins Pac-12 play on Saturday at Utah, where the 13th-ranked Bruins have been outscored 75-12 in their last two visits. The Utes have the personnel to keep pace with a UCLA offense averaging 52.7 points, but Utah's defense remains a question mark. Both teams are coming off a bye week, and UCLA should be particularly well-rested after routing New Mexico State 59-13 on Sept. 21.

Utah opened the last two seasons with four straight conference losses before dropping this year's opener 51-48 in overtime to Oregon State on Sept. 14. The Utes followed the close loss with an impressive 20-13 win at BYU on Sept. 21, when sophomore quarterback Travis Wilson continued his strong play with 273 passing yards and two touchdowns. Wilson needs a repeat performance against UCLA, which is seeking its first 4-0 start since 2005 after winning its first three games by a total of 93 points.

LINE: UCLA opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to -5.5. Total moved from 61.5 to 60.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 40s with 71 percent chance of snow and winds blowing NNW at 13 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bruins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.
* Over is 8-2 in Bruins' last 10 games overall.

**TheGame** · 10-03-2013, 06:35 AM

Texas at Iowa State
October 2, 2013
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

This week's Thursday night ESPN game features a Texas program that has come under great scrutiny this season as the Longhorns look to put an ugly non-conference start behind them and move to 2-0 in Big XII play. Iowa State has also had a tough start to the season opening up 0-2, but the Cyclones delivered a nice win in primetime last week and have been a known upset maker in recent years. Here is a look at both teams and the Thursday night matchup.

Match-up: Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa (grass)
Date: Thursday, October 3, 2013
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Texas -8, Over/Under 56½
Last Meeting: 2012 at Texas, Texas (-10) 33-7

Both Iowa State and Texas already have two losses this season, but most season goals are still intact for both teams as Big XII play starts. Texas already has a conference win after defeating Kansas State two weeks ago, but it has been a tough start to the season for a team that most expected to contend for a Big XII championship or even rise into the national title conversation. The Big XII appears to be wide open with last year's champion Kansas State and two of the favorites Oklahoma State and TCU all tied at the bottom of the conference at 0-1. Most feel that Mack Brown's job is in serious jeopardy with the tough start, but a strong conference season could change that picture. While Brown could probably lose his job with a loss this week, next week's game is the one that could buy him more time with a big win.

Playing in back-to-back bowl games the last two years has been solid progress for Iowa State and Paul Rhoads owns a 25-29 career record in Ames, pretty impressive considering he inherited a team that went 5-19 in two years under Gene Chizik. The Cyclones are in danger of sliding this season as they will need a winning conference campaign to return to the postseason after going 1-2 non-conference play, losing twice in-state with an opening defeat against FCS Northern Iowa and then losing to rival Iowa with both defeats coming at home. The Cyclones did win as a road underdog last Thursday at Tulsa, avenging their Liberty Bowl loss from last season.

Texas featured some of the best defensive numbers in the nation for much of the late 2000s, allowing less than 19 points per game in three of the four seasons from 2006 to 2009. The 2009 squad that lost to Alabama in the BCS Championship game allowed less than 17 points per game and just over 250 yards per game. The yardage numbers were still very strong in 2010 and 2011 despite the team posting mediocre records those seasons, but last year Texas allowed almost 30 points per game and over 400 yards per game, particularly struggling against the run. With nine returning starters from a highly talented pool of players most expected great improvement this season, especially with signs of progress late last season but Texas is currently 109th in the nation in yards per game allowed, surrendering 466 yards per game. The Longhorns do allow just 5.8 yards per play on defense, not a great figure by any means, but closer to average than the total numbers suggest.

In a vacuum, losing to BYU and Mississippi would not be overly damaging as both project to be quality teams this season, but Texas lost in embarrassing fashion. BYU had 550 rushing yards against Texas as quarterback Taysom Hill had a huge game and Texas was unable to make any sort of adjustment to slow him down in the 40-21 loss. After falling behind 14-0 against Ole Miss, a team Texas beat by 35 last season, the Longhorns did rally to lead at halftime, but they did not score again and Mississippi eventually left with a three-touchdown edge in Austin. Losing badly to what most felt was a middle-of-the-pack SEC team did not sit well given the SEC's growing dominance in the region with Texas A&M's recent success. The win over Kansas State was certainly necessary as is this week's tricky road test, but a win next week in Dallas against Oklahoma would change the mind of a lot of folks who have turned on Brown and the program.

Iowa State has not been consistent week-to-week in the Rhoads era, but they have had several notable upsets. The Cyclones won at Nebraska is 2009 as a 20-point underdog and they won at Texas in 2010 as a 20½-point underdog. In 2011, Iowa State changed the landscape of the bowl season dramatically as they stunned then #2 Oklahoma State late in the year as a nearly four-touchdown home underdog. That upset set up the controversial rematch between LSU and Alabama as the Tide would not have had a shot if Oklahoma State remained undefeated. In four-plus seasons, Rhoads has led Iowa State to seven S/U upset wins as an underdog of seven points or more and the Cyclones are 13-10 ATS in those games.

The projections were dire for this year's Iowa State team with many expecting the opener against FCS Northern Iowa to be a challenge, as that is one of the top programs in the lower division. Iowa State had defeated Iowa two years in a row and while this year's game was at home, it was definitely viewed as a potential loss. Playing at Tulsa has been a big challenge for most visiting teams in recent years as Iowa State played well last week to get into the win column, but the rest of the results for Tulsa this season indicate that the win was not all that impressive and four turnovers aided the cause for the Cyclones. Iowa State also has a brutal conference schedule with five of the nine games on the road and Iowa State does not have a bye week the rest of the season. With the exception of the home date with Kansas, Iowa State will almost certainly be an underdog in every other game and this week's spread may actually be one of the lowest of the remainder of the season.

Injuries have not helped the cause for either team in the first month of the season. Texas quarterback David Ash opened the season on the Heisman short list, but he did not even play in the loss to Ole Miss after suffering a concussion against BYU and he left the last game against Kansas State with a head injury as well. His numbers have not been great with just 56 percent completions in the past two games, excluding the opener against lowly New Mexico State. Case McCoy has played reasonably well in relief for Texas, but he is not the same rushing threat that Ash is. Ash is still a question mark to play this week, but running back Daje Johnson is expected to return after missing the last two games with an ankle injury.

For Iowa State, sophomore quarterback Sam Richardson has not missed time, but he has been playing with an ankle injury since the opening week. Richardson rushed for over 200 yards in limited action last season and for over 70 yards in the opener, but he clearly has not been 100 percent since. The Cyclones have had to attack more consistently through the air as Richardson has just 37 rushing yards the last two games but 80 passing attempts. He has thrown three interceptions and has been sacked 10 times in three games so his chances to heal may be limited without another bye week the rest of the year and the Cyclones will likely be at a greater risk for turnovers with the changed role.

This could prove to be a season-defining game for both teams. A loss would certainly send Texas closer to the path that USC took last week in making a coaching change, although with a long-time coach like Brown, a mid-season change is highly unlikely. A win could help build momentum towards next week's huge Red River Rivalry game and build confidence of a team that has been torn apart in the media in the first month of the season. For Iowa State, the bowl hopes look slim, but this is a game they likely need in order to have a shot at the postseason as the road schedule is very daunting. Even if it proves to be a losing season for the Cyclones with the tough slate, a win over Texas on national television would be a satisfying highlight.

Last Meeting: Texas won hosting Iowa State last season as they climbed back into the national rankings prior to the meeting with three consecutive wins. David Ash had a great game as Texas doubled the total yardage of Iowa State in a 33-7 win. After no scoring in the first 11 minutes of the game, Texas scored twice in the span of just over a minute with a one-play scoring drive accounting for the second score and they never looked back. Iowa State would win at Kansas the next week to clinch bowl eligibility with Sam Richardson making an impressive debut as then senior Steele Jantz played the whole game at quarterback for the Cyclones last season.

Series History: Texas is 8-1 S/U and 5-4 ATS since 1998 in this series with the lone loss coming in 2010 at home. Iowa State has been held below 20 points in six of the last seven meetings and the last meeting in Ames was a 37-14 win for Texas as a nine-point favorite early in the 2011 season.

Line Movement: After a delayed opening with Ash's status in limbo, the spread opened at -9 and has fallen to -8. The total has risen from 55 to 56½.

Texas Historical Trends: Since 2000, Texas is 28-22 ATS as a road favorite, including going 11-5 ATS since 2008. Texas has covered in five of the last seven games as a road favorite of less than 10 points, but the Longhorns are just 8-12 ATS in that role since 1997. Since 2000, Texas is 50-10 S/U in road games while going 35-25 ATS, but they have lost badly in the last two road games, losing this year at BYU and to close the regular season last year at Kansas State.

Iowa State Historical Trends: While Iowa State has had some notable upsets in recent years, they have actually not fared well in the home underdog role, going just 46-59-2 ATS since 1980 and just 6-9-1 ATS since 2009 when Rhoads took over. Iowa State has not won as a home underdog since the opening game of last season hosting Tulsa, as the Cyclones are 0-5 S/U and 0-4-1 ATS in the last five attempts, including losing hosting Iowa earlier this season. When the line climbs over seven, Iowa State has been profitable going 30-21 ATS since 2004 when dogged by seven or more points, covering in six of the last nine but none of the last three. Iowa State has not been this big of an underdog since these teams played last season.

There are two additional Thursday night games this week:

Western Kentucky (-7) at Louisiana-Monroe: The Warhawks were one of the great stories early last season with the upset over Arkansas and then near upsets over Auburn and Baylor. That success was led by quarterback Kolton Browning, who unfortunately likely saw his career end last week with a leg injury. Louisiana-Monroe has a veteran team that already has defeated Wake Forest this season, but this could be a challenging Sun Belt opener given the personnel changes. Western Kentucky has wins over Kentucky and Navy, but also a loss to South Alabama this season and the Hilltoppers look like a threat in the Sun Belt with a strong running game and the program growing under Bobby Petrino. Last season, these teams played a wild 43-42 overtime game with Louisiana-Monroe successfully going for two and the win in the first overtime. Western Kentucky is on an 18-3 ATS run in road games while UL-Monroe is just 18-24-1 ATS at home since 2003.

UCLA (-6) at Utah: The Pac-12 South owns a combined conference record of 1-6 with the lone win coming within the division, as the balance of power still seems to remain in the North. UCLA is the only team in the division without a conference loss already this season, but they also do not have a win as they are the last team to open Pac-12 play. Utah lost its opening conference game at home in a wild game with Oregon State, but the Utes have solid non-conference wins over Utah State and BYU and the team looks much stronger than last year's disappointing 5-7 team. UCLA has arguably the toughest Pac-12 schedule as they play both Oregon and Stanford on the road, which precluded many from projecting the Bruins as the champion in the division. UCLA does have a great non-conference win over Nebraska already under its belt and the offense has posted huge numbers so far this season. UCLA is just 24-36 ATS as a road favorite since 1988 while Utah does not lose often at home, going 34-10 S/U and 24-18-1 ATS since 2006.

**TheGame** · 10-04-2013, 05:35 AM

Inside the stats: BU, KU and Memphis on bye week trend
By MARC LAWRENCE

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings…

Pitch forked

Heading into last week’s Arizona State-USC showdown, both the Sun Devils and the Trojans had held every opponent to a season-low yardage mark.

When the final dust settled, each team surprisingly managed to gain season-high yards in the contest.

It not only sent USC packing but ASU also stuck the final fork in Lane Kiffin’s career with the Trojans.

Thus, heading into the month of October, six college football teams remain that have held every opponent to a season-low yardage mark. They include: Arizona, Florida, Michigan State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Washington.

On the flip, New Mexico State has allowed season-high yards in every game.

It should also be noted that Fresno State has surrendered season high yards in each of its three games verse FBS opponents this year as well.

Freshen up - again

Last week, we examined the benefit of backing college football teams playing with a week of rest in Game 4 of the season when off a win in Game 3.

Following a 3-0 ATS performance by last week’s qualifying teams (Buffalo, Oregon and Central Florida), we thought it would be wise to revisit the sagacious square once again this week.

To recap, our powerful database instructs us to “play on” these reinvigorated home teams when coming off a win with a week of rest in Game 4 of the season as they are now a super-strong 73-33-1 ATS in these games since 1980.

This week finds Baylor, Kansas and Memphis playing with renewed confidence.

When bringing these rested Game 4 hosts in with a measure of revenge, they rocket to 27-9 ATS. All three of the aforementioned teams will be looking to avenge losses from previous meetings this week.

And if they dress up as either a favorite or as a underdog of 10 or less points, they zoom to 21-4 ATS.

With that, we expect Baylor will be loaded for “Bear” this Saturday.

Smoke and mirrors

We enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.

We call it winning “inside-out”, or with smoke and mirrors.

College football teams playing this week which won the game but lost the stats in their previous outing include: Kansas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State, Rice, Utah and West Virginia.

In the NFL, the “inside-out” winners included: Detroit, New England, Seattle and Tennessee.

Note: the Seahawks were out-yarded by 206 yards in their win over the Texans.

Balance beam

After four week in the NFL, the oddsmakers have done a good job with the Over/Under totals. There have been 32 Overs and 31 Unders.

From our NFL totals tipsheet, here is the weekly breakdown …

• Week 1: 8-8 O/U
• Week 2: 8-8 O/U
• Week 3: 7-9 O/U
• Week 4: 9-6 O/U

From a league perspective, the best Over situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) as these games have gone 15-7 over/under.

The best Under situation has occurred in same conference non-division games, going 7-15 over/under.

Stat of the Week

Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State is 1-16 ATS in its first conference game when facing an opponent with at least one win on the season.

**TheGame** · 10-04-2013, 05:59 AM

Friday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

BYU Cougars at Utah State Aggies (-6, 57.5)

The Brigham Young Cougars boast one of the most robust rushing games in the NCAA - but they'll face a significant test Friday night as they visit the Utah State Aggies at Romney Stadium. Utah State is allowing an average of 17 points per game - good for 23rd in the nation - and has surrendered fewer than 127 rushing yards per game through its first five contests. The Aggies will have to deal with a dual threat in the BYU backfield, with quarterback Taysom Hill fifth in the country at 141.3 rushing yards per game and running back Jamaal Williams13th at 126 ypg.

Utah State could use a boost with the return to form of Joe Hill. The junior running back has been battling injuries all season and had just nine carries for 30 yards in last week's one-sided win over San Jose State. Hill is considered day-to-day for Friday's game. Backup Joey DeMartino has fared well in Hill's absence - carrying 34 times for 297 yards - but lacks breakaway speed and could find things difficult against a formidable Cougars defense. BYU holds a 45-34-3 edge in the all-time series, including a 6-3 victory last Oct. 5.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
LINE: Utah State opened as a six-point favorite but the line has since dropped to -5.5. The O/U has climbed from 56.5 to 57.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with clear skies and wind blowing from north to south across the length of the field at 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* The Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Mountain West Conference.
* The Aggies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* The under is 11-1 in BYU's last 12 Friday games.

Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs (-6, 58)

The Wolf Pack offense is rolling again following a momentary hiccup, and will look to carry over its momentum into Friday's showdown with Mountain West rival San Diego State. Nevada scored 76 points in consecutive victories over Hawaii and Air Force, and hits the road for the first time since a 62-7 drubbing at the hands of the Florida State Seminoles. The Aztecs are also coming off a victory, defeating the New Mexico State Aggies 26-16 last weekend to halt a season-opening three-game losing streak.

Nevada is led by multi-talented quarterback Cody Fajardo, who threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns and added a pair of rushing scores in last week's 45-42 win over Air Force. Fajardo did considerable damage despite dealing with a knee injury that forced him to miss games against the Seminoles and Warriors. The junior signal caller will be wearing a knee brace against San Diego State as a precautionary measure, but has told reporters that the device does not inhibit his ability to run.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
LINE: SDSU opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but the line has since shifted to six. The O/U has risen from 57 to 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with clear skies and calm winds.
TRENDS:

* Nevada is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 40 points in its previous contest.
* SDSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* The over is 7-1 in the Aztecs' last eight games against teams with winning road records.

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