Thoughts on UCF vs. Louisville??

[TheMule]

I'm thinking this game stays within 14. UCF has a solid QB who doesn't make many mistakes; are 3-0 on the road this season, including a win at Penn St; almost beat South Carolina; they don't commit turnovers; Louisville's top two receivers are ailing and may not even play tonight. Louisville beat Rutgers by 14 at home in their last game and I think UCF is a lot better than them.

Am I missing something or is it very possible that UCF not only covers, but just might pull off the outright win as a two TD Dog?!?

some trends:

• Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
• Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• Knights are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Knights are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.

• Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.

Appreciate if you'd post any and all thoughts.

[TheGame]

Here let me give you one reason to look the other way

Brandon Lang

Friday Selection...

My 40 Dime selection is on Central Florida over Louisville. The current line on this game is +14 in Vegas and offshore.

[TheMule]

Here let me give you one reason to look the other way

Brandon Lang

Friday Selection...

My 40 Dime selection is on Central Florida over Louisville. The current line on this game is +14 in Vegas and offshore.

Fuck me... doomed!

[TheGame]

ATS Trends

Central Florida

Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Knights are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Knights are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Knights are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Knights are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.

Louisville

Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Friday games. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.

[TheGame]

You have strong trends backing a play on UCF. My problem is I'm a stickler for head to head match ups.
Probably is from my stronger sport being baseball and you have a ton of head to head data to work with.
That above is also why you never see me mess around with IL play.

Not sure of the bet %
But the books have moved this line from an open as low as 10 to as high as 14.5 at some shops.
It has dropped to 14 at most places and seen one -13.5
You could make a better case for the books trying to steer you towards UCF.
The above was regarding the offshore books.
Some of the Vegas books have been holding at 10.5 Mirage held 10.5 for a long time. Had a brief jump to 14.5 and then all the way back to 10.5 now.

[TheMule]

Sportsbook Spy says 54% on UCF... and SportsInsights says 56% on UCF

[TheMule]

Also, UCF had their bye week last week and have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup.

The UNDER might be the best play: The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for U of L, 3-1 in its home games. The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for UCF, 2-1 in its road assignments.

[captjoe388]

UCF is a solid team. Cant see them getting blown out here. Ville trying to go undefeated and get to the championship game, so the pressure may induce some costly mistakes. UCF for me.

[TheMule]

Yes - WINNER --- Outright!!!


UCF is a solid team, regardless of conference.

[captjoe388]

Well Done!!