NCAA Football Betting Info 10/20

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ACC Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams


2016 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-3 0-3 2-3-1 2-4
Clemson 7-0 4-0 4-3 2-5
Duke 3-4 0-3 4-3 1-6
Florida State 5-2 2-2 3-3 3-3
Georgia Tech 4-3 1-3 3-2-1 3-2-1
Louisville 5-1 3-1 3-2-1 5-1
Miami (Fla.) 4-2 1-2 4-2 3-3
North Carolina 5-2 3-1 4-3 3-4
North Carolina State 4-2 1-1 5-1 3-2-1
Pittsburgh 5-2 2-1 2-5 6-1
Syracuse 3-4 1-2 3-4 2-5
Virginia 2-4 1-1 3-2-1 2-3-1
Virginia Tech 4-2 2-1 3-3 3-3
Wake Forest 5-2 2-2 4-3 3-4




Miami-Florida at Virginia Tech (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Two weeks ago this game appeared to be shaping up as a battle of unbeatens in the Coastal Division. Miami lost their rivalry game against Florida State on a last-second blocked extra point, and followed it up with an egg-laying against North Carolina last week, so Mark Richt and the Hurricanes suddenly find themselves on the ropes. Virginia Tech isn't quite spinning out of control, but a shocking loss in the dome in Syracuse last week, a decisive loss at that, casts doubt on the championship aspirations of the Hokies. They still might come away with the Coastal Division title, having beaten UNC already. This Miami-Virginia Tech is always important, and this season is no exception. Two losses in the Coastal doesn't mean you're out of the hunt, but a third loss will be too much to overcome.


The Hokies generally bring their best to the national showcase game on Thursdays, posting a 21-10 ATS mark in their past 31 appearances on Thursday. Miami has covered five of their past seven conference battles, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings with the Hokies. The under has cashed in four straight Thursday games for Miami, and the under is 5-1 in their past six against winning teams and 13-6 in their past 19 ACC battles. For the Hokies, the over is 4-1 in their past five at Lane Stadium, but the under is 19-7 in their past 26 on Thursday and 39-18-1 in their past 58 league outings.

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Re: NCAA Football Betting Info 10/20

Miami, Fl. at Virginia Tech
By ASA


This week’s Thursday Night spotlight game takes place in the ACC as two of the preseason favorites in the Coastal Division face off in a critical game for each school.


Match-up: Miami, Fl. at Virginia Tech
Venue: Lane Stadium, Blacksburg, Virginia
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 20, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Virginia Tech -6, Total is 51
Last Meeting: 2015, at Miami FL 30 – Virginia Tech 20


Both of these teams came into last year with high hopes and visions of winning the ACC dancing in their heads. Both disappointed. The Miami Hurricanes finished last season 8-5 overall and 5-3 in the ACC Coastal Division which was good for 3rd place.


Virginia Tech was worse finishing up the 2015 season with a 7-6 overall record and just 4-4 in the ACC which was 4th out of 6 in the Coastal Division. Both teams again came into this season with high hopes, new head coaches, and again, two of the favorites in the ACC Coastal.


When these teams met last year in Miami the Hurricanes were 3-2 on the season coming of consecutive losses at Cincinnati and at Florida State. The Hokies were just 2-3 with their only wins coming over Purdue and Furman who ended the 2015 season with a combined 6-17 record.


Miami was a three-point home favorite and won the game 30-20. Miami QB Brad Kaaya shredded the Tech defense for nearly 300 yards passing and 2 TD’s. The overall yardage was fairly even with Miami racking up 395 yards to 361 for the Hokies, however Virginia Tech actually put up 5.8 yards per play to 5.7 for the 'Canes.


The key in the game was the 4 turnovers by Tech to Miami’s 0 giveaways. Despite scoring points in 3 of their 4 first half possessions, the Hokies trailed 20-13 at half. They cut the lead to 23-20 early in the 4th quarter but Miami’s next possession was a 79 yard TD drive to salt the game away. It was the 3rd time in 4 years (2012 – 2015) that Miami topped Virginia Tech.


We move ahead to this matchup and the Hurricanes come in reeling. New head coach Mark Richt had "The U" rolling to start the season with a 4-0 mark but they have since lost two straight home games to drop to 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the ACC.


Their lone conference win came at Georgia Tech by a final score of 35-21. The Yellow Jackets actually rushed for 267 yards in that game and ran 73 offensive plays to just 56 for Miami. The 'Canes were bolstered by not one, but two fumble recoveries for TD’s which turned out to be the margin in the 14-point win.


The last two weeks have seen Miami lose, tight, down to the wire games at home to Florida State and North Carolina. Miami was outgained in each of those two losses by a combined 230 yards, however both were decided very late.


In their loss to FSU, the Hurricanes scored what seemed to be the tying TD with under 2:00 minutes remaining but missed the extra point in the 20-19 loss. Last week Miami trailed UNC 20-13 with under 2:00 minutes remaining and had the ball looking for the game tying drive but QB Brad Kaaya fumbled after getting sacked and the Heels recovered and ran out the clock.


Can Miami get off the matt after those two physically and emotionally draining losses? On top of that they travel on a short week with just three days to practice for Virginia Tech?


That will be a key element in this game. If history holds true, the Hurricanes should play well as they have the ACC’s best record in Thursday Night games. They are 18-4 lifetime on Thursday night including a winning 7-3 record on the road.


New head coach Justin Fuente has the Hokies sitting at an identical 4-2 overall record but they are a game ahead for Miami in the ACC Coastal at 2-1.


Tech is coming off an embarrassing 31-17 road loss at Syracuse, a game that had the Hokies favored by 23 points. Coming into the game, V-Tech had a 56-2 outright record in games in which they were favored by 21 points or more. Make that 56-3.


They couldn’t slow down a Syracuse passing attack that beat them for 405 yards on 55 pass attempts. The fast paced Syracuse offense ran a ridiculous 100 offensive plays to just 72 for Tech. It was a tie game with under 8:00 remaining and the Orange closed it out with two TD’s to win by 14. It was the first game this season that their opponent had more yardage than Virginia Tech.


Their other two ACC games were dominating wins at they beat UNC on the road in terrible weather (Hurricane Andrew weekend) 34-3 and whipped BC 49-0. Their only other loss besides Syracuse, was against a very good Tennessee team at a neutral site (Bristol). They jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead over the Vols, as most seem to do, and Tennessee outscored them 45-7 the rest of the way.


Tech is happy to be at home, where they are 72-21 since 2002, after back-to-back road games the last two weeks.


These two have eerily similar stats on the season and not just their identical 4-2 records.


Miami averages 422 YPG offensively while V-Tech puts up 421 YPG. They both average 188 YPG rushing with Miami passing for 234 and Virginia Tech 233. The Hurricanes allow 313 total defensive yards and Tech gives up 291, although both are allowing 4.2 yards per play.


Laslty, these two teams have the two top point differentials in the ACC Coastal with Miami at +136 (220-84) and Tech at +105 (214-109).


These two teams look very evenly matched on paper but we’ll see if that plays out on the field Thursday night.


Historical Trends:


-- Virginia Tech is 2-0 ATS at home in FBS games this year. However they were just 10-20 ATS their previous 30 home games entering this season.


-- Between 1995 – 2010, Virginia Tech covered 13 of the 16 meetings in this ACC series. However, Miami has covered 4 of the 5 meetings since 2010.


-- The 'Canes are just 6-22 SU as a road dog of +6 or more (17-12-1 ATS)


-- Virginia Tech is just 9-25-1 ATS the last 35 times they’ve been favored by -6 or more. That includes a 2-0 ATS mark in that role this season.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Football Betting Info 10/20

Preview and Prediction: Troy Trojans (5-1) at South Alabama Jaguars (3-3)
By Mark Roberts
Thursday, October 20, 2016 at 7:30 pm (Ladd Peebles Stadium)
The Line: South Alabama Jaguars +8 -- Over/Under: 51 See the Latest Odds
TV: ESPNU


Ladd-Peebles Stadium and the South Alabama Jaguars get ready for weekday college football when the Troy Trojans visit.


The Troy Trojans are out to take control of the Sun Belt college football standings with a win at South Alabama. The Trojans come off a 31-21 victory versus visiting Georgia State as a 20 point favorite. The Panthers won the yardage battle 418-363 but Troy forced three turnovers which was decisive. Jordan Chunn was the only Troy runner that did anything with 91 yards and a score on 32 carries which wasn’t enough to worry Georgia State. Trojans quarterback Brandon Silvers completed 20-35 for 235 yards with a pair of touchdowns and an interception with top receiver Deondre Douglas making six receptions including a 29 yard TD strike.


The South Alabama Jaguars have been all over the college football map and I’m finding them difficult to figure out. I figured the Jaguars out in a 17-7 defeat at Arkansas State; not enough scoring. USA was outgained 297-255 but a pair of turnovers hurts so much more when moving the chains is a struggle. South Alabama had no success rushing the football with just a two yard average. That put the pressure on Jaguars quarterback Dallas Davis who connected on 9-15 for 146 yards and an interception with Cole Garvin going 3-12 for 48 yards while Gerald Everett was the offensive star with five receptions for 125 yards.


Troy are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and the under is 5-0 in Troy last 5 games following a straight up win while the under is 6-0 in Troy last 6 conference games. USA are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game and the over is 4-0 in USA last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record while the over is 8-1-1 in USA last 10 home games.


From what I have seen from Troy, they could be the best in the Sun Belt although I warn about having too much faith in them because that’s when they fall on their face..


MARK'S PICK
Troy -8

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Football Betting Info 10/20

Preview: Cougars (4-3) at Broncos (6-0)


Date: October 20, 2016 10:15 PM EDT


Brigham Young produced a stellar ending when it defeated Boise State last season but the Cougars don't want to rely on another late-game prayer.


The No. 14 Broncos would like to avoid another dose of anguish as they attempt to bolster their resume.


Boise State (6-0) aims to remain unbeaten as well as avenge last year's stunning defeat when it hosts BYU (4-3) in a nonconference game on the blue turf on Thursday night (10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).


The Broncos were one play from a victory last season when Cougars quarterback Tanner Mangum -- who is from the Boise suburb of Eagle, Idaho -- threw a 35-yard, fourth-down 'Hail Mary' pass to Mitchell Juergens to give BYU a four-point lead with 45 seconds left.


Free safety Kai Nacua added a 50-yard interception return to punctuate the Cougars' unlikely 35-24 victory.


The comeback hasn't been forgotten -- on either side -- and the BYU players are well aware the welcome mats won't be rolled out in Boise.


"Playing in Boise will be kind of a hostile environment, but I'm excited to go there and play," sophomore linebacker Francis Bernard said.


The Cougars arrive with a three-game winning streak that includes back-to-back victories over Michigan State and Mississippi State. BYU also provides a much-needed challenge for the Broncos, who are the second-highest ranked team from a non-power conference behind No. 11 Houston.


Boise State defeated Pac-12 programs Washington State and Oregon State earlier this season. And a win over BYU would certainly increase the school's chances of landing a Cotton Bowl bid as the top team from a non-power league.


The Broncos realize the Cougars might be the best team left on their schedule. Boise State is 4-2 in the previous six meetings between the schools.


"I think there is a rivalry there," senior receiver Thomas Sperbeck said. "We're definitely looking forward to it, especially on a short week. It will be a great challenge for our team."


Thursday could prove to a memorable night for Sperbeck, who has 38 receptions (six for touchdowns) while compiling a Mountain West-leading 701 receiving yards. He has 3,030 career yards, which ranks third in Boise State history behind Titus Young (3,063 from 2007-10) and Matt Miller (3,049 from 2011-14).


Broncos running back Jeremy McNichols is coming off a momentous occasion. The junior rushed for a career-best 217 yards -- his second 200-yard outing of the season -- during Saturday's 28-23 victory over Colorado State.


McNichols' 40-carry night was highlighted by an 80-yard scoring run -- the third of at least that length in his college career. He has rushed for 775 rushing yards this season and has caught 20 passes for 263 yards.


BYU also features a stellar running back in senior Jamaal Williams, who became the school's all-time leading rusher during Friday's 28-21 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State.


Williams (3,468 yards) surpassed Harvey Unga (3,455 from 2006-09). He has rushed for 942 yards -- second-most nationally -- and 10 touchdowns this season.


Williams complements senior quarterback Taysom Hill, who has passed for 1,420 yards and nine touchdowns while adding 324 yards and four scores on the ground.


Hill grew up in the Eastern Idaho town of Pocatello but doesn't find it to be a special occasion to play in Boise, located in the southwestern part of the state.


"Not really," Hill said. "It's Boise State and I grew up watching them, but the Treasure Valley is further away than Provo is to me and Pocatello. It's fun to go back and play in Idaho against a good program, but every week I am going to prepare the best I can. So in terms of preparation, it's all the same."


The Cougars are receiving solid play on the defensive side from Nacua. The senior is tied for the national lead with five interceptions and has 13 in his career.


Bernard rolled up a career-high 16 tackles against Mississippi State to raise his season count to 48. Sophomore middle linebacker Butch Pau'u and junior outside linebacker Fred Warner share the team lead of 51.


BYU will try to slow down Broncos quarterback Brett Rypien, who leads the Mountain West with 1,622 yards and 12 touchdown passes.


Boise State senior defensive end Sam McCaskill leads the Mountain West with 9 1/2 tackles for loss. He is second on the Broncos with five sacks behind sophomore nose tackle David Moa (5 1/2 sacks).


Boise State allowed 20 fourth-quarter points before hanging on against Colorado State but coach Bryan Harsin remains unconcerned.


"There's nothing weird about that, it's a win," Harsin said. "Watch college football. Every single week, it's hard to win every single week. There are no apologies for a 'W.'"

[TheGame]

Re: NCAA Football Betting Info 10/20

NCAAF


Thursday’s games


Miami lost to Florida State/UNC last two weeks, now has short week here; ‘canes scored 40 pts/game in winning its two road games, at App State/Ga Tech. Miami is an underdog for first time this year; they’re 4-7-1 in last 12 games as a road underdog. Virginia Tech is 2-0 as a home favorite this year, but 10-17-1 in last 28 games as a home fave. ’canes beat Tech 30-20/30-6 last two years; underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight series games, 5-2 in last seven played here. Home favorites are 4-10 vs spread in ACC games this season.


5-1 Troy’s only loss was 30-24 at Clemson; total yardage was 414-386, so Troy is good. Trojans won last four games, have road wins at Southern Miss (37-31), Idaho (34-13)- they are 5-3 in last eight games as a road favorite. South Alabama lost three of last four I-A games but win was over San Diego State, which was in top 25 at the time- they also was at Miss State. Jaguars beat Troy 27-13/24-18 last two years; teams split last four meetings, with underdogs 2-0-1 vs spread in last three. Four of last five Troy games stayed under total; under is 4-1 in USA games.


BYU split its two true road games, winning 31-14 at Michigan State after tough 20-19 loss at rival Utah; Cougars are 12-4 vs spread in last 16 games as a road underdog. BYU won its last three games overall, beating Miss State in OT LW. Boise State is 2-8 vs spread in its last ten games as a home favorite. Home side won last five BYU-Boise State games; Cougars lost last three visits here, by 1-1-25 points. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five series games. Mountain West non-conference home favorites are 4-4 vs spread.

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Re: NCAA Football Betting Info 10/20

Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall


Thursday, Oct. 20


MIAMI-FLA. at VIRGINIA TECH....Miami covered 4 of last 5 meetings in the Al Golden era and won last two SU by DD margins. But Canes 5-9 as dog since 2013 and Richt only 5-11-1 as dog his last seven seasons at Georgia. Hokies big wins and covers 3 of last 4 this season.


Slight to Virginia Tech, based on team trends.




TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA...Troy 4-1-1 vs. line TY and covers first three on road. But no covers last 3 vs. USA and SU losses last two. Jags 2-0 as DD dog this season, but just 2-6-1 vs. spread last 9 at Mobile.


Slight to Troy, based on recent trends.




BYU at BOISE STATE...Home team has won and covered last three meetings, though Boise no covers last six as blue carpet chalk. Sitake 4-0 as dog in BYU debut season.


BYU, based on team trends.