NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 10 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews


You can go ahead and start ignoring the Associated Press and USA Today Coaches Top 25 polls starting this week. That's because the first College Football Playoff rankings will be out Tuesday night, and those are all that matter in terms of finding out which teams will make the national semifinals and a New Year's Six bowl game.


Alas, I doubt there's much drama in the first rankings as they are surely going to mirror the top four teams in the polls: Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington. There's no question the Tide will be No. 1, but the next three could be in any order. Doesn't really matter as if all four teams win out, that will be your Final Four.


The Tide are +135 favorites to repeat as National Champions and they come off a bye week. Alabama has a huge one Saturday at No. 15 LSU as a 7-point favorite. Those Tigers also come off a bye week and have been playing vastly better offensively since firing Les Miles and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron -- one of the reasons Miles was so squarely on the hot seat entering this season was his five-game losing streak to Nick Saban. If interim coach Ed Orgeron can pull off the upset on Saturday, he probably gets the interim tag taken off unless the Tigers then flop the rest of the way.


Last season, LSU was unbeaten and ranked fourth when it visited No. 7 and one-loss Alabama. You may remember that Leonard Fournette was the Heisman Trophy betting favorite at the time but he was held to 31 yards on 19 carries in the 30-16 loss. That started LSU on a three-game skid that almost got Miles fired last year. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry took control of the Heisman race with 210 yards and three touchdowns on 38 carries. This is Alabama's final true road game and, I believe, its only realistic chance of losing until the playoff. No, I don't think No. 11 Auburn wins in Tuscaloosa and the SEC East champ has no shot in Atlanta.


No. 2 Michigan is +500 to win it all and was pushed a little by Michigan State on Saturday but ended a three-game skid in the series with a 32-23 victory -- not coming close to covering the ridiculous 24-point spread. The Wolverines should have little trouble this week at home vs. Maryland (+30).


No. 3 Clemson won at Florida State for the first time in 10 years, 37-34 in a great game. Deshaun Watson kept his Heisman hopes alive with 430 yards of offense, including the winning 34-yard TD pass to Jordan Leggett with 2:06 to go. Clemson, now +700 to win it all, is a 26-point home favorite this week vs. Syracuse and has no ranked teams left on the schedule before the ACC title game. The No. 4 Huskies won 31-24 at No. 17 Utah on a punt-return TD with 3:25 left. Washington, +700 for the national title as well, is -15.5 this week at Cal and has one ranked team left on the schedule: the Apple Cup at No. 25 Washington State to close the season. The Cougars are overrated, though.


Here are a few Week 10 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from AP poll and games Saturday unless noted.


No. 12 Oklahoma at Iowa State (+21): ESPN Thursday night game. The Big 12 was a big-time loser in Week 9 as unbeatens Baylor and West Virginia were upset by Texas and Oklahoma State, respectively. So now it's looking likely that the only chance the conference has to reach the playoff is Oklahoma, and that's going to be quite difficult considering the Sooners already have two nonconference losses. But OU is the only team without a loss in conference. This could be a bit of a trap game as the Sooners finish the season vs. No. 13 Baylor, at No. 14 West Virginia and vs. No. 22 Oklahoma State. But OU will be favored in all those unless Baker Mayfield gets hurt. The Big 12 really has not had a good few weeks. The conference looked silly when deciding two weeks ago not to expand, and then last week made the perplexing decision not to split into divisions next year when the conference championship game will return. Divisions could have made it possible to avoid having the championship game participants playing twice during a short period of time as cross-division games could have been scheduled for earlier in the season. For example, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could play back-to-back weeks next year if they finish 1-2. Something similar happened in the Pac-12 in 2012 when UCLA and Stanford met back-to-back weeks. The pick: Iowa State.

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Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Big 12 Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams


2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 6-1 3-1 2-5 1-6
Iowa State 1-7 0-5 5-3 5-3
Kansas 1-7 0-5 2-6 2-6
Kansas State 5-3 3-2 3-5 3-5
Oklahoma 6-2 5-0 3-5 5-3
Oklahoma State 6-2 4-1 5-3 5-3
Texas 4-4 2-3 5-3 4-4
Texas Christian 4-4 2-3 1-7 4-4
Texas Tech 4-4 2-3 6-2 4-4
West Virginia 6-1 3-1 3-4 2-5




Oklahoma at Iowa State (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
The Sooners are the only remaining unbeaten Big 12 team in conference play after Baylor and West Virginia suffered setbacks in league play last week. Oklahoma will look to keep it cooking against a bad Iowa State team which is already eliminated from bowl contention. Thursday football hasn't been kind to OU, as they're 1-4 ATS in their past five Thursday games. However, Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS in their past 12 conference tilts and 5-2 ATS in their past seven road outings against a team with a losing home record. Iowa State has been competitive despite their poor overall record, going 5-1 ATS in their past six home games and 4-1 ATS in their past Big 12 battles. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four games on a Thursday. However, the favorite has covered each of the past four, Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings and the Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Ames.

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Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Pac-12 Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams


2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 2-6 0-5 1-7 4-4
Arizona State 5-4 2-4 5-4 5-4
California 4-4 2-3 4-4 6-2
Colorado 6-2 4-1 8-0 3-5
Oregon 3-5 1-4 1-6-1 6-2
Oregon State 2-6 1-4 6-2 4-4
Southern California 5-3 4-2 4-4 2-6
Stanford 5-3 3-3 5-3 2-6
UCLA 3-5 1-4 2-6 3-4-1
Utah 7-2 4-2 5-4 5-4
Washington 8-0 5-0 4-4 7-1
Washington State 6-2 5-0 4-4 5-3


UCLA at Colorado (Thu. - FOX Sports 1, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Bruins head to Folsom Field in Boulder looking to salvage their season, as they hit November with five losses already. The Buffaloes are coming off a bye and looking to move to 9-0 ATS on the season. UCLA is just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games overall, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record. UCLA is also 1-5 ATS in their past six games on the road. Colorado has covered six straight games inside the league, 5-0 ATS in their past five home games and 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a losing overall record. Colorado is holding steady as an 11-point favorite and the total has been pushed up from 55 to 58. That's interesting with the 'under' 3-0-1 in UCLA's past four road games, 6-2-1 in their past nine conference tilts and 6-2-1 in their past nine against winning teams. The under is 4-0 in Colorado's past four, 5-0 in their past five against losing teams and 4-0 in their past four conference battles. The under is also 5-1 in Colorado's past six at home.

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Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Oklahoma at Iowa State
By Joe Nelson


Oklahoma is alone at 5-0 in first place in the Big XII standings, looking for another great late season run to wipe out a rough September. Iowa State may be 0-5 in conference play, but this has been a competitive group that was close to a few major upsets and this Thursday night Big XII clash should provide an entertaining start to the football weekend.


Match-up: Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 3, 7:30 PM ET
Line: Oklahoma -21, Over/Under 70
Last Meeting: 2015, at Oklahoma (-24) 52, Iowa State 16


The Sooners made the College Football Playoff last season despite an early season loss and this year’s team seems to be on a mission to try to do the same even against steep odds with two September defeats. The candidacy for the Sooners is fragile with the losses to Houston and Ohio State no longer looking as impressive as they did when both squads were undefeated top 10 teams. Oklahoma is still the favorite to win the Big XII with four games to go and the Sooners can still wind up with an attractive bowl pairing at the end of the year while being ready to move up should chaos occur on championship weekend.


The 5-0 start in Big XII play has featured three wins by a touchdown or less and Oklahoma has allowed 33 points per game in conference play as one can’t assume that the Sooners will win out. The final three games are against Baylor, at West Virginia, and rival Oklahoma State and this could be a dangerous game that gets a bit overlooked.


Iowa State made three bowl appearances in seven seasons under Paul Rhodes, but made a move after last season hiring Matt Campbell who led Toledo to four successful seasons. At 1-7 and winless in the Big XII it has been a tough transition season and barring a major upset a third 2-10 campaign in the last decade looks like the most likely scenario. This is a team that can still get a season-making win as they played very close in narrow losses against Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State.


Iowa State has had a handful of significant upsets in recent years including beating Iowa two years ago on the road and most notably stunning Oklahoma State as a four-touchdown underdog late in the 2011 season when the Cowboys were 10-0 and the #2 team in the nation. This series has generally featured blowouts for the Sooners, including a combined score of 159-40 the past three seasons. Iowa State last beat Oklahoma in 1990 in a major upset, but they haven’t even played to within closer than 10 points with the Sooners since 1998.


Despite being a bit of a disappointment this season Oklahoma still owns elite offensive numbers, gaining an eye-popping 7.8 yards per play and throwing for 344 yards per game behind Baker Mayfield. Considered a Heisman candidate to start the season, Mayfield is completing nearly 71 percent of his passes and he should surpass last season’s production numbers, though likely with more interceptions as well with five already this season. Sophomore Joe Mixon has been the star in the backfield with over 800 rushing yards and over 300 receiving yards while senior Dede Westbrook should finish as one of them most successful receivers in the nation.


Oklahoma’s defense came to play last week vs. Kansas in a 56-3 result but allowing 854 yards against Texas Tech in the prior game makes this team hard to take seriously in the national conversation. The Sooners have allowed 40 or more points in half of their eight games as opposing teams have had a lot of success against Oklahoma, mainly through the air. Last season’s Oklahoma defense exposed the team in the national semifinal vs. Clemson and on average this year’s team has allowed about 10 more points per game and nearly 70 more yards per game compared with the 2015 squad.


The Iowa State defense doesn’t rate much stronger especially with far worse numbers against the run, but the Cyclones can have hope of an upset knowing they should be able to keep pace in this matchup. The Cyclones have played two quarterbacks most of the season, but it seems like sophomore Jacob Park is taking on a bigger share of the snaps of late though junior Joel Lanning has stronger numbers across the board this season. The big issue for Iowa State has been the lack of a running game this season with the team gaining just 3.6 yards per rush and being unable to sustain long drives was certainly the downfall in blowing late leads in a few big games this season, most notably vs. Baylor when Iowa State had a 42-28 edge in the fourth quarter.


Iowa State has been out-gained on the ground in six of eight games this season and getting out-rushed was a common thread in both Oklahoma losses this season. Over the past three games, Iowa State is running the ball a bit more effectively at 4.8 yards per carry and 188 yards per game and the home and road splits paint an opportunity for the Cyclones as Oklahoma has allowed 6.8 yards per play away from home while Iowa State has much better defensive numbers in Ames.


Ultimately this is a win that would mean more to Iowa State although a loss would certainly be more damaging for Oklahoma. It may not be an ideal spot for either team as while hosting a national TV game should be a draw for the Cyclones, facing a powerful offense on a short week is a big challenge. The Cyclones also came up short in last week’s homecoming game vs. Kansas State, losing 31-26 as Iowa State had a big yardage edge though late scoring made the final score closer than the game ever was. For Oklahoma, next week’s game with Baylor could decide the Big XII title and the team clearly played one of its best games last week, albeit vs. Kansas. It will be tough to be quite as sharp this week with travel and a short week schedule for the Sooners ahead of one of the season’s biggest games.


Historical Trends: Oklahoma is 26-1-1 S/U and 16-12 ATS in this series going back to 1980, going 9-2 ATS since 1999 and winning S/U in each of the last 17 meetings. Oklahoma is 9-5 ATS at Iowa State since 1980, winning S/U in all 14 of those meetings as Iowa State hasn’t won at home in this series since 1960. Oklahoma is just 5-8 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 2010 and the Sooners are 44-52 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more points in any venue since 1990, though going 7-3 ATS since 2014 in that heavy favorite role. Iowa State has covered in four straight games as a home underdog including both instances this season. Iowa State has covered in just two of the last eight instances when dogged by 20 or more points. The Cyclones have won S/U three times since 2009 as an underdog of 20 or more points as they have had a few major upsets in recent years. Matt Campbell owns a S/U record of 20-8 (15-11-2 ATS) in home games while Bob Stoops is 59-21 S/U and 44-36 ATS in road games.

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Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Buffaloes, Bruins battle


College Football Week 10 Thursday Night Preview
UCLA (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) vs. Colorado (6-2 SU, 8-0 ATS)


It's no secret now that the Colorado Buffaloes have been the best bet in college football for the better part of a calendar year now. Colorado finished the 2015-16 campaign on a 4-2 ATS run and have carried that over to this season as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in 2016.


They are in prime position to compete for a Pac-12 Championship for the first time since they've moved to that conference, and could even end up sneaking into the College Football Playoff picture if everything falls right for them. Three of their final four games this year are at home which is a huge plus and that stretch begins as a double digit home favorite vs. UCLA this week.


The Bruins are in the midst of another disappointing campaign as they are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their eight contests this year. They've lost QB Josh Rosen for the year with nerve damage in his shoulder and backup QB Mike Fafaul has taken over and shown promise at times.


Fafaul threw 70 passes and five TD's in a 52-45 loss to Utah last time out as the Bruins have basically become a one-dimensional team now with no running game to speak of. That's a huge cause for concern against a Colorado team that is one of the best in the conference and can gear up to stop the aerial attack.


If that's the case Colorado doesn't even need to be at their best to keep UCLA's offense in check because they will almost assuredly get help from the Bruins carelessness with the football.


Odds: Colorado (-12.5)


For as promising as Fafaul as looked at times during games, his biggest problem is interceptions. He's thrown at least two interceptions in each game he's seen significant playing time, and had four INT's to go along with those five TD passes last time out. Turnovers are a killer for any team, but when UCLA's QB has turned it over eight times in two and a half games, it's not surprising to see the Bruins have a losing record this year.


Turning the ball over repeatedly is not something anyone wants to do against this Colorado defense as they've shut down nearly everyone they've gone up against. Yes, the Buffs did give up 45 points in a road loss at #2 Michigan, and followed that up a week later by allowing 38 points at Oregon, but other than those two games the Buffaloes have allowed 7, 7, 6, 21, 16, and 5 points.


With that kind of production on defense, it's no wonder that they are the best CFB team against the spread this year. They should have a field day against Fafaul and UCLA's offense this week as they should grab multiple turnovers to set their offense up in prime scoring spots.


So while all streaks must come to an end and Colorado will eventually not cover a point spread, I don't believe that will happen this week. In all facets of the game the Buffaloes are the much better team here and with UCLA's defense just getting torched for 52 points last time out, this game has blowout written all over it.


Colorado has covered the last three games with UCLA and although the Buffaloes were listed as double digit underdogs in all three of those games, the team that cashes the betting ticket this year won't change. Colorado almost beat UCLA outright the last two years as +22.5 and +14 dogs respectively, and now that the roles are reversed in terms of the point spread, I expect Colorado to roll over this banged up and turnover prone UCLA program.


Best Bet: Take Colorado -12.5

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Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Preview and Prediction: Buffalo Bulls (2-6) at Ohio Bobcats (6-3)
Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 6:00 pm (Peden Stadium)
The Line: Ohio Bobcats -18.5 -- Over/Under:
TV: CBSSN


The Buffalo Bulls and Ohio Bobcats meet Thursday night in a MAC college football game at Peden Stadium.


The Buffalo Bulls look for their first road win of the season and first back-to-back victories of the year. The Buffalo Bulls have lost four straight road games overall. Tyree Jackson is completing 52.8 percent of his passes for 1,374 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jackson has thrown five interceptions in his last two games. Mason Schreck and Marcus McGill have combined for 655 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Malcolm Robinson has 16 receptions. The Buffalo Bulls ground game is averaging 169 yards per contest, and Jordan Johnson leads the way with 725 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 31.8 points and 427.3 yards per game. Khalil Hodge leads the Buffalo Bulls with 93 tackles, Brandon Crawford has two sacks and Tim Roberts has two interceptions.


The Ohio Bobcats look to build on their MAC East lead after winning five of their last six games. The Ohio Bobcats have lost three home games dating back to last season. Greg Windham is completing 56.4 percent of his passes for 1,366 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Windham and Quinton Maxwell have combined for 14 touchdown passes this season. Sebastian Smith and Jordan Reid have combined for 1,003 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while Papi White has 21 receptions. The Ohio Bobcats ground game is averaging 200 yards per contest, and Dorian Brown leads the way with 624 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Ohio is allowing 24.4 points and 376.9 yards per game. Blair Brown leads the Ohio Bobcats with 78 tackles, Tarell Basham has 7.5 sacks and Kylan Nelson has two interceptions.


The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.


The Buffalo Bulls simply aren't a good football team and haven't had much success in covering games either. Ohio has proven to be one of the better teams in the MAC and has covered nine of its last 13 games. Also, the last three games between Buffalo and Ohio resulted in the home team winning in a blowout. Given what we've seen from both teams, I have to side with the Ohio Bobcats at home by three touchdowns.


RANDY'S PICK
Ohio Bobcats -18.5

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Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Preview and Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves (3-4) at Georgia State Panthers (2-6)
Thursday, November 3, 2016 at 7:30 pm (Georgia Dome)
The Line: Georgia State Panthers +5 -- Over/Under: 46
TV: ESPNU


The Arkansas State Red Wolves and Georgia State Panthers clash in a Sun Belt college football game Thursday night at the Georgia Dome on ESPNU.


The Arkansas State Red Wolves look to build on their three-game winning streak to get back to an improbable .500 record. The Arkansas State Red Wolves have lost five of their last nine road games. Justice Hansen is completing 59.3 percent of his passes for 1,324 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. Hansen is coming off a four-touchdown passing performance against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks. Blake Mack and Cam Echols-Luper have combined for 763 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Chris Murray has nine receptions. The Arkansas State Red Wolves ground game is averaging 141.1 yards per contest, and Warren Wand leads the way with 467 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Arkansas State is allowing 26.7 points and 419.1 yards per game. Xavier Woodson-Luster leads the Arkansas State Red Wolves with 54 tackles, Chris Odom has six sacks and Blaise Taylor has two interceptions.


The Georgia State Panthers look for their third home victory of the season to dig out of a rough 2-6 hole. The Georgia State Panthers must win out in order to become bowl eligible. Conner Manning is completing 55.7 percent of his passes for 1,441 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Manning and Aaron Winchester have combined for nine touchdown passes this season. Robert Davis and Glenn Smith have combined for 910 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Todd Boyd has 26 receptions. The Georgia State Panthers ground game is averaging 93.8 yards per contest, and Kyler Neal leads the way with 200 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Georgia State is allowing 23.8 points and 394.5 yards per game. Alonzo McGee leads the Georgia State Panthers with 73 tackles, Mackendy Cheridor has 2.5 sacks and Jerome Smith has three interceptions.


The Red Wolves are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 conference games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November. The Panthers are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November. The under is 14-3 in Panthers last 17 games overall and the over is 20-8 in Red Wolves last 28 games overall.


Arkansas State has been a different team from when the season started and all of a sudden the Red Wolves have a chance to save things and sneak into a bowl game. Georgia State continues to play lousy football and has been hard to back no matter who it plays. Arkansas State has also outscored Georgia State by a combined score of 100-44 in the last two meetings. I have to side with the hot Red Wolves and the reasonable chalk.


RANDY'S PICK
Arkansas State Red Wolves -5

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Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Preview: Oklahoma Sooners (6-2) at Iowa State Cyclones (1-7)


Date: November 03, 2016 7:30 PM EDT


Oklahoma is no stranger to national rankings, where the Sooners reside at No. 12 this week. And contending for a Big 12 title is the norm in Norman. But what is unique for the Sooners somewhat surprisingly is playing a midweek game.


For just the fourth time in the 18-year Bob Stoops era, Oklahoma will play a non-Saturday game when it travels to Iowa State on Thursday night (7:30 p.m., ESPN). It marks just the second time under Stoops that the Sooners, who cruised to a 56-3 victory over Kansas on Saturday, will have played a game with a shortened week. The other time was in 2007 when Oklahoma played Tulsa on a Friday night.


The Sooners' other two non-Saturday games during Stoops' tenure have come with either a bye week immediately preceding (Baylor, 2013) or to start the season (Tulsa, 2001).


"It's challenging to a degree but at this point of the year, it's not like all the sudden you start all over and have a whole new offense and defense," Stoops said.


Stoops did say the coaches started working on a game plan for Iowa State late last week before the Kansas game after they were comfortable with where their team stood in preparations for that game.


The Sooners (6-2, 5-0) usually get Sunday off but had to practice this week to try to get ready for the Thursday trip.


"It's a different mindset, for sure," Oklahoma receiver Mark Andrews said. "Usually you are able to relax and limp around all day. With this practice, you had to bounce back, get your mind right and get over the last game and get ready for a new one."


Offensive tackle Orlando Brown said it's usually not until Tuesday during a week where he feels fully re-energized after a game.


"Fortunately, we didn't have to play the whole game (against Kansas)," Brown said. "There's a bunch of reps right there that were cut out. Obviously guys will still be sore but it's not as bad."


Stoops said he wouldn't address Iowa State's midweek success much with his team. The Cyclones beat previously undefeated Oklahoma State in 2011 on a Friday night and took Texas down to the wire in 2013 before falling 31-30.


"It will be mentioned but not overly because those are different teams," Stoops said. "Those are different coaches at the time, different players at the time. So our focus is mainly on what we can control and that's being our best in how we compete and play."


Stoops also could lean on offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley for changing up preparation for a midweek game. When Riley held the same position at East Carolina, the Pirates often had to play Thursday and Friday games, and he's drawing on that experience this week.


"We went back and looked at what we did at East Carolina and some stuff worked and some stuff didn't so we've changed it up some," Riley said.


On paper it wouldn't seem to make much difference what day the two teams played. The Sooners have won 17 consecutive games in the series, with Iowa State's last win coming in 1990. The Cyclones (1-7, 0-5) haven't beaten the Sooners at home in 22 meetings, with their last win coming in 1960.


Iowa State comes into the contest just five days after a 31-26 home loss to Kansas State. The Cyclones are 10-3 in their last 13 Thursday night games. The first night game at Jack Trice Stadium was on Oct. 20, 1984 and Iowa State nearly pulled off the upset, falling to No. 2 Oklahoma, 12-10, on ESPN.


Iowa State, which has lost four consecutive games since a 44-10 nonconference win over San Jose State on Sept. 24, will have to find a way to slow down an Oklahoma offense that ranks fifth nationally in scoring (45.4) and third in total offense (568.0) to have a chance at pulling the upset.


Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield, who threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-16 win over the Cyclones last year in Norman, has thrown 27 touchdown passes compared to just five interceptions and leads the nation in passing efficiency (195.8) while senior wide receiver Dede Westbrook has had more receiving yards in the last five games (881) than all but 11 FBS players have had in their entire seasons.


Sophomore running back Joe Mixon, who leads the Big 12 and is third nationally with 195.4 all-purpose yards per game, will not play in the game after Stoops announced Tuesday night his top back was suspended. That puts Abdul Adams and Devin Montgomery in line for a bigger workload.

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Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Preview: Bruins (3-5) at Buffaloes (6-2)


Date: November 03, 2016 9:00 PM EDT


Colorado controls its destiny in the Pac-12 South Division.


After Utah lost to Washington while the Buffaloes enjoyed a bye week, 21st-ranked Colorado (6-2, 4-1) is alone in first place in the South heading into Thursday night's home game against UCLA, starting at 9 p.m. ET.


UCLA (3-5, 1-4) was the preseason pick of the league's media to win the division, but the Bruins have struggled in the run game and likely will be without starting quarterback Josh Rosen for a third consecutive game because of a nerve problem in his throwing shoulder.


With a win, the surprising Buffaloes will match their conference victory total from their first five seasons in the league combined.


  Colorado already has accomplished one goal by qualifying for a bowl game for the first time since 2007, but bigger prizes are within reach.


"They've got everything in front of them they've always dreamed of, and they've worked so hard to get here, they don't take it for granted," said Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre. "It's not like it's a common occurrence. ... These guys will stay on each other, which is awesome."


Colorado, which is coming off a 10-5 victory over Stanford on Oct. 22, has three of its final four games at home. Utah and USC, both 4-2 in the conference, are the only realistic challengers to the Buffaloes. Every other team in the South has at least four league losses.


Colorado has great balance. Senior quarterback Sefo Liufau directs an offense that is 19th nationally with 495.8 yards per game. The running game has been strong; the Buffs have rushed for 247, 260, 260, 263, 315 and 224 yards in their six victories, while being held to 64 and 96 in their two losses.


The Buffs defense is 12th nationally, allowing 307.8 yards per game.


UCLA, meanwhile, is trying to find balance after basically abandoning the run game in its most recent game, a 52-45 loss to Utah. The Bruins' running backs carried just 10 times while quarterback Mike Fafaul attempted 70 passes.


"We're always grinding," said offensive coordinator Kennedy Polamalu.


"We've simplified the task, and I really believe with the young men we have all the way around -- from the linemen, tight ends, receivers and the runners -- we're getting better. I really want balance to help our quarterback."


It's not like UCLA doesn't have talent at running back.


Sophomore Soso Jamabo was arguably the top running back prospect in the 2015 class. Nate Starks was a four-star recruit. Bolu Olorunfunmi has done some nice things.


But Jamabo and Starks have each been slowed by injuries a various times, including against Utah. UCLA's top three running backs have rarely been available/healthy at the same time this season.


The Bruins are last nationally in rushing at 85.5 yards per game.


Still, UCLA hasn't been far off this season, losing its five games by a combined 32 points.


"We haven't won, but we haven't been blown out," said Bruins coach Jim Mora. "Our guys fight. They are a bunch of fighters. I really respect that about them."


Fafaul, a fifth-year senior and former walk-on, completed 40 of 70 passes for 464 yards, with five touchdowns and four interceptions, in the loss to Utah on Oct. 22. His focus in practice has been efficiency -- not forcing anything. Fafaul has thrown eight interceptions in 122 pass attempts.


Colorado ranks second in the Pac-12 with 11 interceptions. Cornerback Tedrick Thompson has four of them. The other corner, Chidobe Awuzie, is a potential mid-round draft pick, according to NFLDraftScout.com.


The Buffaloes have held two of five conference foes without a touchdown this season.


Liufau, who missed three starts this season because of an ankle injury, has taken every snap in the past two games. He is riding a school-record streak of 148 consecutive passes without an interception.


Colorado running back Phillip Lindsay is third in the conference with 93.1 rushing yards per game. He has rushed for 350 yards in his past two outings.


"To be able to just watch our running backs break big runs, I know I don't have to do as much," Liufau said. "I don't have to go out there and think that I have to make play after play after play just to keep us in a game."


UCLA's run defense has been good at times this season, but the Bruins allowed Utah's Joe Williams to run wild for 332 yards.


The Bruins have won all five meetings with Colorado in conference play, but the past two were decided by four and three points.


"I think they have been making steady progress with Coach Mac," Mora said. "The last two years, they have been great games. We kind of squeaked them out."

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

NCAAF


Thursday’s games


Buffalo is 0-3 as a road underdog this year, outscored 117-24 in those games- they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as a road dog. Home side won last six Buffalo-Ohio games; Bulls lost last three visits here, by 23-7-17 points. Underdogs covered six of last nine series games. Ohio won five of last six games but is 0-3 vs spread as a home favorite this year, after being 6-2 last two years. Buffalo is 2-6 but upset Akron LW; four of Bulls’ last five losses are by 24+ points. Ohio ran ball for 477 yards in its last two games. MAC home favorites are 4-13 vs spread this spread.


Arkansas State won last three games with Georgia State: 48-34/35-33 at home, 52-10 in last visit here, two years ago. ASU ran ball for 680 yards in last two meetings- they’ve won three games in row after an 0-4 start, winning by 1-10-41 points- they also had two bye weeks in there since the 0-4 start. This is Red Wolves’ first road game since 34-20 loss at Utah State Sept 16; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as a road favorite. Georgia State is 2-6 but covered its last five lined games; they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as a home dog. Sun Belt home dogs are 4-4.


Oklahoma won its last 12 games with Iowa State, covering nine of last 11; Cyclones scored 16 or less points in all 12 games. Sooners covered four of last five visits to Ames. Oklahoma gained 684-751 yards vs ISU last two years. Iowa State is 0-4 in Big X but covered three of four games, losing by 3-7-21-5 points; Cyclones are 2-0 as home dogs this year after being 11-14-1 under the previous coach. Oklahoma scored 49.4 pts/game in winning its last five games after a 1-2 start; Sooners won 52-46/66-59 in their two true road games this year- they also lost at Houston, but that game was NRG Stadium, not the Cougars’ stadium.


Colorado is 7-0 vs spread this year, only perfect spread record in country; they won both Pac-12 home games, 47-6/40-16, are now 8-0 as a home favorite under MacIntyre. UCLA won its last five games with Colorado; Bruins were double digit favorite in all five games- they’re a double digit dog here and QB Rosen is out for year. UCLA won 40-37/42-14 in last two visits to Boulder. Despite losing to Bruins last two years, Colorado did gain 554-500 TY in those games. UCLA lost four of last five games, losing last three by 3-6-7 points- they’re 6-5 as home dogs under Mora, 1-1 this season.

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

StatFox Super Situations


CFB*|*UTSA*at*MIDDLE TENN ST
Play Against - Home favorites (MIDDLE TENN ST) after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games
41-15*over the last 10 seasons.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)
1-1*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.1 units*)


CFB*|*OKLAHOMA*at*IOWA ST
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA) off a home win against a conference rival, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season
111-20*over the last 5 seasons.**(*84.7%*|*0.0 units*)
14-4*this year.**(*77.8%*|*0.0 units*)


CFB*|*FLA ATLANTIC*at*RICE
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (RICE) off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a blowout loss by 35 points or more to a conference rival
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)


CFB*|*TEMPLE*at*CONNECTICUT
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (TEMPLE) off a home win against a conference rival, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season
111-20*over the last 5 seasons.**(*84.7%*|*0.0 units*)
14-4*this year.**(*77.8%*|*0.0 units*)


CFB*|*NAVY*at*NOTRE DAME
Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 50 YPG of their opponents) after 7+ games, in non-conference games
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)


CFB*|*ARKANSAS ST*at*GEORGIA ST
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ARKANSAS ST) off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival
25-8*since 1997.**(*75.8%*|*0.0 units*)
0-2*this year.**(*0.0%*|*0.0 units*)


CFB*|*UCLA*at*COLORADO
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record
46-18*over the last 10 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)


CFB*|*BUFFALO*at*OHIO U
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record
46-18*over the last 10 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)

[TheGame]

Re: NCAAF Betting Info 11/3

Tech Trends - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall


Thursday, November 3


BUFFALO at OHIO... Home team has won and covered easily last three meetings. Note road team has covered last nine Ohio reg.-season games! Leipold 3-10 last 13 on board, also has dropped seven straight vs. line as visitor. Lots of conflicting trends here.


Slight to Ohio, based on recent Buff woes.




ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA STATE...Road team has covered last 3 in series. Though Red Wolves no covers last three away from Jonesboro. GSU has covered last six TY and is 12-2-1 last 15 reg.-season games vs. line, 11-3-1 last 14 as dog.


GSU, based on recent trends.




OKLAHOMA at IOWA STATE...Stoops has crushed last four with wins and covers in each and Cyclones have lost 8 in a row SU vs. Sooners (last ISU win in 2005). But ISU has covered 5 of last 6 TY and is 4-2 as dog, Matt Campbell 14-8 as dog in his career. OU 1-4 last five as chalk away from Norman.


Iowa State, based on recent trends.




UCLA at COLORADO... MacIntyre 8-0 vs. spread TY, now on 13-2 spread uptick since mid 2015. MacIntyre also 3-0 vs. line against Mora since taking over Buffs in 2013. Buffs 14-3 vs. points last 17 at Boulder. More on 2-8 spread skid since late 2015.


Colorado, based on team and series trends.