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Re: Bowl Systems
my list.....
BOWL under better winning % team as a small dog or a favorite (40-87 o/u = Memphis u, Boise u, Wash St u, Stanford u, Missouri u, Cincy u, Ohio St u, Georgia u)
BOWL under big total, decent teams both scoring well on year (44-77 o/u = FIU u, Houston u, Boise u, Duke u, Syracuse u, Wash St u, Nevada u, NCST u, Cincy u, Ohio St u, Georgia u, LSU u)
BOWL similar to above (25-54 o/u = FIU u, Houston u, Boise u, Purdue u, Nevada u, Wash St u, Clemson u, UVA u, NCST u)
BOWL play on December bowl teams with great rush defense last game (73-23 = on Ohio, Toledo, Miami, NCST, Oregon, Missouri)
BOWL play on teams not favored by 3+ scores that were hot before losing their last game as a home fav (33-9 = on Boise, on Wash St)
BOWL oppose teams with far more rest than opponent and big disparity in winning percentage (22-46 = play on Army)
BOWL PLAY ON big dog (7.5+) in december bowl games <.750 vs <.750 teams if opponent didn't cover final regular season game by more than a TD (43-17 = on W Mich)
BOWL OPPOSE power-5 favs of 8+ in december bowl game (16-37 = on Okie St)
vs teams with <8 wins = 6-27 = on Okie St (1-15 L16)
BOWL PLAY ON academies in bowl games vs opponent 8+ wins (16-3 = on Army)
BOWL total <64 with high scoring fav (3-22 o/u = Ohio u, Toledo u, Ohio St u)
BOWL PLAY ON single digit dogs with good defense that ended season poorly (57-27 = on SD St, So Fla, La Tech, BC, Duke, UVA, Pitt)
BOWL PLAY ON favs that won their conf title game and played 28 or less days ago (38-8 = on Buffalo, on Clemson, on Alabama)
BOWL PLAY ON big fav better running team, better run defense, worse or similar WP (37-6 = on Toledo, Temple, Michigan, Clemson, Utah)
BOWL OPPOSE big favs, far worse rushing team but better rush defense (1-16 = play on W Mich, on Oklahoma, on Pitt, on UCF)
BOWL PLAY ON 6-win DEC dogs with no more than 7 days extra rest than opponent who has >6 wins (66-18 = on Minn, Purdue, Okie St)
BOWL OPPOSE bowl team on big ATS streak in a game above 9 (3-16 = play on W Mich)
BOWL PLAY ON bowl favs that won conf champ <29 days ago (41-8 = play on Clemson, on Alabama) = already 4-0 this year
BOWL UNDER with over streaking fav and normal total (3-27 o/u = Ohio St u)
BOWL PLAY ON teams that lost their conf title game by 7 or less playing opponent >60% WP (18-4 = on Buffalo, on Utah, on Georgia)
BOWL OPPOSE fav or small dog with bad defense playing a team that lost their last game (15-50 = play on Marshall, FIU, La Tech, Boise, UVA, Nevada)
BOWL UNDER high scoring fav or small dog with total <67 in bowl or playoffs (6-33 o/u = Ohio u, Toledo u, Houston u, Clemson u, Ohio St u)
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Re: Bowl Systems
Originally posted by elwood View PostPlay on a Bowl team that allows more than 29 points per game on the season, if they are a double-digit dog:
W. Mich +12
Oklahoma +14
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Re: Bowl Systems
Originally posted by elwood View PostBet the dog if they have the same W/L record:
Wisky -- +4
Baylor -- +3.5
Virginia -- +4
Iowa -- +6
Kentucky -- +6
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Re: Bowl Systems
Originally posted by elwood View PostTeams playing their 14th game of the season against a team playing their 13th game of the season (basically the 14th game team played a Championship game, the opponent did not), and are a favorite in a December Bowl game, are 16-27 ATS as well as 25-7 to the under. Most of the 14th game teams playing in December, lost their Championship game, so this becomes a letdown game, while their opponent sees it more as a big game trying to beat a team that played in a Championship game, and as a dog, will be motivated for a much bigger win than their opponent would view it.
Buffalo -2.5
Boise S. -2.5
64-66 ATS all-time
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Re: Bowl Systems
Originally posted by rolltide View Postmy list.....
BOWL under better winning % team as a small dog or a favorite (40-87 o/u = Memphis u, Boise u, Wash St u, Stanford u, Missouri u, Cincy u, Ohio St u, Georgia u)
BOWL under big total, decent teams both scoring well on year (44-77 o/u = FIU u, Houston u, Boise u, Duke u, Syracuse u, Wash St u, Nevada u, NCST u, Cincy u, Ohio St u, Georgia u, LSU u)
BOWL similar to above (25-54 o/u = FIU u, Houston u, Boise u, Purdue u, Nevada u, Wash St u, Clemson u, UVA u, NCST u)
BOWL play on December bowl teams with great rush defense last game (73-23 = on Ohio, Toledo, Miami, NCST, Oregon, Missouri)
BOWL play on teams not favored by 3+ scores that were hot before losing their last game as a home fav (33-9 = on Boise, on Wash St)
BOWL oppose teams with far more rest than opponent and big disparity in winning percentage (22-46 = play on Army)
BOWL PLAY ON big dog (7.5+) in december bowl games <.750 vs <.750 teams if opponent didn't cover final regular season game by more than a TD (43-17 = on W Mich)
BOWL OPPOSE power-5 favs of 8+ in december bowl game (16-37 = on Okie St)
vs teams with <8 wins = 6-27 = on Okie St (1-15 L16)
BOWL PLAY ON academies in bowl games vs opponent 8+ wins (16-3 = on Army)
BOWL total <64 with high scoring fav (3-22 o/u = Ohio u, Toledo u, Ohio St u)
BOWL PLAY ON single digit dogs with good defense that ended season poorly (57-27 = on SD St, So Fla, La Tech, BC, Duke, UVA, Pitt)
BOWL PLAY ON favs that won their conf title game and played 28 or less days ago (38-8 = on Buffalo, on Clemson, on Alabama)
BOWL PLAY ON big fav better running team, better run defense, worse or similar WP (37-6 = on Toledo, Temple, Michigan, Clemson, Utah)
BOWL OPPOSE big favs, far worse rushing team but better rush defense (1-16 = play on W Mich, on Oklahoma, on Pitt, on UCF)
BOWL PLAY ON 6-win DEC dogs with no more than 7 days extra rest than opponent who has >6 wins (66-18 = on Minn, Purdue, Okie St)
BOWL OPPOSE bowl team on big ATS streak in a game above 9 (3-16 = play on W Mich)
BOWL PLAY ON bowl favs that won conf champ <29 days ago (41-8 = play on Clemson, on Alabama) = already 4-0 this year
BOWL UNDER with over streaking fav and normal total (3-27 o/u = Ohio St u)
BOWL PLAY ON teams that lost their conf title game by 7 or less playing opponent >60% WP (18-4 = on Buffalo, on Utah, on Georgia)
BOWL OPPOSE fav or small dog with bad defense playing a team that lost their last game (15-50 = play on Marshall, FIU, La Tech, Boise, UVA, Nevada)
BOWL UNDER high scoring fav or small dog with total <67 in bowl or playoffs (6-33 o/u = Ohio u, Toledo u, Houston u, Clemson u, Ohio St u)Twitter @winningpix1
Last Season NFL 96-71-7 +$3750
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Re: Bowl Systems
PLAY ON later season bowl dog off a fav loss vs opponent off 2+ straight wins, the last win by 6+ (30-5 = on Duke, Nevada, Okie St)
note: 12 straight covers (10-2 SU) including 2 covers last year with ND and Miss St winning outright over LSU and Louisville
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