College Football Betting. Week 12

[TheGame]

College Football Betting Preview: Michigan State at Nebraska
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

Michigan State at Nebraska
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener: Michigan State -3.5 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Michigan State -6 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Michigan State -6
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Michigan State

Major opportunity for Michigan State to put a near stranglehold on the Big Ten’s Legends Division title. The Spartans have obviously ridden their tenacious defense to this point and that group figures to be the focal point for success once again. Nebraska has a huge chance to capitalize on this game as well since a win would put them atop the Legends at 5-1 and in control of their own destiny. They’ve averaged nearly 40 points per game (39.8) in their six home contests thus far but the offense has sputtered lately scoring 23 points or less in their last three games if you subtract the Hail Mary game winner versus Northwestern. The Cornhuskers have not been a home underdog since November 7, 2009 (Bo Pelini’s third season) when they beat #20 Oklahoma outright 10-3 as +4 point dogs. This Saturday’s underdog status will only add to NU’s motivation. Meanwhile, Michigan State has been a profitable road play this season going 2-0-1 and they’ve been tough in divisional games going 2-0 ATS with 12 and 23 point wins over Iowa and Michigan.

Fundamentally this game doesn’t look good on paper for the Nebraska offense. With at least a pair and possibly three starting linemen now out due to injury (LG Jake Cotton now listed as questionable), Michigan State’s front seven appears to own a significant advantage. The Spartans run defense which has allowed a mere 43 yards per game will emphasize shutting down the potent Nebraska ground game and force them into uncomfortable down and distance positions. Nebraska has learned to play without starting QB Taylor Martinez for the better part of the past six weeks but backups Tommy Armstrong and Ron Kellogg have been consistent enough during Big Ten play. The good news for Nebraska is that their defense has started to show improvement allowing just 97 points against league opponents the past five games (19.4 average). With Michigan State owning a very pedestrian offense for the most part this year, Nebraska has a good chance to put forth another solid defensive effort. Last week against Michigan, they had seven sacks and have 11 over their last two games. Michigan State does not match up well through the air against the Cornhuskers pass defense but they may find the ground more accommodating since Minnesota and Northwestern went for 271 and 245 against them.

This game has serious post season implications but these teams are really not that close in current form. Nebraska which is wounded and on a pretty visible descent overall just doesn’t stack up right now with the confidence laden Spartans. Not only has their defense been among the nation’s elite all season, QB Connor Cook and the offense have begun to get a bit of rhythm and balance going as evidenced by their 142 rushing yard, 252 passing yard performance versus Michigan. State is also entering this game off of a bye week so they’ve had extra time to develop and game plan. Nebraska and their fans will be on an emotional high at the start of this one and it’s imperative that the Huskers ride that to an early lead. Playing from behind is likely to be difficult for them against this MSU squad. My power ratings projected Michigan State to open -6 and bettors agreed as early week money pushed this from the -3.5 opener to -6.5 and now its current -6. It could seem tough at first glance to get to the window laying nearly a touchdown on the road with a very average offense but the huge wins over Iowa and Michigan suggest Michigan State will be focused on dismantling another divisional opponent. That said, Michigan State -6 is worth a play.

[TheGame]

College football betting weather report: Saturday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Saturday's matchups:

Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners (-24, 48.5)

There is a 24 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 22 mph.

Indiana Hoosiers at Wisconsin Badgers (-26, 69)

There is an 87 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 14 mph.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini (+32, 65.5)

There is a 47 percent chance of showers in the forecast. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 16 mph.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas Jayhawks (+6.5, 48)

There is a 29 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 23 mph.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Western Michigan Broncos (+2.5, 51)

There is a 44 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 17 mph.

Washington State Cougars at Arizona Wildcats (-11, 66)

Wind will blow across the field at 16 mph.

Connecticut Huskies at SMU Mustangs (-14.5, 56)

Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 20 mph.

Idaho State Bengals at BYU Cougars

Temperatures will be in the low-40s with a chance of snow.

TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas State Wildcats (-11, 46)

Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 20 mph.

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+5.5, 41)

Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 15 mph.

Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildacats (-2.5, 50)

There is a 63 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 17 mph.

Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks (-27.5, 64.5)

There is a 95 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls (+1.5, 40.5)

There is a 56 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.

Colorado State Rams at New Mexico Lobos (+6.5, 65.5)

Wind will blow across the field at 19 mph.

FIU Golden Panthers at UTEP Miners (-6, 47)

Wind will blow across the field at 22 mph.

Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-24, 68.5)

There is a 28 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

[TheGame]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini (+32, 67)

Riding the longest winning streak in the nation, the Buckeyes are ranked No. 3 in the BCS standings and almost certainly cannot catch Alabama or Florida State unless one of those squads lose. Still, Ohio State is having a championship-caliber season that continued its last time out on Nov. 2 with a 56-0 thrashing of Purdue – a game that featured four passing touchdowns by Braxton Miller and three total TDs by his backup, Kenny Guiton.

The Illini might have a chance to snap their Big Ten losing streak next week at Purdue, but it seems unlikely that they will defeat the Buckeyes for the first time since 2007. If Illinois has any shot, it will need a repeat performance from Nathan Scheelhaase, who set career highs with 38 completions and 450 yards last week in a 52-35 defeat to Indiana. Illinois has allowed 34.7 points per game this season.

LINE: Illinois is a 32-point underdog, down from an opening of +33. The total is set at 67, up from 66.5.
WEATHER: There is a 47 percent chance of rain and wind blowing N across the length of the field at 15 mph.
TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Fighting Illini are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Illinois.

Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners (-24, 50)

Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads said he would evaluate everything about his offense - ranked 113th out of 123 FBS teams in yardage - after the season. Freshman quarterback Grant Rohach will make his second straight start but Rhoads wouldn't say if quarterback Sam Richardson (thumb) would be used in running plays like in last week's 21-17 loss to Texas Christian.

Brennan Clay (557 yards, three touchdowns) and Damien Williams (425 yards, five scores) lead the ground game and Oklahoma is 60-1 under head coach Bob Stoops when rushing for more than 200 yards. Freshman linebacker Dominique Alexander has two double-digit tackling performances - including 11 tackles and a sack for a safety against Baylor - in four games since replacing injured Corey Nelson.

LINE: Oklahoma is a 24-point fave, a slight dip from its 24.5-point open. The total is set at 50.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 24 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms.
TRENDS:

* Cyclones are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with winning records.
* Sooners are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring fewer than 20 points in their previous outing.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Central Florida Knights at Temple Owls (+16.5, 56.5)

UCF's Blake Bortles, ranked 10th in passing efficiency (164.1) among FBS quarterbacks, followed up a career-high four touchdown performance over Connecticut with his second-lowest yardage total of the season (210) against Houston, throwing a pick and failing to find the end zone. Wide receiver Breshad Perriman is expected to play against Temple after passing baseline testing following a concussion against the Cougars.

P.J. Walker has helped the Owls revive their offense since taking over as their starting quarterback. Temple, which averaged 15.8 points through its first five games, has seen that figure nearly double to 30.5 in Walker's four starts, with the freshman amassing 1,094 yards on 80-of-128 passing and 11 touchdowns. Linebacker Tyler Matakevich leads all AAC tacklers with 113 on the season.

LINE: Central Florida has held steady as a 16.5-point fave with the total up from 55 to 56.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass.
* Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Temple's last six home games.

Indiana Hoosiers at Wisconsin Badgers (-24, 69.5)

The Hoosiers have the second best offense in the Big Ten behind Ohio State averaging 43.1 points and 527,1 yards per contest. Running backs Tevin Coleman (215), the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, and Stephen Houston (150) both rushed for over 100 yards for the second straight week. Quarterback Nate Sudfeld leads the Big Ten in passing touchdowns with 19.

The Badgers still have their sights set on a possible BCS bowl invite if they can win their final three games (Indiana, at Minnesota, Penn State) and get to 10 wins. Don't bet against them. Since 2006, the Badgers are 24-4 after Nov. 1 (excluding bowl games) and first-year head coach Gary Andersen has won 15 of his last 16 conference games dating back to his Utah State coaching days.

LINE: Wisconsin opened -20.5 but the line has since been bet up to -24. The total is down from 70 to 69.5.
WEATHER: There is an 86 percent chance of showers with wind blowing out of the southeast at 14 mph.
TRENDS:

* Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games.
* Badgers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+5.5, 42)

The Spartans are one of only two teams (Louisville) in the FBS to rank in the top five nationally in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense and pass defense. Michigan State’s defense is allowing 3.47 yards per play and has yielded only 10 rushes of more than 10 yards – both of which are the lowest marks in the country.

The Cornhuskers held Michigan to minus-21 yards rushing and recorded a season-high seven sacks – including three by defensive end Randy Gregory – to boost their conference-leading total to 30. Gregory, who has notched seven of his Big Ten-best 7.5 sacks during league play, was named co-Defensive Player of the Week for his efforts against the Wolverines.

LINE: Michigan State opened -6.5 but has since been bet down to -5.5. The total is 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Spartans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Cornhuskers are 18-4-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.

Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils (+3.5, 61)

The Hurricanes rushed for only 28 yards against Virginia Tech in their first game without standout running back Duke Johnson -- lost for the season with a broken right ankle. That must improve to give a struggling defense more of a break and allow the balance needed for quarterback Stephen Morris, who has 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.

The Blue Devils need better play at quarterback from Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette, who have combined for 15 interceptions – seven the last two weeks by Boone. Whoever is under center will be looking for wide receiver Jamison Crowder, who is second in the ACC in catches per game (7.44) and is 97 shy of his second straight 1,000-yard campaign.

LINE: Miami has been installed as a 3.5-point fave with the total dipping a half-point to 61.
WEATHER: There will be cloudy skies with temperatures in the low-60s.
TRENDS:

* Hurricanes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.
* Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Over is 11-3-1 in Duke's last 15 conference games.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (+3, 62.5)

The Cowboys are set up nicely with an injury-depleted Texas squad on the road and home games against Baylor and rival Oklahoma finishing out the regular season. Head coach Mike Gundy’s squad handily beat Kansas last week, 42-6, as quarterback Clint Chelf passed for season highs of 265 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover.

The Longhorns were left for dead after falling to 1-2 in September but picked themselves back up while rallying behind embattled coach Mack Brown. Texas was already playing through injuries to quarterback David Ash and linebacker Jordan Hicks, but the two latest setbacks could hamper what had been a strong running game while making one of the team’s weaknesses — run defense — an even greater concern.

LINE: OSU has remained a 3-point fave with the total dropping from 63.5 to 62.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their previous contest.
* Longhorns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 7-1 in Texas' last eight November games.

Syracuse Orange at Florida State Seminoles (-37.5, 55.5)

The Orange need one more win to become bowl eligible, but with zero wins over the Seminoles since 1966 and this year's edition looking better than ever, they will likely need to defeat Pittsburgh or Boston College later this month to reach the postseason. Syracuse got two rushing touchdowns and 118 yards from Jerome Smith in last week’s 20-3 triumph against Maryland, while its defense limited the Terrapins to 2.3 yards per carry and forced four turnovers.

The Seminoles clinched the ACC’s Atlantic Division title and a berth in the conference championship game with last week’s win over Wake Forest, a game in which the Seminoles forced seven turnovers, including two returned for scores in a span of 19 seconds. Winston appears destined to be a Heisman Trophy finalist, as the redshirt freshman has racked up 2,661 passing yards with 26 touchdowns on the season.

LINE: FSU opened at -38.5, but the line has been bet down by a point. The total is set at 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Orange are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
* Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on grass.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Florida's last 11 home games.

Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers (-3.5, 64)

Injuries derailed the Bulldogs' high hopes entering the season, but they're inching closer to full strength. Most notably, star running back Todd Gurley (104.2 rushing yards per game) is back in the mix after missing three games with an ankle injury. Georgia's defense has been maligned but actually ranks 20th in the nation against the run (126 yards per game), presenting a favorable matchup against Auburn.

The Tigers' ascent has been spurred by the nation's No. 3 rushing attack at 320 yards per game, and it's not just one player leading it. Tre Mason ranks second in the league with 1,038 rushing yards to go with 16 rushing touchdowns, and quarterback Nick Marshall (734 yards, seven TDs) and running backs Cameron Artis-Payne (568 yards, five TDs) and Corey Grant (504 yards, four TDs) can also do damage on the ground.

LINE: Auburn has held steady as a 3.5-point fave, while the total has risen from 62.5 to 64.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies are in the forecast with temperatures in the low-70s.
TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Over is 7-1 in Georgia's last eight games vs. teams with winning records.

[TheGame]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action

Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks (-26, 64.5)

The Utes have excelled at pressuring the quarterback as they lead the nation in sacks per game (3.67) and their 33 total sacks are second to Missouri’s 34. Defensive end/linebacker Trevor Reilly leads the squad in tackles (78), tackles for loss (13.5) and sacks (seven), and linebacker Jacoby Hale (6.5 sacks) has also been a force.

The Ducks likely had their national championship aspirations extinguished with the 26-20 loss to Stanford as they were stunningly blanked for three quarters before attempting to rally. The season-low output drops Oregon’s scoring average to 51.7 per game – third nationally – and the Ducks now need Stanford to stumble to have any chance of being the North’s representative in the Pac-12 title game.

LINE: Oregon opened as a 25-point fave, but the line has been bet up to -26. The total is currently 64.5.
WEATHER: Rain is in the forecast with temperatures in the low-40s.
TRENDS:

* Utes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference games.
* Ducks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games.
* Over is 13-3-1 in Oregon's last 17 home games vs. teams with losing road records.

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Baylor Bears (-27.5, 85)

Texas Tech, which has lost three straight after a 7-0 start, is averaging 37.8 points and 530.5 yards per game. The Red Raiders are coming off a 49-26 loss to Kansas State, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury isn't sure who will be his starting quarterback against the Bears. Baker Mayfield and Davis Webb, both freshmen, each have started five games.

There's no debate on who will start at quarterback for the Bears. Bryce Petty leads the nation in passing efficiency (210.6) and yards per completion (19.68) and has started popping up on some Heisman Trophy lists. But the Bears also can run the ball, as they're averaging 255 yards on the ground, and will be going up against a Texas Tech defense that surrendered 291 yards rushing in last week's loss to Kansas State.

LINE: Baylor is installed as a 27.5-point fave with the total set at a whopping 85.
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Red Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral-site games.
* Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest.
* Over is 14-2 in Baylor's last 16 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (-12, 41.5)

A season that began with high expectations has fallen victim to the injury bug as the Gators have lost seven starters to season-ending injuries, including quarterback Jeff Driskel, running back Matt Jones and defensive tackle Dominique Easley. If Murphy can’t go because of the shoulder sprain, the job will belong to freshman Skyler Mornhinweg, who has yet to throw a collegiate pass.

The Gamecocks enter Saturday very much alive in the race for a berth in the SEC Championship game. South Carolina needs a win Saturday and for Georgia and Missouri to each just lose once to punch its ticket to Atlanta. The Gamecocks will look to lean on running back Mike Davis, who leads the SEC in rushing yards per game with 117.6.

LINE: South Carolina opened as a 13.5-point fave but is now -12. The total has held at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.
* Gamecocks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.
* The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Houston Cougars at Louisville Cardinals (-15.5, 57.5)

The winner of this matchup and once-beaten Cincinnati likely will be the only teams with a chance to overtake Central Florida, which is unbeaten in conference play. The Cougars are a decided underdog on the road, despite losing at Central Florida by just five points last week. Freshman quarterback John O'Korn didn't play exceptionally well against the Knights, so as he goes, so does Houston.

Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has played well in every game this season, and that's not likely to change against a Cougar defense ranked 30th in points allowed. Strong knows what his quarterback can do, but he believes there are similarities between what Central Florida and Houston do on offense. The Cougars lead the nation with a plus-21 turnover margin, while the Cardinals are second at plus-14.

LINE: Louisville is a 15.5-point favorite - down from an opening of -17 - while the total is holding at 57.5.
WEATHER: There is a 19 percent chance of showers in the forecast with temperatures in the high-50s.
TRENDS:

* Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records.
* Under is 14-6 in Louisville's last 20 home games.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+23.5, 52)

AJ McCarron has not been intercepted in his last 123 passing attempts; he owns the school record at 291 and is in the midst of his third streak of at least 100 consecutive passes without a turnover. Over the past seven contests, the Crimson Tide offense has outgained the opposition by 1,609 yards -- an average of 229.9 yards per game.

Safety Nickoe Whitley posted his 14th career interception against the Aggies, tying him for the most among active FBS players and leaving him two shy of matching the school record (Walt Harris, Johnthan Banks). Jameon Lewis, who has a team-high 39 catches, is the only player in the country with at least four receiving, three rushing and three passing touchdowns.

LINE: Alabama has seen the line dip from 24.5 to 23.5, with the total set at 52.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 10 mph.
TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.

Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (+4, 46)

The Cardinal is ranked No. 4 in the BCS standings, but they’ll need help to land a spot in the national championship game. They certainly appeared worthy in their win over previously unbeaten Oregon, with the offensive line dominating the line of scrimmage and Tyler Gaffney rushing for 157 yards on 45 carries. Coach David Shaw indicated the offense will be more diversified against the Trojans.

Tailback Silas Redd is questionable after suffering a knee injury last week, so the Trojans will likely lean on Javorius Allen against Stanford, which leads the Pac-12 in run defense. Quarterback Cody Kessler has improved since Orgeron took over on Sept. 29, and he’s completed 82 percent of his passes over the last two games. The Trojans rank tied for third nationally in red zone defense.

LINE: Stanford opened at -3 but has seen the line bet up by a point. The total is set at 46.
WEATHER: Skies will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the low-60s.
TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Trojans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings at USC.

Oregon State Beavers at Arizona State Sun Devils (-14, 63.5)

Brandin Cooks has 91 receptions to tie the school mark shared by James Rodgers (2009) and Markus Wheaton (2012), and is nine away from becoming the fifth player in Pac-12 history to reach 100. Cooks has 1,344 yards and 14 touchdown receptions as a top-notch target for quarterback Sean Mannion, who leads the nation with 3,540 yards and is tied for second with 31 touchdowns.

Running back Marion Grice hasn’t scored a touchdown in back-to-back games after finding the end zone 18 times over the first seven games. Grice (12 rushing scores, six receiving) has teamed with multi-purpose quarterback Taylor Kelly (24 passing touchdowns, seven rushing) to fuel an offense averaging 43.7 points per game.

LINE: ASU has held steady as a 14-point fave, while the total has dropped one point to 63.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Beavers are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.
* Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 17-5 in Arizona State's last 22 games following a SU win.

[TheGame]

Where the action is: Bettors all over Wisconsin


The odds for Week 12 of the college football season have been on the move since hitting the boards last weekend. We talk to Aron Black of bet365 about the biggest adjustments to this Saturday’s spreads.


Indiana Hoosiers at Wisconsin Badgers - Open: -20, Move: -27


This week's biggest mover is easily this Big Ten matchup between the Hoosiers and Badgers. At 8-0-1 against the spread, the Badgers are college football's best bet and are 5-0 ATS at Camp Randall Stadium this season, a stat hasn't been lost on bettors.


"Indiana has a good offense, but the big line move is due to the expected absence of RB Tevin Coleman, and obviously the fact that they give up big pts per game," says Black. "Wisconsin needs big margins of victory, so they will definitely be trying to go all out to win by as many as possible. Action has been all over the Badgers."


Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks - Open: -13.5, Move: -12.5


Normally, the Florida Gators are ever-present in SEC and BCS discussions. Not this year. The Gators have been injury riddled virtually all season and the team has struggled, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The defense, however, has been quite formidable.


"The Gamecocks need to win this week to maintain a charge at the SEC title," says Black. "A two-TD fave line wouldn’t have been the forecast coming into the season for this game, but with Florida's injuries, and effectively the only real motivation now is to play spoiler and try not become the first Gator team with a losing record in 34 years. Action has been split on this one, but the Gamecocks see more ATS at a 2-to-1 clip."


Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs - Open: -24.5, Move: -23


Clearly, the No. 1 team in the nation is rolling as Alabama is coming off a big victory over LSU. They have a massive game versus Auburn upcoming, but first, must not look past Mississippi State.


"The Bulldogs have been owned by 'Bama in their last five meetings, and this week shouldn’t be any different," predicts Black. "However, it's often tough for teams to stay playing at a high level when the have come off a big win. The line move is more down to MSU QB Dak Prescott being upgraded, and considered sharp money seems to respect the way they finished against the Aggies last week. But overall, the action is all about 'Bama by a 5-to-1 clip ATS."

[TheGame]

Georgia bettors bleeding money, no thanks to defense


Georgia (6-3 SU, 1-7-1 ATS) hasn't beaten the spread since its 41-30 victory at South Carolina on Sept. 7, going 0-6-1 ATS.


In that stretch, the Bulldogs have twice given up 31 points and twice given up 41 points, while only really holding down FCS victim Appalachian State last week in a 45-6 rout -- barely failing to cover as a 39.5-point chalk. The Bulldogs are at Auburn (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) on Saturday where they will be an underdog for the first time this season.

[TheGame]

Stanford paying off for bettors on the road


Stanford (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) has been a road warrior against the spread the past few seasons, going 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 on the highway. A trip to Southern Cal (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) is on tap Saturday night where Stanford is laying four points.


Look no further than the Cardinal defense to understand why. In its last 11 road games, spanning this season and 2012, Stanford has allowed an average of just 14.6 ppg on the road.

[TheGame]

Michigan State at Nebraska: What bettors need to know

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+5.5, 42)

With its dominant defense, No. 16 Michigan State has climbed atop the Big Ten Legends Division in convincing fashion. In order to remain there, the Spartans must address the one riddle they have been unable to solve on Saturday when they travel to Lincoln to face Nebraska. Michigan State has held its last three opponents to a combined nine points, but is 0-7 all-time against the Cornhuskers – including losses in each of the two-plus seasons Nebraska has been a member of the Big Ten.

The Spartans – who lead the country in total defense, rushing defense and pass efficiency defense – have cruised through conference play thus far, winning each game by at least 14 points. Michigan State savored a well-timed bye week following its home victory over Michigan on Nov. 2. Nebraska also enters this contest with a win over the Wolverines and can pull into a first-place tie atop the division if it can continue its mastery of the Spartans.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2.

LINE: The Spartans opened as 6.5-point faves and are now -5.5. The total has remained 42.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with winds blowing across the field at 12 mph.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (8-1, 5-0 Big Ten): The Spartans are one of only two teams (Louisville) in the FBS to rank in the top five nationally in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense and pass defense. Michigan State’s defense is allowing 3.47 yards per play and has yielded only 10 rushes of more than 10 yards – both of which are the lowest marks in the country. The stellar defensive effort has contributed to the Spartans’ conference-best time of possession (34:32 per game), which also ranks second in FBS.

ABOUT NEBRASKA (7-2, 4-1): The Cornhuskers held Michigan to minus-21 yards rushing and recorded a season-high seven sacks – including three by defensive end Randy Gregory – to boost their conference-leading total to 30. Gregory, who has notched seven of his Big Ten-best 7.5 sacks during league play, was named co-Defensive Player of the Week for his efforts against the Wolverines. Coach Bo Pelini expressed doubt earlier this week when he was asked about injured quarterback Taylor Martinez (foot) returning to the field this season.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Spartans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cornhuskers last five games overall.
* Cornhuskers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Michigan State has held four of its opponents without a touchdown, including each of the last three.

2. Nebraska is 9-1 in Big Ten home games since joining the conference in 2011 and has won four of its last five home games against ranked opponents.

3. The Spartans’ 28-24 loss to the Cornhuskers last season marked the first time they had scored more than 14 in seven all-time meetings

[TheGame]

NCAAF Week 12

Duke is 7-2 and having a dream season, winning last five games since a 58-55 home loss to Pitt; they’re 3-2 SU at home, also losing 38-14 (+8) to Ga Tech; Blue Devils are 6-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 as an underdog- they’ve scored 35+ points in five of last six games. Miami won its last eight games with Duke, six by 10+ points; they’re 4-0 in Durham (2-2 vs spread); Hurricanes are 2-0 as a series favorite when spread was less than 17. Miami was 7-0 before losing to Florida State/Va Tech the last two weeks, giving up 83 points; ‘canes have two road wins, 49-21 (-16) at USF, 27-23 (-9) at North Carolina, and the loss at FSU- they’re 0-4 vs spread in last four games, 2-4 as a favorite this year. ACC home underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.

Houston’s only two losses are 47-46 (+9) at home to BYU, 19-14 (+12) at Central Florida last week; Cougars are 7-1 vs spread this season, 3-0 as underdogs- this is their third road game in four weeks and sixth road game this season. Since 2009, Houston is 6-3 as road underdogs, 2-0 this year (won 49-14 at Rutgers, +7). Louisville is 8-1, losing as a 14-point home favorite to UCF last month; Knights ran ball for 196 yards that game, only team to rush for 60+ yards vs Louisville in last six games. Cardinals are 1-4 vs spread in last five games, but scored 31+ points in each of their last three games. Every Louisville win this year is by 14+ points; they’re 9-12 as home favorites under Strong. AAC home favorites are 3-10 against spread this season.

Home side won seven of last eight Boston College-NC State games; Wolfpack lost last four visits here, losing by 4-32-20-20 points. Favorites are 5-3 in last eight series games. BC needs one more win to be bowl eligible; they won last two games, scoring 82 points. Eagles are 3-1 at home this year, losing only to Florida State, winning by 14-21-7 points. BC is 2-0 as a home favorite this year. NC State lost its last five games, all by 8+ points, after a 1-3 start; they can’t decide on a QB, scoring only 17.8 ppg during losing streak. Wolfpack is 0-1-1 as road dogs this year, losing away games by 15-32-18 points; they’re 1-2-1 overall as underdogs this season. ACC home favorites are 15-9 vs spread this season.

Cincinnati lost 20-3/10-3 to Rutgers the last two years, after stomping Scarlet Knights 69-38 three years ago; Bearcats had 157 combined rushing yards in those two losses, after having 295/168 in previous two series games. Cincy is 7-2 this year because their schedule is horrible; Bearcats won last four games, scoring 35.3 ppg since bizarre loss at a terrible USF team Oct 5. Three of last five Rutgers games were decided by 4 or less points; Knights are 3-1 at home, losing 49-14 to Houston three weeks ago. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Rutgers games this season; Knights are 2-0 as a dog, 5-1 when they allow less than 49 points. AAC home underdogs are 4-3 against spread this season.

Pitt is 5-4 with three games left; they need this game or win at Carrier Dome next week to become bowl eligible, assuming they won’t beat Miami Nov 29. Panthers beat Notre Dame at home last week, their 4th home win in row since Florida State hammered them 41-13 in opener. Will Panthers get fat/happy after beating a mediocre Irish team? North Carolina won its last three games, covered last four; at 4-5, they still have shot at bowl (Belk Bowl in Charlotte?) if they can win two of last three. Backup QB Williams has energized offense with more running. Tar Heels are 1-3 on road (only win at NC State, which is a road trip, but a short bus ride, not a plane trip), losing by 17-8-10 points. ACC home teams are 25-16 against spread this season.

Florida is so banged up at QB that freshman Mornhinweg (son of Jets’ OC) is likely to get first college start here; Gators are 13-3 in last 16 series games, 1-2 in last three (261 or less TY in all three)- they beat Carolina 44-11 LY in odd game where total yardage was 191-183 SC, but Florida was +4 in turnovers. Gators split last four visits to Columbia; underdogs are 4-4 in Florida’s last eight visits here. 7-2 South Carolina had last week off and plays Coastal Carolina next, so they’re focused on avenging LY’s blowout loss; Gamecocks are 2-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 17-0-7-18 points. Florida lost its last four games (0-3-1 vs spread) by 11-19-3-17 points- they lost at home to Vandy last week for first time since 1945; they have to try and run ball to protect their young QB.

Michigan won seven of last eight games with Northwestern, with underdogs covering four of last five; in five of last seven meetings, total yardage was within 40 yards, so Fitzgerald has done excellent job evening talent level with league rivals. Wolverines won last four visits to Evanston, with all four wins by 12+ points, but they’re 1-3 in last four games overall and beat Indiana 63-47 for only win in that span- they scored total of 19 points in losing last two games. Wildcats have trouble finishing games; they’ve lost five games in row, last three all by 7 or less points. Northwestern is 0-5 this season when scoring less than 35 points, losing last two home games to Ohio State (40-30), Minnesota (20-17). Big Dozen home favorites are 12-8 vs spread.

Oregon State won four of last five games with Arizona State, in series where underdog covered four of last five meetings; Beavers lost six of last seven visits to Tempe, with five of six losses by 12+ points. Average total in last three series games: 58.7. ASU pulled game out at end last week in Utah, its fourth win in row since losing to Notre Dame in Dallas; Sun Devils are 3-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 2-21-41-29 points, scoring 50.3 ppg in those four games. Beavers had last week off after losing to Stanford/USC back/back; OSU is 4-0 on road this year, scoring 46.5 ppg and they were only favored in two of those four games. Pac-12 home favorites are 14-8 against the spread this season.

Georgia crushed Auburn 38-0/45-7 last two years, in series where Dawgs won six of last seven meetings (four of six wins by 24+ points) and favorites covered last four; Georgia won three of last four visits here, but 9-1 Tigers are having special season, winning last six games since 35-21 (+17) loss at LSU. Auburn scored 42 ppg in winning last five I-A games, three of which were on road, one at Texas A&M. Tigers are playing for 7th week in row, while Dawgs played I-AA team last week after beating Florida which followed a bye, so they should be getting some guys back. Georgia is 1-2 on road this year, with all three games decided by 4 or less points, with an average total of 65.3. SEC home favorites are 11-12 against the spread.

Texas won 13 of last 15 games with Oklahoma State, but lost last two played here (38-26/33-16), as road team won last four series games; favorites covered 10 of last 13 in series. State outgained Texas 576-440 LY but lost 41-36. Longhorns won last six games, scoring 30+ points every game; they’re 3-1 at home, with only loss to Ole Miss. Longhorns are 2-0 as underdogs this year, beating Oklahoma/TCU SU. OSU won its last five games, scoring 50.7 ppg in last three; they’re 3-1 on road, scoring 50+ at UTSA/Iowa State/Texas Tech, but losing 30-21 at West Virginia, their only loss this season. State covered its last four games; they’re 4-3 as a favorite this season. Big X home underdogs are 6-5 vs spread this year.

Nebraska won both its Big Dozen meetings with Michigan State, 28-24 LY in East Lansing, 24-3 here in ’11, but 8-1 Spartans won last five games, allowing total of nine points in last three, plus they had last week off after spanking rival Michigan 29-6 the week before. State covered four of last five games when favored; none of their eight wins was by less than 12 points. Cornhuskers won last two games by total of seven points, winning on Hail Mary on last play two weeks ago, then holding off impotent Michigan 17-13 last week, its first game as an underdog this year; Nebraska won four of last five games, is 4-1 at home, losing 41-21 to UCLA. Big Dozen home underdogs are 6-5 against the spread.

Stanford won its last four games with USC, with three of four wins by 7+ points; underdogs covered seven of last nine series games, winning three of last six SU. Cardinal won 55-21/56-48 in its last two visits to Coliseum; after scoring 31+ points in each of first five games this year, Cardinals scored 26 or less in its last four, getting upset 27-21 at Utah, its only loss in four road games (wins by 14-38-8 points). Stanford is 4-4 as a favorite this year. USC won its last three games, by 16-17-34 points; they’ve won last four home games since losing to Wazzu on Sept 7. Trojans held three of last four foes to 14 or less points; Cal scored more in 62-28 loss last week. Pas-12 home underdogs are 4-11 against the spread.

Little bit of sandwich game for Arizona, which lost tough 31-26 game to UCLA last week and has Oregon coming to town next week; Wildcats won their last five games with Washington State, last four by average score of 45-15. Coogs lost 48-7/48-20 in their last two visits to Tucson, where Wildcats are 2-1 as home favorites this year, beating UTSA 38-13, Utah 35-24. Wazzu started season strong but has now lost last three games, allowing 52-62-55 points; Coogs are 4-0 vs spread on road, winning at USC/Cal, losing by 7 at Auburn, 24 (+39) at Oregon, but they’ve given up 34-42 points in first half of last two games, giving up 665 rushing yards to Oregon/Arizona State. Pac-12 home favorites are 14-8 against the spread.

[TheGame]

Line Moves - Week 12
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 11 Recap

Favorites: 1-1 (1-1 SU)
Underdogs: 0-3 (0-3 SU)
Totals: 3-2

There wasn’t a lot of movement last week and it sort of makes sense after looking at the results. The professional players making the first play last week went 1-4 against the spread, which included a straight up loss on Florida, who lost outright at home to Vanderbilt. The pros did catch a “Bad Beat” on West Virginia, which was the right side. The Mountaineers opened at 8 ½-point home underdogs and were bet down to 4 ½ on Friday. Public money pushed the number back to 6 ½-points on Saturday evening and the Longhorns captured a 47-40 win in overtime. The aforementioned professionals love to play middles like this and I’m sure plenty of them cashed both ways.

The totals went 3-2 last week and is now 4-2 (67%) the past two weeks. All three winners were never in doubt, especially the Texas A&M-Mississippi State affair. That number was steamed up four points to 71 and the pair still combined for 91 points.

Week 12 Line Moves

CRIS, one of the biggest offshore sportsbooks, opened up their college football lines for Week 12 last Sunday. Below are all of the moves of at least “Three Points” or more off the opening line from CRIS.

Favorites

Wisconsin vs. Indiana
Open: Badgers -18½
Friday: Badgers -26½

Make a note that Hoosiers RB Tevin Coleman (ankle) is ‘doubtful’

Florida Atlantic at Southern Mississippi

Open: Owls -14
Friday: Owls -17

East Carolina vs. UAB
Open: Pirates -25
Friday: Pirates -28

Baylor vs. Texas Tech
Open: Bears -24½
Friday: Bears -27½

Boise State vs. Wyoming
Open: Broncos -20
Friday: Broncos -24

Underdogs

Rutgers vs. Cincinnati
Open: Scarlet Knights +3
Friday: Scarlet Knights -1

Northwestern vs. Michigan
Open: Wildcats +1
Friday: Wildcats -3

Week 12 Total Moves

CRIS opened their ‘over/under’ numbers on Tuesday. Five games saw significant movement and they're listed below.

Connecticut at SMU
Open: 59
Friday: 55½

West Virginia at Kansas
Open: 50
Friday: 46½

Iowa State at Oklahoma
Open: 51
Friday: 48

Michigan at Northwestern
Open: 52½
Friday: 49

San Diego State at Hawaii
Open: 55
Friday: 58½

[TheGame]

Georgia at Auburn
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Matchup: Georgia at Auburn
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium from Auburn, Alabama
Date: Saturday, Nov. 16, 2013
Time/TV: 3:30 pm. ET - CBS
Line: Auburn -3½, Over/Under 64
Last Meeting: 2012, Georgia (-15½) 38 at Auburn 0

Amid the rush to make Alabama vs. Florida State the official matchup for the final BCS Championship Game in January, there’s a team that’s quietly been going about its business. This squad controls its own destiny to win an SEC Championship.

It has a new head coach, one that helped lead it to its last national championship just three years ago. This team resides on The Plains and plays at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

I’m obviously talking about the Auburn Tigers, who had a nightmare season in 2012 and fired their head coach less than two years after he led the school to its first national title since the 1950s.

Guess what? The school made the right move in handing Gene Chizik a pink slip. The real leader from a coaching standpoint on that 2010 team was the offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, whose name sits next to Missouri’s Gary Pinkel at the top of every list pertaining to national Coach of the Year candidates in 2013.

When Malzahn left to take the Arkansas St. head-coaching job following the 2011 campaign, Auburn’s fortunes headed south immediately. Upon his return, everything has gone right for AU.

If Malzahn can guide his team to a win over Georgia on Saturday afternoon, the 2013 Iron Bowl will also be the SEC West Division Championship Game. And the Tigers will be at home Saturday and when it takes on the Crimson Tide.

As of early Friday night, most betting shops had Auburn (9-1 straight up, 8-2 against the spread) listed as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 64. Gamblers can take UGA on the money line for a +145 return (risk $100 to win $145). For first-half bets, AU is favored by two with a total of 31½.

Auburn went to Neyland Stadium last weekend and dealt out woodshed treatment to Tennessee in the form of a 55-23 clubbing. The Tigers took the cash for the seventh straight game.

Nick Marshall was the catalyst in Knoxville. The junior quarterback ran for 214 yards and two touchdowns and also threw for a score. But the Tigers threw the ball just seven times all day because the Volunteers couldn’t stop their ground attack. Tre Mason ran for 117 yards and three TDs.

Mason has run for 1,038 yards and 16 TDs this year. Marshall has 734 rushing yards and seven TDs. Mason and Marshall are averaging 5.9 and 7.1 yards per carry, respectively.

Marshall is completing 58.5 percent of his attempts for 1,301 passing yards. He has an 8/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sammie Coates is his favorite target and he’s hauled in 26 receptions for 648 yards and five TDs.

Since suffering its lone loss by a 35-21 count at LSU in Week 4, Auburn has won six in a row with four of those wins coming by margins of 18 points or more. During the six-game winning streak, Auburn has covered the spread by at least 8.5 points each time out.

Georgia (6-3 SU, 1-7-1 ATS) is mired in a 0-6-1 ATS slump. The Bulldogs haven’t covered a number since a Week 2 home win over South Carolina.

Mark Richt’s team was the favorite to win the SEC East, but it has to win Saturday and have a lot of other things go right to return to Atlanta this season.

UGA’s demise actually started in a game it won at Tennessee. The Bulldogs pulled it out in overtime thanks to the heroics of senior QB Aaron Murray, but they’ve yet to find the form they had before a rash of injuries hit in the second half against the Vols.

Some of the injured that day, like WR Michael Bennett and safety Tray Matthews, have returned. Some, like RB Keith Marshall and Justin Scott-Wesley, are out for the season.

RB Todd Gurley, who missed three games after spraining his ankle in the first half of a 44-41 win over LSU, came back and led UGA to a 23-20 win over Florida two weeks ago. Gurley scored a pair of first-quarter touchdowns to put the Gators in comeback mode for the rest of that game.

However, after missing so much time, Gurley was winded early and often against UF. He rushed just 13 times for 75 yards in last week’s 45-6 non-covering win over Appalachian St. My point is that Gurley’s conditioning isn’t back to where it was going into the LSU game, and Marshall isn’t around to help shoulder the load.

But UGA still has Murray, who has thrown for 2,477 yards with a 20/7 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs’ leading receiver, Chris Conley, is going to be a game-time decision after missing the victory over the Mountaineers. Conley has a team-high 30 catches for 418 yards and four TDs.

For the season, Gurley has rushed for 625 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC. He also has a pair of TDs receiving.

Georgia has won the last two meetings against Auburn by a combined score of 83-7. The Bulldogs cruised to a 38-0 win over AU last season as 15 ½-point road favorites.

Totals have been an overall wash for Auburn (5-5) this year, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in its home games. The Tigers’ games have played to an average combined score of 59.0 points per game.

The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for UGA, 2-2 in its four previous road assignments. The Bulldogs’ games have averaged a combined score of 64.3 PPG. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

[TheGame]

Pac-12 Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

The Pac-12 kicked off the schedule with a tussle between UCLA and Washington Friday night. That is the undercard for the main event which is Stanford-Southern California in the Los Angeles Coliseum in prime time. While USC might not be ranked in the AP Top 25, they have been playing better than anyone in the country lately, and this should be a knock-down, drag-out fight.

Another game of interest is the late-night game between Oregon State and Arizona State. This should be a high-scoring affair with plenty of aerials. Both QB Sean Mannion of the Beavers and QB Taylor Kelly of the Sun Devils can sling it with the best of them, and that could very well be a game with numbers resembling a video game when the dust clears Saturday night. Enjoy!

Washington State at Arizona

The Cougs roll into Tucson looking to keep their slim postseason aspirations alive. While the wins might not be piling up in the standings, there have been plenty of covers for bettors when it comes to WaZu. The Cougs are 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games against a team with a winning record. They're also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games overall, and 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 games following an ATS loss. On the flip side, Arizona has failed to cover in five of its past seven conference tilts, and they're just 2-6 ATS in the past eight home games against a team with a losing road record. Still, it's awfully hard to trust Washington State, as they aren't the best at stopping the run, allowing a whopping 7.9 yards per carry. That has Arizona RB Ka'Deem Carey, one of the best in the nation, licking his chops.

Utah at Oregon

The Utes head to Eugene looking to slay Goliath, but that's a pretty tall order. Utah has been night and day as a team at home as compared to on the road. The Utes are just 1-5 ATS in the past six road games, and 2-7 ATS in their past nine conference tilts. Oregon is still smarting from a spanking at the hands of Stanford last time out, and it could be ugly for the Utes as the Ducks take out their aggression. Oregon is still 14-3 ATS in their past 17 games overall, and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 conference battles. They're also 33-16-2 ATS in the past 51 games against a team with a losing record.

Stanford at Southern California

Stanford heads to the Coliseum for one of the most anticipated games in all of college football this weekend. Lately, Stanford has had its way with USC, especially as far as the books are concerned. Stanford is 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to Los Angeles, and 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. In addition, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight battles in this series, while the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall. All trends appear to point to Stanford, except for the latter. In addition, the Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a winning road record.

Oregon State at Arizona State

This game has the potential to be a shootout, with plenty of offensive stars dotting the rosters of the two sides. QB Sean Mannion and WR Brandin Cooks have been a dynamic duo, and TE Connor Hamlett is a weapon, as are RBs Storm Woods and Terron Ward. The Sun Devils have one of the best, and most underrated quarterbacks in Taylor Kelly. In fact, the AZ State passing offense is racking up 490.4 yards per game through the air. Oregon State is 21-9-1 ATS in their past 31 road games, and 15-6-1 ATS in their past 22 road outings against a team with a winning home record. For AZ State, they're 6-1 ATS in their past seven home games, and 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning road record. In this series, the Beavers are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four meetings, but 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight meetings in Tempe.

Other Games

California at Colorado

[TheGame]

ACC Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

We're heading toward the finish line in the Atlantic Coast Conference. In fact, Clemson and Georgia Tech kicked off the weekend Thursday, and the Tigers blitzed the Yellow Jackets in the second half for a cover and win. The Tigers are now done with their conference portion of the schedule, with only games against The Citadel and South Carolina remaining. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech suffered a tough blow to their chances in the Coastal Division race.

The biggest game, incredibly enough, is the Miami-Duke battle at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham. Who would have thought that at the beginning of the season. The Hurricanes have slipped back to the pack, and good things are within reach for the Blue Devils if they can get it done on the field. That will be the big game to watch, as we figure out if Miami can get untracked, and if Duke is for real.

North Carolina State at Boston College

The Eagles are going to be a popular pick this week, at least for trend bettors. First off, NC State is just 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 2-8-1 ATS in their past 11 road contests. They have also failed to cover in each of their past six outings on fieldturf. Meanwhile, BC is 4-0 ATS in their past four home games and 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC contests. However, they have managed a rather meager 8-17 ATS mark at home against visitors with a losing road record, and 7-22 ATS in their past 29 against sub-.500 teams overall. Still, the home team is 8-0 ATS in the past eight meetings, and NC State is 0-4 ATS in their past four forays into Chestnut Hill. BC is playing better ball, and they have the three-headed monster of QB Chase Rettig, RB Andre Williams and WR Alex Amidon, which can be hard to contain.

North Carolina at Pittsburgh

Tar Heels head coach Larry Fedora was under considerable fire and scrutiny for the team's early-season slump. After a 1-5 start, UNC has come storming back to the precipice of .500 and bowl eligibility. Credit North Carolina for not quitting, and Fedora for not letting his team hang its head. In fact, the team has a little bit of swagger back, and heads up to the Steel City with an attitude. UNC is 4-0 ATS in the past four games, and 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC outings. Still, they need to prove they can win on the road. They're just 2-8 ATS in the past 10 road games, and 1-7 ATS in the past eight road games against a team with a winning home record. Pitt is 10-2-2 ATS in the past 14 against a team with a losing record, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a losing road record. They are flying high after dropping Notre Dame last weekend. The 'under' might be the thing to focus on here. The under is 5-0 in UNC's past five road games, and 4-1 in their past five against a team wtih a winning record. The under has cashed in six straight for Pittsburgh after the over hit in their first three contests, and the under is 7-3 in their past 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. The line is set at 53, and that's looking awfully good.

Miami, Fl. at Duke

Originally when I set my schedule of games to attend this season, I never expected Miami-Duke would have such heavy postseason implications. This is a historic season at Duke, as they have knocked off a ranked opponent, become bowl eligible for the second straight season for the first time in school history, and they are pushing for a spot in the ACC Championship Game. If they can beat the Hurricanes, they will be able to take one giant step toward fulfilling those dreams. Miami started out 7-0, but they were outclassed by Florida State and surprised last week by Virginia Tech in a maelstrom in South Florida. Now, they're just trying to save their season from crumbling, and get back into the major bowl game picture. Miami has failed to cover in four straight, but they are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 road games, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Duke is 12-5 ATS in the past 17 home games, and 4-0 ATS in their past four overall. The Blue Devils defense has been superb, but do they really have the horses to hang with the speedy Hurricanes? If so, a ranking in the AP Top 25 might be in store.

Syracuse at Florida State

The Seminoles have done a good job managing to stay focuses, and not let their heads get too big even after dismantling Clemson and Miami in pre-hyped games. Now, the focus turns to an off-field issue, as QB Jameis Winston made headlines this week after having his name included in a sexual assault complaint from Dec. 2012. The report seems a little sketchy, but the facts are still coming out. Still, can Winston and the Seminoles keep their eye on the prize? They're favored by 38 heading into the weekend against an Orange team which has ascended to the middle of the pack in the ACC. In fact, Syracuse is 10-3 ATS in the past 13 games dating back to last season, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven against winning teams. Still, they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips against a team with a winning home record. And, Florida State has been a machine. They're 5-1 ATS in the past six home games, and 4-0 ATS in their past four home games against a team with a winning road record.

[TheMule]

EVERY talking head I've watched over the last two days is picking Texas to win SU... looking at OSU