College Football Betting Preview: Michigan State at Nebraska
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Michigan State at Nebraska
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener: Michigan State -3.5 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Michigan State -6 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Michigan State -6
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Michigan State
Major opportunity for Michigan State to put a near stranglehold on the Big Ten’s Legends Division title. The Spartans have obviously ridden their tenacious defense to this point and that group figures to be the focal point for success once again. Nebraska has a huge chance to capitalize on this game as well since a win would put them atop the Legends at 5-1 and in control of their own destiny. They’ve averaged nearly 40 points per game (39.8) in their six home contests thus far but the offense has sputtered lately scoring 23 points or less in their last three games if you subtract the Hail Mary game winner versus Northwestern. The Cornhuskers have not been a home underdog since November 7, 2009 (Bo Pelini’s third season) when they beat #20 Oklahoma outright 10-3 as +4 point dogs. This Saturday’s underdog status will only add to NU’s motivation. Meanwhile, Michigan State has been a profitable road play this season going 2-0-1 and they’ve been tough in divisional games going 2-0 ATS with 12 and 23 point wins over Iowa and Michigan.
Fundamentally this game doesn’t look good on paper for the Nebraska offense. With at least a pair and possibly three starting linemen now out due to injury (LG Jake Cotton now listed as questionable), Michigan State’s front seven appears to own a significant advantage. The Spartans run defense which has allowed a mere 43 yards per game will emphasize shutting down the potent Nebraska ground game and force them into uncomfortable down and distance positions. Nebraska has learned to play without starting QB Taylor Martinez for the better part of the past six weeks but backups Tommy Armstrong and Ron Kellogg have been consistent enough during Big Ten play. The good news for Nebraska is that their defense has started to show improvement allowing just 97 points against league opponents the past five games (19.4 average). With Michigan State owning a very pedestrian offense for the most part this year, Nebraska has a good chance to put forth another solid defensive effort. Last week against Michigan, they had seven sacks and have 11 over their last two games. Michigan State does not match up well through the air against the Cornhuskers pass defense but they may find the ground more accommodating since Minnesota and Northwestern went for 271 and 245 against them.
This game has serious post season implications but these teams are really not that close in current form. Nebraska which is wounded and on a pretty visible descent overall just doesn’t stack up right now with the confidence laden Spartans. Not only has their defense been among the nation’s elite all season, QB Connor Cook and the offense have begun to get a bit of rhythm and balance going as evidenced by their 142 rushing yard, 252 passing yard performance versus Michigan. State is also entering this game off of a bye week so they’ve had extra time to develop and game plan. Nebraska and their fans will be on an emotional high at the start of this one and it’s imperative that the Huskers ride that to an early lead. Playing from behind is likely to be difficult for them against this MSU squad. My power ratings projected Michigan State to open -6 and bettors agreed as early week money pushed this from the -3.5 opener to -6.5 and now its current -6. It could seem tough at first glance to get to the window laying nearly a touchdown on the road with a very average offense but the huge wins over Iowa and Michigan suggest Michigan State will be focused on dismantling another divisional opponent. That said, Michigan State -6 is worth a play.
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com
Michigan State at Nebraska
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener: Michigan State -3.5 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Michigan State -6 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Michigan State -6
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Michigan State
Major opportunity for Michigan State to put a near stranglehold on the Big Ten’s Legends Division title. The Spartans have obviously ridden their tenacious defense to this point and that group figures to be the focal point for success once again. Nebraska has a huge chance to capitalize on this game as well since a win would put them atop the Legends at 5-1 and in control of their own destiny. They’ve averaged nearly 40 points per game (39.8) in their six home contests thus far but the offense has sputtered lately scoring 23 points or less in their last three games if you subtract the Hail Mary game winner versus Northwestern. The Cornhuskers have not been a home underdog since November 7, 2009 (Bo Pelini’s third season) when they beat #20 Oklahoma outright 10-3 as +4 point dogs. This Saturday’s underdog status will only add to NU’s motivation. Meanwhile, Michigan State has been a profitable road play this season going 2-0-1 and they’ve been tough in divisional games going 2-0 ATS with 12 and 23 point wins over Iowa and Michigan.
Fundamentally this game doesn’t look good on paper for the Nebraska offense. With at least a pair and possibly three starting linemen now out due to injury (LG Jake Cotton now listed as questionable), Michigan State’s front seven appears to own a significant advantage. The Spartans run defense which has allowed a mere 43 yards per game will emphasize shutting down the potent Nebraska ground game and force them into uncomfortable down and distance positions. Nebraska has learned to play without starting QB Taylor Martinez for the better part of the past six weeks but backups Tommy Armstrong and Ron Kellogg have been consistent enough during Big Ten play. The good news for Nebraska is that their defense has started to show improvement allowing just 97 points against league opponents the past five games (19.4 average). With Michigan State owning a very pedestrian offense for the most part this year, Nebraska has a good chance to put forth another solid defensive effort. Last week against Michigan, they had seven sacks and have 11 over their last two games. Michigan State does not match up well through the air against the Cornhuskers pass defense but they may find the ground more accommodating since Minnesota and Northwestern went for 271 and 245 against them.
This game has serious post season implications but these teams are really not that close in current form. Nebraska which is wounded and on a pretty visible descent overall just doesn’t stack up right now with the confidence laden Spartans. Not only has their defense been among the nation’s elite all season, QB Connor Cook and the offense have begun to get a bit of rhythm and balance going as evidenced by their 142 rushing yard, 252 passing yard performance versus Michigan. State is also entering this game off of a bye week so they’ve had extra time to develop and game plan. Nebraska and their fans will be on an emotional high at the start of this one and it’s imperative that the Huskers ride that to an early lead. Playing from behind is likely to be difficult for them against this MSU squad. My power ratings projected Michigan State to open -6 and bettors agreed as early week money pushed this from the -3.5 opener to -6.5 and now its current -6. It could seem tough at first glance to get to the window laying nearly a touchdown on the road with a very average offense but the huge wins over Iowa and Michigan suggest Michigan State will be focused on dismantling another divisional opponent. That said, Michigan State -6 is worth a play.
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