2022 CFB Championship odds

[Thomas]

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[Chazbo]

Anyone have any spider sense tingling?
I'm going with Michigan 7/1, everything is fallen into place to the finals but Georgia might win it all.

[BT]

How can Bama be the 2nd best odds? They have to play Georgia this weekend. Do they even make the playoffs if they lose that game?

[Riderx]

How can Bama be the 2nd best odds? They have to play Georgia this weekend. Do they even make the playoffs if they lose that game?

BT,

If the SEC Champ game is close, I believe Bama still gets in even if they lose. It's the nature of the beast of the CFP committee.

That line of Georgia -6' is not a confident line on the Bulldogs. Saban has an ungodly record against his previous assistant coaches and has lost s/u only one. It happened earlier this year @ A&M, by 3 pts.
The Tide looked like they were sleep-walking last week vs Auburn...totally unfocused & dis-interested. Kirby Smart has snakes in his head vs. Bama.

Really looking forward to this game.

[BT]

I hear you, Rider. I follow Bama religiously (most of the SEC too) so I'm up on the history. But damn, it's a different animal this year. I still can't believe that the Dawgs are only 6.5 point favs. It seems like such an easy bet. That's the only reason I haven't put money down yet - just seems too easy. Bama has NO offensive line (other than their LT) and only 1 healthy scholarship RB, who hasn't played that much this year. Not sure how they handle GAs front 7. Saban has been doing his best to keep this team mentally alive - and it's been masterful - but they just aren't good like lots of his other teams. The D might be able to keep them in this one. Who knows? Saban has been tinkering with the O line this week so maybe they find the right combination up front to give Young some time to throw downfield - which is how you have to beat Georgia. But I just don't see it. And like you noted, the not losing to his assistants streak ended. No reason to think that Kirby can't be next. He plays Bama great every season, up until the 2nd half! Maybe he has a complete game tomorrow. Bama squeaked by Ark, LSU, Auburn and Florida ... and as you said, lost to A&M. The Dawgs are a whole different class. Even Bennett has been tremendous at QB. Either way, hope it's a good game. Close enough to keep ND out even if OK St loses. Join a conference, ND, and play a championship game!!! It's not like you played an SEC schedule!! :) :)

Are you taking Bama with points are riding with your home Dawgs?!?

[Riderx]

BT,

I'm a Vol fan & I bleed orange (actually, kinda' mocha color due to all the coffee I drink...LOL), but my Vols have been sucking hind tit for two decades now. This is my second stint living in Huntsville, AL. & have lived here for almost a combined total number of years as I did in the Atlanta area, so I've been living behind enemy lines for almost four decades. Don't have a horse in this race but as a fan of the game I want to see Georgia win all the way through the national championship & represent the SEC, but they still have to earn it.

There are two things that concern me about this Geo/Ala game:

1) Everybody & there sister, mother & brother are on the Dawgs-6'...77% of bets & 83% of $$$...that's massive:

https://www.scoresandodds.com/ncaaf/consensus-picks

2) Bama as a neutral site conf dog of a road game at Auburn:

http://gimmethedog.com/NCAAFB?q=team...%20and%20p%3AA

2-0 s/u...'99 vs Fla, '09 vs Fla...now '21 vs Geo

The big shocker are the stats:

Ala avg 53 rushes, avg 251 rushing yards!!!, only avg 18 passes but avg 239 passing yards!!!
Opp avg 14 rushes, avg 88 passing yards!!!, avg 35 passes for avg 247 passing yards...
&
Bama had 0 turnovers!!!

Hang on a minute...Utah just had a pick-6 vs Er'gon...up 14-0)

I think I just talked myself into Bama +6'...gotta' chew on it a minute...might have to look at alternate lines & player ops...

[Riderx]

BT,

Okay...took a break, went out & got something to eat...cleared my mind & giving a fresh look...

Alabama +6' looks too easy...favs do well in major conf champ...sometimes the major consensus is right

Going against 'Bama:

http://gimmethedog.com/NCAAFB?q=mont...p%3Aline%3C-11

0-6 s/u
1-4-1 ats
0-5 o/u

This one has the line really, really tight...+/- .5 either way:

http://gimmethedog.com/NCAAFB?q=mont...nd%20week%3C15

0-2 s/u
1-1 ats...+.5, -.5
0-2 o/u

Georgia to win s/u & probably knock Alabama out of the CFP with 2 losses

Under 49'

BOL!!!

[Chamblin]

[BT]

Rider - great stuff as usual. And all really on point. Tennessee?!? I don’t know how you wear that “gaudy orange!”

I agree with your call. I guess for me it’s just the fact that Bama has been a near disaster this year. Could’ve lost multiple games. Georgia is a more complete team than anyone Bama has played.

couple that with the fact that the Tide’s D allows way to May drives to end in points and has a bad red zone D ranking.

Finally, the only way I see Bama hanging in this game is for them to attack with mid- to deep passes. Young will routinely get the ball out in under 2 seconds, under 1.5 seconds often. Not sure how they attack mid- to deep with the ball coming out that quickly. So the game will be played primarily against Georgia’s front 7. Not good. Oh, and did I mention that Georgia is that much better overall!! Good luck today!

Sorry to take your thread in a different direction, Tom!

[rolltide]

systems and trends.... unfortunately since dbases aren't showing good accurate info some of the ATS numbers are not available but a couple interesting things to review

Marc Lawrence = teams like App State that lost to this same opponent who have a >90% WP are 0-15 SU with 12 ATS losses. This also applies to fading Baylor

UNDER neutral site game where total dropped at least 2.5 points (21-38 ou = BAY/OSU under)
ON away in b2b away games on big winning streak, total<54 (246-151 +121% = on HOU)

CHAMP PLAY ON dog in champ game with winning % <16% diff than the fav who did not win 10+ games last year (but wasn't winless) and and fav of 17+ (on ALA, on ULL, on WFU, on BAY, on HOU, on IOWA)
- best if home or neutral (drops HOU only)
- best if dog >=.500 LY in regular season (on ALA, ULL, WFU, IOWA)

CHAMP OPPOSE unbeaten favs of 6.5-17.5 points (on ALA, HOU)

CHAMP OPPOSE fav or dog<3.5 with 12+ wins, opponent 7+ wins, and both off a win (on ALA, HOU)

my personal fav (is like 20-1 ATS):
CHAMP PLAY ON dog off a loss in a game they weren't favored by 12+ and opponent wasn't just favored by 19+ (on NIU)

[vern]

the goal in setting a line is to get even money, no?

i dont care if uga was 50-0, nobody has given bama 7 in 20 years. you can't get to even $ doing that. the entire state of alabama would be at the sportsbook. right or wrong.

i think giving 6.5 so you can buy 7 is the ultimate & deserved respect here. the real line is probably 12. were they gonna post that??

its not math here - its the roll tide factor