College Football Betting Info. Week 2

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Re: College Football Betting Info. Week 2

Michigan State at Oregon
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Matchup: Michigan State at Oregon
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Date: Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014
Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: Oregon -12, Over/Under 56

The marquee matchup of Week 2 will take place at Autzen Stadium in Eugene where Oregon (1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) will play host to Michigan State. This is a great opportunity for both schools to get a resume-building victory, while the loser will have plenty of time to recover and can still get to the College Football Playoff.

As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Oregon favored by 12 or 12.5 with a total of 56. Gamblers can take the Spartans on the money line for a +350 return (risk $100 to win $350).

Mark Helfrich's team rolled to a 62-13 season-opening win over South Dakota last week, but the Ducks failed to cover the enormous 52-point spread. The 75 combined points went 'over' the 71.5-point total with 9:21 remaining.

Marcus Mariota completed 14-of-20 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. The Heisman Trophy candidate ran six times for 43 yards and another score. Byron Marshall had eight carries for 90 yards while also catching eight balls for 132 yards and a pair of TDs. Royce Freeman, the Ducks' top recruit in the 2014 class, had 10 carries for 75 yards and a pair of TDs, including a 26-yard TD scamper midway through the second quarter.

Michigan State (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) cruised past Jacksonville St. by a 45-7 count as a 34-point home 'chalk' in its opener last Friday (note the extra day of rest that should compensate for the day of travel). Connor Cook connected on 12-of-13 throws for 285 yards and three TDs without an interception. Nick Hill rushed for a pair of scores and Tony Lippett finished with four catches for 167 yards and two TDs.

This is the 15th straight game in which Oregon has been favored by a double-digit margin. The Ducks cashed tickets at an 8-5 ATS clip last season.

Michigan St. owns a 10-6 spread record as a road underdog during Mark Dantonio's eight-year tenure. The last time the Spartans were double-digit 'dogs was at Notre Dame in 2009, when they covered the number in a nail-biting 33-30 loss to the Fighting Irish as 10-point puppies. Sparty owns a 2-1 ATS ledger in three games as a double-digit 'dog on Dantonio's watch.

Whether at home or on the road or at a neutral site, Michigan St. has taken the cash in eight consecutive underdog situations, winning outright in five of those spots. Going back to October of 2011, the Spartans are 10-1 ATS with six outright victories in their last 11 games as 'dogs.

Both teams will play without a pair of expected starters. Oregon's Bralon Addison, who had 61 receptions for 890 yards and seven TDs, remains out after tearing his ACL in the spring. Addison was a second-team All Pac-12 selection last year. Another All Pac-12 second-teamer, OT Tyler Johnstone, was lost to a season-ending ACL tear in August.

Sparty won't have nose tackle Damon Knox or OG Connor Kruse.

Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets

Cook has a 26/7 career TD-INT ratio.

Baylor WR Levi Norwood is out for at least three weeks after suffering a wrist injury that will require surgery. Norwood, who had 47 receptions for 733 yards and eight TDs in 2013, hopes to return for the Bears' next tough game -- at Texas on Oct. 4. Baylor will also be without Antwan Goodley (quad) this week against Northwestern St. Goodley had a team-high 71 catches for 1,339 yards and 13 TDs last season.

Most spots have South Carolina favored by 16.5 over East Carolina. The Gamecocks are 26-20 ATS as home favorites during Steve Spurrier's tenure, while the Pirates are 5-10 ATS as road underdogs under Ruffin McNeill.

East Carolina QB Shane Carden has a 59/20 career TD-INT ratio. He's poised to overtake David Garrard as ECU's all-time leader in passing yards later this year. Carden has a big-time WR in Justin Hardy, who is already the Pirates' all-time leader in receiving yards. This combo will pose another tough challenge for a South Carolina secondary that got torched by Texas A&M last week.

A pair of former Gator QBs led their new teams to victories last weekend. Boston College's Tyler Murphy completed 17-of-24 passes for 173 yards with one TD and one interception. He also rushed 13 times for 118 yards and one score in the Eagles' 30-7 win at Massachusetts as 17-point road favorites. Jacoby Brissett, who sat out last season after transferring from Florida, sparked North Carolina St. to a 24-23 come-from-behind win over Ga. Southern. Brissett connected on 28-of-40 throws for 291 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio.

One of the biggest stars of Week 1 was Rutgers RB Paul James, who looked like a beast in the Scarlet Knights' 41-38 win at Washington St. James produced 173 rushing yards and three TDs on 29 totes in what was a huge win for Kyle Flood's team.

Western Kentucky QB Brandon Doughty was a turnover machine in a blowout loss at Tennessee last year. But in last week's 59-31 win over Bowling Green, Doughty completed 46-of-56 passes for 569 yards and six TDs without a pick.

Speaking of the Falcons, they won't have QB Matt Johnson for the rest of the season after he sustained a hip injury in the loss. Johnson threw for 3,467 yards with a 25/7 TD-INT ratio while leading Bowling Green to 10 wins in 2013.

As if Northwestern hadn't caught enough bad breaks over the last 12 months, piss-poor news struck again Thursday when Tony Jones was declared 'out' of Saturday's home game vs. No. Illinois. Jones had a team-high 55 receptions last season and had team-bests in catches (seven) and yards (64) in last week's 31-24 home loss to California. The Wildcats are already without their other best WR Christian Jones, who tore his ACL in August.

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Re: College Football Betting Info. Week 2

Total Notes - Week 2
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

According to our closing numbers on the major games in college football, the ‘under’ produced a 26-20 mark in Week 1 of the holiday season. I didn’t include the results from the “Extra Games” but we will touch on a few schools that both bullied and struggled in Week 1 below. Fortunately for us, VegasInsider.com college football expert James Manos returns with his Week 2 analysis on the total landscape. Manos offered up his thoughts on the opening weekend.

“I thought the sportsbooks did their best job of posting totals for Week 1 in the last three years. However, they were murdered by sharp syndicate action on a few games they completely botched the lines. In particular, the Bowling Green-Western Kentucky matchup. All of the big money movers won almost all the totals they moved on in Week 1,” explained Manos.

Big Five Notes (ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac-12, SEC)

The ACC watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in Week 1. Pittsburgh (62) and North Carolina (56) both lit up the scoreboard while Miami, Fl. (13) looked like the most inept team offensively. Manos didn’t like what he saw from the Hurricanes in Week 1.

He said, “Miami is going to be in trouble if they don't get better QB play. Golden has always been at his best as a HC when he can run the ball and play defense. He has the RB in Duke Johnson but with poor quality QB play, teams can stack the box to stop him. On Monday night the Hurricanes gave Johnson 20 carries that netted just 90 yards. I think Golden's only option is continue to feed Johnson and perhaps get him involved in the passing game even more (just one catch for 5 yards on Monday). With that strategy and an improved defense, Miami may play UNDER some of the high totals they are likely to see.”

The ‘over’ went 3-2 in Big 12 lined games and two of the offensive surprises were West Virginia and Oklahoma State, who scored 23 and 33 against Alabama and Florida State respectively. If you’re looking at an ‘under’ team, then check out Iowa State. The Cyclones were overwhelmed 34-14 by North Dakota State and they lost their top offensive player for the season, WR Quenton Bundrage.

Manos is very high on the FCS school. “North Dakota St. continues to field an FBS caliber defense on the FCS level. NDSU has won the past three FCS National Championships, all of those on the backs of quality defenses, but I don't think I've ever seen an FCS team have this sort of maintained defensive dominance for such an extended period. Last year the Bison allowed just 11.3 PPG and with 7 returning starters they seemed to be in good shape for this season as well. All the Bison did was go into Ames, Iowa (no easy place to play) and hold a Big XII team with 10 returning offensive starters to 14 points, 16 FD's, and just 253 yards of total offense. This is the 5th straight year that NDSU has defeated an FBS team and in those 5 games they've allowed a total of 69 points (13.8 ppg). Amazing!”

The Big Ten saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 in Week 1. Six of the 14 schools scored 40-plus points, including a league-high 55 by Nebraska.

The Pac-12 has four schools put up 50-plus points in Week 1, which included a 62-point performance by Oregon. While a handful of schools looked sharp offensively, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State and Colorado all struggled. The ‘under’ went 5-4 overall.

Kentucky scored 59 points in Week 1, which led all 14 schools in the SEC. Surprised? Considering the Wildcats haven’t busted 50 point since 2010, we should be. Offense is alive in the SEC and it helped the ‘over’ go 5-4 in Week 1.

Game of the Week – No. 7 Michigan State at No. 3 Oregon (Total 56)

All eyes will be in Eugene, Oregon this Saturday as the Spartans and Ducks square off for the first big matchup of the college football season. James Manos broke down the game for total bettors:

It is interesting to know that this is the lowest total on an Oregon game in three years. It' also interesting to note how different the Oregon offense has looked in its last five games vs. a Top 10 defense…..not nearly as good as usual. This will be a battle of styles with Oregon wanting to play up-tempo and make explosive plays and Michigan State wanting to avoid mistakes and play defense.

In a battle that's as dichotomous as this one we'll have to look and see how each team has played vs that style of opponent recently. Michigan State has fielded a Top 10 defense for 3-plus seasons now so let's examine their performances a little. Since 2011 the Spartans, in 39 games, have seen just four non-overtime games vs. FBS teams exceed a 58-point total. But I'd be careful with just assuming that means a low-scoring game here.

Two of those four games came vs. a Russell Wilson lead Wisconsin squad in 2011. The Badgers scored 31 and 42 points in the two meetings that year and I think it's the offense that most resembles the Ducks offense the Spartans will see on Sat. A faster paced team, with an outstanding, experienced QB, leading a team that runs the ball well. Also, interesting to note that the Big 10's only up-tempo team, Indiana, has played to totals of 58 and 70 the last two years vs. MSU running 74 and 83 plays.

I think the Ducks lack the explosive playmakers at the RB position that they've had recently and they'll be facing a VERY good Spartan front seven. The Pac-12 team that most resembles MSU is Stanford and the Cardinals have held the Ducks in check over their last two meetings, holding them to 14 and 20 points.

My offensive efficiency numbers were telling for this game as I have Oregon at 42.4% (my 2nd lowest number for them since 2011) but I made the number 58.5. I'll pass but I bet the Oregon coaches are reviewing those Wisconsin tapes from 2011.

Line Moves

As Manos mentioned above, the professionals did very well in Week 1 with their college football total leans and they’re locked and loaded again for Week 2. He said, “Those same sharp totals bettors have already picked off some low hanging fruit for this weekend. The Kansas State-Iowa State opened 60.5 and has been bet down to 54.5. What were the bookmakers thinking here? The Arkansas State-Tennessee has jumped from 51 to 57. Colorado-UMass was bet down from 54 to 49.5 and the Air Force-Wyoming game was also dropped, going from 58.5 to 51.5. I agree with all of these four major moves or what many would call mistakes by the books.”