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I started doing these for a friends blog. My credentials? I was a television sportscaster for about 14 years and a degenerate gambler my whole life. I do some research on this stuff so they're not just shots in the dark. I'm more of a contrarian bettor which sometimes suits me well. Just not last week. Thought I would start sharing here.
JETS + 1.5 over Lions
Yes, we are getting right back on the Jets after Monday Night's heartbreaker against the Bears. There are plenty of reasons why. The Jets outgained the Bears 414 yards to 257 in that game despite taking the loss. The other key reason is the Jets have been taking care of business on the ground. They are averaging 157 yards rushing to opponents just 55 per game. That's the best run stopping defense in the NFL, in case you hadn't noticed, and not many people have. Calvin Johnson is banged up for Detroit, and Matthew Stafford is going to need to throw the ball. Games are usually won in the trenches. Last week was an exception as the Jets just made too many mistakes. You want trends? We got 'em and they all seem to point to the Jets. They are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog under Rex Ryan. The Jets are also 15-2 ATS in the second of back to back home games. As for the Lions, the trends are horrendous. Detroit is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Lions are 4-13 ATS coming off a win. Since 2012, the Lions have been road favorites of 3 points or less 5 times, and are 1-4 SU in those five games. Grab the Jets today.
SCORE - Jets 24 Lions 17
VIKINGS +4 over Falcons
We are grabbing another home underdog in the Vikings this afternoon. The public is all over Atlanta, and why not after watching them just destroy a dismal Bucs team last time out. This is another one of those perception vs. reality games. The Falcons rolled out to a 56-0 lead against Tampa Bay, but they're favored by less than a touchdown this week? Against a team without its star running back, and starting a backup rookie QB? Well, this backup rookie QB has the chance to be someone pretty special. Teddy Bridgewater came off the bench and did pretty well in a hostile environment last week in New Orleans. He went 12-20 for 150 yards. Its not easy coming off the bench on the road and replacing an injured starter. This week, Bridgewater had a chance to prepare, and he will be playing in front of a home crowd that is ready to embrace him. This is also a play on the Vikings defense, which kept things close at the Superdome, holding the Saints to just 20 points last week. The Falcons are also just not the same on the road and outdoors. They're also probably a little too fat and happy coming into this one. Some trends: The Vikings are 10-5 in their last 15 ATS at home, and usually bone-up in tough times. They are 41-28 ATS coming off back to back losses. I smell an upset.
SCORE - Vikings 23 Falcons 20
STEELERS -7 over Bucs
This is a game you just can't think too much about. I'm seeing people making a case for Tampa Bay, but I just don't see it. The perception IS reality here for a change. The Steelers are good, the Bucs are awful. Simple as that. There are also plenty of trends to support the cause here. The Steelers under Ben Rothlisberger are 28-3 SU as a home favorite of 7 or more points. Basically, they get the job done in front of the home folks. The Steelers are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home. Agsint the Bucs, the Steelers have covered 4 of the last 5 times. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall, and 0-4 ATS in their last four on the road. Tampa Bay also has a history of folding up like a cheap suit when things are going bad. The Bucs are 4-11 ATS after losing their last two previous games. This one will be easy.
SCORE - Steelers 34 Bucs 14
COWBOYS +3 over Saints
It looks like taking home underdogs is a pattern this week. This is a role that Tony Romo has actually succeeded in. He was hit better than 60% ATS as a home dog in his career. This year, Romo has some help in the backfield. DeMarco Murray has run for over 100 yards in three straight games, which makes passing much easier. Subtract last week's 20-9 win over Minnesota with a back-up QB thrown into the fire, and the Saints defense remains suspect. The Cowboys will be at least able to keep pace with the Saints passing attack. The trends are also our friend here. The Saints are 1-6 ATS as road favorites of less than 7 points. This one is also interesting: Teams that start the season with a 1-2 record after winning 9 or more games the previous season...they are 35-55-2 ATS in week four. Those teams mean, sometimes good teams from a previous year slip a bit, and it takes the oddsmakers a little more time to catch-up. One of many reasons to back the Cowboys today in a shoot out.
SCORE - Cowboys 38 Saints 34
Titans +7 over COLTS
That trend above...the one about 1-2 teams who were strong the year before? It also applies to the Colts this week. I know I'm asking you to just hold your nose and take a team that hasn't shown much lately, but there are two key things that point to the Titans today. They mainly have to do with Indy's performance as a favorite under Andrew Luck. Its amazing, but, if you take away games against the Jaguars, the Colts have won just four times by more than a touchdown with Luck as their quarterback. That's what you need to do to cash a ticket today. Also, Luck is 5-7 as a home favorite. The Titans aren't usually a team that packs it in either. They are 6-2 ATS coming off two or more consecutive straight-up losses. I don't necessarily see a Titans upset today, but I do see them keeping it close.
SCORE - Colts 24 Titans 21
BEARS +1.5 over Packers
The fourth home underdog on the card out of six picks. This one is also a big public fade as everyone is on the Packers this week. The perception by many is...the Bears are a little lucky to be where they are now. They were outgained in that win over the Jets, and maybe didn't deserve that comeback win in San Francisco. I see it differently. Maybe the Bears are one of those charmed teams you see every year that has the breaks just go its way. Winning games like that one the road also bring confidence, no matter how you get them. The Packers are also notoriously slow starters, with a 2-7 ATS in their last nine September games. Green Bay is also 7-11 ATS in its last 18 away from Lambeau. I'm on the Bears to continue the magic start to their season.
SCORE - Bears 28 Packers 24
JETS + 1.5 over Lions
Yes, we are getting right back on the Jets after Monday Night's heartbreaker against the Bears. There are plenty of reasons why. The Jets outgained the Bears 414 yards to 257 in that game despite taking the loss. The other key reason is the Jets have been taking care of business on the ground. They are averaging 157 yards rushing to opponents just 55 per game. That's the best run stopping defense in the NFL, in case you hadn't noticed, and not many people have. Calvin Johnson is banged up for Detroit, and Matthew Stafford is going to need to throw the ball. Games are usually won in the trenches. Last week was an exception as the Jets just made too many mistakes. You want trends? We got 'em and they all seem to point to the Jets. They are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog under Rex Ryan. The Jets are also 15-2 ATS in the second of back to back home games. As for the Lions, the trends are horrendous. Detroit is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games. The Lions are 4-13 ATS coming off a win. Since 2012, the Lions have been road favorites of 3 points or less 5 times, and are 1-4 SU in those five games. Grab the Jets today.
SCORE - Jets 24 Lions 17
VIKINGS +4 over Falcons
We are grabbing another home underdog in the Vikings this afternoon. The public is all over Atlanta, and why not after watching them just destroy a dismal Bucs team last time out. This is another one of those perception vs. reality games. The Falcons rolled out to a 56-0 lead against Tampa Bay, but they're favored by less than a touchdown this week? Against a team without its star running back, and starting a backup rookie QB? Well, this backup rookie QB has the chance to be someone pretty special. Teddy Bridgewater came off the bench and did pretty well in a hostile environment last week in New Orleans. He went 12-20 for 150 yards. Its not easy coming off the bench on the road and replacing an injured starter. This week, Bridgewater had a chance to prepare, and he will be playing in front of a home crowd that is ready to embrace him. This is also a play on the Vikings defense, which kept things close at the Superdome, holding the Saints to just 20 points last week. The Falcons are also just not the same on the road and outdoors. They're also probably a little too fat and happy coming into this one. Some trends: The Vikings are 10-5 in their last 15 ATS at home, and usually bone-up in tough times. They are 41-28 ATS coming off back to back losses. I smell an upset.
SCORE - Vikings 23 Falcons 20
STEELERS -7 over Bucs
This is a game you just can't think too much about. I'm seeing people making a case for Tampa Bay, but I just don't see it. The perception IS reality here for a change. The Steelers are good, the Bucs are awful. Simple as that. There are also plenty of trends to support the cause here. The Steelers under Ben Rothlisberger are 28-3 SU as a home favorite of 7 or more points. Basically, they get the job done in front of the home folks. The Steelers are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home. Agsint the Bucs, the Steelers have covered 4 of the last 5 times. The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in their last six overall, and 0-4 ATS in their last four on the road. Tampa Bay also has a history of folding up like a cheap suit when things are going bad. The Bucs are 4-11 ATS after losing their last two previous games. This one will be easy.
SCORE - Steelers 34 Bucs 14
COWBOYS +3 over Saints
It looks like taking home underdogs is a pattern this week. This is a role that Tony Romo has actually succeeded in. He was hit better than 60% ATS as a home dog in his career. This year, Romo has some help in the backfield. DeMarco Murray has run for over 100 yards in three straight games, which makes passing much easier. Subtract last week's 20-9 win over Minnesota with a back-up QB thrown into the fire, and the Saints defense remains suspect. The Cowboys will be at least able to keep pace with the Saints passing attack. The trends are also our friend here. The Saints are 1-6 ATS as road favorites of less than 7 points. This one is also interesting: Teams that start the season with a 1-2 record after winning 9 or more games the previous season...they are 35-55-2 ATS in week four. Those teams mean, sometimes good teams from a previous year slip a bit, and it takes the oddsmakers a little more time to catch-up. One of many reasons to back the Cowboys today in a shoot out.
SCORE - Cowboys 38 Saints 34
Titans +7 over COLTS
That trend above...the one about 1-2 teams who were strong the year before? It also applies to the Colts this week. I know I'm asking you to just hold your nose and take a team that hasn't shown much lately, but there are two key things that point to the Titans today. They mainly have to do with Indy's performance as a favorite under Andrew Luck. Its amazing, but, if you take away games against the Jaguars, the Colts have won just four times by more than a touchdown with Luck as their quarterback. That's what you need to do to cash a ticket today. Also, Luck is 5-7 as a home favorite. The Titans aren't usually a team that packs it in either. They are 6-2 ATS coming off two or more consecutive straight-up losses. I don't necessarily see a Titans upset today, but I do see them keeping it close.
SCORE - Colts 24 Titans 21
BEARS +1.5 over Packers
The fourth home underdog on the card out of six picks. This one is also a big public fade as everyone is on the Packers this week. The perception by many is...the Bears are a little lucky to be where they are now. They were outgained in that win over the Jets, and maybe didn't deserve that comeback win in San Francisco. I see it differently. Maybe the Bears are one of those charmed teams you see every year that has the breaks just go its way. Winning games like that one the road also bring confidence, no matter how you get them. The Packers are also notoriously slow starters, with a 2-7 ATS in their last nine September games. Green Bay is also 7-11 ATS in its last 18 away from Lambeau. I'm on the Bears to continue the magic start to their season.
SCORE - Bears 28 Packers 24
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