NFL Betting Info Week 4

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NFL Week 4


49ers (1-2) @ Rams (1-2) — Both sides desperate after losing last two games; Rams looked lost in falling behind 21-0/24-0 in games at Atlanta/Dallas, after they rallied back from down 11 to nip Arizona in opener. 49ers scored one TD on 21 drives in last two games, with ten 3/outs, completing 26-55 passes in losses by 26-20 points- they’re 3-7 vs spread in last 10 divisional games, 4-0 as favorite of 3 or less points under Harbaugh. Rams are 10-5 as underdogs under Fisher, but 0-2 this year; they went 1-0-1 SU vs 49ers LY, after going 1-7 in previous eight series games, but SF has lost two of last three visits here. Home teams in divisional games are 11-4 vs spread so far this season. Rams are protecting Bradford better but WRs are not making plays and running game (57 ypg) has been non-existent. Long trip on short week for 49er team whose two best defensive players are either missing: Smith (alcohol rehab), or banged-up: Willis (wrist).

Steelers (0-3) vs Vikings (0-3) (London) — What did the British do to deserve this? Steelers are horrible, with no takeaways (-9) in first three games; they’ve run ball for only 52 ypg behind banged-up OL and Big Ben can’t win games by himself (had two turnovers returned for TDs by Bears Sunday night), despite passing for 379 yards. Pitt is 10-35 on 3rd down and has allowed ten sacks (-7). Vikings are also 0-3, but last two losses were by total of five points, as Browns’ backup QB Hoyer won Metrodome opener with last-second TD pass last week. Minnesota allowed 34-31-31 points in first three games, giving up 11 TDs on 38 drives- they gave up 24 first half points in each of last two games, including TD on a fake FG last week. Not many teams have four takeaways in consecutive games and don’t win either one. AFC teams are off to 11-3 start vs NFC rivals; Steelers are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs NFC teams, Vikings are 11-21-1 vs AFC teams last 8+ years.

Ravens (2-1) @ Bills (1-2) — Baltimore’s defense may be better without Lewis/Reed; they allowed no TDs on 22 drives in last two games, after getting riddled by Denver juggernaut in opener. Trailing 6-3 with 3:00 left in half last week, Ravens scored TDs on defense/special teams in 1:54 span to grab control of game vs good Houston team. Buffalo scored 21-24-20 points in first three games with rookie QB, so they can’t be too displeased; their two home games were decided by total of three points. Bills covered five of last seven tries as home dog (2-0 this year) and have run ball for average of 135 ypg, despite not getting much from Spiller (knee). Since 2007, Ravens are 4-11 as non-divisional road favorites (4-6 under Harbaugh); they’re 10-9 overall as road faves under him. Buffalo is 8-4 vs spread in game following its last 12 losses. Road favorites in non-divisional games are 4-7 vs spread league-wide. AFC North teams are 3-4-1 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-0.

Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (1-2) — Cleveland is just 32-49 SU at home the last 10+ years, but after upsetting Vikings in Metrodome last week, should be renewed enthusiasm, especially if Hoyer gets off to fast start. Browns won last week despite four turnovers; they ran ball for 103 yards in first game without Richardson, after running for 112 yards in two games with him. Bengals are 10-2 in last 12 games on grass, 6-1-1 in last eight games as road favorite and 17-7 in game following their last 24 wins, but they’re 0-5 as a divisional road favorite (7-1-1 as non-divisional AF). Seven of nine Bengal TDs have been on drives of 78+ yards, but they’ve lost field position battle in all three games. Cleveland has been outscored 41-10 in second half of games. Cincy won seven of last nine series games, with average total in last four, 51.5; home team won six of last seven series games, with Bengals 5-3 in last eight visits to Lake Erie.

Colts (2-1) @ Jaguars (0-3) — Jax is 3-1 in last four series (post-Manning) games, after losing 15 of previous 20 against Manning; Colts lost two of last three visits here, are in huge trap game coming off 27-7 whipping of 49ers at Candlestick (336-254 TY, +2 TOs). Since ’08, Indy is 13-5-1 as a road favorite, 6-3 in division games. Second week in row on road for Colts, in 49er/Seahawk sandwich against lesser division foe; underdogs covered their first three games. Jags have been outscored 92-28 in three games (32-9 average), 55-5 in first half, allowing 165.7 rushing yards/game; none of their three offensive TDs came on drives longer than 52 yards and two of three games had extended garbage time, Jax is 5-14 as a home dog, 7-11 as an AFC South home dog; they have only two TDs in eight trips to red zone- if you bet on them, you’re a masochist. Indy running ball for 146.3 ypg, figures to improve that with Richardson added to mix.

Seahawks (3-0) @ Texans (2-1) — Houston was first team since at least 1970 to win on last play in both Weeks 1-2, then went to Baltimore and got waxed when offense/special teams gave up TDs; hard to figure Texan squad that is 9-6 as home dog under Kubiak, 13-6 as dog of 3 or less points, 7-1-1 in last nine games where spread was 3 or less either way. Seahawks are 7-2 in games with spread of 3 or less, 2-4 as road favorite under Carroll, 6-8-3 vs spread on grass; they’ve allowed only three TDs on 30 drives this year, but are just 3-6 in last nine true road games, scoring only 12 points in opening win at Carolina, its only road game. Texans gained 449-452 yards in Weeks 1-2, was held to 264 last week, as trend of them folding vs top teams continues to hold. Home teams won pair of one-sided series games; Seattle lost 34-7 in only visit to Reliant, four years ago. AFC South teams are 2-7 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.

Cardinals (1-2) @ Buccaneers (0-3) — Didn’t take long for Schiano to pull plug on QB Freeman ($8.43M/year) in favor of rookie Glennon, whom he tried to recruit for Rutgers; Bucs have one TD on 21 drives in last two games, completed 45.7% of passes in three games, very poor, but last coach to cut a QB loose in order to play Glennon got canned within 15 months (Russell Wilson/O’Brien at NC State). Tampa won six of last eight series games, with last six all decided by 7 or less points. Arizona lost last three played here by 4-1-7 points. Cardinals are just 6-24 on 3rd down last two games, scoring 22 points on nine trips to red zone; they’re 9-7-1 as road dog since 2011, but have terrible injury problems at LB, losing three guys in last week. Since ’09, Bucs are 5-9-1 as home favorites- they’re 5-10-1 in last 16 games as a non-divisional HF. Home teams are 7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC South teams.

Bears (3-0) @ Lions (2-1) — Chicago won nine of last 10 series games, taking last three by 24-6-2 points; Bears won four of last five visits to Motor City, are off to 3-0 start under Trestman, winning field position in all three games by 14-15-14 yards, unusually good to have three straight games like that. Chicago has 11 takeaways (+6) in three games, with defense scoring three TDs in last two weeks. Detroit WR Burleson broke his arm “bringing pizza home” during week; I eat more pizza than anyone I know, always get it delivered. Detroit threw for 352/358 yards in its two wins, 273 in loss at Arizona; with Freeman getting benched in Tampa, Stafford is last starting QB left from draft class of ’09. Lions have only four turnovers in four games; they better protect ball here. Since ’08, Bears are 8-15-2 as road underdogs; Lions are 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorites. Detroit has 27 penalties for 259 yards; Chicago has 11 for 119.

Cowboys (2-1) @ Chargers (1-2) — All three San Diego games were decided by exactly three points, with both their losses in last 0:30; home teams lost last four games in this series, with Dallas winning four of five visits here (only loss 24-23 in ’83). Five of last seven series games were decided by 4 or less points. Pokes are 6-12-1 under Garrett in games where spread was 3 or less points; San Diego is 6-9-1 in last 16 such games. AFC is off to 11-3 start vs NFC rivals; entire NFC East is at AFC West this weekend. Cowboys scored 36-31 in their wins, were held to 16 in loss at Arrowhead; Chargers allowed 33-30-20 points so far this year, but have had a TD drive of less than 50 yards in all three games, as defense/special teams helped them win field position battle all three games. After converting 17-29 on third down in first two games, Bolts were just 3-9 in Nashville. After getting six takeaways in season opener, Dallas has only one in last two games (+3 in turnovers for year).

Giants (0-3) @ Chiefs (3-0) — Andy Reid might already be NFL Coach of the Year; his Chiefs have been +15/+14/+23 in field position in winning first three games (they were 2-14 LY)- they’re +9 in turnovers, while Giants are -9. All three KC games have stayed under the total as Chiefs have run ball for 127 ypg and Smith has totally avoided mistakes, taking sacks instead of making risky throws. Manning has been sacked 11 times (-8) and Big Blue allowed 21+ points in second half of all three games- they converted 4 of 23 third down plays in last two games. Banged-up Giant OL has been unable to open holes (44.3 rushing yards/game). Chiefs are just 3-15-1 in last 19 games as a home favorite; they’ve covered 10 of last 14 vs NFC foes, but failed to cover in narrow 17-16 (-3) Week 2 win over Dallas. Giants won last four series games, all by 10+ points; they’re 4-2 in Arrowhead, which was built exactly like old Swamp Stadium.

Jets (2-1) @ Titans (2-1) — Rookie QB Smith has been better than advertised for Jets, who lost here 14-10 (+1.5) in Week 15 Monday nighter LY, just second Tennessee win in last seven series games. Jets are 3-2 in Nashville, but are just 1-5 in last six games as a non-divisional road dog (they’re 11-4 in last 15 games as a divisional road dog). Gang Green is 2-1 despite -6 turnover ratio; they don’t have a takeaway in last two games, but also have yet to allow more than 5.4 yards/pass attempt in many game. Tennessee has yet to turn ball over behind mobile-but-erratic Locker, who led last-minute TD drive to nip Chargers here last week; Titans are 4-5-1 as home favorite under Munchak, 7-13 in game following their last 20 wins. AFC East teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South teams are 2-7, 0-3 at home. 50 years ago, the Jets were known as the New York Titans, the Titans were known as the Houston Oilers; go figure.

Redskins (0-3) @ Raiders (1-2) — Winless Washington limps into Bay Area 0-3 after scoring three points in two red zone drives last week; they’ve been outscored 67-21 in first half of games, but played better last week in what was entertaining game. Skins are 2-2 as road faves under Shanahan who once coached the Raiders and then tormented them for years with Denver, after Al Davis shorted him on severance pay. Oakland got crushed in Denver Monday, but Broncos are doing that to everyone; concern is for improving young QB Pryor, who is showing signs of being good. Short week for Oakland, which may go to highly-paid backup QB Flynn if Pryor (concussion) can’t play. NFC East teams are 1-4 as non-divisional favorites. AFC West teams are 7-1 vs spread out of division, 4-0 as underdogs. Oakland ran ball for 392 yards in first two games, only 49 Monday night. Raiders are 8-4 in this series, with teams splitting four games played here.

Eagles (1-2) @ Broncos (3-0) — Denver is on short week after dispatching Raiders Monday night; they’ve scored 42.3 ppg in first three games, winning by 22-18-16 points. Good news for Eagles; for first time in three weeks, the other team is on a short week, not them, since Philly played on Thursday last week, but Broncos have scored 15 TDs on 36 drives, with eight TDs and a FG in 12 red zone drives- they’re 8-1 as home favorites with Manning as QB, after being 5-24-2 in that role from 2006-11. Eagles allowed 33-26 points in losing last two games, giving up 934 TY in two games, bad news vs high-powered Broncos in altitude, when both teams will be playing fast. Philly ran ball for 263-89-260 yards in first three games; they’ll need to keep ball away from #18 or this will ugly early. Eagles are 9-4 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Home teams won last five series games. NFC East teams are 2-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West teams are 8-1.

Patriots (3-0) @ Falcons (1-2) — After facing two rookie QBs and Josh Freeman (benched this week) in their first three games, Pats step up in class facing BC alum Ryan here. NE got young WR Thompson involved with two TD catches last week, but in last two games, Pats are still just 10-33 on third down, after being 11-20 in opener at Buffalo. Patriots allowed only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, but since ’07, Falcons are 24-11-1 as home favorites- Smith is 19-4 vs spread in game following a loss. Atlanta butchered end of last week’s game in Miami, missing a 35-yard FG when up 23-20 late- they had only two TDs in five red zone drives, while Miami was 3-3. Patriots are 22-15-1 vs spread coming off a win, 6-2 in last eight games where spread was 3 or less points, but just 3-6 vs NFC foes. Falcons are 23-12-1 under Smith when spread is 3 or less, but they’re already 0-2 in such games this season. Three of seven remaining unbeaten teams are underdogs this week.

Dolphins (3-0) @ Saints (3-0) — When Brees left San Diego as free agent/after his shoulder surgery, Miami chose Culpepper over him, which turned out better for Brees than Miami. Deserves mention that Saints beat Miami 46-34 in ’09, teams’ only meeting since Brees signed with NO. Unbeaten Dolphins are moving chains, converting 21-52 (40.4%) on third down and have only two penalties in last two games- they’re 28-12-2 as a non-divisional road underdog, achieved under five different coaches. Fish are 21-11-1 as road underdogs, 6-3 vs NFC opponents, 4-4 as a road dog under Philbin. Saints scored four TDs on 10 drives last week, after scoring total of three on 22 drives in first two games; Payton covered his last ten games as a home favorite (Saints were 3-3 as HF without him LY). Ryan’s defense held last two opponents to 273/247 yards, after Falcons gained 367 in opener. Unusual that first three Saint games this year all stayed under the total.

[TheGame]

NFL Trends

All Teams - General Angles

Play the 'over' in September games if a team went 'under' in its last two games (82-53-1, 60.7%): Bettors are quite impressionable early in the season and they tend to overreact if a team has the same result two weeks in a row. This applies to teams coming off of consecutive 'unders', as bettors may underrate the offenses or overrate the defenses of these teams based on two results that might be entirely due to variance, something that the oddsmakers adjust to as well. Qualifying 'overs': San Francisco at St. Louis (Thursday), Arizona at Tampa Bay, Baltimore at Buffalo, Dallas at San Diego, Chicago at Detroit, N.Y. Giants at Kansas City, New England at Atlanta and Miami at New Orleans (Monday).

Play against September home favorites coming off an ATS loss (82-55-8, 59.9% ATS): Many times, teams that are favored following an ATS loss are favored more because of reputation than because of performance on the field, and that makes the chalk vulnerable in these situations. Of course there will be situations where these teams bounce back well, but as you can see by the September record, the teams have been overvalued much more often than not. Qualifiers: New England +1 at Atlanta and Arizona +3 at Tampa Bay.

Play on September conference underdogs that were favored in their last game (90-61-9, 59.6% ATS): Novice bettors almost always prefer to bet favorites, and in their minds, when they see a team is an underdog after being favored the prior week, their general feeling is that either the team was overrated to begin the year or the team is now going up against a superior team. Qualifiers: Chicago +2½ and N.Y. Jets +3½.


Good Teams - At Least 10 Wins in the Last 16 Games

Play the 'over' in September when Good Teams are coming off of a straight up double-digit win (59-33-1, 64.1%): There is a direct correlation between winning by 10 points or more and games going 'over', and Good Teams are more apt to repeat good performances the following week. This even applied to defensive minded teams as they too tend to go 'over' in double-digit wins as their fine defense usually leads to good field position. Qualifying 'overs': Baltimore at Buffalo, Chicago at Detroit, Philadelphia at Denver, Indianapolis at Jacksonville, New England at Atlanta, Seattle at Houston and Miami at New Orleans (Monday).

Play against Good Teams as September road underdogs (49-31-7, 61.2% ATS): Sometimes bettors can get too stuck on the previous season and they automatically flock to teams coming off of double-digit-win seasons when they turn up as underdogs early the following year. Oddsmakers are quite aware of this, so when those previous winners turn up as underdogs early, there is usually a good reason for it. Qualifiers: Detroit -2½ and Atlanta -1.

Play against Good Teams in September coming off of an ATS loss (70-50-4, 58.3% ATS): Bettors are usually more forgiving when a Good Team fails to cover the spread than when a Bad Team fails to do so, as they believe the Good Teams have a better chance to bounce back stronger next game. However, a lot of times the team is simply not as good as it was the previous year, and the oddsmakers are a tad slow to adjust to that. Qualifiers: St. Louis +3 (Thursday), New England +1 and Seattle -3.


Bad Teams - At Least 10 Losses in the Last 16 Games

Play on Bad Teams as September road underdogs (114-79-12, 59.1% ATS): Perception is a wonderful thing, and novice bettors almost always shy away from teams that looked awful the previous year when they are road underdogs early on the following season. Thus, the books can pad the lines of these games a bit, inherently giving value to the dirty dogs. This is also a fantastic winning percentage for this size of a sampling. Qualifiers: Arizona +3, N.Y. Jets +3½ and Philadelphia +10½.

Play against Bad Teams as September conference favorites (61-38-3, 61.6% ATS): Now when teams that were bad last year are suddenly thrust into the favorite role vs. somewhat familiar conference opponents, it is a totally different mindset. These are teams usually not accustomed to being favored and they often wilt when being expected to win. Qualifiers: Chicago +2½ and Arizona +3.

Play on the underdog when two Bad Teams face each other in September (52-26-4, 66.7% ATS): This has always been one of our favorite angles and it goes back to the theory we just mentioned in the previous trend, that being that bad teams that are suddenly expected to win often crack. Meanwhile, the underdogs often feel disrespected by being underdogs vs. such weak opponents, and they usually use that for inspiration. Qualifier: Arizona +3.

[TheGame]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 4:

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 44)

Giants’ 0-3 panic vs. Andy Reid’s NFC East knowledge

When things get hot and hairy for Giants coach Tom Coughlin, he usually just goes out and wins a Super Bowl. But that seems like a tall order this year. Instead, Coughlin is playing it cool and telling the media that this weekend’s trip to Arrowhead isn’t a “must-win game”. Yeah, and Miley Cyrus is a virgin.

New York matches wits with a familiar foe in Kansas City head coach Andy Reid, who has plenty of tape on the Giants from his time in Philadelphia. Reid – AKA the Kool-Aid Man since sporting the Chiefs’ red – has already taken it to NFC East teams Dallas and Philadelphia this season. Kansas City has forced seven turnovers in those games while the Giants have coughed the ball up 14 times in three weeks. Oh Yeah!

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3, 47)

Bears' yards allowed per completion vs. Lions’ yards after the catch

Detroit’s offense is squeezing every bit of extra yardage out of its receivers, with guys like Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson tacking on gains after the catch. Burleson is out with a broken arm due to a pizza-related mishap but Bush is expected to return, giving the Lions some serious pitch-and-catch weapons in the backfield.

Chicago’s defense has done a good job creating chaos and plugging up the run, but has been vulnerable to the pass against three QBs not known for airing it out. The Bears are giving up 294.3 yards through the air per game – 24th – and is watching opponents pick up 13 yards per completion – second worst in the NFL. Top CB Charles Tillman, who will be checking Johnson, has missed time with a groin injury this week, only adding to Chicago’s issues.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 39)

Jets’ careless play vs. Titans’ flawless football

Even with Mark “Butt Fumble” Sanchez out of action, the Jets haven’t been able to avoid the comedy of errors. New York has turned the ball over eight times this year – six INTs, two lost fumbles – and hasn’t been able to erase those mistakes by forcing turnovers on the other side of the ball. The J-E-T-S have one INT and have been able to scoop up only one of their five forced fumbles.

Tennessee has a clean sheet in the turnovers category so far this year, even though they have put the ball on the ground twice. Quarterback Jake Locker is brimming with confidence after his best career showing in last week’s win over San Diego and RB Chris Johnson is as sure-handed as ever, having fumbled just 15 times on 1,532 career carries. The Titans have also been able to snatch away the football, with three INTs and two fumble recoveries.

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5, 57.5)

Eagles’ tired legs vs. Broncos' thin-air, no-huddle attack

Chip Kelly has gassed his team in the first three weeks of the season. The Eagles, running under a new up-tempo offense, played a frantic opening schedule with three games in 11 days, and looked tired and clumsy in a five-turnover loss to Kansas City last Thursday. Sure, Philadelphia has had nine days off to recharge the batteries but will find itself running on fumes quite quickly against its Week 4 opponent.

If dealing with Peyton Manning and the Broncos’ no-huddle attack wasn’t bad enough – 71 plays per game – opponents coming to Sports Authority Field at Mile High have to do so in the thin mountain air. To quote the great Ron Burgundy, “Face it. It’s Science”. Philadelphia’s defense buckled in the crunch versus K.C. and was on the field for more than 39 minutes. The Chiefs run a pretty conservative attack compared to Denver, which averages a league-best 0.596 points per play.

[TheGame]

Handicapping the betting history of 0-3 NFL teams
By JASON LOGAN

Teams starting the NFL season 0-3 are winless for a reason, which is never more evident than their record in Game 4 of the schedule.

NFL 0-3 teams are just 38-77 SU in their fourth game since 1985, posting a 54-57-4 ATS mark in those contests. Since 2000, those winless teams are 18-39 SU and 29-26-2 ATS in Game 4. Last season featured two 0-3 teams – Cleveland and New Orleans – and while both failed to snap their skids, they did manage to cover the spread.

Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season features six 0-3 clubs – New York, Washington, Jacksonville, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay - which ties the second-highest amount of winless teams heading into their fourth contest since 1985.

The 1986 and 1996 seasons also had six teams looking for the first win in their fourth game, with those teams going a combined 6-6 SU and ATS in their next outing. The 2009 season featured a high of seven 0-3 teams, which went 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in their fourth try.

Of the six winless 2013 teams, Tampa Bay has been in this situation the most over the past 28 seasons. The Buccaneers have gone 0-3 six times in that span and have failed to win Game 4 each time, posting a 3-2-1 ATS record in those outings. Tampa Bay is a 1-point home favorite starting rookie QB Mike Glennon versus Arizona Sunday.

Pittsburgh and Minnesota, who play each other in London Sunday, have each only been in this 0-3 spot once. The Vikings failed in their chance to win Game 4 SU and ATS while the Steelers snapped their slide with a SU and ATS victory. Pittsburgh is currently a 2.5-point favorite in Week 4.

NFC East rivals New York and Washington are also strangers to a 0-3 record. The Redskins, who are 3-point faves in Oakland, have only been there twice, losing both Game 4 chances and going 0-1-1 ATS. The Giants, who are 4.5-point dogs in Kansas City, have done this three times before since 1985, posting a 2-1 SU and ATS mark in their fourth game of that season.

Jacksonville, which currently looks like the worst of the worst, has been 0-3 to start the year just twice before, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in fourth-game situations. However, the Jaguars have only been in the NFL since 1995. They started 0-3 in that inaugural season and lost Game 4, but covered the spread. Jacksonville is a 7.5-point home pup hosting Indianapolis Sunday.

[TheGame]

Week 4 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Steelers (-2½, 42) vs. Vikings

Pittsburgh: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Minnesota: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS

Last week's results: Pittsburgh fell behind early and could never get over the hump against unbeaten Chicago, as the Steelers lost, 37-20 as a one-point home underdog. The Vikings were expected to knock off 0-2 Cleveland, but Minnesota was shocked as seven-point favorites in a 31-27 home defeat.

Previous meeting: The Steelers took care of the Vikings at Heinz Field, 27-17 as six-point favorites in 2009. Pittsburgh picked up a fortunate cover on an 82-yard interception return of a Brett Favre pass with 1:15 remaining in regulation, while Adrian Peterson was limited to 69 yards on the ground.

Betting notes: Mike Tomlin's club has struggled in the role of a road favorite, putting together a 1-6 ATS record since 2011, which includes outright losses at Oakland, Cleveland, and Tennessee. Even though this is a neutral site contest, the Vikings are listed as the home team. Last season, Minnesota won and covered in all four opportunities as a home underdog, while winning each of their last four games before the bye week.

Colts (-8½, 43) at Jaguars

Indianapolis: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS
Jacksonville: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS

Last week's results: The Colts hit the road for the first time this season and dominated the 49ers as 10½-point underdogs, 27-7. Jacksonville continues to make a case to be the worst team in football after getting pounded at Seattle, 45-17, while not coming close to cashing as 19½-point 'dogs.

Previous meeting: The two division rivals split a pair of games last season with the road team winning each time. The Jaguars shocked the Colts with an 80-yard touchdown pass late in a 22-17 victory as three-point road underdogs last September, but Indianapolis destroyed Jacksonville in north Florida, 27-10 as three-point 'chalk' seven weeks later.

Betting notes: The Colts won and covered four of six divisional games last season, including victories at Tennessee and Jacksonville. Since the start of last season, the Jaguars own a dreadful 2-6 ATS record as a home underdog, with seven straight-up losses coming by at least seven points.

Cardinals at Buccaneers (-2½, 40½)

Arizona: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS
Tampa Bay: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS

Last week's results: Both Arizona and Tampa Bay failed to cover as road underdogs, while each team was limited to single-digits. The Cardinals scored the opening touchdown at New Orleans, but the Saints would put the next 31 points in a 31-7 rout. The Bucs' offense continued to struggle in a 23-3 defeat at New England, the third consecutive 'under' for Greg Schiano's club.

Previous meeting: Tampa Bay outlasted Arizona in the desert, 38-35 back in 2010 as the Bucs cashed outright as three-point underdogs. The Cardinals are making their first trip to Tampa since 2007, as the Bucs held off Arizona, 17-10.

Betting notes: The Bucs are putting the Josh Freeman experiment on hold by starting rookie Mike Glennon at quarterback. Under Schiano, Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite, while losing four straight games at Raymond James Stadium. The Cardinals have cashed four of their last six games as a single-digit road underdog, while dropping eight consecutive road contests overall.

Giants at Chiefs (-4, 44)

New York: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Kansas City: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS

Last week's results: These two teams are going in opposite directions as the Chiefs go for their first 4-0 start since 2003. Kansas City knocked off Philadelphia last Thursday, 26-16 as three-point road underdogs, the second away cover for Andy Reid's team. The Giants can't seem to get out of their own way after allowing 402 yards in a 38-0 defeat at Carolina, the third straight game New York has given up at least 36 points.

Previous meeting: The last time the Giants traveled to Arrowhead Stadium, New York was seeking a 4-0 start instead of falling in an 0-4 hole. New York cruised past Kansas City, 27-16 as nine-point favorites in 2009, the third straight victory in the series dating back to 2001.

Betting notes: The Chiefs have won six of their last seven home games against AFC opponents, while posting a 5-2 ATS mark. The Giants have failed to cash in each of the first three games, while last having an 0-4 ATS stretch back in 2009, which ended up being an 0-6 ATS run after starting the season at 5-0.

Redskins (-3½, 44) at Raiders

Washington: 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS
Oakland: 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS

Last week's results: Washington won the NFC East title last season, but the Redskins boast the league's worst defense by allowing 32.6 points per game. The Redskins fell at home to the Lions, 27-20, the third straight non-cover, as Washington never went three consecutive games without an ATS win last season. The Raiders barely improved to 3-0 ATS with a late touchdown at Denver, but lost to the explosive Broncos, 37-21. Terrelle Pryor left the game with a concussion, as Oakland plans to start Matt Flynn at quarterback on Sunday.

Previous meeting: The Redskins traveled to the Black Hole and routed the Raiders, 34-13 as short road favorites in 2009. The away team has won each of the last five matchups since 1992, including two victories by Washington at Oakland.

Betting notes: Washington has been a reliable road team under Mike Shanahan, posting a 15-10 ATS record since 2010. The Raiders own an 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS record the last six games against NFC opponents, including home defeats to the Saints and Bucs.

[TheGame]

NFL Gambling Preview: Seattle Seahawks vs. Houston Texans
By Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

Seattle at Houston
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Seattle -3 (-120) O/U 45
CRIS Current: Seattle -2 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Seattle -2.5
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over

The Houston Texans stock is beginning to slide after three very underwhelming performances to start the season. Current media and fan scrutiny make things sound a bit worse than what they actually are according to this week’s power ratings which show Houston just 1.5 points below their season opening number. The betting public’s expectations haven’t been met by hea coach Gary Kubiak’s team as they’ve gone 0-3 ATS and shredded a lot of tickets. Line movement this week indicates bettors haven’t given up on Houston as they’ve remained a +2/+2.5-point underdog fairly steadily the past three days. It makes sense to believe that at some point the Texans are going to play up to their talent level and maybe this is the week. Being a home underdog against this team which many consider the best in football should have Houston fully motivated. You can build a decent situational case for them in this spot but it’s probably not enough to get to the window with.

The fundamental breakdown of the offense has been the concerning piece for Houston thus far and rectifying it here could be difficult but they’ve got some things that can work. Their receiver size on the perimeter in Andre Johnson (upgraded to probable) and rookie D’Andre Hopkins won’t allow Seattle to dominate physically at the line of scrimmage the way they do other receivers. The power running of their backs and the solid offensive line doesn’t figure to be consistently overwhelmed by the Seahawks either so scoring opportunities should exist. Defensively, Houston could have the opportunity to prey on a pair of rookie tackles in their first road contest as backup LT Alvin Bailey and backup RT Michael Bowie look like the starting tandem for this one. Each played last week in the home blowout of Jacksonville but initial road start against a much higher class of opponent could present problems.

Seattle meantime keeps plowing through opponents despite the injury list, venue, opponent or any obstacle. They will likely focus on stopping Houston running backs Arian Foster & Ben Tate, especially since Texans HC Kubiak has come out this week and said he wants to run it more. If they become predictable and ineffective on first down and find their way to unfavorable down and distance situations, Seattle’s defense will thrive. Feeling here is Houston may need to drop the macho nature on early downs and mix in the passing game where they should be able to get 5+ yards consistently with their matchups.

This game has so many directions in which it could go and none of them would be a real surprise. Have to believe that the Houston offense will show up here (namely Matt Schaub) and give the Texans a shot at the outright win. Seattle is just too consistent at this point to feel any team will totally derail them so playing the side is not an option for me. Recommendation here will be to buck the downward (injury based) movement in the total and take the value in over 41.5.

[TheGame]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

The Colts are 13-0-1 ATS since Dec 15, 2002 as a road favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS since Oct 19, 2008 when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

Saints TE Jimmy Graham is 9-0 ATS since 2011 after a home win where he had at least 60 receiving yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

The Patriots are 15-0 ATS since 2002 on the road after a win as a favorite in which they failed to get into the end zone on at least three separate red zone attempts.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

Winless teams which are at least 7.5 point home dogs are 43-25-2 ATS and 44-25-1 OU. Active on Jacksonville.

NFL O/U TREND:

The Ravens are 0-11 OU since January 13, 2007 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games.

PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:

The New York Jets stumbled into a Week 1 win against Tampa Bay and then four days later, hung around to get the cover at New England. After beating Buffalo in Week 3 it’s fair to say New York (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) is one of the surprise teams of 2013. The Jets have a Monday game vs. the Falcons on-deck and small road dogs in this spot have produced 8 overs and 4 unders the past five seasons.

Non-divisional road teams in this range who are riding high off a win and gearing up for a big primetime contest next week are 40-22-1 O/U (65-percent) when the total is 36 points or greater:

The home team is not overlooking the Jets and the line is tight enough that both teams see this as a legitimate chance to get a win. The Titans (2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) have held two of three opponents to fewer than 20 points this year but in 2012 they accomplished that feat just three times. With a few books still offering 39.5 we’re still getting fair value on this total and as each team scraps for its third ‘W’ look at backing the Jets and Titans OVER 39.5 points.

[TheMule]

GAME - you like Detroit to win tomorrow? I like em. Chicago's defensive TD's can't continue 4 games in a row can they?

[TheGame]

GAME - you like Detroit to win tomorrow? I like em. Chicago's defensive TD's can't continue 4 games in a row can they?

My concern is how healthy is Reggie Bush.
If he is good to go. Then losing Nate is not that big of a deal.
But losing Nate just proves that even if you draft 88 receivers like Millen did...You still need more.
The Lions were probably going to replace Nate next year anyways. But beyond him they had very little depth.
The next best receiver for them is coming off of two major knee injuries.
I would not be shocked to see them offer a guy like Leshoure to the Browns for Bess or Little.

Back to the Lions. I think they have a good shot to win this game.
I hate to say it. But it's a must win for them. This game dictates the rest of their season.
They lose this game. They probably spiral down into a losing season.
In the past they have been known to submit when facing injury issues and they embrace it as an excuse to fail.
It's just been part of their DNA for years.
Teams that are not use to winning are also not use to dealing with adversity.
Honestly I think a game like this defines Stafford as a leader and Schwartz as a head coach.