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**TheGame** · 01-19-2015, 11:15 AM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

NEW ENGLAND (14 - 4) vs. SEATTLE (14 - 4) - 2/1/2015, 6:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 84-49 ATS (+30.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-75 ATS (+23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 74-48 ATS (+21.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NEW ENGLAND vs. SEATTLE
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games
Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

**TheGame** · 01-21-2015, 08:22 AM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Now we’re down to the final two contestants taking their rightful place in the Super Bowl XLIX, set for February 1st at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The defending champion Seattle Seahawks have a shot at consecutive Super Bowls after a beyond belief 28-22 OT victory over Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. Meanwhile, the England Patriots dismantling Indianapolis Colts 45-7 in the AFC Championship Game sets up a sixth Super Bowl appearance for the Belichick/Brady tandem. Seahawks good fortune in stunning Green Bay, Patriots impressive effort against Indy offshores have the game between a pick ‘em and Patriots -2.0 favorite depending on locale. The total is hovering between 48 and 49.

When handicapping 'Super Bowl XLIX' there are a couple of interesting trends that you should be aware of. The NFC has controlled the past 25 Super Bowls, going 15-10 straight-up. Factor in the great equalizer (point spread) they're a profitable 16-8-1 ATS split between 7-5-1 ATS as chalk, 9-3 ATS in an underdog roll. Looking at more recent trends, the NFC has won 5 of the past 10 Super Bowls (7-3 ATS) and 4 of the last 6 with a sparkling 5-1 ATS record.

Other notable betting nuggets for Super Bowl XLIX.

O/U 13-11-1 past 25 'Big-Games' with an average score of 52.5
O/U 4-6 past ten 'Big-Games' with an average score of 48.6
O/U 4-2 past six SB's with an average score of 51.1
O/U 3-7 L10 Super Bowls with total => 46

Favorite 2-8 ATS L10 Super Bowls with total => 46
Favorite 2-3 ATS L5 Super Bowls when line 3.5 or less
Underdogs 6-1 ATS L7 Super Bowls
Underdogs 7-3 ATS L10 Super Bowls

Seahawks 6-3 ATS in second season under Carroll
Patriots 12-15-1 ATS in postseason under Belichick

Patriots 1-4 ATS in Super Bowls under Belichick
Patriots 1-4 O/U in Super Bowls under Belichick

**TheGame** · 01-23-2015, 06:08 AM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

49 Super Betting Angles
VegasInsider.com

Super Bowl XLIX between the Patriots and Seahawks will be the 49th installment of the big game on Sunday Feb. 1, 2015 from Glendale Arizona.

Before you start your handicapping the matchup and prop bets, you might want to check out 49 angles that our Editorial staff have uncovered for the Super Bowl.

1 – In the first 49 Super Bowls, only one was decided by exactly one point – Super Bowl XXV in in 1991 when the Giants defeated the Bills 17-16 from Tampa, Florida as seven-point underdogs.

2 – There have been two Super Bowls played in Arizona. The Cowboys defeated the Steelers 27-17 in SBXXX (1996) from Sun Devil Stadium before the Giants stunned the Patriots 17-14 in SBXLII (2008). The underdog cashed in both of these games and the ‘under’ connected as well.

3 – The Patriots own a 3-4 record in Super Bowls. The margin was three in all three of the victories as New England captured wins over the Rams (20-17), Panthers (32-29) and Eagles (24-21).

4 – New England is one of four teams that has lost at least four Super Bowls. The other three are the Bills, Broncos and Vikings. Denver sits atop the group with five setbacks in the finale.

5 – Since 2000, five Super Bowl winning teams haven’t had a player that had at least 1,000 receiving yards. The Seahawks’ leading receiver this season is Doug Baldwin with 825 yards. Out of those five clubs, last year’s Seahawks and the 2003-04 Patriots made this list.

6 – Marshawn Lynch has rushed for over 100 yard six times this season. Seattle has won five times with the lone loss coming at Kansas City, while four of those victories came by 16 points or more.

7 – Pete Carroll owns a solid 7-2 record in the playoffs as head coach of the Seahawks. Carroll is looking to become the sixth coach in history to put together at least eight wins in his first 10 postseason games with a single team. The coach with the best record in this category? Bill Belichick, who started 10-0 with the Patriots.

8 – There have only been eight back-to-back Super Bowl champions. Seattle will look to be the ninth. Coincidentally, New England (2003-2004) was the last team to accomplish the feat.

9 - Since the University of Phoenix Stadium opened in 2006, Seattle has made nine trips to this venue and its struggled to a 3-6 record, both straight up and against the spread.

10 – Ten seasons since the Patriots last won a Super Bowl, which came in the 2004 season against the Eagles. In each of their three Super Bowl victories, New England built a double-digit lead at one point in the game. In all four losses, the Pats never led by more than eight points.

11 – The amount of times (11) that New England eclipsed the ‘over’ this season. However, the Pats went ‘over’ the total only once in four games against NFC opponents.

12 – New England quarterback Tom Brady wears No. 12 on his jersey. Including his five appearances in the finale, quarterbacks wearing No. 12 have produced a 14-12 overall record in Super Bowls, the last victory coming by Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in SBXLV.

13 – This will be the 13th appearance by a team (Seattle) currently in the NFC West. The record by this group in the first 12 is 7-5.

14 – Head coaches appearing in their second Super Bowl are 14-8 all-time, as Seattle’s Pete Carroll is on the sidelines for his second crack at the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

15 – In the first 48 Super Bowls, the underdog has captured outright victories 15 times. The biggest upset came in SBIII (1969) when the New York Jets defeated the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

16 – Seattle allowed 16.3 PPG on defense this season, which is ranked first in the NFL. The Seahawks also lead the league in scoring defense last year and in 2012.

17 – There have been 17 Super Bowls played in a dome or a venue that has a retractable roof. Favorites have gone 12-5 SU and 9-6-2 ATS while the ‘under’ has produced a 10-7 mark.

18 – Since the start of the 2011 season, the Patriots have suffered 18 losses against the spread away from Foxboro. Overall, New England owns a 16-18 record versus the number over this span.

19 – Since Tom Brady became the starting quarterback for New England, the team has played 19 regular season games in the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones. The club has gone 10-9 both SU and ATS in those matchups and that record doesn’t include their loss in SBXLII (2008) against the Giants.

20 – Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have come together to win 20 playoff games since the 2001 season. In spite of a 20-8 SU record, New England has compiled a 12-15-1 ATS mark in the postseason during their partnership.

21 – According to the Nevada Gaming Commission, sportsbooks have posted a “profit” in 21 of the last 23 Super Bowls. The two matchups they lost on came in 1995 when San Francisco annihilated San Diego and in 2008 when the Giants upset the Patriots.

22 – New England (+12) and Seattle (+10) had a combined turnover differential of plus-22 this season. In the history of the Super Bowl, only three teams won with a negative turnover margin – Dallas (1971) and Pittsburgh (1980, 2006).

23 – In its last eight games, Seattle has allowed 23 combined points. The Seahawks have won all eight games (7-1 ATS) and cashed 2nd-half wagers in each contest as well.

24 – The ‘over’ has cashed in 24 of the first 48 Super Bowls and is on a 3-1 run (75%) the last four years.

25 – Last year’s Super Bowl MVP was Seattle linebacker Malcom Smith, an unlikely winner, was included in the Field (Any Other Player) bet at 25/1 odds to win the award.

26 – Quarterbacks have captured the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award 26 times, which includes four of the last five years.

27 – The Seahawks allowed 27 touchdowns during the regular season, ranked second in the NFL. In the playoffs, they’ve allowed three touchdowns and none were rushing.

28 – Pete Carroll won 28 games during his three-year tenure (1997-1999) as head coach with the New England Patriots. He produced a 28-23 record, which includes a 1-2 record in the playoffs.

29 – In Super Bowl 29 (XXIX), San Francisco blasted San Diego 49-26 which was the highest scoring all-time finale.

30 – New England averaged a league-best 30.4 points per game this season. The last team to lead the league in scoring and win a Super Bowl was New Orleans, who captured SBXLIV in 2010.

31 – The highest point total scored by a losing team in a Super Bowl was 31, which happened twice. San Francisco dropped a 34-31 decision to Baltimore in SBXLVII (2013) and Dallas came up short to Pittsburgh 35-31 in SBXIII (1979).

32 – Terrell Davis captured the Super Bowl MVP in Super Bowl 32 (XXXII) as running back for the Denver Broncos, the last back to do so in the finale.

33 – It’s been 33 years since the Super Bowl has had a point-spread close at one-point, which occurred in San Francisco’s 26-21 win over Cincinnati in Super Bowl XVI (1982) from Michigan. The only other time this happened was in 1973 when Miami defeated Washington 14-7 in SBVII as a one-point favorite.

34 – The most completions by a quarterback in a Super Bowl was 34, which happened in last year’s title game by Peyton Manning. In seven postseason games, the most completions Russell Wilson produced was 24 and the Seahawks lost that game. Tom Brady has posted 30 or more completions three times in his 28 playoff games.

35 – The most points ever scored in a quarter of a Super Bowl was 35 by the Redskins in their 42-10 win against Denver in SBXXII. The highest point total for New England in a quarter this season was 31 points, while Seattle scored a season-high 21 points twice.

36 – Since Russell Wilson took over as starting quarterback in 2012 for Seattle, the team has produced 36 wins (ATS) at the betting counter. Under Wilson, the Seahawks are 36-18-1 (66.6%) against the spread.

37 – In SBXXXVII (2004), the Panthers and Patriots combined for 37 points in the fourth quarter, which was the most ever in the Super Bowl. This season, the Patriots gave up 3.6 PPG in the fourth quarter while Seattle allowed 4.4 PPG, ranked second and fourth respectively in the NFL.

38 – Seattle and New England’s defenses were very similar in allowing third down conversions. The Seahawks allowed opponents to convert 37.5% of their third downs, while the Patriots yielded 38.4% of third down opportunities from foes. The league average is 40%.

39 – In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.

40 – New England tallied 40 sacks in 16 regular season games. In this year’s two playoff matchups, the Patriots have zero.

41 – The most points the Patriots gave up this season was 41, which came in Week 4’s loss to Kansas City (41-14). In New England’s three meaningful losses, the defense allowed an average of 33.3 PPG.

42 – After defeating the Eagles 24-14 in SBXXIX (2005), the Patriots have played 42 games against the NFC. They’ve posted an impressive 33-9 (79%) winning record.

43 – The Patriots averaged 43 points per game in the four contests in which tight end Rob Gronkowski eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark this season. New England won all four of those games and the ‘over’ went 4-0 in those victories.

44 – There have been two Super Bowls that had 44 combined points scored. Coincidentally, one of them occurred in Arizona as Dallas defeated Pittsburgh 27-17 in SBXXX (1996).

45 – The most points New England has scored in the postseason under the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady regime was 45, which happened twice. In the 2011 playoffs, the Patriots blasted Denver 45-10. In this year’s AFC Championship, they dumped the Colts 45-7.

46 – Tampa Bay outscored Oakland 28-18 during the second-half of their 48-21 victory in SBXXXVII (2003). The 46 combined points was the most ever scored in the final two quarters of the Super Bowl.

47 – The longest kickoff return for the Seahawks this season was only 47 yards. Percy Harvin blew open last season’s Super Bowl with an 87-yard kickoff return for a score after halftime, but Seattle ranked 30th in the regular season in kickoff return average (21 yards/return). The Patriots were solid in this category, limiting opponents to the 5th fewest yards per kickoff return in the league.

48 – There has only been one Super Bowl where the combined score has landed exactly on 48 points. This occurred in SBXLIV when the Saints defeated the Colts 31-17 in 2010.

49 – Most betting shops opened the total for the Super Bowl at 49 points. The number is hovering between 48 and 49. There have been five Super Bowls with a closing total of 48 and the ‘under’ went 3-2 in those games. The Super Bowl has had three games close at 49 and the ‘over’ went 3-0 in those contests with an average combined score of 57.3 PPG.

**TheGame** · 01-27-2015, 10:43 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

ESPN's Ed Werder reports Richard Sherman has torn ligaments in his elbow.
It's the first we've heard of any torn ligaments, but Sherman has continually insisted it's not an issue. Sherman has been practicing in full ahead of Sunday's Super Bowl. Per Werder, Sherman is "improving daily," and "finished with treatment."

**TheGame** · 01-29-2015, 05:00 AM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Advantage - Seattle
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Seahawks are back in the Super Bowl for the second straight season, looking to become the first team to win consecutive titles since the Patriots accomplished that feat in 2004 and 2005. Seattle is riding an eight-game winning streak heading into Sunday, as Pete Carroll’s squad never had a hot stretch of that length last season (longest streak was seven consecutive victories).

Last season, the Seahawks put together a 13-3 record en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title, as Seattle dropped off by just one game to become the first team in 10 years (Patriots) to win back-to-back conference championships. Since a 3-3 start this season, the Seahawks have won 11 of their past 12 games, while limiting nine teams to 17 points or fewer. For the exception of a Week 11 setback at Kansas City, Seattle’s defense has yielded 32 points in its last four road victories.

Prior to the postseason, the Seahawks faced just one playoff team in the final nine weeks, drubbing the rival Cardinals twice, while holding them to nine points. The Seahawks needed to put together a massive rally to stun the Packers in the NFC Championship, but Seattle improved to 6-1 in the postseason with Russell Wilson at quarterback, including a 2-1 mark away from CenturyLink Field. Seattle won seven of eight games against teams that made the postseason, with the lone loss coming to Dallas in Week 6 as 10-point home favorites.

The Seahawks are 10-3 against AFC opponents since 2012, although two of those losses came this season on the road at Kansas City and San Diego. Seattle rallied past New England in its previous meeting in 2012 at CenturyLink Field, 24-23, scoring two touchdowns in the final 7:30 minutes to erase a 23-10 deficit. Amazingly, Wilson is 10-0 in his career against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (2-0 vs. Peyton Manning; 3-0 vs. Aaron Rodgers; 1-0 vs. Tom Brady; 2-0 vs. Eli Manning; 2-0 vs. Drew Brees).

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his reasoning for backing the NFC champs, “The statistics pretty clearly favor the Seahawks in the Super Bowl if you just look at the numbers and ignore the legacy of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Seattle is about a half-yard per play superior to New England on both offense and defense, despite the perception that the Patriots are the better offensive team. The Seahawks gain 5.2 yards per carry on the ground while featuring an elite run defense that allows just 3.6 yards per rush, numbers that are vastly superior to what New England has posted this season. New England played a tougher schedule in terms of defensive opposition, but Seattle played a very tough slate in terms of the travel and scheduling as well as facing stronger opposition on the offensive end despite still being the league’s best defense.”

Last season, both the Seahawks and Broncos had to deal with the uncertainty of weather in New Jersey. This time around, Nelson points out the Seahawks have that advantage this week, “Seattle will also get to play on the west coast in a familiar venue while taking on a New England squad that has faced distractions all week. Last season’s Broncos team was a far more productive team than this year’s Patriots squad and they were completely shut down in the Super Bowl by Seattle. While repeat blowout performance seems unlikely, Seattle seems likely to retain the crown and push the Patriots to what will be a fifth straight ATS Super Bowl defeat for a franchise that is consistently overvalued in the postseason, now just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 playoff games.”

The Patriots have never covered in a Super Bowl as a favorite, losing outright to the Giants twice, while holding off the Panthers and Eagles. The only cover in the Super Bowl for New England in the Brady/Belichick era came in their first appearance in 2001, stunning the Rams as 14-point ‘dogs. The feather in the cap for the Seahawks is the 10-1 SU/ATS record Wilson owns in the underdog role, with the only loss coming in the final minute at Detroit in October 2012

**TheGame** · 01-29-2015, 05:00 AM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Advantage - Over
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Before we start breaking down the total for Super Bowl XLIX for Sunday I wanted to recap the postseason that I would sum up as bizarre for total bettors.

Based on our closing consensus numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 5-4-1 in the first 10 games.

Looking at those results cloer, it's safe to say that there were three clear-cut winners:

Cincinnati 10 Indianapolis 26 (UNDER 47)
Baltimore 31 New England 35 (OVER 47.5)
Indianapolis 24 Denver 13 (UNDER 53.5)

When I say clear-cut, these results were looking comfortable in the fourth quarter. When you look at the other seven, you can make solid arguments that outcomes could’ve been flip-flopped.

Some bettors, who like to shop, may’ve earned wins, losses or pushes on two games:

Baltimore 30 Pittsburgh 17 (Total ranged from 45 to 47.5) Line Moves
New England 45 Indianapolis 7 (Total ranged from 51.5 to 54) Line Moves

The remaining five games could've went either way and there were a couple outcomes that were tough to watch. The worst beat went to bettors who had the ‘under’ in the NFC Championship, followed by those who had the ‘over’ in the Divisional Playoff game between the Cowboys and Packers.

As always, we apologize to those who suffered losses and congratulate the winners!

For Sunday’s finale between the Seahawks and Patriots, oddsmakers sent out a total of 49 and most betting shops are now serving 47 ½ with a few holding 48.

I believe you can make solid arguments for both the ‘over’ and the ‘under’ for SBXLIX and that’s what I’m going to do.

With assistance from VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson, we’ll touch on the ‘over’ in this piece and also provide you reasons to back the ‘under’ in another installment.

CD’s Angles

New England averaged 30.4 points per game, which helped the ‘over’ go 9-7 in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs.

The Patriots lost four games this season. If you toss out the 17-9 meaningless setback to Buffalo in Week 17 when they rested starters, the other three losses were:

Miami 33 vs. New England 20
Kansas City 41 vs. New England 14
Green Bay 26 vs. New England 21

If you delve into these road losses, you’ll see that New England gave up 20 scores (10 FGs, 10 TDs) and if their opponents were very efficient and not for nothing, the margins could’ve been much worse. It’s fair to say that the blueprint for beating the Patriots outright is to score in bunches.

Is Seattle’s defense that great or are they a product of playing weak quarterbacks? Cam Newton, who is average, led the Panthers to three scores against Seattle and the Divisional Playoffs, plus he was picked off in the red zone. Even though Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay didn’t rack up a ton of yards (306), the Packers did have six scores (5 FGs, 1 TD) in their loss.

Other legit QBs that had success against the Seahawks this season were Philip Rivers and Tony Romo. They both helped the Chargers and Cowboys post 30 points on Seattle during the regular season, more importantly each team had six scores (3 FGs, 3 TDs).

The key to stopping Seattle’s offense is to attack the ground game and apply pressure on QB Russell Wilson. That’s much easier said than done and you should make a note that New England’s defense has zero sacks recorded in its two playoff games.

In its last nine games against the AFC, Seattle has averaged 28.4 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go 7-2.

In four games against the NFC North this season, New England scored 30, 51, 34 and 21 points.

Bill Belichick is often praised for his defensive schemes but his club hasn’t been exactly super outside of Foxboro in the postseason. The defense has given up an average of 26 PPG in true road playoff games and 21 PPG in five Super Bowls.

In seven postseason games with Wilson at QB, the Seahawks have watched the ‘over’ go 4-3 which includes a run of three straight ‘over’ tickets. The team has scored 102 points during the latest streak, which was helped with 23 points coming from defense and special teams. And you could push that number to 30 if you include the fake field goal TD by Seattle against Green Bay in this year’s NFC Championship. As you all know, defensive and special team scores always help ‘over’ tickets.

During the aformentioned span, the Seahawks have played three games outside of the state of Washington and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. Last year’s Super Bowl was one winning ticket and the other came in Wilson’s rookie season when the Seahawks came up short (30-28) to the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. The ‘Hawks have scored 24, 28 and 43 in these games.

In their most recent head-to-head clash, Seattle defeated New England 24-23 at home on Oct. 12, 2012 and the combined 47 points slid ‘over’ the closing total of 42 ½. I remember this game like it was yesterday and I won with the ‘over’ but was frustrated because the Patriots left so many points off the board. Fortunately I cashed due to a late heave by Wilson, but make a note that New England did move the ball all day (475 yards) on this Seattle unit and some might believe this year’s defensive group is weaker.

Expert Analysis - VI Handicapper Joe Nelson

Generally the belief is that Seattle’s defense this season has not been as strong as last season’s championship squad despite leading the league in most defensive categories again. In the regular season the Seahawks did allow 23 more points while the offense also scored 23 fewer points compared with the 2013 regular season numbers.

New England’s offense could be even stronger than the numbers suggest however as in 18 games the Patriots have faced eight top 10 defensive teams in yards-per-play. The Patriots did face below average offenses on the season playing in the AFC East, only facing five teams all season that wound up in the league’s top 10 in yards-per-play on offense as the Patriots might not be as strong as the numbers suggest on defense.

The defensive figures for Seattle may also be overrated as the Packers were the first team Seattle faced since Week 6 that finished in the top 10 of the league’s offensive yards-per-play rankings. Seattle also faced a run of marginal quarterbacks late in the season in the dominant late season run, catching back-up quarterbacks in four of the final six regular season games when the defense allowed just 39 points.

It wasn’t always pretty and Seattle certainly caught some breaks but the Seahawks have posted 59 points in two playoff wins and in half of Seattle’s games this season they have scored at least 26 points. The ‘over’ is 10-8 in Seattle games this season though this will be the highest total of the season for Seahawks game.

The ‘over’ is 10-7-1 in New England games though the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 on the closing lines in the last eight games for the Patriots. Half of the games for the Patriots have featured a total of 48 or higher this season with the ‘over’ going 5-3-1 in those games.

The only semi-recent meeting between these teams was in 2012 with Seattle winning 24-23 at home with a late comeback. The Patriots had more than 100 more yards and nine more 1st downs in the loss but settled for several field goals.

The big play potential for both teams on both sides of the ball could help to elevate the scoring and should this game get one-sided early both teams have proven capable of putting together late scoring drives

**TheGame** · 01-29-2015, 02:50 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Advantage - Seattle
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Seahawks are back in the Super Bowl for the second straight season, looking to become the first team to win consecutive titles since the Patriots accomplished that feat in 2004 and 2005. Seattle is riding an eight-game winning streak heading into Sunday, as Pete Carroll’s squad never had a hot stretch of that length last season (longest streak was seven consecutive victories).

Last season, the Seahawks put together a 13-3 record en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl title, as Seattle dropped off by just one game to become the first team in 10 years (Patriots) to win back-to-back conference championships. Since a 3-3 start this season, the Seahawks have won 11 of their past 12 games, while limiting nine teams to 17 points or fewer. For the exception of a Week 11 setback at Kansas City, Seattle’s defense has yielded 32 points in its last four road victories.

Prior to the postseason, the Seahawks faced just one playoff team in the final nine weeks, drubbing the rival Cardinals twice, while holding them to nine points. The Seahawks needed to put together a massive rally to stun the Packers in the NFC Championship, but Seattle improved to 6-1 in the postseason with Russell Wilson at quarterback, including a 2-1 mark away from CenturyLink Field. Seattle won seven of eight games against teams that made the postseason, with the lone loss coming to Dallas in Week 6 as 10-point home favorites.

The Seahawks are 10-3 against AFC opponents since 2012, although two of those losses came this season on the road at Kansas City and San Diego. Seattle rallied past New England in its previous meeting in 2012 at CenturyLink Field, 24-23, scoring two touchdowns in the final 7:30 minutes to erase a 23-10 deficit. Amazingly, Wilson is 10-0 in his career against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (2-0 vs. Peyton Manning; 3-0 vs. Aaron Rodgers; 1-0 vs. Tom Brady; 2-0 vs. Eli Manning; 2-0 vs. Drew Brees).

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his reasoning for backing the NFC champs, “The statistics pretty clearly favor the Seahawks in the Super Bowl if you just look at the numbers and ignore the legacy of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Seattle is about a half-yard per play superior to New England on both offense and defense, despite the perception that the Patriots are the better offensive team. The Seahawks gain 5.2 yards per carry on the ground while featuring an elite run defense that allows just 3.6 yards per rush, numbers that are vastly superior to what New England has posted this season. New England played a tougher schedule in terms of defensive opposition, but Seattle played a very tough slate in terms of the travel and scheduling as well as facing stronger opposition on the offensive end despite still being the league’s best defense.”

Last season, both the Seahawks and Broncos had to deal with the uncertainty of weather in New Jersey. This time around, Nelson points out the Seahawks have that advantage this week, “Seattle will also get to play on the west coast in a familiar venue while taking on a New England squad that has faced distractions all week. Last season’s Broncos team was a far more productive team than this year’s Patriots squad and they were completely shut down in the Super Bowl by Seattle. While repeat blowout performance seems unlikely, Seattle seems likely to retain the crown and push the Patriots to what will be a fifth straight ATS Super Bowl defeat for a franchise that is consistently overvalued in the postseason, now just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 playoff games.”

The Patriots have never covered in a Super Bowl as a favorite, losing outright to the Giants twice, while holding off the Panthers and Eagles. The only cover in the Super Bowl for New England in the Brady/Belichick era came in their first appearance in 2001, stunning the Rams as 14-point ‘dogs. The feather in the cap for the Seahawks is the 10-1 SU/ATS record Wilson owns in the underdog role, with the only loss coming in the final minute at Detroit in October 2012

**TheMule** · 01-29-2015, 04:54 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Originally posted by TheGame View Post

Advantage - Seattle
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

... Wilson is 10-0 in his career against Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (2-0 vs. Peyton Manning; 3-0 vs. Aaron Rodgers; 1-0 vs. Tom Brady; 2-0 vs. Eli Manning; 2-0 vs. Drew Brees).

... Seattle is about a half-yard per play superior to New England on both offense and defense, despite the perception that the Patriots are the better offensive team. The Seahawks gain 5.2 yards per carry on the ground while featuring an elite run defense that allows just 3.6 yards per rush, numbers that are vastly superior to what New England has posted this season.

The Patriots have never covered in a Super Bowl as a favorite, losing outright to the Giants twice, while holding off the Panthers and Eagles. The only cover in the Super Bowl for New England in the Brady/Belichick era came in their first appearance in 2001, stunning the Rams as 14-point ‘dogs. The feather in the cap for the Seahawks is the 10-1 SU/ATS record Wilson owns in the underdog role, with the only loss coming in the final minute at Detroit in October 2012

Pretty interesting stats & trends. Thanks!

**TheMule** · 01-29-2015, 05:01 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Defense wins championships... so says history:

Elite defenses have tended to be great offenses

New England led the league in scoring during the regular season, while Seattle allowed fewer points than any other team. These kind of matchups don’t happen often in the Super Bowl.
When they have, they have tended to favor the defense.
Since the merger in 1970, eight times the championship has featured an offense than ranked 1st or 2nd against either the No. 1 or No. 2 defense. in all but one of those games, the defense-based team has come out on top.
Here are those eight games, with the defenses in bold. San Francisco’s great offense in 1989 blew away the Broncos 55-10. Other than that, the really good defenses have beaten the really good offenses in every game.

1978	Pittsburgh (1) 35, Dallas (1) 31
1984	San Francisco (1) 38, Miami (1) 16
1989	San Francisco (1) 55, Denver (1) 10
1990	N.Y. Giants (1) 20, Buffalo (1) 19
1991	Washington (2) 37, Buffalo (2) 24
1996	Green Bay (1) 35, New England (2) 21
2002	Tampa Bay (1) 48, Oakland (2) 21
2013	Seattle (1) 43, Denver (1) 8
2014	New England (1) vs. Seattle (1)

—Ian Allan

**TheGame** · 01-30-2015, 01:23 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Super Bowl XLIX

I think this will be a high-scoring Super Bowl. Three of last four Super Bowls went over the total, which isn't relevant but its true. Game is indoors so weather won't be a factor. Think Seattle's DBs are banged-up, so Brady will attack them early and find out if they are indeed healthy. Belichick will take Lynch's run game away, forcing Wilson to put it in the air and see if he can do better than he did against Green Bay.

Belichick/Brady are in sixth Super Bowl, with first five all decided by 4 or less points. Carroll won his first Super Bowl 43-8 LY; he was 28-23 as Patriots' coach, but was fired and replaced by Belichick despite making playoffs twice and going 8-8 the third year. Coaches in their second Super Bowl are 14-8.

NFC won four of last five Super Bowls; its been ten years since Patriots won their last one, but who on Seattle can cover Gronkowski? Seahawks play in this dome every year when they visit the Cardinals- that has to be a little bit of an advantage.

Brady is the better QB; think the coaches are even. Carroll's greatness is underrated, as he and Dick Vermeil are only coaches to win Super Bowl and a Rose Bowl. Willson better play better than he did two weeks ago.

Since 1991, NFC is 4-0 vs AFC in Super Bowls with two #1 seeds. Seattle, 30-27.

Armadillosports

**TheGame** · 01-30-2015, 01:23 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Super Bowl XLIX Betting Lines and Picks
By: Larry Hartstein
Sportingnews.com

There are a million ways to break down Super Bowl XLIX, which kicks off Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

The Line: New England -1, Total: 48 Line movement: In the second half of the AFC title game blowout, the Super Bowl opened with Seattle laying 2.5 . A flood of Patriots money pushed it all the way to New England -1, with the The Wynn stretching to Pats -1.5 six days later before nudging back down to -1 on Tuesday.

The Linemakers on Sporting News' Kenny White said of the initial move on New England, "Probably the most movement I've seen on the Super Bowl since I've been following this for 30 years, but a lot of it has to with the number (being) so close to zero."

There's a difference of opinion on how the line will move ahead of kickoff, as some expect public money to push the line on the Pats higher, while others think Seattle money is bound to show .

The total opened as high as 49, and early bettors pounded the UNDER . Most books were at 48 by mid-week, with a few down to 47.5.

Current form: The Seahawks have won eight straight games, and now they're an underdog. They were on a 6-0-1 ATS run until engineering multiple miracles to beat Green Bay 28-22 in overtime in the NFC title game. The Patriots, on the other hand, were on ATS skids of 0-3 and 2-4 until destroying the Colts for the AFC crown. So if we're looking at more than the last game played, Seattle inspires more confidence at the betting window.

Trends that matter: The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven Super Bowls, winning five of those outright. ... Tom Brady/Bill Belichick are 1-4 ATS in the Super Bowl. ... The OVER is 9-3 in Seattle's last 12 playoff games. ... New England is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games on grass. ... New England is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 playoff games. ... Seattle is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on grass.

These teams last played on Oct. 14, 2012, the Seahawks (+3.5) rallying to win 24-23 at home.

Critical matchup No. 1: Seattle led the league in rushing, and it wasn't close. Their mark of 172.6 rushing yards per game was 25.5 yards more than second-place Dallas. The Patriots are not easy to run against, but they're not a brick wall either. They ranked ninth in rushing yards allowed (104.3) and yards per carry (3.98).

But as Mike Wilkening points out , New England faced few standout runners. The ones they did face -- Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy -- all ran for at least 92 yards and gained at least 4.7 yards per carry.

According to Football Outsiders , the Pats rank last in the NFL in stopping power runs, the “percentage of runs on 3rd or 4th down, with 2 yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.” Seattle ranked second in converting power runs.

In the playoffs, New England allowed 5.4 yards per carry to Baltimore's Justin Forsett (24 carries, 129 yards) and 5.1 yards per carry to Indy's Dan Herron (10 carries, 51 yards). Look for a good-to-great performance from Marshawn Lynch, who's run for 216 yards and a touchdown in two playoff games while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Lynch has a whopping 18 touchdowns in 18 games.

Critical matchup No. 2: After New England's 2-2 start, Tom Brady threw 29 TDs against seven INTs and posted a 103.0 passer rating, while the Pats reeled off 10 wins in 11 games. With tight end Rob Gronkowski, receivers Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola and running back Shane Vereen, Brady has a versatile cast to throw to. Seattle's elite secondary is not 100 percent healthy.

All that said, the Seahawks are uniquely suited to stop this passing game. Corners Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell won't need help outside. Seattle can employ extra defenders to take away Brady's top weapon, Gronk, over the middle.

Thanks to safety Kam Chancellor and linebackers K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner, the Seahawks shut down tight ends for the most part this season, allowing the fifth-fewest receiving yards (626) to the position.

Injuries that matter: Seahawks safety Earl Thomas dislocated his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game and will be at far less than 100 percent. He said he'll rely more on his teammates and vowed to play "fearless." Cornerback Richard Sherman's sprained elbow is less serious, and he's not expected to be limited in any way.

Patriots center Bryan Stork, who missed the AFC title game with a knee injury, is practicing but is not a lock to start. Ryan Wendell filled in well in Stork's absence, so this is not a major concern.

The Linemakers lean: The opening line -- Seahawks -2.5 -- was about where the spread should be for this game. Our power ratings make Seattle a 2-point favorite . "I don't get it," The Linemakers' Micah Roberts said of the early move to Patriots -1. "Before the championship game, we were looking at a 3-point spread." A half-point adjustment on both teams after their respective conference championship performances is justified, but even that gets us to Seattle -2. We're getting about 3 points of value with the underdog here. The Seahawks win a game dominated by defense. Seattle +1 and UNDER 48 are the plays.

**TheGame** · 01-30-2015, 01:24 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Super Bowl XLIX
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Seahawks’ slow starts vs. Patriots’ quick strikes

If the Super Bowl were the fabled race between the Tortoise and the Hare, Seattle would be cast in the role of the slow-and-steady Tortoise. The Seahawks know a football game is a marathon – not a sprint – and have been methodical in their approach on offense. However, when you’re playing a team as explosive offensively as the Patriots, a slow start can quickly put you behind on the scoreboard and alter even the best-laid game plans.

Seattle has managed just seven points in the first quarter over its last three games – a lone first-quarter touchdown and extra point against Carolina in the Divisional Round. That’s nothing new for this team, which averaged only 4.1 points per first quarter on the season.

The biggest culprit when it comes to the Seahawks dragging their cleats out of the gate is quarterback Russell Wilson. He’s been half-asleep in the opening frame this year, with an 82.3 QB rating, just two touchdowns, and picking up only 6.67 yards per completion on a 59.6 completion percentage. He’s also been sacked 10 times in the first quarter – 24 percent of his 42 total sacks taken on the year have happened in the first 15 minutes.

The Patriots showed just how quick they can pile on the points against the Colts in the AFC Championship, striking for two scores in the opening frame – deflated ball or not – which put Indianapolis on its heels and set the tone for a blowout victory. New England was eighth in the NFL in average first-quarter points (5.5) and heats up faster than Rob Gronkowski erotica, topping the AFC with an average of 16.2 points in the first half.

This is a veteran team that knows how to put its foot on opponent’s throats. If Seattle does fall behind early, the Seahawks may have to put the game solely on Wilson’s shoulders – not exactly where they would like it to rest with Wilson throwing four INTs in the NFC title game.

Patriots’ problems with pass-catching RBs vs. Seahawks’ dynamic RBs

We know the Seahawks aren’t afraid to dig deep into the playbook on the biggest stages and have shown some creativity on offense in the past. Seattle used Percy Harvin as anything but a wide receiver in Super Bowl XLVIII and drew up some trickery for WR Jermaine Kearse to hit QB Russell Wilson on a 17-yard pass in the Super Bowl matchup with the Broncos this September.

Don’t be surprised if running backs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin find their way to slot against the Patriots this Sunday. Lynch, for all his power-rushing prowess, proved he could play with finesse, reeling in 37 passes for 367 yards (9.9 yards per catch) and four touchdowns – ranked fourth among RB in receiving scores. Turbin is also a massive X-factor in this game. He only caught the ball 16 times for 186 yards – 11.6 yards per catch – and scored twice through the air this season.

New England has had a tough time containing pass catching running backs all season. The Patriots were hit for 678 yards receiving from running backs – 7.8 yards per catch and run – and gave up six passing touchdowns to RBs-turned-WRs, which ranks third most in the entire NFL. New England ranked 19th in YAC (yards after the catch) allowed, with 123.5 per game. Seattle ranked second in average yards after the catch, with 6.84 YAC per game.

The Patriots allowed Ravens RB Justin Forsett to score off a catch in the Divisional Round, Green Bay RBs James Starks and Eddie Lacy to combine for 51 yards on four catches in Week 13, Lions RB Theo Riddick to grab three balls for 40 yards in Week 12, Denver RB Ronnie Hillman to catch seven balls for 47 yards and a score in Week 9, Chicago RB Matt Forte posted 54 yards on six receptions and a TD in Week 8, Kansas City RB Jamaal Charles scored two receiving touchdowns in Week 4, Vikings backup RB Matt Asiata scored a 25-yard touchdown catch-and-run in Week 2, and Dolphins RB Lamar Miller reeled in a four-yard TD pass in Miami’s season-opening upset over New England.

Patriots and Seahawks' penalty problems vs. Super Bowl total

No two teams in the NFL have forced more flags to fly than the Seahawks and Patriots this season. Between the two Super Bowl contenders, refs have blown the whistle 277 times for a combined total of 2,292 free yards just handed over to opponents.

The worst offense for New England has been when defending the pass. The Patriots have been flagged for defensive pass interference 11 times in their 18 games (178 yards lost) and led the NFL in defensive holding with 16 infractions equaling 79 yards against. Sprinkle in four penalties for illegal contact – 20 more yards – and the Pats are gift wrapping massive gains for opposing passers.

For Seattle, it’s been a proverbial salad bar of flags and infractions but most of these are coming in the trenches. The Seahawks were whistled for 33 times for false starts, coughing up 160 yards. They handed over 189 yards to opponents on 20 offensive holding calls and 55 yards on 11 defensive holding penalties, as well as 63 yards on 13 defensive offside penalties.

The head referee for the Big Game is nine-year NFL veteran Bill Vinovich, who isn’t a trigger happy official, with his 2014 games averaging 12.63 penalties for 107.56 total yards (NFL average: 13.21 / 110.70). He’s been that way for his career as well, averaging 12.19 flags for 101.85 yards (NFL average in that span: 12.82 / 106.61).

Total bettors can look at these numbers two ways: 1. Both teams get penalized a lot, extra yards and the clock stops – great for Over bettors. 2. NFL doesn’t want its showcase game bogged down with stoppages and having Vinovich letting some things go could help the defense – leaning to the Under.

Seattle went 2-3 O/U in the five games in which Vinovich was the referee since 2012, including Week 3 and 14 this season. The Seahawks were flagged seven times for 34 yards in Week 3’s win over Denver but were rung up a season-high 14 times for 105 yards against in Week 14’s win at San Francisco. The Patriots were 2-0 O/U in games in which he was the ref this season, including the Divisional win over the Ravens that saw seven calls for 60 yards against New England. The other game with Vinovich holding the whistle, the Patriots were called for five penalties for 51 yards in a win over Miami in Week 15.

In the games in which New England was flagged for nine or more penalties this season, the Patriots finished 5-2 Over/Under. For the Seahawks, their six games with nine or more flags thrown resulted in a 4-2 Over/Under count.

**TheGame** · 01-30-2015, 01:24 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Advantage - New England
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Patriots are playing in their sixth Super Bowl in 14 years, the most appearances in NFL history in a 15-year span or less. New England finished the regular season with at least 12 wins for the fifth straight season, while capturing its 11th AFC East title in the last 12 years. Now, the Bill Belichick’s squad will try to turn around their recent misfortune in a pair of Super Bowl losses to the Giants by claiming the franchise’s fourth Super Bowl title.

New England’s offense averaged the fourth-most points per game this season at 29.3, nearly a two-point improvement from 2013. The Pats faced seven of the top 10 passing defenses in the league, as Tom Brady and the offense put up impressive numbers. For the exception of the Week 4 clunker at Kansas City in which Brady was limited to 159 yards passing, the Pro Bowler torched Buffalo (361 yards) and San Diego (317 yards) on the road, both top four passing defenses. The Seahawks rank first in the league in this category, but down the stretch they faced Drew Stanton, a down Colin Kaepernick twice, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, and Shaun Hill.

The Patriots’ offensive line gave Brady plenty of time this season, as he was sacked only 26 times, which is tied for fourth-fewest in the league. On the flip side, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson was taken down 42 times, which ranked 20th in the NFL. Brady saw improvement in this category from 2013, when he was sacked 40 times. Seattle is known for its strong secondary, as it didn’t have as much success up front with only 37 sacks, which was 20th best in the league.

New England won six of seven games against playoff teams this season, with the lone blemish coming at Green Bay in Week 13 in a 26-21 setback. The Patriots trailed the Packers, 16-14 late in the second quarter, but Aaron Rodgers connected with Jordy Nelson on a 45-yard touchdown pass in the final seconds of the half to give Green Bay a 23-14 advantage. That loss was the only one against an NFC foe, as the Patriots won three of four times in interconference action. In the six victories over playoff competition, New England eclipsed the 34-point mark each time, including at least 42 points against three AFC squads (Indianapolis twice, Cincinnati, and Denver).

The Pats are listed as in the pointspread range from pick-em to a 3 ½-point favorite in the playoffs for only the sixth time in the Brady/Belichick era, going 2-2-1 ATS. New England opened as short underdogs when the line was released following its victory over Indianapolis in the AFC title game, as the Pats are 10-4 ATS when receiving points since 2011.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson gives his spin on the Seahawks playing with smoke and mirrors during their eight-game winning streak, “Seattle has not looked very impressive in two playoff wins despite the great home field edge and they faced very poor competition down the stretch in the dominant finish to the regular season. Carolina out-gained the Seahawks in the divisional round in what was a much closer game than the final four and the win over Green Bay was little to do with what Seattle did right, rather it was one of the great NFL playoff chokes in history as the Packers controlled nearly the entire game, but continually failed in several opportunities to close out the game.”

Nelson points out several things have changed with the Seahawks from last season’s Super Bowl run, “Statistically, Seattle was a slightly worse team than last season on both sides of the ball and that was a year with a much stronger NFC West division. Seattle won’t be able to afford a slow start in this matchup like they have had in the first two playoff wins and the Seahawks are unlikely to get 16 points from defense and special teams plays as they did in the Super Bowl last season as New England was one of the few teams with a better turnover margin than Seattle. Bet against the Patriots in a potentially close game at your own peril as New England is on a 20-4 ATS run in games with a spread in between -3 and +3.”

The last time the Seahawks and Patriots met up came back in 2012 at CenturyLink Field in Wilson’s rookie season. New England jumped out to a 23-10 advantage before Seattle rallied for a 24-23 victory by scoring a pair of touchdowns in the final seven minutes of regulation. The Pats outgained the Seahawks, 475-368, while New England ran 30 more plays than Seattle (85-55). A positive coming from the defensive side for the Pats was limiting Marshawn Lynch to 41 yards on 15 carries. In five career game against New England (dating back to his days with Buffalo), Lynch has averaged 53 yards a game, as his personal best is 79 yards, which came back in September 2010.

The Seahawks’ defense couldn’t contain tight ends this season, allowing 11 touchdowns to players at that position, which is the third-most given up by any team. Following a slow start, Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski picked up at least 68 yards in 10 of his final 11 regular season games, while posting 108 yards in the divisional playoff win over Baltimore. Gronkowski scored 14 touchdowns this season, but he racked up exactly one touchdown in 11 games, meaning it’s a good bet he may get in the end zone on Sunday.

**TheGame** · 01-31-2015, 09:37 PM

Re: Super Bowl Betting Info

Super Bowl XLIX Betting Preview
By Covers.com

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (Pick, 47.5)

Deflate-gate: Whether one views it as a burgeoning scandal or merely a lot of hot air, the the saga of underinflated footballs has dwarfed what looms as a classic showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots in in Sunday's Super Bowl XLIX at Glendale, Ariz. The Patriots have staunchly denied any wrongdoing in the controversy stemming from the AFC title game as they attempt to win their fourth Super Bowl in 14 seasons - and first in 10 years - while preventing Seattle from becoming the first repeat champion since New England won back-to-back crowns in 2003-04. The Seahawks embarrassed one future Hall of Fame quarterback by manhandling Peyton Manning and Denver 43-8 a year ago and look for an encore against Tom Brady and Co. in another matchup of top-seeded teams.

The Ties That Bind: Brady already owns a number of postseason records and can join Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only quarterbacks with four Super Bowl victories, but counterpart Russell Wilson will become the youngest QB to start two Super Bowls and the first to appear in two in his first three seasons after leading a stunning comeback in the NFC Championship Game. “Russell and Tom Brady are both great winners,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said. “Tom has had a long time to prove that. Russell is at the early stages of proving that to the world. But he’s got a chance to be similar.” Carroll was head coach of New England for three seasons before he was replaced in 2000 by Bill Belichick, who has won a record 21 postseason games and joins Don Shula as the only head coaches to reach six Super Bowls.

Beast Mode(s): Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is a man of few words, accumulating fines for his refusal to speak to the media at nearly that same rate as he finds the end zone, but he is the centerpiece of Seattle's offense - to the point where teammate Doug Baldwin said the Seahawks' goal "is to make Marshawn Lynch the MVP of the Super Bowl and if we do that, obviously we're going to win." Serving a similar role for the Patriots is tight end Rob Gronkowski, a matchup nightmare at 6-6, 265 pounds who will be pitted against Seattle's Legion of Boom secondary, Gronkowski was hobbled by a high-ankle sprain in New England's loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI but came back from a serious knee injury at the end of 2013 to catch 12 touchdown passes this season, including one in each his the past five games.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened this game anywhere from a Pick to Seahawks -1 with most now offering a Pick or Seahawks +1. The total opened anywhere from 48 to 49 with most now offering 47.5.

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - C Bryan Stork (Probable, knee). Seahawks - CB Richard Sherman (Probable, elbow), S Earl Thomas (Probable, shoulder), S Jeron Johnson (Probable, elbow), T Justin Britt (Probable, knee).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "I can't provide a lean in terms if the side as I have an official play released. I can recommend a play on the Under as I feel this number sits a shade too high. Give these two outstanding coaching staffs time and they'll find a way to take away their opponent's strengths on offense. I'm not convinced we see a lot of explosive plays that these two teams are known for. I think we see this game get off to a sluggish start offensively before picking up in the second half. Consider playing the first half/full game under the total." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS, 11-7 O/U): New England has rolled up 80 points in its two postseason victories and prevailed in contrasting styles, erasing a pair of 14-point deficits behind 367 yards and three touchdowns from Brady to outlast Baltimore 35-31 despite a postseason record-low 14 yards rushing. Running back LeGarrette Blount, signed in November after he was cut loose by Pittsburgh, did the heavy lifting in the 45-7 drubbing of Indianapolis by rumbling for 148 yards and three touchdowns and the 250-pounder could be primed for a heavy workload against Seattle. Two-time Super Bowl MVP Brady has reliable weapons at his disposal with Julian Edelman (92 receptions) and Brandon LaFell (74 catches) complementing Gronkowski, who has 54 TD receptions in 65 career regular-season games. The Patriots' secondary doesn't receive the notoriety of that of Seattle, but it also features a pair of stellar cornerbacks in All-Pro Darrelle Revis and ex-Seahawk Brandon Browner.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (14-4 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 10-8 O/U): Seattle surrendered a total of 39 points in winning its final six regular-season contests, but Wilson showed poise beyond his years in the overtime victory against Green Bay, overcoming four interceptions to lead a pair of touchdown drives in the final four minutes to erase a 16-point halftime deficit. Wilson also is dangerous on the run, rushing for 849 yards and six scores to keep teams from becoming too preoccupied with Lynch, who amassed 157 yards and a score versus the Packers and has 48 rushing TDs in his four seasons with the Seahawks. Wilson's top targets are Doug Baldwin (66 receptions) and Jermaine Kearse, who has one TD reception in each of the two postseason wins - including the overtime game-winner in the NFC title game. Seattle has key concerns in the secondary with All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman nursing an elbow injury and hard-hitting safety Earl Thomas dealing with an ailing shoulder.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 60 percent of users are backing the Patriots in the Big Game.

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