NFL Betting Info. Week 5

[TheGame]

2-Minute Handicap
Playbook.com

WEEK 5

Thursday, Oct 3

Buffalo 7-0 A off SU dog win Games 5-8... 5-1 L6 VS AFC North
CLEVELAND 4-0 as HF vs AFC East... 6-1 home off SU div dog win...1-5 after Bengals... 2-7-1 L10 as HF's< 3 pts off SU loss

Sunday, Oct 6

Kansas City 4-0 off SU win vs non-conf opp off SU loss... 0-5 as favs off BB SU wins
TENNESSEE 6-14 SU and 3-16-1 ATS vs AFC West... 3-12-1 H when .500 exact

Baltimore SERIES: 3-10 L13... 5-2-1 ATS vs AFC East
MIAMI 0-6 ATS as favs vs AFC North... 0-6 as HF Games 5-8 ... 4-15 SU vs AFC North

New England 6-0 as favs vs opp off BB SU losses... 9-1 off BB SUATS wins vs opp off BB SU losses... 4-1 2nd game BB RG ... 2-5-1 vs AFC North
CINNCINATI SERIES: 0-3 L3G... 10-1 non-div HD's... 1-8 SU ATS vs AFC East

Seattle SERIES: 1-3 L4G... 8-1 as non-conf favs off BB SU wins
INDIANAPOLIS 8-1 off BB SUATS wins vs opp off SU wins... 1-8 as non-conf dogs vs opp off BB SUATS wins

Detroit SERIES: 3-11 L14G / 1-3 L 4 A ... 4-0 as RD's < 6 pts w /revenge... 1-5 off SU win vs opp w /rest... Schwartz: 5-1 as RD < 6 pts
GREEN BAY 7-0 with rest ... 9-1 off SUATS loss... 6-1 after allow 31 > pts...16-3 as favs < 7 pts

New Orleans SERIES: 4-1-1 L6G... 5-0 as favs off 3+ SU wins ... 0-6 as dogs in 1st of BB RG's
CHICAGO 8-2 vs opp off 3+ ATS wins... 1-7 SU and 0-6-2 ATS off SU fav loss

Philadelphia 8-0 as RD > 3 pts w/revenge vs conf opp ... 1-5 vs div in Game Five or less
NY GIANTS SERIES: 1-4 L5 H... 1-5 as favs 10 < pts vs < . 400 opp... 2-9 as div fav > 3 pts

Carolina 5-1 after score 35 > pts vs non- div opp... 0-7 as non-div RF off SUATS win... Rivera: 4-0 vs opp off SU dog win
ARIZONA SERIES: 2-5 L7G... 7-0 as HD's vs < .500 non-div opp

San Diego 4-1 a div RF < 5 pts ... 0-4 as RF's 5 > pts
OAKLAND SERIES 6-2 L8G / 2-9 L11 H ... 0-5 in 2nd of BB HG's vs. .250 > opp

Denver 5-0 A vs opp off SU fav loss... 9-0 O/U vs non-div opp w/ OU line < 50 pts
DALLAS SERIES 1-7 L8G... Coach Garrett: 4-0 as dog 4 > pts / 5-1 as non-div opp off SU loss

Houston 9-2 as dogs off non-conf game... 0-4 A vs NFC West
SAN FRANCISCO 4-2-1 vs AFC South... 2-8 as non-conf favs 3 > pts

Monday, Oct 7

New York Jets 5-1 as Mon dogs < 8 pts ...8-2 in 2nd of BB RG's vs <.500 opp... Ryan: 1-7 as dog < 9 pts
ATLANTA SERIES: 3-1 L 4... 6-1 as favs in 2nd of BB HG's... 4-1 as non-div HF's <10 pts off non-conf game


ABBREVIATIONS LEGEND: For the most part, results are presented in this order: Series, Good Results, Bad Results, Over/Under Totals and Coaches Results. All team and coaches results are Against The Spread and pertain to preseason - unless noted otherwise. (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game). ATS = Against The Spread, SU = Straight Up, A = Away, H = Home, Dog = Underdog, Fav = Favorite, L = Last, N = Neutral. OVER/UNDER results in Over (first) / Under (second) sequence. Site Numbers (Home One, Home Two; Away One, Away Two) designate 1st or 2nd home or road games of preseason. Dual team or coaches results - Straight-Up and Against The Spread - are separated with a ' / '. Asterisk * = check team previous game for possible similar result.

[TheGame]

Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 4 Recap

The ‘over’ produced a 9-6 record last week thanks to handful of shootouts in the late afternoon games and primetime matchups, which is turning into a common theme this season. The early games (1:00 p.m. ET) have been leaning ‘under’ recently while the second set and late-night battles have had its fair share of high-scoring results. On the season, the ‘over’ has gone 32-31.

Denver, Chicago and Minnesota are the only teams to see all four of their games go ‘over’ this season. On the other side of that spectrum, Tampa Bay and Kansas City have both watched the ‘under’ go 4-0.

Line Moves

After four weeks of action in the NFL, the house has gotten the better of the betting public but I would say that total bettors have had the upper hand. Last week, we had five games that saw their total move by 1½ points or more, either up or down. If you followed the move, you would’ve went 4-1 (80%). On the season, the moves are 15-3 (83%). I only post the moves from CRIS, a major offshore sportsbook, who releases their numbers on Sunday. Every Saturday, we compare open numbers to current and provide you the information. Personally, I’d be surprised to see the results improve this week, especially with seven games receiving extra attention.

Kansas City at Tennessee: Line opened 41 and dropped to 38½
Jacksonville at St. Louis: Line opened 43 and dropped to 41
Detroit at Green Bay: Line opened 51½ and jumped to 53½
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: Line opened 55 and dropped to 53½
San Diego at Oakland: Line opened 44 and jumped to 45½
Denver at Dallas: Line opened 54 and jumped to 56
Houston at San Francisco: Line opened 42½ and dropped to 41

Early Season Trends

VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence pointed out some great total trends that have developed in the first quarter of the season. He said, “The best OVER situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) as these games have gone 15-7 to the OVER. The best UNDER situation has occurred in same conference non-division games, going 7-15 to the UNDER.”

Based on Marc’s homework…

The matchups that fit the OVER trends in Week 5 are listed below:

Jacksonville at St. Louis
Seattle at Indianapolis
Denver at Dallas
Houston at San Francisco
N.Y. Jets at Atlanta

The matchups that fit the UNDER trends in Week 5 are listed below:

Kansas City at Tennessee
Baltimore at Miami
New England at Cincinnati
New Orleans at Chicago
Carolina at Arizona
Buffalo at Cleveland (Note - The Browns beat the Bills 37-24 on Thursday and the ‘over’ easily cashed)

Divisional Trends

Detroit at Green Bay: The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the last four meaningful games between this pair and we stress the word meaningful because the lone ‘over’ occurred in Week 17 of the 2012 season. If you don’t recall, it’s when then Packers backup QB Matt Flynn diced up the Lions 45-41 in a wild shootout. The Packers are off the Bye and if you’re not aware, head coach Mike McCarthy has gone 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS with a week of rest in the regular season. During that span, the ‘under’ has gone 5-2.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants: The ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series. Philadelphia has scored 7, 19, 17 and 16 points during this span but most would expect that to change with the new fast-paced approach of Eagles head coach Chip Kelly. Make a note that the Eagles (34.5) and Giants (36.5) own the worst two scoring defensive units in the league.

San Diego at Oakland: (See Below)

Under the Lights

After watching the Cleveland-Buffalo shootout this past Thursday, the ‘over’ has now cashed in six consecutive primetime games. On the season, the ‘over’ is 10-4 (71%) in games played under the lights. Due to a time change, bettors have three matchups to follow this weekend.

San Francisco at Houston: Even though the AFC-NFC encounters this season have been high-scoring, I’m leaning more to the ‘under’ in this spot and here’s why. Houston (254.3 YPG, 26.3 PPG) and San Francisco (299.8 YPG, 23.8 PPG) are ranked first and third in total defense yet they’ve been allowing points. Those scoring numbers include defensive and special teams touchdowns. Houston has given up four already this season, three in the last two weeks which resulted losses. You can’t handicap turnovers but if the Texans and 49ers stick to their ground games and don’t make mistakes, a low-scoring affair is in the works.

San Diego at Oakland: Due to the Oakland Athletics playing Game 2 on Saturday night, the Coliseum wouldn’t be ready for action for Sunday afternoon so this game will be played at 11:35 p.m. ET. For bettors, it gives you one last chance to press or chase. The total has gone 1-1 in each of the regular season meetings that past three years. QB Terrelle Pryor (concussion) is expected to return for Oakland but is he really a different maker? RB Darren McFaden is ‘doubtful’ and that certainly doesn’t help. The Chargers offense and QB Philip Rivers garner most of the exposure in San Diego but the defense deserves some notice too. The team has surrendered 41 points the last two weeks, seven coming late against Tennessee in Week 3, plus Dallas only put up 20 points last Sunday and one score was a pick-six touchdown.

N.Y. Jets at Atlanta: The Falcons have seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in their last three and 2-0 at the Georgia Dome this season. Some of those results were lucky, especially last week’s against New England, which saw 30 combined points scored in the fourth quarter. Based on what we’ve seen in two road games, rookie QB Geno Smith has only been able to muster up 10 and 13 points. In those games, he’s accounted for seven turnovers (5 INTs) and been sacked nine times. I wouldn’t expect a change anytime soon but those mistakes can lead to short tracks for Atlanta’s offense or even defensive touchdowns.

Fearless Predictions

Anytime a game goes into overtime, the ‘over’ more than likely cashes and that’s been the case this season. Unfortunately for me, I’ve been on the ‘under’ in both of those games and coincidentally Houston was involved each time. Including those losses, our Best Bets are 4-2 (67%) on the season. We did snap the Team Total streak (1-2) last week but our Teaser play was hurt by the shootout in London. On the season, we’re down 30 cents ($30). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Jacksonville-St. Louis 41
Best Under: New England-Cincinnati 45
Best Team Total: Over Jacksonville 14½

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 32 Jacksonville-St. Louis
Over 33½ Carolina-Arizona
Under 53 N.Y. Jets-Atlanta

[TheGame]

Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 5 of the NFL
By Covers.com

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The last time the New England Patriots were 5-0 to start a season, they finished 16-0 (2007). The are in Cincy to face the Bengals with the line as a Pick.

- Speaking of those Bengals, they have lost seven of eight versus the Pats and have lost all four with Tom Brady under center.

- Where were you when....the Detroit Lions last won in Green Bay? The Pack have won 21-straight football games at Lambeau versus the Lions and are 15-5-1 ATS in that stretch. The last Lions victory at Green Bay was in 1991.

- Despite Green Bay's home dominance over the Lions, Matthew Stafford tossed a career-high 520 yards at Lambeau in the regular season finale tow seasons ago.

- The Seattle Seahawks defense has seven interceptions on the season and have recorded multi-INT games in three straight. The Seahawks are 1-point road faves in Indy Sunday.

- The Colts defense is 29th in the NFL allowing opponents to score on 75 percent of their trips inside the red zone.

- Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has completed just three-of-nine passes of 20 yards or more this season. Only the Chiefs, Jags and Lions have completed fewer.

- The Dolphins host the Baltimore Ravens with a total of 43.5 Sunday. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.

- The hot New Orleans Saints are in Chicago to face the Bears. The two teams have combined to play over the total in five straight meetings in the Windy City. Sunday's total is 50.

- Drew Brees' 59.4 percent completion percentage against the Chicago Bears is his second lowest against any opponent. Only a 57.4 clip against Washington is worse.

- The dog is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. Philly is currently a 1-point road dog Sunday.

- The Kansas City Chiefs are the top consensus play at 74 percent. The Chiefs are 2.5-point road faves at Tennessee.

- The Chiefs at Titans matchups looks to be a defensive battle. The Chiefs allow a league-low 10.3 points per game and the Titans rank seventh, allowing 17.3.

- The Jacksonville Jaguars and St. Louis Rams have faced each other three times. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in those three meetings.

- The Jags' 31 points scored is the lowest - by 13 - in the league thus far.

- Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams has rushed for 417 yards and two TDs in four meetings with Arizona, including three 100-yard games.

- The Denver Broncos are in Dallas Sunday as 7.5-point faves. The Broncos have won 15 consecutive regular-season games, each by seven points or more.

- 49ers S Donte Whitner has changed his name to Donte Hitner. This is a thing that happened.

- The Houston Texans struggle against the spread in Week 5 for some reason. They are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Week 5 games. They'll give it a shot Sunday as 6-point road dogs in San Fran Sunday night.

- Because of Sunday Oakland A's playoff game, the Chargers/Raiders game has switched t 11:35 p.m. ET Sunday night.

- The Chargers have won 16 of 19 meetings with the Raiders and are 4.5-point road faves for this late tilt.

[TheGame]

Sunday's NFL Week 5 Betting Cheat Sheet: Late Action
By Covers.com

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 41.5)

After losing its first two games by a total of six points, Carolina turned in a dominant performance against the Giants, rolling up 402 total yards and holding New York to 150. Williams has rushed for 417 yards and two TDs in four meetings with Arizona, including three 100-yard games.

The Arizona defense has been dominant against the run - ranking second in the league - but will have its work cut out against a Panthers team averaging 151 yards on the ground, though unit should be bolstered by the return of linebacker Daryl Washington after he missed the first four games for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Arizona +1. Total moved 42 to 41.5.

WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 56)

Denver is putting up 44.8 points and nearly 500 yards of offense. That offense is masking some potential issues on the other side of the ball, where the Broncos rank in the bottom third of the league in total defense. The Broncos have won 15 consecutive regular-season games, each by seven points or more.

Dallas is down two defensive starters in linebacker Justin Durant (groin) and defensive end George Selvie (concussion), who are uncertain for Sunday’s game. That puts even more pressure on Tony Romo and the offense to put up points. Romo is completing 72.4 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and one interception but could be missing WR Miles Austin (hamstring) questionable.

LINE: Opened Denver -7 and moved as high as -8.5. Total moved 54 to 56.

WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 41.5)

Houston ranks second in the AFC in total offense (410.3 yards per game) and leads the NFL in total defense (254.3) but is minus-4 in turnover margin. The Texans expect linebacker Brian Cushing to clear the concussion protocol on Friday and be eligible to play after leaving last week's game in the third quarter.

Colin Kaepernick has been limited in the ground game but rebounded from a pair of poor passing games to throw two touchdown passes against St. Louis. The 49ers lead the NFC in total defense (299.8 yards per game) despite playing without star linebacker Patrick Willis (groin) last week, but they plan to have Willis back Sunday.

LINE: Opened Houston -6.5 and moved to -6. Total moved 42.5 to 41.5.

WEATHER: Mid 60s, clear skies, winds W 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* 49ers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.
* Over is 7-1 in 49ers last eight home games.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+4, 45)

San Diego and its already-suspect defense lost linebacker Dwight Freeney for the rest of the season with a torn quadriceps last week. Despite missing WR Malcom Floyd (neck), QB Philip Rivers and the passing game is ranked fifth in the NFL as receiver Eddie Royal (five) and tight end Antonio Gates (two) have already combined for seven receiving touchdowns.

Raiders RB Darren McFadden is questionable with a hamstring injury and RB Marcel Reece is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Their possible absence will force third-stringer Rashad Jennings into action and put a bigger onus on the unproven shoulders of Pryor, who was fairly impressive throwing for 624 yards and rushing for 198 more in his first three starts of the season.

LINE: Opened Chargers -6 and moved to -4. Total moved 44 to 45.

WEATHER: Mid 60s, clear skies, winds W 2 mph.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oakland.
* Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

[TheGame]

Sunday's NFL Week 5 Betting Cheat Sheet: Early Action
By Covers.com

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 45)

New England has not won its first five games since running the table in its 16-0 season of 2007, but it will have to overcome a major injury. Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork was lost for the season with a torn right Achilles' tendon.

Cincinnati managed only 266 total yards in the loss to Cleveland but will likely make a concerted effort to get the ground game going to exploit the absence of the massive Wilford in the middle. Former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry and could be supplanted soon by rookie Giovani Bernard, who averages 4.6 yards a pop and has 10 catches the past two weeks.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bengals -1. Total steady at 45.

WEATHER: Low 70s, 77% chance of thunder showers, winds SW 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
* Under is 10-3 in Bengals last 13 games overall.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 53.5)

The Lions have scored 122 points, putting them third in the league behind Denver (179) and Chicago (127). Detroit QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both set career highs at Green Bay on Jan. 1, 2012. Stafford passed for 520 yards while Johnson had 244 yards receiving.

Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991. Aaron Rodgers is undefeated against Detroit in eight career starts with a minimum of 15 passing attempts, going 169-of-246 for 2,239 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

LINE: Opened Packers -7.5. Total moved 52 to 53.5.

WEATHER: Mid 50s, 21% chance of rain, winds WSW 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Lions are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 43.5)

Seattle leads the NFC with a plus-seven turnover differential and has notched multiple interceptions in three consecutive games. The Seahawks hope to have defensive end Michael Bennett (2.5 sacks) available after he was removed from the field via stretcher with a back injury against Houston.

Veteran sack master Robert Mathis is wreaking havoc after a three-sack outing against the Jaguars and is tied for the NFL lead with 7.5. Indianapolis has a plus-six margin in takeaways and is allowing 12.8 points per game, fourth-best in the NFL.

LINE: Opening Seattle -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 43 to 43.5.

WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 22-8 in Colts last 30 games overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Pro Bowler Ray Rice has been held in check this season, rushing for just 89 yards on 30 carries. While Rice's numbers have dipped, wideout Torrey Smith continues to benefit from the departure of Anquan Boldin to San Francisco by amassing a career-high 166 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss to the Bills.

While Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been sacked 12 times, that number pales in comparison to the league-high 18 that Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has endured. While coach Joe Philbin dismisses the premise of a disconnect between Tannehill and offseason addition Mike Wallace, there is no denying that the two have struggled to get on the same page. The electric and outspoken wideout has just 15 receptions for 176 yards this season

LINE: Opening Miami -3.5 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 42.5 to 43.5.

WEATHER: Mid 80s, 30% chance of thunder showers, winds SSE 11 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Pick, 48.5)

While the Saints' offense has been garnering the headlines, the defense quietly has been much improved under new coordinator Rob Ryan, ranking sixth in yards allowed (304.5 per game) and fifth in points (13.8). QB Drew Brees has never won in Chicago, throwing for seven TDs and six interceptions in four career games there.

Jay Cutler is coming off a four-turnover performance in a 40-32 loss at Detroit. Despite the four turnovers at Detroit, Cutler rallied the team from a 40-16 deficit to make it a one-possession game late in the contest. He has a career-high 64.2 completion percentage under new coordinator Aaron Kromer — who was the Saints' interim coach for six games last season.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bears +1 at some books. Total moved 47.5 to 48.5.

WEATHER: Mid 50s, 17% chance of rain, winds W 14 mph

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Home team is 4-0-2 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1, 53)

Giants QB Eli Manning is leading the league with nine interceptions through four games. Some of that is due to poor pass protection. David Diehl is scheduled to make his first start of the season at right guard. The Giants are dealing with injuries on the defensive side, with tackles Linval Joseph, Cullen Jenkins and Shaun Rogers, cornerbacks Corey Webster, Jayron Hosley and Aaron Ross all dealing with injuries.

Michael Vick started out strong for Kelly in the first two weeks with a total of eight touchdowns but slumped to a combined 27-for-57 for 449 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the last two weeks. The Eagles insist they are moving forward defensively and will get a chance to prove that against turnover-prone New York.

LINE: Opened New York -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 55 to 53.

WEATHER: Mid 70s, 19% chance of rain, winds SSE 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in New York.
* Underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 38.5)

Several factors have contributed into the Chiefs' stunning start to the season, but strong second-half performances are at the top of the list. Kansas City is outscoring opponents 34-10 after the break, and has put together clock-killing drives in the fourth quarter of each of its last three games to protect slim leads.

Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been thrust into the No. 1 role after regular starter Jake Locker suffered a hip injury in the win over the Jets and will miss several weeks. Fitzpatrick appeared in 55 games with the Buffalo Bills before being cut in March, showing that the 30-year-old is no stranger to the starting role.

LINE: Opened Chiefs -3 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 39 to 38.5.

WEATHER: Low 70s, 79% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-11.5, 41)

The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in scoring and 30th in scoring defense. Among the positives on the Jacksonville side this week is the return of standout wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

St. Louis is the only team in the NFL with a worse rushing attack than Jacksonville, as the Rams average only 47.3 yards on the ground. With virtually no complimentary ground game against the 49ers, Sam Bradford completed only 19-of-41 passes, was sacked five times and turned the ball over twice.

LINE: Opened Rams -14 and moved to -11.5. Total moved 42 to 41.

WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Rams last seven home games.

[TheGame]

Week 5 NFL

Eagles (1-3) @ Giants (0-4) — Both teams in freefall; winless Giants have 12 turnovers (-9) in four games, have been outscored 100-21 in last five halves and have only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, as banged-up OL can’t open holes or protect immobile QB Manning. Big Blue has been inside opponents’ 20-yard line once in last two games. Philly has been outscored 131-74 in last seven halves, as gimmicky fast-break offense flopped because defense can’t keep other team off field- they’ve allowed first down on 21 of last 41 3rd plays) and special teams allowed two TDs last week in Denver. Eagles are 17-8 vs spread in last 25 games as road underdog (1-1 this year); since ’09, Giants are 10-18-1 as a home favorite. Philly won eight of last ten series games, splitting last four; their 42-7 loss here LY was their first in last six visits to Swamp. Home favorites in divisional games are 9-4 vs spread so far this season. Three of four Eagle games went over the total.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Titans (3-1) — Unbeaten KC was 2-14 LY, so great story being written by Reid, canned after 14 (mostly good) years in Philly; Chiefs (+9) have 12 takeaways already, have given up only four TDs on 51 drives, allowing opponent inside its red zone four times (one TD, two FGs). On offense, they’ve run ball for 120.8 ypg, converted 24-59 (40.7%) of 3rd down plays, using scatback McCluster on key plays. Titans are off to solid 3-1 start, but lost QB Locker (hip) last week; in steps veteran Fitzpatrick, making 68th (23-41-1 W-L as starter Rams/Bills) NFL start, so he’s decent backup. Tennessee is also +9 in turnovers, with no giveaways in four games. Home side lost four of last six series games; Chiefs split two visits here, with last one in ’04. AFC West teams are 11-2 vs spread outside its division, 6-1 when favored; AFC South teams are 3-8 outside its division, 2-4 as an underdog (0-2 as HU). All four Chief games stayed under the total.

Ravens (2-2) @ Dolphins (3-1) — Well-coached Miami is 7-3 vs spread under Philbin in games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite (3-2 under Philbin). Fish lost first game Monday night, getting torched by Brees’ (30-39/397) passing- they won only home game so far on last-minute TD vs Falcons. Flacco threw five picks in 23-20 loss at Buffalo last week; Ravens covered once in last five games as a road dog- they’re 0-2 on foreign soil this year, converting just 11-38 on 3rd down—think Flacco misses Boldin/Pitta? Would expect Harbaugh to try and run ball more; they had only nine carries for 24 yards at Buffalo, with 54 dropbacks. Baltimore won last three series games by 14-18-16 points; they’ve won last two visits here, after losing four of previous five. Eight of last ten series totals were 38 or less. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Raven games stayed under.

Jaguars (0-4) @ Rams (1-3) — Immense pressure on disappointing Rams to win this game, after getting smoked last three weeks, trailing 21-0/24-0/24-3 in three games; St Louis is double digit favorite for first time since ’04- they have total of 122 rushing yards in last three games, so expect them to try to establish some type of run game early on, vs Jaguar defense that allowed 177 rushing ypg in its last three tilts. Jax has been outscored 75-8 in first half of games, and that includes safety they got on blocked punt for first score of season. Rams won two of last three series games, with home side winning all three, all decided by a FG. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-1 vs spread this season; AFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside their division. Three of four Jaguar games stayed under total; three of four St Louis games went over. Jags owner Kahn tried to buy Rams but Kroenke had first dibs, as former minority (40%) owner.

Patriots (4-0) @ Bengals (2-2) — You get feeling Brady could have Tweeter from Varsity Blues as a WR and Pats would still score 30 points; they’ve only turned ball over once in last three games (+5) while converting 13-28 on third down in last two games. Unbeaten NE’s run defense will miss NT Willfork (achilles); they’ve allowed total of 155 rushing yards in last two games. Bengals scored 20-34 points in winning their two home games; they’re 4-2-1 in last seven games as home favorites, after being 3-13 in 16 games prior to that. Cincy lost field position battle in all four games, in part due to converting just 8 of last 25 third down plays. Pats are 7-2 in last nine games where spread was 3 or less points; Bengals are 16-8-1 in their last 25. Bengals lost four in row and seven of last eight series games, allowing 36.3 ppg in last four. Three of four NE games stayed under total, as Patriots allowed only one TD, four FGs on opponents’ last eight red zone drives.

Seahawks (4-0) @ Colts (3-1) — Unbeaten Seattle was down 20-3 at half in Houston last week, but defense shut Texans out in second half, scored tying TD with pick-6 in last 3:00 before they won with FG in OT, their ninth straight regular season win. Hawks ran for average of 169 ypg last three weeks, with mobile QB Wilson doing as much damage with his legs as his arm. Seattle is 3-2 in last five series games but lost two of three visits here; they’re 3-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 2-0 this year (won 12-7/23-20). Indy allowed one TD on 21 drives in sweeping road swing, including impressive 27-7 win at SF; they’re 7-4 as home dogs in post-Manning era, 8-2 SU at home under Pagano. Three of four Indy games stayed under the total. NFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside its division; NFC West teams are 7-4, 4-1 when favored. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 9-6 vs spread this season.

Lions (3-1) @ Packers (1-2) — Green Bay won 14 of last 15 series games (Rodgers didn’t play in loss), taking last four by average score of 31-24; Lions have lost 22 games in a row in Wisconsin, 19 in row at Lambeau, with last three all by 7 or less points. Last Lion win at Lambeau was 1991. Pack won its last four post-bye games, scoring 31.5 ppg, but they’re 1-2 this season, despite scoring 11 TDs on 34 drives- they lost last game in Cincinnati on fumble return for TD by Bengals in last 4:00. Detroit scored 27+ points in all three of its wins; they’ve averaged 7.4+ yards/pass attempt in three of four games. Lions had four TDs last week; one by defense, other three on drives of 51 or less yards, so defense/special teams are creating easier chances for what is a good offense. Bush returned to spark run game (159 yards) last week (76.3/first three games). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-5 vs spread this year, 3-3 if spread is more than five points. All three Packer games went over the total.

Saints (4-0) @ Bears (3-1) — Curious to see Saints in second road (outdoor) game; offense was dominant (11 TDs/31 drives) in three home wins, but they were lucky to win 16-14 on stormy Week 2 day in Tampa, kicking three FGs on four trips in Bucs’ red zone, plus throwing a pick-6. Lack of running game (81.3 ypg) could hurt here by prolific Bear team scoring 31.8 ppg (9 TDs on last 37 drives, plus three defensive TDs in last three games). Chicago has 3+ takeaways in all four games (+5). NO is 9-5 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points, 6-4 in last ten non-divisional road games. Home side won last five series games with average total in last four, 51.3; Saints lost last6 three visits here by 25-8-3 points. NFC South road teams are 0-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North teams are 3-4-1 outside their division. All four Chicago games went over total, with average total, 60.3; three of four New Orleans games stayed under total.

Panthers (1-2) @ Cardinals (2-2) — Carolina won seven of last nine series games, winning four of last five visits here; Rivera is 0-2 in post-bye games, losing 30-2/19-14. Panthers are 5-14 in first half of season in his tenure, 9-7 in second half. Carolina’s two losses are by total of six points, as Bills drove length of field in last minute to nip Carolina 24-23 in its only road game. Arizona beat Detroit in its only home game, despite giving up a defensive TD; three of their four games were decided by 4 or less points. Cardinals 2-0 in games with spreads of 3 or less points this year, after being 4-10-1 in last 15 such games under Whisenhunt. NFC South non-divisional road teams are 0-4 vs spread this season; NFC West teams are 7-4 outside their division. Arizona struggled on offense (two TDs/24 drives) in splitting pair on road last two weeks; they’re 7-34 on 3rd down last three games, but Fitzgerald had strong half last week, as Redbirds rallied from 10-0 down at half to win at Tampa.

Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3) — San Diego won last three series games by 12-8-3 points; they’ve won eight of last nine visits here, with only loss in ’10. Three of Bolts’ four games were won by exactly three points; Rivers seems rejuvenated (25-50 on 3rd down, only two INTs), averaging 8.6/6.7/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last three games. Flynn was disappointing (18-31/217, two turnovers) in first Oakland start; Raiders are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog- they’ve had only 13 plays of 20+ yards in first four games. Chargers scored 28+ points in three of four games, and lost fourth game in last minute in Nashville- they’re 7-12 in last 19 games as a road favorite. Divisional home dogs are 4-2 vs spread this season. Three of four Charger games went over total; three of four Oakland games stayed under. Game has been pushed back to 11:30 ET Sunday night because of time needed to switch from baseball configuration to football.

Broncos (4-0) @ Cowboys (2-2) — Dallas plays Tampa 2 defense which Colts ran when Dungy coached there, so Manning practiced against it for seven years; Rivers was 35-42/392 against Cowboys last week, what will #18 do here? Chargers averaged 8.2 yards/pass attempt vs Dallas, Eli Manning averaged 9.5 in opener; Pokes will need to play their A game to stay in this one. Denver is a juggernaut right now, scoring 39.8 ppg in first four games (20 TDs on 44 drives, only eight 3/outs, with three special teams TDs as well). Broncos wear defenses out; they’ve scored 31+ second half points in three of four games and have 13 TDs, one FG in 17 red zone drives. Dallas scored 67 points in winning its two home games this year; they’re 4-2 as home dogs since ’06, 2-1 under Garrett. Broncos are 7-2 as road favorites under Fox, 14-2 as favorites with Manning at QB. NFC East teams are 3-9 vs spread outside the division, 2-5 on road, 1-4 if getting points.

Texans (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2) — Schaub has thrown pick-6 in three straight games, including horrific one last week in last 3:00 while Houston was in Seattle territory nursing 20-13 lead; brutal loss for Texans, who led 20-3 at half and have struggled beating the better teams. Houston has only two TDs on 24 drives in last two games; they had 6-0 lead at Baltimore in Week 3 before giving up TDs on offense/special teams in 90-second span, so they’ve been beating themselves. 49ers scored 34-35 points in two wins, 3-7 in two losses; they turned ball over seven times (-6) in two losses. Niners are 12-4-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 1-1 this year. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 3-8 outside the division, 2-4 on road, 2-4 as underdogs. Home side won only two games in series, with both games decided by FG. Non-divisional home favorites of 7+ points are 7-4 vs spread. Three of four Houston games went over the total.

Jets (2-2) @ Falcons (1-3) — Jets are making way too many mistakes to win, and its not all the rookie QB; they’ve turned ball over 12 times (-10) and in last three games, they committed 38 penalties for 300 yards, which helped create field position deficits of 16-9-18 yards. Two takeaways in four games ( none in last three games) isn’t good. Atlanta failed in last-minute red zone drives on offense in Weeks 1,4, on defense in Week 3, or else they could just as easily be 4-0; Smith is 19-5 vs spread coming off loss, but something is missing with Atlanta, which is 22-12-1 as home favorite under Smith. Would expect Atlanta to try and run ball more; they’ve run ball more than 16 times in only one of four games with Jackson out of lineup. Jets are 7-12 as road underdogs under Rex Ryan, 1-7 in last eight as a non-divisional road dog. Atlanta was torched (9.2/10.2 yards/attempt) by two quality QBs they faced (Brees/Brady) but Smith isn’t in that category—Falcons held Bradford/Tannehill to 6.4/4.9.

[TheGame]

NFL Top 5: Teams Struggling Against The Spread

Though the NFL season is just a month old, several teams find themselves struggling mightily against the spread. Whether it's overambitious lines, poor execution or simply a poor roster, these teams find themselves facing an uphill battle when it comes to rewarding - or in this case, restoring - bettors' faith.

Here are five teams that have yet to hit paydirt against the spread:

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Jaguars aren't just bad - they're on pace to be historically awful. Jacksonville has recorded just three offensive touchdowns through the first four games of the season - equaling the number of scores the Houston Texans have just on interception returns. In hindsight, Oddsmakers were downright generous installing the Jaguars as 3.5-point underdogs in their first two games. They didn't come close despite being given 19.5 points against Seattle, then destroyed bettors' hopes for a bounceback with a 34-point loss to Indianapolis the following week.

The Jaguars are listed as 11.5-point underdogs for Sunday's game in St. Louis.

Houston Texans (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Texans have been offensively uneven since the start of the season, and they can blame quarterback Matt Schaub for much of that. Schaub has six interceptions against eight touchdowns through the first four games and has been unable to improvise when plays break down, following his playbook to a fault. Those mistakes have almost always swung the momentum in the opponents' favor, translating into four straight blown covers. Houston is fortunate to be at the .500 mark after needing a sensational fourth-quarter rally to beat the San Diego Padres in Week 1 before prevailing in overtime the following week against the Tennessee Titans.

The Texans are installed as 7-point underdogs for their showdown in San Francisco Sunday night.

New York Giants (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

No team has been a bigger surprise - or disappointment - than the Giants, who have gone from potential Super Bowl contenders to playoff long shots in four short weeks. While they nearly covered in a narrow Week 1 loss to Dallas - given 3.5 points but losing by five - the Giants have been a disaster every week since, losing to Denver, Carolina and Kansas City by a combined 80 points. The once-vaunted New York defense has allowed a league-high 10 passing touchdowns and is surrendering more than 120 rushing yards per game.

The Giants are a 1-point favorite for Sunday's divisional battle with the visiting Philadelphia Eagles.

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger recently declared his team the worst in the league. And while that distinction belongs firmly to Jacksonville, Big Ben isn't far off. Pittsburgh has struggled throughout its four-game opening skid and only came close to covering once (dropping a 10-point decision to Cincinnati in which the Steelers were 7-point underdogs.) Like the Giants, Pittsburgh has been gashed on the ground. It's surrendering the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL and its six touchdowns against are a league worst.

Pittsburgh enjoys a Week 5 bye before returning to action against the Jets in New York on Oct. 13.

St. Louis Rams (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS)

Hopes were high following a 7-8-1 showing a season ago, but the Rams haven't been able to sustain the strong defensive effort they displayed in 2012. Only the Giants, Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings have permitted more points than St. Louis, which has been torched via the rush (534 yards against, five touchdowns) and through the air (1,015 yards against, nine touchdowns). Quarterback Sam Bradford has also had problems, completing less than 60 percent of his passes while ranking 23rd in the league in quarterback rating.

St. Louis is listed as an 11.5-point favorite for Sunday's game against visiting Jacksonville.

[TheGame]

NFL Betting

Weather Report: Sunday's Forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (Pick, 45)

There is a 90 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7, 53.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 17 percent chance of rain.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Forecasts in Miami are calling for a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Pick, 50)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a small chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1, 53)

There is a slight 18 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 38.5)

Forecasts in Nashville are calling for an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 41.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+4.5, 45)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.

[TheGame]

MNF - Jets at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Falcons have been a tough team to figure out through four games, as the defending NFC South champions need a win on Monday night to get on the playoff track. The Jets play their second straight road contest after getting blown out at Tennessee last week, but New York owns the better record heading into this matchup at the Georgia Dome.

Following New Orleans' victory at Chicago on Sunday, the Falcons are in danger of falling four games behind the Saints in the NFC South with a loss on Monday. Atlanta is listed as a double-digit favorite after getting tripped up by New England last Sunday night, 30-23. After a field goal to take a 3-0 advantage, the Falcons never led again, while falling behind by as many as 14 points as Mike Smith's team failed to cash as three-point favorites. Matt Ryan threw for 421 yards, but the Atlanta running game did very little by accumulating 58 yards.

The Jets have turned into a surprise for bettors by covering three of four games so far, while splitting their first four contests straight-up. New York can pull into second-place tie in the AFC East with Miami if the Jets can grab a road win tonight, but Rex Ryan's club has lost each of their first two away contests. The Jets cashed as 11-point underdogs at New England in Week 2, but New York was rolled at Tennessee last Sunday, 38-13 as 4 ½-point underdogs. New York fell behind, 24-6 at halftime, while turning the ball over four times.

Under Smith, the Falcons own a solid 6-1 SU/ATS record off a home loss dating back to 2008, as Atlanta fell into this situation just once last season. The Falcons dropped the regular season finale to Tampa Bay, then held off Seattle in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, 30-28, but failed to cash as 2 ½-point favorites. In the last five seasons, the Falcons have suffered through just one three-game ATS skid (in 2011), while posting a 4-1-1 ATS mark off consecutive ATS losses in this stretch.

The last time these teams hooked up was a real barnburner at Met Life Stadium, as Atlanta held off New York, 10-7 to cash outright as six-point road underdogs in 2009. The Falcons won that contest in December in spite of being out of the playoff race, but that victory spurred a three-game winning streak to end that campaign at 9-7. The loss didn't affect the Jets, who eventually fell to the Colts in the AFC Championship.

The Jets have never won at Georgia Dome in three visits since 1992, which includes a 27-14 defeat to the Falcons in 2005. That game took place on a Monday night coincidentally, as Atlanta cruised to victory as eight-point favorites, while the game barely cashed the 'over' of 40.

The Falcons started the 2012 season by hitting the 'under' in seven of eight home games. However, Atlanta sailed 'over' the total in its two home playoff contests against Seattle and San Francisco, while drilling the 'over' in the first two games at the Georgia Dome this season against St. Louis and New England. The loss to the Patriots last week snapped an eight-game home winning streak against AFC foes since 2009.

In Ryan's tenure, the Jets are just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in Monday night action, including losses last season to the Texans and Titans. However, New York has been profitable as an underdog of at least nine points by putting up an 8-2 ATS record since 2007.

Atlanta is a losing proposition when laying at least nine points under Smith by posting a 4-5 ATS record. The Falcons failed to cover as heavy favorites in home wins last season against the Raiders and Cardinals, but won each of these games straight-up. Surprisingly, this is only the third Monday night game at the Georgia Dome since 2008, as the Falcons lost to the Saints in 2010, while holding off the Broncos last season in Week 2.

[TheGame]

MNF Week 5

Jets (2-2) @ Falcons (1-3) — Jets are making way too many mistakes to win, and its not all the rookie QB; they’ve turned ball over 12 times (-10) and in last three games, they committed 38 penalties for 300 yards, which helped create field position deficits of 16-9-18 yards. Two takeaways in four games ( none in last three games) isn’t good. Atlanta failed in last-minute red zone drives on offense in Weeks 1,4, on defense in Week 3, or else they could just as easily be 4-0; Smith is 19-5 vs spread coming off loss, but something is missing with Atlanta, which is 22-12-1 as home favorite under Smith. Would expect Atlanta to try and run ball more; they’ve run ball more than 16 times in only one of four games with Jackson out of lineup. Jets are 7-12 as road underdogs under Rex Ryan, 1-7 in last eight as a non-divisional road dog. Atlanta was torched (9.2/10.2 yards/attempt) by two quality QBs they faced (Brees/Brady) but Smith isn’t in that category—Falcons held Bradford/Tannehill to 6.4/4.9.

[TheGame]

NY JETS (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 3) - 10/7/2013, 8:40 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


NY JETS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home


NY Jets at Atlanta
NY Jets: 0-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Atlanta: 17-5 UNDER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

[TheGame]

NFC News and Notes from Week 5
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 5.

Chicago Bears - Chicago entered the game with only six sacks on the season, a notable weakness on a defense that's heavily reliant on creating turnovers. They got a little bit of pressure on Drew Brees here, but not enough. The Bears played a lot of Cover-2 today and it gave the Saints fits for a while, forcing Brees into dink-and-dunk’ mode. But Sean Payton made play calling adjustments, and Chicago’s defense didn’t adjust back, leaving Jimmy Graham in store for a huge afternoon.

Marc Trestman was a pointspread monster during his tenure with the Montreal Alouettes in one role in particular: coming off a loss. In his first NFL try in that same role, that success did not translate.

For the second straight week, this rebuilt offensive line got eaten up for extended stretches. Jay Cutler was under constant pressure and Matt Forte had no room to run. Even at this stage of his career, in just about every game, Cutler continues to make a handful of truly cringe-worthy throws. He had a pair in a crucial second half 'first and goal from the five' situation as they were trying to rally from 16 down. That being said, it’s certainly a good sign to see Cutler developing chemistry with a receiver not named Brandon Marshall; a huge afternoon for Alshon Jeffrey.

Arizona Cardinals - This offensive line continues to struggle to protect Carson Palmer. Palmer actually did a decent job of extending plays with his legs; certainly not a QB known for his scrambling ability. But he threw an INT in the end zone last week and had another one here – this offense isn't good enough to waste good scoring chances like that. This was the third week in a row that this offense simply didn't move the football with any consistency.

Darnell Dockett was blowing plays up at the line of scrimmage; one of the more underrated facets of this defense – it's pressure that make Patrick Peterson and the secondary as consistent effective as they are. Peterson is making impact plays every week. He won the game for Arizona at Tampa last week practically singlehandedly, and made a great INT and return just before halftime here, ending a Panthers scoring threat.

DE Calais Campbell was awesome. LB Daryl Washington was back in the lineup after serving a four game suspension and he did a remarkable job keeping Cam Newton in the pocket as the 'spy' defender, not to mention his two sacks and red zone interception. ‘Zona’s blitzes were very effective and the pass rush was there without it.

Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo was every bit as good as Peyton Manning in this ballgame, a really impressive...until his second interception of the season late in the fourth quarter, the only mistake he made all day, and at the worst possible time. Romo made several tremendous throws on the run when forced out of the pocket on scrambles, creating something out of nothing. Dallas had 13 first downs on their first two dozen offensive snaps, generating all kinds of big plays. With nine completions of longer than 20 yards, it was certainly an offensive explosion, good enough to beat just about any team in the NFL.

It's hard for me to rip any defense facing Denver, regardless of how badly they get gashed -- Peyton Manning is pretty hard to stop. That being said, when you allow more than ten yards per play for an entire half, like Dallas did in the first half here, you're clearly doing something wrong. And when you allow TD's on six consecutive red zone possessions – even against Denver – there's clearly a problem. Sean Lee is a beast at LB, but most of this stop unit is downright soft. There are holes galore to exploit in Monte Kiffin's Cover-2.

Green Bay Packers - Morgan Burnett back in the lineup at safety after missing the first three games of the season and he definitely had an impact, saving a potential big play TD with a beautiful pass breakup. The front seven is clogging up the middle – there’s simply not much room to run against them between the tackles.

But I can't understand why Dom Capers keeps blitzing on every passing down. This secondary is not good enough to handle single coverage, even against an injury riddled receiving corps. The blitzes seemed very predictable, the Lions handled it well, and the Packers struggled to get off the field on third downs as a result. The D had a stellar effort here, but I don’t trust them to do it again next week.

When Aaron Rodgers had time to throw, he had open receivers downfield, but his protection was mediocre at best, even though he took only a single sack. The offense wasn't clicking; lots of missed connections that were just slightly off – passes bouncing off fingertips type of thing. And the Packers were settling for field goals all afternoon, 0-fer on red zone opportunities. Total bettors must note their strong commitment to the run in a game that stayed three touchdowns Under.

New Orleans Saints - The Saints entered this game with the best defensive numbers in the NFL this year, holding foes to 3.4 yards per play. No other team is even close. The stats from this game will show a significant decline, but those stats are very misleading.

The Bears only first down on their first four drives came via a Cutler scramble. Once they had a three score lead, their strategy changed to more of a prevent style, which resulted in plenty of garbage time yards for Chicago, but they were not meaningful yards.

Let me give credit where credit is due – good defensive draft choices. This year’s #1, Kenny Vaccaro, is absolutely an impact rookie, making plays all over the field. Their previous #1 (from 2011), Cameron Jordan, has four sacks over the past four weeks; a difference maker on the edge of Rob Ryan’s 3-4 defense.

With a defense that's getting stop after stop, an offense this good is downright scary, in theory. But the Saints running game simply isn’t working, and this pass heavy offense struggled in the red zone on grass instead of the fast track inside the Superdome. That being said, there’s nothing about this undefeated team that appears fraudulent thusfar – they’re legit contenders to win it all.

Seattle Seahawks - This defense is truly special; nary a weakness on this stop unit. Their pass rush is strong; their blitzes extremely effective. These linebackers are all over the field. The secondary has nothing but lockdown corners and hard hitting safeties. They gave Andrew Luck fits today, shutting down the Colts passing game for extended stretches.

Yes, this D got gashed in the fourth quarter here. Yes, they did commit a handful of foolish penalties. And yes, they blew a couple of coverages, especially on the TY Hilton long TD that changed the momentum of the game entirely. This certainly wasn’t one of their better defensive showings, but there’s nothing to make me think that this elite stop unit has suddenly sprung a leak.

Coming into the game, my biggest concerns about the Seahawks were on the offensive side of the football; playing without both starting tackles and their starting center. Frankly, it didn't matter that much. Russell Wilson was pretty close to unstoppable with his arm and with his feet, and Marshawn Lynch defined the bruising back concept here. But this passing game struggled repeatedly on third down and in the red zone. That had at least something to do with their offensive line issues; a situation to watch moving forward.

[TheGame]

Monday Night Football Betting: Jets at Falcons
By Covers.com

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 44)

The Atlanta Falcons have made three straight postseason appearances and won a pair of division titles in that span, but they are venturing into must-win territory entering Monday night's home matchup with the New York Jets. The Falcons already trail NFC South front-runner New Orleans by three games and will be out to avoid a third straight defeat for the first time since 2007. The Jets will look to bounce back from a turnover-riddled loss at Tennessee last week.

New York, and rookie quarterback Geno Smith in particular, hardly looked ready for prime time against the Titans and managed only a single touchdown for the third time in four games. Smith, who won the quarterback job when incumbent Mark Sanchez suffered a serious shoulder injury in the preseason, committed four turnovers that Tennessee turned into 28 points. It's something that has to stop now in order for us to progress and to get better as an offense and as a team," Smith conceded.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-2): Smith needs to curb his string of mistakes after throwing eight interceptions and turning over the ball 11 times through four games, tying for the league lead. That task could be arduous if Smith is without starting wide receivers Santonio Holmes (hamstring) and Stephen Hill (concussion), who had each gone over 100 yards in a Week 3 victory over the Buffalo Bills. Holmes had only one reception last week before he was injured and voiced his displeasure about it this week, saying, "I can’t throw it to myself and catch it. Otherwise I would."

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-3): Atlanta continues to lament its inability to convert in the red zone, but a bigger issue has been a defense that has yet to hold an opponent under 23 points, has produced only seven sacks and is allowing 26 points and a robust 393.3 yards per game. Matt Ryan threw for a career-high 421 yards in last week's 30-23 loss to New England but the offense has been inconsistent without a healthy Roddy White (10 catches) and running back Steven Jackson, who will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury. Wideout Julio Jones leads the league with 481 receiving yards.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the Falcons last four home games.
* Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in October.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ryan is 34-6 at home, including wins in 12 of his last 14 games.

2. RB Mike Goodson is expected to make his debut with the Jets after serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy.

3. Jones is aiming for his fourth consecutive 100-yard game.