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Detroit at Green Bay O53.5
A very high total here, but we have 2 high powered offenses going up against teams who have been struggling on D.
Both of these teams are passing teams, throwing the ball on over 60% of their offensive plays. That means big chunks of yards, or the clock stopping due to incomplete passes, giving more time for offensive plays. The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in passing, averaging 7.9 yards per passing attempt. This is 16.8% above the league average. On the other side, Green Bay has struggled against the pass, ranking 30th, allowing 8.7 yards per passing attempt. These statistics show Green Bay defending the pass -29.5% below league average. With Bush being back healthy, the Lions should be able to move the ball up and down the field on this defense.
The Packers should be able to move the ball just as easily on the Lions defense. Detroit's defense isn't as bad against the pass, giving up 6.5 yards per passing attempt, 3.3% above league average, but they are going up against a Packer team that throws the ball 18.3% above the league average, at 8 yards per passing attempt. Also, Green Bay surprisingly ranks 2nd in the rushing game, averaging 5.3 yards per rushing attempt. Detroit has really struggled against the run this year, giving up 5.2 yards per rushing attempt...that's -26.8% below the league average.
This feels like a very square play, but the statistics show that these teams should be able to trade points with each other. I have this game projected at 59.8. I will take this game over the total of 53.5. If you like it, grab it now, this line will only climb upward closer to game time.
Best of luck with whatever you play this weekend!
- Warwick
A very high total here, but we have 2 high powered offenses going up against teams who have been struggling on D.
Both of these teams are passing teams, throwing the ball on over 60% of their offensive plays. That means big chunks of yards, or the clock stopping due to incomplete passes, giving more time for offensive plays. The Lions rank 6th in the NFL in passing, averaging 7.9 yards per passing attempt. This is 16.8% above the league average. On the other side, Green Bay has struggled against the pass, ranking 30th, allowing 8.7 yards per passing attempt. These statistics show Green Bay defending the pass -29.5% below league average. With Bush being back healthy, the Lions should be able to move the ball up and down the field on this defense.
The Packers should be able to move the ball just as easily on the Lions defense. Detroit's defense isn't as bad against the pass, giving up 6.5 yards per passing attempt, 3.3% above league average, but they are going up against a Packer team that throws the ball 18.3% above the league average, at 8 yards per passing attempt. Also, Green Bay surprisingly ranks 2nd in the rushing game, averaging 5.3 yards per rushing attempt. Detroit has really struggled against the run this year, giving up 5.2 yards per rushing attempt...that's -26.8% below the league average.
This feels like a very square play, but the statistics show that these teams should be able to trade points with each other. I have this game projected at 59.8. I will take this game over the total of 53.5. If you like it, grab it now, this line will only climb upward closer to game time.
Best of luck with whatever you play this weekend!
- Warwick
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