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**TheGame** · 09-06-2016, 10:07 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

NFL Week 1 Opening Line Report
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com

After months of anticipation, the NFL finally returns with real games as the regular season kicks off Thursday night. At some sportsbooks, the lines on Week 1 have been up for several weeks or more, with several significant shifts in those numbers.

Covers talks about four key season openers with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk manager for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos – Open: Broncos -3; Move: Broncos -1.5, Panthers -1, Panthers -3

Right from the get-go, the 2016 season gets a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos went in as 5-point underdogs in last season’s NFL title tilt and completely shut down Cam Newtown and Co. on the way to a 24-10 victory.

That marked Peyton Manning’s last game, and Brock Osweiler was expected to provide a steady transition following Manning’s retirement. But that narrative went out the window when Osweiler left for greener pastures with the Houston Texans, leading to a 180-degree swing in the line at CG’s books, including The Cosmopolitan, the M and the Venetian.

“Due to Denver’s Super Bowl win, the line opened at Broncos -3, with the assumption that Osweiler was going to start,” Simbal said. “Once the game opened (in mid-April), bets began coming in on the Panthers, and the line moved their way. Once Osweiler left, it shifted all the way to the Panthers.”

Denver went 15-4 SU and a more modest 10-8-1 ATS in 2015, while the Panthers won their first 14 games last year and finished 17-2 SU, 13-6 ATS.

Sportsbook.ag’s opening line was much tighter, at Broncos -1 as Childs gave Denver modest home-field respect while knowing quarterback could be an issue. But as with CG, that respect didn’t last for long.

“We quickly took on Panthers money, and we knew quite early that the public was going to be squarely behind the Panthers in this revenge game,” Childs said. “We quickly went to Panthers -1 and kept ticking up until just last week, when we eventually got to Panthers -3.5, our current number.”

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys – Open: Cowboys -4; Move: Giants -1.5, Giants -1

This NFC East rivalry gets renewed right away with a 4:25 p.m. Eastern start on Sunday. Unfortunately, the game lost a lot of its luster and the Cowboys lost their status as home favorites when quarterback Tony Romo went down with a back injury in Week 3 of the preseason.

Romo is expected to miss at least the first six weeks of the regular season for Dallas, which went 4-12 SU and 4-11-1 ATS last year without Romo almost the entire way. He broke his collarbone in Week 2, came back at Thanksgiving and reinjured it, then missed the rest of the season.

The Giants didn’t fare much better in 2015, going 6-10 SU, 8-7-1 ATS.

“Before the Romo injury, the Cowboys were a solid 4-point favorite. But once we learned he was out, we immediately closed the game and assessed the situation,” Childs said. “While everyone is in love with Romo’s backup, Dak Prescott, he’s still a rookie and hasn’t taken a regular-season NFL snap, so we have major reservations about his ability until proven otherwise.

“With a major downgrade at quarterback, we dropped the line a full 5 points, making the Giants a small 1.5-point favorite. We’ve written good action at that price, but we booked some sharp action on the Cowboys at +1.5 and moved it down a half-point to Giants -1.”

CG experienced similar movement, though the game is now rated a toss-up.

“In Week 1 last year, the same game opened Cowboys -7,” Simbal said of a contest Dallas won 27-26 at home. “After some of the Giants’ offseason moves, and the move toward the Giants in futures, the opener here was Cowboys -4.5. After the Romo injury, it went to a pick.”

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Cardinals -1; Move: Cardinals -4, Cardinals -6

It’s another game more about who’s not playing than who is, with Tom Brady not under center for the Patriots while he serves a four-game suspension over DeflateGate. Once that decision came down in late April, the line took off in favor of the host Cardinals.

“These are both very even and popular teams, so Arizona (initially) got the slight nod of being a 1-point favorite at home,” Simbal said. “Once the Brady suspension broke, it went all the way up to 6.”
New England was 13-5 SU, 8-8-2 ATS last year, bowing out in the AFC Championship Game, a 20-18 loss to Denver as a 3-point road favorite. Arizona (14-4 SU, 9-9 ATS in 2015) reached the NFC Championship Game but got torched at Carolina 49-15 as a 3-point underdog.

Childs said Sportsbook – which opened the Pats at -1 – took the game down even before the Brady news, based on chatter that the courts were going to uphold the suspension. After the decision came down, the game went back up with Arizona at -5.

“We saw real nice, two-way action,” Childs said. “More times than not, going from Brady to Jimmy Garoppolo would require a much bigger line move, in my opinion. But when considering Bill Belichick has had all summer to game-plan, we didn’t want to give more than 6 points to arguably the best coach in the NFL.

“That said, sharp money as well as some public money has pushed this line to 6. I believe that money represents Garoppolo’s struggles in the preseason. He flat-out didn’t look all that good.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins – Open: Steelers -3; Move: none

Both these teams made the playoffs last year, and Pittsburgh is among the shorter favorites this season to win the Super Bowl. Unlike the aforementioned three season openers, though, the line in this contest has been steady.

“The Steelers are about a touchdown better on a neutral field, so Washington got 3-4 points for being at home,” Simbal said. “The opener here of -3 was fine since there has been little movement.”

The Steelers went 11-7 SU, 9-6-3 ATS last season, bowing out in the divisional playoffs with a 23-16 loss as 7-point ‘dogs at Denver. The Redskins won a flagging NFC East with a 9-7 SU and ATS mark, then lost to Green Bay 35-18 as 2-point home chalk in the wild-card round.

Sportsbook bounced back and forth between its opener of 3 and 3.5 a couple times, with the three-game suspension of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell weighing into a shift back to 3. But Pittsburgh continues to get the bulk of the action.

“The Bell suspension really hasn’t stopped support for the Steelers,” Childs said. “With more and more money coming in on the road favorite, we went back to 3.5 about a month ago and haven’t moved off that number.

**TheGame** · 09-06-2016, 10:07 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

NFL Line Watch Week 1
By Art Aronson
Covers.com

Game to bet now

Oakland at New Orleans (-1)

One-point lines aren’t all that common, but this one hasn’t budged since early-bird oddsmakers weighed in when the schedule was first announced last spring, so any late movement is unlikely. This looks like the Raiders’ last in the Bay Area, and they would love to make the playoffs and give their move to Las Vegas a huge tailwind. They did get some bad news when they learned that DE Mario Edwards will be lost for at least six weeks after being injured in last week’s exhibition game. Ouch. The Saints were not all that impressive in the pre-season (losing all four), but that doesn’t mean much. NO hopes to take advantage of a soft start to the season with the first four against 2016 non-playoff teams (Raiders, Falcons, Giants, Chargers). Starting 1-3 or 0-4 would be devastating.

Game to wait on

Carolina at Denver (+3)

Books are loath to move off field goal lines, but the public is betting hard on the Panthers (72 percent at last check) and Broncos bettors should check back often to see if a 3.5 window opens up, even for a short amount of time. Denver will be trying to defend its Super Bowl title without a top-flight quarterback, and that’s always a tricky thing to accomplish. But that defense should keep the Broncos in most games. No one seriously thinks the Panthers can repeat last year’s 15-1 record, but they should be able to call the shots in the NFC South and return to the playoffs.

Total to watch

New England at Arizona (47.5)

This one opened at 51, but fell when Tom Brady’s suspension appeal was rejected. New England will try to survive until Week 5 (when Brady is back) with a possible top-3 defense and a no-frills offense built around tight ends Rob Gronkowski and (newcomer) Martellus Bennett. The usual suspects on offense are back – uncoverable Julian Edelman and earth-mover running back LeGarrette Blount. The Pats will keep things simple early on until they have a feel for QB placeholder Jimmy Garoppolo. The Cardinals no doubt caught a break facing a sans-Bready New England, and will be doing everything they can to intimidate Garoppolo with a solid defense of their own. Could be hard for both teams to get into the end zone in this one.

**TheGame** · 09-06-2016, 10:08 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

NFL Week 1 Picks and Leans ATS
Sportspic.com

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys will start a rookie in this game after starting QB Tony Romo suffered a back injury in preseason. We'd normally stay away from a team with a QB making his first start, but this kid appears to be the real deal. In the preseason Dak Prescott completed 78.0 percent of his passes (39 of 50) throwing for 454 yards with five touchdown passes and rushed for two more with ZERO INTs. The Giants signed two corners in free agency and may be an improved unit and they'll need to be against the Cowboys who racked up 896 offensive yards against them last season. These two teams combined for 53 and 47 points extended the OVER streak in this series to 7 games. Take the OVER 46

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers had the most offensive line injuries in the NFL last year using a total of 24 different combinations over the campaign. That was the main reason for them finishing dead last in the league in rushing yards per attempt. They go into this season with RG D.J. Fluker hobbled (check status), but the rest of the starters are good to go and we expect the running game to improve immensely this season. The passing game should excel this season with the extra protection if this unit can stay healthy and the return of WR Kennan Allen and the addition of the speedy WR Travis Benjamin. Remember this offense lead the league in yardage with Allen in the lineup amassing 423.3 yards per game. The Chiefs won 10 straight games in the regular season to grab a playoff spot and most of the key players returned this season. They do have some question marks on the defense with the loss of CB Sean Smith to free agency and injuries to starting LBs Justin Houston and Josh Mauga. We believe that this game could go down to the wire with Kansas City prevailing, but the visitor getting the money. Take the San Diego Chargers +7

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins

A lot of experts think that this may be the Steelers year and it may be, but in our opinion this team is ripe for the picking early in the season. With RB Le’Veon Bell suspended for three games and Martavis Bryant for the season and the retirement of TE Heath Miller. RB DeAngelo Williams did a great job filling in for Bell last season when he was hurt last season, rushing for 907 yards, but he’s 33 now and he may have lost a step. The loss of Bryant for the year and his big play ability is huge with 14 touchdowns in 21 games! He’d come in handy Heath Miller against a Redskins secondary that is projected to be one of the best in the NFL with the signing of CB Josh Norman. Washington was one of the hottest teams down the stretch last season with a field goal loss their only defeat in the last six games. The offense was the strength last season for the Skins averaging 23.8 points per game including 34 or more in their last three games. I expect them to light up a Steelers’ defense that allowed 271.9 passing yards per game last season. The Redskins do have some injury concerns with RB Matt Jones and rookie WR Josh Doctson both questionable, but Monday reports suggest that both will play on Monday night. Two playoff teams from last season with the home team the dog suggests an overlay on the visitor. Take the Washington Redskins +3

**TheGame** · 09-06-2016, 10:08 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

NFL Week 1

Carolina @ Denver - Super Bowl winners are 7-3-3 vs spread in Week 1 the following year; Super Bowl losers are 2-11 vs spread in season openers the following year. Broncos do look lot different, with Siemian at QB; they’re 15-1 SU in last 16 home openers, 18-8-1 vs spread in last 27, 5-3 vs spread in last eight season openers. Since ’12, Carolina is 5-9 vs spread as a road favorite; they lost 34-0/20-17 in only visits here, with last one in ’04- they’ve lost four of five overall vs Broncos. Panthers won last two road openers; they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 road openers, with three of last four staying under total. Denver is 5-7 vs spread as home underdog since 2010. This is the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 1970.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - Bucs’ new DC is Mike Smith, the former Falcons’ head coach. Last three years, Falcons are 5-17 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 4-11 in last 15 games as home favorite. Last two years, Bucs are 2-9 in games with spread of 3 or less points- they swept Falcons 23-20/23-19 LY; they’ve split last four visits to Georgia Dome. Tampa Bay is 3-7 in last 10 road openers, but 4-1 vs spread as a dpg in road openers. Under is 16-7 in their last 23 road openers. Atlanta won, covered its last eight home openers; they’re 14-3 vs spread in last 17 home openers. Falcons covered last eight times they opened season at home; three of its last four home openers went under the total.

Minnesota @ Tennessee - Hill gets start at QB for Minnesota, but Bradford will be starter soon. Hill was 3-5 for ’14 Rams, his only starts since ’10. Last four years, Minnesota is 20-7 vs spread in games that have a spread of 3 or less points; Vikings open on road for 8th time in last nine years; they open a new domed stadium next week. Last three years, Tennessee is 2-8-2 vs spread in games that have spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, they’re 6-14-2 as home dogs. Minnesota won five of last six series games, with last four wins over Tennessee by 10+ points; they split two visits to Nashville, with last one in ’08. Vikings are 3-5 in last eight season openers, 4-11 in last 15 road openers; under is 9-3 in their last 12 road openers. Titans are 7-3 last 10 times they opened season at home; four of their last five season openers stayed under total.

Cleveland @ Philadelphia - Rookie Wentz gets nod at QB for Eagles, despite hardly playing in preseason (ribs). Browns started season 1-0 once in last 17 years; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11 openers, 4-7-2 in last 13 road openers. Cleveland is on their sixth coach in nine years; they’re 0-4 vs Eagles, losing its last visit to Philly 30-10 in ’08. Eagles are on third coach in four years; since ’10, they’re 11-19 vs spread in non-divisional home games. With rookie Wentz red-shirting this year, Bradford gets nod at QB ; Iggles are 2-8 vs spread in last 10 home openers; 0-7 when favored by less than eight points. Browns are 13-15-2 as road dogs last four years. Under is 6-2-1 in Eagles’ last nine home openers, 8-5 in Cleveland’s last 13 season openers.

Cincinnati @ NJ Jets - Fitzpatrick didn’t sign until an hour before training camp started, but had full camp; Jets are 7-2 vs spread as home underdogs last three years. Bengals lost last nine games vs Jets in NY/NJ area, with last series win here in 1981. Jets are 9-2 in last 11 series games, but lost 49-9 at Cincinnati in 2013 in last series game. Gang Green won last five home openers (three by 5 or less points); they’re 7-1 in last eight season openers. Bengals split last six season openers, which were all on the road. Since 2011, Cincinnati is 11-6-1 as road favorite- they are 17-5-3 vs spread in last 25 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 6-1 in Cincy’s last seven road openers, 3-5 in Jets’ last eight openers at home.

Oakland @ New Orleans - Former Oakland coach Allen is Saints’ new DC. Since ’08, Saints is 24-10-3 as non-divisional home favorite. Last four years, Raiders are 4-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as non-divisional road dogs. Saints won last three series games by average of 34-15– Raiders are 2-3-1 vs Saints on Bourbon Street. Oakland lost 12 of last 13 openers; since ’07, they’re 6-1-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Over last eight years, Saints are 14-8-2 as favorite of 3 or less points; they lost four of last five openers; they’re 13-5 in last 18 home openers (5-2-1 vs spread when favored in HO’s). Over is 11-5-1 in last 17 Oakland road openers, 3-9 in last 12 Superdome openers.

Chargers @ Chiefs - San Diego didn’t score TD vs Chiefs LY, losing 33-3/10-3; they lost last two visits to Arrowhead, 19-7/10-3, as KC won last four series games. Chargers are 18-8-1 as a road underdog last four years, 7-3 in last 10 AFC West road games. Chiefs are 3-7 in last 10 season openers, 5-11 in last 16 home openers; they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a fave in home openers. San Diego covered its last four openers; they’re 8-5-1 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Since ’08, Kansas City is 13-23 as a home favorite (10-12 under Reid). Under is 19-4-2 in Chiefs’ last 25 home openers, 3-1 in Bolts’ last four road openers. Chiefs covered only eight of last 23 AFC West home games.

Buffalo @ Baltimore - Last four years, Ravens are 5-10-2 vs spread as favorite of 3 or less points. Home team won last five series games; Bills lost last three visits to Baltimore, by 14-12-3 points. Buffalo covered nine of last 11 openers; they’re 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers, winning three of last five SU. Ravens lost last two home openers after 9-0 streak prior to that- they’re 13-6 vs spread as a favorite in home openers. Rex Ryan became a HC because of success Raven defense had while he was there. Buffalo is 14-10-1 in last 25 games with spread of 3 or less points- they’re 6-16-2 vs spread in last 24 non-divisional road tilts. Over is 4-1 in Bills’ last five road openers, 5-2 in Baltimore’s last seven home openers.

Chicago @ Houston - Osweiler is 5-2 as an NFL starter; he makes his Houston debut here. Texans are 7-3 as home favorites in two years under O’Brien. Fox is 10-6-1 as a road dog last five years; Bears were 5-2-1 as road underdog LY. Chicago is opening on road for first time since ’09; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine openers, 10-8 in last 18 road openers. Houston won six of its last seven openers, five of last six home openers- they’re 4-4 as favorites in HOs. Texans won all three series games, by 19-7-7 points; Bears lost 31-24 in only visit here, in 2008. Under is 10-2 in Chicago’s last 12 road openers, 7-4 in Houston’s last 11 home openers. Bears covered seven of last ten non-conference road games.

Green Bay @ Jacksonville - Packers lost three of last four season openers, three of last four road openers (1-4 vs spread in last five); their last five openers went over, as did eight of last ten road openers. Jaguars are 2-7 in last nine home openers, losing last four by an average of 30-9. Jags are 4-6 as an underdog in HOs. Green Bay is 7-4 as road favorite last two years, since 2011, Pack is 9-16 vs spread in non-conference road games. Jags are 5-12-1 as a home underdog under Bradley; they’re 7-18 in last 25 non-divisional home games. Under is 8-3-1 in Jaguars’ last 12 home openers. Packers are 3-2 in series; three of last four meetings were decided by 7 or less points. Pack won two of three visits here, with last trip here in ’08.

Miami @ Seattle - Biggest spread of Week 1. Since 2008, Miami is 25-14-1 vs spread in its non-divisional road games- they’re 4-7 as road underdogs last two years, Seahawks won, covered 12 of last 13 home openers- they’re 10-1 as faves in HOs. Dolphins are 3-9 in last 12 road openers, 1-6-1 vs spread as an underdog. Miami is 3-0 in last three season openers; they were underdog in two of three. Long road trip to start season; Fish won five of last six series meetings, with four of six decided by 4 or less points. Dolphins won three of last four visits here, with last one in ’04. Under is 17-5 in Miami’s last 22 road openers, including last seven in row; under is 12-2-1 in Seattle’s last 15 HOs. Last six years, Seattle is 22-11 vs the spread as a home favorite.

NJ Giants @ Dallas - Rookie QB Prescott played well in preseason; how will he do when things speed up in regular season? Cowboys won five of last six series games, winning last three here by 5-1-10 points; average total in last seven series games, 53.7. Dallas covered one of last eight home openers; since ’93, they’re 7-13 as favorite in HOs. Six of its last eight home openers were decided by 4 or less points. Giants started 0-1 last five years; they lost five of last six road openers- since ’96, they’re 8-10 as an underdog in road openers. Over is 14-2 in Giants’ last 16 road openers, 6-3 in Cowboys’ last nine home openers. Since ’07, Giants are 9-5 as a non-divisional road dog; over is 11-5 in their road gmes last two years. Big Blue fired their Hall of Fame head coach, kept two coordinators; how does that make them better?

Detroit @ Indianapolis - Lion coach Caldwell led Colts to AFC title in 2009, losing Super Bowl to Saints; Detroit is 4-7 as road dog last two years. Indy drafted four offensive linemen last spring; that is where their problems lied LY, keeping QB Luck upright. Indy is 21-26-1 as home favorite the last eight years, 12-17 in non-division games. Lions are 3-12 SU in last 15 road openers (4-8 vs spread as a dog); they allowed 27.3 ppg in last four AOs. Indy is 1-5 as a favotite in home openers, going 2-3 SU in last five. Colts won last four series games, three by 10+ points; Lions lost 30-18/31-21 in two visits here, last of which was in 2008. Over is 7-3-1 in Detroit’s last 11 road openers, 1-4 in Colts’ last five openers.

New England @ Arizona - Garoppolo starting at QB for Patriots puts this into uncharted territory; Patriots are 11-5-1 in last 17 tries as a road underdog, 8-4-1 outside their division. Arizona is 10-7-1 as home favorite under Arians; they’re 10-4-1 in last 15 non-divisional home games. Pats won 11 of last 12 season openers, winning four of last five road openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points. Arizona won last six home openers, covering four of last five- they won five of last six series openers, but lost five of last six games vs Patriots, winning 20-18 in last meeting in Foxboro, in ’12. NE won last three visits here, by 2-24-11 points. Under is 3-1 in Patriots’ last four AO’s, Cardinals’ last four HOs.

Pittsburgh @ Washington - Steelers lost last five road openers (0-4-1 vs spread), all by 7+ points; they lost four of last five season openers (0-4-1 vs spread), but won last five games vs Washington, last four all by 9+ points. This is only third visit here for Steelers since ’68; they split last two. Pitt is 11-20-1 as road favorite last eight years, 6-14 in non-divisional games. Under is 10-5 in their road games last two years. Redskins are 5-4 as home dog under Gruden; since ’08, they’re 12-24-2 vs spread in non-divisional home games. Skins lost last three season openers, three of last four home openers. Under is 7-2 in Steelers’ last nine road openers, 1-4 in Washington’s last five home openers.

Los Angeles @ San Francisco - Rams are favored despite being 1-13 in last 14 road openers, with only win 19-17 (-4) at Tampa Bay couple years ago. LA is 1-3 as road fave in Fisher era. Keenum is 5-2 in last seven starts. Since 2000, Rams are 3-13 vs spread in Week 1. 49ers are 7-3-1 as home underdog since ’09, 1-3 in last four home openers, losing in Week 1 last three years. Niners are 4-2-1 in last seven series games; Rams are 1-6-1 in last eight visits here, with three of last four visits decided by 3 or less points; it is much shorter road trip now than it was in those eight trips. LA outrushed 49ers 330-146 in two meetings LY; wraps will get taken off Gurley here after he hardly played in preseason. Under is 7-3 in Rams’ last 10 road openers, 9-5-1 in 49ers’ last 15 HOs, 18-6 in 49ers home games the last three years.

**TheGame** · 09-07-2016, 07:54 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

CAROLINA (17 - 2) at DENVER (15 - 4) - 9/8/2016, 8:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CAROLINA vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Carolina's last 17 games
Carolina is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games
Denver is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina

Carolina at Denver
Carolina: 12-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
Denver: 1-4 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

**TheGame** · 09-07-2016, 07:55 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

Thursday's Total Preview
By Sportsbook.ag

Week 1 TNF Line: Carolina (-3.5) vs. Denver (+3.5); Total 41.5

After months of anticipation, the 2016 NFL regular season is upon us and bettors everywhere are excited to get things going for real. Fans couldn't really ask for a better opening night matchup as it's a rematch of Super Bowl 50 and the Carolina Panthers would love to exact some measure of revenge by getting by the Broncos this time.

Much has been made about how successful betting on the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 1 has been to bettors the past few decades, but this is only the second time in this century that we've actually had a Super Bowl rematch from the year before. The only other time it happened was in 2014, when Seattle was able to beat Denver again (26-20) in OT, months after they stomped the Broncos 43-8.

Yet, although that's the only SB rematch we've seen this century, defending champions (Denver) are on a 14-2 SU and 10-4-2 ATS mark in Week 1 games during that same span. It's an angle you'll likely hear a lot about leading up to Thursday's game, but I'm actually looking to attack the total.

The Broncos are a different looking team on offense this year with Trevor Siemian getting the nod as the starting QB, and he's still a big unknown to many NFL bettors. He was a solid QB during his collegiate days at Northwestern, and Denver isn't going to be asking him to do a whole lot early on as he gets his feet wet as a starter in the NFL.

It's his presence, and the presence of Denver's dominating defense from a year ago that has already made bettors attack the “under” for this contest, pushing the number down to it's current state after opening at 43.5. That's a significant move, but I'm not so sure it's the right one.

Yes, the Broncos defense should be one of the better units in the league again this year, but it will still take some time to get to that point, and the Panthers have had all off-season to gameplan how to attack this unit that dismantled them in Super Bowl 50.

Looking over the history of Super Bowl rematches from a totals perspective, we've seen significant differences in points scored in the rematch to that of the title game and that could very well hold true here. In fact, the last four times it's happened, dating back to 1979, the rematch totals result was a perfect 4-0 when flipped against the result of the previous Super Bowl. That means that if the Super Bowl cashed an 'over' ticket for bettors, the rematch went 'under' and vice versa. It's an interesting trend that not many are talking about amidst all the SB rematch stats and should definitely be considered.

Getting back to the game, Carolina's offense was embarrassed by how they only managed 10 points in the Super Bowl as four turnovers really put the exclamation point on a poor showing. I don't believe those results will repeat themselves here and those Panthers drives (they got 21 first downs against this top tier defense) will ultimately end up in more scores.

Siemian might not be asked to do much, but Carolina is going to load up the box and pressure him relentlessly. Therefore, there will be some open shots deep for the new Broncos QB if he has time to see them and connect, meaning don't just think the Broncos will be ultra-conservative with their new signal caller.

This total number has come down to the point where there is actually quite a bit of value in going to the high side now and the “over 41.5” has clearly become the play.

Take “Over" 41.5 points

**Satch** · 09-07-2016, 10:32 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

Preview: Carolina at Denver

When: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, September 8, 2016
Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver, Colorado

The 2016 season kicks off in earnest on Thursday with a rematch of Super Bowl 50, as the visiting Carolina Panthers look to exact revenge against the defending champion Denver Broncos. With future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning embracing retirement, second-year player Trevor Siemian won an impromptu quarterback competition with first-round pick Paxton Lynch and veteran Mark Sanchez to claim the starter's role for Denver in the season opener.

"Trevor is the guy," general manager John Elway said of Siemian, whose lone NFL action last season resulted in a kneel-down versus Pittsburgh. "We have a lot of confidence in Trevor and believe that he can do the job. It's Trevor's job, but he's not going to be looking over his shoulder." Super Bowl MVP Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware headline a top-ranked defense that silenced Cam Newton (45 total TDs in 2015) both on and off the field in February, but the reigning league MVP was quick to speak out against the notion of Thursday's tilt serving as a Super Bowl rematch. "A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's just our next opponent," said Newton, who was stripped of the ball on two occasions and sacked a Super Bowl high-tying seven times in a 24-10 decision in February.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Panthers -3. O/U: 41.5

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2015: 15-1, first place in NFC South): Kelvin Benjamin was a spectator throughout the 2015 season after tearing his ACL, but the 6-foot-5 wide receiver will be on the field for the opener - albeit for approximately 35 snaps, according to the Charlotte Observer. "I think that's the best guess," coach Ron Rivera told the newspaper of Benjamin, who has been working on his conditioning. "If it is more, great. I'd be really excited about it. He's done some really good things and you see him getting back into stride and that's probably the best thing." Tight end Greg Olsen, veteran Ted Ginn (team-high 10 touchdowns) and promising second-year wideout Devin Funchess return in the passing game, while rugged Jonathan Stewart (club-best 989 rushing) will look to aid in the ground attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2015: 12-4, first place in AFC West): Demaryius Thomas led the Broncos in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1.304) and tied Emmanuel Sanders in receiving touchdowns (six) last season, but was limited to just one catch for eight yards in the Super Bowl. Thomas will look for a better individual performance versus Carolina as he will likely be shadowed by rookie cornerbacks as opposed to Pro Bowler Josh Norman, who signed a five-year, $75 million deal with Washington in the offseason. Denver would love to get more out of its running game this season as C.J. Anderson (720 yards) struggled throughout the early stages before capping his tumultuous campaign with 90 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 50.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Denver has emerged victorious in 15 of its last 16 home openers for a .938 winning percentage, tops in the NFL during that time.

2. Carolina LB Luke Kuechly had a club-best 10 tackles in Super Bowl 50 and had a team-leading 118 during the regular season.

3. Thursday's contest will mark the first time in NFL history that the season will open with teams that squared off in the Super Bowl.

PREDICTION: Panthers 17, Broncos 13

**Satch** · 09-07-2016, 10:33 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

Trends - Carolina at Denver
ATS Trends

Carolina
Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. Panthers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1. Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Denver
Broncos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. Broncos are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in September.

OU Trends

Carolina
Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in Week 1. Over is 3-1-1 in Panthers last 5 games in September. Over is 12-5-1 in Panthers last 18 games overall. Over is 12-5 in Panthers last 17 road games.

Denver
Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 home games. Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games in Week 1. Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games in September. Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games on grass.

Head to Head

Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

**TheGame** · 09-08-2016, 08:27 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

Football lines that make you go hmmm: Short road faves are undervalued
By PETER KORNER

As an oddsmaker, I have to be aware of the home-field advantage, no matter what the sport. The reason? Simple. Teams win more at home than they do on the road. But there are certain situations where I think the bettor has a distinct advantage playing that angle against the percentages: road favorites with a short price.

In the NFL, there seems to be a standard of three points (give or take the situation) for the home field. A six-point differential if we switch the home team. There are four situations in Week 1 of the NFL season where I believe, just because of the “automatic” home-field advantage, the line poses a weak chance of getting two-way action for Bookmakers. And that’s where bettors may be aggressive with their betting.

We’re going to look at the opening game of the season, Thursday’s Carolina at Denver, Sunday’s Cincinnati at the NY Jets and both Monday games, Pittsburgh at Washington and Los Angeles at San Francisco.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 42)

Carolina is a solid 3-point favorite over the Denver Broncos, who lost their top two quarterbacks to retirement and free agency, and that’s how the early money found its way to the Carolina side. So, as an oddsmaker, on a neutral site, Carolina would be a 6-point favorite and as a home team and they’d giving the Broncos nine points.

My feelings for years, has been if a team is a 9-point favorite at home, that difference in talent to be at that level should carry over to wherever they’re playing. Suddenly making a large favorite, a near pick’em game never made sense. My first thoughts would be that Carolina should be at the minimum, a 6-point favorite here.

The value right now is Carolina at the -3 level. This game already smells of a closing line of -4 or higher as everyone has been hit on the revenge-minded Panthers in the past few days and I don’t see tremendous buy back for Bookmakers - even when the money on game day forces this off the key number of three.

Bookmakers will be taking three or four times their limits before moving the game off -3 and by that time, they’ll be swamped with one-sided action and then suddenly, this becomes a huge game to kick of Week 1.

**TheGame** · 09-08-2016, 08:27 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

Thin Mile High air gives Broncos an early-season edge in home openers
By JASON LOGAN

Sports Authority Field at Mile High isn’t just a catchy name. The home of the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos actually sits 5,280 feet above sea level – exactly one mile into the sky. Gotta respect the attention to detail.

You should also respect the Broncos’ built-in home-field advantage at Sports Authority Field, especially early into the NFL season. The thin air at that altitude has long plagued visiting teams, with that energy-draining effect amplified in Denver’s opening home games of the schedule.

Heading into Thursday’s Super Bowl rematch between the host Broncos and the Carolina Panthers, Denver boasts an incredible 27-4 SU mark and has gone 19-12 ATS in those contests, covering the spread more than 61 percent of the time. Since 2000, the Broncos have lost their home opener just once (2011 Week 1) and have failed to cover the spread only four times, with a 10-4-2 ATS record (71.4%).

“There's no question that playing in that Mile High altitude effects visiting teams and I believe it's even more impactful early in the season,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management, tells us. “There isn't a team out there in all the NFL that is in game shape - flat out nobody's played a game. A few have played a half of football in Week 3 of the preseason, but even then that's just preseason and lacks the intensity of a regular season game.”

The Broncos have won with ease in their home openers, outscoring opponents 28.8 ppg to 18.9 ppg versus an average spread of -5 since 1985. Last season, Denver defeated the Baltimore Ravens 19-13 as 4.5-point home chalk in Week 1 of the schedule. The Broncos defense shutout the Ravens in the fourth quarter to secure the win.

“I'm not saying these athletes and teams are not in shape, but there's no substituting for being in 'game shape' and that takes a few weeks,” Childs says. “I fully believe the Broncos’ early-season success at home is directly correlated to teams not being as in shape as they are later on in the season.”

Sportsbooks are currently dealing the Broncos as 3-point home underdogs, after the home side opened as a slight favorite and was bet down due to issues at quarterback. Peyton Manning retired following his Super Bowl 50 victory and free agent QB Brock Osweiler signed with the Houston Texans in the offseason. That has forced Denver to give the starting nod to inexperienced Trevor Siemian, who has never thrown a pass in a regular season game.

Denver has been a betting underdog in its home opener just once before in the past 31 years, winning 23-16 as a 3-point pup hosting the St. Louis Rams in Week 1 of the 2002 campaign.

The Broncos will be leaning hard on their defense to once again be the difference maker in 2016, but with that said, Denver has trended toward the Over in home openers. The team has posted a 20-11 Over/Under mark since 1985 (64.5% Over) with an average total of 47.8 points scored against an average closing total of 43.4.

The betting total for Thursday’s season kickoff opened at 43 points and is down to 41.5 as of Tuesday. The Broncos and Panthers played Under the 43-point total in Super Bowl 50, with Denver winning 24-10.

**TheGame** · 09-08-2016, 08:27 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

Trends favor Broncos in Week 1

The 2016 NFL regular season kicks off Thursday as Denver meets Carolina from Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

The Broncos defeated the Panthers 24-10 in Super Bowl 50 last February as 4 ½-point underdogs and the oddsmakers have Carolina listed as a road favorite in a rematch that is very rare.

The primetime opener marks just the seventh time in NFL history that the previous season’s Super Bowl opponents square off in a rematch in the very next season.

2014 – Seattle 26 vs. Denver 20 (OT)
Super Bowl 48 – Seattle 43 Denver 8

1997 – Green Bay 28 at New England 10
Super Bowl 31 – Green Bay 35 New England 21

1993 – Buffalo 13 Dallas 10
Super Bowl 27 – Dallas 52 Buffalo 17

1979 – Pittsburgh 14 vs. Dallas 3
Super Bowl 13 – Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31

1977 – Oakland 35 vs. Minnesota 13
Super Bowl 11 – Oakland 34 Minnesota 14

1970 – Minnesota 27 vs. Kansas City 10
Super Bowl 4 – Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7

Looking above you can see that the Super Bowl winner has gone 4-2 (67%) in the rematch game.

While the sample on this trend isn’t that large, there are two other Super Bowl handicapping angles that have become solid staples for Week 1.

Betting on the defending Super Bowl champions in their Week 1 opener the following season is a well-known angle and many gamblers have banked on it.

After watching the Super Bowl champions drop back-to-back openers in 2012 and 2013, the defending champions have bounced back with victories in each of the last two seasons.

Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2015)

Year SB Winner Opponent Score (SU-ATS Result)

2015 New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh 28-21 (Win-Push)
2014 Seattle (-4.5) vs. Green Bay 36-16 (Win-Win)
2013 Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver 27-49 (Loss-Loss)
2012 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) vs. Dallas 17-24 (Loss-Loss)
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) vs. New Orleans 42-34 (Win-Win)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Minnesota 14-9 (Win-Win)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Tennessee 13-10 (Win-Loss)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington 16-7 (Win-Win)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans 41-10 (Win-Win)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Miami 28-17 (Win-Win)
2005 New England (-7.5) vs. Oakland 30-20 (Win-Win)
2004 New England (-3) vs. Indianapolis 27-24 (Win-Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Philadelphia 17-0 (Win-Win)
2002 New England (PK) vs. Pittsburgh 30-14 (Win-Win)
2001 Baltimore (-10) vs. Chicago 17-6 (Win-Win)
2000 St. Louis (-7) vs. Denver 41-36 ((Win-Loss)

Including New England's win last season, the defending champions are now 14-2 straight up and 10-4-2 against the spread in Week 1 openers since 2000.

During this span, the Super Bowl winner has only been listed as an underdog twice and they’ve gone 1-1 in those matchups.

As mentioned above, Denver will be in that role on Thursday when Carolina visits for the rematch.

While the Panthers have the clear-cut advantage at quarterback with Cam Newton over the Broncos first-time starter Trevor Siemian, backing Super Bowl losers in Week 1 hasn’t been a great investment.

Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2015)

Year SB Loser Opponent Score (SU-ATS Result)

2015 Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis 34-31 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2014 Denver (-8) vs. Indianapolis 31-24 (Win-Loss-Over)
2013 San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Green Bay 34-28 (Win-Win-Over)
2012 New England (-5) at Tennessee 34-13 (Win-Win-Under)
2011 Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore 7-35 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2010 Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston 24-34 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2009 Arizona (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 6-20 (Loss-Loss)
2008 New England (-16) vs. Kansas City 17-10 (Win-Loss)
2007 Chicago (+6) at San Diego 3-14 (Loss-Loss)
2006 Seattle (-6) at Detroit 9-6 (Win-Loss)
2005 Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 10-14 (Loss-Loss)
2004 Carolina (-3) vs. Green Bay 14-24 (Loss-Loss)
2003 Oakland (+3) at Tennessee 20-25 (Loss-Loss)
2002 St. Louis (-3) at Denver 16-23 (Loss-Loss)
2001 N.Y. Giants (+3) vs. San Francisco 13-16 (Loss-Loss)
2000 Tennessee (PK) at Buffalo 13-16 (Loss-Loss)
1999 Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota 14-17 (Loss-Win)

Since 2000, the runner-up has gone 5-11 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.

Despite the poor overall numbers (20%) versus the number during this span, the ‘losers’ have won three of the last four seasons and they were expected to do so as favorites.

We also highlighted in the above table that the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six Week 1 openers for the Super Bowl loser.

The total on the Panthers and Broncos opened 43 ½ but has since dropped to 42 at most sportsbooks as of Monday.

**TheGame** · 09-08-2016, 08:28 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

NFL Opening Kickoff betting preview and odds: Panthers at Broncos

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 41.5)

The 2016 season kicks off in earnest on Thursday with a rematch of Super Bowl 50, as the visiting Carolina Panthers look to exact revenge against the defending champion Denver Broncos. With future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning embracing retirement, second-year player Trevor Siemian won an impromptu quarterback competition with first-round pick Paxton Lynch and veteran Mark Sanchez to claim the starter's role for Denver in the season opener.

"Trevor is the guy," general manager John Elway said of Siemian, whose lone NFL action last season resulted in a kneel-down versus Pittsburgh. "We have a lot of confidence in Trevor and believe that he can do the job. It's Trevor's job, but he's not going to be looking over his shoulder." Super Bowl MVP Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware headline a top-ranked defense that silenced Cam Newton (45 total TDs in 2015) both on and off the field in February, but the reigning league MVP was quick to speak out against the notion of Thursday's tilt serving as a Super Bowl rematch. "A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's just our next opponent," said Newton, who was stripped of the ball on two occasions and sacked a Super Bowl high-tying seven times in a 24-10 decision in February.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line has seen some major moves since it originally hit the board back in April. Books opened the Broncos as slight 1.5-point home faves, but then projected starter Brock Osweiler signed with Houston in free agency, causing the to reopen the line with the Panthers as 2-point road faves. Since then the Broncos named Trevor Siemian won the starting quarterback job and Carolina has moved to -3.

When it comes to the total, the action hasn't been as exciting. The number opened at 43 and has been slowly bet down a half-point at a time before setting at the current number of 41.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (-6) - Broncos (-2) + home field (-3) = Broncos +1

INJURY REPORT:

Panthers - LB A. Klein (probable Thursday, back), DT V. Butler (probable Thursday, hand), S D. Marlowe (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE K. Ealy (questionable Thursday, concussion).

Broncos - LB D. Ware (probable Thursday, back), C J. Ferentz (questionable Thursday, knee), TE J. Heuerman (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR C. Latimer (questionable Thursday, knee), WR B. Fowler (out Thursday, elbow).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night in Denver to kickoff the 2016 NFL season. The forecast calls for clear skies in the high 70's to start the game. There will be a slight five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting from wast to west across the field.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We obviously have a lot of liability on the Panthers. The wiseguys hit Carolina early and often when this spread opened up back in April. On the money handle 80 percent of the action is on Carolina, and that started when they were a 2.5-point dog. The ticket count is even greater with nearly 90 percent on the visitor. The revenge factor is large and the public loves to play it. The under has been adjusted down two points from the opener and we have 65 percent of the handle on the under. We'll be praying for a high-scoring, easy Broncos victory." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A rare situation where the defending Super Bowl champion enters the season with something to prove as an underdog. They still have a dominating defense that ranked 1st in the league in yards allowed (283) and passing yards allowed (200) per game last year. They also had the third best rush defense (83 yards per game)."

"However, there is no experience at quarterback. Denver cut veteran QB Mark Sanchez which means they enter the season with two quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, who have never started a regular season game. Siemian was mediocre in his three preseason games last month with a 70.4 QB rating and a 1/2 touchdown/interception ratio." - Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2015: 15-1, 11-5 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): Kelvin Benjamin was a spectator throughout the 2015 season after tearing his ACL, but the 6-foot-5 wide receiver will be on the field for the opener - albeit for approximately 35 snaps, according to the Charlotte Observer. "I think that's the best guess," coach Ron Rivera told the newspaper of Benjamin, who has been working on his conditioning. "If it is more, great. I'd be really excited about it. He's done some really good things and you see him getting back into stride and that's probably the best thing." Tight end Greg Olsen, veteran Ted Ginn (team-high 10 touchdowns) and promising second-year wideout Devin Funchess return in the passing game, while rugged Jonathan Stewart (club-best 989 rushing) will look to aid in the ground attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2015: 12-4, 8-8 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U): Demaryius Thomas led the Broncos in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1.304) and tied Emmanuel Sanders in receiving touchdowns (six) last season, but was limited to just one catch for eight yards in the Super Bowl. Thomas will look for a better individual performance versus Carolina as he will likely be shadowed by rookie cornerbacks as opposed to Pro Bowler Josh Norman, who signed a five-year, $75 million deal with Washington in the offseason. Denver would love to get more out of its running game this season as C.J. Anderson (720 yards) struggled throughout the early stages before capping his tumultuous campaign with 90 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 50.

TRENDS:

* Super Bowl winners are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home openers.
* Super Bowl losers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home openers.
* Under is 4-0 in the Panthers' last four season openers.
* Over is 5-1 in the Broncos' last six season openers.

CONSENSUS: The public is strongly backing the favorite in this Super Bowl rematch, with a big 71 percent of wagers on the Panthers. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are backing the Under.

**TheGame** · 09-08-2016, 08:28 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

TNF - Panthers at Broncos
By Tony Mejia

Carolina (-3, 41.5) at Denver, NBC

With apologies to Carolina's Ron Rivera, who doesn’t feel it’s “fair” that the reigning NFC champion has to open the season on the road with a Super Bowl rematch against the Broncos, he’s definitely in the minority when it comes to individuals not looking forward to this matchup.
Rivera’s quarterback appears to be in his coach’s corner.
"A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's not a rematch," Newton told the Associated Press. "It's just our next opponent."
There’s no point in getting too wrapped up in semantics, but the fact is it’s clear that the Panthers are still raw over their Super Bowl 50 loss and not thrilled with having to travel nearly all the way across the country to open the 2016 regular season. It now remains to be seen whether they can channel that frustration into making life miserable for new Denver starting quarterback Trevor Siemian, whose first pass in this game will be the first of his NFL career.
While Peyton Manning was dreadful throughout most of his final season and didn’t have a great Super Bowl (13-for-23, 141 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), his value came in getting the Broncos out of plays that would be blown up by the Panthers, not to mention keeping the rest of the offense loose despite the magnitude of the game. Experience mattered. Siemian doesn’t bring that intangible to the table, but will have a homefield advantage in his back pocket to try and make his life easier against a stingy Carolina defense.
Newton committed costly turnovers in the Super Bowl and ended up a rather ordinary 18-for-41 for 265 yards, adding another 45 on the ground through six carries. It was hardly a Superman-like effort, which led to a controversial post-game press conference and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller clowning the regular-season MVP all offseason. We’re about to see how effective a vengeful Newton can be.

Carolina Panthers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over +120)
Odds to win NFC South: 4/13
Odds to win NFC: 6/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

Denver Broncos
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +130)
Odds to win AFC West: 12/5
Odds to win AFC: 7/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1

LINE MOVEMENT

When the Westgate SuperBook opened Week 1 numbers April 15, Denver was originally listed as a 3-point favorite. Carolina is now the 3-point 'chalk', although the total remains about the same. Weeks before the NFL Draft, WestgateLV placed the total at 43.5. It's currently available at 41.5 there and at most shops.

The unproven Siemian winning the gig over Mark Sanchez, who was ultimately released and landed in Dallas, undoubtedly affected this number despite Denver's homefield edge. Including the postseason, the Broncos are 32-6 straight up at Invesco Field at Mile High.

DENVER D DOMINATES

Miller had a sack, a hurry and a tackle for loss in his final preseason showing, so he seems quite ready for the season to begin. A bigger question mark would have to be standout corner Aqib Talib, whose last play in the Aug. 27 win over the Rams was a late hit on Case Keenum that was whistled for an unnecessary roughness penalty. Talib, who was shot in the leg back in June in an incident Dallas police is still investigating, hasn’t been suspended and will line up in his usual spot at left cornerback opposite standout Chris Harris despite rumors that he can be had for the right offer. Safeties Darian Stewart and T.J. Ward also return in the secondary, Of the 11 Denver defensive starters that lined up in Super Bowl 50, nine return. Only DE Malik Jackson (Jaguars) and LB Danny Trevathan (Bears) are elsewhere, which means the Broncos have a great chance to pick up where they left off. It should be noted that Denver only surrendered more than 20 points in one of their last eight contests, holding the Steelers, Patriots and Panthers to an average of 14.7 points in dominating the postseason.

BENJAMIN RETURNS

After tearing his ACL last August, former top Carolina wideout Kelvin Benjamin will return to action, albeit on a limited snap count. According to Rivera, he sees a target of 35 snaps for Benjamin and would be willing to let him surpass that if he looks like his normal self. Benjamin, a 6-5 freak of a red zone target who had 1,008 receiving yards and nine touchdowns as a rookie, caught six passes for 61 yards in three preseason games. Between Benjamin, 6-foot-4 Devin Funchess and 6-5 tight end Greg Olsen, Newton will have massive weapons to try and solve Denver’s defense.

CAM LOOKS TO BOUNCE BACK

Newton accounted for 45 of the Panthers’ 59 touchdowns last season — 35 passing and 10 more rushing. It looked almost unfair that he was able to lead the Panthers to an average of 40 points per game in wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals to get out of the NFC, but he was overwhelmed in the Super Bowl, which is all anyone remembers. It's further disconcerting that Newton was picked off twice in the preseason dress rehearsal game against New England, finishing just 13-for-29 for 100 yards while putting up just 3 points with the first-team offense. Although Carolina went 15-1 during last year’s regular season, Newton is just 14-18 in his career coming off a loss.

RECENT MEETINGS (Denver 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)

2/7/16 Denver 24-10 vs. Carolina in Santa Clara, CA (CAR -4,5, 43)
11/11/12 Denver 36-14 at Carolina (DEN -3.5, 43.5)
12/14/08 Denver at Carolina 30-10 (CAR -7.5, 48)
10/10/04 Carolina at Denver 20-17 (DEN -4, 38)
11/9/97 Carolina at Denver 34-0 (DEN -8, 42)

DENVER OFFENSE SEEKS REDEMPTION

Because Manning and the offense were carried to the Super Bowl 50 victory by the defense, this Broncos offense does carry a chip on their shoulder entering this one. Look for them to keep life simple for Siemian, who will become the first quarterback ever to start for a reigning NFL champion without a single pass to his credit. He started just 14 games at Northwestern and tore his ACL in his senior season, but he’s won Denver teammates over with his intelligence and ability to translate what he’s learned on to the field. It’s unlikely that he gets pulled due to performance, but it should be noted that while the Broncos defense rightfully gets the bulk of the attention in this matchup, Carolina is also loaded on that side of the ball, returning six of its starting front seven from last year’s Super Bowl intact. Only the retired Jared Allen, replaced by veteran Kony Ealy will be absent, although the secondary has a new look with standouts Josh Norman (Washington) and Roman Harper (New Orleans) gone. If Siemian struggles mightily or is injured, rookie Paxton Lynch is likely to see his first action.

PANTHERS AS ROAD FAVORITE

Carolina was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in this role last season, losing only in Atlanta on Dec. 27 in suffering their only regular-season setback of 2015. The Panthers were a road dog in every game they played in 2014 and were 3-2 SU (1-4 ATS) in this role in '13.

BRONCOS AS A HOME DOG

As you might expect, the Broncos don’t have a lot of experience as an underdog at Mile High, but did just get the job done in sending Tom Brady and the Patriots home in last year’s AFC Championship game as a 3-point dog. They were also getting 2.5 when they beat New England on Nov. 29 during the regular season and blew out Green Bay 29-10 on Nov. 1 of last year when also getting 2.5. Beyond 2015, you have to go back all the way to 2012 for Denver’s last game as a home underdog, a 31-25 loss to Houston when getting just 1.5.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 2 has the Broncos as 3.5-point home favorites over the Colts. Meanwhile, the Panthers are listed at -13.5 at home against the 49ers, by far the largest spread in Week 2.

**TheGame** · 09-08-2016, 08:29 AM

Re: NFL Betting Info Week 1

Free NFL Picks: Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos Betting Odds and Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Seven months and one day ago from Thursday, the Denver Broncos upset the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 at Levi's Stadium near San Francisco. I was a bit surprised that the NFL decided to stage that same showdown in the annual Thursday night Kickoff Game, but that's the case as the Broncos host the Panthers in a rematch.

The reigning Super Bowl champion is 10-2 in these games since they started hosting them. However, the Broncos did host it in 2013 despite not winning it all in 2012. That's because the Baltimore Orioles were playing the night of the scheduled 2013 opener, so the champion Ravens couldn't host. The Broncos cruised that night 49-27 behind a record-tying game from the now-retired Peyton Manning.

This is the first time since 1970 that the two Super Bowl participants meet in Week 1 of the following season. The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Minnesota Vikings 23-7 in Super Bowl IV on Jan. 11, 1970. In Week 1 of 1971, the Chiefs lost 27-10 at Minnesota.

That the Broncos and Panthers play in Super Bowl LI in Houston is +5850.

Panthers at Broncos Betting Story Lines

You can win a Super Bowl with mediocre quarterback play. It's obviously not quite as easy, but the 2000 Baltimore Ravens did it with Trent Dilfer under center. Not exactly a Hall of Famer. The 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers did it with Brad Johnson. What did those two teams have in common? Stellar defenses and good running games. So I'm not ruling out the Denver Broncos repeating as Super Bowl champions, but I sure don't see it with 2015 seventh-round pick Trevor Siemian as their starting QB. I can't believe that guy is starting a game before 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff of the Rams is. Shoot, I can't believe Siemian is starting over Denver's first-round pick this year, Paxton Lynch. I will be shocked if Lynch isn't in there by midseason at the latest.

Siemian didn't exactly tear it up this preseason, going 27-for-43 for 285 yards with a TD and two picks, but he was better than veteran and presumed starter Mark Sanchez, who was released. Lynch had his moments in the preseason but realistically isn't ready yet. I believe an argument could be made that Siemian is the least qualified Week 1 starter for a defending Super Bowl champion in history. And you know who is probably No. 2 on that list? Brian Griese, who replaced a guy named John Elway after Elway led the Broncos to their last title in the 1998 season (going back to back). A retiring Hall of Famer replaced by middling second-year QB from a Big Ten school? Hmm. The 1999 Broncos, by the way, finished 6-10. Clearly that excellent Denver defense is going to have to do the heavy lifting this season. But it largely did last year because the Broncos won the Super Bowl really in spite of Manning, who wasn't very good in his final season. I don't think the Broncos make the playoff this year, however.

Denver will play this game without starting right guard Ty Sambrailo as he's dealing with an elbow injury. Michael Schofield will get the call there. Schofield started every game last season at right tackle but had lost his job at that spot.

Carolina obviously has no quarterback questions with reigning NFL MVP Cam Newton (+800 to repeat). He became the first player in league history with at least 30 passing TDs (35) and at least 10 rushing scored (10) in a season. Newton welcomes back receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who missed all of last year following a training camp injury. In 2014 as a rookie, the former Florida State star caught 73 passes for 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns. Benjamin was limited all preseason with conditioning issues as he attempts to return from his torn ACL and reportedly will play only about 35 snaps in Week 1. Benjamin is +2000 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

Pretty much everyone of note is back for Carolina other than Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman, who for some reason was allowed to simply walk away for nothing when the Panthers rescinded the franchise tag on him. I don't happen to think the Panthers will win the NFC again, but they should claim the weak NFC South for a fourth straight season.

Panthers at Broncos Betting Odds and Trends

At 5dimes, Carolina is a 3-point favorite (-125) with a total of 42. On the money line, the Panthers are -175 and the Broncos +155. On the alternate lines, Carolina is -3.5 (+100) and -2.5 (-150). Last year, the Cats were 5-3 against the spread on the road and 5-3 "over/under." Denver was 4-5-1 ATS and 2-7-1 O/U at home (both including playoffs).

Carolina is 11-5 ATS in its past 16 games overall. It is 2-5 ATS in its past seven in Week 1. Denver is 7-1 ATS in its past eight on Thursday and 7-3-1 ATS in its past 11 in September. The under is 4-0 in the Panthers' past four season openers. The under is 4-1 in the Broncos' past five September games. The under is 3-1-1 in the past five meetings.

Free NFL Picks: Panthers at Broncos Betting Prediction

Denver has the NFL's second-best winning percentage in Week 1 at .666 (Dallas is No. 1 at .673). The Broncos have won their past four season openers. Carolina has won its past two. The Broncos and Panthers haven't played in the regular season since November 2012, a 36-14 Denver win in Charlotte. They haven't played in Denver since 2004.

Maybe the Broncos know something about Siemian I don't, but I'm not buying. I saw that guy play at Northwestern. Give the 2.5-point alternate line and go under the total.

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NFL Betting Info Week 1

NFL Betting Info Week 1

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