Re: NFL Betting Info Week 2
SNF - Packers at Vikings
By Micah Roberts
The Vikings have a new home and a new quarterback they get to show off Sunday night as the Packers visit as 2.5-point favorites. The $1.1 billion U.S. Bank Stadium makes its regular season debut and Sam Bradford is expected to also debut as the starting QB, which will be the 10th different Minnesota starter Packers coach Mike McCarthy has seen over his tenure. Green Bay has gone 15-5-1 straight-up in those meetings behind him.
Minnesota's last home win against the Packers was in 2012, a 37-34 win engineered by Christian Ponder. However, the last time the two teams met the Vikings won 20-13 in Week 17 last season at Green Bay.
The key for Minnesota winning will be getting Adrian Peterson going much better than last week and more to what he's done over his 17 meetings with Green Bay over his career where he's averaged 109 yards per game. They'll also need its stellar defense to slow Aaron Rodgers and create turnovers, which is much easier said than done.
Even though Vikings coach Mike Zimmer hasn't named a starter for a supposed competitive advantage of forcing the Packers to game plan for both Bradford and Shaun Hill, Bradford took most of the snaps with the first string during practices this week. The Vikings offensive game plan is simple and its success basically stems from the quarterback being conservative and not making turnovers. Hill wasn't all that great last week, but he didn't turn the ball over.
Minnesota has covered the spread in three of the past five meetings with Green Bay with the last three staying UNDER the total. Since Week 2 of last season, the Vikings have gone an amazing 15-2 ATS.
LINE MOVEMENT
CG Technology sports books opened the number at pick 'em in April when they released spreads on all games. That was when Teddy Bridgewater was expected to play. When they re-opened the game on Sunday night the Packers were -2.5 and Tuesday it ran up the money ladder a couple times until hitting -3 (EV) where Vikings buy-back came and they're back at -2.5-flat. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43.
"We've had really good two-way action on the Packers-Vikings, even with the uncertainty of the Vikings quarterback," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The only area we're extended on is with a couple limit plays on the UNDER."
William Hill's 105 sports books across Nevada reported that while they had 89 percent of the tickets written on the public Packers, 55 percent of the actual cash on the game was on Minnesota.
LAST WEEK
The sports books got middled last week with the Packers 27-23 win at Jacksonville. Sharp money took the Jaguars at +5, +4.5 and +4, which forced the number to -3.5 on game day and the majority of the public parlays played laid -3.5. The result was also an all-way 4-0 teaser win with both sides and both totals covering. The books took a bath on the game. Jacksonville actually won the yardage battle over Green Bay, 348-to-294.
The Vikings offense sputtered at Tennessee last week, and were down 10-0 at the half, but just like last season the defense and special teams brought them back to win 25-16 as 2.5-point favorites. Minnesota's defense scored two second-half TD's and won the turnover battle, 3-0. The offense managed to put up 301 yards of offense with Adrian Peterson gaining only 31 yards on 19 carries. The books got middled on the total as bettors drove the number down from 43 to 39.5 by kickoff.
WHERE IS THE NUMBER GOING?
The Sunday night isolated games are tricky for the sports books because they have to react a little differently with all the risk from 14 earlier games calculating up into one giant figure. They know exactly how much they're going to lose with that game that has several eight-team parlays ready to cash. The books want to book the game straight-up with line movement justified only by straight-bet action, but if some of the public games hit early in the day the risk for the popular side at a $500,000 loss makes it hard to follow basic booking policy. A Bookmaker's job is to limit risk and protect the house at all times. If they don't react with some kind of maneuvering to get action on the other side, either by the spread or money-line, they're not booking, they're gambling.
With the Packers being the popular public side, if you like the Vikings, your best bet is to wait for +3 to show up on game day as some of those early results are posted and the Packers risk gets larger. Some books don't want to move to +3 and will offer extreme value on the money-line instead, so you should be able to wait for +130 or higher on that end if liking them to win straight up. If liking the Packers, bet it now laying -2.5 or with the low money-line at -130.
FUTURES
After the Seahawks lackluster Week 1 performance against the Dolphins, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook moved Green Bay from 5-to-1 odds to win the NFC down to the 3-to-1 favorite. They also dropped the Pack from 10-to-1 down to 6-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. The only team with lower odds is the Patriots (5/1). Yes, Las Vegas likes the Packers and the betting public likes them too. Minnesota is still holding steady and respected at 10-to-1 to win the NFC and 20/1 to win the Super Bowl.
NEXT UP
The Westgate posts the following weeks spreads on Tuesday and for Week 3 the Packers are 7.5-point home favorites against the Lions (Detroit won there last year). The Vikings are getting +5.5 at Carolina.
SNF - Packers at Vikings
By Micah Roberts
The Vikings have a new home and a new quarterback they get to show off Sunday night as the Packers visit as 2.5-point favorites. The $1.1 billion U.S. Bank Stadium makes its regular season debut and Sam Bradford is expected to also debut as the starting QB, which will be the 10th different Minnesota starter Packers coach Mike McCarthy has seen over his tenure. Green Bay has gone 15-5-1 straight-up in those meetings behind him.
Minnesota's last home win against the Packers was in 2012, a 37-34 win engineered by Christian Ponder. However, the last time the two teams met the Vikings won 20-13 in Week 17 last season at Green Bay.
The key for Minnesota winning will be getting Adrian Peterson going much better than last week and more to what he's done over his 17 meetings with Green Bay over his career where he's averaged 109 yards per game. They'll also need its stellar defense to slow Aaron Rodgers and create turnovers, which is much easier said than done.
Even though Vikings coach Mike Zimmer hasn't named a starter for a supposed competitive advantage of forcing the Packers to game plan for both Bradford and Shaun Hill, Bradford took most of the snaps with the first string during practices this week. The Vikings offensive game plan is simple and its success basically stems from the quarterback being conservative and not making turnovers. Hill wasn't all that great last week, but he didn't turn the ball over.
Minnesota has covered the spread in three of the past five meetings with Green Bay with the last three staying UNDER the total. Since Week 2 of last season, the Vikings have gone an amazing 15-2 ATS.
LINE MOVEMENT
CG Technology sports books opened the number at pick 'em in April when they released spreads on all games. That was when Teddy Bridgewater was expected to play. When they re-opened the game on Sunday night the Packers were -2.5 and Tuesday it ran up the money ladder a couple times until hitting -3 (EV) where Vikings buy-back came and they're back at -2.5-flat. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43.
"We've had really good two-way action on the Packers-Vikings, even with the uncertainty of the Vikings quarterback," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The only area we're extended on is with a couple limit plays on the UNDER."
William Hill's 105 sports books across Nevada reported that while they had 89 percent of the tickets written on the public Packers, 55 percent of the actual cash on the game was on Minnesota.
LAST WEEK
The sports books got middled last week with the Packers 27-23 win at Jacksonville. Sharp money took the Jaguars at +5, +4.5 and +4, which forced the number to -3.5 on game day and the majority of the public parlays played laid -3.5. The result was also an all-way 4-0 teaser win with both sides and both totals covering. The books took a bath on the game. Jacksonville actually won the yardage battle over Green Bay, 348-to-294.
The Vikings offense sputtered at Tennessee last week, and were down 10-0 at the half, but just like last season the defense and special teams brought them back to win 25-16 as 2.5-point favorites. Minnesota's defense scored two second-half TD's and won the turnover battle, 3-0. The offense managed to put up 301 yards of offense with Adrian Peterson gaining only 31 yards on 19 carries. The books got middled on the total as bettors drove the number down from 43 to 39.5 by kickoff.
WHERE IS THE NUMBER GOING?
The Sunday night isolated games are tricky for the sports books because they have to react a little differently with all the risk from 14 earlier games calculating up into one giant figure. They know exactly how much they're going to lose with that game that has several eight-team parlays ready to cash. The books want to book the game straight-up with line movement justified only by straight-bet action, but if some of the public games hit early in the day the risk for the popular side at a $500,000 loss makes it hard to follow basic booking policy. A Bookmaker's job is to limit risk and protect the house at all times. If they don't react with some kind of maneuvering to get action on the other side, either by the spread or money-line, they're not booking, they're gambling.
With the Packers being the popular public side, if you like the Vikings, your best bet is to wait for +3 to show up on game day as some of those early results are posted and the Packers risk gets larger. Some books don't want to move to +3 and will offer extreme value on the money-line instead, so you should be able to wait for +130 or higher on that end if liking them to win straight up. If liking the Packers, bet it now laying -2.5 or with the low money-line at -130.
FUTURES
After the Seahawks lackluster Week 1 performance against the Dolphins, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook moved Green Bay from 5-to-1 odds to win the NFC down to the 3-to-1 favorite. They also dropped the Pack from 10-to-1 down to 6-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. The only team with lower odds is the Patriots (5/1). Yes, Las Vegas likes the Packers and the betting public likes them too. Minnesota is still holding steady and respected at 10-to-1 to win the NFC and 20/1 to win the Super Bowl.
NEXT UP
The Westgate posts the following weeks spreads on Tuesday and for Week 3 the Packers are 7.5-point home favorites against the Lions (Detroit won there last year). The Vikings are getting +5.5 at Carolina.
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