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Had these in the afternoon and night games...
$400 Miami/L.A. Rams over 39.5 LOSER (-440)
$400 Philadelphia/Seattle under 43 $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 Green Bay +3 (-125) LOSER (-500)
"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
I think tonight's game has become a must play after this weekend's results. Saturday of the 21 most heavily bet games the books held that had a greater than 55/45% bet split, the betting public won 15. Of those 21 the books lost 6 of the 7 highest volume games. This is something I track every weekend, and that is the worst week the books had in CFB all year, it's not even close. Today the books had 4 sides that were by far the highest volume and also were one-sidedly bet. The books lost every single one of them. New England, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Miami all covered the number, though some early week bettors pushed the New England play with -13. I liked Houston all along Monday, just was a little leary as to whether Mexico would have a fan base rooting for either team. Texas borders Mexico, my first thought was that Houston would actually have a fan base there, I know the Cowboys do. Let's assume for a second there is no home field advantage as far as the fans. Even on a neutral field this line is WAY outta whack. My raw power rankings have the Raiders as a 3.5 point better team. That means my line would be Oakland -6.5 if they were playing in Oakland, and if they were in Houston basically a Pick 'em. The Raiders are still a young team that plays sloppily, they often kill themselves with penalties. They just played their best game of the season, and this line is an over-reaction to that result. I love fading teams off optimal performances, we bet against Tennessee today because I felt they played as well as they possibly could last week in beating Green Bay. I think Oakland's game against Denver was a very similarly "as good as they can play" performance. The books also know that the Raiders are fast becoming a betting favorite of the public, another reason for the "bad line". Had planned on passing the game, I think with the books heavy losses this weekend, this has become a MUST PLAY.
$400 Houston +6
"The sheer unpredictability of sports is what makes it predictable." Who the hell bets units? I bet money...
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