NFL Plays Week 11

[MacDaddy33]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

I like the penalty thing with Oakland.Was liking Houston all week and also now I'm looking at the under.Here is something I didn't realize and probably alot of others don't either but in doing my homework I found out that Mexicos Stadium is 2000 feet higher than Denvers Mile High Stadium and it is supposed to have the worst air pollution and one of the worst places to play a game.I am now thinking that these players will be winded and we will see more false start penalties meaning longer drives or drive killers resulting in more punts or field goals.Just something else to think about.Was going to bet the under until I saw it moving back up so I'll wait to see what it does and maybe get a better number.Public usually likes the over anyhow so I'll let them drive it up along with the points as spread is up to 6.5 now.Don't post my reasons for liking games that often but this is some of the stupid stuff that interests me.lol maybe it works out maybe it doesn't.That is what makes beating the books fun!Just my thoughts.

tonight

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

I like the penalty thing with Oakland.Was liking Houston all week and also now I'm looking at the under.Here is something I didn't realize and probably alot of others don't either but in doing my homework I found out that Mexicos Stadium is 2000 feet higher than Denvers Mile High Stadium and it is supposed to have the worst air pollution and one of the worst places to play a game.I am now thinking that these players will be winded and we will see more false start penalties meaning longer drives or drive killers resulting in more punts or field goals.Just something else to think about.Was going to bet the under until I saw it moving back up so I'll wait to see what it does and maybe get a better number.Public usually likes the over anyhow so I'll let them drive it up along with the points as spread is up to 6.5 now.Don't post my reasons for liking games that often but this is some of the stupid stuff that interests me.lol maybe it works out maybe it doesn't.That is what makes beating the books fun!Just my thoughts.

tonight

Thanks Mac. Looking back now I definitely should have waited to bet. I was all fired up last night while looking at all the games the books lost this weekend and I jumped the gun. With such a heavy betting majority on Oakland there was no way it was going down off of 6. 5 and 5.5 are basically "non-numbers" that the books almost never put an NFL game on. Now that it is 6.5 I would expect it to go back down to 6. If anyone likes Houston tonight, get it now, 7 is very unlikely to come. Also if you like the under I would grab 45.5, 45 is such a key number for NFL games, I would want to lock in that number as a winner now before it goes back to 45.

[elwood]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

Great info fellas. Im convinced.

[Docwatson]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

Good Luck tonight!

[turbo]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

[GUYDANIO]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

JUMP,

I JUST POSTED ON MAC'S PAGE.

RIGHT NOW THOUGH POST 36

HOUSTON 4
OAKLAND 16

ALL THE TOUTS ARE ON OAKLAND...LOL

[Winningpix]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

I think tonight's game has become a must play after this weekend's results. Saturday of the 21 most heavily bet games the books held that had a greater than 55/45% bet split, the betting public won 15. Of those 21 the books lost 6 of the 7 highest volume games. This is something I track every weekend, and that is the worst week the books had in CFB all year, it's not even close. Today the books had 4 sides that were by far the highest volume and also were one-sidedly bet. The books lost every single one of them. New England, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Miami all covered the number, though some early week bettors pushed the New England play with -13. I liked Houston all along Monday, just was a little leary as to whether Mexico would have a fan base rooting for either team. Texas borders Mexico, my first thought was that Houston would actually have a fan base there, I know the Cowboys do. Let's assume for a second there is no home field advantage as far as the fans. Even on a neutral field this line is WAY outta whack. My raw power rankings have the Raiders as a 3.5 point better team. That means my line would be Oakland -6.5 if they were playing in Oakland, and if they were in Houston basically a Pick 'em. The Raiders are still a young team that plays sloppily, they often kill themselves with penalties. They just played their best game of the season, and this line is an over-reaction to that result. I love fading teams off optimal performances, we bet against Tennessee today because I felt they played as well as they possibly could last week in beating Green Bay. I think Oakland's game against Denver was a very similarly "as good as they can play" performance. The books also know that the Raiders are fast becoming a betting favorite of the public, another reason for the "bad line". Had planned on passing the game, I think with the books heavy losses this weekend, this has become a MUST PLAY.

$400 Houston +6

I like it Jumper, couldn't agree more ! I played a double on Houston at +7 -115

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

This asshole coach of Houston doesn't know shit about game management. First he should have challenged the spit on Miller's 3rd down run. If he isn't going to challenge that he needs to take the chip shot FG to go up by 3 at that point. Instead he challenges the 4th down mark (which the Texans were hosed on again) and then he punts on 4th down their next possession down by 7 with only 1 TO left. The very first drive Houston got jobbed on what should have been a TD. I just am so frustrated I feel like I am watching a fixed game.

[Winningpix]

Re: NFL Plays Week 11

This asshole coach of Houston doesn't know shit about game management. First he should have challenged the spit on Miller's 3rd down run. If he isn't going to challenge that he needs to take the chip shot FG to go up by 3 at that point. Instead he challenges the 4th down mark (which the Texans were hosed on again) and then he punts on 4th down their next possession down by 7 with only 1 TO left. The very first drive Houston got jobbed on what should have been a TD. I just am so frustrated I feel like I am watching a fixed game.

It sure does feel like watching a fixed game and you're 100% right about coach decisions. Makes me wonder. I used to be on the right side of these games that felt like they were fixed. It's crazy. Maybe they're trying to discourage good guys that handicap like you ? Your capping is great Jumper, your luck has been bad. It's like poker or blackjack, you can do everything right that makes sense and still lose. I have to think the tide will turn soon