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NFL Betting Info 11/20

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  • NFL Betting Info 11/20

    NFL notebook: Patriots DE Sheard out vs. 49ers
    By The Sports Xchange


    New England Patriots defensive end Jabaal Sheard did not travel with the team to the Bay Area and will not play in Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers.
    Sheard, 27, was not on the team's injury report this week but was left home because of a performance-based decision, NFL Network's Rapoport reported Saturday.
    Sheard posted on his Instagram page Friday night that he was attending the Boston Celtics-Golden State Warriors game after the team flight had taken off. The post has since been deleted.
    Sheard, who is in the final season of a two-year, $11 million contract, was demoted as the starter for last Sunday night's 31-24 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. He played only 16 snaps in a backup role. He has 18 tackles and 3.5 sacks in nine games this season.
    Trey Flowers started in Sheard's place and had two sacks against the Seahawks.


    --President-elect Donald Trump says Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is "totally innocent" in the Deflategate scandal.
    Trump's comments, shared in a video clip by TMZ Sports, aired Friday night on FOX News in a one-hour special called "OBJECTified: Donald Trump." The special was filmed on Sept. 15 at the then-presidential candidate's home.
    "He's a friend of mine, he's a great guy, and he's a great athlete obviously, but he's a winner," Trump said of Brady.
    Brady was suspended four games without pay by the NFL to start the 2016 season after the league determined he had knowledge of the Patriots using deflated footballs in the AFC Championship Game in 2015 against the Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots went on the win the Super Bowl two weeks later.
    "He played better when he had the other ball," Trump said, noting Brady's performance in the AFC title game with a fully-inflated football. "I think Tom is totally innocent. I think Tom, first of all I know him and he's an honorable guy, and I'm with him all the way."


    --The Indianapolis Colts placed defensive end Kendall Langford on the injured reserve list.
    Langford, 30, had already been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans with a knee injury. He had knee surgery in early August.
    The 6-foot-6, 305-pound Langford started the first seven games of the 2016 season and posted 11 tackles, two passes defensed and one fumble recovery. He had a streak of 135 consecutive games played, which was the longest among active NFL defensive linemen before it ended on Oct. 30.
    The Colts also elevated cornerback Christopher Milton to the 53-man roster from the practice squad.
    The 5-11, 190-pound Milton was originally signed by the Colts as an undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech on May 2. He was waived at the conclusion of training camp and signed to the team's practice squad where he spent the first nine games of the season.


    --Cleveland Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has been subpoenaed to appear in a videotaped deposition in a civil lawsuit against his family business in Tennessee.
    Haslam, CEO of the Pilot Flying J truck-stop chain, is scheduled to appear at the deposition in Knoxville, Tenn., on Dec. 13 to answer questions by lawyers involved in the lawsuit filed over diesel fuel rebate fraud.
    The business is owned by the family of Haslam and his brother, Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam. A court notice was filed Friday in Franklin County, Ohio, for Jimmy Haslam to appear at the deposition.
    The lawsuit was filed by companies that declined to participate in an $85 million settlement between Pilot Flying J and 5,500 trucking companies. Pilot also paid a $92 million federal penalty to the U.S. Department of Justice. Haslam has denied any knowledge of the fraud and has not been charged.

  • #2
    Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

    NFL injury report for Sunday's games


    ARIZONA CARDINALS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
    ARIZONA CARDINALS
    --Doubtful: DT Corey Peters (foot)
    --Questionable: S Deone Bucannon (ankle), S Tyrann Mathieu (shoulder), CB Tharold Simon (ankle)
    MINNESOTA VIKINGS
    --Out: DT Sharrif Floyd (knee)
    --Questionable: LB Eric Kendricks (hip), CB Captain Munnerlyn (ankle), CB Marcus Sherels (ankle)


    BALTIMORE RAVENS at DALLAS COWBOYS
    BALTIMORE RAVENS
    --Out: TE Crockett Gilmore (thigh), T Alex Lewis (ankle)
    --Doubtful: LB Elvis Dumervil (foot), CB Jimmy Smith (back), RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (thigh)
    --Questionable: LB Kamalei Correa (thigh), DT Timmy Jernigan (shoulder), LB C.J. Mosley (thigh), CB Shareece Wright (thigh), G Marshal Yanda (shoulder)
    DALLAS COWBOYS
    --Out: S Barry Church (forearm), CB Morris Claiborne (groin)
    --Questionable: WR Dez Bryant (back), T Chaz Green (foot, back), DE Demarcus Lawrence (back), QB Tony Romo (back), T Tyron Smith (back, hip)


    BUFFALO BILLS at CINCINNATI BENGALS
    BUFFALO BILLS
    --Out: DT Corbin Bryant (shoulder)
    --Questionable: DT Marcell Dareus (groin), LB Jerry Hughes (hand), WR Justin Hunter (groin), WR Walter Powell (hip), WR Robert Woods (foot)
    CINCINNATI BENGALS
    --Doubtful: TE C.J. Uzomah (calf)
    --Questionable: DE Wallace Gilberry (calf)


    CHICAGO BEARS at NEW YORK GIANTS
    CHICAGO BEARS
    --Doubtful: CB Deiondre' Hall (ankle), T Bobby Massie (concussion), DE Mitch Unrein (back)
    --Questionable: CB Bryce Callahan (hamstring), DT Eddie Goldman (ankle), LB Pernell McPhee (knee), CB Tracy Porter (knee), WR Eddie Royal (toe), G Josh Sitton (ankle), WR Marquess Wilson (foot), LB Willie Young (ankle)
    NEW YORK GIANTS
    --Out: C Brett Jones (calf), G Justin Pugh (knee)
    --Questionable: RB Orleans Darkwa (lower leg), G Adam Gettis (calf)


    JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at DETROIT LIONS
    JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
    --Out: DE Chris Smith (eye)
    --Questionable: LB Dan Skuta (back), TE Neal Sterling (foot), WR Bryan Walters (concussion)
    DETROIT LIONS
    --Doubtful: LB DeAndre Levy (knee)
    --Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (ankle), RB Theo Riddick (ankle)


    MIAMI DOLPHINS at LOS ANGELES RAMS
    MIAMI DOLPHINS
    --Out: T Branden Albert (wrist), CB Xavien Howard (knee)
    --Doubtful: LB Jelani Jenkins (knee, hand), C Mike Pouncey (hip)
    --Questionable: S Isa Abdul-Quddus (ankle), T Jermon Bushrod (shoulder), LB Mike Hull (knee), DE Jason Jones (knee), WR Jarvis Landry (shoulder), G Anthony Steen (neck), WR Kenny Stills (calf), DE Mario Williams (ankle)
    LOS ANGELES RAMS
    --Questionable: C Tim Barnes (foot), RB Todd Gurley (thigh), CB Lamarcus Joyner (ankle), DE Robert Quinn (illness), DE Eugene Sims (concussion)


    NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
    NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
    --Out: TE Rob Gronkowski (chest), WR Chris Hogan (back)
    --Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle), WR Julian Edelman (foot)
    SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
    --Out: LB Aaron Lynch (ankle)
    --Questionable: CB Rashard Robinson (knee), WR Torrey Smith (shoulder)


    PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
    PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
    --Out: S Terrence Brooks (hamstring)
    --Questionable: TE Zach Ertz (hamstring), WR Jordan Matthews (back)
    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
    --Out: DE Michael Bennett (knee), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (hamstring)


    PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
    PITTSBURGH STEELERS
    --Out: DE Cameron Heyward (pectoral), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), S Shamarko Thomas (groin), WR Markus Wheaton (shoulder), RB DeAngelo Williams (knee)
    --Questionable: S Jordan Dangerfield (groin), TE Xaiver Grimble (quadricep)
    CLEVELAND BROWNS
    --Questionable: CB Tramon Williams (knee)


    TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
    TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
    --Out: T Kevin Pamphile (concussion), RB Jacquizz Rodgers (foot), C Evan Smith (knee)
    --Questionable: C Joe Hawley (knee), WR Russell Shepard (hip), TE Luke Stocker (ankle)
    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
    --Out: WR Jeremy Maclin (groin)
    --Doubtful: DE Jaye Howard (hip)
    --Questionable: CB Phillip Gaines (neck), LB Justin Houston (knee), LB Derrick Johnson (hamstring), CB Marcus Peters (hip), DT Dontari Poe (knee), LS James Winchester (not injury related)


    TENNESSEE TITANS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
    TENNESSEE TITANS
    No injuries.
    INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
    --Out: DE Kendall Langford (knee)
    --Doubtful: CB Patrick Robinson (groin)
    --Questionable: DT Arthur Jones (illness)


    GREEN BAY PACKERS at WASHINGTON REDSKINS on Sunday night
    GREEN BAY PACKERS
    --Out: G T.J. Lang (foot), CB Damarious Randall (groin), LB Jake Ryan (ankle), C J.C. Tretter (knee)
    --Questionable: TE Jared Cook (ankle), LB Clay Matthews (hamstring)
    WASHINGTON REDSKINS
    --Questionable: WR DeSean Jackson (shoulder), T Morgan Moses (ankle), LS Nick Sundberg (back)


    HOUSTON TEXANS at OAKLAND RAIDERS on Monday night
    HOUSTON TEXANS
    --Out: RB Alfred Blue (calf), RB Jonathan Grimes (illness), WR Jaelen Strong (ankle)
    --Questionable: WR Will Fuller (knee), RB Jay Prosch (hamstring), DT Vince Wilfork (groin)
    OAKLAND RAIDERS
    --Questionable: WR Amari Cooper (back), C Rodney Hudson (knee), DT Stacy McGee (ankle), RB Latavius Murray (ankle), G Kelechi Osemele (knee), CB Sean Smith (shoulder)

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

      Opening Line Report - Week 11
      By Marcus DiNitto


      Here are the opening betting lines for Week 11 of the 2016 NFL season, with insight from Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


      Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at about 11 p.m. ET, and early moves and differences among sports books are also noted.


      Sunday, Nov. 20


      Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, -120)


      Tennessee has won four of its last six games, while Indy has alternated wins and losses over its last seven. Still, it’ll take some guts to back the Titans here, as they have lost 10 straight meetings against the Colts and 15 of the last 16. The Colts won in Tennessee in Week 7, 34-26 as 4-point dogs.


      Meanwhile, these are two of the best ‘over’ teams in the league, Tennessee sporting an 8-2 O/U record and Indy going 7-2 to the ‘over’ so far.


      Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5)


      The Lions are on a quiet run, winning four of their last five games. They’re also coming off a bye to face a woeful Jaguars team that has lost four in a row. But this game has a similar feel to Detroit’s Week 2 contest against Tennessee, when the Lions were beaten 16-15 as 6-point favorites.


      Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)


      The Chiefs opened as high as -9, at CG Technology, but the line was adjusted to -8 about 20 minutes later. Most Vegas bet shops, though, opened Kansas City -7.5.


      Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-6)


      It was strange seeing the two-win Bears as field-goal road favorites Sunday, and sure enough, they were beaten in Tampa Bay, 36-10. Chicago is now 0-5 on the road this season, both SU and ATS.


      Arizona Cardinals (-1) at Minnesota Vikings


      This NFC clash opened pick ‘em on some betting boards in Vegas.


      Looking like one of the better teams in the league after a 5-0 start, Minnesota’s loss at Washington on Sunday was its fourth straight defeat.


      Arizona isn’t lighting it up, either. The Cardinals’ last three games: a dreary 6-6 tie at Seattle, a 30-20 loss in Carolina, a game they were never really in; and a too-close-for-comfort 23-20 win as 13.5-point home favorites against San Francisco on Sunday.


      Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-4)


      The Westgate opened Cincy -4, while CG Technology went -4.5. Even though the Bengals are home, this is a tough spot for them, as they have a short week after Monday’s game at the Giants and the Bills are coming off a bye.


      Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7)


      The streaky Ravens take a major step up in class with a visit to 8-1 Dallas, but this is a sandwich game for the Cowboys, in between Sunday’s whacky win in Pittsburgh and a Thanksgiving Day meeting with the Redskins.


      Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Cleveland Browns


      At the Westgate on Sunday night, Pittsburgh bounced between -8.5 and -9.5, big numbers to lay on the road for a team that has lost four in a row outright and whose defense is having trouble getting stops. Then again, the Steelers are playing the winless Browns, who have covered just two spreads all season.


      Miami Dolphins (-1) at Los Angeles Rams


      This game opened pick ‘em at the Westgate before a move in Miami’s direction. The Dolphins, whose 31-24 win at San Diego was their fourth straight overall, are staying on the West Coast this week as they prepare for the Rams.


      Salmons likes what coach Adam Gase is doing in Miami. “They (traditionally have done) so many stupid things out there, and it’s hard to get them out of that,” Salmons said of the Dolphins. “But he’s slowly but surely doing it. He’s done a really nice job there.”


      ESPN’s Adam Schefter report Sunday morning that the Rams may start Jared Goff, the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, vs. Miami for the first time. That’s a move Salmons believes should have been made a long time ago.


      “The Rams offense is atomically bad,” Salmons said. “It’s amazing they refuse to switch quarterbacks”


      New England Patriots (-14) at San Francisco 49ers


      The league’s highest-rated team visiting one of the lowest results in a two-touchdown road favorite, an NFL rarity.


      Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-5)


      The Seahawks opened -4.5 and were pushed to -5 at the Westgate. Winning at Seattle is a tall order for the Eagles, whose only win on the road this season came in Week 2 at Chicago. Other than that game, they are 0-4 SU and ATS away from Philly.


      Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-2.5)


      Washington opened -3 at the Westgate before a move off the key number to -2.5. Before you lay the short number, remember that the Redskins were 2-point favorites over the Packers in the playoff last season and got waxed, 35-18.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

        NFL opening line report: Cowboys heavily favored over visiting Ravens in Week 11
        By PATRICK EVERSON


        Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, the team with the best record in the land is the one that lost its starting quarterback in the preseason. We talk about the Week 11 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor.


        Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7)


        Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott just keep getting it done for Dallas, and Week 10 was no exception. The Cowboys (8-1 SU and ATS) scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes – on Elliott runs of 14 and 32 runs, sandwiched between a Pittsburgh TD – to pull out a riveting 35-30 victory as a 3-point road underdog.


        Since dropping their season opener against the visiting New York Giants, the Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS, sitting not only atop the NFC, but the rest of the league after New England lost to Seattle on Sunday night.


        Baltimore (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has posted back-to-back wins, both in division play, and now actually leads the muddled AFC North. The Ravens drubbed league doormat Cleveland 28-7 laying 7.5 points in the Week 10 Thursday nighter.


        “The Cowboys are the hottest team in football, and they’re going to attract a ton of money in this game,” Childs said. “The Ravens, having played Thursday night, have what I like to call a ‘mini bye,’ giving them three days for extra rest and extra prep time. We opened the Cowboys a full touchdown favorite, and as expected, we’ve seen our fair share of Cowboys money. But not enough to move off the key number of 7, so we added 5 more cents of juice, going to -7 (-115).”


        Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6)


        Seattle just might be in its back-to-back Super Bowl seasons form. The Seahawks (6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) went into New England on Sunday night as a 7.5-point pup and came out with a 31-24 victory after making a goal-line stand in the final minute.


        Meanwhile, Philadelphia might be recapturing some of its early-season magic. The Eagles (5-4 SU and ATS) snapped a 1-4 SU and ATS slide by handcuffing Atlanta’s potent offense in a 24-15 win laying 2 points at home.


        “After a very impressive Sunday night win, we opened the Seahawks -6,” Childs said. “While the Eagles have played solid football this season, they’re a disappointing 1-4 both straight up and against the spread on the road. Seattle is arguably the loudest and toughest place to play for road teams. Throw in the Seahawks’ impressive win on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL on national TV, and I can see this line only going up.”


        Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-3)


        Green Bay beat Washington in the wild-card round of the playoffs last year, but Aaron Rodgers and Co. return to D.C. looking nothing like the team that posted a 35-18 win getting 2 points. On Sunday at Tennessee, the Packers (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) gave up 35 first-half points in a 47-25 loss as a 3-point favorite.


        Washington is trying to get in gear in the NFC playoff chase. The Redskins (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) topped Minnesota 26-20 as a 2.5-point home fave Sunday.


        “No question, the Packers are the most disappointing team this season. For a team that had Super Bowl aspirations, they’re in a dogfight just to make the playoffs,” Childs said. “That said, they’ve been a Bookmaker’s dream, because week in and week out, they’re taking action from the public and not getting the money. But this is flat out must win game for the Packers, against a team they dominated last year in the playoffs.


        “The Redskins are off a very nice win over the Vikings, but playing in the ultra-competitive NFC East, this game is huge for them to keep pace for a wild-card spot. Throw in the fact that the ‘Skins face three straight road games after this game, and it’s almost a must-win home game for them.”

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

          NFL Week 11 lines that make you go hmmm...
          By PETER KORNER


          Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 11:


          Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 46)


          This opener struck me as a little low from the onset, especially as it appears that Seattle may be reaching its preseason hype and potential after beating the New England Patriots this past week.


          I made this number at the -7 mark, actually - no lower than -7 (-120), so I was surprised to see this a couple of plays below the key number. But I understand why it stands at -6. After their first road victory of the season against a lame Chicago team, the Eagles have lost four straight away from Philadelphia. To their credit they hung close in all four losses but playing in Seattle may be a bigger bite than they can chew.


          Seattle’s results at home have not been by wide margins by any means and this too, definitely played into the early low number. But sometimes you can’t go by what was, and have to forecast that these two teams do not equate to their previous results. I see nothing but pay dirt for Seattle this week and do not fear a letdown after their big win in New England. I definitely see Seahawk money come kickoff so the play is early in the week for this one if you’re a Seattle backer.


          Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)


          If you haven’t noticed, the Chiefs are on a five-game win streak which has been driven by their defense. Allowing a tad over 15 points per game in the current skein, Kansas City is undefeated at home as well. I made this game closer to -8.5, bordering -9, as I am unimpressed with Tampa Bay’s slick 3-1 record on the road.


          Add to that, that the Buccaneers last three wins overall have come against Carolina, San Francisco and Chicago – who have a combined 6-21 record. I’m missing something here that has the inferior team within a one-possession game.


          The Chiefs have the incentive here as they are engaged with Oakland and Denver in the hotly contested AFC West. They also possess the playoff advantages in the division that they know can be lost in a moment’s notice.


          We’re coming into the time where we will be playing the teams that are playing well, fighting for playoff positioning and playing in venues where victories are common, The Chiefs fit that bill in this one and we liken them to throw down the hammer here.


          Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)


          Dallas has been living the dream this year but a closer look unveils a streak of excellent games against mediocre opponents. Though last week’s win over Pittsburgh is well noted, the emotional high of the quality game spells letdown against a sneaky-good team that possesses an excellent defense of their own.


          Baltimore is 5-4 and leading its division. This is due to the Ravens’ defensive efforts throughout the season - a consistent resistance that has yielded scores of 20 or less in six of their nine games. Coming off two straight wins, including a win of their own over Pittsburgh just two weeks ago, tells me the Ravens can get the deal done this week. They may not win, but this looks like a closer game than what Bookmakers are currently dealing. I made this game in the -6 range. I actually see a Baltimore +7.5 on the board so if you can grab it, do so.


          This game appears to have opened at -6.5 at a scant few places before some early pops on the line lifted this up a little higher than what I think is achievable. This is not on the Bookmakers as much as the early money drove this to unattainable levels. Maybe a set up? We’ll have to see where the money goes on game day. But for now, if you see the hook, take it. Just don’t miss out on the points before it goes below the key number.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

            Wiseguys are advising that these Week 11 NFL lines are going to move
            By AAA SPORTS


            Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.


            Game to bet now


            Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-7.5)


            Looks like we’ve been sleeping on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight wins and now share (with New England and Oakland) the best record in the AFC at 7-2. Granted, those last four wins (New Orleans, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Carolina) have come against teams with a combined 13-23 record, but they all count.


            The Chiefs have this one more game against a mediocre opponent before running a Denver-Atlanta-Oakland gauntlet which will go a long way toward determining if they can stand up to the league’s iron. Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to string two wins together this season but remains in both the NFC South and playoff mixes in a muddled NFC. Betting is steady on both ends in this one and the line should remain stable barring any new injury reports or heavy one-way betting.


            Game to wait on


            Houston at Oakland (-5.5) (Monday night)


            The AFC West is where the action is this season, where the Chiefs and Broncos now have to contend with the Raiders. The swag is definitely back in Oakland, where the Raiders are giving their fans plenty to remember in what may be their final year on the coast before moving to Las Vegas. Oakland has won three in a row, is coming off its biggest win in years (at home over Denver on Nov. 6), has had a bye week off to rest and get healthy, and has three more home games in a row.


            Houston, which is 6-3 but has been outscored by 188-161 this season, looks like the weakest division leader. The Texans had just enough gas to get by Jacksonville last week, but there is concern about Brock Osweiler, who was just 14 for 27 against the Jags and threw for only 99 yards.


            Total to watch


            Buffalo at Cincinnati (46.5)


            At 4-5 the Bills look like they’re headed for another trip to Mediocreville, but there is one bright spot – namely, Buffalo has shown that it can score points on the road. In fact, the Bills have averaged nearly 27 points in their last three road games and are a solid 7-2 on the over this season.


            The semi-burst has allowed the Bills to move toward the middle of the pack in the league offensively, and bodes well for this Sunday’s game against the Bengals – who rank 24th in the league defensively. Over players have already bet this game up a point from its 46.5 open.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

              'Dogs to Watch - Week 11


              After last week's article had the shortest list of underdogs on it, it was a bit surprising to see two of the three win outright and the 49ers doing what they could to make it a clean sweep. Miami and Seattle sealed their victories in the final minute and bettors that weren't afraid to eschew the points and play those money lines were handsomely rewarded.


              This week it's a much bigger list of NFL underdogs getting four points or more as we welcome the Cleveland Browns to the festivities once again. As I've been saying for weeks, Cleveland isn't worth a ML play until they prove that they can actually win a game, so no need to go any further on them this week.


              Week 11 Underdogs That Qualify


              Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5); ML (+220)
              Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5); ML (+230)
              Chicago Bears (+7.5); ML (+280)
              Baltimore Ravens (+7); ML (+275)
              Cleveland Browns (+9); ML (+280)
              San Francisco 49ers (+13); ML (+625)
              Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5); ML (+250)
              Houston Texans (+6); ML (+205)


              Right off the bat we can eliminate the 49ers (along with the Browns) as they are in the same category as Cleveland these days and might actually be the worse overall team. San Fran hosts a New England team fresh off their first loss with Tom Brady and there is no way you want to get in front of that train. That leaves six teams on the list and all of them have intriguing matchups this week.


              Houston is in Oakland on MNF and get a rested Raiders team off their bye. The Texans won in Jacksonville last week despite QB Brock Osweiler throwing for just 99 yards in the game as his road struggles appear to be never ending. Although Houston did prove they could win on the road last week, there is no way I'm considering a ML bet on them this week.


              Speaking of Jacksonville, the Jags are on the road to face another team coming off their bye in the Detroit Lions. The Lions find themselves in a tie for 1st in the NFC North and QB Matthew Stafford has had a resurgent year now that he's looking for the open receiver and not just if Calvin Johnson is open. We could see quite a few points put up here and Jacksonville definitely has a shot.


              It's been a few years since the Lions were used to being a winning team and having the bye could have killed much of the momentum they've been building. For all their struggles, Jacksonville has been a much better football team away from home and could surprise some this week.


              The other four teams (Baltimore, Chicago, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay) are all on the road as well and have some difficult matchups. But of those four, the two teams I'm willing to roll with on the ML are Baltimore (+275) in Dallas, and Tampa Bay (+230) in Kansas City.


              Baltimore gets to take their shot at a Cowboys team that appears to have put the Dak Prescott/Tony Romo story behind them at least for this week. Dallas hasn't lost since Week 1 when they fell to the Giants, but eventually that bubble will burst and this could be the week.


              Four of Dallas' last five games have been against tough opponents (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Cincinnati), and after this Baltimore game they've got a short week for a Thanksgiving matchup with division rival Washington, followed by road games at Minnesota and at NY Giants. All of their success has finally started to see a bit of line inflation with the Cowboys and a veteran Ravens team is more than capable of knocking them off and reopening the Prescott/Romo debate once again.


              Tampa Bay got their first home victory of the year a week ago, but this would be more of a play against a Kansas City team that I'm not a big believer in. Carolina basically handed the Chiefs the win on Sunday and the rate at which KC has been forcing/recovering turnovers is unsustainable.


              The Bucs are still in the thick of things in the NFC South and a huge win this week could propel them to a final six week stretch where they are playing meaningful football for the first time in years. At +230, the value is there, especially when the Chiefs could be looking past the Bucs a little bit and ahead to their game at Denver in Week 12.


              So look for one of Baltimore (+275), Tampa Bay (+230), or Jacksonville (+220) to come away with the outright upset this week as playoff races heat up and the parity in the 2016 NFL season continues to grow.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

                NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11
                By MONTY ANDREWS


                Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.


                New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 51.5)


                Saints' second-half success vs. Panthers' poor post-halftime showing


                This should be a good one - at least for those who love offense - as the Saints and Panthers do battle in a showdown between NFC South rivals. The teams combined for a whopping 79 points in their first encounter this season, and similar fireworks could be in the offing in what Vegas has pegged as one of the highest-scoring games of the week. And while the Saints have shown an aptitude for scoring late, the Panthers will need to figure it out to avoid a season sweep.


                Led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints have been one of the most prolific second-half teams in the league through the first 10 weeks of the campaign. New Orleans ranks second in the NFL at 15.1 points after halftime per game, behind only the division-rival Atlanta Falcons (16.1). The Saints overcame a sluggish start last week with 20 second-half points, but ultimately fell short in a 25-23 loss to the Denver Broncos.


                That bodes poorly for the Panthers, who have shown improvement on defense since the early weeks of the season but has struggled when it comes to preventing points after the break. Carolina is coughing up 16 second-half points per game on average; only the San Diego Chargers (17.2) have been more generous in that regard. Brees and the Saints have proven to be nearly unstoppable in the second half of games - and the Panthers aren't equipped to deal with it.


                Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees


                Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 52)


                Titans' sack-happy ways vs. Colts' QB protection issues


                Second place in the AFC North is up for grabs Sunday afternoon as the Titans' improving defense meets Andrew Luck and the high-octane Colts in Indianapolis. This game could very well be decided by how well Indianapolis can protect its franchise quarterback - and judging by the sack stats through the first 10 weeks of the season, Luck might find himself on the run - or worse, on his back - a healthy number of times.


                The Titans have been an above-average team at getting to the QB this season, ranking 10th in sack rate at 6.76 percent. Veteran linebackers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan led the way in that regard, combining for 15.5 sacks and 114 sack yards lost. And when it comes to pressuring quarterbacks in hostile territory, Tennessee is even better - recording the third-best road sack rate (8.57 percent) in the league.


                Meanwhile, the Colts may possess one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in football, but keeping Luck upright has been a legitimate problem so far in 2016. Indianapolis has the highest sack rate against in the league at 8.68 percent; Indianapolis has yielded 33 sacks through the first 10 games, even after limiting Tennessee to just two in a 34-26 win over the Titans back on Oct. 24. Things should be much tougher for Luck and the Colts this time around.


                Daily fantasy watch: Tennessee D/ST


                Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 40.5)


                Dolphins' red-zone stinginess vs. Rams' lack of scoring chances


                Don't look now, but the Dolphins have rekindled their fading playoff hopes on the strength of a four-game winning streak that has surged them above the .500 mark for the season. At the same time, the Los Angeles Rams are clinging to postseason hopes by a thread despite escaping with a thrilling 9-6 win over the New York Jets last week. The Rams have struggled getting into the red zone all season, and things don't get any easier this weekend.


                Much of the attention for the Miami resurgence has fallen on running back Jay Ajayi, but the Dolphins' defense deserves just as much credit - if not more. Miami enters the week ranked sixth in the NFL in fewest red-zone visits allowed per game at just 2.9; only Baltimore, Arizona, Minnesota, Green Bay and the Jets have been stingier. It's a modest improvement from the 2015 campaign, when the Dolphins allowed 3.1 opponent red-zone visits per game.


                As for the Rams, well, they're about as bad as you would expect them to be given their widespread scoring troubles. Los Angeles is tied with the Ravens for the fewest red-zone scoring chances per game at 2.3; the Cleveland Browns are the only other team below 2.5. And if you can believe it, that rate is actually better than what the Rams put up in their last season in St. Louis, when they made just 2.2 red-zone visits per game. Ugh.


                Daily fantasy fade: RB Todd Gurley


                Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 46)


                Texans' interior D-line troubles vs. Raiders' stacked O-line


                The Raiders find themselves in a three-horse race atop the AFC West in what has shaped up as the best division race in the league. Coming into the week tied with the Kansas City Chiefs and a half-game ahead of the Denver Broncos, Oakland faces a stiff test in Week 11 against a Texans team that has the outright lead in the AFC South. But the Raiders have an enormous advantage it will look to exploit against visiting Houston this weekend.


                Oakland has built one of the most impressive offensive lines in the game, a group that deserves much of the credit for the successes of quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray and receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Three of the team's five starting O-linemen - LT Donald Penn, LG Kelechi Osemele and C Rodney Hudson - have Pro Football Focus grades of 84.8 or better. Simply put, the left side of the Raiders' offensive line is second only to the Dallas Cowboys' front.


                Houston has elite ends to counter the Oakland periphery - DRE Jadeveon Clowney (79.2 PFF grade) and DLE Whitney Mercilus (83.9) are certainly capable of pressuring the quarterback. But the interior duo of DRT Vince Wilfork (45.7) and DLT Christian Covington (42.3) is among the worst in the league, and could make things incredibly difficult for the Texans' next level of defense, particularly against Oakland's stout rush attack.


                Daily fantasy watch: RB Latavius Murray

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

                  'Eagles-Seahawks in Defensive Struggle'


                  Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks November 20, 4:25 EST


                  The last time the Philadelphia Eagles visited the Seattle Seahawks, the quarterbacks were Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson. That was five years ago; this Sunday's rematch (4:25 PM ET, CBS) in Seattle will look remarkably different, with rookie Carson Wentz piloting the Eagles and three-time Pro Bowler Russell Wilson leading the Seahawks.


                  Here's another big difference: Seattle (6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) was a 3-point home dog in that 2011 contest. At press time, the 'Hawks are 6.5-point favorites for Sunday's tilt with a total of 44.5. Although these are two of the best defenses in the NFL, the OVER is 5-4 for each team in 2016; the Eagles (5-4 SU and ATS) have padded their stats with two kick returns for touchdowns, plus a pick-six and a safety. Seattle has just the lone fumble return thus far.


                  It speaks to the quality of the two quarterbacks in question. Wilson hasn't done much scrambling this year, but his passing game is still Top 10 in the league according to efficiency. Wentz is holding his own for a rookie; however, his numbers for the year are those of a replacement-level quarterback. Philly's defense and special teams are the ones driving the bus.


                  Trends of Interest:


                  Eagles 1-9 ATS vs NFC West
                  Eagles 0-6 ATS off a win facing NFC West
                  Eagles 0-4 ATS after playing Falcons
                  Eagles 3-8-1 O/U off W vs NFC West


                  Seahawks 8-3-1 ATS off upset win as Dog
                  Seahawks 6-2 ATS vs NFC East
                  Seahawks 3-7 O/U after B-2-B SU/ATS wins

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

                    'Cowboys face tough test'


                    Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys November 20, 1:00 EST


                    The Cowboys (8-1 SU/ATS) off one of the most exciting games of the season defeating Steelers 35-30 as a 3-point road underdog are a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS since dropping their season opener. Baltimore spanking league doormat Cleveland 28-7 laying 7.5 points in the Week 10 Thursday nighter has posted back-to-back division wins to lead the muddled AFC North with a 5-4 (4-5 ATS) record.


                    Cowboys will be tested against Baltimore's top-ranked run defense (71.3 RYG), 5th-ranked pass 'D' (210.2 PYG). But, with Ezekiel Elliott seemingly unstoppable, Prescott playing mistake-free football edge remains with the home town 'Boys'


                    Consider Dallas who has been good bets in this situation. The Cowboys have cashed four straight off an upset win as Dogs, have a sparkling 11-3 record ATS following a win the previous effort, 5-0 ATS streak vs an AFC North opponent. A final few betting nuggets favoring Cowboys. NFC East has dominated at the betting window this season facing the AFC North posting a money-making 10-1 record against the betting line. Baltimore is not in a situation you can hang your hopes on. Ravens enter a money-burning 0-6-1 ATS off back-2-back SU/ATS wins, a cash-draining 0-9-1 ATS facing a squad off back-2-back SU/ATS wins, 1-4-1 ATS vs non-conference foes.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

                      Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
                      By Micah Roberts


                      The betting public in Las Vegas is jumping on their favorites teams in NFL Week 11 again hooking up Dallas, New England and whoever is playing the Browns and 49ers, and why not because that combination is 30-7 against-the-spread this season. But before we get into the line moves initiated from sharps and what the public is playing on their parlays, let's talk a bit about the cold front hitting the northeast this weekend.


                      We haven't had to pay too much attention to weather conditions the first 10 weeks of the season because its been relatively nice everywhere, for the most part. But snow fell in Denver on Thursday night (Broncos have a bye this week) and a couple of NFL games this weekend should have weather play a role in the outcome, in particular the totals.


                      Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says the cold and snow isn't that big of deal when dealing the sides and totals, but when factoring in wind conditions, that's when it has a huge effect to the numbers. Its a good piece of advice to follow, and sharps are.


                      The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Steelers as 9.5-point favorites at Cleveland, a number inflated just because the books know who the masses are going to bet. The total opened at 49.5. But with a 40 percent chance of snow showers and gusting winds off the lake up to 30 mph and a wind chill of 28 degrees, the Steelers are now -8 and the total has been dropped to 44.5. No matter how good a QB is, 30 mph winds are a tall task to overcome.


                      Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick said sharp action has the Browns once again, which isn't necessarily because of the weather, but because there was 2.5 to 3-points of value with them -- just like last Thursday against Baltimore. Stations opened the total Monday at 50 and large bets pushed them down daily to 44.5 by Friday which is what most books in town are showing.


                      The Westgate opened the Giants as six-point home favorites against the lowly Bears with a total at 47.5, and they've been bet up to -7.5 and the total has been bet down to 43.5 -- in part because of winds up to 25 mph with a wind chill at 38 degrees. McCormick says his books have taken lots of public action on the Giants.


                      Station books have also taken large bets on the Eagles-Seahawks 'under' from 46 down to 43. Not much wind is expected in Seattle, but there's a 40 percent chance of rain. The interesting part of that sharp move is that Philly has gone 'over' the total in all five of their road games and Russell Wilson looks healthy and comes off his best performance of the season at New England.


                      There's a 40 percent chance of light rain at San Francisco when the Patriots visit Sunday afternoon -- not much wind, but that's not why sharp money took the 49ers at +14 all the way down +12 which has a few books at -11.5 on Friday. Just like the inflated number against the Browns, the Patriots were inflated by 2.5 to 3-points just to make the public lay a bad number and attract large money on the value with the underdog. It worked. The 49ers ended and seven-game non-cover streak last week in a 23-20 last second loss at Arizona (-14).


                      McCormick said another sharp play among his 19 books in town was on the Vikings at home against the sluggish Cardinals. Minnesota is on a four-game losing streak, but large money bet them at +1, pick 'em, -1 and -1.5. They're currently the high Las Vegas number at -2 with a total at 40.


                      Stations top public plays are Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England, Seattle and the Giants, but bettors were thrown a loop last week as Dallas (8-1 ATS) was their only team to come through. Bettors are also low on cash.


                      "Low handles so far this week after last weeks big win for the books," said McCormick.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

                        Total Talk - Week 11
                        By Chris David


                        Week 10 Recap


                        Total bettors saw a stalemate in last week’s 14-game slate (7-7) and a couple of contests had some fortunate or unfortunate endings. The Chargers led the Dolphins 10-7 at halftime and ‘under’ bettors (49) were confident with that score but turnovers and big plays contributed to 38 points in the final 30 minutes.


                        Another game that turned at halftime was the Arizona-San Francisco matchup. The Cardinals led 20-10 at the break and the ‘over’ (47) was on a great pace. Sure enough, the worst defense in the league stifled the Cardinals to three points in the second half and the game stayed ‘under’ the number as the pair combined for six field goals. Through 10 weeks of the regular season, the ‘over’ holds the edge with a 79-67-1 (54%) record.


                        Keep an Eye On!


                        -- The Bears have scored 20 or more points once this season but the Giants have allowed 21.6 points per game at home this season.


                        -- Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season but all three ‘over’ winners took place on the road.


                        -- Including last week’s ‘over’ result versus Pittsburgh, the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 8-2 in their last 10 games against AFC opponents.


                        -- Something has to give on the total between Kansas City (Under 7-2) and Tampa Bay (Over 6-3) when they meet at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.


                        -- Detroit has seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 the last four years in the previous game before their annual Thanksgiving Day battle. The offense averaged 17 PPG during this span, which has resulted in a 1-3 SU record.


                        Divisional Action


                        Tennessee at Indianapolis: The Colts outlasted the Titans 34-26 on the road in Week 7 and the ’over’ (48 ½) connected with a big fourth quarter surge (27 points). Bettors are starting at a total of 53 for the rematch and while that number seems inflated, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ based on recent form. Tennessee has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games and it’s averaging 31.7 PPG during this span. Indianapolis has allowed 28.4 PPG this season, which is ranked 29th in the league. The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the season and they’ve also leaned heavily to high side in their last 10 games off the bye (7-3). Including the first meeting this season, the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the last five between the pair. Lastly, every AFC South divisional matchup (6-0) has gone ‘over’ this season.


                        Pittsburgh at Cleveland: This series has watched the ‘under’ cash in three straight and eight of the last 10 meetings. Despite being for offensive fireworks, Pittsburgh has watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 this season and that includes a 3-1 mark on the road. Cleveland has watched the ‘under’ cash the last two weeks, largely due to its offensive struggles. The Browns weak defense (419 YPG) makes you believe Pittsburgh can put up a crooked number and you can certainly argue that the Cleveland offense can overachieve against a weak Steelers defense (380 YPG). However, some bettors have already bet into the ‘under’ and knocked the total from 49 ½ down to 45 as of Friday evening. Why? The latest weather reports are predicting a 40% chance of snow showers and wind gusts up 30 MPH, the latter being the bigger factor.


                        Headed West


                        Week 11 will featured three East Coast clubs playing in the Pacific Time Zone on Sunday. Including last week’s outcome between the Dolphins and Chargers, the ‘over’ has gone 6-4 in these matchups. Three of the ‘under’ winners came from Arizona, who is a perfect 6-0 to the ‘under’ at home this season.


                        Coincidentally, all three of these totals have been knocked down and two of them due to possible poor weather, which was talked about in-depth in the weekly Vegas Money Moves piece.


                        Miami at Los Angeles: The Dolphins stayed on the West Coast this week as they look to pull off the California sweep after defeating San Diego last Sunday. The Rams defense (327 YPG) is a big step up in class for Miami, who could have two starters out on the offensive line. Los Angeles has the worst scoring offense (15.4 PPG) in the league and it would be surprising if rookie QB Jared Goff can improve on that number in his first NFL start.


                        New England at San Francisco: Even though rain is expected in the forecast for this matchup, can San Francisco really slow down New England? The Patriots were held to 24 last week but they’re still averaging 32 PPG since QB Tom Brady returned. San Francisco’s defense had it second-best performance of the season last week and still allowed 23 in a loss at Arizona. Knowing the Patriots visit the Jets next week and they’re coming off a tough loss to Seattle, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get in and get out of this game healthy. Also, New England won’t have offensive weapons TE Rob Gronkowski or WR Chris Hogan available for Sunday.


                        Philadelphia at Seattle: This total has dropped from 46 to 43 due to the aforementioned weather reports. The ‘Hawks have put up 31 points in each of their last two games and the offense has played better at home. Philadelphia’s defense has been great at home (9.5 PPG) but very shaky on the road (24.4 PPG). Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 at CenturyLink Field and the Eagles have gone 4-0-1 to the ‘over’ as visitors.


                        Under the Lights


                        The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and of the three nights, Monday continues to be the best lean for the low side with a 7-3-1 record. Including this past Thursday’s result between Carolina and New Orleans, the ‘under’ as gone 17-14-1 this season.


                        Green Bay at Washington: This total is hovering between 49 and 50 points at most books and all signs on paper point to the high side. The Redskins have seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 overall and that includes a 5-0 mark at FedEx Field. Green Bay enters this game on a 3-0 ‘over’ run and its surrendered 33, 31 and 47 points during this span. The Packers beat the Redskins 35-18 in the first round of the playoffs last year at D.C. and the ‘over’ (47 ½) was never in doubt. If you’re looking for an ‘under’ angle, the Green Bay defense is expected to be healthier this week and the Packers have seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their first two games versus NFC East foes this season.


                        Houston vs. Oakland (from Mexico City): Based on the total (46) and the tendencies we’ve seen from Houston, the number tells me that this game will play to the tempo of the Texans. Houston scored a season-high on the road last week when it beat Jacksonville 24-21 but seven of those points came from the defense. So with that effort, the offense has only scored 39 points in four games outside of Houston this season. We can’t dismiss the fact that Oakland has been a great ‘over’ team (7-2) based on a solid offense and weak defense. However, I believe the venue will play a factor and the high altitude (7,350 ft) could have both teams gassed in the second-half. For what it’s worth, Houston scored nine points at Mile High (Denver - 5,280 ft) in Week 7 and Oakland put up 15 and 14 in its last two trips to Colorado.


                        Fearless Predictions


                        I caught some luck last week as the Denver team total slid ‘over’ with a two-point conversion from its defense. That win made up for the dismal performance by Arizona in the second-half. After the dust settled, we turned a small profit ($190) and cut into the overall bankroll ($50). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


                        Best Over: Tennessee-Indianapolis 52 ½


                        Best Under: Baltimore-Dallas 45


                        Best Team Total: Under Detroit 26 ½


                        Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
                        Under 53 ½ Baltimore-Dallas
                        Under 55 Houston-Oakland
                        Over 33 ½ Philadelphia-Seattle

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

                          NFL Underdogs: Week 11 pointspread picks and predictions
                          By ANDREW CALEY


                          I turned 30 this week.


                          I suppose that means I should start to realize that my dream of making the NBA as the second coming of Steve Nash is finally dead.


                          Seriously though, turning 30 years old didn’t really bother me the way I had seen it affect others. Maybe that has something to with the fact I was thrown a killer surprise party by my girlfriend, complete with oyster shucking and martini bar.


                          Or maybe, it’s because I got a great birthday present from the gambling gods, with my underdog picks going 3-0 SU and ATS on my big Three-Ohhh.


                          Considering dogs went 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS last week, I would have felt pretty terrible if I couldn’t nail down at least three of them. So, kind of like a surprise party you had a feeling was coming, while not completely unexpected, the results are more than welcome.


                          Not as surprising, is how bad the AFC South has been this season.


                          The Tennessee Titans, at 5-5, are still in contention for the division title and sit in second place behind the 6-3 Houston Texans. They face a critical road game at 4-5 Indianapolis, one the Titans need to win if they want to keep pace.


                          Tennessee has won four of its last six games thanks to two things: running the football and the meteoric rise of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota.


                          While it should be noted one of those losses was a 34-26 defeat as 4-point home favorites at the hands of the Colts, Mariota has been tremendous during that six-game stretch. He's completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, to go along with a crazy good 122.1 passer rating.


                          Meanwhile, DeMarco Murray is enjoying Music City, giving the Titans the league’s third-best rush offense at 145.2 yards per game. He should continue to roll this week, matching up against a Colts rush defense that gives up 114.9 yards per game.


                          Let’s not forget the Titans rank fifth in the NFL in sacks with 26 and go against a brutal Colts offense line that has left Andrew Luck battered, allowing a NFL worst 33 sacks this season.


                          I think the Titans continue to surprise this week. Try to look shocked when they cover.


                          Pick: Titans +3


                          Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings


                          These teams are mirror images of each other and not in a good way. Both were considered NFC contenders, have top-ranked defenses, and are currently struggling.


                          After starting the season a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS, the Vikings have dropped four in a row both SU and ATS, scoring just 14 points per game in the process.


                          They rank dead last in total offense and rushing yards, which seems insane when we are talking about the Vikings, but that’s what happens when you lose several offense lineman to injury. Oh, and that Adrian Peterson guy is missed pretty sorely right about now.


                          Meanwhile, although Arizona is coming off a win, it was an uninspiring 23-20 home victory over a San Francisco squad that was a 13.5-point dog and is just 1-1-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in the last three games.


                          So while this appears to be an even matchup in the futility department, I have a little more faith in the Cardinals, mainly because their problems seem fixable.


                          Arizona’s big issue this season has been turnovers. The Cardinals rank seventh in total offense, but 20th in points per game at 22.4. With all other things being equal, the Cardinals have the much better offense and if they can hold on to the ball, they not only cover but win outright.


                          Pick: Cardinals +2.5


                          Green Bay Packers (+3) at Washington


                          Talk about not seeing it coming. The Green Bay Packers' struggles could be the stunner of the season so far.


                          Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like the quarterback we all know, there's been a revolving door of running backs in Green Bay, and the Packers have lost three in row, allowing 37 points per game in that stretch. They're going up against the fourth-ranked offense in the NFL Sunday night. Did I mention they head into Washington, which has revenge on its mind after the Packers knocked the Redskins out of the playoffs last season? No. Well, there's that too.


                          Yet I still like the Packers. Surprise!


                          This is mostly a “can they actually be that bad?” play, plus I think Rodgers wants to show everyone he’s still got it on national television.


                          Pick: Packers +3


                          Last Week: 3-0 ATS
                          Season: 18-11-1 ATS (62%)

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

                            The Muffed Punt: Big NFL home pups putting the 'Under' in underdogs
                            By JASON LOGAN


                            The quality of NFL football isn’t as big a concern to sports bettors as it is to the general public.


                            That’s why we have the pointspread and total. It’s why we’ll sit through shit shows like Tennessee vs. Jacksonville on a Thursday night, when we should be doing something productive, like finally fixing the dryer door, reading to our kids, or finding out what that stink is in the garage.


                            Three times this week, while I was away in Chicago (possibly Ground Zero for poor pigskin), the lack of quality in professional football came up organically in conversations.


                            “I can’t sit through a NFL game anymore,” said one associate from North Carolina. “The NFL is just not exciting this season,” noted another from California. “There are no really ‘great’ teams,” stated a co-worker from New York, not knowing I’m a Cowboys fan (We’re 8-1 dude!).


                            Whether you empathize with those thoughts or not, Week 11 of the schedule is not helping the NFL’s cause.


                            There are currently seven games on the board with spreads of 6.5 points or higher (Oakland is giving six points to Houston Monday), a calculated expectation of how close – or entertaining - these contests will be: Baltimore is getting a touchdown in Dallas, Jacksonville is +6.5 at Detroit, Tampa Bay is +7.5 at Arrowhead, Chicago is +7.5 visiting the Giants, and Philadelphia is +6.5 going up against the 12th Man at CenturyLink.


                            As for the other two teams getting 6.5 or more points, they’re in rare company as their Week 11 matchups are being held at home. The Cleveland Browns are +8 hosting Pittsburgh and the San Francisco 49ers are getting 11.5 points from the Patriots (opened as +14).


                            It’s tempting to jump all over those big home dogs, but you gotta remember they’re getting that many points for a reason – they’re terrible, terrible teams. In fact, home pups of +6.5 or more are just 29-32 ATS since 2013 (14-47 SU), losing by an average score of 26.6-17.5 – more than a 9-point difference.


                            But take that average final score, which adds up to 44.1 points, and size it up against the average betting total in those games (46.24) and you’ll discover that since 2013, games involving a home underdog of 6.5 or more points have gone Under the total 64 percent of the time.


                            Those qualifying contests have produced a 22-39 Over/Under mark, including an amazing 4-16 Over/Under record in the past two years (2015 to 2016), which is a golden 80 percent Under windfall. Those 20 games have seen the average final score plummet to 39.9 points per game versus an average betting total of 46.5, giving Under backers nearly a touchdown of head room (6.6).


                            There have been four home underdogs of +6.5 or more so far this season (Cleveland +7 vs. Dallas, Pittsburgh +7.5 vs. New England, Miami +10 vs. Pittsburgh, Cleveland +10 vs. New England), and each of those games finished below the total.


                            Pittsburgh and Cleveland opened with a total of 49.5 points but that has since been bet down to 44.5. New England and San Francisco opened their Over/Under number at 51.5 and that’s down to 51 points.


                            Is it that bad?


                            Returning to the above comments about the declining quality of football in the 2016 NFL season, if the pointspread is any indication of how close – or exciting – a game is supposed to be, this is shaping up to be the most entertaining NFL season of the last seven years.


                            There have been only 35 games with spreads of 6.5 points or higher as of Week 11, which is 10 less than at this point in the 2015 season when 45 contests towed hefty chalk. There were 50 games in this range in the first 11 weeks of the 2014 season, 51 in 2013, 50 in 2012, a whopping 61 in 2011, and 47 games with spreads of 6.5 or higher in 2010.


                            There is a level of parity among NFL teams that we’ve not seen in a long time, but parity doesn’t always mean quality. Good teams could be getting a little worse, and bad teams could be getting a little better. And what we’re left with is a vanilla mush in which only 10 teams have a winning percentage over .600 – and just three of those call the NFC home.


                            Pound the ground


                            I had some pushback when tweeting out the rushing yards trends we’ve been tracking the last four weeks, the one in which NFL teams that surpass the league average in rushing yards in a game are 70-36-3 ATS in those contest this season (66%). That includes an 8-2 ATS record in Week 10 and a 22-7 ATS count (76%) the last three weeks. Yeah, that one.


                            The main beef that people had was “how are you supposed to know which teams will go over the league average in rushing yards for that game before kickoff?”


                            You don’t. But you can easily handicap each team’s running offense versus their opponent’s run defense, and look at how they’ve fared for/against on the ground in recent games. That should at least point you in the right direction (I can’t be here to hold your hand the whole time folks).


                            I’ve been leaning on this trend with my weekly plays and putting it to the true test in my pick’em league, simply picking which team I think has the best shot at rushing for more than the league mean (which is down to 106.5 rushing yards per game in Week 11). It’s proved profitable, leading me to a 24-16 ATS record since Week 9 – 60 percent – which is a drastic turnaround from my previous eight weeks.


                            This trend continued with Thursday’s game in Carolina, where the Saints lost on the scoreboard 23-20 but covered as 3.5-point road underdogs after rushing for 107 yards – just cracking the NFL season average in ground gains.


                            And again, for you skeptics, this is a long-term trend: from 2011 to 2015, teams that topped the season average in rushing yards in a game were 711-391-34 ATS in those contests, a proven 64.5 percent ATS winner.


                            Biggest move…


                            Miami at Los Angeles. The Dolphins opened as 1-point road underdogs for their second straight game on the left coast, but that line has since jumped to Miami -2 after Rams announced they’re starting rookie QB and No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff in Week 11.


                            “We took some bets on the Dolphins but also adjusted with the market,” says Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology. “The market was moving toward Miami so we moved too.”


                            Sharps like…


                            Minnesota. The Vikings also opened as 1-point underdogs hosting the Cardinals and sharp money has pushed this spread over the fence to Minnesota -2. According to Simbal, the way in which bets are placed with CG Technology books in Las Vegas – either through accounts or over the counter - tells you just who is betting what.


                            “So far, there’s 50 times more money on the Vikings through accounts, which are often the smarter players, and three times more money on the Cardinals over the counter, which is usually public bets,” says Simbal. “This is definitely sharping up to be a ‘Joes versus Pros’ game.”


                            Biggest sweat…


                            Pittsburgh at Cleveland. With both sharp money and public bets coming in on the Steelers, Simbal says the book is going to need the Browns Sunday – a statement you never want to utter in this business.


                            “We’re not in a great spot here,” he says. “We had some respected customers lay the -7.5 and the -8.5 and we know the public is going to be all over the Steelers.”


                            Banker game…


                            Philadelphia at Seattle. Usually, the Sunday nighter or the Patriots find themselves as the deciding game of the week for bookies, but with two-way action on Packers-Redskins and Rob Gronkowski’s absence actually drawing bets against New England, Eagles at Seahawks is the most important game on the board.


                            With a good chunk of parlays and teasers tied to the Seahawks at home, books will be keeping a close eye on this matchup. “We’ll need Philly,” says Simbal.


                            Injury to watch


                            Telvin Smith, LB Jacksonville Jaguars


                            Smith’s status for Week 11’s road game in Detroit (+6.5) is up in the air, but not due to injury. Rather, the Jaguars linebacker has been through some massive highs and lows – all of which were bigger than football - in the past week.


                            Smith, who’s a defensive captain and Jacksonville’s second leading tackler, lost his brother to a shooting in Georgia Sunday and then welcomed the birth of his son Wednesday. He was away from the team all week before reporting Friday and football fans will want to confirm his status as kickoff draws near.


                            “Is the plan having him play on Sunday?" Jacksonville head coach Gus Bradley told reporters. "Well, he’s probable so we anticipate him, but I do know tomorrow is going to be very emotional and you do want to make sure that a player’s got the right mindset playing in the game.”


                            Smith has been a part of 97.6 percent of the Jags’ defensive snaps this season, has 10 tackles for a loss, and has broken up four passes. He has had at least five tackles in 29 straight games, including leading the team with six in last week’s loss to Houston.


                            We know how to pick’em


                            Despite plenty of big chalk on the board for Week 11, there are some lines out there tighter than an offensive lineman and skinny jeans. The Dolphins stayed on the West Coast after beating San Diego last week, opting not to travel across the country three times before playing Los Angeles Sunday. This spread opened Rams -1, but with Goff getting the nod under center for L.A., that line has jumped the fence to Fins -2.


                            If you’re also jumping back and forth – or sitting on that same fence – take off your handicapping hat and just go with what team you think has the hotter cheerleaders.


                            Sunday’s menu


                            I’ve been away most of the week, eating restaurant food and suffering the intestinal consequences because of it. A home cooked meal on a cozy NFL Sunday is just what the doctor ordered. That instantly triggers the smell of a slow-cooked pot roast. It’s like putting on a warm and fuzzy sweater… made of meat.


                            Easy (money) like Sunday morning


                            Last week, we left our fate in the hands of the gambling gods and flipped a coin on the Chicago-Tampa Bay game (which was chosen at random). The gods were good. The coin came up Tails, and the Bucs blasted the Bears 36-10 as 2.5-point home underdogs.


                            That has me up to 3-7 with my weekly pick – but more important, the coin is hitting 100 percent on the season. Can’t argue with results, so once again we ask: heads or tails?


                            OK, let’s pick a game at random (eyes closed and scrolling our matchup page). Chicago at New York it is!


                            Heads: Bears. Tails: Giants.


                            And the flip (courtesy of a 2001 Kentucky State quarter) is… HEADS! Oh shit.


                            Pick: Bears +7.5

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                            • #15
                              Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

                              Essential Week 11 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


                              It's already Week 11 of the NFL season and with division races now factoring into games it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the Sunday schedule.


                              Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (7.5, 44.5)


                              * A date with Cleveland couldn't come at a better time for reeling Pittsburgh, which also has lost three in a row on the road and plays four of its next five away from home. While Ben Roethlisberger and the offense managed to get untracked in last week's 35-30 home loss, the defense permitted the Cowboys to put together a pair of late 75-yard touchdown drives. Frustrated by his team's inability to stop the opposition, coach Mike Tomlin is taking what appears to be a desperate measure by moving veteran linebacker James Harrison into the starting lineup. Harrison was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in 2008, but he's now 38 years old, already has come out of retirement once and has made only 19 tackles on the season.


                              * For a team that has featured an NFL-high 26 different starting quarterbacks since 1999, it hardly comes as a surprise that first-year coach Hue Jackson has had a revolving door under center. Jackson made a surprise move last week, pulling rookie Cody Kessler in the third quarter in favor of veteran Josh McCown with the Browns trailing by six points, but he is turning back to third-round pick Kessler to face Pittsburgh. "I came here ... to solve this quarterback issue that's been here," Jackson told reporters Thursday. "Is the guy on our roster now? We're going to find that out." Jackson also needs to solve major issues on his defense, which is yielding 30.1 points and 419.1 yards -- ranking 31st in each category.


                              LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 9-point road favorites and that number has dropped to 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 and as of Saturday morning has been bet down 5 points to 44.5.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
                              * Under is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 road games.
                              * Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
                              * Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
                              * Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.


                              Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)


                              * Baltimore's top-ranked run defense will take aim at rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas' offensive line after holding the Steelers (36 yards on 18 carries) and Browns (33 on 13) to 2.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Joe Flacco is taking more chances down the field under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt in the last two games while throwing four touchdown passes. Receiver Breshad Perriman helped in the deep passing game by recording 64 yards on three catches, including a 27-yard TD, against Cleveland.


                              * Elliott leads the NFL with 1,005 rushing yards and piled up 114 and two TDs on the ground while adding 95 receiving yards and another score in last week's win. The Ohio State product already went up against three of the top 11 run defenses in the league (Green Bay, New York Giants and Chicago) and totaled 348 rushing yards in those contests. Prescott is playing mistake-free football with 14 TD passes and two interceptions but is not being overly conservative while averaging 8.35 yards per attempt.


                              LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the game between divisional leaders as 7-point home favorites and the total at 45. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither number has moved all week.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
                              * Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
                              * Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 games following a ATS win.
                              * Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.


                              Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47.5)


                              * T.J.Yeldon leads the rushing game with a paltry 285 yards on 79 carries and has combined with newcomer Chris Ivory for just two rushing scores on the season. Bortles, who broke franchise records with over 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, threw a pick-six on the opening drive of the Jags' 24-21 loss to Houston last week, the third time this season he's thrown an interception on Jacksonville's first possession. Look for defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who has become a clear favorite in the race for defensive rookie of the year while shutting down a litany of star receivers throughout his first season, to shadow Detroit's Marvin Jones.


                              * Stafford, completing 67.3 percent of his passes on the season, continues to be one of the league's best at directing come-from-behind wins -- all five of Detroit's victories have been the result of game-deciding drives by Stafford. Since 2011, Stafford has 23 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and he reportedly is looking to parlay that success into a $25 million deal at year's end. The Lions have been fairly stingy on defense, allowing 22.9 points a game, (14th in league). Top linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has battled several leg injuries, was back at practice but he is still listed as doubtful to make his first return since Week 1.


                              LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites and were briefly faded down to 6 mid-week before rising back to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and has inched up half point late in the week to 47.5.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
                              * Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
                              * Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
                              * Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
                              * Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


                              Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 52.5)


                              * The maturation of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota - who has benefited from the addition of running back DeMarco Murray -has been the story for Tennessee’s flourishing offense. Mariota has passed for 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and he and Murray head the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. The Titans have struggled to stop the pass recently, allowing 300 or more yards through the air in four of the last five games - including a season-high 341 in a 34-26 loss to the Colts in Week 7.


                              * Indianapolis has reasonable balance on offense, with running back Frank Gore putting together a decent season and Andrew Luck throwing far fewer interceptions than a year ago. The Colts have had difficulty keeping Luck upright, however, as he has been sacked 33 times - a concern against a Titans team with 28 sacks to its credit. Indianapolis’ downfall has been its defense, which ranks 31st against the pass and 22nd versus the run while forcing only eight turnovers - fifth-fewest in the league.


                              LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened the week as 3-point home favorites against their divisional rival and that number held before fading half point to 2.5 Friday afternoon. The total opened at 53 and quickly dropped to 52 Sunday evening and held most of the week before returning to 53 Friday.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
                              * Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
                              * Over is 7-0-1 in Titans last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
                              * Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
                              * Titans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings.


                              Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)


                              * Tyrod Taylor leads all NFL quarterbacks with 362 yards on the ground and is the only signal-caller with at least 4,500 yards passing (4,804) and 900 rushing (930) since the start of 2015. Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander is tied for the league lead with 10 sacks while wide receiver Marquise Goodwin ranks fifth with an average of 18.8 yards per catch. The Bills are 16-11 in games following their bye week, but Rex Ryan is just 2-6 in such contests during his career as a head coach.


                              * Linebacker Rey Maualuga (fibula) also was a full participant in practice on Thursday after missing Monday's loss to the New York Giants. A run specialist, he would be a welcome addition to the lineup on Sunday as Buffalo ranks second in the league in rushing offense (155 yards). Jeremy Hill has scored three touchdowns on the ground in as many games and ranks second in the league since 2014 with 26 rushing scores.


                              LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened up as 3-point home favorites and that was quickly bet down half point to 2.5 and that number has held firm since Monday. The total opened at 47 and remained there all week.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
                              * Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
                              * Bengals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
                              * Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
                              * Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.


                              Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)


                              * Tampa Bay scored a season-high 36 points against the Bears thanks to four takeaways – a common theme in the team’s success. The Buccaneers have forced 11 turnovers in their four wins and just four in their five defeats. The running game has been practically non-existent in the last two games, and quarterback Jameis Winston could use some help on the ground against a tough pass rush and secondary.


                              * The Chiefs’ offense has foundered over the last two weeks, but the defense has made up for it by continuing to force turnovers as an impressive rate. Kansas City leads the league with 22 takeaways, including at least two in each of its five straight wins. Smith rarely puts up flashy numbers, but he continues to get the job done as he has recorded eight touchdown passes against three interceptions, while Spencer Ware has been effective both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.


                              LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has remained all week. The total opened at 44.5 and like the spread remains fine the bettors and hasn’t moved all week.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
                              * Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
                              * Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
                              * Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.


                              Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40)


                              * David Johnson was limited to 55 yards on 19 carries last week but gained 46 on five receptions to become the first player since Indianapolis' Edgerrin James in 2005 to record 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his team's first nine games. The product of Northern Iowa ranks second in the league with 1,213 scrimmage yards and is one of three players in NFL history (Gale Sayers and Abner Haynes) to record 15 rushing touchdowns, five receiving scores and a kickoff-return TD in his first two seasons. Carson Palmer, who has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three straight contests, has thrown for seven touchdowns with just one interception in four career games against Minnesota.


                              * Sam Bradford has excelled at home this season, throwing six touchdown passes without an interception while posting a 111.3 rating in four games. The Vikings changed kickers this week, releasing Blair Walsh and signing Kai Forbath, who split last season between Washington and New Orleans. Stefon Diggs had 13 receptions for 164 yards against the Redskins after making 13 catches for 80 yards versus Detroit in Week 9, becoming the first player in NFL history with at least 13 catches in consecutive games.


                              LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites at home. The total opened at 41.5 and has been faded all the way to 40.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
                              * Under is 12-3-1 in Cardinals last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
                              * Under is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games following a ATS loss.
                              * Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
                              * Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


                              Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7.5, 43)


                              * Chicago's difficult season got even worse this week after wideout Alshon Jeffery was suspended four games for performance-enhancing drugs, with Cutler likely turning to tight end Zach Miller (team-leading 44 receptions) as the focus of the passing game. Jordan Howard recorded his fourth 100-yard rushing performance on Sunday, one shy of the franchise record for a rookie (Beattie Feathers in 1934, Rashaan Salaam in 1995). Linebacker Pernell McPhee promised to get Manning dirty as the Bears are eighth in the league with sacks (24) while the Giants' quarterback has only been dropped 12 times in 350 passing attempts. "I don't care what everybody else did. We (are) gonna sack him. ... I'm gonna make sure of that," McPhee said.


                              * The dust barely settled after New York eked out a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati on Monday when Beckham boasted greater heights for his ascending team. "We're really looking forward to Feb. 5 in Houston,” said Beckham, who has been feeling good with six touchdowns in his last five games after being held out of the end zone in his previous four. "That's the goal, obviously. I probably said that the past two or three years since I’ve been in the league. I feel real confident in this team." Veteran Rashad Jennings ran for 87 of his team's 122 yards to help New York's 31st-ranked rushing attack get untracked on Monday, but Chicago's defense (11th-ranked) should provide a tougher test.


                              LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 7.5-point home favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been inching down all week to the current number of 43.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
                              * Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
                              * Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a straight up loss.
                              * Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
                              * Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.


                              Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (2, 39.5)


                              * Much-maligned quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not recorded a single turnover during Miami's winning streak after committing nine (seven interceptions, two fumbles) in the first five games. "I think that's the biggest thing for us right (now), is taking care of the football (and) not giving the other team opportunities with good field position and keeping ourselves in the right spot," Tannehill said of the Dolphins, who are plus-8 in turnovers during the winning streak. Tailback Jay Ajayi has rushed for 608 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch, but saw his string of 100-yard performances stopped at three after being limited to just 79 versus San Diego.


                              * One man's opportunity led to another's misery as Keenam approached the podium on Wednesday with a frown and told reporters he "wasn't happy" with coach Jeff Fisher's decision. With the team's passing game stuck in neutral, running back Todd Gurley has faced stacked boxes and is mustering a disappointing 3.1 yards per carry. The second-year back failed to reach the end zone for the seventh time in nine games during Los Angeles' 9-6 victory over the Jets on Sunday and faces a Miami team that has limited New York and San Diego to 100 yards on 33 carries over the last six quarters.


                              LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, quickly to the Rams as 1-point home favorite and bettors quickly jumped all over the road team bumping that line to Dolphins +2. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down a full point to 39.5.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
                              * Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
                              * Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
                              * Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.


                              New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (11, 51)


                              * Even if Gronkowski is able to play, which appears increasingly unlikely, Brady still has the luxury of throwing to backup tight end Martellus Bennett, who made seven catches for 102 yards against Seattle. “Look, I’ve started the majority of my career," Bennett, who has three 100-yard performances this season, told reporters. "Starting in a football game is just football. It doesn’t matter how I play or when I play. It’s just the same thing.” New England also will feature a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 69 yards and three touchdowns while having over 20 carries for the fifth time this season. The Patriots yield 18.1 points per game despite ranking in the bottom-third in sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions.


                              * San Francisco showed some moxie in ending a string of four straight blowouts by erasing an early 14-point deficit and clawing back from 10 down in the second half against Arizona. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for six touchdowns in the first five games, returned to the lineup after missing two contests with a shoulder injury but was limited to 14 yards on 13 carries. Colin Kaepernick has rushed for as least 55 yards in three of his four outings since replacing Blaine Gabbert as the starter, but he could be without deep threat Torrey Smith (shoulder), who was limited in practice Thursday. The 49ers rank last in the NFL in total yards (429.7) and rushing yards (180.4) allowed.


                              LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as massive 13.5-point road favorites and the line has steadily been fading to the current number of 11. The total opened at 51.5 and dropped as low as 50.5 before settling at 51.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
                              * 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
                              * Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games.
                              * Under is 8-1 in 49ers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


                              Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 42.5)


                              * The Philadelphia backfield is a confusing one to label, yet both veteran Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews are making their mark in distinctly different ways. Sproles remains a threat in the passing game with eight receptions last week and Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and scored twice to increase his touchdown total to four in his last three contests. Jordan Matthews, who is nursing back spasms, has been the lone consistent Eagles wideout with 23 catches for 216 yards in his last three games.


                              * With Thomas Rawls (fibula) expected to return on Sunday and rookie C.J. Prosise turning heads by recording a career-high 153 yards from scrimmage (66 rushing, 87 receiving) versus the Patriots, Seattle opted to end Christine Michael's second stint with the club by waiving him this week. Prosise's dominating performance notwithstanding, the Seahawks are expected to ease back Rawls into the system despite the team being on pace for a franchise low for yards in a 16-game season. "We've got to get him back first. Let's get him back, get him going, make sure he's ready to roll and all that, and we'll figure that out," coach Pete Carroll said. "If he makes it through the week, he's going to play considerably because he’s in great shape and he's ready to do that. But we're not going to overplay him or try to take it too far too soon."


                              LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Seattle as 6-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 6.5 and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been fading all week to the current number of 43.


                              TRENDS:


                              * Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
                              * Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
                              * Over is 11-2 in Eagles last 13 vs. NFC.
                              * Over is 8-2 in Seahawks last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
                              * Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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