NFL Betting Info 11/20

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

Expert NFL Picks: Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings Odds and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews


It's always helpful when the lead item in a story writes itself, and that was the case this week when the Minnesota Vikings released kicker Blair Walsh, something that was overdue.


It's 100 percent fitting Walsh was cut loose this week because the Vikings are hosting the Arizona Cardinals in an important NFC game Sunday. You see, if Walsh makes a chip-shot 27-yard field goal in the final seconds of last season's wild-card game against Seattle, the third-seeded Vikings advance to a divisional-round game at No. 2 Arizona. Except Walsh didn't and the Vikings lost 10-9. To be fair, it was brutally cold that day as the Vikings were playing outdoors at the University of Minnesota. But that's no excuse for missing that kick. As it was, the No. 5 Packers (after a win at Washington) would play the Cardinals in the divisional round and the No. 6 Seahawks went to No. 1 Carolina.


Kudos to the Vikings for standing by Walsh -- a Pro Bowler in 2012 as a rookie when he was 10-for-10 on kicks from at least 50 yards, and who got a four-year, $13 million extension in July 2015 -- after that devastating loss, and you have to respect loyalty. But two Sundays ago in a home game the Vikings never should have lost in overtime to the Lions, Walsh missed an extra point and had a 46-yard field goal blocked. In last week's loss to the Redskins, Walsh missed another PAT, his league-leading fourth such miss this year. So the Vikings released Walsh on Tuesday after holding tryouts for a handful of kickers last week. They signed Kai Forbath, among those kickers worked out last week, on Wednesday. Forbath kicked for the Redskins from 2012 to 2015 and also spent part of the 2015 season with the Saints.


Cardinals at Vikings Betting Story Lines


Both clubs were division winners last year, and it's still possible they could each repeat. Minnesota (5-4) is tied with Detroit atop the NFC North with the Packers a game back. The Vikings are definitely trending the wrong way as they entered a Week 6 bye as the NFL's only unbeaten team left and haven't added to that No. 5 in the W column since. Certainly it's not all Walsh's fault as he really only cost the team the Detroit game. This past Sunday, the Vikings lost 26-20 in Washington despite leading 20-14 at halftime.


Sam Bradford was fine vs. Washington, throwing for 307 yards, two TDs and a pick. Stefon Diggs caught 13 passes for 164 yards to become the first player in league history with back-to-back 13-catch games. But yet again the running game did nothing. Minnesota had 47 yards on 21 carries. The Vikings have been stopped on five of their 13 attempts to pick up a yard on third or fourth down in their four-game losing streak because of no push in the ground game. That's basically a turnover. To make matter worse, a struggling Vikings offensive line has lost Jake Long to injured reserve.


Arizona (4-4-1) is two games behind the Seahawks in the NFC West, and the teams are essentially deadlocked in the tiebreaker because they tied one another and each has one division loss. The Cardinals visit Seattle on Christmas Eve. Only two of the Cards' final seven are at home, so I doubt they win the division. They are currently ninth in the NFC standings but just a loss behind No. 6 Washington.


Frankly, I don't think this Arizona club is all that good. The wins are against Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and two against the 49ers -- none of those are teams have winning records. Last week, Arizona escaped the Niners in the desert, 23-20. Chandler Catanzaro kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired; he might also have been released had he missed because Catanzaro missed potential winners early this season vs. the Patriots and Seahawks. Carson Palmer threw for 376 yards vs. the Niners, his third straight 300-yard game, but he had just one TD and two picks. He's not playing close to last year's level. Arizona running back David Johnson had 101 scrimmage yards and two TDs vs. San Francisco. He became one of three players in NFL history (Gale Sayers and Abner Hayes) to have at least 15 rushing touchdowns, five receiving touchdowns and a kickoff-return touchdown in a player's first two seasons.


From an injury perspective, Cards defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, one of the best overall defensive players in the NFL, is expected to play this week. The Honey Badger hasn't since suffering a shoulder subluxation against the Panthers on Oct. 30. Receiver Larry Fitzgerald had an MRI after Sunday's game but also should go. The Vikings are Fitz's hometown team.


Cardinals at Vikings Betting Odds and Trends


This game is a pick'em with a total of 40.5. Thus no moneyline. On the alternate lines, the Vikings are -1 (-103) and Cardinals -1 (-103). Arizona is 4-4-1 against the spread (1-2 on road) and 3-6 "over/under" (3-0 on road). Minnesota is 5-4 ATS (3-1 at home) and 3-6 O/U (1-3 at home).


The Cards are 2-5 ATS in their past seven after an ATS loss. They are 1-5 ATS in their past six after a win and the same record in the previous six against teams with a winning record. The Vikings are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 after rushing for less than 90 yards in their previous game. They are 0-4 ATS in their past four vs. the NFC. The under is 10-4 in Arizona's past 14 vs. the NFC. The under is 9-1 in Minnesota's past 10 after an ATS loss. It's 8-2 in the Vikes' past 10 following a SU loss. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.


Cardinals at Vikings Betting Prediction


These teams did play Week 14 in the desert last year and Arizona won 23-20 as a 10-point favorite. Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater made a huge mistake as the clock was winding down and with Minnesota already in field-goal range as he was strip-sacked with five seconds left and it was recovered by Arizona. The Vikes were trying to get a bit closer than the Arizona 31, but Bridgewater has to throw that ball away.


I certainly lean the Arizona offense over Minnesota's in this game, but the Vikings' defense is also the better unit even though cornerback Xavier Rhodes and linebacker Eric Kendricks are in question after both were hurt last week. Maybe it will come down to a Forbath field goal. Take the home side and under the small total.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

NFL Odds: Week 11 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews


It's weeks like this why my editor at Doc's added this Friday NFL news update story on top of the Opening Line Report I write on Mondays. Not sure if you have heard, but the NFL is a contact sport and there tend to be injuries. Sometimes we don't hear about major ones until Tuesday because players have Mondays off. And obviously injuries can occur in practice.


Of course, head coaches also can decide to bench or promote guys (or fire or promote coaches) after having a bit more time to stew over what happened on Sunday. That's what happened with Rams coach Jeff Fisher. On Monday, I wrote that Fisher planed to stick with Case Keenum as his quarterback even though Keenum had been terrible this season other than perhaps two games. Fisher had said he wanted to keep No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff on the bench until the Rams were eliminated from the playoffs. The coach didn't want to lose the locker room.


But Fisher came to his senses and has announced Goff will make his NFL debut on Sunday at home against the Dolphins -- Goff's first game was always going to be in front of a friendly (i.e. quiet while Rams offense has the ball) home crowd. The Rams did end a four-game losing streak last Sunday at the Jets, but that 9-6 win was in spite of Keenum rather than because of him. Is Goff any good? I have no idea. Sure, he looked great at Cal, but plenty of quarterbacks star in those Air Raid college offenses and stink in the pros. For example, Keenum played in a similar system at the University of Houston and was one of the statistically greatest NCAA players ever.


Goff looked a bit overmatched during the preseason, which many of us saw on "Hard Knocks." He completed just 22 of 49 passes for 232 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. His main problem was hanging on to the ball too long and getting sacked or hit instead of just throwing it away. So typical rookie stuff. Dolphins-Rams was a pick'em on Monday with a total of 40.5, but now it's Miami -2 with a total of 39.5. The Fins have one of the NFL's better defensive lines, but I expect the Rams to be very conservative in their play-calling, especially early in the game. Think two Todd Gurley runs and a short, high-percentage pass being an average first-half series.


The Rams are the first team since the 1997 Bills to win two games in which they scored fewer than 10 points. Sportsbooks offer a prop this week asking if the Rams win another game this season without scoring a touchdown: "no" is -5000 and "yes" +1000. Obviously that's highly doubtful, but the Rams' Week 16 home game vs. the 49ers is a possibility.


Here are some line moves or potential game-changing injury notes for Week 11.


Patriots at 49ers (+13, 51): Line has dropped a half-point as has the total. I touched on this Monday as well, but a Rob Gronkowski injury update happened after Monday's posting. There were initial reports he punctured a lung on a big hit from Seattle's Earl Thomas on Sunday night. If you watched the game, you know the exact play. Gronk looked shaken up but did return. The Pats are being rather vague about things, but Gronk had to skip an EA Sports event Tuesday because he couldn't fly and that sounds like a punctured lung to me. I would be surprised if Gronk, who hasn't practiced, makes the trip. The Pats don't need him for this one. They do next week at the Jets.


Packers at Redskins (-3, 50): Line has jumped a half-point. Bovada offers a prop on the future of Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy. That he will be the team's head coach Week 1 of next season is -300 and no +200. Aaron Rodgers has seemed to be pointing some fingers at the coaching staff during the Pack's three-game losing streak. But then this week, Rodgers said any criticism of his head coach is "ridiculous." Still, there's no doubting the Pack underachieved last year a bit and much more so this season. I think I'd take no on that prop. McCarthy wouldn't be out of a job for long. Two of Rodgers' offensive linemen are in question here: left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee) and right guard T.J. Lang (ankle) couldn't finish last Sunday's game. It's still not clear if Pro Bowl linebacker Clay Matthews will finally return from his hamstring injury. His defense badly misses him. Washington is hoping WR DeSean Jackson can return after missing last week because of a rotator cuff injury in his left shoulder. These teams met in last year's wild-card round, with the Packers winning 35-18 on the road. In his past two against the Redskins, Rodgers has completed 55 of 78 passes for 690 yards with six touchdowns and no picks for a 123.3 passer rating.


Ravens at Cowboys (-7, 45): One of the games of the day and featuring division leaders. Your new NFL MVP betting favorite at Bovada? That would be Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott at +250. He has overtaken Tom Brady (+275). Elliott is also the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite at -500, with teammate Dak Prescott at +275 (+1000 for MVP). Prescott has won eight consecutive starts, tied for the second-longest winning streak by a rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger holds the mark of 13 in 2004 when he led the Steelers to the AFC title game. Meanwhile, Baltimore receiver Steve Smith needs three catches to become the 14th player with 1,000 career. Former Steeler Hines Ward retired right on 1,000. Baltimore will get a key defender back in outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil. He has played only two games this season.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

Monday Night Football Predictions: Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders Odds & Picks
by Alan Matthews


Let's not get into an election argument here, and it doesn't matter to me whether you voted for Trump or Hillary. But I think even the most ardent Trump backers had to be a bit taken aback by some of the things he has said about Mexicans. Whether he actually deports all those illegal immigrants and builds a wall we will have to see.


I'm quite sure that back when the NFL announced it was playing this Monday night's game at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City that the things Trump said weren't even a second thought. But I do think it will be interesting to see what happens Monday before the Texans-Raiders game regarding the American National Anthem.


Here's hoping that nothing detracts from what could be a very important game and matches division leaders. Why pick these two teams for the league's first game south of the border since Oct. 2, 2005, and first-ever international Monday night game? The Raiders are a popular team in Mexico because of their colors, nickname and outlaw image. I do wonder whether Oakland officials now regret giving up a home game with the team a Super Bowl contender. And the Texans are a natural with the proximity to Mexico.


Texans at Raiders Betting Story Lines


Houston (6-3) entered Week 11 up two games in the loss column on Tennessee and Indianapolis in the AFC South, and those two teams play each other on Sunday. The Texans already own one win over both but still have to visit Indy and Nashville.


This past Sunday, the Texans got their first road win of the year, but barely: 24-21 at Jacksonville. Brock Osweiler has been largely a $72 million bust and has been the NFL's worst road quarterback. He wasn't much better in that game in throwing for just 99 yards on 27 attempts. How is that even possible? On the bright side, he did have two TD throws and didn't turn it over. But this team is going nowhere if Osweiler doesn't improve his NFL-worst 5.61 yards per attempt. The Texans have play-making weapons in running back Lamar Miller and receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, although Fuller has really tailed off after a quick start and missed the Jacksonville game injured. The rookie should play this week as should nose tackle Vince Wilfork and cornerback A.J. Bouye, who both missed the Jags game.


The Raiders (7-2) come off their bye on a three-game winning streak and are tied for the AFC's best record -- yet if the postseason started right now would be a wild-card team. That's because Kansas City is also 7-2 and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. Those two play again Week 14 on a Thursday in K.C. The Broncos are just a half-game back of the Chiefs and Raiders but have played one more game. Frankly, both the Chiefs and Broncos were incredibly lucky to win Week 10. The AFC West has three seven-win teams through Week 10. That hasn't happened in any division since 1999. (AFC East and the Patriots weren't one of them!)


With the first pick of the 2014 draft, the Texans took South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. At the time, that was fine because he was the No. 1 overall prospect and dominant in college. What I have an issue with was Houston taking UCLA guard Xavier Su'a-Filo with the first pick of the second round when that franchise badly needed a quarterback. Just three picks later, the Raiders took Derek Carr out of Fresno State, and he's a rising superstar and MVP candidate. Carr has 17 touchdowns and three interceptions this season and his 5.67 TD/INT ratio is the best mark in the league among players with at least 15 touchdown passes. Houston ranks No. 3 in the NFL against the pass.


The Raiders have a Super Bowl-caliber offense, although I'm not totally sold on running back Latavius Murray. There are two good rookies to complement him in Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. The defense started terribly but has been better of late, particularly Khalil Mack. In the four games before the bye, Mack ranked third in the NFL with six sacks, including two multi-sack performances. Stopping him will be job No. 1 for that so-so Houston offensive line. Osweiler has been sacked 17 times.


Texans at Raiders Betting Odds and Trends


Oakland is a 6-point favorite (-110) with a total of 46. On the moneyline, the Raiders are -245 and Texans +205. On the alternate lines, the Raiders are -6.5 (-103) and -5.5 (-117). Houston is 5-3-1 against the spread (1-3 on road) and 4-5 "over/under" (2-2 on road). I'm going to give Oakland's road numbers too: the Raiders are 6-3 ATS (5-0 on road) and 7-2 O/U (4-1 on road).


Houston is 2-5 ATS in its past seven vs. teams with a winning record. It is 1-8 ATS in its past nine on Monday. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their past four after a bye. They are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 vs. the AFC. The under is 6-2 in Houston's past eight after a win. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's past six.


Texans at Raiders Betting Prediction


Houston is 6-3 all-time in this series and won the most recent matchup, 30-14 in Week 2 of the 2014 season in Oakland. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the Texans' starting QB that day. J.J. Watt caught a TD pass and Arian Foster ran for 138 yards and a score. Fitzpatrick is now with the Jets, Watt is out for the season and Foster has retired. Carr threw for 263 yards, a TD and two picks. Oakland turned it over four times.


Maybe Osweiler just stinks in the United States and will find his game out of it. Yeah, probably not. Raiders are healthier and well-rested and have played better away from home. Give the six and go under.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall


Sunday, Nov. 20


TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Indy won again vs. Titans on Oct. 23, that’s now 10 SU wins in a row (7-2-1 vs. line) in series for Colts. Indy “over” 8-2 last 10 since late LY, Tenn. also “over” 11-2 last 13 since late 2015, “overs” 6-2 last 8 in series.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Colts, based on “totals” and series trends.


JACKSONVILLE at DETROIT (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 3-2 vs. line away TY in a bit of improvement from recent seasons. Lions 1-2-1 as home chalk TY but 5-2-1 last 8 vs. spread at Ford Field.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions, based on team trends.


TAMPA BAY at KANSAS CITY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs “over” 9-3 last 12 since late 2015, also 3-1 SU and vs. line away TY. Andy Reid only 1-3 vs. line at Arrowhead TY and 1-6 last 7 as host since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Bucs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


CHICAGO at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 4-0-1 vs. line last four after Cincy win on Monday. G-Men also “over” 5-1 last six at MetLife Stadium. Bears only 3-11 last 14 on board and “over” 7-4 last 11 on road.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.


ARIZONA at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After covering 19 of 22, Vikings have now lost and failed to cover four straight. Zimmer “under” 8-3 last 11 since late 2015. Cards 1-3 vs. line last four away and “under” 8-3 last 11 regular season.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


BUFFALO at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After Monday loss vs. Giants., Cincy just 2-7 vs. line TY. Rex Ryan “over” 7-2 in 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


BALTIMORE at DALLAS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dak 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 vs. line TY. Ravens have now won and covered two straight after dropping four in a row SU and vs. line. Ravens 14-9 last 23 as dog. Harbaugh also “under” 8-3 last 11 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns now no covers last four TY after putting up some good fights, now 5-15-1 last 21 on board. Also “under” last two after Hue Jackson teams were “over” 12-3 dating to his Oakland year in 2011. Tomlin no wins or covers last four TY and only 1-3 as visitor. Steel also “under” 9-3 last 12 since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


MIAMI at LOS ANGELES (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams “under” 18-7-1 since late 2014. Miami four straight wins and covers.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.


NEW ENGLAND at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners covered last week but 1-7 vs. line last eight TY. Chip also “over” 6-3 TY and 11-4 last 15 dating to late last season with Eagles.
Tech Edge: Belichick and “over,” based on team and “totals” trendss.


PHILADELPHIA at SEATTLE (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Seahawks “over” 7-2-1 last ten at home, though 1-4 vs. spread last five at CenturyLink since late LY.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.




GREEN BAY at WASHINGTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack only 6-12 vs. spread last 18 reg.-season games. Note GB 1-8 as reg.-season dog since 2013. Skins 5-1-1 SU, 6-1 vs. line last seven games TY, 10-3 last 13 vs. spread in reg. season since late 2015. Skins also “over” 12-2 last 14 since late LY.
Tech Edge: Skins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

NFL


Week 11


Sunday Games


Titans (5-5) @ Colts (4-5)— Indy (+2.5) won first meeting 34-26 in Music City, scoring two TDs in 0:08 span after 2:00 warning- it was their 10th win in row over Titans (23-4 in last 27). Tennessee lost its last eight visits here. Titans are 2-2 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing by 7 in Houston, 8 in San Diego, with wins at Detroit/Miami. In last three games, Tennessee averaged 12.2/7.3/9.8 yards/pass attempt- they’ve averaged 32 pts/game in their last six games. Colts are 2-2 at home, beating Bears by 6, Chargers by 4; they’re 0-3 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Last seven Tennessee games went over total; average total in their last five games is 53.7- over is 7-2 in Indy games. Colts covered nine of their last 11 post-bye games, seven in row when favored.


Jaguars (2-7) @ Lions (5-4)— Hard to lay 7 points with Detroit when they’ve trailed every game this year in 4th quarter; all seven of their games were decided by 7 or less points. Detroit is 3-1 at home, 1-2 as home favorite, with wins by 1-3-3 points and loss to Tennessee. Jax lost its last four games; in two games since changing OC’s, Jaguars lost by 5-3 points, scoring 17.5 pts/game while turning ball over six times on 21 possessions. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-10 vs spread, 3-6 at home. AFC South road dogs are 4-5 vs spread. Jags won three of five series games, only one of which was decided by less than 5 points- teams split two meetings here. Detroit won its last four post-bye games, covered nine of last 12. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; Detroit’s last three games stayed under.


Buccaneers (4-5) @ Chiefs (7-2)— KC is 7-2 this year, 18-3 in its last 21 games but in their last two games, both wins, Chiefs scored one offensive TD on 22 drives, with eight FGAs. Chiefs have two wins this year when they trailed by 14+ in 4th quarter, only two games like that in NFL this year. KC is 4-0 at home this year but 1-3 as home favorite, winning at Arrowhead by 6-21-6-5 points- three of their last four wins are by 6 or less points. Tampa Bay scored 30.5 pts/game in splitting its last four games; Bucs are 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road dog, with only loss 40-7 at Arizona in Week 2- they won at Atlanta/Carolina. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 5-6. Bucs’ last four games went over total; Chiefs’ last five games stayed under.


Bears (2-7) @ Giants (6-3)— Big Blue’s six wins are by total of 21 points; their biggest win was 17-10 over Rams in London, when one of their two TD’s was scored by defense. Only one of nine giant games was decided by more than 7 points. New York is 4-1 SU at home, 1-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-4-1-5 points, with loss to Washington. Bears ran 12 plays for minus-13 yards in second half at Tampa LW; Chicago lost four of last five games, is 0-5 on road, 0-4 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-14-6-16-26 points. There was lot of talk Monday that Cutler could on way out of Chicago soon. Teams split last six series games, with last one in ’13. Bears won three of last four visits here, but last one was six years ago. Under is 6-3 in Giant games, 3-1 in last four Chicago games.


Cardinals (4-4-1) @ Vikings (5-4)— Minnesota is in freefall, losing last four games after a 5-0 start. Vikings are 3-1 in their new stadium, with only loss in OT to Lions. Arizona allowed 28 pts/game in losing two of first three road games, with only win at SF; Cardinals turned ball over six times in last two games, is 0-1-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less points. Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven games of a series where home team won last five meetings; Arizona beat them 23-20 LY in desert, thanks to +3 TO ratio. Cardinals lost last eight visits to Twin Cities, with last win here in ’77. NFC North teams are 9-15 vs spread outside the division; NFC West teams are 7-13. Three of last four Arizona games stayed under total; under is 7-2 in Viking games. This is only second game this year on artificial turf for the Cardinals (lost 33-18 in Buffalo).


Ravens (5-4) @ Cowboys (8-1)— Dallas won/covered eight games in row; Romo may dress as a backup here, but QB Prescott is the man for Cowboys now. Pokes are 3-1 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 14-14-6 points, with loss to Giants in Week 1. Ravens are 2-2 on road, beating Jax/Browns; both their road losses were in Swamp Stadium (0-2 as a road underdog this year). None of Baltimore’s eight losses are by more than 8 points. Baltimore won last five series games; last time Dallas beat them was in ’91, when Ravens were the Cleveland Browns. AFC North teams are 4-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC East teams are 15-5 vs spread outside the division, 9-2 at home. Under is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five games, 1-3 in Cowboys’ last four.


Steelers (4-5) @ Browns (0-10)— Not only is Cleveland terrible (outscored 60-8 in second half of last three games), they haven’t had their bye yet so they’re tired too. Browns lost six of last seven games with Pittsburgh, losing 30-9/28-12 LY; Steelers won five of last six visits here, with three of five wins by 16+ points. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread in its last seven games; 1-2-1 as home underdogs, losing home tilts by 5-20-3-25 points. Pitt lost its last four games, allowing 28 pts/game; Steelers lost last three road games, scoring four TD’s on 35 drives while scoring 10.7 pts/game. One thing though; all four Steeler wins this year are by 8+ points (wins by 22-8-29-18 points); they’re 0-3 in games decided by less than eight points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 11-4 vs spread this season.


Dolphins (5-4) @ Rams (4-5)— Rookie QB Goff gets his first NFL start here, vs Dolphin defense that picked Rivers off four times in 4th quarter alone LW in San Diego. Miami won/covered its last four games, scoring 29 pts/game; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win in San Diego- they scored TD on defense/special teams in three of last five games. Bar has been set low for Goff; on their last 32 drives, LA scored one TD- they didn’t score a TD in two of their four wins this year. Rams are 1-2 in Coliseum, scoring 12.7 pts/game (two TDs on 31 drives). Miami is 10-2 in last 12 games against the Rams, winning last three; last series win for Rams was in 2001. Fish are 5-1 vs Rams in LA/St Louis. Major question in this game is if Goff’s presence will take a defender out of box, open up more running lanes for Gurley.


Patriots (7-2) @ 49ers (1-8)— Over last nine years, NE is 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss as a favorite. Brady comes home to play here, but Gronkowski may not play after lung was injured in Seattle game. New England is 4-0 on road this year, 3-0 as road favorite, winning on foreign soil by 2-20-11-16 points. 49ers lost last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they’re 1-4 as a home underdog this year, losing last four home tilts by 7-12-17-18 points. Patriots won last visit to SF 30-21 in 2008, their only win in five road games vs 49ers; they won three of last four games with Niners, after losing seven of first eight. AFC East teams are 6-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West teams are 3-7 as an underdog, 0-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in Niners’ last eight games, 3-1 in Patriots’ last four.


Eagles (5-4) @ Seahawks (6-2-1)— Seattle got big win in Foxboro last week, could have letdown here. Seahawks are 4-0 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 2-19-2-6 points. Eagles lost four of last six games after a 3-0 start; they lost last four road games, allowing 28 pts/game but had strong defensive effort in 24-15 home win over Falcons LW. Philly is 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this year. Home side lost seven of last eight series games; Seattle won four of last five meetings. Philly is 5-3 in Seattle, but hasn’t been here since 2011. NFC West teams are 7-13 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 15-5. Over is 4-2 in Eagles’ last six games, 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven. Seahawk opponents converted 27 of last 42 on third down, not good.




Sunday Night


Packers (4-5) @ Redskins (5-3-1)— Green Bay is in free fall, losing last three games while allowing 111 points- they were down 35-10 in 2nd quarter in Nashville LW. Pack lost last three road games, by 3-1-22 points; their only road win was in opener at Jackaonville. Green Bay is 1-0 as an underdog this year. Redskins are 5-1-1 in last seven games after an 0-2 start (two home losses); they’re 2-1 as a home favorite, winning home games by 11-7-6 points. Washington is 30-57 on 3rd down in its last four games, helping improve field position. Packers won six of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, including a 35-18 win in a playoff game LY. Over is 7-2 in Washington games, 3-0 in Packers’ last three. NFC North teams are 5-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

StatFox Super Situations


NFL*|*GREEN BAY*at*WASHINGTON
Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) off 2 or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG)
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
1-2*this year.**(*33.3%*|*-1.2 units*)


NFL*|*TENNESSEE*at*INDIANAPOLIS
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (TENNESSEE) revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset win as a home underdog
29-8*over the last 10 seasons.**(*78.4%*|*20.2 units*)


NFL*|*NEW ENGLAND*at*SAN FRANCISCO
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games
197-90*since 1997.**(*68.6%*|*0.0 units*)
1-1*this year.**(*50.0%*|*0.0 units*)


NFL*|*BUFFALO*at*CINCINNATI
Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BUFFALO) off 2 or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (23-27 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG)
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
1-2*this year.**(*33.3%*|*-1.2 units*)


NFL*|*JACKSONVILLE*at*DETROIT
Play Against - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (DETROIT) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (<=25%) after 8+ games
29-8*since 1997.**(*78.4%*|*20.2 units*)

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

The game total on Sunday night's Packers-Redskins game has dropped by 2-3 points.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/20

The game total on Bears-Giants has dropped by 4 1/2 points.

The game total on Steelers-Browns has dropped six points since open.
This means significant money came in on the under for a game which opened at 49 1/2 points. The total is now down to 43 1/2 at most shops. It is very likely being driven by weather, as high winds are in the forecast in Cleveland.