NFL Betting Info 11/27

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/27

Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


Week 12 of the NFL season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the schedule.




Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (5.5, 42)


* The Titans’ offense has made one of the league’s biggest turnarounds from a season ago behind a potent ground attack featuring Murray and Marcus Mariota. The running quarterback also has blossomed as a passer in his second professional season, passing for 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions - with multiple scoring tosses in a franchise-record seven consecutive games. The Titans’ defense should have success if it can stop the run and keep pressure on Barkley with a strong pass rush led by linebackers Brian Orakpo (nine sacks) and Derrick Morgan (eight).


* Chicago’s injury woes continue to mount, as Cutler will be joined on the sideline by guard Kyle Long (ankle) while receiver Alshon Jeffery serves the second game of a four-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. The Bears’ linebacking corps also is thin, with rookie Leonard Floyd suffering from a concussion and leading tackler Jerrell Freeman beginning his own four-game suspension for PEDs. That’s bad news for a team that relies on its defense to keep it in games and ranks 31st in the league in scoring.


LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened the week as 2-point home dogs and that line has been growing all week, as of Saturday the line has grown to 5.5. The total opened 44.5 and has been bet down to 41.5.


TRENDS:


* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45)


* Chad Henne received more work in practice for the Jaguars during the week and would get the start should Bortles not be available. The Jaguars lost veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis to a season-ending calf injury against the Lions and running back T.J. Yeldon is questionable with an ankle injury for Jacksonville, which has lost five straight games. The Jaguars limited Detroit to just 14 yards on the ground last week but lost their third straight road game, two of wthem by one possession.


* Should McCoy not go, Mike Gillislie (326 yards, 4 TDs) would get the start and the offense could be further hindered by the absence of their top two receivers. Watkins is available to come off the injured reserve list this week after undergoing foot surgery and was cleared to practice Wednesday while Woods, who leads the Bills this season with 42 catches for 493 yards, is unlikely to play Sunday after suffering a sprained knee last week on a controversial hit by Vontaze Burfict. After going 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season, Buffalo squeezed by Cincinnati last week to snap its three-game losing streak but the victory was clearly aided by the Bengals' early loss of wide receiver A.J. Green.


LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened the week as 7-point home favorites against the Jags and that number quickly rose half point to 7.5 and has held all week. The total opened at 45.5 and faded during the week as low as 44, before rebounding to 45.


TRENDS:


* Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. AFC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 40.5)


* Cincinnati already had a void in their receiving corps following the offseason departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, but there is no way to replace Green, who had racked up 66 receptions for for 964 yards and fourth touchdowns through the first nine games. Rookie Tyler Boyd, who matched his season high with six catches last week, and journeyman Brandon LaFell will start and, along with tight end Tyler Eifert, serve as quarterback Andy Dalton's top targets. Bernard's loss is another huge blow, leaving Jeremy Hill to handle the rushing duties and taking away the prime pass-catching threat from the backfield. Cincinnati's defense is vulnerable to the run, permitting 123.4 yards per game.


* Veteran Steve Smith Sr., the oldest wideout in the league, continues to turn back the clock after becoming the 14th receiver in league history to reach 1,000 career receptions. Smith, who planned to retire a year ago before sustaining a season-ending injury, hit the milestone with eight catches for 99 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss. Baltimore needs to mount a consistent running attack with Terrance West and rookie Kenneth Dixon - who had eight and six carries, respectively, in Dallas - to keep the onus off Joe Flacco, who has made at least 40 pass attempts in seven of his last nine games. The Ravens are No. 2 in the league with 295.1 yards allowed per game.


LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened this AFC North battle as 3.5-point home favorites and that number jumped as high as 4.5, before fading back to 3.5 late in the week. As of Saturday the number has settled at 4. The total opened at 41.5 and has been bet down to 40.


TRENDS:


* Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC North.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 50.5)


* Arizona began the season in a 1-3 hole and can't quite seem to dig its way out as mistakes continue to pile up. "Just taking turns making mistakes, and that's frustrating," Fitzgerald told reporters. "Six games left in the regular season at this point and we have no room for error moving forward. None." Plenty of those mistakes are coming from quarterback Carson Palmer, who recorded five of his 10 interceptions in the last three games and managed a season-low 198 passing yards in a 30-24 loss at Minnesota last week.


* Matt Ryan is second in the NFL in passing yards (3,247) and has thrown for 24 touchdowns with five interceptions in the best season of his strong career. Ryan is in line to get more help from the running game with the return of Tevin Coleman, who sat out the last three games with a hamstring injury but looked fast at practice this week. "That's what we were checking to see with Tevin," coach Dan Quinn told reporters. "Would he have the speed to get in and out of his breaks that make him such a unique player? So we saw the speed with him."


LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened the week as 4-point home favorites and that number has grown two point to 6 late in the week. The total opened at 50.5 and has risen half point to 51.


TRENDS:


* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (7, 44)


* Jason Pierre-Paul was one of four players who did not participate in practice on Wednesday. The veteran defensive end, who registered 2 1/2 sacks in the win over the Bears, is dealing with a sore knee. Odell Beckham Jr. has made all of his team-leading six touchdown catches over the last six games and has recorded a league-high 31 since 2014.


* Robert Griffin III, who hasn't played since breaking a bone in his shoulder in the season opener against Philadelphia, practiced Wednesday after being designated for return from injured reserve. The 26-year-old Griffin, who has yet to be cleared for contact, will remain on IR for the rest of the season if Cleveland does not activate him within 21 days. Rookie Kevin Hogan, who has completed 14-of-26 passes for 104 yards with two interceptions in three games this season, will serve as McCown's backup on Sunday.


LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the week as 7-point road favorites against the winless Browns and were briefly faded down to 6.5 midweek before rising back to 7. The total opened at 44.5 and inched down half point to 44.


TRENDS:


* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in Browns last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.


San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (1, 46.5)


* Philip Rivers had a roller-coaster afternoon against Miami, as he threw three touchdown passes but was intercepted four times. The trio of scoring tosses gave him 301 for his career, moving him past John Elway for eighth place on the all-time list, while the four picks came within a span of 13 minutes in the fourth quarter. Ronnie Hillman, who led Denver in rushing last season with a career-high 863 yards but was released in September, was claimed off waivers from Minnesota after gaining 50 yards on 18 carries in five games with the Vikings.


* All signs point to a victory for Houston, as the club has won each of its five home games thus far this season while Brock Osweiler is 2-0 lifetime as a starter against San Diego. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz has made a touchdown catch in each of his last three home games while rookie wideout Braxton Miller made his first TD reception in last week's loss. Jadeveon Clowney leads all defensive ends and is second overall in the league with 12 tackles for loss.


LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Texans are 1-point favorites at home. The total opened 47 and was dropped to 46 and held that number the remainder of the week.


TRENDS:


* Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Texans are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 games on grass.
* Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 44.5)


* San Francisco already owns the worst defense in the league, giving up 31.3 points and 431.1 yards per game, and continues to be ravaged by season-ending injuries. The latest was to safety Eric Reid, who suffered a biceps tear in last week's loss to New England to join linebacker NaVorro Bowman - the NFL's leading tackler last season - and 2015 first-round draft pick Arik Armstead on the shelf. While speedster Torrey Smith missed his first career game last week, tight end Vance McDonald continues to emerge as one of Colin Kaepernick's trusted receivers with six targets in each of the last four games. Running back Carlos Hyde is coming off one of his best games of the season with 86 yards on 19 carries.


* With the 49ers yielding 179.5 rushing yards per game, logic dictates that Miami feature a heavy dose of Jay Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-yard games last month and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. However, the Dolphins could be without three starters along the offensive line as left tackle Branden Albert, first-round draft pick Laremy Tunsil and center Mike Pouncey all are dealing with injuries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offense were dreadful for most of last week's victory with nine punts and an interception on the first 10 possessions before he connected on a pair of late TD passes to wideouts Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Miami's run defense ranks 30th at 126.1 yards per game.


LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened as 7.5-home favorites and that has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and been faded down to one full point to 44.5.


TRENDS:


* 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games following a ATS win.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-7, 45.5)


* Los Angeles started Goff's debut fairly well last week, racing out to a 10-0 lead, but Goff played little part in it. Struggling back Todd Gurley gave the Rams a 7-0 lead with a 24-yard scoring run but he finished with just 76 yards on 20 carries after a strong start and he has not topped 85 yards in a game all season. Goff said he thought things went relatively well in his debut. "Felt good," he said. "We're obviously disappointed with the result there at the end and how things turned out, and how we felt through the whole game and how in control we were."


* Brees has thrown for 300 yards four times on the season and surpassed 400 yards twice to lead the league with 3,277 yards passing and 26 touchdowns. The Saints lost running back Mark Ingram to a head injury in the third quarter and their leading rusher with 575 yards and two touchdowns on the ground remains in concussion protocol. Ranked last in the league the past two seasons, New Orleans' defense has improved steadily this year and it ranks a respectable 18th in the NFL since Week 4, allowing 354.7 yards a game, and it is No. 1 in red-zone defense since Week 7.


LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Saints as 7-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 7.5 and has held firm all week. The total opened at 45.5 and remains fine with bettors having not moved all week.


TRENDS:


* Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 10-1 in Rams last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6, 45)


* Russell Wilson battled injuries in October and went three straight games without a touchdown - passing or rushing - to close out the month. Since the calendar turned, Wilson returned to health and has recorded six passing TDs without an interception in his last three games while adding rushing and receiving scores. "I think the quick bursts that he showed when he had to make the decision was really the confidence he demonstrated he's got," coach Pete Carroll told reporters in regard to Wilson's health. "I couldn't be more fired up about that. That's when we're playing ball the way we know how to play. It's a big factor for us."


* Winston steadily is making his way into the conversation about elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and he stretched his streak to 26 straight games to begin his career with at least one rushing or passing TD when he hit rookie tight end Alan Cross with a fourth-quarter TD pass in last week's 19-17 win at Kansas City. "Jameis was out of sight today," coach Dirk Koetter told reporters after the triumph. "That's as good of quarterback play of however many years I've been in the league now. Jameis - he was awesome all day. Jameis played a great game." Winston is forming a strong connection with wide receiver Mike Evans, who is third in the NFL with 916 receiving yards and second with eight TD catches.


LINE HISTORY: The lined with the Seahawks 5-point road favorites and that line has expanded to 6. The total opened at 44.5 and has inched up to 45 on Monday and remained there all week.


TRENDS:


* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games in November.
* Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 home games.* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.


Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-3, 49.5)


* Carolina's defense took a major hit in last week's victory as linebacker Luke Kuechly entered the league's concussion protocol while cornerback Leonard Johnson (chest) and defensive end Mario Addison (foot) also exited with injuries. Kuechly recorded 14 tackles against the Saints and has registered a league-high 693 since 2012. Center Ryan Kalil (shoulder) was a casualty on the offensive line and, along with Addison, is questionable to face Oakland.


* Two key members of the offense were not full participants in Wednesday's practice as receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Latavius Murray were limited due to ankle injuries. Carr threw his first interception since Oct. 16 on the first play of the second half on Monday, ending his streak of 170 consecutive passes without a pick. The third-year quarterback has been outstanding in his last three meetings with teams from the NFC South, throwing for 1,131 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 111.6 rating.


LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened up as 3.5-home favorites and the was quickly driven down to 3 and that number has held since Wednesday. The total opened a 48 and was up to 50, before fading back to 49.5.


TRENDS:


* Panthers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


New England Patriots at New York Jets (7.5, 45.5)


* Star tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice Wednesday after missing last week's win over the 49ers with a chest injury, but Brady threw scoring passes to four different receivers. Among them was rookie Malcolm Mitchell, a fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia who had four receptions for 98 yards to surpass his total yardage from his first six career games combined. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 124 yards on 19 carries -his fourth 100-yard performance of the season - while Dion Lewis rushed for 23 yards on five carries and added three catches in his season debut. New England registered five sacks a week ago, including one by newcomer Kyle Van Noy.


* Star tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice Wednesday after missing last week's win over the 49ers with a chest injury, but Brady threw scoring passes to four different receivers. Among them was rookie Malcolm Mitchell, a fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia who had four receptions for 98 yards to surpass his total yardage from his first six career games combined. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 124 yards on 19 carries -his fourth 100-yard performance of the season - while Dion Lewis rushed for 23 yards on five carries and added three catches in his season debut. New England registered five sacks a week ago, including one by newcomer Kyle Van Noy.


LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened the week as 8.5-road favorites in this AFC East battle and that number faded as low as 7, before settling at 7.5. The total opened at 47 and has been inching down all week to 45.5 as of Saturday morning.


TRENDS:


* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings.
* Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/27

AFC West heats up SNF


Week 12 SNF Betting Preview
Kansas City at Denver


Odds: Denver (-3.5); Total 39.5


A pair of 7-3 SU teams from the AFC West got flexed into SNF this week as the Chiefs and Broncos are looking to keep pace with the Oakland Raiders in the division.


This is the first meeting of two between these two rivals this season and chances are both of those tilts will go a long way in determining playoff positioning in the AFC. So what team comes out on top in round one?


Kansas City had a five-game winning streak snapped last week when they lost 19-17 at home vs. Tampa Bay. The Chiefs were laying a touchdown in that game so the result was disappointing on multiple levels, but it may be a sign of things to come for this team.


KC jumped out to their 7-2 start thanks to an incredible +13 turnover margin and capitalized on all those errors by the opposition on a weekly basis.


The 23 turnovers they've forced have been critical to their success as they are a bottom third team in the league in both offensive yards gained per game and defensive yards allowed per game. Taking advantage of those all those turnovers greatly helped KC in the standings but with how random a thing getting turnovers can be, many bettors fail to realize that the Chiefs record is nowhere near as good as it looks. Last week the Chiefs actually lost the turnover battle 2-1 and wouldn't you know it, a straight up loss was the result.


On the flip side, the Broncos are coming off their bye week as they prepare to catch fire again and attempt to defend their Super Bowl title. They went into the week of rest off a 25-23 victory in New Orleans where they got ran a blocked XP back to the house to turn what would have been a one-point deficit in the final minute into a two-point win.


It's been the solid play of their defense once again this year that's carried them to their 7-3 record, and those defensive players were likely glad to see the bye week after they allowed 30 and 23 points respectively in their last two contests.


Yet, those games came against offensive powerhouses from Oakland and New Orleans and there is no way the Chiefs offense comes close to being comparable. Denver was blown out on this field vs. KC a year ago when Peyton Manning threw multiple INT's and I don't believe Denver will allow that to happen again.


It will be the Broncos defense that leads the way one more time as they should have no trouble suffocating a sub-par Chiefs attack that does little to stretch the field and strike fear in the opposition.


Furthermore, with KC having lived off turning the ball over this year, as long as Denver QB Trevor Siemian takes care of the ball, this game could turn into a blowout. Denver's offense is more than capable of exposing a Chiefs defense that allows nearly 375 yards per game and turning those drives into points.


KC is one of the better points allowed defenses with just 18.7/game given up, but again, that's largely due to the turnovers they've gotten which is still at an unsustainable rate right now.


Surprisingly, there are still plenty of believers in this Kansas City squad as more than 60% of the bets taken so far on the spread and ML have come on the visitors.


Given that typically teams off a bye week get the majority of the love, betting percentages like that are quite surprising and I'm clearly seeing this game play out in a much different fashion.


Denver is 14-5-1 ATS when coming off a bye week over the past decade or so, and they are on a 6-1-1 ATS run at home. Throw in a 3-8 ATS mark for Kansas City on the road against a winning opponent and I've got no problem laying the small number with the home side here.


Best Bet: Take Denver -3.5

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/27

Sunday Night Football betting preview: Kansas City at Denver


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 39.5)


The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up for what figures to be an exciting race for the AFC West title, and their two head-to-head matchups over the next six weeks will go a long way toward determining the division champion. The Broncos get the first crack at hosting their rivals when the Chiefs visit the Mile High City on Sunday night.


There’s plenty at stake for both teams, who are one game behind Oakland in the division and tied for the AFC’s two wild-card spots, and the atmosphere figures to be even more electric under the lights of prime time. "I don't think you could make it any bigger or more intense than it already is," Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith told reporters. "The way the division has gone to this point, it's already pretty tight. This is our first crack at these guys, and they're the defending Super Bowl champions. We've been in a lot of battles with these guys over the years." The Broncos have dominated their rivals in recent years, winning seven of the last eight meetings, but the Chiefs ended a long skid in the series with a 29-13 triumph in the final matchup last season. While Denver should be healthy coming off its bye week, Kansas City is banged-up – especially on defense, with a number of key players nursing injuries that could keep them off the field Sunday.


TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.


LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened the week as 3.5-point home favorites over their division rivals from Kansas City. The line briefly dropped half a point to 3, but quickly returned to 3.5 and has remained. The total opened at 39.5 and hasn’t moved all week.


WHAT SHARPS SAY: This game was flexed into the Sunday night TV spot and the Patriots/Jets game was removed, and for good reason. This is a critical game in the AFC West division as both teams enter this week trailing Oakland by one game for first place in the division. The road team won both meetings last seasonand is now 4-1 SU/ATS in the past five head-to-head battles. The Chiefs are 8-2 to the Under this season, but that has been factored in by the oddsmakers as this is the lowest Over/Under line in any game this week. Steve Merril


WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have had this game at Broncos -3.5 favs at home all week and haven’t had to move off that number as we are seeing solid two way action, with the Chiefs getting just under 60 percent of the action to cover the +3.5. We have however moved the total from 40 to 39.5 as we are long on UNDER action with over 70 percent." - Michael Stewart.


WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Sports Authority Field at Mile High is clear skies with temperatures in the high 30’s at kickoff and winds out of the west at 11 mph.


INJURY REPORT:


Kansas City - RB Charcandrick West (probable, concussion), DB Marcus Peters (questionable, hip), DB Steven Nelson (questionable, neck), LB Derrick Johnson (questionable, achilles), Dontari Poe (questionable, back), DL Kendall Reyes (questionable, knee), LB Tamba Hali (questionable, knee), DL Jaye Howard (questionable, hip), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, knee), WR Jeremy Maclin (out, groin), LB Dee Ford (out, hamstring)


Denver - DE Derek Wolfe (probable, elbow)


ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U): Kansas City’s offense has been pedestrian, thanks in large part to a rash of injuries, and could be without two top receivers with Jeremy Maclin (doubtful, groin) and rookie Tyreek Hill (questionable, knee) hurting. If the Chiefs are going to have success against Denver’s stout defense, though, it likely will have to be on the ground with Spencer Ware, who got off to a great start to the season but has not scored a touchdown in the last three games. The Chiefs’ defense also is ailing with linebackers Derrick Johnson (Achilles) and Tamba Hali (knee) and nose tackle Dontari Poe (back) listed as questionable, although top cornerback Marcus Peters (hip) is likely to return after missing last week’s 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay.


ABOUT THE BRONCOS (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Denver leans on one of the best defenses in the league and ranks second in the NFL with 20 takeaways, including four in a 25-23 win at New Orleans prior to the bye week. The strong defense helps make up for a lackluster offense that has struggled to run the ball consistently and now is relying on rookie Devontae Booker to carry the load in the backfield. First-year starting quarterback Trevor Siemian has not put up impressive numbers but does enough to keep the Broncos in games and has a pair of dangerous targets in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who have enjoyed great success against the Chiefs.


TRENDS:


* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Chiefs last 7 games following a bye week.
* Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 3-0-2 in the last 5 meetings in Denver.


CONSENSUS: The home team is getting 58 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 54 percent of the total action.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/27

SNF - Chiefs at Broncos
By Micah Roberts


Sunday Night Football gives us a classic AFC West matchup with Kansas City visiting Denver, but the circumstances this time around are a little unusual as neither of the two 7-3 teams are sitting in first-place. Oakland holds that distinction, but depending on how the Raiders (8-2) fare at home against Carolina, the winner of this game could find themselves in a first-place tie.


The Broncos come off a bye and are listed as 3.5-point favorites with a total hovering around 39. They've won three of their last four, including an improbable 25-23 win at New Orleans in their last game that featured a winning defensive two-point conversion. The offense has been extremely vanilla with QB Trevor Siemian while in search of a running game, but the No. 4 ranked defense has kept them within reach of a win in every game. The Orange Crush pass rush has sacked opposing QBs 29 times, just two behind NFL leading Buffalo.


Kansas City had a five-game win streak snapped as 7-point home favorites in a 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay. Just like Denver, they too have a vanilla averaging just 97 rushing ypg, but rely on the opportunistic defense to pave the way to victory. They lead the NFL with 23 turnovers forced and have a turnover ratio of +13. Denver's offense has turned the ball over 15 times and Siemian has been sacked 26 times, both areas that the Chiefs will look to exploit.


The Chiefs combination of a conservative offense and opportunistic defense has seen them stay Under the total in their last six and eight of 10 this season. The Broncos have stayed Under in five of their last seven. Both defenses allow only 18 ppg.


RECENT MEETINGS


The road team has covered the last five meetings, including the underdog covering the last four. Denver has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and the Under has gone 3-0-2 in the last five at Denver. Kansas City (+3.5, 42) won 29-13 at Denver in the last meeting in 2015 and Denver (+3, 42) won 31-24 at Kansas City in the earlier meeting.


LINE MOVEMENT


MGM sports books opened Denver -3 on Monday and within an hour it was bet up to -3.5 where it's remained all week through Saturday. The low number in town is at William Hill book at -3 (-120). The low total number is 38.5 at Stratosphere and Caesars books and the high number is at 39.5 at multiple books.


WHO THE BETTORS TAKING?


"We've had sharp play on each side with the Chiefs and Broncos," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews, "and the public is also split. It's one of our most bet games of the day."


ROBERTS' RATING


I have the Chiefs a half-point better than the Broncos and I give Denver a full three points for home field which makes my number Kansas City -2.5. I have the Raiders a half-point better than Kansas City making them the second highest rated AFC team, 4-points behind the Patriots.


DIVISION ODDS (WESTGATE)


The Broncos came into the season as 3-to-2 favorites to win the AFC West with the Chiefs close behind at 8-to-5. The Raiders were the third choice at 7-to-2 and currently lead the division which has forced the odds to flip with them as the 10-to-13 favorite. Denver is now 3-to-1 and Kansas City 11-to-4. The Chargers have been eliminated from contention.


SUPER BOWL ODDS (WESTGATE)


Raiders (14/1), Broncos (20/1), Chiefs (25/1)


WEATHER


A storm front can sneak up over the rockies onto Denver at a moments notice, but as of Saturday there doesn't appear a chance of snow or rain. It will be a crisp 49 degrees, which isn't a big deal, but the 15 mph winds is certainly something to take notice of.


INJURIES


CHIEFS: Charcandrick West (concussion) ?, DE Dee Ford (hamstring) ?, WR Jeremy Maclin (groin) ?, DB Marcus Peters (hip) ?, DT Jaye Howard (hip) ?
BRONCOS: CB Kayvon Webster (abdomen) ?, CB Aqib Talib (lower back) ?


TRENDS


-- Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in last four coming of an ATS loss.
-- Kansas City is 8-3 ATS in last 11 road games.
-- Kansas City is 5-0 to the Under in last five following a loss.
-- Denver is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight home games.
-- Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against AFC West teams.
-- Denver is 6-1 to the Under in last seven against winning teams.


NEXT WEEK


The Westgate SuperBook posted their early Week 13 spreads on Tuesday and have Denver -4.5 at Jacksonville and Kansas City getting +3.5 at Atlanta.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/27

'AFC West Rivals Clash'


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos November 27, 8:30 EST


Longtime AFC West Rivals Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos get it on at Sports Authority Field in this week's Sunday Night'r. The Chiefs' five game win streak ended this past week with a stunning 19-17 home loss to the Bucs moving the mark to 7-3 (4-5-1 ATS) on the campaign. Denver, which also holds a 7-3 record (7-3 ATS) defeated Saints 25-23 lin its last effort as 3-point road underdogs and enter refreshed off their bye week.


The betting market not overly impressed with Chiefs ability to get Winston and the Tampa Bay offense off the field in the loss at Arrowhead Stadium have given Denver the nod opening Broncos -3.0 point home favorites.


Adding fuel to the betting market's lean towards Denver. The Broncos sports a money-making 6-1-1 ATS record in front of the home audience, a sparkling 6-0 ATS streak after a bye, 11-2 ATS record last thirteen with an extra week to prepare. Additionally, Broncos have won seven of eight vs their division rival, twelve of fifteen as host in the series. Also, Broncos have a habit of coming up big at the betting window following an upset win as an underdog. In the last eleven such situations, Broncos have cashed 10 tickets with just one being tossed in the trash bin.


That said, do note the Chiefs have cashed four straight on the road vs a division opponent and have covered eight of nine in a division opponents back yard. One final nugget, Chiefs have a sparkling 6-1 record against the betting line following a loss the previous effort when squaring off against a division rival the next game.

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Re: NFL Betting Info 11/27

Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall


Sunday, Nov. 27


SAN DIEGO at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line at home TY. Bolts 3-2 as road dog TY, now 21-10-1 in role since 2011. Bolts also “over” 9-2 last 11 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


TENNESSEE at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 3-7 vs. line TY, now 4-11 vs. spread last 15 on board since late 2015. Titans “over” 11-3 last 14 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Titans, based on Titans’ “totals” and anti-Bears trends.


JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 2-5 vs. spread last seven as visitor. Gus Bradley also “over” 10-6 last 16. Rex Ryan 5-2 last seven vs. spread at Orchard Park.
Tech Edge: Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Harbaugh “under” 9-3 since late LY. Cincy 2-8 vs. spread TY but Bengals have won last five SU in series (4-1 vs. line).
Tech Edge: Slight to “under” and Ravens, based on recent and “totals” and series trends.


ARIZONA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards just 3-8 last eleven vs. spread, 1-3 last four on road. Falcs only 1-3 vs. line at home TY, but also “over” 8-2 this season.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins win and cover last five TY, Niners 0-9 SU, 1-8 vs. line last 9 since Rams opener. Both also “over” 6-3 last 9 TY.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


LOS ANGELES at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 6-1 last seven vs. line, only L that stretch the wild loss vs. Denver. Rams 3-0-1 vs. number as visitor TY (not counting London game), and “under” 19 -7-1 since late in 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on recent trends.


NY GIANTS at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Winless Browns now also no covers last five TY, also “under” last three after Hue Jackson “over” 12-3 in fifteen previous as HC at Oakland (2011) and Brownies TY. Eli 4-1-1 vs. line last six TY.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.


SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs just 1-6 vs. spread last seven as host, 4-9 since LY.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


CAROLINA at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cam 0-4-1 last five vs. spread away from home, but 12-6 last 18 as reg,-season dog. Raiders 1-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-9 since LY for Del Rio. Raiders also “over” 8-2 TY.
Tech Edge: Cam and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Belichick 0-5-1 vs. line against Jets since 2013, including very damaging SU loss late LY. Pats 5-1 SU and vs. line since Brady return, Jets on 2-6 spread skid. “Overs” 11-2 last 13 in series.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.




KANSAS CITY at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
KC has won and covered last three away, but Andy Reid 1-5 SU, 2-4 vs. line against Broncos since moving to KCV in 2013. Kubiak on 9-3 spread run, 7-3 TY, and 5-1 last six vs. spread as host. “Unders” 8-2-1 last eleven series meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting Info 11/27

NFL


Week 12


Sunday Games


Chargers (4-6) @ Texans (6-4)— Short week for Houston after Monday night game in Mexico City, while Chargers are coming off a bye. Texans are 5-0 at home, 3-0-1 as home favorites; Bolts are 2-5 in last seven post-bye games, scoring 11.5 pts/game in last four; they’re 1-4 on road this year, with four of five games decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Chargers are 3-2 as road underdogs, 2-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Houston is 3-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less. San Diego won four of last five series games, winning 27-20/29-23 here; average total in last four series games, 50.8. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 11-3 vs spread, AFC South home teams are 7-7. Over is 8-2 in San Diego games this year, 5-2 in Texans’ last seven games.


Titans (5-6) @ Bears (2-8)— Chicago QB Cutler hurt shoulder Sunday, may be out for year; check status- former Eagle/Cardinal/USC Barkley is backup QB (65 PA in five games, no starts). Bears were outscored 32-0 in second half of last two games, 59-14 in last four; they’re 2-2 at home, beating rivals Lions/Vikings- they’re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog. Tennessee has their bye next week, could be little tired; they’re 2-3 on road, 3-1-1 as road favorite last four years (0-0 this year). Home side lost last four series games; Titans are 3-2 here, but last visit was in ’08. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC North teams are 6-6 in non-divisional home teams. Over is 7-1 in last eight Tennessee games, 1-4 in Bears’ last five. Underdogs covered all four Chicago home games this season.


Jaguars (2-8) @ Bills (5-5)— Both teams have fired their OC during season; Jax is 0-3 since they canned their OC, losing by 5-3-7 points, turning ball over nine times (-7) on 35 drives. Buffalo lost three of last four games, is 2-2 SU at home, 1-1 as home favorites; they haven’t allowed a 2nd half TD in five of last seven games. Jaguars lost last five games, are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 24-14-5 points, with win at Chicago 17-16, after they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter. Bills are 2-2 vs spread as favorites this year. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-5 vs spread; AFC South road teams are 5-7. Over is 6-4 in Jaguar games, 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games. NFL-wide, favorites of 7+ points are 20-15-1 vs spread this season.


Bengals (3-6-1) @ Ravens (5-5)— Cincy is 3-6-1 despite being favored in 7 of 10 games this year; they’re 1-4-1 in last six games, losing last two by total of 5 points- they lost last four true road games, by 8-14-1-18. Bengals’ only road win this year was 23-22 in Swamp Stadium over Jets back in Week 1. Baltimore won its last two home games; they’re 4-1 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-4 when they allow more. Ravens are 3-2 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-7-21, losses to Raiders/Redskins. Bengals won last five series games, with 3 of 5 by 7+ points; Bengals won 23-16/28-24 in last two visits here. Home favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC North games this season. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four road games, 5-1 in last six Raven games.


Cardinals (4-5-1) @ Falcons (6-4)— Arizona coach Arians was hospitalized Monday with chest pains; coaching is stressful. Home side won last eight series games; Redbirds lost last seven visits here, with last win here in ’93. Cardinals turned ball over 8 times (-5) in last three games; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, allowing 33-30 points to Bills/Vikings. Atlanta is 2-3 in last five games after a 4-1 start; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 1-15 points- average total in Falcon home games, 66.3 (over 4-0). All four Arizona road games also went over. Atlanta is 6-1 in last seven post-bye games (5-2 vs spread). Redbirds are 1-3 on road, with only win at SF (0-2 as road underdog)— all four road games went over total. Over is 8-2 in Atlanta games. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-9 vs spread, 3-4 on road. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-7 vs spread.


49ers (1-9) @ Dolphins (6-4)— Miami won/covered last five games after 1-4 start, rallying from down 10-0 with 5:00 to go last week in LA- they trailed three of last four games at half. Dolphins are 4-1 at home, 1-4 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-15-3-4 points. Opponents are 17 of 59 on 3rd down during Miami’s win streak. Fish are +8 in turnovers the last five games. 49ers lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-19-29-3 points (cover was at Arizona). SF was outscored 75-26 in 2nd half of last five games. Niners won five of last seven series games; they’re 2-3 in five visits here, with last one in ’08. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-3 at home. NFC West underdogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road. Over is 6-3 in Niners’ last nine games.


Rams (4-6) @ Saints (4-6)— New Orleans scored 25+ points in all four of its wins; they’re 0-4 when they score less than 25. First road start for rookie QB Goff; at least it won’t rain like it did in his debut LW. Rams have two offensive TDs on their last 43 drives; they’re 3-2 SU on road, 4-0 as road underdogs, with road losses 28-0 at SF, 31-28 in Detroit. New Orleans had three extra days to prep after Thursday game last week; Saints lost last two games by total of 5 points. NO is 2-3 SU at home, with underdog covering all five games- Saints are 0-3 as home faves. Rams won four of last six series games; last one was in ’13. LA is 4-2 in last six visits here (last one in ’10). NFC West non-divisional dogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road; NFC South favorites are 4-9, 2-7 at home. Last four Ram games, four of Saints’ last five games stayed under total.


Giants (7-3) @ Browns (0-11)— Cleveland is awful and tired; their bye is next week. New York has 7 wins by total of 27 points; none by more than seven points. Giants are 1-2 in true road games, with only win 20-19 in Dallas- they beat the Rams 17-10 in London, on a neutral field. Cleveland goes back to McCown at QB this week; they’ve been outscored 70-17 in second half of their last four games. Browns are 1-3-1 as home underdogs, with losses on Lake Erie by 5-20-3-25-15 points. Giants won three of four series games; all four were decided by 14+ points- teams split two meetings here, with last one in ‘08. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-3 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-9, 0-3 at home. Under is 5-2 in last seven Giant games, 3-0 in Browns’ last three games.


Seahawks (7-2-1) @ Buccaneers (5-5)— Seattle is on a roll, winning last three games by 6-7-11 points; they’re 2-2-1 on road, with wins 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro. Seahawks are +9 in turnovers over their last seven games, after being -5 in first three. Tampa Bay won its last two games; they’ve allowed 27+ points in all five losses- they’re 5-0 allowing less than 27. Bucs are 1-4 at home with only win over Chicago; their home losses are by 5-20-6-15 points. Tampa is 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, 1-2 at home. These teams came into NFL together in 1976. Bucs won three of last four series games; seven of last nine series games stayed under. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC South underdogs are 9-2, 2-1 at home.


Panthers (4-6) @ Raiders (8-2)— Short week for Oakland after win in Mexico City Monday; they’ve won/covered last four games, scoring 30 pts/game. Raiders are 2-2 at home this year, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-10 in Coliseum— they lost to Falcons/Chiefs. Panthers are 3-1 since their bye, with last three games all decided by exactly 3 points; Carolina is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-15-3 points, and win in LA- this is first time they’ve been an underdog this season. Carolina is 3-2 in series games; four of five games were decided by 11+ points; they split two visits here, with last trip here in ‘08. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-7 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Over is 8-2 in Oakland games; last three Panther games stayed under.


Chiefs (7-3) @ Broncos (7-3)— If playoffs started today, this would be AFC Wild Card game. Chiefs had 5-game win streak snapped at home LW; their last three games were all decided by 5 or less points. KC is 3-2 on road, 1-2 as road underdogs; favorites covered four of their five road games. Broncos won/covered four of five home games, with lone loss to Falcons; they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Denver won seven of last eight series games, winning three of last four played here, with wins by 35-10-7 points (Chiefs won 29-13 here LY), NFL-wide, home favorites are 15-16-1 vs spread in divisional games this season. Under is 8-1 in Chiefs’ last nine games, 5-2 in Denver’s last seven. Kansas City is +17 in turnovers in its seven wins; they were -1/-2/-1 in losses- they have only one win this year with negative turnover ratio.




Sunday Night


Patriots (8-2) @ Jets (3-7)— New England is 8-2 in last ten series games, with both losses in OT; average total in last five series games, 48.2. Patriots are 3-2 in last five visits here; they won/covered all four road games since Brady came back, winning by 20-11-16-13 points, but Gronkowski won’t play here, Brady didn’t practice Wednesday. Fitzpatrick is back at QB for Jets after Petty played in 9-6 home loss to Rams; Jets are 2-5 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. NY is 1-3 at home, with win over Ravens; losses were by 1-10-3 points. Jets’ last three games were all decided by 4 or less points- they’re 2-5 as an underdog, 1-1 at home. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 11-5 vs spread this year in divisional games. Under is 4-1 in Patriot road games, 5-1 in Jets’ last six games.