NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

[jumperjack]

41-31 for the season in the NFL ($1,575)



Comp Play
$300 L.A. Chargers/New England over 48.5 LOSER (-330)

[junior713]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

Got too fancy and out thought myself tonight, should have just played the game under...

$300 Baltimore Team Total under 20 (-120) A little bit different approach then normal playing the team total here. I like how Miami matches up defensively against the VERY bad Ravens passing offense. Dolphins have one of the best run defenses in the league (5th allowing 3.6 ypa) and Baltimore is dead last in the NFL with 5.3 yards/attempt passing. Ravens already un-talented receiving corps is unbelievably banged up, as of right now all 4 of their top receivers could be out tonight! Hard to see how they move the ball, and this looks to me the best way to bet on this game. LOSER (-360)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

Well, I feel a little better now, the under for the game lost too.

[bigapple]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

Baltimore plays two more rather capable offenses all year. I doubt their defense puts up 3 scores week in week out. I'd roll with the unders here out, you'll be plus in the end.

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

Started the day with this play...
$300 Cleveland/Minnesota under 38 This one doesn't take a rocket scientist to break down. Cleveland was already one of the worst offenses in the NFL,and now lose their only Pro Bowl player Joe Thomas to a season ending injury. The Vikings are not likely to kill this total themselves. Even with Stefon Diggs expected back their offense is below average. LOSER (-330)

Also added a play on a late afternoon game, check your e-mails.

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

Had these in the early games...

$400 Carolina +2 $WINNER$ (+400)
$400 San Francisco +13 (-120) One of the best sell high, buy low combo situations all season. Philly coming off a fairly dominant performance on Monday night, while the Niners got killed by Dallas. San Francisco has been competitive in all of its road games, losing by a FG or less every time, including tough losses @Seattle and Washington. The Eagles meanwhile have just lost 2 of their best players to injury. With Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks out the Eagles stock should be down, but public perception has them at a season high level after than MNF win. Some situational numbers really back this play as well. Double digit dogs off losses where they scored 10 or less and allowed 38 or more are 15-0-1 ATS since December 2005! I supplied the link to the SDQL query of that situation below. Basically it is a team off a blowout loss that scored very little. LOSER (-480)
$400 L.A. Chargers +7.5 (-120) LOSER (-480)
$300 L.A. Chargers/New England over 48.5 The Patriots have re-established themselves as the "team to beat" in the NFL once again after their man-handling of Atlanta. Since Phillip Rivers joined the team they have been fantastic road dogs against teams with a better record than them. In fact they are 19-0 ATS in that situation as long as they have not beaten the team they are playing this year. All that eliminates is division rivals with same season revenge. LOSER (-330)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

The afternoon plays...

$400 Seattle -5.5 LOSER (-440)
$400 Houston/Seattle over 45.5 $WINNER$ (+400)
$300 Washington +2.5 (-105) LOSER (-315)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

Had these tonight...

$300 Kansas City -7 $WINNER$ (+300)
$400 Denver +13 & Denver/Kansas City under 48.5 (-115) This is a 6 point teaser I got @5Dimes. If you use that particular book they offer 2 levels of teasers. This one is a winner if one side pushes. So if Denver loses by 13 it is a winner as long as it stays under 48.5 points. With this teaser we also bring into a middle opportunity with Kansas City winning by 8, 10, 11 or 13 points. Those 8 and 11 point decisions are increasingly more viable since the NFL added the 2 point conversion and also with the longer extra point tries. To be honest I am not crazy about my original bet on the Chiefs, for all the reasons I outlined, and I think this is absolutely the best way to hedge off that bet and possibly even get 2 winners. $WINNER$ (+400)

[jumperjack]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

4-7 for the week (-$1,235) and 45-38 for the season in the NFL (+$340)

[Spanks]

Re: NFL Plays Week 8 - Comp Play up

Nice middle tonight. Big week coming next week