Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

[TheGame]

We have a lot of solid posters on here. Now it's time to put that to good use.
Feel free to share your thoughts on the games for this weekend.
Also add any injury news, stats, trends and weather updates you may have.
Discuss the games.
Tell us your top play and more in this thread

[TheGame]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Event Details	8:10 PM EST on January 04, 2014		27° F/ -3° C Partly Cloudy
San Diego Chargers	Cincinnati Bengals	Event Details	1:05 PM EST on January 05, 2014		36° F/ 2° C Rain
San Francisco 49ers	Green Bay Packers	Event Details	3:40 PM CST on January 05, 2014		-6° F/ -21° C Partly Cloudy

[TheGame]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

- The Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Lucas Oil Stadium. Oddsmakers currently have the Colts listed as 3-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 47. In their last action, Kansas City was a 27-24 loser on the road against the Chargers. They covered the 15-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (51) was profitable news for OVER bettors. The Colts were a 30-10 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Jaguars. They covered the 11.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (40) made winners of UNDER bettors. Team records: Kansas City: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS Indianapolis: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles - The New Orleans Saints and the Philadelphia Eagles will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Lincoln Financial Field. Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 3-point favorites versus the Saints, while the game's total is sitting at 54. The Saints were a 42-17 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Buccaneers. They covered the 10.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (59) made winners of OVER bettors. Last time out for Philadelphia, they were a 24-22 winner as they battled the Cowboys on the road. The Eagles failed to cover in the match as a 7-point favorite, while 46 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. Team records: New Orleans: 11-5 SU, 8-7-1 ATS Philadelphia: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS

[TheGame]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

San Diego Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

- The San Diego Chargers and the Cincinnati Bengals will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Paul Brown Stadium. Oddsmakers currently have the Bengals listed as 7-point favorites versus the Chargers, while the game's total is sitting at 47. In their last action, San Diego was a 27-24 winner at home against the Chiefs. They failed to cover the 15-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (51) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Cincinnati was a 34-17 winner in its last match at home against the Ravens. They covered the 7-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 51 sent OVER bettors to the payout window. Team records: San Diego: 9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS Cincinnati: 11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers - The fans at Lambeau Field will be treated to a game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers when they take their seats on Sunday. Oddsmakers currently have the 49ers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Packers, while the game's total is sitting at 47½. The 49ers were a 23-20 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Cardinals. They covered the 3-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (43) made winners of OVER bettors. In their last action, Green Bay was a 33-28 winner on the road against the Bears. They covered the 3-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (61) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Team records: San Francisco: 12-4 SU, 10-5-1 ATS Green Bay: 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS

[Winningpix]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

Not sure who and if I'm betting these games, but just a few thoughts. Could weather be a factor ? The 3 outdoor games are in Cincy, GB and Philly. Will Bree's perform to his own level outdoors at night in cold temperatures ? Will the emotions of the Packers and Eagles wins carry over into this week or will there be nothing left in the tank ?

Thoughts ??

[TheMule]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

I just had to pick my office pool winners (SU), I'm hitting at about 70% for the season, and if spreads don't matter...

I went with Indy, Philly, Cincy and San Fran. I haven't even looked at the lines yet or the weather or injuries or anything, as I don't want to out-think myself. It's worked well so far. Will add more to the thread later.

[TheMule]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

Yep, appears I picked all the favs. I just bet on Philly and SF. I like Philly's running game and am hoping the elements/being on the road slows down Brees. SF is a better all around team, especially on defense and their offensive line/running game. SF would be my play of the week probably - especially if you can get them for -2.5. I had to bet them at -3 (-100). They wanted -125 for me to buy down a half point - screw that.

[acesfull4980]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

I am leaning:

Colts -1.5
Eagles -2.5
Bengals -7 (even) AND ML -300 (I'm going to take a touch on each - I can't imagine SD winning this game 25% of the time, so I think there is value at -300)
GB Packers +3 (-120)

I think Cincy is the strongest play, but not totally in love with any of them. Quick thoughts:

- I like the way the Colts have rebounded lately, and hate the way the Chiefs finished (2-5 over their final 7 games). I don't think Indy has a great home field advantage, but KC being AWAY should hurt quite a bit.
- Saints away from home gets a lot of press. But, as Mule stated, the elements are way could be the driving factor here. Depending upon wind and chill, my play on Philly could increase. I love how well Philly is coached, and the run game in January is important.
- In a rematch, I really don't think much will change between Cincy and SD. Cincy's D should lock SD down, especially with SD on the road. I'm not saying that Cincy's home field is even average, but any noise at all should bother a team like the Chargers that likes to audible at the line of scrimmage. Cincy rolls.
- The GB / 49ers game really could go either way. The public seems to be all over the 49ers, with the cliche statement of "defense travels". However, I tend to like cold weather teams in sub-arctic conditions. I remember Kap and Boldin being the deciding factors in the early season matchup against GB. This time, however, I don't think the 49ers will be able to throw nearly as effectively. I call this a coin toss, but lean towards the home team playing in its own elements. Don't get tricked into thinking GB will be neutralized as it is a "pass happy" offense. With Lacy, they are far more balanced then in past years. Plus, Rodgers performs well in the elements.

[TheGame]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

I am leaning:

Colts -1.5
Eagles -2.5
Bengals -7 (even) AND ML -300 (I'm going to take a touch on each - I can't imagine SD winning this game 25% of the time, so I think there is value at -300)
GB Packers +3 (-120)

I think Cincy is the strongest play, but not totally in love with any of them. Quick thoughts:

- I like the way the Colts have rebounded lately, and hate the way the Chiefs finished (2-5 over their final 7 games). I don't think Indy has a great home field advantage, but KC being AWAY should hurt quite a bit.
- Saints away from home gets a lot of press. But, as Mule stated, the elements are way could be the driving factor here. Depending upon wind and chill, my play on Philly could increase. I love how well Philly is coached, and the run game in January is important.
- In a rematch, I really don't think much will change between Cincy and SD. Cincy's D should lock SD down, especially with SD on the road. I'm not saying that Cincy's home field is even average, but any noise at all should bother a team like the Chargers that likes to audible at the line of scrimmage. Cincy rolls.
- The GB / 49ers game really could go either way. The public seems to be all over the 49ers, with the cliche statement of "defense travels". However, I tend to like cold weather teams in sub-arctic conditions. I remember Kap and Boldin being the deciding factors in the early season matchup against GB. This time, however, I don't think the 49ers will be able to throw nearly as effectively. I call this a coin toss, but lean towards the home team playing in its own elements. Don't get tricked into thinking GB will be neutralized as it is a "pass happy" offense. With Lacy, they are far more balanced then in past years. Plus, Rodgers performs well in the elements.

I pretty much agree with everything you wrote.
Same feeling I have for liking the Packers is all about the weather and Lacy.
Said it before and I will say it again. The Packers do probably the best job of drafting players and keeping the team together.
Very few players on their roster have played for other teams

[TheMule]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

I just bet Cincy -6.5 (-120) - BIG

SD has a poor rushing Defense - only three other teams give up a higher average yards per carry. They will have to win on the road against a team that hasn't lost a single home game (including beating three other playoff teams at home). Cincy already beat San Diego a few weeks ago and there's no doubt they're confident they can do it again. Cincy has faced three pretty good QB's at home this season (Big Ben, A. Rodgers, and T. Brady) - those QB's combined for a whopping 2 TDs, 4 interceptions, 10 sacks, and an average of 231 passing yards. Only the Seahawks have held opposing QB's to a lower QB rating. Cincy also has the #5 Rushing Defense. Defense and running the ball wins games in the playoffs. Yes the Chargers have a chance at covering, especially if Dalton serves up a few picks (which he's definitely prone to doing at times). However, I think P. Rivers ends up being harrassed all day, they won't be able to establish the run, and the Chargers get their asses handed to them again just like they did in San Diego.

Cincy is 8-0 SU/ATS at home this season.

[TheMule]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

Why I like the Niners (again!):

It’s on the road, but the weather should fit better with SanFrancisco's run it down your throat mentality. Green Bay has the worst defense of any team in the postseason. The Packers are especially poor vs. the run. They’re allowing 4.63 yards per carry (the worst of any playoff team) and it's gotten worse over the 2nd half of the season, partly due to injuries. In its last nine games, the GB defense has allowed an average of 157 rushing yards, with 10 TDs. The 49ers ranked 3rd in rushing offense in the regular season, up at 138 yards per game. So this looks like a game where you simply give the rock early and often to Frank Gore and let playoff phenoms (Boldin and V. Davis) do their things along the way. These two receivers have historically stepped up their games in a big way during the post-season. GB and A. Rodgers will get theirs through the air, but I don't think it will be enough... just like the last three matchups. These weather conditions only help accentuate S.F.'s key matchup advantages. San Francisco has a really good defense, especially vs. the run. Only Carolina and Seattle allowed fewer points than the 9ers this season and only four defenses gave up fewer yards.

The weather elements, the better rushing team, better rushing defense, better defense overall, the 49ers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games, and the 9ers are confident they can beat the packers anytime, anywhere after beating them 3 x straight over the last 1.5 years.

[jumperjack]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

Forecast for Sunday afternoon in Green Bay is -10 with a -30 wind chill. If you like the over (I do), wait till game day, public money will see the pre-game shows with all the talk about how cold it is and that total will drop like the temperature. If you like the under, get it in NOW! I would also like to comment on Aaron Rodgers playing well in the elements, the Packers' Super Bowl run was all on the road starting with a game @ Philly that Aaron played pretty well in and that was in like 30 degree temps. They beat Atlanta in the Dome, easily Rodgers best game that year. The NFC Champ game was at Soldier's Field and Rodgers did not play well in 20 degree temps. Very low comp % and 0 TD with 2 ints. The next year we played the Giants at home in the Divisional round and he did not play well either. That was also in like 20 degree temps. This game Sunday will be by far the coldest temps he has ever played in. Just last week in Chicago he looked very uncomfortably cold almost the entire game. Every time they lined up for a play Rodgers kept his hands in the warmer hanging around his waist till the ball was snapped, sometimes removing his hands just as he saw the ball coming towards him. Aaron Rodgers HATES the cold weather, trust me, he is a California boy. I would not be surprised to see him fumble a few snaps Sunday because he is so late removing his frozen paws from that thing hanging around his waist.

[MacDaddy33]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

As of yesterday 3 games this weekend were not sold out.

G.B. --- which surprises me the most of the 3,maybe the below 0 temps keeping some away.

Indy --- no reason for this weather wise

Cincy --- Team started a commercial with players in it on web site to promote ticket sales to get fans to game.

Can't imagine having a playoff game and not getting it sold out!!

[jumperjack]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

As of yesterday 3 games this weekend were not sold out.

G.B. --- which surprises me the most of the 3,maybe the below 0 temps keeping some away.

Indy --- no reason for this weather wise

Cincy --- Team started a commercial with players in it on web site to promote ticket sales to get fans to game.

Can't imagine having a playoff game and not getting it sold out!!

I attend Packers' games regularly, if by best friend called me and said he would give me his tickets to the game I wouldn't go. No freaking way am I sitting outside in -30 degree wind chills for 3 and a half hours when I have a perfectly good brand new Lazy Boy parked about 10 feet away from a 55 inch HD screen in my toasty warm living room. I wouldn't go if he paid me!!

[TheGame]

Re: Talking about Playoffs. Share your thoughts and info in here.

I attend Packers' games regularly, if by best friend called me and said he would give me his tickets to the game I wouldn't go. No freaking way am I sitting outside in -30 degree wind chills for 3 and a half hours when I have a perfectly good brand new Lazy Boy parked about 10 feet away from a 55 inch HD screen in my toasty warm living room. I wouldn't go if he paid me!!

That right there is a good reason the over makes sense.
If you wont even sit there...
Who in their right mind wants to crash into somebody at full speed.
Even though I stunk at it. I use to punt and place kick when playing football. Pretty much because nobody else wanted the job.
Trust me. I don't care if they keep the kicking balls in an easy bake oven.
Weather that cold will make it feel like your punting a pumpkin.
Could be a lot of short fields for each offense.