Week 12 - Gobble gobble

[omar]

Enjoying the day off. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. I always enjoy the day after, with cold turkey on dinner rolls for breakfast. Throw in some boozy egg nog and I'm off and running.

Falcons at Jagulars +2

I feel bad for Jax losing Jamal Agnew. His 102-yard kick return 109-yard FG return are two of the best moments of the Jags season. Filling in for injured DJ Chark, Agnew has been a reliable target in the passing game (caught 12 of 14 passes thrown to him.) With even less now at WR, Jags should just pound the rock. James Robinson has been playing through a heel/ankle injury, but even if he's not at full strength, the Jags should be able to run right at Atlanta.
Falcons have been outscored 68-3 the past two weeks, so I asked the database about this.
Show me teams like the Falcons that scored less than 4 points combined the past two weeks, while giving up at least 50 points combined last two:

0-5 SU
0-5 ATS
5-0 O/U

Guess the Falcons don't spring back to life on offense.

No opinion on the total, other than I don't see how either team does their part. The opening total was 48, but now down to 45? I guess the database still likes the over.
Last week, the 49ers fans took over the Jags stadium and had quite the party in Jax. Falcons fans don't travel well, do they? I'm not excited about it, but I took the Jaguars +2 -108

Also of note, the Database has an issue, with Falcons/Jags showing as opponents the past two weeks.

q3Gz83q.png

[Riderx]

Omar,

I've learned that I can't use the normal sdql shortcuts yet as we're used to...don't know why but it's true...completely different #'s when I do. Ex: "p:OT=0" is not the same as "p:overtime=0". So be careful when running a search and use the full string, no shortcuts.

Been looking at other games but a quick look at...

Home teams with 2 wins or less at home vs non-conf opp, lined between 0 to +2.5:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=week%3E...o%3Aconference

4-0 s/u & ats
&
2-2 o/u

&

Road favs of less than -3.5 off scoring 0 points, now vs non-div opp:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=p%3Apoi...%20line%3E-3.5

0-3 s/u & ats
&
1-1-1 o/u...the most recent in 2012 was a complete blowout loss...losing 14-33 w/a a total of 47

[Riderx]

And I don't think the box score stats are all in...Ex: SF had a TOP of 38:22, but Jags do not show up as p:H and po:time of possession>2220...

...so we still have some issues...

Here's another...SF rushed 42 times last week...

with the shortcut H instead of Home...

Any AFC team at H w/a line between 3 to -3 vs non-conf opp., team's previous opp. had 40+ rushes:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=p%3AH%2...o%3Aconference

4-0 s/u & ats
&
0-3-1 o/u

but, string Home instead of H:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=p%3AHom...o%3Aconference

21-18 s/u & ats
&
16-22-1 o/u

A whole different story...this time H works but Home doesn't...as you see Away teams also...

[Riderx]

Maybe this is correct...

Road favs off a TNF home game they lost s/u by at least -21pts:

http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=p%3Amar...3AH%20and%20AF

2-0 s/u & ats
&
2-0 o/u

Road teams scored 41 & 41

lean: Falcons -1'...Over 45'...Falcons 1st-Half...Falcons TT Over

[Thomas]

John I've noticed little inconsistencies with the new database as well, for example back at killer you could use H or home and on the new site you can use Home or H but not home and get different results. I'm sure Gambrinus is working out little kinks like this in this beta testing stage, lots of work I'm sure and we have to be careful with what we're seeing in some instances

[omar]

Tenny +7 at New England

Give the Patriots 4 turnovers and they'll kill ya, just like Atlanta found out last week. The Patriots dominated on defense, but the offense converted only 4 of 12 on third down, and managed only one TD. Their victory was easy last week, and that's 5 straight wins for the Patriots, both ATS and SU.

Only two other teams this season have strung together 5 straight ATS. Both lost SU the next week.

In week 8, Arizona -6.5 lost SU at home to Green Bay. No shame there.
In week 9, Dallas -9.5 lost SU at home to Denver. That was a shit show.
Here in week 12, the Patriots -7 are at home vs. the Titans.

Tenny is fresh off their own week 11 shit show, a 13-22 home loss to the Texans. Were the Titans looking past the Texans with the Patriots on the horizon? Maybe, but now that the Titans have reached week 12 the matchup doesn't look very good. Titans' roster is banged up with 10+ guys either out or questionable.
https://www.tennesseetitans.com/team/injury-report/

Like the spot for the Titans, as I'm likely getting some line value, However, unless Mac Jones melts down and starts making terrible rookie mistakes for the Patriots, I can't see how the Titans pull the upset.

Patriots teasers and ML parlay type things is how I'm betting this one. You?

[Chamblin]

[omar]

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati -3.5

The Bengals might sweep the Steelers? Party like it's 2009?

Carson Palmer told me to back Cincy. The Bengals offensive line will protect Burrow. Steelers D is no joke, but Mixon, Chase, Boyd find the cracks.

Love the Bengals here.

[Thomas]

Actually there was 4 teams in that spot omar with 6 instances of coming in with 5 ats wins if you count Dallas who were in that spot 3 times, Packers, Titans, Cards and Cowboys if I did that right

S(ATSW@team and season, N=5)=5 and season=2021

http://www.gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=S(A...n%3D2021%20%0A

3-3 su and 2-4 ats both spread wins were the Cowboys

7.5 is a lot of points I'm thinking and teasing and ml would make me feel better about betting the Pats. That said they are looking good right now