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If I have time, this is usually how I start cappin' a game:
Best example I can give for this week is teams that won ats by more than +20pts in their previous match-up vs current opponent. Then try to whittle down into blocks of situations. Most of the time I just don't have the time to do this as I'm just a regular workin' stiff, but hopefully it clarifies a lot of my extremely small sample sizes.
Going back to the start of the d'b in '89 (what the younger generation refers to as "the 19th century"), teams in any re-match that wons ats by more than +20pts:
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats%20margin%3E20
547-450-2 s/u
&
478-503-18 ats
That's one hell'uva sample size to start with, as there are 999 games already played & we have 4 this week:
SF on the road at Cincy on Sun
KC at home vs Vegas...on Sun
Wash at home vs Dal...on Sun
Ariz at home vs LAR...on Mon
3 DIV re-matches & 1 Non-Conf
The WFT actually qualifies as a back-to-back won ats by more than 20pts, as they swept Dallas last season, going 2-0 & outscoring the Cowboys 66-19. Teams off B-B ats wins by more than 20pts vs opp:
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats...%20margin%3E20
38-21 s/u
&
33-26 ats
...but Wash is a home dog! WTF?
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats...E20%20and%20HD
1-2 s/u
&
1-2 ats
&
2-1 o/u
...but none of the games were Divisional games... *****Of note: The WFT was 1 of those 3, losing s/u 27-43 vs NOrl***** Keep that high score in the back of your mind.
One problem we have with the Dal/Wash re-match is this: Out of those 999 games, their are 0 games in which a div home dog after week 12 won ats by more than 20pts in the previous season:
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats...DIV%20and%20HD
...until now...that kinda' sucks...so, gotta' attack this game in a different manner. Come back to that game later.
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Because time is a factor, I'm gonna' jump ahead instead of going step by step...
On the Raiders/Chiefs re-match...out of those 999 games, their is only 1 HF on Sun between weeks 12 to 17 w/a total more than 45 vs a div opp they won ats by more than 20pts earlier in the same-season & team is off a home fav game:
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats...d%20total%3E45
big fav of -14 lost s/u 17-20
lean: Raiders +10...Raiders m/l
gotta' take a break but now that I found a reason to give the Raiders a damn good hard look, gonna' attack this game as much as possible...
...back in a bit
Best example I can give for this week is teams that won ats by more than +20pts in their previous match-up vs current opponent. Then try to whittle down into blocks of situations. Most of the time I just don't have the time to do this as I'm just a regular workin' stiff, but hopefully it clarifies a lot of my extremely small sample sizes.
Going back to the start of the d'b in '89 (what the younger generation refers to as "the 19th century"), teams in any re-match that wons ats by more than +20pts:
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats%20margin%3E20
547-450-2 s/u
&
478-503-18 ats
That's one hell'uva sample size to start with, as there are 999 games already played & we have 4 this week:
SF on the road at Cincy on Sun
KC at home vs Vegas...on Sun
Wash at home vs Dal...on Sun
Ariz at home vs LAR...on Mon
3 DIV re-matches & 1 Non-Conf
The WFT actually qualifies as a back-to-back won ats by more than 20pts, as they swept Dallas last season, going 2-0 & outscoring the Cowboys 66-19. Teams off B-B ats wins by more than 20pts vs opp:
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats...%20margin%3E20
38-21 s/u
&
33-26 ats
...but Wash is a home dog! WTF?
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats...E20%20and%20HD
1-2 s/u
&
1-2 ats
&
2-1 o/u
...but none of the games were Divisional games... *****Of note: The WFT was 1 of those 3, losing s/u 27-43 vs NOrl***** Keep that high score in the back of your mind.
One problem we have with the Dal/Wash re-match is this: Out of those 999 games, their are 0 games in which a div home dog after week 12 won ats by more than 20pts in the previous season:
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats...DIV%20and%20HD
...until now...that kinda' sucks...so, gotta' attack this game in a different manner. Come back to that game later.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Because time is a factor, I'm gonna' jump ahead instead of going step by step...
On the Raiders/Chiefs re-match...out of those 999 games, their is only 1 HF on Sun between weeks 12 to 17 w/a total more than 45 vs a div opp they won ats by more than 20pts earlier in the same-season & team is off a home fav game:
http://gimmethedog.com/NFL?q=P%3Aats...d%20total%3E45
big fav of -14 lost s/u 17-20
lean: Raiders +10...Raiders m/l
gotta' take a break but now that I found a reason to give the Raiders a damn good hard look, gonna' attack this game as much as possible...
...back in a bit
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