No clue week 3

[Riderx]

Coming off a terrible week...blah...shakin' that sh*t off & gettin' this thread started now. Just makin' notes & everything is open for discussion. The ultimate goal is to win. Having to adjust my sights on these prime donna players & teams that don't put in the work in the offseason & don't play in the preseason. Afraid to get hurt. Well, they're gettin' hurt anyways. And we get a watered down version of what the NFL used to be. It's an un-brave New World.

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Could we see a massive upset in week 3? I was lookin' at the 'ol Taxi system & made a few adjustments. Any non-div road fav between -7.5 & -15.5, team allowed 10pts or less last 2 games while winning each s/u by more than 17pts:

KillerSports.com

2-2 s/u,,,by -3, 1, 1 & -13
&
0-4 ats...by -14, -10', -9 & -21'
&
4-0 o/u...3, 7, 4' & 10'

scores of: 24-27, 24-23, 25-24 & 20-34

the 2 - 1pt wins s/u came by 4th-qtr shutouts of 14-0 & 12-0

*****the road favs committed an avg of 3.8 TO/game...Dallas has 0 TO's in the 1st 2 games

rushing yards have been virtually nonexistent as they avg'd 64.0 vs 69.8 ry/gm

Giving a real hard look at Zona+12, Zona m/l & Over 43

Thoughts?

[Thomas]

The original taxi system is actually a go this week John 3-20 ats

p:points>=30 and pp:points>=30 and po:points<=10 and ppo:points<=10 and NDIV and playoffs=0

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Play against Dallas on Arizona

Wow playing against those red hot Cowboys will be a leap of faith

I can whittle it down 1-14 ats by back fitting the total

p:points>=30 and pp:points>=30 and po:points<=10 and ppo:points<=10 and NDIV and playoffs=0 and 46>total>36


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21

or to 0-7 ats with this

p:points>=30 and pp:points>=30 and po:points<=10 and ppo:points<=10 and NDIV and playoffs=0 and 44>total>36

https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

[Riderx]

Hey Tom,

Just the road teams in the original system: KillerSports.com

0-10 ats

Yeah...massive leap of faith, but maybe a good sign is huge consensus on Dal- across the board.

[Thomas]

Nice Rider not sure why I didn't notice that, lol. Getting 12 and maybe more points will make this bet a lot less painful to place though if one is considering it

[Riderx]

This kinda' goes along with rolltide's post. Teams on short rest that won last game s/u by less than 7 while scoring more than 14pts in the 4th-Qtr:

KillerSports.com

6-0 o/u...Over 44 NYG/SF

funny thing is, Dal at home vs Wash on T'day was 3 of the 6

all 6 - 4th-Qtrs had scoring of 17+pts each

[Michelangelo]

"un-brave" new world

Ain't that the truth, John. Bud Light goes trans (I had to switch after about 40 years). And Pro Football goes to cartoon big helmets with couch cushions for padding.

The new player protecting rules have made it impossible to ever see a 7-6 game again. I used to love those games more than any other.

[Michelangelo]

Anybody ever hear from Dave (Taxi)? Last I heard he was in Biloxi. But that was a loooong time ago.

The guy was way ahead of his time.

[Riderx]

It's been at least over a decade...maybe even more than 15 years(?) since we heard from Dave (Taxi)...like you said, a long time ago. I think Thomas tried to contact him but never heard back.

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What's spooky is I see a massive consensus on SF-...81%. Barkley's out & the line only moved a hook, to -10'. But here's something else to go along with the 9'ers. Dogs of more than +7 w/a total of 54 or less, on short rest, team scored more than 28pts & had more than 20 first downs last game:

KillerSports.com

0-11 ats...against NYG+

[dollars]

Love it Rider...

[Chamblin]

[Riderx]

Spent way too mcuh time on the Dal/Ariz game, costing time on the other games. Even though the Cowboys might blowout the Cards, I still like them +12'. They fight. And as crazy as it sounds, they could be 2-0 right now as they had the lead after the 3rd-Qtr in both games against Wash & NYG, only to score 0pts in both 4th-Qtrs. Do I think Dallas loses? No. But anything is possible in this new NFL.

Dallas has dominated the first 2 games. Time-of-possession, number of rushes + passes (plays), 0 turnovers vs 3.5 takeaways/game, etc...

But the loss of Treyvon Diggs is huge.

Anyways, here's a look at all the road favs of more than -10 w/o any bye weeks, teams avg'd more than 65 plays/game L2 & avg'd more than 34 minutes TOP/game L2:

KillerSports.com

6-0 s/u & 5-1 ats

but, any of those teams that avg'd less than 375 yards/game:

KillerSports.com

1-0 s/u but 0-1 ats...24-23 w/a 4th-Qtr comeback

[Riderx]

Week 3 NFC road dogs with 0 wins, team avg's more than 60 plays/game L2 (passes+rushes), opp off a s/u win as a road dog:

KillerSports.com

3-1 s/u
&
4-0 ats

Panthers+5
&
Panthers m/l

[Riderx]

Definite rain showers...96%...with winds 13mph

Week 3 home teams w/a total <=37, team avg'd less than 15 comp/game L2 & is off a road game had a TOP of less than 25min:

KillerSports.com

2-0 s/u & ats...dog or fav
&
0-2 o/u

Jets+2'
&
Jets m/l
&
Under 36

[Riderx]

"Hold your nose & grab your sac"

Week 3 road teams that have lost at least 8 in-a-row, now vs opp off a s/u win as a road fav:

KillerSports.com

2-0 ats...Bears+12'

[bleeker]

add to taxi system ..

p:S2 >=17 (scored >=17 at half)
total <=48


0-17 (-9.82)


also sticking to favorites eliminates 3 close calls (avg margin 1.7/gm)


https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++



ari +13