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Cool. I will starting next week.
That was excellent work you did, Glenn, to get to that easy Under last night.
That was excellent work you did, Glenn, to get to that easy Under last night.
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thanks mich
start off with this..
week 6
winless teams
opponent >=1 win
away
dogs >=10
p: fumbles 1-3
not home past 2+ games
12-0 (10.71)
seems especially effective when 11+ dogs
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
car + 14.5 <<
Last edited by bleeker; 10-14-2023, 07:28 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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at line >=11 and exclude the ridiculous 26 pt dog these teams are 4-3 straight up with 2 of the 3 losses by < a field goal
even the other loss the opponent put up only 13 pointsLast edited by bleeker; 10-14-2023, 06:09 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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t: bal
po: pit
p: away loss
wk 5-12
p: same or more TO than pit
dog <=9 or fav
__________
t: team
po: previous opp
p: previous
____________
0-5 o/u (-14.20)
smallest 7
3 games they were favorites were the biggest margins..smallest under by 16 pts..avg under by 17.67 pts !
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
bal under 42.5 <<
Last edited by bleeker; 10-14-2023, 07:28 PM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Hey Glenn, if you just do non-conf opp:Originally posted by bleeker View Post
KillerSports.com
3-0 s/u...on Car+ & a shot on the m/l
note: the road dogs (Car) dominated the ground game, rushing for an avg of 164.0 yds/gm, almost as much as their pass yds/gm. And the home team (Mia) avg'd 2.7 t/o per game.
Also, winless non-conf road dogs in week 6 & game #6, off being a dog of more than +7:
KillerSports.com
2-1 s/u
&
3-0 ats
the only s/u loss by -3 in OT, although the lines & totals are skewed. We might get one h*ll'uva battle in SOBE.
BOL...
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thanks john
see what you're talking about with the run game and turnovers..also like on the 1st one how spaced out the sample is and the latest one is by far the largest margin..only thing that would bother me if I were using it as a primary would be how far out of range the total is ..i'm big into both line and total being within the sample range as you've probably noticed ..really is amazing how the lines are almost identical over that that time span_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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the ultimate little pressure situation..your season was most likely over going into the week before and now there are no questions about it..on the road away from the pissed off fans .. go for it !_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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Originally posted by bleeker View Post
avg side and total dead on with the numbers today and there were no ranges..just that bal was a favorite
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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adding to bleeker's query
wins = 0 and line > 6 and A and (week = 6 or week > 10) and 5 > p:fumbles > 0 and site streak != 2 and tA(TY) > 2138-25-0 (-5.64, 24.2%) 30-2-1 (6.09, 93.8%) avg line: 11.7 +6: 31-2-0 (93.9%) -6: 17-15-1 (53.1%) +10: 31-2-0 (93.9%) -10: 10-22-1 (31.2%) 17-15-1 (-0.26, 53.1%) avg total: 41.8 +6: 13-20-0 (39.4%) -6: 21-11-1 (65.6%) +10: 6-27-0 (18.2%) -10: 26-7-0 (78.8%) 26.3 103.5 32.1 193.6 18.0 1.7 3.1 5.8 4.1 4.8 18.0 29.1 129.5 33.5 239.0 21.6 1.7 5.6 8.6 3.7 5.7 23.6 Oct 15, 2023 view Sunday 6 2023 Panthers Dolphins away 14.5 47.5 Comment
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team: min
opp: chi
away fav 2-5
p:points >7
0-4 o/u (-13.88)
all double digit unders
however don't like other things..
1) 2 monday games
2) earliest one probably 1st after 9/11
3) covid season
positive sunday games biggest margins
in a small sample,for me, that's too many outside things but overall positive info for the under
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++Last edited by bleeker; 10-15-2023, 09:25 AM._______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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totals:
3-38 ou (1-0) = NE/LVR u (11+ loss as fav with few 1st down)
3-44 ou (0-0) = PHI/NYJ u (away fav off away vs turnover prone team)
8-57 ou (2-1) = CLE/SF u, NE/LVR u (after fav bad loss with few 1st down)
7-42 ou (0-0) = NE/LVR u (grass after blowout loss and 3 straight fewer passing yard games)
ATS:
23-3 (0-3 ytd yikes) = on ARI ((away big dog, high total, after 3+ turnovers. 3 losses were by 0.5, 0.5, 2.5 points ATS)
23-1 (0-1) = on NYG (same one NYG were in last week)
34-7 (1-0) = on HOU (dog<7 vs opp covered by 31+ last game)
73-10 (1-1) = on NE (on away grass after scoring 0-9 with <124 rushing yd)
68-29 (1-0) = on TB (opp team covered by 8.+ as 7+ fav and won turnover margin)Comment
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monday
week 5-8
home dog
op: didn't have >= 4 less TO's
2010
2-15-1 o/u (-8.67)
10 years ago ..mnf (week 6 also) .. lac almost identical line/total went under by 22 pts
https://killersports.com/nfl/query?_...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
lac under 50.5
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( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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min qualifies this upcomining monday with above system..side and total right about at the mean and this seems to be a good spot for avg margins on both_______________________________________________
( ) in football and baskets is avg ats or ou margin..baseball it's avg odds and run differential for sides and totals..winners and late scratches usually not recognized in the horse thread but on occasion will mention.. always double check race and horse # if you play .. I do lose a lot more races than I win.. playing in advance, late odds moves and high takeout very hard to overcome .. derby future opinion post 3713 on page 149 (horse plays)
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