NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

[TheGame]

Bettors Finally Beat Books on NFL Season’s Third Sunday
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS -- Hooray for the bettors!

After getting buried by the sports books on the first two Sunday’s of the NFL season, the betting public dug in and gained some traction with their top selections in Week 3 – finally showing a collective profit – as six of their top eight selections covered the spread. It wasn’t a big enough win to recoup their losses from the previous two weeks, but it was a positive sign that at least the NFL and sports books can be beaten.

“It’s not a ‘big loser’ for us in terms of being enormous,” said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook executive director Jay Kornegay, “I mean, it’s not like I’m going to lose any sleep over it, but it was a pretty good jab in the gut.”

Last Sunday, bettors lost six of their seven key games. This Sunday, they won their first five big selections until losing momentum with losses in two of their key three late games.

“The Cowboys, Saints, Colts and Bengals secured our loss,” said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. “The Raiders and Cardinals saved it from being a disaster.”

The Cardinals, 23-14 win as 3-point home underdogs to the 49ers saved just about every book in town from experiencing one those ’Black Sundays’ that happen every couple of years. Until that point, everything went the bettors’ way, such as the Cowboys erasing a 21-point deficit in St. Louis to cover, and the Ravens kicking a game-ending field goal to cover the 1.5-point spread in a 23-21 win. Then there was New Orleans getting a late touchdown to cover 10.5 points in a 20-9 home win over Minnesota.

The perfect storm was brewing through the 10 early games, and the books needed some relief.

“The Cardinals with their backup quarterback (Drew Stanton) actually saved our day,“ said Kornegay. “Yes, the outright win by the Cardinals saved us from having long payout lines at 4:30 p.m (PT). It was basically a two-teamer in the afternoon with the majority of our crowd having Seattle and San Francisco, and if they only had one, it was Seattle. But paired together, and both coming in, that would have been a big one. We had to have one of those sides lose for us”

At the beginning of the day, the Seahawks weren’t included as one of those public teams, but the liability on them grew throughout the day, as small parlay bettors laid the 5 points in the Super Bowl rematch. Seattle scored a touchdown in overtime

“The Seahawks win punched us pretty good,” said Kornegay. “(The public) loaded up on them when that second rush of bettors came for the 1 p.m. (PT) games. There were only three games to choose from, and that was the one most were unified with.”

The local sports books in neighborhoods off the Strip appear to have taken the biggest blow of the day because their clientele play the most parlays. And despite Arizona saving just about every book from having an epic losing day, the nightcap – where popular Carolina was a 3-point home favorite against the Steelers – put a few shops in an uneasy risk situation.

“Everyone seemed to have the Saints and Cowboys as their key two-teamer in the early games (and) that gained a lot of steam with some healthy parlay payouts tied to other games,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “After the 1 p.m. (PT) games were over, and I saw the situation (risk) we were in, I just wanted to cut the losses on the day and try to get to an equal four-way loss. I don’t want carry-over to Monday, so let’s just call it a day, cut our losses to a minimal amount and start over next week.”

The Steelers’ 37-19 win helped the books, and some shops, like MGM Resorts, were able to break even on the day because of the upset. They also fared very well against sharp bettors who tend to always be on the opposite side of public opinion.

Overall, favorites went a modest 8-6 against the spread, with the popular OVER occurring in only half the games. However, in the games the public jumped all-in with, the favorites went 6-2 ATS, which included the Colts (-7) winning 44-17 at Jacksonville and the Bengals (-6.5) beating Tennessee, 33-7, at home.

“It was a rough day, but not the type that is rough enough to give back what we won in either of the first two Sundays,” said Osborne, who did mention he was pleased bettors got some money back after the past two weeks.

It’s back to the drawing board for Week 4, but unlike this past week, bettors will have a little extra swagger in their step and a little more money in their pocket. Week 4 should see a high handle because of it despite six teams having byes.

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Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

NFL Betting Recap - Week 3
VegasInsider.com

Biggest Favorite to Cash: New Orleans (-9.5) defeated Minnesota, 20-9 to pick up their first win and cover of the season.

Biggest Underdog to Cash: Oakland (+14) lost New England, 16-9 but still managed to cover. The Raiders held the Patriots to less than 300 yards, but a potential game-tying touchdown in the final minute was nullified due to holding penalty.

Biggest Underdog to Win Outright: Kansas City (+200) cruised past Miami without Jamaal Charles, 34-15 to easily cash as 5.5-point road favorites and grab their first victory.

Line Moves

The Bills, Packers, and Jaguars all received money on Sunday morning, but none of those three teams covered. Buffalo closed as 2.5-point home favorites, but suffered its first loss of the season in a 22-10 setback to San Diego. Green Bay fell to 1-2 with a 19-7 defeat at Detroit as one-point underdogs, the second poor offensive performance on the road for the Packers. The money on the Giants was dead-on, as New York closed as one-point favorites in a rout of previously unbeaten Houston.

NFC rules

The NFC faced the AFC in only two games on Sunday afternoon, but the Giants and Seahawks each took care of business at home. New York beat Houston, 30-17 for its first victory, while Seattle needed overtime to stave off Denver in a Super Bowl rematch, 26-20.

Undefeated (3-0)

Arizona, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia all captured home victories to remain unbeaten. The Eagles failed to cover as 4-point favorites against the Redskins, as that line was as high as seven earlier in the week.

Winless (0-3)

Jacksonville, Oakland, Tampa Bay. The Raiders looked the best out of these three squads with their cover at New England. Jacksonville was blown out from the beginning against Indianapolis, who was trying to avoid an 0-3 start as well. Tampa Bay may be the worst team in football, barely competing in Thursday's 56-14 defeat at Atlanta.

Favorites Seize the Day

The favorites performed well in the early kickoffs, posting a 7-3 ATS record, including the Bengals, Cowboys, Ravens cashing as public plays.

The late games saw the Chiefs and Cardinals take home the cash as underdogs, while road favorites went 3-1 SU/ATS with the 49ers the lone away 'chalk' to lose.

Totals

The early games were even split through the first 10 contests, while the 'under' went 2-1 in the late games.

The Chiefs scored a meaningless touchdown in the final seconds at Miami to cash the 'over' of 43 in a 34-15 victory.

The highest-scoring game of the day took place in Philadelphia with the Eagles holding off the Redskins, 37-34 on a 50 total. The first half total of 26 easily hit as Philadelphia led Washington at halftime, 21-20.

The Saints' defense was shredded in the first two losses at Atlanta and Cleveland, but New Orleans won a low-scoring affair over Minnesota, 20-9 to hit the 'under' of 49.5.

The Ravens kicked the game-winning field goal to go 'over' the total of 43 in a 23-21 victory at Cleveland.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

NY GIANTS (1 - 2) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 9/25/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-82 ATS (-36.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games
NY Giants are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Washington is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against NY Giants

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Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

NFL Week 4

Giants (1-2) @ Redskins (1-2) — Only once in their last eight visits here have Giants lost by more than a point; teams split last six series games, after Giants had won previous six. Big Blue is 11-7 in last 18 games as a road dog; they swept Skins 24-17/20-6 LY; they ran ball for 193 yards, passed for 226 in win over Houston last week; they forced first three turnovers of season- their TD drives were 83-2-29 yards, which is how upsets happen. Washington scored 75 points (nine TDs on 24 drives, 5.4 ppd in red zone) in Cousins’ two starts; he threw for 427 yards in Philly last week. Redskins are 14-29 on 3rd down in Cousins’ two starts; they're 5-4 in last nine games as a home favorite. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread so far this year.

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Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

New York Giants and Washington Redskins kick-off week four action at FedEx Field Thursday night. The Giants' offense finally kicking in this past week defeated Houston 30-17 as Eli Manning did not turn the ball over while completing 21 of 28 passes for 234 yards with two touchdowns. Rashad Jennings logged career highs in both rushing attempts (34), rushing yards (176) with one major. As for Washington, despite a 37-34 setback in Philadelphia there were plenty of positives for the squad in the loss. Kirk Cousins in his first start replacing injured RG III tossed 427 yards for three touchdowns. Redskins' run stop unit held Eagles to 54 rushing yards on the day and reigning rushing champion LeSean McCoy to just 22 yards. A couple of interesting NFL betting trends. Giants have struggled cashing tickets vs a division opponent in September posting a 1-3-1 ATS while Redskins have thrived in the situation going 4-1 ATS last five, 6-2 ATS last eight. Giants have been poor bets last 13 away posting a 4-9 ATS mark and hit the field 2-5-1 ATS L8 on the road as underdogs of 3.5 or less. Redskins enter 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points and have a prefect 4-0 ATS stretch going in week-four. New York won and cover both meetings last year but remain a cash draining 3-5 ATS last eight encounters with Washington.

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Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

The Bills have struggled against the pass this season allowing 267.3 yards/game with 5 TD's but catch a break this week in Houston which has inconsistent X-Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick taking snaps. With Arian Foster the heart and soul of the Texans' offense questionable for Sunday's game the Bills have a great shot at coming out with their third victory of the season. Bills 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, on a 6-2 ATS stretch after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in September are worth a second look.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

The Philadelphia Eagles an undefeated 3-0 SU/ATS on the season are getting little respect opening 4.5 point road underdogs. Nick Foles one of the most efficient QB's in the league tossing 978 yards, 6 TD's should be able to shred 49ers' shaky pass defense that has given up 6 passing majors the past two games. Add a solid ground game (108.7 RYG) to the mix lead by LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles this is a good spot for Chip Kelly's troops. Eagles are 6-3 ATS on the road since Kelly took over including a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs of 4.5 or less. Take the points, Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips into San Francisco, 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

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Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

Giants at Redskins
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

It’s seems like a battle of last-place teams getting together in Washington on Thursday night, but the winner of the Giants/Redskins game is back to 2-2 and right in the NFC East race. The Eagles have rallied for three victories to start 3-0, but have a tough trip to San Francisco on Sunday, while the Cowboys are short home underdogs to the Saints looking for their third straight win. Now, New York and Washington are trying to show its worth in the NFC East at the quarter mark of the season.

The Giants finally broke through the win column in last Sunday’s 30-17 victory over previously unbeaten Houston as one-point home favorites. New York dominated in spite of losing a fumble at the Houston 10-yard line in the first quarter, while botching a field goal attempt early in the second quarter. But, the Giants scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the first half to take a 14-0 advantage and never look back. New York got its running game going as Rashad Jennings rushed for 176 yards and a touchdown after racking up just 110 yards in the first two losses to Detroit and Arizona.

The Redskins have been up and down through three weeks of the season, starting with a 14-3 defeat to the Texans as short road underdogs. Washington turned it around in its home opener by routing Jacksonville, 41-10 as five-point favorites, while racking up 449 yards of offense. However, the team lost quarterback Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury as Kirk Cousins stepped up to throw for 250 yards and two touchdown passes.

Cousins remains the starter at quarterback for Washington until Griffin is healthy, as the Redskins scored just one touchdown in 13 drives with the former Baylor star under center. In last week’s loss to the Eagles, Cousins put up a career-best 427 yards passing, but the Redskins couldn’t hold onto a 17-7 lead in a 37-34 setback at Lincoln Financial Field. Washington covered as four-point underdogs thanks to a Roy Helu touchdown run with 4:16 left to get within the number, while the ‘over’ of 50½ easily hit.

The Giants have owned this series since 2008, winning nine of the past 12 meetings with the Redskins. Last season, New York swept the two-game set, with both victories coming in the final month. Tom Coughlin’s team picked up a 24-17 triumph as one-point favorites at FedEx Field in Week 13 despite accumulating just 286 yards of offense. Three weeks later, the Giants salvaged the regular season finale in a 20-6 rout of the Redskins at Met Life Stadium as 3½-point favorites. Prior to 2013, Washington covered the previous five meetings, while the Redskins were last listed as a home favorite over New York in 2007, a 24-17 defeat as 3½-point ‘chalk.’

Primetime games have been an ‘over’ bettors’ dream this season, going 8-2 to the ‘over.’ On Thursday night games, the ‘over’ is 2-1, including the Falcons trouncing the Buccaneers last week, 56-14 on a 47 total. All three home favorites have easily covered in Thursday night action as the Seahawks, Ravens, and Falcons have all won by double-digits, while limiting opponents to a combined 36 points.

Since October 2008, the Redskins own a 5-11 ATS record as a home favorite, dating back to the dreaded Jim Zorn era. Making that number a little more relevant to what the roster currently looks like, Washington is 5-3 ATS since the start of 2012 in this role. The last two seasons have been a major difference against division opponents, as the Redskins went 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS inside the NFC East in 2012, while going backwards in 2013 with an 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark.

The Giants were blown out in the season opener at Detroit, but New York has cashed in 12 of its past 20 games in the role of a road underdog since 2011. Last season, the Giants won two of three road games against NFC East foes, while posting a 5-3 SU/ATS record in its previous eight away contests within the division.

Washington is currently listed as a 3½-point favorite at most books, while the total is set between 45½ and 46. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST from FedEx Field and can be seen on CBS and the NFL Network.

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Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

NFL Week 4

Dolphins (1-2) vs Raiders (0-3) (London) — Must-win game for Miami QB Tannehill or off to bench he goes, as Fish have bye on deck; Miami scored 10-15 points in pair of 19-point losses last two weeks- they’re 9 for last 31 on 3rd down, 4-9 as a favorite under Philbin. Oakland scored 14-14-9 points in 0-3 start with rookie QB Carr under center; they didn’t have takeaway in last two games (-5), are 12-16 as underdog under Allen. Expect Miami to run more after dropping back 100 times last two games, with 41 runs. Dolphins won 10 of last 12 series games, winning last four by average score of 34-15- winning side scored 33+ points in five of last six series games. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional favorites are 1-5.

Packers (1-2) @ Bears (2-1) — Green Bay covered once in last seven games where spread was 3 or less points; they won eight of last nine series games, winning last four visits here, by 10-8-7-5 points, but Pack’s OL is struggling- they ran ball for 78.7 ypg in 1-2 start, gaining total of just 478 yards in two road losses. Don’t forget Pack also trailed Jets 21-3 in home opener, before rallying. Bears failed to cover last three games as a home underdog; they outscored foes 44-15 in second half of three games, winning two of three despite losing field position in all three games. Chicago used stingy red zone defense (16 points/six trips) to steal win in Swamp Monday night, but their secondary was beaten up pretty good. Bears are second in NFL at getting first downs (13) via penalty.

Bills (2-1) @ Texans (2-1) — Ryan Fitzpatrick was 20-33 in four years as Buffalo’s starting QB, now he goes against Bills, who won two of three visits here in series where road team won four of six meetings. Bills had huge edge in field position (14-22 yards in two wins, thanks to +4 turnover ratio; without it last week, they averaged just 4.8 ypp and had 101 penalty yards. Houston was just 2-12 on third down in Swamp last week, after being 16-29 in first two games. Foster’s hamstring is an issue; Blue had 78 yards on ground vs Giants. Buffalo is just 6-15-1 in last 22 games as a road dog, even with the win at Chicago. Texans are 1-5 in last six games as a home favorite. AFC South teams are 4-6 vs spread out of division; dogs are 8-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving an AFC East team (7-0 as underdogs).

Titans (1-2) @ Colts (1-2) — Tennessee QB Locker was banged up last week, status unknown here; Titans are 1-10 in last 11 series games, losing last five, last four by 8 or less points- they lost last six visits here, with four of six by 8+ points. Tennessee has only two TDs on 22 drives last two games, after decisive win at Arrowhead in opener; they converted 4 of 22 on third down in losses (lost field position by 7-12 yards), 7-16 in win (+7 field position). Indy got well against awful Jaguars last week; they’ve scored 31.7 ppg in 1-2 start; they’ve scored 10 TDs with only eight 3/outs. Colts outscored last two opponents 47-6 in first half. Tennessee is 25-17 in last 42 games as a road dog; Colts are 5-6 as home favorites under Pagano. All three Titan games this season stayed under total.

Lions (2-1) @ Jets (1-2) — Jets’ OC Marty Mornhinweg was 5-27 as Lions’ head coach in 2001-02; somehow he keeps getting jobs. Jets had one TD in six red zone drives in frustrating 27-19 home loss to Chicago Monday; Smith threw awful pick in end zone, threw a pick-6 on first drive and Gang Green fumbled away two punts, handing Chicago 14 points in game where Jets outgained Bears 414-257. Jets won last three series games by 17-7-3 points; Lions split four visits here, but last one was in ’06. Detroit was 21-33 on third down in its two wins, 6-15 in loss; they’ve turned ball over three times in each of last two games, but their defense outscored Pack offense 9-7 in divisional win last week. Lions are 4-8 vs spread in game after their last 12 wins; Jets are 6-2 as home underdogs under Ryan.

Panthers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1) — Steve Smith’s old team visits Charm City as lot of distractions loom in Baltimore; Panthers won 23-21 in only visit here , in ’06. Ravens are off pair of divisional wins with trip to Indy on deck; all six of their TD drives this season have been 80+ yards- they didn’t have takeaway in two of first three games, won in Cleveland despite allowing 10.9 yards per pass attempt. Panthers got manhandled at home by Steelers last week, allowing 264 rush yards; they've covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. Baltimore ran ball for 157-160 yards last two games- they have four TDs, seven FGs in last 11 red zone trips. Ravens are 6-8 in last 14 games as a home favorite. AFC North teams are 4-0 vs spread out of division; NFC South teams are 2-4.

Bucs (0-3) @ Steelers (2-1) — Tampa Bay lost OC Tedford (heart) for indefinite period, so they're without competent OC, as HC Smith is defensive guy; Bucs had three extra days to prepare after getting waxed in Atlanta, but there's been nothing good for them so far, losing at home to two backup QBs, then losing 56-14 in game where they had four takeaways (-1). Steelers didn’t have takeaway in first two games, were outscored 40-6 in second half of those games, then went to Carolina and pushed Panthers around; they’ve had problems with penalties, getting tagged for 86-75-91 yards in first three games. Pitt won eight of nine series games, winning last four, last three by 10+ points. Bucs were outscored 79-15 in losing three visits here, with last visit in ’06; they're 9-14 in last 23 games as a road underdog. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 11-16 vs spread.

Jaguars (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1) — Rookie QB Bortles gets first NFL start here, after Jags 0-3 start; since halftime of opener, Jax has been outscored 119-27, losing non-divisional road games by 17-31 points- they were outscored 51-7 in first half of last two games, 54-3 in second half of their two road games. Since 2006, San Diego has covered only three of 13 games as a double digit favorite; Chargers followed up home upset of Seattle with solid win at Buffalo; they’ve moved chains 46.7% of time on third down, won field position in all three games, by 8-14-7 yards. Loss of Mathews/Woodhead at RB means Rivers should throw ball more; Indy’s Luck was 33-43/385 against Jax defense last week. Over last 3+ years, Jaguars are 8-5 against spread as a double digit underdog.

Eagles (3-0) @ 49ers (1-2) — Niners been outscored 52-3 in second half of games; they’ve had 36 penalties for 305 yards, allowed 17 first downs via penalty, most in NFL. In come Eagles, first NFL ever to start 3-0 after trailing by 10+ points in all three games. Philly scored 30+ points in all three games, have 17 plays of 20+ yards, outscored foes 74-24 in second half of games- they’re 19-8 in last 27 games as a road underdog. 49ers have only one takeaway in last two games; they’re 15-7-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 0-1 this year. Iggles won five of last six series games, winning last four visits here in series where road team won four of last five meetings. All three 49er games this season stayed under total.

Falcons (2-1) @ Vikings (1-2) — Rookie QB Bridgewater gets first start here for Minnesota, which was outscored 50-16 in first two games without Peterson, running ball 41 times for 113 yards (ran it for 30-186 in opener with Peterson). Vikings have no takeaways in last two games; they’re 13-11 in last 24 games as a road dog. Falcons had three extra days to prep for this after crushing Bucs in Thursday nighter last week; they lost eight of last nine road games SU, are 12-7-1 as road favorites under Smith. Vikings played good defense last week, holding Saints to 20 points and two plays of 20+ yards. Atlanta won three of last four series games, won three of last four visits to Metrodome, which no longer exists.

Saints (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1) — Dallas rallied back from down 21-0 to win at St Louis last week, but if Rams gained 448 yards on them, Brees has to be licking chops as he comes home to play. NO defense held AP-less Vikings without TD last week, after allowing 37-26 points in narrow road losses in first two games; Saints lost seven of last ten road games SU, failed to cover last six games as a road favorite. Cowboys are running ball for 156.7 ypg, very strong, but they’ve also had RB lose a fumble in five straight games. Saints won eight of last nine series games, whacking Dallas 49-17 LY- they’ve won last four visits here, averaged 37.7 ppg in last three series games, in series where road team won five of last six games.

Patriots (2-1) @ Chiefs (1-2) — NE has six TDs in three games; one on blocked FG return, another on a 1-yard drive; they’ve yet to gain more than 315 yards in any game, all while racking up 322 penalty yards to start season. Luckily for them they’re +7 in turnovers, with no giveaways in last two games. Chiefs got first win last week in Miami; they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home underdogs. KC ran ball for 133-174 yards in last two games, converting 15-32 on 3rd down after going 1-12 in opening loss to Titans. Pats covered once in last seven games as road favorite. KC won five of last six series games; Patriots lost six of last seven visits here, but last visit was in ’05. Belichick was 4-0 vs Reid when Reid was in Philly, including close Super Bowl win.

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Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 4
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3.5, 41)

Bills’ rushing attack vs. Texans’ tackling troubles

The Bills could have the most dynamic run game in the NFL. Buffalo has two proven playmakers in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson and a run-capable QB in E.J. Manual, who can break off big gains on the ground as well.

Sure, they only rank 11th overall with 131 rushing yards per game, but Buffalo was forced to abandon the run after falling behind early to San Diego in Week 3. The Bills rushed 33 times in each of their first two games but handed it off only 22 times versus the Chargers, still running for almost four yards per carry.

Houston was bowled over by the Giants’ makeshift backfield for 193 yards in Week 3’s 30-17 loss. The Texans defense allowed 131 rushing yards versus Washington and 101 yards on the ground to Oakland the weeks before and is coughing up 5.2 yards per attempt – second worst in the NFL.

Houston’s defense relies on turnovers but that can often lead to poor tackling – with players trying to strip the carrier – and guys getting out of position while trying to make a play on the ball. On top of what Buffalo can do on the ground, Spiller and Taylor can do damage on short passes as well, with the Bills averaging 7.55 yards after the catch – second most in the league.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-13.5, 44.5)

Jaguars’ pass rush vs. Chargers’ RB-less offense

The Chargers have had bad luck with their rushing corps early in the season, losing both Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead to injury. That leaves Donald Brown and Brandon Oliver in the Bolts backfield – two running backs not striking fear in the hearts of defenses, even if that defense belongs to the Jaguars.

San Diego has been able to dominate time of possession thanks to a balance between the run and pass – third in NFL at 34:00 – but may have no choice but to pick up the pace and pass the ball a lot Sunday. The Chargers have run the ball on 49.49 percent of their plays so far – fourth most in the league – but a drastic change in game plan could leave QB Philip Rivers vulnerable to one of the most underrated pass rushes out there.

Jacksonville sits tied for the league lead with 10 sacks heading into Week 4, including two sacks in last week’s loss to Indianapolis. While the Jaguars defense has spent the most amount of time on the field, there’s no denying talents like DE Andre Branch and DT Sen'Derrick Marks are able to crumble an offensive line and put the squeeze on opposing passers. It just sucks for the Jags that they’ve come up against three very powerful offensive clubs in the Eagles, Redskins and Colts.

Jacksonville will ignore the Bolts' run game on most downs and refuse to bite on playaction, instead teeing off on the San Diego offensive line with everything they’ve got.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-5, 50.5)

Eagles’ fantastic fourths vs. 49ers’ fourth quarter no-show

In essence, Chip Kelly’s offense isn’t about beating you in the first quarter, or even the first half. It’s about winning the fourth quarter, which is just what the Eagles have done through the first three weeks.

With its opponents sucking wind after chasing the up-tempo attack around all game, Philadelphia has outscored opponents 40-14 in the final frame. Quarterback Nick Foles has gotten off to some bumpy starts but always rights the ship in time for the victory, posting a 143.0 passer rating in the fourth quarter – tops in the NFL.

The Niners have faded in the fourth, watching wins against Chicago and Arizona slip away. San Francisco has yet to score in the fourth quarter – an insane stat - while allowing foes to hang 31 points on the board in the closing 15 minutes.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has been downright dog crap in the fourth, with a QB rating of 48.4, throwing two interceptions and getting sacked four times while boasting just 159 total yards of offense – passing and rushing – in those 45 minutes.

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3, 53)

Saints’ coaches vs. Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones

Sean Payton and Rob Ryan may not agree on everything these days (see heated sideline exchange) but they can both agree on their disdain for the Dallas Cowboys – and owner Jerry Jones. While Payton and Jones remain on “good terms”, the same can’t be said for defensive coordinator Ryan, who was unfairly fired from his job with the Cowboys two years ago.

The pair didn’t hold back when New Orleans blew away Jones’ Cowboys 49-17 as a 6-point favorite last November, improving Payton’s record to 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS against his former employer since leaving Big D for the Big Easy (wasn’t on sideline in 2012 due to suspension).

The Cowboys aren’t getting much help against the Saints – or any opponent for that matter – with rival jerseys littering the stands. Jones’ $1 billion AT&T Stadium has become a vacation destination for football fans, who gladly invade the Lone Star State to cheer on their squad. Some of the loudest cheers came from 49ers fans during Dallas’ Week 1 opener versus San Francisco.

Cowboys DT Henry Melton complained to the media this week about the lack of home-field advantage in Arlington, pleading with Dallas fans to “don’t just stay out in the parking lot, come on in.” Unless Melton is forking over $110.20 per head – the average ticket price for a non-premium seat – expect a sea of Black and Gold in Dallas Sunday night. Don't blame the fans. Blame Jerry. He's got to keep the lights on.

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Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

SNF - Saints at Cowboys
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

After a horrific opener in Week 1, Dallas (2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) returns home off of two impressive road wins to face the Saints at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

As of late Saturday afternoon, most books had New Orleans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 53.5. Gamblers can take the Cowboys on the money line for a +145 return (risk $100 to win $145).

Sean Payton's team started the season by losing a pair of heartbreakers at Atlanta and at Cleveland, allowing fourth-quarter leads to get away in both defeats. Back home at the Superdome last week, however, New Orleans got into the win column by besting Minnesota 20-9 as a 10-point home favorite.

Drew Brees completed 27-of-35 passes for 293 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Rookie wide receiver Brandin Cooks was his favorite target, and the Oregon St. product hauled in eight receptions for 74 yards. Marques Colston and Josh Hill had TD catches.

Dallas got mauled by San Francisco 28-17 to start the year, but it responded with a 26-10 win at Tennessee as a three-point underdog. DeMarcus Murray exploded for 167 rushing yards and one TD, while Tony Romo threw a TD pass and, most important, didn't throw an interception.

Dallas went into St. Louis last Sunday and quickly fell behind 21-0, with the Rams getting one score on a pick-six by cornerback Janoris Jenkins. But the Cowboys and Romo would settle down and trim the deficit to 21-10 at intermission.

Then early in the third quarter, Romo found a streaking Dez Bryant for a 68-yard scoring strike to make it a one-possession game. After both teams traded field goals, Dallas took the lead for the first time with 6:13 remaining on a 12-yard TD pass from Romo to Terrance Williams. Moments later, Bruce Irvin intercepted Austin Davis and returned it 25 yards for a score to put Dallas ahead 34-24.

St. Louis would answer with a touchdown and it got the ball back. However, another Dallas interception preserved the 34-31 victory as a 1.5-point 'chalk.' Romo connected on 18-of-23 throws for 217 yards and a pair of TD passes. Murray rushed for 100 yards and one TD.

Murray leads the NFL in rushing with 385 yards and three TDs. He is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Romo has completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 674 yards with a 4/4 TD-INT ratio. We should note, however, that three of those picks came against the 49ers in the opener.

Brees has completed 70.9 percent of his throws for 863 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio.

New Orleans has dominated Dallas over the last decade, winning outright in eight of nine head-to-head meetings. In the last 10 encounters, the Saints are 8-2 ATS against the Cowboys. The 'over' has hit in three straight and four of the last five, including last year's 49-17 win by the Saints in New Orleans.

In the aforementioned blowout, New Orleans produced 40 first downs and 625 yards of total offense. Brees threw for 392 yards and four TDs without being intercepted. Meanwhile, Romo completed just 10-of-24 throws for 128 yards.

The 'under' is 2-1 for the Cowboys, 1-0 in their only home game. Going back to last year, the 'under' is on a 5-2-1 run Dallas's last nine contests.

The 'over' is 2-1 overall for the Saints, 2-0 in its road assignments.

On the injury front, Dallas has three defensive linemen and LB Rolando McClain listed as 'questionable.' As for the Saints, CB Patrick Robinson and TE Ben Watson are question marks.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

Miami at Oakland, 1:00 ET
Miami: 36-16 ATS against AFC West division opponents
Oakland: 16-36 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games


Green Bay at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 101-69 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Chicago: 1-8 ATS off a non-conference game


Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 3-11 ATS after playing a game at home
Houston: 0-6 ATS off a road loss


Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 11-2 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games
Indianapolis: 41-23 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games


Carolina at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 20-8 ATS after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game
Baltimore: 18-3 UNDER after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite


Detroit at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 6-17 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival
NY Jets: 3-13 ATS off 1 or more straight overs


Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 22-9 ATS in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
Pittsburgh: 46-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points


Jacksonville at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Jacksonville: 5-13 ATS as an underdog
San Diego: 59-39 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread


Philadelphia at San Francisco, 4:25 ET
Philadelphia: 157-123 ATS against conference opponents
San Francisco: 18-5 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite


Atlanta at Minnesota, 4:25 ET
Atlanta: 18-38 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Minnesota: 36-17 OVER after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game


New Orleans at Dallas, 8:30 ET
New Orleans: 16-6 OVER as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Dallas: 9-2 ATS in the first half of the season


Monday, Sept. 29th


New England at Kansas City, 8:35 ET
New England: 27-12 ATS in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Kansas city: 15-33 ATS against AFC East division opponents

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

Week 4 Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Packers (-2, 51) at Bears

Week 3 Results:
The Packers have not looked sharp in two road losses to Seattle and Detroit. In last week’s 19-7 setback at Ford Field, Green Bay racked up just 223 yards of offense, while picking up just the third ‘under’ in their past 10 road contests.

The Bears put together another impressive effort on the highway, knocking off the Jets last Monday night, 27-19 as 1½-point underdogs. Chicago gained just 257 yards of offense, but returned an interception for a touchdown to improve to 4-6 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

Previous meeting: The road team won each matchup last season, including Aaron Rodgers completing a fourth down bomb to Randall Cobb to lift the Packers past the Bears at Soldier Field in the regular season finale, 33-28. Chicago benefited from Rodgers breaking his collarbone in the first matchup at Lambeau Field, as the Bears ripped the Packers as 10-point underdogs, 27-20.

What to watch for: The Packers have owned the Bears recently, winning eight of the past 10 meetings since 2009. Under Marc Trestman, the Bears have cashed the ‘over’ in six of nine games at Soldier Field, as their overtime opener against the Bills actually stayed ‘under’ the number. Since October 2012, the Packers have compiled an impressive 6-1 SU/ATS record in the last seven opportunities as a road favorite.

Panthers at Ravens (-3½, 41)

Week 3 Results:
Carolina’s 2-0 start came to a screeching halt in front of a nationally televised audience in last Sunday night’s 37-19 home setback to Pittsburgh as three-point favorites. The Panthers allowed just 21 points in their first two victories, but were burned for 264 yards rushing by the Steelers, while suffering their first regular season setback since Week 1 of 2013.

The Ravens finished off a three-game set against division foes, beating the Browns at the gun, 23-21 to push as two-point road favorites. Baltimore won the final two games after losing the opener to Cincinnati, as the Ravens have turned the ball over just once in two victories.

Previous meeting: Baltimore rolled Carolina, 37-13 as 13-point road favorites in 2010 in the pre-Cam Newton era. The Panthers had won the previous three meetings dating back to 1996, as Carolina came out victorious in its only visit to Baltimore back in 2006, a 23-21 triumph as three-point underdogs.

What to watch for: Since 2012, the Panthers have been nearly automatic in the role of a road underdog, covering eight of their past nine tries. John Harbaugh has seen plenty of success at home against NFC opponents since getting hired in 2008, winning 11 of 12 interconference contests at M&T Bank Stadium with the lone loss coming last season to Green Bay.

Bills at Texans (-3, 42)

Week 3 Results:
The Bills suffered their first loss of the season, putting up a flat effort in a 22-10 home defeat to the Chargers as short favorites. Buffalo’s defense has been pretty strong this season, but its offense racked up just 292 yards in its second ATS loss in its past nine tries at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

The Texans return home after getting routed by the suddenly-hot Giants, 30-17. Houston failed to cover for the first time in three games, while losing its first contest after victories against Washington and Oakland. The Texans need to sure up their rushing defense this week after allowing 193 yards on the ground to the Giants.

Previous meeting: Houston took care of Buffalo in an ugly 21-9 home victory in 2012 as 11-point favorites. In the loss, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 239 yards, but the Bills couldn’t get in the end zone as the former Harvard quarterback is now calling the signals for the Texans. These teams have split six matchups since Houston entered the league in 2002, as the road team has won four times.

What to watch for: The Bills were a dreadful team to back as a road underdog last season at 1-6 ATS, but Buffalo turned it around in the season opening overtime victory at Chicago as seven-point ‘dogs. Since December 2012, the Texans have been a miserable bet off a loss, posting a 1-14 SU and 5-10 ATS record, which included last season’s 14 consecutive defeats.

Lions (-1½, 44 ½) at Jets

Week 3 Results:
The Lions are great, as long as they play at home. Detroit won its second game at Ford Field by double-digits, knocking off Green Bay as a short favorite, 19-7. In two home contests, the Lions have allowed a total of 21 points, while giving up 24 points in their Week 2 setback at Carolina.

The Jets are playing their third consecutive NFC North opponent after losing to the Packers and Bears the last two weeks. New York blew a 21-3 lead at Green Bay, but fell behind early last Monday against Chicago, while never being able to get over the hump in a 27-19 loss as 1½-point favorites.

Previous meeting: New York held off Detroit in overtime at Ford Field in 2010 as 5½-point favorites, 23-20. Santonio Holmes was caught from behind on a 52-yard reception in OT, as the wide receiver nearly gave Jets’ backers a fortunate cover if he had scored a touchdown. The Lions are making their first trip to Met Life Stadium, as Detroit dropped a 31-24 decision in its previous trip to East Rutherford back in 2006.

What to watch for: Detroit split six games in the role of a road favorite last season, while the Lions are 1-6 ATS since the start of 2013 off a SU victory. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets have cashed in as a home underdog, posting a 7-4 ATS record, including outright victories last season over New Orleans and New England.

Eagles at 49ers (-5, 50)

Week 3 Results:
The Eagles have fallen behind in each of their first three games, but Philadelphia has managed to rally and win all three to start 3-0. Last week, Philadelphia outlasted Washington, 37-34 as four-point favorites, in spite of allowing over 500 yards to the Redskins. Chip Kelly’s team has trailed by double-digits in all three games, but have outscored opponents, 74-24 in the second half.

The 49ers have been the opposite of the Eagles from a second half standpoint, scoring a measly three points after halftime in three games. San Francisco was held scoreless in the final 30 minutes of last Sunday’s 23-14 defeat at Arizona as three-point favorites, dropping the Niners to 1-2 for the second straight season.

Previous meeting: San Francisco shocked Philadelphia as 9½-point road underdogs, 24-23 in 2011. Ironically, the Niners erased a 23-3 deficit in that contest, scoring three second half touchdowns to send the Eagles to 1-3 on the season. That victory by San Francisco snapped a five-game losing streak to Philadelphia dating back to 2005, which includes three wins at Candlestick Park.

What to watch for: The Niners have won seven of their past nine games off a loss, but have failed to cover in three of their previous four contests at home off a defeat. The Eagles are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in the role of a road underdog under Kelly, while Philadelphia has compiled a solid 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS record away from Lincoln Financial Field since 2013.

[TheGame]

Re: NFL Betting News And Notes. Week 4

NFL Betting News and Notes
Covers.com

Under bettors profiting when Bucs-Steelers meet

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a history of keeping the scores low. Four of the last five meetings between the two teams have gone under the total.

The Steelers will host the Bucs at Heinz Field Saturday afternoon. Pittsburgh is presently -7.5 faves with an O/U of 45 for the matchup.


Bucs have history of not covering vs. Steelers

When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Pittsburgh Steelers clash in Week 4 NFL action Sunday, there's one particular trend Bucs spread backers need to be aware of.

In the last four meetings between the two teams, the Bucs are an ugly 0-4 against the spread.

Pittsburgh is currently -7.5 favorites with the total set at 45.


Titans struggling mightily ATS

If you've been backing the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in recent games, your bank account has taken a big hit.

The Titans are a paltry 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight games. Jake Locker's team visits the Indianapolis Colts Sunday afternoon.

The Colts are currently -7.5 favorites with a total of 45.5.


Colts-Titans love going Under in Indy

The Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans have a history of participating in a lot of low-scoring games at Lucas Oil Stadium, and as a result, bettors banking on low totals during those matchups are cashing in at a rapid pace.

The Under is a scorching 8-1 in the last nine meetings between the two teams in Indy, and the Colts will once again host Jake Locker's squad Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis is presently -7.5 favorites with an O/U of 45.5


Report: Titans QB Locker out Sunday, Whitehurst in

According to a tweet from NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, Tennessee Titans quarterback Jake Locker will not play in Sunday's game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Locker will allegedly be sidelined with a wrist injury. Charlie Whitehurst is the most likely candidate to fill in for the 26-year-old University of Washington product.

Whitehurst has been a lifelong backup in the NFL, and at the age of 32 has 805 career passing yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions.

Indianapolis is currently 7.5-point faves with a total of 45.5 for the matchup.


Ravens having issues covering at home

The Baltimore Ravens have not been a good bet against the spread at M&T Bank Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Ravens backers will hope they can buck that trend when Baltimore hosts Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 NFL action Sunday.

The Ravens are currently 3.5-point faves with a total of 42.


Lions struggling to cover on the road

The Detroit Lions have been a different team away from Ford Field and if they hope to make a significant jump this season they'll have to start getting the job done on the road.

Something they haven't done going 0-4 against the spread in their last four road games dating back to last season.

The Lions head to MetLife Stadium Sunday to face the New York Jets, where Detroit is currently a 1-point road favorite.


Underdog has edge when these AFC teams meet

The Oakland Raiders and the Miami Dolphins have a long history and it is the underdog who has had the edge in this matchup, which this time gets underway at Wembley Stadium in London.

The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meeting between these two AFC foes and this time around it is the Silver and Black are the dogs.

Oakland is currently a 3.5-point dog for their neutral site game in London.


Bears ice cold ATS vs. NFC North

The Chicago Bears have historically not been a good spread play versus teams within their division.

In their last nine games against NFC North rivals, the Bears are just 1-8 against the spread. The Monsters of the Midway host their bitter rival and division opponent Green Bay Packers Sunday.

Green Bay is currently 2-point road faves with a total of 51.5.


Panthers sizzling on the Under away from home

The Carolina Panthers have been a sure thing on the road for Under bettors recently, as all five of their last five games away from home have gone Under the total.

Cam Newton's crew will be on the road yet again when they face off against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday afternoon

The Ravens are currently 3.5-point faves with a total of 42.


Bills struggle to bounce back after big loss at home

The Buffalo Bills plummeted back down to earth with a tough 22-10 loss at home to the San Diego Chargers last Sunday and the Bills have had trouble bouncing back from big home losses.

The haven't covered the spread in seven consecutive games following a double-digit loss at home.

If they want to get back on track they will have to do it on the road against Houston, where the Texans are currently listed as three-point home favorites.


Total rising in Carolina-Baltimore

The total for Sunday's Carolina-Baltimore matchup is steadily rising as kickoff approaches.

After opening at 39 early Monday at bet365.com, the line has slowly been climbing upwards. At 11:20 AST Friday it reached 41, but that's since moved to 42 as of 7:40 AST Sunday morning at the book.

There hasn't been much movement on the spread, however. The Ravens opened as 3-point home faves, which is where they currently sit.


NFC North WRs, Johnson, Marshall expected to play

A pair of super-star NFC North receivers, Detroit's Calvin Johnson and Chicago's Brandon Marshall are both expected to play Sunday.

Both Johnson and Marshall are nursing ankle injuries, but should suit up for their respective teams, according to NFL Insider Ian Rapoport.

The Lions are currently 1-point road faves at the New York Jets, while the Bears are 2-point home dogs when they host Green Bay.


Bettors loving Over in Falcons-Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings host fellow domers the Atlanta Falcons Sunday and bettors are confident that the scoreboard operator will be kept busy.

The Falcons hung 56 points on the Washington Redskins in Week 3 and have averaged 46.5 points per game in their two indoor games this season.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are one of five teams with an 0-3 Over/Under record, having been a solid banker for Under bettors. Still, Pinnacle's sources confirm that 72 percent of Totals bets are on the Over.

As far as the spread is concerned, Pinnacle Sports sources state that 53 percent of wagers are backing the Falcons (-3) while they are being supported 55 percent of the time on moneyline tickets.

"The Vikings +3 opened -105 and went as low as -125 but have since rebounded to -110," Pinnacle Sports sources tell Covers. "The majority of bets on Over has moved the Totals market in that direction."