NHL preseason

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analytics - even strength since Nov 1

Corsi T5 - FLA, CAR, CAL, BOS, COL
Corsi B5 - OTT, NYR, DET, ARI, NYI
xGF Diff T5 - FLA, MIN, BOS, TOR, CAR
xGF Diff B5 - ARI, PHI, CHI, OTT, BUF
HD SC T5 - TBL, BOS, NJD, FLA, PIT
HD SC B5 - PHI, ARI, DET, OTT, CLB
SV% T5 - CAL, WIN, VAN, TOR, CAR
SV% B5 - SEA, OTT, COL, BUF, CHI

- if Colorado can get some decent goaltending they are the team to watch
- FLA, BOS, CAR dominate the stats and are in same conference
- Philly, Zona, Ottawa, Buffalo do very little right
- Detroit punching way above their weight, likely to crash soon

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analytics for last 6 weeks (all strengths)
Fenwick top 6 = CAL, CAR, FLA, VGK, PIT, COL
Fenwick bot 6 = MTL, OTT, SEA, CLB, DET, BUF
xGD diff top 6 = FLA, CAL, CAR, VGK, PIT, WAS
xGD diff bot 6 = OTT, MTL, BUF, PHI, ARI, SEA
Scoring chances for = TOR, CAR, PIT, MIN, COL, NYR
Scoring chances vs = MTL, SEA, ARI, OTT, CHI, PHI
Save % top 6 = VAN, NYR, BOS, PIT, NYI, TOR
Save % bot 6 = NJD, ARI, OTT, COL, VGK, CHI

VGK 9 1st period overs in last 10 games, Clb 8
Bruins 8 1st period unders in last 10 games

Carolina 7 1st period wins, 3 losses in L10
Pens 7 1st period wins, just 1 loss, and 2 pushes in L10
Leafs 6 wins, just 1 loss, and 3 pushes in L10

Oilers 1 win, 1 push, 8 1st period losses
MTL and SJS both just 1 win, 3 pushes, and 6 1st period losses
Kings also just 1 1st period win with 3 losses, but 6 pushes in 1P
Detroit and Seattle both 1 win, 4 losses, 5 1P pushes

Nashville exceeded their team total 9x in L10 games
COL/MIN/NYI/STL/TOR each 8 team total overs in L10
Edmonton 7 team total unders in L10

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incredible how bad the NY Rangers have been 5 vs 5 for the past 6 weeks. Dead last in scoring chances differential, 2nd to last in Fenwich, bottom 6 in both Expected goals for and against. But #3 in save %

since late December restart 5 on 5

Fenwick T6 = FLA CAL CAR LAK BOS TOR ... B6 = ARI NYR CHI NYI DET SEA
xGF T6 = CAR FLA TOR CAL LAK LVK ... B6 = ARI CHI BUF SEA NYR MTL
xGA T6 = BOS SEA TBL NAS COL PIT ... B6 = CLB STL PHI MTL WIN NYR
SC diff T6 = CAL FLA TOR CAR COL BOS ... B6 = NYR PHI ARI MTL BUF CHI
Save % T6 = VAN NYI NYR LAK PIT CAL ... B6 = SEA NJD CLB ARI MTL BOS

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Sat tip....

I played BOS u6 -130 in the early game and would take u5.5 +100. Without 2 of their 3 on the Pasta line they can't generate chances. They scored 2 vs PIT....1 on PP and the other a terrible giveaway from Letang that gave BOS a 3-on-1. Other than that the Pens were never threatened. They they got shutout against Carolina. The only other time they allowed 4+ in b2b games the following night they gave up 1 goal. Ottawa stink but they're playing good defense...since Jan 20 they played 10 games and allowed 4+ just once and have given up just 21 goals. Only COL and CAL allowed less (19). Also in L10 Boston scored just 22 goals, fewest in NHL.

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nice prop today

Teravainen o2.5 shots -128 fanduel (game in 1 hr)
- best looking prop on the board. yesterday was the first game he failed to reach 3 shots on goal since Jan 15. From Jan 18 until last Saturday he posted 8 straight with 3+ SOG and avg of 4 SOG/game. The Flyers allow 34 shots/game which is 5th worst in NHL. He faced Philly 2x this year and had 3 SOG in both and the Canes had 40 and 36 shots. As 1st liner only his center, Aho, has a higher avg of playing time per game plus he's on 1st power play and leads team in PP points.

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SDQL is coming together as new site in beta. So a lot of my stuff is back in business:

ON home rested, opp off shutout loss and a bad team (59-20 +118% = on ARI)
ON fav off 3+ goal loss (on TOR)
ON away fav won <=2 of last 7 vs opponent won <=5 of L7 (399-280 +106% = NAS)
ON B's off 3+ win and opp not off 5+ loss (35-11 +119% = on BOS)
ON 190+ fav off 4+ goal loss (30-5 +123% = on TOR) 16-1 L17 including TB last night
VS Sens off a shutout loss (4-20 +126% = on ARI)
VS the Vegas flu (76-34 +125% = on CLB) 7-4 L11
VS after Vegas away, scored 1+, little rest with little rest coming (91-62 +114% = on CLB, NAS)
VS tighten above with dog (52-22 = on NAS)
ON 2022 fav both missed playoffs (121-56 +112% = on OTT, PHI) 15-1 L16

CLB only 1 under this year with no rest (BOS/CLB over 5.5) = avg 8.5 gpg in 6 home games
DET 7-1 ou on no rest (DET/FLA o6.5) = avg 8.12 gpg
TOR 13-3 on 2+ rest (on TOR) = avg win by 2.35 gpg
COL home off away loss (on COL) = 10-1 avg win 4.45-1.91

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NHL 3/6
UNDER Vegas won 2 of previous 4, last game heavy shots in game (7-27 ou, 2-11 ou home = LVK/OTT u6)
ON Tampa after 2+ goal win and 1-2 days rest, didn't just allow 3 goals (80-25 +120% = on TB) note: 82% ROI as -1.5 fav in this spot
VS Sens in a 3/4 (5-27 +124% = on LVK)
ON Canes 2022 non-conf (18-5 +130% = on CAR)
VS dogs on PL off away wash and 0-1 rest (71-31 +127% = on CAR -1.5)
ON PL away fav of 165-260 in 2021/22 (49-47 +165% = on TB -1.5, LAK -1.5) 72-24 +113%

note:
Sharks are 12-1 against +1.5 line after getting shutout and line <167

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I took MIN/CLB o6 -105 last night and has moved to o6.5 which is fine too. CLB are 7-1-1 ou with no rest this year, MIN are 6-1 ou L7 with no rest this season

Also put a bit on CLB +170 and more on PIT -140 as MIN and LVK are in a brutal 6/9 spot and the past 11 teams in this position are 1-10 SU

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OVER Minn on 0-1 rest (26-5 ou = MIN/CLB over)

OVER Cbus on 0 or 2 day rest (19-4-3 ou = MIN/CLB over)

OVER NJ in 1st of b2b (29-17-3 ou = NJ/WAS over) 7-1 ou L8

UNDER LVK won 2 of last 4 and 48+ shots L2 combined (8-29-3 ou = LVK/CHI under)

ON Tampa super system (40-6 +140% = on TBL) +218% -1.5

ON fav off a win with more rest that dog off a loss (70-13 +123% = on MIN, on TOR) 188% -1.5

ON away fav won 0-2 of L7 vs home that won up to 5 of L7 (392-283 +106% = on CAR) 178% -1.5

VS home fav off away, no rest (116-121 +112% = on NJD) 6-6 +111% ytd

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VS unrested home dog East vs unrested (78-50 +107% = on TBL, FLA)
VS home fav unrested off away fav (116-122 +112% = on FLA)
ON -189+ fav off 4+ goal loss (30-6 +118% = on PIT, NAS) -1.5 +175%
VS 6/9 spot (11-1 +150% = on TBL)
VS away east with south florida trip next (60-23 +120% = on NJD)
ON Pit hosting unrested with 6+ total (28-5 +129% = on PIT) -1.5 +200% ... 17-1 when line >-170 like today
VS little rest after vegas away (91-64 +111% = on NAS)
OVER MIN 0-1 rest (26-6 ou = MIN over)
OVER MTL no rest (9-1 ou = NJ/MTL over)
OVER DET no rest (9-1 ou = DET/PIT over) DET is 0-5 in last 5 unrested allowing 6-7-4-4-7 (outscored 13-28)

Tampa in b2b 3/4 4/6, NYI in b2b 3/4 4/6 6/9
FLA b2b 3/4 vs TOR b2b
MTL b2b 3/4 vs NJD b2b 4/6
MIN b2b 3/4 vs rested COL

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Pens vs Columbus Fri NHL over 6 -120
CLB is a perfect 6-0 ou this year with on 2nd of b2b games with a total <6.5 ... Avg is 9 gpg (!) and all 6 reached at least 8 goals. They are 5-20 all-time in Pittsburgh and 0-5 with no rest. Pens have won 4 straight against unrested teams at home this year with a 23-8 margin and must win to avoid playing the #1 team in NHL, Florida. CLB expected to start journeyman goalie JF Berube and goals in his other 5 starts were 10-4-9-7-10. Four of the Pens' last 7 home games reached 9 goals. No way this should be a 6 total and will take that with some funs overs of 7.5-8.5-9.5


betMGM o6 -120, heritage o6 -122

[rolltide]

Pens vs Columbus Fri NHL over 6 -120
CLB is a perfect 6-0 ou this year with on 2nd of b2b games with a total <6.5 ... Avg is 9 gpg (!) and all 6 reached at least 8 goals. They are 5-20 all-time in Pittsburgh and 0-5 with no rest. Pens have won 4 straight against unrested teams at home this year with a 23-8 margin and must win to avoid playing the #1 team in NHL, Florida. CLB expected to start journeyman goalie JF Berube and goals in his other 5 starts were 10-4-9-7-10. Four of the Pens' last 7 home games reached 9 goals. No way this should be a 6 total and will take that with some funs overs of 7.5-8.5-9.5


betMGM o6 -120, heritage o6 -122

moved to 6.5 this morning which makes more sense. got all my big bets at 6 but would take 6.5 too